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 WORKING GROUP

Center of Excellence
IINTEGRATED LANDUSE PLANNING AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (ILPWRM)

Project Investigators

Prof. Arup Kumar Sarma, Principal Investigator

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Prof. Chandan Mahanta, Co-Investigator

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Dr. Rajib Bhattacharya, Co-Investigator

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Dr. S. Dutta, Co-Investigator

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Dr. S. Kartha, Co-Investigator

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Dr. Bimlesh Kumar, Invited Member

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Dr. Sreeja P., Invited Member

Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Project Staff

Shri Arun ChandraThakur, Town Planner

Ms. Banasri Sarma, Senior Research Fellow
Published by Ms. Juri Borbora Saikia, Senior Research Fellow
Ms. Plabita Barman, Senior Research Fellow
Centre of Excellence Mr. Debajit Bora, Junior Research Fellow
IINTEGRATED LANDUSE PLANNING AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (ILPWRM) Mr. Ankuran Pathak, Junior Research Fellow
A centre sponsored by Ministry of Urban Developement, Govt. of India
Mr. Avijit Deka, Junior Research Fellow
Civil Engineering Department, IIT Guwahati Mr. Subhasish Das, Junior Research Fellow
Guwahati : Assam : India Mr. Pinku Jyoti Baishya, Junior Research Fellow
Ms. Rubi Kakoti, Office Assistant
All rights reserved by the Publisher Mr. Mridul Deka, Field Assistant
Mr. Dimpal Das, Field Assistant
Year of publication 2012 Mr. Anjal Bezbarua, Field Assistant
Mr. Gautam Boro, Field Assistant
Mr. Biswajit Das, Field Assistant
 Foreword

Urbanization is increasing at an alarming rate all over the world. In the developing country,
urbanization, generally starts and expands in an unplanned manner leading to an ecological
imbalance, which many a time converts urban areas into a multi-hazard zone. Such unplanned
urbanization may also affect its periphery adversely. A far sighted developmental planning only can
lead to a hazard free ecologically sustainable urbanization. If we continue with haphazard
development without taking much care about their impacts on the ecosystems, we will end up
having extremely hazardous urban areas that may reach an irreversible status, by crossing its
carrying capacity. If population increases beyond carrying capacity, the resources available become
insufficient to support such growth and environment starts reacting in the form of hazards to bring
down the population to a bearable level. Therefore we need to make developmental plan giving
due importance to and having clear concept of urban carrying capacity.

This document aims at giving a concept of urban carrying capacity and its estimation principles.
Emphasizing the ultimate objective of developing a sustainable hazard free urban area, a new
method of computing carrying capacity by analyzing adverse impact of population growth on the
urban environment is also presented in this document.

A.K.Sarma
Principal Investigator CoE (ILPWRM)
Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
CONTENTS

Title Page No.

Foreword

1. Introduction 3-5

1.1. Concept of carrying capacity 3

1.2. Sustainability and carrying capacity 4

1.3. Significance of carrying capacity 5

2. Urban carrying capacity 6-13

2.1. Urban area and carrying capacity 6

2.2. Concept of bioregion 7

2.3. Levels of carrying capacity evaluation in an urban area 7

2.4. Calculation of urban carrying capacity 9

3. SAFE carrying capacity model proposed by IIT Guwahati (CoE ILPWRM) 14-22

3.1. Introduction 14

3.2. Framework for calculation of carrying capacity 15

3.3. Application of the Concept to practical field: A case study of a pilot 17

watershed in Guwahati City of Assam, India

References 23
 2011-2012

Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION

1.1. Concept of carrying capacity

The carrying capacity concept was pioneered by Thomas Malthus in the year 1798. He predicted
that the earth can only hold a definite amount of human growth for a definite time. This concept
holds a crucial position in determining the quality and state of an ecosystem with respect to the
pressures meted by the demands of the dwelling population. It is basically an ecological concept
that also embraces the socio-economic parameters.

