RISK MAPS

Rodrigo M. Lucci*, José R. S. Martins†, José C. de M. Bernardino‡, Edmar C.

Júnior§, Rodrigo M. Carvalho**
*
Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo (EPUSP)
Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 380 - Butantã, São Paulo - SP, 05508-010
e-mail: rmlucci@usp.br

Keywords: Dams, Risk Maps, Downstream Valley Impacts, Hydrodynamic Risk

Abstract. The Brazilian legislation requires the elaboration of the Emergency Action Plan
(EAP) for dams considering the risk category and the potential damage associated with the
project. In the EAP, the Self-Rescue Zone (SRZ), which is the impacted region of the
downstream valley of the dam bounded by the distance corresponding to a flood wave with
an arrival time of thirty minutes or 10Km must be defined. Another criteria for the
classification of the impacted area by dam breaks or even the propagation of exceptional
floods may lead to a more detailed representation of impacts, such as the hydrodynami c
risk, identified by the relationship between depth and velocity. This article aims to present
and discuss updated methods for evaluate and zoning the impacted areas in the downstream
valley. Since different dams have different characteristics such as height, dyke width and
stored volume and considering that these magnitudes are directly related to the length of
the affected river reach as well as the flood wave travel time resulting in a very, the most
appropriate method to map downstream impacts of the dams can widely vary. In the present
study a comparison of impact mapping results along Rio Paranapanema, Sao Paulo, Brazil,
constructed for zones with different geometric characteristics is presented in order to
analyze the accuracy and relevance of the resulting information in the formulation of
emergency action plans.

1 INTRODUCTION
The definition of risk may encompass different factors depending on the application area.
The estimative of it results in a value that reflects the possible consequences of an undesirable
event, together with the probability of occurrence of intervening factors in the process. At the
dam safety, this concept means the probability of a structure being damaged and its
performance impaired, in addition to assessing the magnitude of the consequences1.

In Brazil, the actions to be taken in emergency situations, such as the mapping of risk
areas, are currently in the planning stage. An Emergency Action Plan (EAP) in compliance
with Article 23 of Law 12,334 / 2010 2 must contemplate the alert for potentially affected
communities, among other actions to be carried out by the dam entrepreneur in the event

†
University of Sao Paulo, School of Engineering, Brazil
‡
University of Sao Paulo, School of Engineering, Brazil
§
University of Sao Paulo, School of Engineering, Brazil
**
CTG Brasil Rio Paranapanema SA

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

of an emergency. This alert is directly related to the potentially flooded area and
consequently to the risk zone.

2 RISK ZONING CRITERIA

The Risk zoning involves some variables that are related to the characteristic of the
flood, either operational (hydrological) or coming from scenarios of dam rupture. They are:
water height, flow velocity, wave arrival time and flood duration.

For the definition of risk zoning the duration of flooding can be considered as secondary
flood wave information because it does not subsidize the design of warning systems, which
must be calculated to be triggered before the flood reaches the regions to be warned.

The International legislation defines risk zoning based on the arrival time of the flood.
In the zone of the biggest risk it is recommended self-safety as a way of evacuation, where
protection to the population is ensured by the installation of an alert system operated from
the dam3.

According to Paquier, A., (1993) 3, in France the safety zones are demarcated by the
different arrival times of the flood wave: a) zone of the quarter of an hour referring to the
arrival time of the flood of 15 minutes; b) alert zone I, an emergency plan must exist for
this zone; and (c) Zone II, where flooding is the minor significance.

The criterion for the definition of the maximum risk zone, in Portugal is the distance of
a way done by the flooding wave in 30 minutes in a minimum distance of 5 km. It is also
considered that this criterion must be verified for each dam 3.

In the United States USBR recommends that the definition of risk zones for the
implementation of warning systems must be specific for each dam, depending on the
performance and the response capacity of civil protection organizations located in the
region concerned4.

The study titled "Safety of Dams Downstream of Dams" 3 proposed criteria for the
definition of risk zoning, which was also based on the arrival time of the flood wave. In
that work, three risk zones were proposed for Portugal, the Self-Safety Zone (SSZ) where
the downstream limit is defined by the transection where the arrival time of the wave is less
than half an hour; the Main Intervention Zone (MIZ), this one is defined by the transection
wave arrival time that is longer than a half hour and less than the time between 1 and 2
hours; and, finally, the Secondary Intervention Zone (SIZ) where the downstream limit is
defined by the transection where the wave arrival time is longer than the time between 1
and 2 hours. It should be noted that for the definition of the boundary of the SSZ it is
necessary to compare the flood arrival time with the response time of the local civil
protection agents.

In Brazil, the Entrepreneur's Manual on Dams Safety 5 defines that the mapping of flood
zones must contain the delimitation of the self-safety Zone (SSZ), the same nomenclature
used by Portugal. The SSZ of Brazil is the region downstream of the dam which is
considered not enough time for intervention of the competent authorities in case of an
accident, being able to adopt the lowest of the distances between 10 km or the distance
referring to a arrival time of the 30-minute flood wave.

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

Regarding the classification of the hazard of flooding, the arrival time of the wave has
no relevance, the depths and maximum velocities of the flow are fundamental 6.

