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1. Online retail
■ Fulfilment and delivery network
■ Shopping experience
■ Customer value proposition
2. Amazon devices: gateways to magic worlds
■ Kindle
■ Fire Tablet, Phone
■ Fire TV and Prime Video
■ Echo, Alexa and AI
■ Business models: Kindle, Prime Video, Alexa
3. Amazon Web Services
4. Amazon Prime
5. Fundamental business model principles
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Online retail
Amazon has long surpassed the competition in terms of online sales. They
are getting closer to the top of overall retail (including brick-and-mortar retail).
Amazon revenues
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Amazon is a class of its own in the online retail space [source: statista]
newer stat here but no significant change in relative positions
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At the heart of Amazon’s retail business model success is its delivery and
fulfilment network.
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As of 2018, Amazon has over 300 facilities in the US alone. The facilities fall
into a number of categories:
Each of these fulfilment facilities has its distinct characteristics and functions.
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All ways lead to the customer: not all products go through Amazon’s
fulfilment and delivery network. The fulfilment network has several
layers that products ordered can go through
Despite massive warehousing space, even Amazon can only hold a fraction of
all the goods they sell. Many products actually never go through Amazon’s
fulfilment and delivery network. Upon order through the Amazon pages, they
will be directly shipped to the customer. In other cases, the ordered goods
could be shipped to Amazon and packaged with goods in the same order and
then sent to the customer. Cost and delivery times will be the determinant
which path the ordered goods flow.
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Optimising for the key cost drivers is no easy feat as these don’t always move
in the same direction, e.g. you can build more facilities closer to the end
customer to reduce transport costs but you obviously increase facility costs as
part of unit costs.
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One crucial KPI in the context of order fulfilment is the cash conversion cycle
(explained here)and inventory turnover.
Negative cash conversion cycles basically mean that Amazon uses their
suppliers’ cash to operate and grow. But it also shows on a macro level that
Amazon’s fulfilment infrastructure is efficient. They are comparing well on this
dimension to the other big players in the retail industry.
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Many retailers see their transport and delivery units as cost centres only.
Amazon has a number of business model innovations in place to turn these
traditional cost centres into revenue making units. One way Amazon offsets
high costs is by opening up their capital-intensive infrastructure to external
customers. Here are some of the examples that I have described in more
detail in the above link:
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Amazon Marketplace
More than 50% of items (in terms of units, not revenues) sold through the
Amazon pages are from 3rd party sellers. One prominent recent seller is Nike
after resisting for a long time. But most 3rd party sellers are much smaller.
Amazon has opened their pages to 3rd party sellers in 2002 and the share of
those sales has increased continuously.
Amazon Marketplace falls under the platform business model that I have
described in many articles. The revenue model is often a transaction fee as a
percentage of the sales. This is often combined with other revenue sources,
e.g. advertising as well as FBA, SWA, etc.
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Amazon has increasingly insourced elements of the delivery network and then
opened it up to external customers as a service. They have started with the
last-mile delivery using Amazon Flex drivers but have increasingly expanded
on this.
Amazon offers “free” shipping on millions of eligible items for an annual (or
monthly) subscription fee for Amazon Prime. $8b of these revenues are being
attributed to fulfilment and delivery services. “Free” shipping was at the core of
Amazon Prime and is still being valued highly within the overall Prime
package as we will see a bit later.
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Amazon is growing in many directions at the same time. On the one hand,
they are extending their fulfilment and delivery infrastructure and associated
services. On the other hand, they are also expanding into more categories.
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While only a fraction of food/groceries are sold online, it is one of the largest
forecasted growth areas for online sales.
Online food and alcohol sales in the US are forecasted to grow by >25%
YOY over the next few years [source: statista]
Here are some of Amazon’s endeavours in the categories that are trailing
have yet to meaningfully shift to online retail.
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Food/groceries:
Furniture:
■ Extensive range of Amazon and 3rd party furniture and appliances
choices
■ Dedicated fulfilment facilities specialising on large items, such as
furniture, sports equipment and more (Redsland, CA)
■ In the US, Amazon is already the largest online retailer of furniture
and appliances with almost double the revenue of runner-up
Homedepot
■ Online furniture sales has a projected compound annual growth
rate of 11.9% (CAGR) between 2018-2022
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Apparel:
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Pharmacy/medication:
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The playbook
These are a few examples of retail categories that Amazon is expanding into.