If we go on defining carrying capacity then it will be a herculean task because the concept itself is
very vast and has different perspectives, like social, cultural, political, ecological etc. In simple
terms, the carrying capacity of an area can be defined as the maximum number of people that can
be supported by the environment of that area through optimum utilization of the available
resources.

In other words carrying capacity of an area refers to an extreme limit. This limit defines the
population carrying capacity of the area. If this limit is crossed then the nature will react by
imposing pressure to resist the abrupt growth and development of the people resulting into
equilibrium. These pressures can be in the form of floods, droughts, landslides, famine etc.

Over shooting population

Enhanced carrying capacity

Population (N)

Carrying capacity

Stable population Degraded carrying capacity

Time (T)
Carrying capacity graph
© CoE ILPWRM IITG
3

Fig 1: Graph showing the relation between population rise & carrying capacity
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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

Carrying capacity is not fixed. It can increase or decrease phenomenally. There are many factors
that can influence the carrying capacity of a region. The pattern and extent of resource usage
serves to be the primary factor that affects the carrying capacity a lot. This indeed depends highly
on the socio-economic status of the people. Secondly, the use of technology also influences the
carrying capacity, i.e. if technology is used in a positive manner than definitely the carrying capacity
will get increased manifold or may be degraded vice versa. Fig-1 shows the plot of population
growth with time and various ways that the population can reach the carrying capacity.

1.2. Sustainability & carrying capacity

Ensuring sustainability of the resources is one of the biggest tasks of humankind for humankind.
The sustainability of an environment can be understood as its endurance capability, i.e. making the
resources available for usage forever. So, it can be well said that sustainability can be measured by
the carrying capacity. It is so because if the maximum limit of resource is known then only an
efficient usage policy could be formed that will ensure future availability of the same.

ECOLOGY
BEA

SUSTAINABLE
LE

RAB
B
VIA

LE

SOCIETY
ECONOMY

EQUITABLE
© CoE ILPWRM IITG

Fig 2: Diagram showing the interaction between the three pillars of sustainability

Sustainability has three foundation bases; they are social, economic and environmental. So, it is
always advisable that the development people want should be sustainable or simply sustainable
development through adequate emphasis to all these three pillars and their interactions so that an
inherent balance can be maintained. Thus sustainable development indirectly govern the carrying
capacity.
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URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

1.3. Significance of carrying capacity

The world is developing by leaps and bounds. Development is taking place at a faster pace. As such
the impact of this ever-increasing population-base combined with dangerously depleted natural
resources highlights the urgent need for changes in human lifestyles and land-use patterns (Lane,
2009). However, it becomes imperative to know the limits up to which development is feasible. The
Ecological Footprint Atlas (2008) says, “We cannot make meaningful decisions about where we
need to go before we know where we stand”. Thus there is an urgent need to locally estimate the
carrying capacity. The carrying capacity concept can be utilized in planning and development of
urban areas to keep a balance between built environment and natural environment which is
currently a challenging task. Under prevailing socio-economic conditions, the application of
carrying capacity concept enables to determine the optimum population that can be supported
within a given area with adequate infrastructure facilities so that development is environmentally
hazard free and sustainable.

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2011-2012

Chapter 2
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY

2.1. Urban area & carrying capacity

An area is referred to be “urban” when it possesses features like high population density coupled
with great infrastructure facilities. The probable definition of an urban area varies significantly
between nations. In India, The Census of India, (1971) defines urban areas as :

i. All places with a Municipality Corporation or Cantonment or Notified Town Area

ii. All other places which satisfied the following criteria :
a. A minimum population of 5,000.
b. At least 75% of the male working population should be non-agricultural.
c. Density of population is at least 400 per sq. Km. (i.e. 1000 per sq. Mile)

With an upsurge in economic growth, many rural areas, farmlands, country sides etc are getting
converted into urban sprawls. Development is transforming natural sites into built up area. The
process of urbanization seems inevitable as cities and towns are growing exponentially with
increasing demand for urban area. The urban areas are the entities which have great potential of
exceeding the local carrying capacity because they require enormous concentrations of food,
water, and materials in a small area. The concentration requirements may go far beyond the level
provided by the local carrying capacity. Also this high degree of consumption is associated with
huge quantity of waste production and sewage which cannot be properly assimilated within the
local carrying capacity (Aspeslagh, 1994).