These two quantities, which are also characteristics of the flood wave, can subsidize the
zoning of the flooded areas as subdivisions of the zones defined as a function of the wave
arrival time. The subdivisions are classified according to the values of the product, depth,
and velocitiy.

In this way, the subdivisions of the flooded area will have the boundaries linked to the
hazard of the flood, which is related to the survival of people and resistance of the buildings,
and thus the zoning becomes inherent to the risk, which It is essentially function of the
consequences caused in the valley of downstream.

The classification of dangerousness of the flood caused by a flood wave originated by

the rupture or the operation of a dam, in the hydraulic area, has been studied for decades.
Table 1 shows the classification of dangerous proposed by Viseu (2008), Figure 1 and
Figure 2 show respectively the danger level for adults and children USBR (1988). At Figure
3 the graph of depth and speed presented by the researchers Martínez-Gomariz, Gómez and
Russo in 2016, brings together diverse laboratory measurements of different authors, as
well as curves as recommended limits.

Dangerous for
Hazardous to humans buildings
description Class (Uh - m² / s) (Uh - m² / s)
Reduced Green Uh <0.5 Uh <2
Average Yellow 0.5 <Uh <0.75 2 <Uh <4
Important Orange 0.75 <Uh <1 4 <Uh <5.5
Very important Red Uh> 1 Uh> 5.5
3
Table 1: Hazard classification for humans and buildings

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Figure 1: Level of danger for adults

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

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Figure 2: Level of danger to children

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Figure 3: Level of danger for adults

Based on data from Abt et al. (1989) and Karvonen et al. (2000) presented in Figure 3 four
models were developed and calibrated. One of these models was based on the mechanical
models that show important parameters as velocity, depth of the flood and the weight and height
of the exposed person. The most important thing is the multiplication of the velocity and the
depth and It´s titled drag. Its very important too the drag factor wich depends the clothes and
the exposed area8.

3 CASE STUDY - RIO PARANAPANEMA

Actualy, In Brazil, an integrated analysis of the risks related to the reservoir-dam system
and the flood valley system is not yet considered, even with recent advances in efforts to
correct risk management with the regulation of Law 12,334 / 2010, which establishes the
Política Nacional de Segurança de Barragens (PNSB) and It creates the Sistema Nacional
de Informações sobre Segurança de Barragem 2.

The company CTG Brazil Rio Paranapanema Energia SA, in order to develop a
methodology for the integrated management of risks associated with dams, contracted the
Fundação Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica (FCTH) for the elaboration of a Research and

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

Development project called "Development of an integrated risk management methodology

associated with dam emergencies". This research project is duly registered in the Angência
Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) under number PD-0387-0115 / 2015. The study
area of the project was the cascades of the Paranapanema River, located in the state of São
Paulo, Brazil. Figure 4 shows the location of the study area.

Figure 4: Location of the study area

One of the abovementioned study activities that aimed to support the risk analysis was
the "Determination of potentially flooded areas". In this activity a hydrodynamic
computational model was constructed and calibrated to simulate the conditions of operation
of the dam in the passage of extreme events, such as floods of project, and to evaluate the
impacts caused by the rupture of these structures.

The computational model used was the HEC-RAS, developed by the Hydrological
Engineering Center - HEC of the United States Army Corps of Engineers - USACE. In it
was built a network to represent the cascade of Paranapanema river power plants, with
information on topography, bathymetry and interferences in the river basin, obtained
through a Digital Terrain Model (TDM).

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

Eleven Hydroelectric Power Plants are located in the Paranapanema river cascade, eight
of which are operated by CTG Brazil. The characteristics of the Hydroelectric Power Plants
(HPP) operated by CTG Brasil and the respective downstream valleys are shown in Table
2 below.

Name HPP HPP HPP HPP

Jurumiri Chavantes Big Jump Canoas II
m concrete
concrete concrete with
Dam Earth gravity.
and earth buttresses
and land
Crown rank (m) 570 479 387.17 368
Crest length (m) 420 500 920 557.5
Maximum download (m³ / s) 776 1084 1644 1727
Maximum NA volume maximorum (hm³) 7750.68 9539.89 73.98 106
Area in NA maximum maximorum (km²) 488.2 425.11 17.5 18.21
Channel Declivity downstream (w / w) 0.00055 0.00095 0.00035 0.00055
Width of the downstream channel (m) 491 457 650 887
HPP HPP HPP HPP
Name Canoas I capybara Taquaruçu Rosana
concrete
Dam grav. mixed Earth Earth
and land
Crown rank (m) 353 339 287.5 262
Crest length (m) 507.5 1500 2100 2300
Maximum download (m³ / s) 1777 2156 2012 2504
Maximum NA volume maximorum (hm³) 228.31 13074.3 990.19 2019.18
Area in NA maximum maximorum (km²) 27.48 693.3 84.26 206.42
Channel Declivity downstream (w / w) 0.0004 0.0003 0.00025 0.0002
Width of the downstream channel (m) 41132 6023 9818 15397
Table 2: Characteristics of Paranapanema river cascade mills

Some criterias for delineating the risk zones presented in this article recommend that
both the implementation of alert systems and the definition of the boundaries of the self -
safety Zones should be considered site-specific features and conditions, for example the
response capacity civil protection agents. In addition, the geometric characteristics of the
downstream valleys and the dimensions of the dams should be considered as having a direct
influence on the extent and hydrodynamic magnitudes of the flooded areas.