Each category would deserve their own article. But I hope it gives you an
insight into how Amazon enters/grows new product categories:
A lot of Amazon’s revenue growth will come from these areas (even though
they may not get as much media attention).
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Amazon ticks all boxes (and sets the benchmark for some of them) when
it comes to online retail experience [source: statista]
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1-click
Amazon has patented their 1-click solution in 1999. It is probably the most
convenient checkout option around. Knowing of its value, Amazon defended it
legally against early competition. They managed to keep large parts protected
under the patent and forced e.g. Barnes & Noble to refrain from copying the
functionality. They licensed it to Apple for use in the iTunes store. The patent
has expired in 2017 which means you will see it spread.
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Review system
Apart from low prices, reviews are one of the most important factors driving
customer decisions. Would you buy something low-rated just because it’s
cheap? Likely not. Reviews are also one of the most important factors for the
ranking of products on search pages. With this, there is big money at stake for
sellers. And that means there are people trying to rig the system with fake
reviews.
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In the earlier days, Amazon’s pages were purely functional (if I may say that)
centred around the search function which is likely still the most-used function.
But with an ever-increasing amount of selection navigability and browseability
have become more important. Here are a few examples of Amazon’s
enhancements in this space:
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Filters
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Navigation
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Browsing
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Personalisation
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The value proposition combined the on-page and off-page elements that we
have talked about.
Take for example the first item, prices. You can only offer cheaper prices
sustainably than your competition if you have a lower cost structure. For an
online retailer, that translates into a cheaper-than-competition fulfilment and
delivery infrastructure, sourcing, etc.
This infrastructure also underpins some of the other reasons people purchase
on Amazon, such as fast shipping and selection (selection requires respective
special fulfilment and delivery capabilities as mentioned above).
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Pricing strategies
Amazon uses many pricing strategies that I have explained in detail here
This concludes Amazon’s online retail overview which is the biggest revenue
generator (but at razor-thin margins). We are moving onto the other
fascinating parts of Amazon which are also starting to make serious revenues.
You can read the whole article on Amazon’s 3 customer value propositions
here …
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The Kindle is a much bigger endeavour than just an ereader. It is not only
disrupting brick-and-mortar bookstores but also the publishing industry. And
there is yet more. Amazon Kindle, Fire TV, Tablet, Echo and Alexa are
gateways to something much more complex on the other side of the screen.
And they have a number of characteristics in common:
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The revenues made from the sales of the physical units (Kindle reader, Fire
TV stick, Echo Dot) typically seem to cover Amazon’s own costs. We don’t
know this for sure as Amazon doesn’t reveal its numbers. Some experts are
disassembling the respective gadgets and adding up the costs of the
individual parts and their conclusion is that Amazon doesn’t make any profit.
Amazon’s sales of Echo, Fire TV and Kindle made an estimated $305m in the
first half of 2017 according to one analyst’s estimates. While impressive, it’s
still a good 95% lower than Apple’s iPhone sale in the same period.
Amazon electronics sales made $305m in the first half of 2017 according
to one analyst’s estimates
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This is quite typical where companies want to establish an installed base with
a low base unit price and considerable profit margins for the consumable unit.
Think of razors and blades (the famous razors-and-blades model), inkjet
printers and the cartridge or gaming consoles and the actual games.
A press announcement from 2010 – 2.5 years after launch – gives us a data
point: “We’ve reached a tipping point with the new price of Kindle–the growth
rate of Kindle device unit sales has tripled since we lowered the price from
$259 to $189,” Jeff Bezos, Founder and CEO. A reduction of 27% from the
initial price on the base unit led to a 200% increase in sales of the
consumable units (ebooks).
But this is still all very macro level and we would not be satisfied with an
insight that King Camp Gillette had over 100 years ago (and John D
Rockefeller over 150 years ago). I argue that Amazon’s strategy is different
and the Kindle system offers valuable clues what it all is about.
