Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
National University
In Partial Fulfillment
by
September 2010
Copyright 2010
2
Executive Summary
When I was traveling for work, it struck me that the interesting places were *not* the chains I
find at home, it was the unique experiences that I was craving. Not a franchise, and not an internet
One Good Cookie is a sole proprietorship business with the vision of providing “One Good
Cookie at a Fair Price.” Our slogan is “One Good Cookie Deserves Another! TM” and our mission is
“To make unique, creative, high quality cookies and provide them locally at a fair price in a single-
store cookie shop.” Our values are community, quality ingredients, and fair prices.
Our financial objectives are to achieve an average sales transaction of $4.50 per customer by the
end of the first year and to increase the first year profit by 5% in the second year of business. The top
local competitors are profitable with revenues of over $500,000 per year (Manta.com, 2010b, 2010d)
and are sustainable as most have been in business for 15 years or more (Manta.com, 2010a, 2010b,
2010d). Financial projections show that the business will have positive cash flow in the first month of
operations as 34% of revenue generated. Start up expense will be $22,605 with a net profit in the first
3
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY______________________________________________________________III
TABLE OF CONTENTS_______________________________________________________________IV
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS______________________________________________________________1
MARKET RESEARCH_________________________________________________________________2
Secondary Research Information___________________________________________2
Demographics._____________________________________________________________________2
Industry Trends.____________________________________________________________________3
Supply Sources.____________________________________________________________________4
Industry Information Sources._________________________________________________________4
Competitive Intelligence___________________________________________________4
Strengths and Weaknesses.___________________________________________________________9
Opportunities._____________________________________________________________________10
Threats.__________________________________________________________________________11
The Marketing Mix______________________________________________________11
Summary______________________________________________________________12
Quantitative Market Research____________________________________________13
Sampling Methodology & Sample Size._________________________________________________13
Target Respondent Profile.___________________________________________________________13
Questionnaire.____________________________________________________________________14
Primary Research Analysis of Quantitative and Data__________________________14
Survey Data.______________________________________________________________________14
Research Conclusions____________________________________________________26
MARKETING PLAN__________________________________________________________________28
Vision_________________________________________________________________28
Slogan_________________________________________________________________28
Mission Statement_______________________________________________________28
Values_________________________________________________________________28
Objectives______________________________________________________________28
The Target Customer____________________________________________________28
The Marketing Mix______________________________________________________29
Product.__________________________________________________________________________30
Price.____________________________________________________________________________31
Place.____________________________________________________________________________31
Promotion._______________________________________________________________________31
Branding______________________________________________________________32
4
Advertising_____________________________________________________________32
Customer Service and Suggestive Selling____________________________________32
Uncontrollable Variables_________________________________________________33
Conclusion_____________________________________________________________33
FINANCIAL PLAN____________________________________________________________________34
Narrative Introduction___________________________________________________34
Financial Objectives_____________________________________________________34
Revenue Forecast_______________________________________________________34
Pro Forma Cash Flow Analysis____________________________________________36
Pro Forma Income Analysis_______________________________________________39
Pro Forma Balance Sheet_________________________________________________40
Schedule of Estimated Start-Up Expenses___________________________________40
Furniture ($900).__________________________________________________________________41
Fixtures ($2,000).__________________________________________________________________41
Kitchen Equipment ($4,380)._________________________________________________________41
Tenant Improvements ($2,000)._______________________________________________________42
Signs ($8,600).____________________________________________________________________42
Business Computer Equipment ($620)._________________________________________________42
Leased Space ($1,200).______________________________________________________________42
Restaurant Supplies ($1,100).________________________________________________________42
Office Supplies ($400).______________________________________________________________43
Kitchen Dishes ($150).______________________________________________________________43
Kitchen Utensils ($150)._____________________________________________________________43
Printing Services ($625).____________________________________________________________43
Licenses & Permits ($630).__________________________________________________________43
Plan for Financing the Business____________________________________________44
Narrative Conclusions___________________________________________________45
OPERATIONS PLAN__________________________________________________________________46
Legal Form of Business__________________________________________________46
Staffing Plan___________________________________________________________46
Training and Motivation.____________________________________________________________46
Organizational Chart.______________________________________________________________46
Risk Management_______________________________________________________47
Insurance.________________________________________________________________________47
Contractual____________________________________________________________47
5
Other Needs____________________________________________________________48
Research & Development.___________________________________________________________48
Supply Chain._____________________________________________________________________48
Production Procedures._____________________________________________________________48
Service Procedures.________________________________________________________________48
Implementation Plan____________________________________________________48
CONCLUSION AND STATEMENT OF VIABILITY________________________________________50
APPENDIX A – RESUMES_____________________________________________________________53
APPENDIX B – SURVEY QUESTIONS__________________________________________________56
6
List of Tables and Exhibit
Figure 1. Working population by zip code.......................................................................................2
Figure 2. The majority of the cookie manufacturing industry in California...................................3
Figure 3. Survey question 1..........................................................................................................15
Figure 4. Survey question 2..........................................................................................................16
Figure 5. Survey question 3..........................................................................................................17
Figure 6. Survey question 4..........................................................................................................18
Figure 7. Survey question 5..........................................................................................................19
Figure 8. Survey question 6..........................................................................................................20
Figure 9. Survey question 7..........................................................................................................21
Figure 10. Survey question 8........................................................................................................22
Figure 11. Survey question 9........................................................................................................25
Figure 12. Survey question 10.....................................................................................................26
Figure 13. Organizational Chart....................................................................................................47
Y
7
Situational Analysis
My vision is for a one-location cookie shop in the San Diego area. When I was traveling
for work, it struck me that the interesting places were *not* the chains I find at home, it was the
unique experiences that I was craving. Not a franchise, and not an internet thing, just a face-to-
face unique experience kind of place. Location will be critical, but I'm looking at more of a
The focus is strictly cookies - do one thing and do it well. There are tons of exceptional
'bakeries' here in San Diego (with French trained culinary wizards at the helm) and I do not want
to put myself in their niche. I'm looking for that little, local, comfy, home-made,
grassroots feeling. More along the lines of "the Livingroom" but not a coffee shop. I don't want
it to be about beverages, and I thought about this a lot, there are too many of those out there
already. I really want to keep it simple and focus on this niche where I can excel. Nothing too
corporate, I’d like to keep it smaller and more quaint. Just a little local hole-in-the-wall (in a
My desired endpoint is to have a complete business plan in place that will show me what
I need to do (operationally) and how much money I will need (financially) to actually get this
business started within 12-18 months. As a result of this business plan, “I will understand the
market, financial commitment, profit potential, and other aspects of the business and establish its
The company will begin as a sole proprietorship. The distinctive core competencies are
Market research includes secondary and primary research on available information for
Secondary research methods were used to find business information about target
customers, product and current industry trends, sources of supply and competitive intelligence.