With the results of potentially floodable areas obtained for the Paranapanema River
cascade, one can compare the wave arrival times and dangerousness of the flooded area
(risk zoning) in the downstream portions with different geometric characteristics. It was
also considered, in this comparison, the differences in the dimensions of the dams .

It was considered for the geometrical characterization of the valleys downstream the
slope and the width of the channel downstream of each dam.

For the comparison of risk zoning in the downstream valleys with different geometric
characteristics, the downstream sections of the Chavantes and Salto Grande HPPs were
selected, and the downstream stretch of the HPPs Capivara and Taquaruçu to verify the
zoning differences in function of the dimensions of the dams.

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

The results presented in Figure 5 were generated by simulating the flow rate of the
Chavantes HPP (Q = 3,000 m 3 / s) for a large period enough for the analyzed sections
(downstream of Chavantes and Salto Grande) to have the same flow rate. It can be verified
that the highest slope with i = 0.0009 1 m / m and average depth h average = 5.5m (HPP
Chavantes) presents values of velocity higher than in the section with slope i = 0.00035 m
/ m and average depth h average = 4.9 m (HPP Salto Grande).

Figure 5: Slope of major slope downstream of the Chavantes HPP (i = 0.00091 m / mh mean = 5.2m) a)
depth map; b) velocity map; c) hazard map; Lower slope extent downstream of the Salto Grande HPP (i =
0.00035 m / mh mean = 4.9): d) depth map; (e) speed map; f) hazard map

The results presented in Figure 6 were generated by simulating the project flows (TR
10,000 years) of the plants analyzed (HPPs Chavantes and Salto Grande). It can be verified
that when a local analysis is done with a closer look, the local characteristics of this small
area, because they are different from the average of a larger stretch, presented results
different from those presented in Figure 5. It should be noted that the upstream boundaries

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

condition (flow rate) also contributes significantly to these differences. Figure 6 shows the
Salto Grande most hazardous of section (c) and lower hazardous in Chavantes portions (f) .

Figure 6: Lower slope stretch downstream of the Big Jump HPP (i = 0.00035 m / m): a) depth map; b)
velocity map; c) hazard map; Slope of major slope downstream of Chavantes HPP (i = 0.00095 m / m): d)
depth map; (e) speed map; f) hazard map

The results presented in Figure 7 were then extracted from the scenario of rupture
simulation of the Jurumirim HPP that led to the rupture of the HPPs Capivara and
Taquaruçu dams. As these dams have significant differences in stored width and volume,
It can compare the risk zoning as a function of the hazard (depth x velocity). It can be
observed that downstream of the Capivara Hydroelectric Power Plant, there are higher

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

hazard values than the downstream section of the Taquaruçu Hydroelectric Power Plant,
since Capivara has a thirteen times greater volume.

Figure 7: Hazard map: a) stretch downstream of the Capivara HPP; b) stretch downstream of HPP
Taquaruçu

CONCLUSIONS
Flood areas classified by risk zones according to the arrival time of the flood wave and
the dangerousness, consider implicitly the geometric characteristics of the downstream
valleys as well as the dimensions of the dams, through the flow velocity.

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 Rodrigo M. Lucci, José R. S. Martins, José C. de M. Bernardino, Edmar C. Júnior, Rodrigo M. Carvalho

With the analysis of the results presented in this paper it can be concluded that the
geometric characteristics of the downstream valleys and the dimensions of the dams,
especially the stored volume, are relevant to support the definition of delimitation criteria
of area to be mapped in fuction to the risk of composing the Emergency Action Plans , as
these characteristics influence the velocity of the flood wave and consequently of the arrival
times and the hazard of the flows.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Authors would like to thank the support of CTG Brasil Rio paranapanema, ANEEL – Brazilian
Agency for Electrical Energy and FCTH – Fundação Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica.

REFERENCES
[1] L. M. M. S. Caldeira, Análises de risco em getotecnia: aplicação a barragens de aterro-
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[2] BRASIL, Lei 12.334 - Política Nacional de Segurança de Barragens- Brasil (2010)

[3] M. T. F. Viseu, Segurança dos Vales a Jusante de Barragens: Metodologia de apoio à

gestão de risco-Lisboa, Portugal (2008).

[4] USBR Department of the Interior, Policy and procedures for dam safety modification
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[5] ANA - Agência Nacional de Águas, Manual do Empreendedor sobre Segurança de

Barragens-Superintendência de Regulação (SRE), Brasília, Brail (2016).

[6] USBR - U.S. Department of The Interior - Bureau of Reclamation, Downstream Hazard
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[7] E. Martínez-Gomariz, M. Gómez e B. Russo, Experimental study of the stability of

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[8] N. Lind, D. Hartford e H. Assaf, Hydrodynamic Models of Human Stability in a Flood –

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