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If it was about the razor-and-blades model Amazon would price the eReader
low just to price the ebooks high. Looking at their pricing structure this is not
the case (benchmarked to the book industry):
■ The incentives for readers to join the Kindle system are low prices
on the Kindle reader and books
■ The incentives for authors are independence from traditional
publishers, higher royalties and a broader range of rights on their
work
■ The traditional publishers, too, will not ignore Kindle as an
additional sales channel once there are enough readers
■ With this, the conclusion is clear: Amazon’s low prices for both
sides (creators and consumers) is to stoke indirect network
effects that underpin all platform business models
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Of course, the traditional low unit profit, high sales volume that underpins
most of mass retail still persists but this model is more sophisticated. It is not
about selling the consumable unit (ebooks) at ridiculous margins (as in the
case of some razor blades or inkjet cartridges).
The Kindle platform has already disrupted traditional bookstores who still had
growth in the first ten years after Amazon appeared but then fell off a cliff
when Kindle was introduced.
Traditional publishers are the next domino piece. Not only can authors now
bypass the traditional gatekeepers via self-published eBooks. But they can
now publish paperbacks via Amazon. And it does not have to end there.
Amazon could well enter the higher value-adding functions, such as editing
and illustrations via their professional service marketplace. This would leave
no place to hide for the traditional publishers. What this would mean for
innovation and quality of future books remains everybody’s guess.
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We get these insights from a smart bunch of guys who have written algorithms
that scan over a million Amazon pages each day to re-engineer daily sales
figures. Comparing these deep insights to the data of traditional analysts
(which is used by many industry participants for their decisions) is
eye-opening.
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There are too many important conclusions (here the direct link to the section
of my Kindle article). I can’t repeat all the points made there. But take as one
highlight that a whole lot of industry investment decisions (which books to
publish, promote, shelf space, franchise investments, etc) are being made
with 50% of the data missing, and worse yet, with the available data telling the
wrong story.
The data above is compiled by scanning over a million Amazon pages daily.
And that means: Amazon has the full picture!
Read my full Kindle article for all the intriguing details (or bookmark to read
later) …
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Content
For most of the content, which is not exclusive to Prime, Prime Video also is
only one distribution channel. It offers various types of content:
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Amazon Originals are an important way to differentiate their offering and get
subscribers:
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Whether or not the hypothesis of getting young affluent customers into the
Prime/Amazon system via Prime Video and Amazon Originals is one of the
experiments that Amazon will be tracking closely with the data they are
capturing. And it is an experiment worth keeping an eye on over the next
years.
Check out the full article on Amazon Prime Video’s innovative business
models …
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Amazon has also entered the phone and tablet space with varying success.
Fire phone
The Fire phone ended unsuccessfully. Fire phone 1G introduced in June 2014
was never followed by another generation of phones due to the commercial
failure of the initial phone. Fire phone was discontinued from August 2015.
Fire tablet
Amazon had more success with its own line of tablet, called Fire Tablet. The
latest line is the Fire 8G released in 2017. The later generations are available
as HD or HDX (being the high-end model) with higher resolution, faster
processor, etc. As of earlier this year (2018), Fire tablet was the second best
selling tablet after Apple’s tablets, however, at significantly higher growth rates
than Apple’s devices.
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Fire OS
Amazon has its own operating system (OS) which is based on Android. They
have forked Android and customised the user interface to feature their own
ecosystems. Amazon’s apps, such as Amazon Appstore, Prime Video,
Amazon Music, Audible, and Kindle Store come with their Fire OS.
Android offers two (free) licensing models, the Android Open Source Project
(AOSP) and the Google Mobile Services (GMS). GMS is the more advanced
version but comes preinstalled with Google’s apps.
AOSP is more basic and most importantly does not have the Google Play
store and with that not way to access the >2m Android apps. Not many
companies have the resources to build their own app store hence will use
GMS.
Not so Amazon. They have built their own app store most likely based on the
fact they can promote their own apps and other strategic considerations.
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Amazon Appstore
Launched in 2011 at the time of the Amazon Tablet introduction, Amazon’s
App store came with a mere 3,800 apps available. This confined ecosystem is
a significant limitation to the customer value proposition. Over the years, more
developers have made their apps available on Amazon Appstore. The sales
success of their tablet helped to increase the installed base which incentivised
developers to make their apps available on Amazon Appstore.