So, it is quite evident that urban ecosystems are the ones that are highly prone to these so called,
“irreversible damages”. To ensure more equitable and sustainable land-use patterns, human
ecologist Garrett Hardin (1986) recommends directly linking and limiting populations to the
regions which sustain them.

The urban carrying capacity can be defined as the level of human activities, population growth,
patterns & extent of land use, physical development, which can be sustained by the urban
environment without causing serious degradation and irreversible damage (Oh et.al., 2002).
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URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

2.2. Concept of Bioregion

A “Bioregion” is a cumulative term. It's a huge region that embraces an urban hub along with its
surrounding areas. According to Aspeslagh (1994), a bioregion is a distinct area with coherent and
interconnected human, plant and animal communities, and is defined by a watershed or a set of
interlinking watersheds.

WATER BODIES AGRICULTURE

LANDS

URBAN
HUB

FOREST LAND SUB URBAN AREAS

BIOREGION
© CoE ILPWRM

Fig 3: Diagram of a bioregion

This bioregion is continuously replenishing the ecological demands of the urban hub, thus adding
on to the overall urban carrying capacity. But with the prevailing scenario of urban development,
these bioregions are getting sparse and sparse day by day. So, there is an urgent need to evaluate
the urban carrying capacity by which a sustainable regime could be planned.

2.3. Levels of carrying capacity evaluation in an urban area

The evaluation of urban carrying capacity is a pretty complex process. This complexity is due to the
fact that the capacity to support humans is determined not just by the basic food requirements, but
also by the various kinds of resources consumed, the many kinds of wastes generated, different
kinds of landuse conversions leading to ecological imbalance and the great variability in
technology, institutions and lifestyles created. Aspeslagh (1994) defines six levels for evaluating
carrying capacity of the urban areas. They are as follows:
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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

i. Infrastructural capacity level

ii. Institutional capacity level
iii. Perceptual capacity level
iv. Environmental capacity level
v. Sustainable capacity level
vi. Biocentric capacity level

Infrastructure capacity level: At this capacity level, the major factor of evaluation is the
infrastructure development. Here the intensity and pattern of resource usage is estimated for the
development of infrastructure like, water supply system, sewage system, transportation system,
waste disposal system, etc.

Institutional capacity level: The various legal and political frameworks that have been made to
limit urban activities are considered here. The level of enforcement of various acts like
Environment protection acts, Biodiversity conservations act, as well as zoning regulations, building
permits, landuse ordinances, etc are assessed to evaluate the carrying capacity.

Perceptual carrying capacity: These constraints are generally perception based, i.e. they reflect
the idea of a common man towards its environment. The way of assessment is social surveys
whereby the basic thinking of people & their duties towards environment can be evaluated.

Environmental capacity level: This level basically reflects the present state of the environment
with respect to productivity. One can easily understand the state of productivity of the
environment, e.g. agricultural productivity by evaluating the past data. Another way of assessment
is the availability of clean air & water, low pollution, etc.

Sustainable capacity level: The factors which are assessed at this level are long term based. The
basic resource flow through the urban area to its ultimate sink is evaluated at this capacity level.
Hence, an idea can be achieved corresponding to a particular resource as how long it will be
available for usage. If a resource is getting scarce then efficient steps could be taken to sustain it for
long.