Demographics.
Demographic information was gathered from the US Census Bureau website from the
year 2000 Census results for the zip codes 92123 and 92124 which are potential store locations.
In each of these communities gender is balanced 50/50. The total population of working people
92123
92124
92123; 13,487; 45.74%
92124; 16,002; 54.26%
NAICS code 311821 corresponds to the “Cookie and Cracker Manufacturing” industry.
Data was gathered from the Economic Census of 2007, which indicates that there are 56
establishments in California for this industry. Of these 56 establishments, 43% are in the Los
Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside combined statistical area, and 13% are in the Santa Ana-
Anaheim-Irvine combined statistical area (Orange County). This means that at least 56% of
these establishments are nearby in Southern California, but there is no specific census line for the
San Diego County area for this industry code. There may be a strong market opportunity here.
Other
Other; 45%; 44.36% Southern California
Southern California; 56%; 55.64%
Restaurant supplies in San Diego are mostly ordered from Sysco Corporation
(www.sysco.com ). Some entrepreneurs also shop at Costco for Wholesale prices on bulk items
This industry poses challenges in that some cookie stores have categorized themselves as
bakeries or snack bars rather than as cookie manufacturers. Additionally, these are small private
companies, therefore there is not a lot of information available about their finances or
production. Informal yet valuable sources of information included Manta.com and Yelp.com,
and official information sources included the City of San Diego Business License database and
Competitive Intelligence
Product sales information is private, and these are all privately owned small companies.
According to Manta.com, the City of San Diego, and Yelp.com, each company has the following
Location Type Single Location Single Location Farmers markets Single Location
$500,000 to $1
Annual Sales (Est.) Less than $500,000 $500,000 to $1 million Unknown million
An analysis of the San Diego County businesses that fit the business model of a single
location cookie store reveals that there are very few in the area, but the few that are here are well
known and successful. Customer review comments from the yelp.com for each of the four main
competitors were analyzed to reveal forty-three different elements of concern for their patrons.
The current demand in the market is high, as many cite in online comments a willingness
to pay a premium for a good product as well as willingness to put up with what is occasional
Tables 2 through 5 provide a summary of the online reviews for each competitor and
have been categorized with respect to (a) product, (b) price, (c) promotion, and (d) place.
GIRARD
GOURMET
SEAPORT COOKIE DESIGNER
UNCLE BIFF'S CO. THE CRAVORY COOKIES
PRODUCT
1. Moist or dry? Moist Moist Moist Dry
2. Fresh or stale? Fresh Fresh Fresh Sometimes stale
3. Chip ratio? Good Good Good Good
4. Quality
ingredients? Good Ok Good Ok
5. Buttery or oily? Buttery Oily Ok Dry
6. Scent? Good Good Good Good
7. Soft or hard? Soft Chewy Soft Hard
8. Thick or flat? Thick Flat Thick Flat
9. Warm? Warm Warm Not Not
10. Healthy
options? Oatmeal Oatmeal Gluten Free Oatmeal
11. Undercooked? Sometimes No No No
12. Size? Too small (3") Good (5") Good Good (5")
13. Appearance? Good Average Average Excellent
14. Firm edges? Yes Yes Unknown Yes
950 custom,
9 signature,
& 3 monthly Average – 12
15. Flavor/taste? Good – 15 flavors Average – 10 flavors cookie flavors flavors
16. Custom orders? Yes No Yes Yes
17. Beverages? Few Yes No Yes
18. Creativity? No No Yes Yes
GIRARD
GOURMET
SEAPORT COOKIE DESIGNER
UNCLE BIFF'S CO. THE CRAVORY COOKIES
PROMOTION
23. Supply? Sometimes wait Good supply Run out quick Good supply
24. Wait? No lines No lines Long lines Long lines
25. Samples? No No Free samples No
26. Watch
production? Yes Yes No No
27. Delivery? Unknown No Yes Yes
28. Donate to
charity? Yes Unknown Yes Unknown
29. Service? Ok Ok Excellent Ok
Strengths of the competitors are that they are well established and well known. They
have each generated a unique following and have differentiated themselves in the marketplace.
