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National Institute of Justice J US T I C E P
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National Institute of Justice


R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n
Jeremy Travis, Director July 1995

Highlights
Threat Assessment: An Approach To
In the past 5 years, violent crimes
involving stalking, workplace vio-
lence, and attacks or threatened
Prevent Targeted Violence
attacks on public figures and offi- by Robert A. Fein, Ph.D., Bryan Vossekuil, and Gwen A. Holden
cials have been prominent in the
news. Law enforcement and se-
curity professionals are turning to On April 25, 1993, 25 abortion protesters hero as far as I’m concerned,” Schumacher
prevention as an important com- gathered at the Brookline home of a doc- remembers the man saying, his voice filled
ponent of control strategy. This tor who performed abortions at the with rage.
Research in Action discusses op- Preterm Health Services clinic on nearby
erational and investigative tools Beacon Street. “I remember it well, especially the part
and approaches that can be ef- when he said Griffin was a hero,” said
fectively used to recognize, evalu- It was a Sunday afternoon, just a few Schumacher, referring to her 1993
ate, and manage the risks of target– weeks after antiabortion activist Michael encounter...“It was not the kind of conver-
ed violence before crimes occur. Griffin had gunned down Dr. David sation you forget. I even alerted a police
Gunn at a Pensacola, Florida abortion officer that day about it. You could tell the
Of special interest:
clinic. The protesters sensed that Gunn’s guy was not stable.”
● Threats of violence arise from murder, the first in the abortion war, had
feelings or ideas that range from somehow changed the movement—a Boston Globe, 1/8/95 (emphasis added)
the mean-spirited to the messi- clear escalation of the violence.
anic. Sometimes a threat is The man described in the Boston Globe ar-
backed by the will and capacity to As Mary Schumacher, then the executive ticle who was reported to the police that
do harm; at other times, a voiced director of Operation Rescue in Massa- day in 1993 was John C. Salvi III. Less
threat may amount to nothing chusetts, led the group in prayer, she de- than a year later, on December 30, 1994,
but emotional “venting.” How- scribed how Griffin could not be “prolife” Salvi allegedly opened fire on the Preterm
ever, violent acts can be commit- if he killed someone. She called Gunn’s and Planned Parenthood clinics in
ted when no prior threat has Brookline, Massachusetts, killing two and
death a “tragedy” and asked the protest-
been uttered. For law enforce- wounding five persons. Salvi has been
ment and security officers, recog-
ers to pray for him.
charged with committing an act of “targeted
nizing the difference between
Just then one of the protesters—a young violence,” a term that refers to situations in
“making” and “posing” a threat
man with a face twisted in anger—inter- which an identifiable (or potentially iden-
is crucially important.
rupted the prayer. “You need a talking tifiable) perpetrator poses (or may pose) a
● Perpetrators of violence often to,” he said to Schumacher. threat of violence to a particular individual
have a traceable history of prob- or group.
lems, conflicts, disputes, and fail- After the prayer, the man confronted
ures. Violent behavior may be Schumacher and spoke about the failure Increasingly, Americans have been con-
triggered by these individuals’ of the Catholic Church to fight hard fronted with such incidents of targeted vio-
perception that it provides a enough against abortion. “How can you lence, both actual or threatened. Behaviors
means to rectify or avenge an say that Gunn’s death was a tragedy? He characterized as “stalking,” workplace
continued on p.2
was killing the innocent. Griffin was a violence, and attacks on public figures and
R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n

