http://sarjana-politik.fisip.ui.ac.id/kurikulum/politik-lingkungan-dan-sumber-daya-alam/ acch.kpk.go.

id

EKONOMI POLITIK Theguardian.com

SUMBER DAYA ALAM

Faisal Basri
8 April 2019
 Bagian I
Kerangka Konseptual
What is political economy? (1)
➢ “The original name of what is now known as
economics. The name has resurfaced in the ‘new
political economy’ that draws attention to the political
motivation of economic policies: policy-makers and
lobbyists are often more concerned with the income
distribution of their electorate than with the efficiency
effects of policies.” –Oxford Dictionary of Economics
➢ Political Economy most commonly refers to
interdisciplinary studies drawing upon economics,
political science, law, history, sociology and other
disciplines in explaining the crucial role of political
factors in determining economic outcomes.—
http://poec.athabascau.ca/what/
What is political economy? (2)

➢ A branch of the social sciences that takes as its

principal subject of study the interrelationships
between political and economic institutions and
processes. That is, political economists are interested
in analyzing and explaining the ways in which various
sorts of government affect the allocation of scarce
resources in society through their laws and policies as
well as the ways in which the nature of the economic
system and the behavior of people acting on their
economic interests affects the form of government
and the kinds of laws and policies that get made. –Paul
M. Johnson
Ekonomi dan politik sejatinya tak terpisahkan

➢ In all the political system of the world,

much of politics is economics, and most of
economics is politics. —Charles Lindblom

➢ Economics does not usefully exist apart

from politics. —John Kenneth Galbraith

➢ There is no such thing as a purely economic

issue. —Milton Friedman
 Ekonomi dan politik: pendekatan integratif

ECONOMICS POLITICS
Primary
Individual Community
Actor

Primary
Prosperity Justice
Goals

INSTITUTION Growth Stability Efficiency Freedom Social order Equity

Market FM AM FM AM FM AM FM AM FM AM FM AM

Government FG AG FG AG FG AG FG AG FG AG FG AG
 Value commitments of perspectives in
political economy

INDIVIDUAL

Modern Classical
Liberal Liberal

EQUALITY HIERARCHY

Conservative
Radical

COMMUNITY
Sistem-sistem ekonomi

Peren- Communism
canaan

Socialism

Market
Socialism
Welfare
Economy
Market
Mekanis- Capitalism
me Pasar
Kepemilikan
Swasta Negara/etatisme
Rights & types of democracy

1. Civil Rights Liberal

2. Political Rights Democracy

3. Social Rights Social

4. Economic Rights
5. Cultural Rights
Democracy
Other elements…

A Libertarian A Social Democracy is

Democracy is 1 + 2. based on all rights (1-
Plus the Elements: 5). Plus:
- Free Markets and - Social market
Private ownership. economy
- No welfare state. - Right based on welfare
state
- No power control by
the people in society. - Societal Democracy

If the people are poor, have no education = have no means

to use their rights then the rights are empty rights, have no
meaning. They have use value only if there are also societal
rights such as education to enable them to participate in
political decision making processes.
Stages of policy process
Selecting the
desired
objective

Agenda
Policy
setting/identif
assessment/
ication of
evaluation
issues

Policy Policy
implementation formulation

Policy
adoption/legit
imation
Policy formulation process

1.
Selecting the
desired
objective
5.
2.
Implementing
Identifying
the measure
the target of
and assessing
the objective
its impact

4. 3.
Designing the Determining
specific the pathway
program or to reach that
measure objective
Levels and choices
Macro-level or country analysis: at this level one can understand how the
big decisions, for example, with respect to the selection of political leaders
or the allocation of budgets, are made. Macro analysis might also consider
how the highest level political institutions function: what are the rules of
the game facing top political players? One might also expect a country’s
history to shape prevailing ideologies and ideas about how things should
work and why.
Sector-level analysis: this examines in more depth the forces shaping
policy formation and decision-making at the level of an individual sector or
industry. The more important and prominent the sector is within the
national economy, the greater one would expect the influence of national
level forces to be over decision-making within the sector.
Problem-driven analysis: this is a highly practical approach that starts
from a particular problem that needs solving and proceeds to examine all
the forces (actors and interests, ideas, institutions) that have a bearing on
it.
 Bagian II
Perubahan Struktural
 The rise and decline of Indonesian economy:
1961-2018
GDP growth, percent
15
Trendline-
10,9 polynomial
9,9
10 8,8
8,2
7,5
7,0
6,3 6,2
5,7