Yet each business has its unique challenges as well, and that leaves room for opportunity.
Located in the walking-friendly area of Hillcrest, Uncle Biff’s has a simple storefront
with a big, eye-catching neon sign. They have a huge and loyal following, and their signature
cookie is the “California Killer Cookie.” One unique strength is their deal on day-old cookies of
buy 6 for $5. Their weaknesses include that their one-cookie price is perceived as too high, their
no-frills decor, lack of outdoor seating, and there are grumbles that the cookies could be larger
With a perfectly sized, double-window booth in the heart of Seaport Village, the Seaport
Cookie Company could not ask for a better location. The double-window booth eliminates long
lines, and fresh baking lures plentiful tourists with yummy aromas. As if that was not enough,
their ‘buy 3 get one free’ deal is the perfect value. Weaknesses include that the cookies are flat
rather than thick, parking must be validated, and there have been problems with credit card
Overcoming the challenge of selling at local Farmer’s Markets, the Cravory has
generated a vocal and loyal following who are yearning for a local storefront. The owners
actually respond to their fans on yelp. In addition, they allow custom orders and unique grown-
up flavors that you won’t find anywhere else, including gluten-free varieties. A major weakness
is a lack of signage, making it difficult for patrons to locate them at the various markets. In
addition, since they can’t bake on-site, they often run out of popular flavors and there are long
This competitor started as more than just a cookie store, but in their cookie offerings
simply cannot be ignored. The real draw is their unique eye-catching sugar cookies. Not only
are they beautiful, they are witty in their attention to current events, such as a Shawn White
snowboarder cookie during the Winter Olympics. Pair that with their La Jolla location and the
premium price of $4 each makes sense. They feature a sugar ‘cookie of the day’ in their
windows which draws the curious to stop by often and look to see what is new for the day.
Opportunities.
There are quite a few opportunities here for a great business. First, the market is not
over-saturated with competition. It an effort to identify competitors in the San Diego County
area, I came up with only four unique local cookies specialty stores, and three cookie franchise
locations. For a city with over 2 million residents, seven cookie stores spread out over the entire
county does not seem to be an overwhelming amount of competition. And of the cookie stores
that I have discovered, most have been in business for over 10 years each, showing that they are
very stable. Customers want a product that is warm, fresh, moist, soft, flavorful, and attractive,
and they are willing to pay for quality. They want a clean facility, easy parking, air conditioning,
restrooms, indoor and outdoor seating options, and a pleasant atmosphere with no microwaves
and no pan handlers. They are looking for quality and value. They will pay up to $2 per cookie
with few grumbles for gourmet quality with excellent visual appeal. The ideal price point seems
to be $1.50 each with a deal of “buy 3 get 1 free.” The other popular deal was day-old cookies at
Threats.
The biggest threat is that the location would not prove to be profitable. There are
enormous benefits to having a fixed location, but the drawback is that if surrounding
demographics are not suitable it can kill a business before they even get off the ground. Other
threats include that new competitors can enter the market, that knock-offs could be developed, or
that economic conditions become worse than they currently are which would leave people with
Competitive intelligence reveals that the ideal company would have the following
Summary
Secondary market research has been incredibly valuable as it has informed not only the
ideal marketing mix but also revealed that the local market is far from saturated and has only a
handful of very strong, well established competitors for this industry. By learning from the
established companies before the new business is started, we can avoid some of the problems
market information that is summarized in the previous section. For the following primary
market research, a ten question survey was developed and posted on the internet via a free survey
software company called Survey Monkey. Responses remain anonymous, but ample room for
comments was provided in order to gain more insight into what potential customers would like to
This first primary research survey will be conducted with non-probability based
sampling, with a goal of 50 responses. Without the time or funds to conduct a probability based
sampling, the minimum of 50 responses will give a small glimpse into the mind of potential
consumers, and can point the way for further more in-depth primary market research.
The target respondent for the proposed shop location is someone who lives, works, or
goes to school in the 92123 or 92124 zip code. Since I work in the 92123 zip code, I will ask
people who I come into contact with at work to complete the survey. In addition, however, I will
also contact people I know who live in other cities and states, to get their input as well.
Responses from people outside that zip code will be considered for general information, and it is
possible that they may live, work, or go to school near one of the four local major competitors
being analyzed.
An online survey was created in Survey Monkey, the free internet survey software
mentioned above. This survey (Appendix B – Survey Questions) asks 10 key questions for this
early stage of business development as a single-location cookie shop. The link to this online
survey was sent to 14 classmates, and was posted to Facebook with approximately 150 contacts
listed there. I work in the 92123 zip code, and also asked co-workers to participate. While this
is clearly a convenience sample, and therefore biased, it has been noted that it is a starting point
to gather some basic ideas and then refine the questions for a future more in-depth and
statistically valid probability sample survey of the target zip code for the store itself.
Questionnaire.
A ten question survey was designed with feedback from the professor and classmates. It
was refined and posted on 22 August, 2010 (Appendix B – Survey Questions). This type of
primary research, survey research, is very important to any business but it is especially helpful to
a new business. The purpose of primary research is to “quantify the opportunity which will
include determining the total demand, the unmet demand, how competitors are or could satisfy
this demand, how your offering is to be distinctive in this market, and your reasonable sales
Analysis of the data gathered from the primary research survey provides some important
clues as to customer preferences, especially from the comments where participants elaborated on
their responses.