Highlights officials are frequently reported in the ● Many persons who make threats do
continued . . . media. Recently, those reports have con- not pose threats.
injustice or wrongdoing. Targeted cerned violent attacks occurring in set-
violence can be premeditated or op- tings (such as health clinics, schools, the ● Some persons who pose threats never
portunistic when a situation arises that workplace, or a Long Island commuter make threats.
facilitates or permits the violence or train) where unsuspecting victims be-
does not prevent it from occurring.
Targeting the victim. Postponing action
lieved themselves to be safe. Often the until a threat has been made can detract
● The first component of threat as-
perpetrators of these attacks are subse- attention from investigation of factors
sessment case management involves quently found to have given advance no- more relevant to the risk of violence, e.g,
developing a plan that moves the tice of their violent inclinations. a potential perpetrator’s selection of pos-
subject away from regarding vio- sible targets. Data from two recent studies
lence as a viable option. Investigative and operational suggest that at least some approachers—
● Information about a subject’s cop- techniques and attackers—of public officials/figures
ing ability during periods of great Traditional law enforcement activities show an interest in more than one tar-
stress, including any contemplated or
aim at apprehending and prosecuting get.1 U.S. Secret Service experience in-
attempted violence against others or dicates that a number of would-be
perpetrators of violence after the com-
self, is of special interest in a threat as- Presidential assassins, such as Arthur
sessment investigation. Other behav-
mission of their crimes. In most circum-
stances, the primary responsibility of law Bremer and John Hinckley, considered
ioral data—such as obsessive or undue
enforcement professionals is to deter- several targets, and changed targets, be-
interest in a potential target, or efforts
mine whether a crime has been commit- fore finally making an attack. Data on
made to secure or practice with weap-
ons—also is helpful. ted, conduct an investigation to identify relationship stalking murders and work-
and apprehend the perpetrator, and place violence murders point to suicide,
● Interviews of subjects should be
gather evidence to assist prosecutors in a as well as homicide, as a possible out-
considered as part of the investi- come.2 These examples suggest that, in
criminal trial. However, when police of-
gation’s overall strategy. However, some cases, the perpetrator may ultimately
sometimes an interview may stimu-
ficers are presented with information and
concern about a possible future violent become his or her own final target.
late the interest, and may even
increase the desperation or anxiety crime, their responsibilities, authority,
level, of a subject and thus could and investigative tools and approaches Legal sanctions
precipitate violence when it may not are less clear. “Threat assessment” is The threat of sanctions, such as a long
have occurred otherwise. the term used to describe the set of in- prison sentence, may not deter a person
vestigative and operational techniques who desperately desires revenge or is
● The target in a threat assessment
case needs to be evaluated in terms
that can be used by law enforcement prepared to die to achieve his objective.
of vulnerability to attack, job and professionals to identify, assess, and Passage of enforceable laws that define
personal lifestyle, fear of the subject, manage the risks of targeted violence and prohibit behaviors that could presage
and degree of sophistication with and its potential perpetrators. violent attacks is one important step in
regard to the need for caution. preventing such attacks. Forty-nine
“Making” versus “posing” a threat.
● Documentation of data and con- Individuals utter threats for many rea- States have passed antistalking laws in
sultation with experts are key as- sons, only some of which involve inten- the past 4 years, and the National Insti-
pects in implementing a case tion or capacity to commit a violent act. tute of Justice, together with the National
management strategy. However, a person can present a grave Criminal Justice Association, published
threat without articulating it. The dis- a model antistalking law.3 Additionally,
● A case can be considered for clos- authorities in some jurisdictions are re-
ing when the subject is deemed to tinction between making and posing a
threat is important: viewing various threat and harassment
no longer be a threat. Questions
should be asked regarding what
laws to determine whether they might
changed circumstances could trigger ● Some persons who make threats ulti- apply to threat-of-violence situations.
the subject to move toward violent mately pose threats. However, laws by themselves are un-
behavior. likely to prevent stalking, workplace, or
public figure–centered violence, unless