Amazon keeps 30% of revenues of each app sales and passes the remaining
70% onto the developer. The low price of the tablet was essential to trigger
the virtuous cycle of hardware sales and an increasing amount of apps
becoming available (similar to the Kindle).
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Twitch
Amazon has done remarkably well in the space of these type of personal
electronic devices. However, strategically, they are an early follower in this
space rather than the leading innovator.
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Now we are getting to one of Amazon’s biggest bets; one that promises to
change how humans interact with machines. Amazon’s AI-based voice
recognition system Alexa that underpins their Echo home pod devices.
Amazon has taken the lead among such powerful competition as Apple,
Microsoft and Google in terms of smart speaker shipments (but Apple’s Siri
leads on the dimension of most frequent usage). Amazon has also taken a
somewhat different approach than the other giants in the architecture of their
smart speakers:
1. The other three have initially used their respective smart assistants
(Microsoft: Cortana; Apple: Siri; Google Assistant) to control their
ecosystem of devices and services
2. E.g. Cortana can be used to control Windows, Siri can be used to
control one’s iPhone
3. Amazon has done that too, e.g. you can control Fire TV through
Alexa or Alexa can read your Kindle book (and will pick up where
you last stopped)
4. But they immediately took the next step. They have initiated an
ecosystem of Alexa-controllable 3rd party devices
5. The others will undoubtedly ramp up their efforts to catch up on
Amazon’s lead on this dimension, here is what Apple does
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Alexa has over 50,000 skills (=dedicated apps for Alexa), over 20,000
products across 3,500 brands. While Apple, for example, is playing catch-up
they are not exactly starting from scratch. Through the introduction of SiriKit,
they are tapping into their over 2m apps. These don’t yet have Siri integration
but the install base of iPhones is obviously an attractive interface for all
app/device developers to get connected to.
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Powerful indirect network effects are one of the most prevailing benefits that
connects device manufacturers, users and the smart assistant platform. One
research paper (based on Amazon data) states “According to data cited by
Rausch, businesses saw a 43 percent lift in business in the nine months after
launching an Alexa-enabled product… Rausch, again citing Amazon’s data,
said that when a company … Works With Alexa capabilities into their product
(meaning you could ask Alexa to control that device) businesses on average
see a 53 percent boost to their business almost immediately.”
This is one aspect but there are other valuable network effects that come with
smart assistants.
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Use cases are important to the customer value proposition. Here is a brief list
of what Alexa and connected devices can do at this stage.
Amazon has been working secretly for years to be one of the early/first
movers on this new value proposition and platform.
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The most frequent use cases are simple but smartphones, too, started
with a bunch of simple apps in the early days just to conquer the world.
What is the trajectory of smart assistants going to look like?
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Integration
The way Amazon has integrated Alexa services is important and different to
smartphone apps.
1. A large part of the Alexa skills run on the cloud on Amazon Web
Services (to be paid for on a pay-per-use model)
2. There are APIs for various sets of functionalities that 3rd party
developers have access to
3. This is essential to making any Alexa-enabled device controllable
through any Alexa-input device
4. There is some configuration to be done which happens through the
Alexa app
5. This makes Alexa very powerful, e.g. control your lights and
thermostat from your car as you drive into the garage or the Alexa
app on your phone
There is a whole more interesting stuff to know about Alexa that I have
covered previously.
Read the whole piece on Amazon’s AI-powered Alexa and Echo devices here
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But what is AWS for starters? Most of AWS’ services fall under into what is
called Infrastructure as a Service. When setting up an IT architecture firms
have various options from fully in-house, on-premises to fully outsourced.
Here are the key categories:
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Always wanted to create your own social media platform? This is how
you could set up the media sharing functionality of your social platform
in AWS [Source: AWS, pdf]
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Netflix is to 100% on AWS – this is amazing given they use up 15% of internet
bandwidth (as always, there is a small caveat: recently Netflix started to
explore Google Cloud as well – but to such a small degree that we can
comfortably say that Netflix is 100% hosted on AWS which also hosts Amazon
Prime Video to 100%). Both together make 18.7% of global internet traffic.