Survey Data.
Survey responses are displayed below and comments have been summarized. For all
responses, the sample size “N” is equal to 45, which means that 45 people completed the survey.
Question 1
Research Conclusions
The most beneficial result was input on the company name, with “One Good Cookie”
coming out significantly ahead of the other choices. In addition, it was discovered that the
survey participants would look for a business like this at the mall more frequently than they
would look for it in their neighborhood. That result was surprising, and requires additional
market research before an actual location is selected for the store itself. For the product, the
likely time of purchase indicates that business would be best from lunchtime/afternoon through
evening hours, with few customers in the early morning or late at night.
But with N=45 but only 5 of those actually in the target zip code, I would not rely
entirely on these survey replies for creating a product marketing plan. Some of the comments
provide sound advice, and when added to the secondary research comments from actual local
cookie patrons this provides an interesting picture of the market potential. Further study should
be made within the targeted neighborhoods to get a larger sample, and a mall area should also be
surveyed for comparison to see if it is more supportive of this type of business than a
The marketing plan includes the company vision, slogan, mission, values, objectives,
Vision
Slogan
Mission Statement
To make unique, creative, high quality cookies and provide them locally at a fair price in
Values
Community
Quality Ingredients
Fair Prices
Objectives
1. Achieve an average sales transaction of $4.50 per customer within the first year.
The target customer for this business is a person who totally loves cookies. The cookie
lover is a niche market, as demonstrated in the comments of the primary research survey. Cookie
lovers, like myself, tend to take it for granted that everyone else loves cookies as much as they
do. While enthusiasm is important for any business, I cannot allow it to blind me to the cold fact
that not everyone is in love with cookies. More importantly, among cookie lovers I am seeking
those who are not the health nuts looking for ‘alternative’ cookies. My vision is for good old
fashioned high calorie splurge type cookies. Locating these cookie lovers is no simple task, as it
Within my primary research, I had one potential customer out of 45 who stated “I’d go anywhere
for a cookie” – this is my target customer, the one who will, in theory, go the extra mile in the
middle of the night to satisfy that cookie craving. It is said that the rule of 80/20 in business is
that 80% of your profits will come from 20% of your customers. The 20% of my customers who
Based upon secondary data research, the ideal company would have the following
Product.
Cookie lovers want a moist, fresh cookie with ample ingredients. They prefer a 5”
diameter or larger size with firm edges and a soft chewy thick warm center, but not undercooked.
Scent and appearance should both be attractive, and they want a nice variety of choices for
flavor. Creativity is important, plus a variety of beverages and the ability to place custom orders.
Most want real butter in their cookies, while some want a healthy alternative too.
Price.
Customers want a good deal. They are willing to pay $1.50 per cookie, but not much
more than that. Two of the most popular deals were “buy 3 get 1 free” and also 6 cookies that
were 1 day old for $5. Credit cards may be more trouble than they are worth – one mistake with
those and customers were extremely unhappy and vocal about it.
Place.
The location should be accessible to those who walk around, yet have good parking too.
Customers prefer a storefront over a farmer’s market location, and good signage is an absolute
must. The décor should be comfortable rather than spartan, and both indoor and outdoor seating
are desired. Indoor areas should be air conditioned and clean, with restrooms for customers. No
pan handlers and do not warm things up in the microwave – it’s not authentic. Good music is
Initial primary market research revealed that a shopping mall is one of the stronger
possibilities for a store location, rather than a neighborhood location which was being considered
before primary market research was completed. Further primary market research will need to be
conducted regarding the ideal location for the business. Location will be critical to generate the
appropriate volume of business. Shopping mall patrons will need to be surveyed, and further
studies should be done at the neighborhood strip mall locations as a comparative before the
location is determined.
Promotion.
Be sure to have a good supply of product on hand, and give out samples so they can try
before they buy. Don’t make people wait in line, be sure to help them promptly. Let them watch
the process of products being made – it inspires trust. Delivery is a nice service, but it is
optional. Overall, good customer service is very important and customers value a company that
Promotion will use an integrated marketing approach that includes public relations, sales
promotion, customer service, and suggestive selling techniques to help keep sales at target levels.
Promotion will include a strong branding element, as described in the next section.
Branding
A graphic designer will be hired to create three brand image choices for the logo, website
for promotion only (no online sales), packaging, décor, signage, employee attire, and product
display designs. They will use feedback that we have from our primary research indicating that
neutral colors like off-white, peach, beige, and brown are colors people associate with our
concept of fresh, warm, and tasty cookies. We will do market research with those three choices
Advertising
Our primary research indicates that the number one information source for us will be
word of mouth, closely followed by signage on location and information on the internet.
Signage and internet branding will be designed by a graphic designer and tested with market
research before being implemented. Word of mouth will require that we are good about getting
the initial word out so people can tell others about our product. To encourage word of mouth we
will provide free product samples to local businesses and community organizations in the first 90
Customer service must be of the highest quality in a small business like this, and
extensive care will be taken to select the right employees for the job of working with the public
and representing the brand. Suggestive selling techniques will be used, and each customer
should be offered the ‘buy 3 get 1 free’ opportunity. In addition, free samples will be provided,
to help customers find their favorite flavors and not be disappointed in paying for something they
Uncontrollable Variables
The uncontrollable variables include changes in the economic, legal, and political
climate; changes in technology; and socio-cultural changes. Changes in these areas require
adaptation of the business itself in order to survive as the world around the business changes.