Biocentric capacity level: This capacity level deal with ethics related to life on earth. At this level the
different threats are assessed which harm the integrity, stability and beauty of the biotic
community of an urban area. Unlike, the previous capacity levels that totally deal with human & its
need, this capacity level embraces all forms of life as well as their requirements from the
environment.
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URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

2.4. Calculation of urban carrying capacity

Though it is evident that carrying capacity estimation serves to be one of the most crucial answers
to the question of sustainable development and thus to the very survival of humankind, yet an
irony remains. Carrying capacity is very difficult to estimate or calculate. Arrow et.al. (1995)
comment that carrying capacity is not static but is based on the complex relation of preferences,
application of technology and patterns of production & consumption. They are also contingent on
the state of interactions of the biotic and abiotic environment. So the different workers have come
up with various models which give an idea about calculation of carrying capacity:

i. Graphical model
ii. Uni-constraint model
iii. IPAT equation
iv. Ecological Footprint model
v. Energy analysis model
vi. Pressure-State-Response model

Graphical model :
This model is a graphical representation
where the population growth is plotted
Exponential growth (dN/dT=rN)
against time. The population growth can be
of two types, i.e. exponential and logistic. If
there is no environmental resistance then
the population growth trend is always Carrying capacity (K)
Population (N)

exponential, which eventually leads to

population explosion and ecological
Logistic growth
malfunctioning. The environmental dN/dt=rN{(K-N)/N}
resistance comes into play when the
population exceeds the carrying capacity.
Hence, due to the property of resilience the
environment tends to stabilize. Thereby Time (T)

equilibrium is achieved in the population GRAPHICAL MODEL

© CoE ILPWRM
growth form, i.e. logistic growth form.
Based on demographic data the urban Fig 4: Graph showing the population growth forms
carrying capacity can be calculated using
this model.
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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

Uni constraint model :

A “constraint” is an information key that tells us about the likelihood of limits. In this particular
model a single constraint is considered and the entire estimation is based on the assumptions
circling the considered constraint. The population constraints can be food, shelter, clothing etc. But
one at a time can be considered in this model. As for example, if one considers the constraint of
food, then the estimation of carrying capacity would involve the amount of available farmland, the
average yield of crops, the prevalent diet, and the amount of calories to be provided to each person
each day.

IPAT equation:

It is a multi constraint model that uses different factors in calculating the carrying capacity. This
mathematical equation is one of the most pioneering attempts to estimate the level of
environmental degradation by the dwelling population in an urban area that incorporates the
usage of multiple factors or constraints.
I=P x A x T
Here, “I” refers to the Impact on the environment, “P” refers to the size of the human population,
“A” refers to the affluence or the level of consumption by that population and “T” refers to the
processes used to obtain resources and transform them into useful goods and wastes.

The IPAT equation, thus gives an idea about the cumulative or associated impacts of the population,
its resource usage patterns and technological interventions on the environment. It does not give
any information on the sustainable limits, i.e. optimum carrying capacity but it surely gives a useful
framework in thinking about ways of reducing environmental impacts by reducing various types of
throughput. Hence one gets an indirect approach of estimation of carrying capacity by
understanding the level of environmental degradation.

Ecological Footprint model :

This is one of the most accepted models to calculate carrying capacity of an urban area. The model
was developed by Mathis Wackernagel at the University of British Columbia, Canada as PhD
dissertation (1990-94) under Prof. W.E.Rees. Initially they called the concept “appropriated
carrying capacity”, which was later on termed as “ecological footprint” to make the concept more
understandable and accessible. The ecological footprint is a measure of the human demands on
the biosphere. This model gives an idea about the amount of biologically productive land and water
area required to produce all the resources needed by the population for its consumption and
10

developmental activities as well as to absorb the wastes generated.

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 2011-2012
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

The Ecological Footprint model is based on the data generated from resource accounting. The
different nations in the world are following a resource accounting plan whereby they have

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT MODEL

© CoE ILPWRM

Fig 5: Illustration of the ecological footprint concept

categorized their total ecologically productive land into six areas. As such, six types of ecologically
productive areas are distinguished in calculating the ecological footprint:

§ Arable land
§ Pasture
§ Forest
§ Ocean
§ Built-up land &
§ Fossil energy land
An ecologically productive area can be define as an area that produces the resources required by its
11

dwelling population as well as absorbs the wastes generated by the same. Since, ecological
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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

footprint and carrying capacity are both measured in the same units, they can be compared
directly. If the ecological footprint of a region is larger than the carrying capacity, the region runs an
“ecological deficit”. On the contrary, if the carrying capacity of a region is larger than the ecological
footprint, the region runs an “ecological remainder”. At the end of the resource accounting survey
for ecological footprint determination, the values are converted into a normalized measure of land
area called “global hectares” (gha). According to the ecological footprint analysis done in the year
1997, the world average of ecologically productive land per person is 2 ha without considering the
area required for reserved conservation lands. If we consider that then the figure comes to about
1.7 ha/person.