5
5,0 4,9 5,2
4,6
Pertamina 3,6
crisis 2,2 2,5
0
Oil price
collapse
-2,2
-5 The fall of
Old Order

-10
Economic crisis and the end
of New Order/Soeharto era
-13,1
-15

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

 -15
-10
10

-5
5

0
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
8%
1983
1984

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
long-term, 1976-2018

1995
1996
1997
7%

1998
1999
2000
GDP growth, percent

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6%

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
The declining trend of economic growth in the

5%
 Peranan sektor ekstraktif (SDA) kian susut
dalam perekonomian
GDP growth by sector, percent
Share
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018
Agriculture, forestry & fishery 4.59 4.20 4.24 3.77 3.37 3.87 3.91 12.81
Mining and Quarrying 3.02 2.53 0.43 -3.42 0.95 0.66 2.16 8.08
Manufacturing industry 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.26 4.29 4.27 19.86
Electricity and gas 10.06 5.23 5.90 0.90 5.39 1.54 5..47 1.19
Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.60 4.60 5.46 0.07
Construction 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22 6.80 6.09 10.53
Wholesale&retail trade, car&motorcycle reparations 5.40 4.81 5.18 2.59 4.03 4.46 4.97 13.02
Transportation and warehousing 7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.45 8.49 7.01 5.37
Accommodation, food and beverages 6.64 6.80 5.77 4.31 5.17 5.35 5.66 2.78
Information and communication 12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.88 9.63 7.04 3.77
Finance and insurance 9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.93 5.47 4.17 4.15
Real estate 7.41 6.54 5.00 4.11 4.69 3.66 3.58 2.74
Business services 7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36 8.44 8.64 1.80
Public adm., defense, & compulsory social security 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.20 2.06 7.02 3.65
Education 8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84 3.70 5.36 3.25
Health and social activities 7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5.16 6.84 7.13 1.07
Other services 5.76 6.40 8.93 8.08 8.01 8.73 8.99 1.81
Gross domestic product 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.03 5.07 5.17 100.00
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Low quality of growth: tradable sector versus
non-tradable sector
Growth, percent
9 8,6

7
7,1 6,4
6,3
6
6,4

5 5,1
4,9
4 4,5
3,8 3,6

2,7
2
2,2

1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tradable Non-tradable GDP

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Perubahan struktural
• Sosok perekonomian Indonesia telah banyak berubah dan
perubahannya kian nyata. Indonesia sudah lama bukan lagi
sebagai negara agraris, namun belum kunjung sebagai negara
industri.
• Satu dasawarsa lalu, Indonesia telah menjelma sebagai negara
jasa. Peranan sektor jasa dalam PDB perlahan tapi pasti
merangkak naik hingga mencapai 59% pada 2018.
• Penduduk yang bekerja di sektor jasa pun sudah lebih banyak
daripada yang bekerja di sektor penghasil barang, masing-masing
55% dan 45% pada tahun 2018.
• Nilai kapitalisasi pasar saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada akhir
2018 telah didominasi oleh perusahaan-perusahaan di sektor
jasa, yaitu sebesar 57%.
• Sektor penghasil barang yang meredup amat kentara dalam
perolehan kredit dari perbankan konvensional kepada pihak
ketiga yang hanya 27% pada akhir 2018.
Tranformasi perekonomian Indonesia
berlangsung relatif cepat sejak 2010
Struktur PDB: sektor penghasil barang (tradables) vs sektor jasa (non-tradables), persen
59