Therefore, it will be important to stay informed on these local environmental factors throughout
the lifespan of the business. For example, if there are legal changes in any health permit laws,
Conclusion
Primary and secondary research have been insightful in designing a strong marketing
plan. The vision is clear, the slogan is sensible, the mission and objectives are achievable, and
all of these integrate well with the values of the company. The marketing mix of product, price,
place, and promotion were developed based upon these research results. Branding, advertising,
customer service, suggestive selling, and uncontrollable variables are each addressed. Overall,
the marketing plan is viable and will help create a strong new business.
Financial Plan
Narrative Introduction
The purpose of the plan is to illustrate the revenue and expense situation for starting this
business and generating a profit. The financial plan includes financial objectives, revenue forecast,
pro forma cash flow analysis, pro forma income analysis, pro forma balance sheet, and estimate of
start-up expenses. The financial plan for this business has been developed with information
gathered from secondary and primary market research as well as US Economic Census data.
Financial Objectives
1. Achieve an average sales transaction of $4.50 per customer within the first year.
Revenue Forecast
Based on the secondary data information for Seaport Cookie Company, they had at least
$500,000 in sales in one year with a cookie price of $1.50 each (Manta.com, 2010b; yelp.com,
2010b). This is most similar to the pricing and financial model that I wish to follow, so it is being
used as a basis for financial projections. Since their most popular deal is ‘buy 3 get 1 free’ I am
going to add in 1 ‘free’ cookie for every 3 sold when making production estimates.
If sales in 12 months are $500,000 divide that by $1.50 and you get 333,333 cookies that
were paid for. Since their most popular deal is ‘buy 3 get 1 free’ we will estimate that they
produced 444,444 cookies to generate that much revenue. That is a daily average of 1,218 cookies
sold in a year with 365 days. They are open from 10 am to 10 pm for 12 hours each day, so that is
an hourly sale rate of about 102 cookies per hour. In order to reach this target, production will
have to match that pace, with approximately 2 cookies per minute being produced and given out.
That requires heavy foot traffic, which Seaport Village definitely has, so we must look not at
neighborhood locations which are low density, but at high density areas like tourist spots, large
shopping malls or downtown nightlife areas. Other possibilities would be to lease space in college
Seaport Village Cookie Co. is well established and has been in business for at least 10
years. To be more reasonable in our projections, if we did 50% of their annual business volume in
our first year it would be a great year. That’s $250,000 in sales in the first year as a new start-up
with a rate of 1 cookie per minute being produced and given out, or about 5 dozen per hour.
Our plan, however, calls for 9 hours per day of work time versus their 12 hours per day,
which would mean either an increase in number of cookies per hour to achieve the revenue target
of $250,000 in sales, or a decrease in target revenue for the first year. That would mean sales of 68
cookies per hour or 1.13 cookies per minute to stay on target with a first year sales revenue of
$250,000 before taxes and other expenses. That would be approximately $76 per hour of incoming
revenue during open business hours. If business is distributed evenly across all months.
Monthly sales are not normally equal, so ratios were obtained from the US Census Bureau
(2009) for Retail and Food Services Sales by Kind of Business for two categories – “Food and
Beverage Stores” (NAICS 445) and also “Limited Service Eating Places” (NAICS 7222), and were
compared to each other and found to be almost identical. The sales per month was calcualted as a
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9%
Source: http://www.census.gov/retail/#mrts Retail and Food Services Sales: Excel (1992-present)
An adoption curve from MBA class lecture notes (Lefkowitz, 2010) is factored in for the
first six months of business, to give a more accurate picture of start up revenue. Table 9 below has
an adoption curve of 60% of capacity in the first month and grows to 97% capacity in the sixth
month of business.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Full revenue 20,000 17,500 20,000 20,000 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 20,000 20,000 20,000 22,500
Adoption curve 60% 66% 73% 80% 88% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Revenue 12,000 11,550 14,520 15,972 19,765 21,862 22,500 22,500 20,000 20,000 20,000 22,500
To calculate gross profit, we need to take the adoption curved revenue and then subtract the
cost of goods sold. To find an accurate cost of goods sold, we need to know our cost per cookie
and how many cookies were produced. It is important to remember we’re offering “buy 3 get 1
free” so for every 3 cookies paid for in revenue, one will be given away for free.
Using a list of ingredients for an average cookie recipe, and current figures from a leading
national grocery chain, the cost per cookie was calculated at $.25 each. Note that this is a
conservative estimate because we would actually be able to lower the cost per cookie by buying in
Once the cost per cookie is known, we need to figure how many cookies are being made.