2
R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n

law enforcement and security profes- c) A setting that facilitates or per- security organization that will be re-
sionals know how to identify, evaluate, mits the violence, or at least does sponsible for receiving information
and manage persons at risk of commit- not stop it from occurring. about possible subjects and conduct-
ting these violent acts. ing threat assessment investigations;
● A key to investigation and resolution (3) notifying those individuals and or-
of threat assessment cases is identifica- ganizations that might come in contact
Fundamental principles of tion of the subject’s “attack-related” with—or know of—potential subjects
threat assessment behaviors. Perpetrators of targeted acts about the existence of a threat assess-
Notwithstanding the growing impor- of violence engage in discrete behav- ment program; and (4) educating noti-
tance of threat assessment for law en- iors that precede and are linked to fied individuals and organizations
forcement and security professionals, their attacks; they consider, plan, and about the criteria for bringing a con-
systematic thinking and guidance in prepare before engaging in violent cern about potential violence to the at-
this area have been lacking. The law actions. tention of investigators.
enforcement and security communities
● Threatening situations are more
currently do not have clearly articu-
likely to be successfully investigated Assessing the risks
lated processes or procedures to steer
their actions when they are made and managed if other agencies and The second goal of a threat assessment
aware of threat-of-violence subjects systems—both within and outside law program is to evaluate the risks per-
and situations. Without guidelines for enforcement or security organiza- sons under suspicion may pose to par-
making threat assessments, otherwise tions—are recognized and used to ticular targets. Risk assessment
competent law enforcement profes- help solve problems presented by a involves two primary functions: inves-
sionals may be less thoughtful and given case. Examples of such systems tigation and evaluation.
thorough than they might be in han- are those employed by prosecutors;
dling such incidents. To fill the void, courts; probation, corrections, social Investigation. The primary objective
this report presents four fundamental service, and mental health agencies; of a risk assessment investigation is to
principles that underlie threat assess- employee assistance programs; gather information on a subject and on
ment investigation and management. victim’s assistance programs; and potential targets. Multiple sources of
They are followed by a model and pro- community groups. information should be consulted to
cess for conducting comprehensive learn about a subject’s behavior, inter-
threat assessment investigations. Functions of a threat ests, and state of mind at various
assessment program points in time:
● Violence is a process, as well as an
act. Violent behavior does not occur in The three major functions of a threat ● Personal interviews with the subject.
a vacuum. Careful analysis of violent assessment program are: identification
● Material created or possessed by the
incidents shows that violent acts often of a potential perpetrator, assessment
of the risks of violence posed by a subject, including journals and letters,
are the culmination of long-develop- and materials collected by the subject,
ing, identifiable trails of problems, given perpetrator at a given time, and
management of both the subject and such as books and magazines, that
conflicts, disputes, and failures. may relate to the investigation.
the risks that he or she presents to a
● Violence is the product of an inter- given target. ● Persons who know or have known
action among three factors: the subject, including family members,
a) The individual who takes violent
Identifying the perpetrator friends, coworkers, supervisors, neigh-
action. The process of identifying a potential bors, landlords, law enforcement offic-
perpetrator involves: (1) defining crite- ers, social service or mental health
b) Stimulus or triggering conditions ria that could lead to a person becom- staff, and previous victims of unac-
that lead the subject to see vio- ing a subject of a threat assessment ceptable behavior (including violence)
lence as an option, “way out,” investigation; (2) determining the committed by the subject.
or solution to problems or life areas within the law enforcement or
situation.

3
R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n

● Record or archival information, ● The facts leading to initiation of In some cases, however, an interview
including police, court, probation, and investigation. may intensify the subject’s interest in
correctional records; mental health the target or increase the risk of lethal
and social service records; and notes ● The investigator’s legal standing in behavior. For example, a subject who
made by those aware of the subject’s relation to the subject. has written a letter to a celebrity pro-
interest in a particular target, such as ● The resources available to the fessing undying love and formally pro-
security personnel, managers, victims, investigator. posing marriage, but who has engaged
or colleagues. in no other known behavior in relation
● The investigator’s training and to the celebrity, may have his or her in-
Information about the subject. At the experience in interviewing. terest stimulated by an interview. With-
beginning of a threat assessment in- out an interview, the subject’s interest
vestigation, it is important to secure ● The stage of the investigation. may dissipate. Similarly, a desperate
detailed descriptions of the subject’s and suicidal subject, self-perceived as
behaviors and actions that prompted ● The investigator’s strategy for
having been abandoned, who has been
other persons to notice the subject. resolving the case.
stalking a former partner, may sense
The kinds of information useful for A decision to interview a subject that time is running out and be
threat assessment include data about should be made on the basis of case prompted by an interview to engage in
overwhelmingly or unbearably stress- facts. Generally, when there has been
ful experiences and the subject’s abil- face-to-face contact between subject
ity to cope at such times. Behavioral and target or the subject has communi-
data about the subject’s motives, in- cated a threat to the target, an inter-
tentions, and capacities is critical; of
particular importance is information
about attack-related behaviors:
view is a good idea. An interview
under such circumstances may have
several goals. It may signal that the
P ossible Indicators of
Potential Trouble