Copyright @ Pearson Education, Inc., Publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Fig 6: Graph showing the ecological footprints of different nations along with the
available ecological capacity (from Campbell, 6th Ed.)

For 2005, humanity's total ecological footprint was estimated at 1.3 planet Earths, i.e. humanity
uses ecological services 1.3 times as fast as earth can renew them. (Http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Ecological foot print).

The above graphical representation reveals the condition of 13 countries and the whole world with
reference to their ecological footprints in 1997. USA was having a larger ecological footprint with
12

respect to its available ecological capacity, i.e. it was facing an ecological deficit in the year 1997.
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 2011-2012
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

However, New Zealand was having an ecological remainder in the same year. Our country India was
just at the threshold level in the same year.

Energy analysis model :

This model was developed by Odum. It is a quantitative measure of the resources required to
develop a product, whether it is a mineral resource, a biological resource or a commercial product;
and it expresses the resources in units of one type of energy, usually solar energy. It provides a
bridge between ecological and economic systems. As a helpful tool for evaluating rational use of
natural resources, it provides a system for quantifying facts for evaluating environmental resources
(Zhao et.al. 2005)

Pressure-State-Response model :
The PSR model is a framework developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) that provides a mechanism to monitor the environment. It is basically a
socio-economic concept that tends to investigate and analyze the processes involved in
environmental degradation. This framework is based on the fact that human exert “pressure” on
the environment by their activities which results in the radical change of the “state” of the
environment. This changed environment state puts impacts on the human population in the form
of some disasters that lead to the origin of “responses” which intend to prevent, reduce or mitigate
the environmental and socio-economic damage. The PSR framework is based on some indicators
that form an integral part of the whole analysis.

CONSERVATION
© CoE ILPWRM PROTECTION, etc
IITG
PRESSURE
(on environment) RESPONSE
(by people)

LANDSLIDES,
DEFORESTATION, PSR MODEL FLOOD, etc.
POLLUTION, etc.

IMPACT
(on people)

DEGRADATION OF
STATE (of environment) THE ENVIRONMENT
13

Fig 7: Diagrammatic representation of the Pressure-State-Response model

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2011-2012

Chapter 3
“SAFE” CARRYING CAPACITY MODEL PROPOSED BY COE (ILPWRM) AT
IIT GUWAHATI

3.1. Introduction
After reviewing all existing concepts and methods of evaluating carrying capacity, Center of
Excellence (CoE) for Integrated Landuse Planning and Water Resources Management (ILPWRM) at
IIT Guwahati has come up with a new method especially suitable for eco-sensitive urban areas. The
method was first developed for calculating carrying capacity of hilly urban area that will ensure
hazard free sustainable urban development. However the concept can be applied to any urban
area. Here, the basic concept of ecological footprint is first used to decide a trial sustainable
carrying capacity of a watershed or cluster of watersheds covering the urban area or expected
urban area under consideration. Watershed boundary covering extent of potential urban
expansion or the urban planning area is considered here as system boundary and interaction with
bioregion can indirectly be included through concept of regional planning. Following this, a trial
carrying capacity is first determined by allocating population and infrastructures iteratively, so that
the infrastructures provided remain sufficient to cover the virtual footprint of the allocated
population. Feedback of the urban watershed is then analyzed through model study after virtual
accommodation of this trial carrying capacity in the model. Feedback can be assessed in terms of
several case-specific performance criteria to ensure that the area remain hazard free. In case of
inadequacy, technological intervention is first tried to make it adequate. After ensuring that state
of the art technological intervention is also insufficient to meet the set performance criteria, the
trial carrying capacity is adjusted iteratively to arrive at an acceptable carrying capacity by reducing
floor area ratio (FAR), which also indirectly determines the actual and logical FAR for the urban
area. For example performance criteria can be accepted limiting values for sediment yield and
water yield from the urban watershed so that flooding at downstream can be eliminated. Putting
these limits as constraints one can arrive at the acceptable carrying capacity iteratively by analyzing
feedback of the urban watershed in terms of these performance criteria. As the method finally
accommodates a sustainable population iteratively through trial allocation and feedback analysis,
the method is named as “Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation (SAFE)”
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3.2. Framework for calculation of carrying capacity using method of

“Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation (SAFE)”

To elaborate the steps involved in calculation of carrying capacity by the proposed “SAFE” method,
step by step procedure is presented below with example of development of a hilly urban
watershed.

Step 1: Delineation of the urban watershed: In this step the hilly watersheds covering the potential
urban area are delineated from DEM or marked from the city master plan following natural
drainage network.

Step 2: Demarcation of the developable & non-developable area: The hills consist of both
developable areas & areas having less scope for development, i.e. non developable areas. In this
step, the non-developable areas of the delineated hilly region are demarcated using latest
geospatial tools. The non-developable areas mainly consist of land with high slope, reserved forest
areas, water bodies, stream lines, drainage channels, springs, depressions, etc. Thus the usable
areas with respect to various developmental activities can be marked out.

So, AU= AD+AND ...……… (i)

Therefore, AD= AU - AND ............. (ii)

Here, AU is the total hilly urban area, AD is the net developable area and AND is the
net non developable area.

Step 3: Determination of area required for different infrastructure and facilities: Now within the
developable regions of the hilly urban areas, several sub-regions are allotted for various urban
infrastructure and facilities development like, water treatment plants, sewage treatment plants,
drainage, commercial hubs, heath centers, educational institutions, recreational areas, transport
facilities etc. For calculating these areas the regional planning approach is adopted as a tool. For
example, an urban centre with a population of 1000 will not need a solid waste dumping site; rather
a provision of solid waste dumping can be kept by tying with the regional dumping site. Space
required for different infrastructure can be determined through site specific requirement. The
standard space requirement index of the UDPFI guidelines of the Ministry of Urban Development,
Government of India can also be used as a guideline for calculating the required space for various
infrastructure developments.

So, AD= AIF + AR ................ (iii)

Here, AIF is the area for infrastructure development and AR is the area for residential
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requirements.
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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

Step 4: Calculation of the available residential area: The net residential area available for
settlement development can be calculated using the following equation:

From (i) & (iii) AU = AND + AIF + AR

Therefore, AR = AU - (AND+ AIF)

Step 5: Socio economic survey of the urban region & calculation of the floor area requirement of
the people: A thorough demographic and socio economic survey of the hilly urban area should be
done to estimate an average floor area requirement per head of the people dwelling there. In this
regard the national floor area standard values (MoUD, GOI) can be consulted to get an
understanding of the same. The floor area requirement of the people will greatly vary with respect
to economy and lifestyle of the people living there.

Step 6: Determination of the Floor Area Ratio: Floor Area Ration is defined as:

FAR= AF/AP

Where, FAR is the Floor Area Ratio, AF is the total floor area and AP is the area of the plot.

FAR need to be determined by considering various aspects like, provision of intended free space,
safe bearing capacity of soil, economy of people for affording earthquake resilient structures,
drainage and transportation requirement and so on. While the proposed “SAFE” method itself will
determine an acceptable FAR, one need to provide an initial value of FAR. This value can be given
from guidelines provided by different organization including ULB. In absence of any such
guidelines, a value of 1.5 can be used for initial trial value. This value is suggested based on the
general trend observed so far in Indian condition.

Step 7: Calculation of carrying capacity: Based on the overall study, the carrying capacity of the
area with respect to urban development can be calculated using the following equation:

CC= AU - (AND+ AIF) x FAR/S

Here, S is the Floor area requirement per head.

