DECEMBER 2015 P/ID 77602/

PBE1B/PBEXB

Time : Three hours Maximum : 100 marks

PART A — (5  6 = 30 marks)

Answer any FIVE questions.

1. Define probability. State and explain Baye’s

theorem.

2. Explain the three types of decision making

environments.

3. Define OR and discuss its scope.

4. Write short notes on LPP.

5. Define hypothesis. How to test the hypothesis?

6. What are all the applications of PERT and CPM?

7. Define a research report and explain its purpose.

8. What are the essentials of good sampling?

 PART B — (5 × 10 = 50 marks)

Answer any FIVE questions.

9. Consider an emergency room of a small rural

hospital where the past records indicate an
average of 5 arrivals daily. The demand for
emergency room service at this hospital is
distributed according to a Poisson distribution.
Calculate the probability of exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and
5 arrivals. What is the probability of more than 3
arrivals?

10. The following matrix gives the payoff of different

strategies (alternatives) S1 , S2 , S3 against
conditions (events) N1 , N 2 , N 3 and N 4 .
N1 N2 N3 N4
S1 Rs. 4,000 Rs. –100 Rs. 6,000 Rs. 18,000
S2 20,000 5,000 400 0
S3 20,000 15,000 –2,000 1,000

Indicate the decision taken under the following

approach. (a) Pessimistic (b) Optimistic
(c) Regret and (d) Equal probability.

11. Explain different types of probability sampling

techniques.

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12. Calculate the coefficient of correlation between
x and y from the following data.
x: 1 3 5 8 9 10
y : 3 4 8 10 12 11

13. Solve the following LPP by graphical method.

Maximize Z  3x  2 y
Subject to :
 2x  3 y  9
3x  2 y  20
x , y  0.

14. Show that assignment model is a special case of

transportation model.

15. What are the characteristics of a research report?

What functions does it perform?

16. You are given turn – over of 50 shops in a

particular region :
Turn – over
In town In village
Before sales campaign 20 10
After sales campaign 10 10
Can it be infered that sales campaign be
successful? Apply chi-square test.

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 PART C — (1 × 20 = 20 marks)

Compulsory

17. For the following data, fit the regression lines

equation of Y on X and X on Y .
Y : 8 36 23 27 14 12
X: 10 37 18 29 14 21

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