● The subject has expressed interest subject’s behavior has been noticed,
in possible targets, including particu- permit the subject’s story to be related ● “My former spouse keeps calling me,
to a third party, gather information that cursing, and hanging up.”
lar, identifiable targets.
is the basis for corroboration, and pro-
● “Coworkers report that Jones seems
● The subject has communicated with vide an opportunity for communicating obsessed with getting even with
or about potential targets. that the subject’s behavior is unwel- Rogers.”
come, unacceptable, and must cease.
● The subject has considered and/or ● “Smith is talking about blowing away
attempted to harm self or others. Any interview is a vehicle for gather- the Governor. I think he has a gun.
ing information about the subject that He was just turned down on the
● The subject has secured or prac- appeal of his case for worker’s
can be used to assess the threat that a
ticed with weapons. subject poses and to manage that compensation.”

● The subject has followed or ap- threat. Therefore, threat assessment


● “The Judge got her fifth letter this
proached potential targets, either interviews are most productive if they year from Harris telling her that he
with or without weapons, at events are conducted respectfully and profes- loves her passionately.”
or occasions. sionally. The task of the investigator is
twofold: to gather information about ● “The CEO’s office just got a call from
Interviewing the subject. Whether to the subject’s thinking, behavior pat- Doe saying that the Chairman’s life is
in danger.”
interview the subject of a threat as- terns, and activities regarding the
sessment investigation can be a key target(s) and to encourage change in ● “I know I only met him once, but I
question; the decision depends on the subject’s behavior. By showing an know that he loves me; once his wife
several factors: interest in the subject’s life that is nei- is out of the way, we can be together
ther unduly friendly nor harsh, an in- always.”
● The investigator’s need for vestigator can increase the likelihood
information. of the interview’s success.

4
R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n

more extreme behavior before “they likely, e.g., is the targeted individual Case management
put me away.” In such a circumstance, planning to move, spend more time at
The first component of threat assess-
the investigator may need to expend home, or take a new job?
ment case management involves devel-
additional resources, perhaps increas-
● Is the target afraid of the subject? Is oping a plan that moves the subject
ing security for the target, arranging
the targeted individual’s degree of fear away from regarding violence against
hospitalization or arrest of the subject,
shared by family, friends, and/or col- the target as a viable option. Such a
or monitoring or surveilling the sub-
leagues? plan is likely to draw on resources
ject. Subject interviews, therefore,
from systems within the threat assess-
should be considered and conducted ● How sophisticated or naive is the ment unit’s parent organization, as
within the context of overall investiga- targeted individual about the need for well as those outside it. The second
tive strategy. caution? How able is the individual component is plan implementation.
Information about the target. A man to communicate a clear and consistent The best developed and supported
who, over days and weeks, has been “I want no contact with you” message case management plan will be of little
following a secretary whom he met to the subject? use in preventing violence if the plan
once, but with whom he has no rela- is not implemented and monitored.
tionship, appears to have picked out a Evaluation The plan must remain flexible to ac-
potential target. An employee, fired by commodate changes in the subject’s
A 2-stage process is suggested to
a manager whom he blames for dis- life and circumstances. The final man-
evaluate information gathered about
criminating against him and causing agement component is formal closing
the subject and the potential target(s).
the breakup of his family, has told of the case.
In the first stage, information is evalu-
former coworkers that he will “get ated for evidence of conditions and be- Case plan development. Once an
even”; once again, a potential target haviors that would be consistent with evaluator determines that a given sub-
appears to have been selected. To pre- an attack. The second stage of evalua- ject presents a risk of violence to a tar-
vent violence, the threat assessment tion seeks to determine whether the geted individual, the next task is to
investigator requires information on subject appears to be moving toward develop a plan to manage the subject
the targeted individual. Relevant or away from an attack. After analyz- and the risk. The evaluator then pro-
questions about the target might ing the available data, the threat as- ceeds to identify those internal and ex-
include: sessor is left with these questions: ternal systems that may be helpful in
● Are potential targets identifiable, or managing the problems presented by
● Does it appear more or less likely
does it appear that the subject, if con- the subject. In certain situations, such
that violent action will be directed by
sidering violence, has not yet selected as those in which the subject has been
the subject against the target(s)? What
targets for possible attack? stalking an identifiable target in a ju-
specific information and reasoning
risdiction that has an enforceable and
● Is the potential target well known to
lead to this conclusion?
effective anti-stalking law, the best
the subject? Is the subject acquainted ● How close is the subject to attempt- way to prevent violence and minimize
with a targeted individual’s work and ing an attack? What thresholds, if any, harm to the targeted individual may be
personal lifestyle, patterns of living, have been crossed (e.g., has the sub- to prosecute the case vigorously. A
daily comings and goings? ject violated court orders, made a will, good relationship between threat as-
given away personal items, expressed sessment investigators and prosecutors
● Is the potential target vulnerable to
willingness to die or to be incarcerated)? can influence the priority assigned to
an attack? Does the targeted indi- the case and the extent to which
vidual have the resources to arrange ● What might change in the subject’s prosecutorial and judicial processes
for physical security? What might life to increase or decrease the risk of facilitate its resolution. Such relation-
change in the target’s lifestyle or living violence? What might change in the ships also may affect the court’s dispo-
arrangements that could make attack target’s situation to increase or de- sition of the case, including sentencing
by the subject more difficult or less crease the risk of violence? of a convicted offender.

