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CIE4760 – Assessment of Transport Infrastructure and Systems
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EXAMPLE EXAMINATION
For this exam you are allowed to use a pen, paper, a calculator (regular or graphics), and an
English‐English dictionary. Books, lecture notes and smartphones are not allowed during the
exam.
The exam consists of 8 questions for which in total 100 points can be gained.
Overview:
‐ Question 1: ‘Reasons for applying a formal appraisal method’ [10 points]
‐ Question 2: ‘Valuation Methods’ [10 points]
‐ Question 3: ‘Financial Analysis’ [20 points]
‐ Question 4: ‘Types of Effects’ [10p]
‐ Question 5: ‘Distribution Impacts’ [10p]
‐ Question 6: ‘Valuation of Reliability’ [15 points]
‐ Question 7: ‘Appraisal Methods’ [15 points]
‐ Question 8: ‘Case Peak Hour Avoidance’ [10 points]
Please answer the questions in English.
Question 1: ‘Reasons for applying a formal appraisal method’ [10 points]
There can be different reasons for decision makers to use a formal appraisal method for
transport project decisions, such as a CBA.
One such reason is the instrumental one which results in a direct and immediate implementation
of recommendations following from the analysis.
1.1 Indicate two other reasons for applying a formal appraisal method, give a short explanation
and an example. [4p]
For politicians, like ministers or members of parliament, there can be barriers for using (the
results of a) CBA in forming and expressing an opinion.
1.2 Indicate four reasons why politicians feel a barrier to use (results of a) CBA; give a short
explanation. [6p]
Question 2: ‘Valuation Methods’ [10 points]
One important aspect of performing monetary analyses, including CBAs, is to get appropriate
monetary values for various impacts.
Related to safety impacts, we can distinguish different valuation approaches.
2.1 Describe the ‘Restitution Costs’ method (shortly), and give an example for an type of safety
impact that can be valued by applying this method [3p].
2.2 Describe the ‘Human Capital Approach’ (shortly), and give an example for an type of safety
impact that can be valued by applying this method [3p].
2.3 Describe the ‘Willingness to Pay’ method (shortly), and give an example for an type of safety
impact that can be valued by applying this method [4p].
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For both transport investment projects A and B the investment costs are 1 million Euro, the expected
revenues, however, are different; see table below:
3.1 Calculate the present values for the revenues in various years for projects A and B respectively
and calculate the totals; apply a discount rate of 6%. [6p]
3.2 Argue why the present value of the total benefit of project A (total of column 2) is so much lower
than the simple sum of project investments and revenues of project A (column 1) [4p]
Private transport infrastructure investments must be financed via shareholders (equity) or via loans.
The ‘weighted average cost of capital (WACC)’ can be seen as the hurdle rate for an investor.
3.3 Calculate the WACC if the cost of debt (interest rate) is 3%, the cost of equity (dividend) 7,91%,
the marginal tax rate 25% and the equity ratio for a specific investor is 70%. [4p]
3.4 The Internal Rate of Return of the project A is calculated at 6,5%. Analysis shows that there are
high risks involved in getting the future revenues. Knowing this, is it a good decision to invest in
this project? [3p]
3.5 The investor decides to go on with the project. Even if equity is expensive, what is an important
reason for the investor not borrow all the money? [3p]
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A transport intervention can have ‘internal’ and ‘external’ effects.
4.1 Explain what an internal effect is and name two ‘internal’ effects of a transport intervention [2p]
4.2 Explain what an external effect is and name five ‘external’ effects of a transport intervention [2p]
We can also distinguish ‘market’ from ‘non‐market’ effects.
An example of a non‐market effect is travel time.
4.3 Name a ‘non‐market’ effect ‐ except for travel time or barrier effect ‐ and explain why the chosen
effect has no (direct) economic value; [2p]
4.4 Describe approaches or methods to give a monetary value to travel time based on
(4.4a) working time [2p]
and one for
(4.4b) non‐working time [2p]
Question 5: ‘Distribution Impacts’ [10p]
‘Distribution Impacts (DIs)’ consider the variance of transport intervention impacts across different
social groups.