If we have a revenue of $12,000 at $1.50 per cookie that means that 8,000 cookies were sold, but
with our special there is one cookie given for free for every 3 cookies sold, so 8,000 is only 75%
of the cookies that were actually made and distributed. Therefore, we will produce and distribute
10,667 cookies in the first month of business. At $.25 each that is a cost of goods sold of $2,667
for that month, which will result in a positive cash flow in the first month of business, as shown
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cash 0 4,053 7,954 12,858 18,254 24,930 32,315 39,915 47,515 54,271 61,027 67,783
Balance
Revenue 12,000 11,550 14,520 15,972 19,765 21,862 22,500 22,500 20,000 20,000 20,000 22,500
(curved)
Cookies 8,000 7,700 9,680 10,648 13,177 14,574 15,000 15,000 13,333 13,333 13,333 15,000
“Sold”
Cookies 10,667 10,267 12,907 14,197 17,569 19,433 20,000 20,000 17,778 17,778 17,778 20,000
Made
Cost per 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Cookie
COGS 2,667 2,567 3,227 3,549 4,392 4,858 5,000 5,000 4,444 4,444 4,444 5,000
Gross 9,333 8,983 11,293 12,423 15,373 17,004 17,500 17,500 15,556 15,556 15,556 17,500
Profit
O&A 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44
ratio
O&A 5,280 5,082 6,389 7,028 8,697 9,619 9,900 9,900 8,800 8,800 8,800 9,900
expense
This 4,053 3,901 4,904 5,395 6,676 7,385 7,600 7,600 6,756 6,756 6,756 7,600
month's
cash
End of 4,053 7,954 12,858 18,254 24,930 32,315 39,915 47,515 54,271 61,027 67,783 75,383
month
Cash
Balance
ASSUMPTIONS
From MBA class lecture notes, adoption curve percentages are used for revenue smoothing (Lefkowitz,
2010).
Expense ratios are based on the Bakery industry average of 44% for small businesses (Troy, 2008, pg.
48).
Pro Forma Income Analysis
This business will have positive cash flow from the first month of business. The product is
offered at a fair price that will generate a net profit of 34% of revenue with expenses estimated at
44% of revenue based upon bakery industry averages for NAICS codes 311800 (Troy, 2009, pg.
48).
Rati
o Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
Revenu 100 12,00 11,55 14,52 15,97 19,76 21,86 22,50 22,50 20,00 20,00 20,00 22,50 223,26
e 0 0 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
(curved)
COGS 22 2,667 2,567 3,227 3,549 4,392 4,858 5,000 5,000 4,444 4,444 4,444 5,000 49,614
Gross 78 9,333 8,983 11,29 12,42 15,37 17,00 17,50 17,50 15,55 15,55 15,55 17,50 173,65
Profit 3 3 3 4 0 0 6 6 6 0 5
O&A 44 5,280 5,082 6,389 7,028 8,697 9,619 9,900 9,900 8,800 8,800 8,800 9,900 98,238
expense
Net 34 4,053 3,901 4,904 5,395 6,676 7,385 7,600 7,600 6,756 6,756 6,756 7,600 75,417
Profit
ASSUMPTIONS
From MBA class lecture notes, adoption curve percentages are used for revenue smoothing (Lefkowitz,
2010).
Expense ratios are based on the Bakery industry average of 44% for small businesses (Troy, 2008, pg.
48).
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
The owners will need to invest $22,605 to start the business, as shown on the balance sheet
below.
Start up expenses for this business will include leasing the space, acquiring pre-owned
furniture, pre-owned fixtures, and pre-owned kitchen equipment (including dishes and utensils).
Tenant improvements may be needed, as well as signage and business computer equipment. In
addition to these fixed capital items, we will need consumables such as restaurant supplies and
office supplies. Then there are also services to pay for including printing, licenses, and permits.
Pre-owned equipment prices were averaged from current listings on e-bay with knowledge of
standard industry prices from several years of work at Williams-Sonoma cooking specialty retailer
Furniture ($900).
Secondary market research demonstrated that cookie store patrons prefer to have the option
to sit inside or outside. Therefore there is a need for indoor and outdoor tables and chairs, and
some sort of shade in the form of umbrellas or awnings for the outdoor seating area. Outdoor patio
bistro sets for two can be purchased for $100 each through discount retailers. Two would be
needed, for a total of $200 for outdoor tables/chairs. Indoor sets to match would be 4 for $100
each for a total of $400 for indoor tables/chairs. Two umbrellas with stands would be needed for
outdoors, at $150 each and can be branded with the company logo for better visibility and
Fixtures ($2,000).
Fixtures that may be needed include ensuring that all plumbing and lighting are in good
working order. Estimate $600 for these items. Two bakery cases with lighting and temperature
One pre-owned Vulcan commercial triple oven at $1,200, plus one rolling bake rack at
$100 with 20 commercial cookie sheets at $7 each to fill the rack will be required. Two electric
hot plates will also be needed at $20 each, plus one well-hidden small microwave in the prep area
(not to be used for re-warming anything!) for melting chocolate without burning it at $25. An
industrial 3 bay sink with appropriate sanitizer and drainage is also required at $800 (may be
included in the leased space, see below)*. A commercial refrigerator with prep counter for $1,215
is required, and a commercial freezer at $500. An additional 4 stainless steel prep surfaces will be
needed at $100 each, plus two units of shelving for dishes and utensils at $80 each. And two
commercial quality KSM-5 stand mixers will also be required at $300 each.
Secondary market research demonstrated that cookie store patrons prefer an air conditioned
the air system must be in good working order for the comfort of patrons and employees. Ideally,
we will not lease a location that requires any improvements to the air system, and therefore will
save costs in this area, but realistically we will budget $2,000 for any unforeseen needs.
Signs ($8,600).
Signage will be needed for the storefront and for any local directional signs, such as a mall
marquee. Signage costs are $1,600 for a standard storefront sign lit with aluminum floodlights. A
Our personal computer is in need of repair at $500, so that it can be used for the business.
Internet service would need to be paid for also. Backup memory storage will be needed in case of
equipment or software failure at $120. We will avoid a computerized cash register for simplicity
and ambience.