Based on the trend of population growth, the demands of the people with regards to infrastructure
and other facilities will also increase. Hence, it is advisable that the carrying capacity should be
periodically calculated using the above relation so as to check haphazard, unplanned or illegal
development which will harm the ecosystem in the long run by calling hazards or natural
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calamities.
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 2011-2012
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

Step 8: Check for adequacy of drainage system, sewerage system, water quality etc which were not
explicitly considered during carrying capacity calculation. If inadequate, following two options
need to be tried in sequence:

i. Apply possible Ecological Management Practice to bring sediment yield, peak

discharge, sewerage volume and water quality within permissible limit

ii. Reevaluate the carrying capacity by reducing FAR

3.3 Application of the concept to practical field : A case study of a pilot

watershed in Guwahati City of Assam, India
The study watershed is located near the Games village area of Guwahati City of Assam, India. The
watershed has an area of 0.17sq.km. The process of delineation of the watershed is done initially by
using ASTER DEM data in ArcSWAT and followed by refining of the selection using the drainage line
of SoI toposheets.
The TIN model for the area is developed by using 20 m contour interval obtained from SoI
toposheets (1:50000 scale). From the TIN, the slope and aspect map of the area was developed.
The area is located within an elevation range of 11m to 200m. The slope ranges from 0 to 40%. The
major soil type of this watershed is fine and coarse loamy type as obtained from soil map of Assam
Remote Sensing Application Centre (ARSAC).
Figure 8, 9 and 10 shows the GIS based maps of the study area.

17

Fig.8. The maps of the study site

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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

Fig. 9. The slope map of the study site

Fig. 10. The demarcated watershed showing the developable & non developable areas

3.3.1 Computation of carrying capacity

A computer program developed for the purpose was used in order to produce an appropriate value
of carrying capacity. This value can be called as the calculated carrying capacity. A socio economic
survey is carried out in the area to understand the population status, land requirement, economic
status, etc of the people residing there. The survey of the area has highlighted the absence of basic
18

infrastructural amenities. Hence the following infrastructures are being considered for the area:
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URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

l Water treatment plant

l Sewage treatment plant
l Park/ open area
l Health facility
l Socio cultural facility
l Postal services
l Milk booth
l Transportation
l Business/ commerce area

Based on primary and secondary data collected on required area for different infrastructure and
also considering some minimum value for some of the infrastructures, logical statistical
relationship between infrastructure and population were developed.
The following constraints are taken for demarcating the non developable area in the study area:
Stream buffer: 20 m
Slope: > 30% with 5 m buffer

The FAR of the area has been taken to be 1.5 following Master Plan for Guwahati Metropolitan Area
(GMDA, 2009). For example, if one decides to construct house by covering 50% of his land area,
then he can go maximum up to 3 storey building. However acceptability or possible scope of
enhancement of FAR=1.5 may be reviewed for hilly area from consideration of maximum
permissible surcharge load from slope stability point of view.

The socio economic survey has shown that the people residing in the area are lower middle class.
Requirement of area for different infrastructural facilities for the study area was determine by using
standard norm. For the facilities, for which standard norms were not available, effort was made to
develop logical relationship between population and desired infrastructural area based on data
collected for such existing infrastructures in other areas. While using such relation care has been
taken that for essential facilities a minimum area is assigned even if the population is quite low.

Based on analysis of socio-economic status of the present population and considering future
possible matrix of different classes, an average logical floor area requirement is being considered at
0.002 ha per head. The overall analysis gives the calculated carrying capacity to be 782 persons. The
results obtained regarding area of different infrastructure for this computed carrying capacity is
given in the Table 1.
One of the most distinct points which are being dramatically rendered unseen by the policy makers
and developers is the ecological disturbance induced by the growing population leading to multiple
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2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

The development of infrastructure and other facilities in hilly area generally cause land leveling and
cutting of vegetation rendering open or barren land. As urban flood is a major problem for the
study area, and enhanced sediment yield and water yield adversely affect the flooding scenario,
these two factors have been taken as the performance criteria to assess feedback of the watershed
after accommodation of the calculated carrying capacity. In the present study the total built up
area requirement is projected to be 5.7ha resulting into an additional barren land output of 1.8ha.
The sediment and water yield scenario of the watershed is estimated by using the RUSLE method
and Rational method which is presented in the given in Table 2: Table-2 shows that both the values
cross the permissible limits. As per the procedure of SAFE model, technical intervention was first
attempted by applying ecological management practices or simply EMPs, which nullify the
dwindling ecological status.