Analyse a self‐selected example of a passenger transport intervention in an urban area that can have
different impacts for different social groups:
5.1 Describe the type of transport intervention [1p];
5.2 List three types of impacts that can affect social groups differently [2p];
5.3 Identify two different social groups, and explain why each of the three indicate impacts can be
beneficial and/or adverse for these groups [6p].
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A current municipal bus based public transport system services 7,5 million travellers per year, and
this amount of travellers is not expected to change over the years. On average, the in‐vehicle time is
18 minutes and the waiting time 5 minutes.
After visiting an Expo, the Elderman of the municipality responsible for public transport, has become
very much in favour to replace the current bus system by a fancy automated transport system.
This alternative requires an investment of 80 million Euros. When the alternative is operational, the
in‐vehicle time is 15 minutes and the waiting time 6 minutes.
1. Calculate the Benefit / Cost ratio of the alternative as compared to the base case, taking into
account a discount rate of 7% (r), an analysis period of 30 years (Y), an average VoT of 8 €/hr
and only investments and travel time costs. [6p]
Recent insight show that we should value reliability as well.
Analysis show that the current bus system is quite unreliable: it has an in average additional in‐
vehicle time of 4,9 minutes and an additional waiting time of 2,9 minutes. There are no delays
expected in the alternative case. Because delays hamper accurate planning by travellers, they are
valued at a value of time of 10€ per hour.
2. Recalculate the Benefit / Cost ratio of the alternative as compared to the base case including
taking into account the delays. [5p]
3. Does taking into account the delays make a significant difference? And if so, what could be
the consequences for the decision process? [3p]
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Cost‐Benefit Analysis is used as a tool to help to decide whether a project is feasible in socio‐
economic terms, to objectively select from alternatives or to prioritise projects.
However, some analysts criticize the CBA approach and prefer other appraisal or ex‐ante evaluation
approaches.
7.1 List three cases where cost‐benefit analysis could help in decision making processes. [2p]
7.2 List five barriers which could hamper politicians from using cost‐benefit analysis in forming their
opinion. [3p]
In the recent years, the maximum speed limit on a lot of Dutch highways is raised from 120 km/h to
130 km/h, resulting in shorter travel times. The investment costs for this measure were modest, and
the Ministry of Transport claims a very positive CBA.
7.3 Discuss the validity of this claim.
If you really like to illustrate your view with calculations, take a stretch of highway of 20
kilometres with 12,5 mio travellers annually, an analysis period of 30 years a needed investment
of 5 mio euro and realistic assumptions for discount rate and VoT. [5p]
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As an alternative for enhancing a highway with additional lanes, the innovative concept of ‘peak hour
avoidance’ is proposed.
In such a scheme, motorists that usually travel during peak hours could apply for a financial reward if
they agree not to travel during peak hours anymore. The financial rewards for the participants count
for 90% of the overall costs of the scheme.
The scheme is implemented: it turns out that about 15% of the motorists that used to travel during
peak hours participate in the scheme, and do not travel during those peak hours anymore.
The participants of the scheme no longer encounter travel time delays, experience lower fuel costs
and cause less emissions. These effects are monetarized and are presented as the total overall
benefits of the scheme.
1. Please indicate whether this is a correct estimation or perhaps an under‐ or overestimation;
explain your answer. [5p]
Based on (correct) assumptions on the effects and the monetarization thereof, the B/C ratio of the
scheme analysed for a period of one year is 2,1 and the B/C ratio for highway enhancement with two
lanes is 0,95. For an analysis period of ten years however, the B/C ratio for the scheme is 2,23 and for
the highway enhancement 2,87.
Explain why on the longer term the highway enhancement becomes more attractive. [5p]
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