55

54
52

48
45 46

41

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tradables Non-tradables
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik,
 Bagian III
Konstitusi dan Regulasi
 Undang-Undang Dasar 1945, Pasal 33
(1) Perekonomian disusun sebagai usaha bersama berdasar atas
asas kekeluargaan.
(2) Cabang-cabang produksi yang penting bagi negara dan yang
menguasai hajat hidup orang banyak dikuasai oleh negara.
(3) Bumi dan air dan kekayaan alam yang terkandung di
dalamnya dikuasai oleh negara dan dipergunakan untuk
sebesar-besar kemakmuran rakyat.
(4) Perekonomian nasional diselenggarakan berdasar atas
demokrasi ekonomi dengan prinsip kebersamaan, efisiensi,
berkeadilan, berkelanjutan, berwawasan
lingkungan,kemandirian, serta dengan menjaga
keseimbangan kemajuan dan kesatuan ekonomi nasional.
(5) Ketentuan lebih lanjut mengenai pelaksanaan pasal ini
diatur dalam undang-undang.
 Pengertian “dikuasai” menurut Bung Hatta
Mohammad Hatta: hak menguasai negara itu adalah
negara mengatur, bukan memiliki. “Bung Hatta
berusaha memberikan sebuah defenisi yang longgar
mengenai makna “dikuasai oleh negara” itu. Menurut
Bung Hatta, makna “dikuasai” oleh negara dalam
pasal 33 UUD 1945 tidak berarti negara sendiri
menjadi pengusaha, usahawan, atau ondernemer.
Lebih tepat, kata Hatta, jika dikatakan bahwa
kekuasaan negara terdapat pada pembuatan
peraturan guna melancarkan jalan ekonomi, sebuah
peraturan yang melarang pula “penghisapan” orang
yang lemah oleh orang yang bermodal.”
https://arahkiri2009.blogspot.com/2011/10/makna-dikuasai-oleh-negara-dalam-pasal.html
Pengertian “dikuasai” menurut MK

Mahkamah Konstitusi, “hak menguasai negara”

mencakup pengertian bahwa negara:
▪ merumuskan kebijakan (beleid),
▪ melakukan pengaturan (regelendaad),
▪ melakukan pengurusan (bestuurdaad),
▪ melakukan pengelolaan (behersdaad), dan
▪ melakukan pengawasan (toezichthoundendaad)
untuk tujuan sebesar-besarnya kemakmuran rakyat.
Kedaulatan (sovereignty)

▪ in political theory, the ultimate overseer, or authority, in decision-

making process of the state and in the maintenance of order. The
concept of sovereignty—one of the most controversial ideas in political
science and international law—is closely related to the difficult concept
of state and government and of independence and democracy. Source:
britannica.com

▪ the power of a country to control its own government. Source:

cambridge.org

▪ is the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any
interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory,
sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over
some polity. Source: wikipedia.com
 Kedaulatan ada harganya atau ada trade-off
▪ PT Freeport Indonesia telah hadir
setengah abad. Akhir tahun lalu
kontrak sudah diperpanjang sampai
2041.
▪ Untuk perpanjangan sampai 2041,
pemerintah (Pusat dan Daerah)
mensyaratkan pemilikan mayoritas
(51%) dan telah terwujud.
▪ Pemilikan mayoritas ketika
penambangan di permukaan sudah
nyaris habis, ongkos eksploitasi kian
mahal, dana keluar dari Indonesia.

▪ Produksi tak naik, pembangunan infrastruktur baru tak akan masif, tak ada
tambahan tenaga kerja secara berarti. Perhitungan ekonomi vs finansial.
▪ Mengapa tak melakukan eksploitasi di lahan yang sudah dikembalikan oleh
Freeport yang lebih luas dengan potensi cadangan emas yang lebih besar?
Kedaulatan untuk menyejahterakan rakyat

▪ Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan di bawah Susi Pudjiastuti

mengedepankan konsep tiga pilar: kedaulatan, keberlanjutan,
kesejahteraan.
• Kedaulatan: menjaga laut supaya kapal asing tidak mencuri ikan
dan melakukan kegiatan ilegal lainnya di perairan dan daratan
Indonesia. Kedaulatan bisa tegak kalau kita memiliki armada dan
kapal patroli yang tangguh.
• Keberlanjutan: mengelola kekayaan laut Indonesia sehingga bisa
dinikmati oleh nelayan dan rakyat Indonesia hingga ke anak-cucu.
• Kesejahteraan: hasil dari tegaknya kedaulatan dan terpeliharanya
keberlanjutan.