Table1: Calculation of land requirement for infrastructural facilities

Area of the watershed 17ha

Non developable area 8.4 ha
FAR 1.5
S 0.002 ha
Infrastructure Total area obtained (ha) Coverage (%)
Water treatment plant 1.076 60
Sewage treatment plant 1.076 60
Health 0.010 60
Parks 0.478 20
Socio cultural facility 0.010 20
Postal service 0.004 60
Milk booth 0.004 60
Transportation with road side drain 1.700 100
Business & commerce 2.550 80
Open space 1.700 0
Total infrastructural area 7.558
Total residential area 1.042
Total cover area 5.7
CALCULATED CARRYING 782
CAPACITY(Person)
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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence ILPWRM

 2011-2012
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

Table 2: Calculation of sediment and water yield

Sediment Natural Disturbed

yield of (without build (considering the
watershed up area) calculated carrying
(Using the (Tonnes/yr) capacity)
RUSLE (Tonnes/yr)
method)
2117 6774
Water yield of Natural Disturbed
the watershed (without build (considering the
(Using the up area) Peak calculated carrying
Rational flow (cumec) capacity)(cumec)
Method)
0.48 2.04

The projections derived after analyzing the models considering the estimated carrying capacity
direct towards a higher runoff and sediment yield when compared to natural or undisturbed areas.
Taking into consideration the ever increasing development regime of the nation it becomes really
difficult to control the runoff and sediment without management practice. Moreover it is not
desired to lower the population. So an optimization model was developed to decide most
economical and feasible combination of EMPs to reduce sediment and water yield in an
ecologically sustainable way. In this regard an analysis is done using the OPTEMP-LS (OPTimal EMP
model with linear programming for a watershed having Single ownership) model developed for the
purpose to estimate the effectiveness of the EMPs in reducing the runoff and sediment yield. Based
on the value of sediment and water yield in natural condition and also considering the drainage
capacity of downstream the sediment yield and peak discharge should lie in the range of 0-2000
tonnes/yr and 0.5-1.5 cumec respectively.

Considering the economic status of the people, location of the plot and factor of cost effectiveness,
the EMPs like grass cover, garden (with ornamental or fruit plants) and detention pond (with
fishery, boating facility etc) are being considered. By employing these EMPs the following benefits
can be achieved:
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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence ILPWRM

2011-2012 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

l The vegetative cover over the land will lower sediment yield and run off. Thus minimizes
the chances of flood and landslide hazards.

l The people can get monetary benefits from the fruit gardens and fishery thus enhances
their economic status.

l The aesthetic beauty of the plot is increased which will enhance the scope of eco-
tourism.

After implementing the desired EMPs in the optimization model the following results are obtained
[Table 3 and Table 4]:

Table 3: Results of the EMP optimization model

Grass Garden Detention pond

(Area in ha) (with fruit and (with fishery, boating
Ornamental plants) facilities etc)
(Area in ha) (Area in ha)

0.2 0.623 0.05

Table 4 : Peak discharge, sediment yield and optimal cost of EMPs

considering the EMPs in the study site

Peak discharge Sediment yield Optional cost

(with EMPs) (with EMPs) for the EMPs
(cumec) (tonnes/yr) ( )

0.73 2000 2679222

The results of the optimization model clearly reflect the feasibility of EMPs from economic and
ecological point of view. It can thus be readily advised to allow the population up to the calculated
carrying capacity (782 nos.) and to develop the hilly area by employing EMPs to control the hazards
and conserve the ecosystem forever.
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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence ILPWRM

 2011-2012
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY : CONCEPT AND CALCULATION

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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence ILPWRM