5
R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n

Even conviction and imprisonment, First, documentation of data and rea- the event of a bad outcome, use and
however, do not guarantee that the tar- soning at every stage of a threat as- documentation of consultant expertise
get will be safe from the subject. If the sessment investigation is essential. may demonstrate that the threat as-
subject has been unable or unwilling Undocumented or poorly documented sessment team sought additional per-
to let go of the idea of a relationship information-gathering and analysis are spectives and ideas and did not get
with the target, or if the subject at- suspect in and of themselves, and they stuck with “tunnel vision.”
tributes the pains and misfortunes of provide little foundation for review or
his or her life to the targeted indi- for efforts to learn from—and improve Closing the case. The final task of
vidual, it may make sense to consider on—experience. Without clear docu- threat assessment case management is
strategies by which the subject is en- mentation, investigators are left with closing the case. When a threat asses-
couraged to change the direction, or only their recollections, which can be sor determines that the subject has
intensity, of his interest. A subject en- both partial and faulty and are subject moved far enough away from possible
gaged in activities that bring success to criticism as retrospective recon- violent action toward the target to no
and satisfaction is less likely to remain struction. A carefully and comprehen- longer cause appreciable concern, the
preoccupied with a failed relationship. sively documented record may be case can be considered for closing. At
Family, friends, neighbors, or associ- criticized for imperfect data-gathering this time, it may be important to ask:
ates may play a role in suggesting and or flawed analysis, but such a record ● What has changed in the subject’s
supporting changes in the subject’s also demonstrates both thoughtfulness life that appears to lessen the likeli-
thinking and behavior. In addition, and good faith—critical questions in hood that the subject is interested in
mental health and social service staff any postincident review. or will attempt violent action toward
may be of great assistance in aiding the target?
the subject to formulate more appro- Second, consultation at every major
priate goals and develop skills and stage of the threat assessment process ● Which components of the case man-
strengths that are likely to result in life can be a significant case management agement plan seemed to affect the
successes. tool. Consultants may be members of subject’s thinking or capacity to initiate
the threat assessment unit or external violent action, and to what extent?
At least one aspect of a case manage- experts. To be effective, a consultant
ment plan concerns the target. If the should be knowledgeable in areas rel- ● What life circumstances might occur
subject is to be prohibited from con- evant to the case and be known and that would again put the subject at
tact with the target, the target needs to trusted by the investigators. For ex- increased risk of contemplating, plan-
understand what to do (i.e., whom to ample, in a case where a subject has a ning, or attempting violent action to-
call and how to contact the official history of diagnosed mental disorders ward the original target or other
handling the case) if the subject ini- and the primary investigator is unfa- potential targets?
tiates direct or indirect contact. miliar with mental health language
and concepts used in the records, an ● Are there supports in place (or that
Case management implementation. expert in psychology or psychiatry can can be developed) that will be known
The most carefully crafted plan will provide invaluable insight and advice. and available to the subject at a future
have little effect if it remains in the time when the subject is again at risk
investigator’s files and is not trans- In addition to providing special exper- of moving toward violent behavior?
lated into action. tise, consultants may notice and ask
about questions in a case that remain While social commentators and ana-
Although no procedures or techniques to be explored or answered. Even pro- lysts may debate the myriad reasons
can guarantee that a subject of com- ficient investigators are occasionally that lead to growing national concern
prehensive threat assessment will not vulnerable to “missing the forest for about targeted violence, law enforce-
attempt violent action toward a target, the trees.” A consultant, such as a fel- ment and security organizations are
two activities are known to help reduce low threat assessment specialist who increasingly being called on to examine
the risk of violence, and, in the in- has not been involved with the case, individual situations and make
stance of a bad outcome, assist the may offer a comment that can redirect judgments and determinations about
threat assessment team in any post- or sharpen an ongoing investigation. In the risks of violence that one person
incident review.