▪ Tetapi di dalam pemerintahan sendiri terjadi tarik-ulur. Menko

Kemaritiman menginginkan kapal asing boleh menangkap ikan di
perairan Indonesia dan tidak setuju dengan penenggelaman kapal ilegal
walaupun pengadilan telah memerintahkannya berdasarkan undang-
undang yang berlaku.
Indonesia adalah negara maritim, tetapi
sumbangan perikanan hanya di bawah 3%
Share to GDP, %
16,00

13,93
14,00 13,51 13,37 13,36 13,34 13,49 13,48
13,15
12,81
Perikanan
12,00

10,99
10,00 10,63 10,47 Pertanian (pangan, holtikultura,
10,42 10,31 10,27 10,22
9,91 perkebunan, peternakan)
9,55
8,00

Kehutanan

6,00

Sektor Pertanian
4,00

2,51 2,56 2,57 2,60

2,09 2,09 2,14 2,21 2,32
2,00
0,85 0,79 0,76 0,73 0,71 0,71 0,71 0,67 0,66

0,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Laju pertumbuhan subsektor perikanan
selalu lebih tinggi dari sektor pertanian
Growth, percent
9

7,89
8 7,65
7,24 7,35

7 Sektor Pertanian

6 5,71
6,29 5,20
5 4,59 Pertanian (pangan,
4,20 4,24 5,19
3,95 3,91
holtikultura, perkebunan,
4,58 3,75 3,87
4 peternakan)
3,37
3,85 3,85
3,57 3,68
3 3,47 Perikanan
3,26
3,00
1,76 2,76
2 2,08
1,04
1 Kehutanan

0,61 0,58
0
0,24

-1
-1,03
-2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

NT nelayan tangkap naik paling tinggi, NT petani
tanaman perkebunan rakyat paling sengsara
115
113,78

110

106,82
105

103,14

100

95 94,73

90
Sep'14

Jan'15

3
2
3
4
5

7
8
9

Jan'16

5
2
3
4

6
7
8
9

Jan'17
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Jan'18
2

4
5
6
7
8
9

Jan'19
10
11
12

10
11
12

10
11
12

10
11
12

10
11
12
NTP-Non-perikanan NTN NTNT NT-TPR

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

 Bagian IV
Eksploitasi dan Potensi
Indonesia: oil reserves
Billion barrels
11,6
11,0

Proved reserves of oil - Generally

10,5

taken to be those quantities that

10,1

geological and engineering

9,6

information indicates with

9,2
9,0
9,0
9,0
reasonable certainty can be
recovered in the future from
known reservoirs under existing
economic and operating
conditions.
5,9
5,6
5,4

5,2
5,2

5,1
5,1

5,1

5,1
5,0
5,0

4,9
4,7

4,7
4,7

4,4

4,3
4,3

4,2
4,2

4,0
3,7

3,7
3,7
3,7
3,6
3,6
3,3
3,2
1985

1992

1999
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Indonesia: oil reserves-to-production ratio (R/P)
R/P (years)
23
21,6 Reserves-to-production (R/P)
21 ratio – If the reserves remaining
at the end of any year are
19
18,0 divided by the production in that
year, the result is the length of
17
time that those remaining
15 reserves would last if production
were to continue at that rate.
13
11,8 11,9
11,7
11 10,1 11,6
10,8 10,3
10,2
9 9,5
9,2
8,2
7

5
1989

2005
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Oil reserves in selected Asia Pacific countries
Billion barrels
30