Local space lease rates, as gathered from craigslist san diego, show that there is a restaurant
space of 750 sq. ft. in the college area which includes the three bay sanitation sink for $1,200 per
month. *This would save the $800 start up cost estimated for a three bay sink.
inventory. Aprons, chef pants, logo jackets and prep towels will be required at $200 per kitchen
worker also with 2 workers at the start of business. Paper towels, toilet paper, and cleaning
These include pens, paper, ink for the printer, stapler, scissors, scotch tape, and paperclips
and other miscellaneous office supplies for a total of $200 at start up. An old-fashioned
mechanical cash register will be obtained for $100, and we will need a small safe for cash and
Mixing bowls, prep bowls, and measuring cups will be needed for two kitchen workers at
$75 each. The owners have a personal collection of over 300 specialty cookie cutters that will be
These include spoons and scrapers as well as cookie spatulas and rolling pins at
approximately $75 per kitchen worker with 2 kitchen workers. The owners will also provide some
This will include business cards at approximately $25, preprinted bakery receipt books at
$100, and any promotional printing or advertising with a start-up budget of $500.
The executive chef has an up to date ServSafe certificate as well as a current food handler
permit. The second kitchen worker will need a food handler permit at $25. State sales tax permit
which is free, and local business license for $75 will need to be acquired, as well as a health permit
for the location estimated at $500 and a fictitious business name fee of $30. Details were obtained
from the County of San Diego website and the “Guide to Opening a New Food Business in San
Diego County” (County of San Diego, 2010a; County of San Diego, 2010b).
Start-Up Expenses
Leased space 1,200
Restaurant Supplies 1,100
Office Supplies 400
Kitchen dishes 150
Kitchen utensils 150
Printing 625
Licenses & permits 630
Total start-up expenses 4,105
Capital Needs
Analysis
Working Capital 0
Fixed Capital 18,500
Start-up expense 4,105
NOTE
Fixed capital needs
were reduced with pre-
owned items at approx.
50% savings.
starting our own business. It is clean and simple, with little or no debt looming at the beginning of
the enterprise to add unnecessary financial pressure to the challenges of starting a business. We
Narrative Conclusions
The business itself is financially viable with break even in the first month at 34% of
revenue. Start up costs are reasonable provided that the larger items are purchased pre-owned.
The owners will need to invest the start up capital of $22,605 in order to start the business with
no long term debts. Net profit in the first year will be just over $75,000.
Operations Plan
The plan for operations includes an organization chart and job descriptions, a summary of
owner qualifications to run the business, and daily management plans. Also included are details on
the legal form of business, insurance, licenses, production, supply chain, and trademarks.
The legal form of business is a sole proprietorship. The owner will file schedule C for the
Staffing Plan
The staffing plan for the first year is for the owners to do all of the work themselves. Virginia
will be the operations manager and the point of contact for customer service, and David will be the
Executive Chef. Since they are owners of the business, the business itself will have no employees,
Virginia has extensive experience and training in customer service, and David has over 20
years of culinary experience and training. Owners of a business are highly motivated to see their
operations succeed.
Organizational Chart.
The organizational chart for the first year is extremely simple, with Virginia as the Sole
David J. Damrauer
Executive Chef
Risk Management
Virginia’s father works in the insurance industry and he will be consulted to ensure that
insurance needs are being met for the business. Insurance will be needed for General Liability,
Insurance.
General liability insurance will cover things like slip and fall incidents. Product liability
insurance covers any illness or allergic reactions to the product. Property insurance is to protect
against any damage such as vandalism. Business Loss insurance is used when a business is
Contractual
An attorney will be retained to assist with all contracts, leases, and licenses. These will
include any business space leases, insurance contracts, supply contracts, health permits, license
Other needs for the business will include research and development of new products,
management of the supply chain, and the establishment of production and service procedures.
We plan to start with family recipe cookies, and then monitor their success. More
successful products will be analyzed for commonalities, and then new products can be developed
Supply Chain.
The supply chain will have to be established very clearly. Ingredient and supply orders
will be placed once a week with major suppliers who will deliver to the premises once a week.
Production Procedures.
Culinary industry standard procedures, such as mise en place, will be used to ensure a
clean and safe production environment that is in compliance with all health regulations.
Service Procedures.
Customer service will be critical, as word of mouth is an essential good marketing tool for
Implementation Plan
A six month implementation plan is outlined in the following table. This is the steps needed to
tangible items
CONCLUSION AND STATEMENT OF VIABILITY
The cookie business itself is a very viable venture. Cash flow is positive in the first
month, and net profit is 34% of revenue generated. Start up expenses are $22,605 with a net
profit in the first year of just over $75,000. Competitive intelligence demonstrates that this local
industry is both sustainable and profitable, with two of the top competitors generating over
$500,000 in annual revenue and they have been in business for over 15 years each.
Further primary market research will need to be conducted regarding the ideal location
for the business. Location will be critical to generate the appropriate volume of business.
Shopping mall patrons will need to be surveyed, and further studies should be done at the
area. An attorney will be hired to help with all contracts and licensing, and a graphic designer will
be hired to help with branding and advertising. A six month implementation schedule will be
followed beginning January 1, 2011. One Good Cookie is going to be one good business.