6
R e s e a r c h i n A c t i o n

might present to an identifiable target. Martell, C.D.H. Parry, T.M. Stewart, J.


About the authors
In cases related to stalking behaviors, Warren and J.D. Crowder, “Threaten-
workplace violence, attacks on public ing and Otherwise Inappropriate Let- Robert A. Fein, Ph.D., a Visiting
officials and figures, and other situa- ters to Hollywood Celebrities,” Fellow at the National Institute of
tions where targeted violence is a pos- Journal of Forensic Sciences, 36 (Janu- Justice, is a Consultant Psycholo-
sibility, comprehensive and carefully ary 1, 1991):185–209; and Fein, R.A. gist for the U.S. Secret Service;
conducted threat assessment investi- and B. Vossekuil, “The Secret Service Bryan Vossekuil is Assistant Spe-
gations can safeguard potential targets, Exceptional Case Study Project: An cial Agent in Charge, Intelligence
deter potential attackers, and serve the Examination of Violence Against Pub- Division, U.S. Secret Service; and
public. lic Officials and Public Figures,” Na- Gwen A. Holden serves as Execu-
tional Institute of Justice, study in tive Vice President of the National
Notes progress, 92–CX–0013. Criminal Justice Association.
1. Dietz, P.E. and D.A. Martell, “Men- 2. For example, both Thomas McIlvane,
tally Disordered Offenders in Pursuit in the Royal Oak, Michigan post office
of Celebrities and Politicians,” Na- Points of view in this document are those of the
attack, and Alan Winterbourne, in the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official
tional Institute of Justice, Washington, Oxnard, California unemployment of- position of the U.S. Department of Justice.
D.C., 1989, 83–NI–AX–0005; Dietz, fice attack, killed themselves.
P.E., D.B. Matthews, D.A. Martell,
The National Institute of Justice is a
T.M. Stewart, D.R. Hrouda and J. 3. National Criminal Justice Associa- component of the Office of Justice
Warren, “Threatening and Otherwise tion, Project to Develop a Model Anti- Programs, which also includes the Bureau
Inappropriate Letters to Members of Stalking Code for States, National of Justice Assistance, Bureau of Justice
the United States Congress,” Journal Institute of Justice, Washington, D.C., Statistics, Office of Juvenile Justice and
1993. Delinquency Prevention, and the Office for
of Forensic Sciences, 36 (September 5, Victims of Crime.
1991):1445–1468; Dietz, P.E., D.B.
Matthews, C. Van Duyne, D.A.
NCJ 155000

7
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