25

20

15

10

0
China India Vietnam Australia Malaysia Indonesia

1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

 Natural gas reserves: Top-10 and Indonesia, 2017
Proved Share of R/P
reserves total ratio
(TCF) (%) (year)
Russian Federation 1,234.9 18.1 55.0
Iran 1,173.0 17.2 148.4
Qatar 879.9 12.9 141.8
Turkmenistan 688.1 10.1 314.1
United States 308.5 4.5 11.9
Saudi Arabia 283.8 4.2 72.1
Venezuela 225.0 3.3 170.2
United Arab Emirates 209.7 3.1 98.2
China 193.5 2.8 36.7
Nigeria 183.7 2.7 110.2
TOP-10 5,380.1 78.9 -
Algeria 153.1 2.2 47.5
Australia 128.3 1.9 32.0
Iraq 123.9 1.8 337.7
Indonesia 102.9 1.4 34.9
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
 Coal reserves: Top-5 and Indonesia, 2017

Antharacite Sub-
and bituminous Total Share R/P
bituminous and lignite (mil. of total ratio
(mil. tonnes) (mil. tonnes) tonnes) (percent) (year)

United States 220,800 30,116 250,916 24.2 357

Russian Federation 69,634 90,730 160,364 15.5 391

Australia 68,310 76,508 144,818 14.0 301

China 130,851 7,968 138,819 13.4 39

India 92,786 4,942 97.728 9.4 136

Total top-5 582,381 210,264 792,645 76.5 ..

Indonesia 15,068 7,530 22,598 2.2 49

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Ring of fire → ring of energy

37
Indonesia: primary energy consumption*
Million tonnes oil equivalent
205

185 177,6 175,2

165

150,9
145

125

105
101,6

85

65

52,5
45
25,8
25
7,2 9,1
5

*Primary energy comprises commercially-traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
.
Indonesia: energy comsumption by fuel, 2017

Renewables; 1,7
Hydro electric; 2,4

Coal; 32,6
Oil; 44,1

Natural Gas; 19,2

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

 Indonesia: energy comsumption by fuel, 2017

(thousand barrels daily) Oil production: A mixture

1,800 of hydrocarbons that exists
1,685
in liquid phase in natural
1,652
1,600 underground reservoirs
and remains liquid at
1,400
-703 atmospheric pressure after
(Importable)
1,200 passing through surface
separating facilities.
1,000 1,398
(Exportable) 949
Oil consumption: Inland
800
demand plus international
600
aviation and marine
bunkers and refinery fuel
400 and loss. Consumption of
287 biogasoline (such as
200
ethanol), biodiesel and
0
Oil production Oil consumption derivatives of coal and
natural gas are also
19 5
19 7
19 9
19 1
19 3
19 5
19 7
19 9
19 1
19 3
19 5
19 7
19 9
19 1
19 3
19 5
19 7
20 9
20 1
20 3
20 5
20 7
20 9
20 1
20 3
20 5
17
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
19

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

included.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
 Indonesia: energy comsumption by fuel, 2017
New reserves through massive exploration and continuous Investment are
required to increase or maintain long term production profile
1.600
1.415

1391
1.341

1.400

1.318
1286
1279
1.252

1.240
1250

1250

1.232
1231

1.202

1.200
1.200
1.200
1208

1.169
1185

Oil Gas

1.150
1.150
1.147

1.128
1.200

1.124
1120

1.096
1.062
1077

1.056
1.006

Notes:
992

993
977

Decline of Oil & Gas Production: 6% p.a

954

949

1.000
945

933
000 BOEPD

902

877
860

825
824

820
815

775
789
786

800

729
685
680

644
610

605
569
550

600

535
517

503
486

473
457

444
429

418
404

392
379

369
357

347
400

335

326
315

306
296

288
278

271
262

255
246

239
231

225
217

211
204

199
192
181
170
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

160
150
200

141
133
125
117
110
OIL (MBOPD) 945 902 860 824 789 786 820 815 680 610 550

103
97
91
86
GAS (MMSCFD) 6989 6989 6944 6900 6731 6546 6440 6440 6720 6720 6720
GAS (MBOEPD) 1391 1318 1240 1232 1202 1169 1150 1150 1200 1200 1200
OIL & GAS (MBOEPD) 2336 2220 2100 2056 1991 1955 1970 1965 1880 1810 1750
-

Source: SKK Migas, October 2016.