Here is what Amazon states to be the benefits of using AWS. But instead of
using their claims, let’s look at what the Vice President, Cloud and Platform
Engineering of their largest customers, Netflix, says about their migration to
the cloud. This is a credible account from an independent super-user
perspective – I am inserting Amazon’s advertised benefits [black font]into the
excerpts of what Netflix says [blue italics font]:
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centers; we simply could not have racked the servers fast enough.
[Go global in minutes] Elasticity of the cloud allows us to add
thousands of virtual servers and petabytes of storage within
minutes, making such an expansion possible [Increase speed
and agility]
4. We rely on the cloud for all of our scalable computing and storage
needs — our business logic, distributed databases and big
data processing/analytics, recommendations, transcoding,
and hundreds of other functions that make up the Netflix
application […]
5. The cloud also allowed us to significantly increase our service
availability […] it is possible to survive failures in the cloud
infrastructure and within our own systems without impacting the
member experience […]
6. Cost reduction was not the main reason we decided to move to
the cloud. However, our cloud costs per streaming start ended
up being a fraction of those in the data center— a welcome
side benefit. [ Trade capital expense for variable expense] This
is possible due to the elasticity of the cloud, enabling us to
continuously optimize instance type mix and to grow and shrink
our footprint near-instantaneously without the need to
maintain large capacity buffers. [ Stop guessing capacity] We
can also benefit from the economies of scale that are only
possible in a large cloud ecosystem [ Benefit from massive
economies of scale]
7. Arguably, the easiest way to move to the cloud is to forklift all of
the systems, unchanged, out of the data center and drop them in
AWS. But in doing so, you end up moving all the problems and
limitations of the data center along with it. [ Stop spending money
on running and maintaining data centers] Instead, w e chose
the cloud-native approach, rebuilding virtually all of our
technology and fundamentally changing the way we operate
the company.“
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One of the most important considerations of the AWS business model is to get
to maximum utilisation while retaining optimal revenues and profits. This is
very similar to Amazon’s transport and fulfilment infrastructure. Both divisions
are capital-intensive and high fixed cost. Utilisation is key to achieve
profitability and self-funded growth. Therefore, the business model economics
is quite similar.
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AWS’ business and pricing model are closely linked with Amazon offering
strong incentives to customers to get to high utilisation on their data servers.
Here is the direct link to the section where I have covered Amazon’s pricing
strategies to incentivise usage in detail.
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Market share
Amazon is leading the Cloud competition but surely not lacking some
heavy-hitting competition [source: statista]
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Amazon Prime
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Amazon Prime
Prime is Amazon’s master subscription model and has now over 100m
subscribers. It is an unlikely bundle composed of heterogeneous offerings that
seems to have a great appeal to household consumers.
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It started with “free shipping” on millions of items (large, bulky items are
excluded). Over the years more elements have been added to this
subscription. Here some highlights:
■ Free shipping on a lot of items, 2-day shipping in many areas,
lower incremental pricing on priority/international shipping
■ Prime Video: the only way to watch Amazon Originals is to
subscribe to Prime. Also includes access to many of the popular
shows
■ Prime Music: 2 million songs (but limited to 40 hours / month)
■ Kindle: Access to a monthly changing selection of 1,000 books
■ Exclusive access to various types of deals as well as access to
media on release day
■ Prime Wardrobe: A try-before-you-buy offer for clothing with free
delivery and return
■ Rewards in conjunction with Amazon credit card
■ and lots more with additional stuff being included over time
Prime is not just the icing on the cake. With over 100 million subscribers it has
become one of Amazon’s most important pillars and a source of predictable
revenues.
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Overall
Phew, we are getting towards the end. Let us now look at a high level of the
key business model ingredients.
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(3) Bundling
You may be surprised that I call bundling out as a key principle among
Amazon’s business models. In my mind, it’s a crucial element that is not
sufficiently covered
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Data effects deserve a dedicated call out even if they are not yet extremely
well understood in their business model economics. But practitioners know of
its importance
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I hope you have enjoyed this epically long and hopefully as epically
informative article as I did!
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You too can do this. Whether in your field, adjacent to it or something totally
different. You can develop great ideas that you can be proud of!
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