REFERENCES
City of San Diego. (2010). Business license company directory. Retrieved from
http://www.sandiego.gov/directories/business.shtml
http://sdpublic.sdcounty.ca.gov
County of San Diego. (2010b). Guide to Opening a New Food Business in San Diego County.
http://www.funcookies.com
Lefkowitz, H. (2010, August-September). MGT 610C Lecture Notes. La Jolla, CA: National
University.
Manta.com (2010c, September). Uncle Biff’s Killer Cookies. Retrieved from Manta.com
National University. (2010, January 1). Graduate Business Project Handbook. La Jolla, CA:
National University.
http://www.seaportvillage.com
http://410degrees.com
Troy, L. (2008). Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios. Chicago, IL: CCH.
http://unclebiffskillercookies.com
US Census Bureau. (2000). Demographic Data. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov
Yelp.com (2010d, September). Uncle Biff’s Killer Cookies. Retrieved from yelp.com
APPENDIX A – RESUMES
Sauces
Health and Nutrition
Degrees
2010 Master of Business Administration, Marketing emphasis (in progress), National University
2010 Master of Fine Arts, Videogame Production, National University, Honors
2007 Master of Library and Information Science, San Jose State University
1993 Bachelor of Arts , History major, Biology minor, UCSD Revelle College, Regents Scholar
Related Employment
2006-present Library System Administrator, National University Library System
2005-2006 Instruction Librarian, National University Library System
2003- 2005 Document Delivery Specialist, National University Library System
2000-2002 Administrative/Database Assistant, SDSU Foundation
1999-2000 GS-05, Secretary (Office Automation), Internal Revenue Service, Salt Lake City
1998 Administrative Assistant, Plant Operations Data Systems, University of Utah
1997 Program Representative, Information Technology, UCSD Extension
1993-1996 Administrative Assistant, UCSD Extension
Selected Publications
Hire, V. C., & Lockerby, R. A. (2008). Accessibility of psychology and education test kits:
Identifying common practices and problems. Journal of Interlibrary Loan, Document
Delivery & Electronic Reserve, 18(2), 181-193.
Hire, V. C. (2007). Academic Libraries, Student Expectations, and College Admissions (Master’s
thesis). Available from ProQuest Dissertations and Theses database.
Selected Presentations & Posters
Stillwell, B. N., Hire, V. C., & Lockerby, R. A. (2010, March). Academic Library in a Virtual
World: Library Services to a Growing Online Teacher Education Population. Poster
session presented at the Society of Information Technology in Education Conference, San
Diego, CA.
Stillwell, B. N., Hire, V. C., & Lockerby, R. A. (2010, March). Advanced Research in Education
Tutorial and Quiz. Poster session presented at the Society of Information Technology in
Education Conference, San Diego, CA.
Hire, V. C. (2010, March). Academic Library Sharing Session. Conference session led at the
SirsiDynix Conference, Tampa, FL.
Hire, V. C. (2008, April). Catalog Search Box for MySpace. Conference session led at the
SirsiDynix Conference, Detroit, MI.
Hire, V. C. (2008, January). Academic Libraries, Student Expectations, and College Admissions
(Master’s thesis). Paper presented at the Hawaii International Conference on Education,
Honolulu, HI.
Selected Instruction
Hire, V. C. (2005-present). Library Instruction [Classes or Individuals]. National University, San
Diego, CA.
Green, V. C. (2002, May). Intermediate Microsoft Excel for Research Administrators [Hands-
On]. Three hour computer workshop developed and presented twice at the Society of
Research Administrators Western Region, Tucson, AZ.
Reviewer
Hire, V. C. (2010, April). CIS 620 Capstone presentations. National University, San Diego, CA.
Hire, V. C. (2007, May). Innovation & Technology session proposals. Library Orientation
Exchange, San Diego, CA.
Committees
2005-2006 2006 Conference Planning, Association of Mental Health Librarians
2001-2002 Purchase Order Process Improvement, SDSU Foundation
Memberships
1993 UCSD Alumni Association, Lifetime Member
APPENDIX B – SURVEY QUESTIONS
*
1. What is your zip code at home?
What is your zip code at work and/or at school?
92124 Tierrasanta
Other
(please specify)
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*
2. How do you find out about new stores or where do you get your information?
Internet
Radio
Television
Word of Mouth
Other
(please specify)
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*
3. Would you buy a new local cookie from a store that only sells cookies?
Yes
No
Comments
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*
4. What is a fair price for a freshly baked 3” diameter cookie in a unique flavor that you will not find anywhere else?
Under $1 each
$2 or more each
Comments
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*
5. What time of day would you most likely buy a cookie from a store that only sells cookies (mark up to three of the
following):
Before work/school
Morning
Lunchtime
Afternoon
After work/school
Evening
Late Night
Other
(please specify)
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*
6. In which of the following locations would you most likely buy a cookie from a store that only sells cookies?
At the mall
On vacation
Downtown
Other
(please specify)
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*
7. In your mind, what is a good color for the logo of a cookie store, something that says ‘fresh’ ‘warm’ and ‘tasty’
when you see it?
Pink
Red
Peach
Orange
Green
Blue
Violet
Brown
Other
(please specify)
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*
8. Which of the following names for a cookie store would be most appealing to you?
Damrauer's Cookies
Other
(please specify)
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*
9. What suggestions would you offer to someone who wants to open a unique cookie store in your area?
*
10. Approximately how much do you spend or budget in one week for sweets like
cookies, ice cream, chocolate, or candy?
Zero
$5 or less
$5 to $10
$10 to $20
$20 or more
Comments