Natural gas: production and consumption
Bilion cubic metres
90 87,0

82,7

80 78,0 78,3 77,6

76,4 76,2
74,8
72,6
70,7
70 68,0

60

50

44,0
40 42,1 42,7 42,9
41,4 41,5 41,0
39,7 39,2
38,3

34,6
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production (billion cubic metres) Consumption (billion cubic metres)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

 Coal: share to the world, percent

Reserves Production Export value

United States 24.2 9.9 8.9
Russian Federation 15.5 5.5 12.2
Australia 14.0 7.9 36.6
China 13.4 46.4 1.0
India 9.4 7.8 0.1
Germany 3.5 1.0 0.0
Ukraine 3.3 0.4 0.1
Poland 2.5 1.3 0.7
Kazakhstan 2.5 1.3 0.4
Indonesia 2.2 7.2 16.1
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for reserves and production; www.worldstopexports.com.
 Coal: share to the world, percent

Reserves Production Export value

United States 24.2 9.9 8.9
Russian Federation 15.5 5.5 12.2
Australia 14.0 7.9 36.6
China 13.4 46.4 1.0
India 9.4 7.8 0.1
Germany 3.5 1.0 0.0
Ukraine 3.3 0.4 0.1
Poland 2.5 1.3 0.7
Kazakhstan 2.5 1.3 0.4
Indonesia 2.2 7.2 16.1
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for reserves and production; www.worldstopexports.com.
Indonesia: coal production
Million tonnes oil equivalent

279,7
269,9 272,0 271,6
268,8

227,4

208,2

162,1
151,0
141,6

127,8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

 Export of coal
30 450

400

25

350

20 300

250

15

200

10 150

100

50

0 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Value (USD billions)-LHS Volume (million ton)-RHS

Source: BPS-Statisctics Indonesia.

Perubahan paradigma pengelolaan SDA/energi
▪ Dari SDA/energi sebagai
• Komoditas
• Sumber penerimaan negara
• Sasaran pemburuan rente
• Sumber penerimaan devisa
▪ Menjadi
• Penggerak pembangunan dan akselerasi industrialisasi
• Keadilan antar-generasi
• Pembangunan ramah lingkungan dan berkelanjutan
• Energy security
▪ Maximum wealth creation in the country and
social welfare.
 PNBP dari sumber daya alam

Triliun rupiah

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019**

Minyak bumi 139.2 48.0 31.4 58.2 114.6 104.9
Gas alam 77.7 30.2 12.6 23.6 29.7 43.4
Minerba 19.3 17.7 15.8 23.8 19.3 24.0
Kehutanan 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.4
Perikanan 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Panas bumi 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Total 240.8 101.0 64.9 111.1 169.2 178.1
*Angka sementara
**APBN
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan.
The strategic role of manufacturing industry

▪ Boost productivity and value added

▪ Enlarge the formal sector and reduce the
informal workers
▪ Broaden the tax base
▪ Encourage exports (primary commodities
unreliable because the prices are very volatile;
services have many obstacles).
▪ Accelerate the increase in welfare (additional
gains from trade through intra-industry trade
▪ Lowering inequality
“Missing industries” in the crude oil value chain
End users
“Mising industries” in the natural gas-based
petrochemical value chain
End users
Trade in chemicals &chemical products
Chemicals & chemical products:
exports, imports & trade balances
2000-2016, US$ bn
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25 Exports Imports Trade balance
-30
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
Source: BPS, calculated.
Note: Chemicals and chemical products (exclude pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), consisting
of HS Code: 29 (Organic chemicals; 32 (Tanning & dyeing; 38 (Miscelaneous chemical
products); 39 (Plastic & article thereof); 4002 (Synthetic rubber & factice); 54 (Man-made
filaments; 55 (Man-made staple fibres).
Petrochemical complex without refinery
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk

• Kompleks industri petrokimia terbesar di Indonesia ini

tidak ada kilang minyak
• Di masa lalu tak masalah karena sangat diproteksi.
• Daya saingnya bakal meningkat jika terbentuk usaha
hulu-hilir terpadu.
TPPI is ideal as an integrated oil and gas industry
location

Future
Olefin Aromatic
Planned location Plant Plant
for Downstream Land owned PT
Plant Pertamina (64 Ha)

Pertamina TBBM
Tuban
Bontang
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
 Integrated refinery and petrochemical
industry in Singapore
ExxonMobil Singapore
PT Chandra AsriChemical
PetrochemicalPlant
Tbk Expansion

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130530005473/en/ExxonMobil-Singapore-Chemical-Plant-Expansion-Operation

SHELL EASTERN PETROCHEMICALS COMPLEX

http://www.shell.com/about-us/major-projects/shell-eastern-petrochemicals-complex/shell-eastern-petrochemicals-complex-overview.html
Integrated refinery and petrochemical
industry in Malaysia
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
Saudi Aramco to
invest $7 billion in
Petronas' RAPID oil
refinery
https://www.pipelineme.com/news/regional-
news/2017/02/saudi-aramco-to-invest-7-billion-
in-petronas-rapid-oil-refinery/

Petroliam Nasional’s
(Petronas) Refinery and
Petrochemical
Integrated Development
(Rapid) project located
in the state of Johor.
http://refiningandpetrochemicals.energy-business-
review.com/news/technip-to-supply-hydrogen-
reformers-for-petronass-rapid-project-in-malaysia-
211015-4698991
 Integrated refinery and petrochemical
industry in Thailand
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk

http://pttgcbelmontcountyoh.com/about-pttgc/

PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is Thailand's largest and Asia's

leading integrated petrochemical and refining company.
Kenyataannya ….

https://www.selasar.com/budaya/freeport-raja-emas-dari-barat59
Penambangan emas liar di Papua
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
 The world’s most unequal countries

Share of total wealth of richest 1% dan 10% in 2017

Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2017.

 The crony-capitalism index, 2014 and 2016
Billionaire wealth from crony sectors as a % of GDP, ranked by 2016
15.91
Russian Federation 18.05
16.10
Malaysia 12.97
11.88
Philippines 11.27
11.92
Singapore 10.68
13.22
Ukraine 6.70

Mexico 8.94
6.57
3.76
Indonesia 3.80
2.87
Turkey 3.42
3.62
India 3.36
5.47
Taiwan 3.19
2.92
China* 3.17
1.98
Thailand 2.61
2.92
South Africa 2.46
2.31
Britain 2.30
2.73
Brazil 2.27
2.24
United States 1.83
2.14
Argentina 1.60
0.72
Japan 0.63

Korea, Rep. of 0.32

0.53
0.29 2014 2016
Germany 0.22

*Includes territories.
Source: The Economist, Daily chart: Comparing crony capitalism around the world (http://econ.st/24zXocy).
 The crony-capitalism index, 2016
Billionaire wealth as a % of GDP, ranked by crony-sector wealth

Crony sectors Non-crony sectors

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0

Russian Federation
Malaysia
Philippines Indonesia’s rank (% of GDP):
Singapore • 2007 18th (not available)
Ukraine
• 2014 8th (3.76)
Mexico
Indonesia 3.8 2.0
• 2016 7th (3.80)
Turkey
Where the living is easy
India
Taiwan Rent-seeking sectors included in
China* the index
Thailand • Casinos
South Africa • Coal, palm oil and timber
Britain • Defense
Brazil • Deposit-taking banking and investment
United States banking
Argentina • infrastructure and pipelines
France • Oil, gas, chemicals and other energy
Japan • Ports, airports
Korea, Rep. of • Real estate and construction
Poland • Steel, other metals, mining and
Germany commodities
• Utilities and telecoms services
*Includes territories.
Source: The Economist, Daily chart: Comparing crony capitalism around the world (http://econ.st/24zXocy).
Peringkat sovereign wealth funds berbasis SDA
dengan asset di atas USD 10 miliar
Assets, USD billions
1. Norway - Government Pension Fund-Global (oil) 1035,2
2. UAE - Abu Dhabi Investment Auhority (oil) 941,4
3. Kuwait - Kuwait Investment Authority (oil) 592,0
3. Saudi Arabia - SAMA Foreign Holdings (oil) 494,0
5. Qatar - Qatar Investment Authority (oil & gas) 320,0
6. Saudi Arabia - Pulic Investment Fund (oil) 250,0
7. UAE - Mubadala Investment Company (oil) 125,0
8. Iran - National Development Fund of Iran (oil & gas) 91,0
9. Russia - National Welfare Fund (oil) 66,3
10. Libya - Libyan Investment Authority (oil) 66,0
11. U.S. - Alaska Permanent Fund (oil) 61,5
12. Kazakhstan - Kazakhstan National Fund (oil) 57,9
13. runei Darassalam - Brunei Investment Agency (oil) 40,0
14. U.S. - Texas Permanent School Fund (oil & other) 37,7
14. UAE - Emirates Investment Authority (oil) 34,0
15. Azerbaijan - State Oil Fund (oil) 33,1
16. U.S. - New Mexico State Investment Council (oil & gas) 20,2
17. Oman - State General Reserve Fund (oil & gas) 18,0
18. U.S. - Permanent University Fund (oil & gas) 17,3
19. Timor-Leste - Timor-Leste Petroleum Fund (oil & gas) 16,6
20. Chile - Social and Economic Stailization Fund (copper) 14,7
21, Canada - Alberta's Heritage Fund (oil) 13,4

Source: https://www.swfinstitute.org/sovereign-wealth-fund-rankings/, downloaded on July 29, 2018.

 Peringkat sovereign wealth funds berbasis SDA
dengan asset di bawah USD 10 miliar
Assets, USD billions
22. Chile - Pension Reserve Fund (copper) 9,4
23. Algeria - Revenue Regulation Fund (oil & gas) 7,6
24. U.S. - Permanent Wyoming Mineral Trust Fund (minerals) 7,3
25. Mexico - Oil Revenues Stabilization Fund of Mexico (oil) 6,0
26. Oman - Oman Investment Fund (oil) 6,0
27. Botswana - Pula Fund (diamonds & minerals) 5,5
28. Trinidad & Tobago - Heritage and Stabilization Fund (oil) 5,5
29. Angola - Fundo Soberano de Angola (oil) 4,6
30. U.S. - North Dakota Legacy Fund (oil & gas) 4,3
31. Colombia - Colombia Savings and Stabilization Fund (oil and mining) 3,5
32. U.S. - Alabama Trust Fund (oil & gas) 2,7
33. Kazakhstan - National Investment Corporation (oil) 2,0
34. U.S. - Utah - SITFO (land and mineral royalties) 2,0
35. U.S. - Idaho Endowmwnt Fund Investment Board (land and mineral… 2,0
36. Nigeria - Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (oil) 1,4
37. U.S. - Lousiana Education Quality Trust Fund (oil & gas) 1,3
38. Iraq - Development Fund for Iraq (oil) 0,9
39. Venezuela - FEM (oil) 0,8
40. Kiribati - Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (phosphates) 0,6
41. Ghana - Ghana Petroleum Funds (oil) 0,5
42. Gabon - Gaon Sovereign Wealth Fund (oil) 0,4
43. Mauritania - National Fund for Hydrocarbon Reserves (oil & gas) 0,3
44. Australia - Western Australian Future Fund (minerals) 0,3
45. Mongolia - Fiscal Stability Funds (minerals) 0,3
46. Equatorial Guinea - Fund for Future Genertions (oil) 0,1
47. Papua New Guinea - Papua New Guinea Sovereign Welath Fund… 0
48. Turkmenistan - Turkmenistan Staulization Fund (oil & gas) 0
49. U.S. - West Virginia Future Fund (oil & gas) 0
50. Mexico - Fondo Mexicano del Petroleo (oil & gas) 0

Source: https://www.swfinstitute.org/sovereign-wealth-fund-rankings/, downloaded on July 29, 2018.

From extractive to inclusive political and
economic institutions: Indonesia “in making”
Political
competition

Institutional Low High

capacity
Orde Baru (Soeharto): Current government:
• High concentration of • High dispersion of political
political power power
• Double functions of • Ineffective government
Low military (governance problems)
• Effective government • High corruption
• Systemic and organized • High degree of local
corruption autonomy
Future government:
• Government effectiveness
• Low corruption
???
High • High degree of local
(Can not step back) autonomy & competition
• Rule of law and rules of
the game
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Twitter: @faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri.com
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri