ARAB SPRING: THE HARBINGER OF CHAOS; CASE

STUDY OF SYRIA

RESEARCH PAPER

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Abstract: the paper focus is on the emergence of the Arab Spring as new
political phenomenon that rippled the entire regional politics. This unprecedented
event unleashed the worst kind of chaos and turmoil’s the region had ever known
since the Second World War.in addition, the paper is focusing on Syria civil war and its
perpetuity as the corollary of the Arab Spring. The Syria war proved to be a catalyst
for reshuffling the entire regional politics and this new development is also being
discussed and described in the paper.

Introduction
Arab Spring was a series of political uprising that first emerged in Tunisia and then
soon swept across North Africa and Middle East countries. This seismic event virtually
transformed the entire political, social and economic landscape of the Middle East
and North Africa countries. Initially, the Arab Spring appeared in the form of
demonstrations and protests against the repressive and autocratic regimes, but soon
they came to be transformed into conflicts and civil war. The Arab spring was
stimulated by myriad structural and proximate factors1. Although, the architectures of
this new political phenomenon succeeded in their primary objective which was to
overthrow the autocratic regimes, but it brought with itself seemingly unending chaos
in the region. Just within two years approximately 50000 people died in total in the
four most violent uprising in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria 2. Apart the above
casualties, millions of people have been forced to migrate other countries. The paper
will focus on the prolongation of the Syrian war and its impact on the regional and
extra regional politics

Research objectives:
To study about the nature of the Arab Spring
To discuss about implication of the Arab spring
To analyze the role of the different players

Research question:
Why the Syrian war raged for a long period
How the Syrian war impacted the regional and extra regional politics

Literature review
Lot of articles and research papers have been published on the Arab Spring so far.
Each writer has written on different aspects of the Arab Spring. Some have typically
focused on the gradual development of this unprecedented event and the driving
force behind it.
Writer like Ifat Idris in his research paper “government social development and
humanitarian conflicts” is talking about the social aspect of the Arab Spring. Abdul
Qadir Mushtaq and Muhammad Afzal in their research paper: Arab Spring and its
causes and consequences is well attempt and very much helpful in understanding the
nature of this new political development. In their brief research paper they have
provided very credible informations that helped me immensely in making in depth
analysis of the event, Muhammad M Aman – a specialist on the Middle East affairs,
has also brought to limelight those fundamental factors that had sparked the uprising.
The writer has also discussed the impact of the Arab Spring in a very lucid manners.
In addition, some writers have gone to the very bottom of the event. Writer like Rami
G Khouri has made very precise and meticulous analysis of the regional and extra
regional repercussion of the Arab Spring. The most conspicuous aspect of the Arab
Spring is undoubtedly the ensuing chaos and turmoil’s. Emma Graham Harrison in her
research paper: beyond Syria: the ArabSpring’s aftermath, has assiduously highlighted
this aspect of the Arab Spring. Literally, she has followed Rami G khouri, but she has
describes the phenomenal event in term of chaos and turmoils
The Arab Spring and the ongoing civil war in Syria is inextricably linked with each
other. The simmering conflict in Syria is undoubtedly is the direct result of the Arab
Spring. Brigadier (Ret) Ihsan Ur Rahman- a prominent analyst on the Middle East
affairs has explained the aftermath of the Arab Spring for Syria in his research paper:
the complexity of the Syria civil war. In his paper, he seems to have been trying to
unveil some basic fact and figures regarding the link between the Arab Spring and
Syria civil war. He explicitly explain the role regional and extra regional players who
have been fanning the war to secure their respective national interest in the region. It
is quite a hard task to measure exactly the repercussion of the Arab Spring, but writer
like Tarnawski has elegantly done it in his in depth analysis in his research paper: the
regional implications of the Arab Spring. Although everyone knows that the divergent
and incompatible interests of major powers embroiled Syria into a perpetual conflicts.
Yet, there are few writers who have made an audacious attempt to hold responsible
the major powers for the ongoing power show in the region in special and the Syria in
particular. But the research paper of Tung yui li and the TRT report were quite helpful
in understanding and analyzing the chaotic and devastative aspect of the Syria civil
war. Last but not the list, the said Karim research paper was also very much helpful in
understanding the nature of the Syria civil war.

Historical back ground

2011 was an unusual year for the world in special and for North Africa and Middle
East in particular. For the first time after the world war two the region came to
witness a holistic political shift.no wonder, this shift has been defined with varying
connotations; for some writers it was Arab Spring; for some it was Arab political
awakening. In simple words, it was a political uprising that emerged in Tunisia and
soon swept across the North Africa and Middle East countries.

Tunisia
Tunisia was the first country which set prelude of the so called unprecedented
political phenomenon. The seismic event was unleashed with the self-immolation of
Sad Bouzizi. Generally speaking, he is said to be the torch bearer of the Arab Spring.
But circumstances were ripe for such event as corruption was rampant in the country,
low wedges, inflation, and endemic joblessness had all become the facts of life for
many3
Unlike the other countries where political and economic chaos are still reigning,
Tunisia comparatively proved enough smart to withstand the aftermath of the
revolution. The revolution proved successful in its primary objectives: to overthrow
the Zain ul Abedin repressive regime. After the deposition of ben Ali, state of
emergency was declared in the country. The army commander Amar pledged to
protect the revolution4. Pm Muhammad Ghannouchi became the president. But the
very next day he handed over power to faud mebazi- the parliamentary speaker. Faud
mebazi facilitate the national election which was held in Oct 2011. The election
helped the country restore the state of normalcy.
Egypt
Egypt is considered to be the gateway of Middle East and North Africa countries.it
occupies an important strategic place in the whole region. Any political event
happening in the region bears direct impact on Egypt. Therefore it was inevitable that
the Arab Spring- sprouted in Tunisia would ripple the Egyptian politics. Egypt is one of
the country where the Arab spring proved comparatively less devastative. But chaos
and turmoils emerged in the wake of the Arab spring are still prevalent there which
are marring the country political atmosphere. The Arab spring was an opportunity for
the Egyptian people to overthrow the repressive regime of the Hosni Mubarak who
had been in power since last three decades. The event helped them overthrow the
autocratic regime and redeem the country from the clutches of authoritarianism. In
January 2011, thousands upon thousands of demonstrators, who had massed in Cairo
Tahir square succeeded in toppling a dictator who had been ruling the country with
iron hand for decades. The Hosni Mubarak regime was toppled with the aim and
aspirations to bring fair democracy in the country. But the toppling of the regime gave
birth to the worst kind of political and economic chaos in the country. After Hosni
Mubarak. Muhammad Morsy became the president of the country. He belonged to
the Muslim Brotherhood- the mainstream political party in Egypt founded by Hassan
al Bana in 1928. This transition of power did not help Egypt wriggle out itself from
political chaos.in July 2013 the country witnessed deadly clashes between the
supporters of al sisi and president morsy in Cairo University. Approximately 100
people were died in the clashes. In 2013, the existing chaos became more acute and
complex when the then army chief general al sisi removed morsy through a military
coup. In 2014, presidential election was held in the country. After the election al sisi
became the president of the country with overwhelming victory. Since July 2013, al
sisi killed hundreds of Morsy’s supporters and thousands have been imprisoned in
regular police crackdown. According to Human Right Watch at least 817 people were
killed and called it one of the world largest killing.
In addition to the political chaos entailed by the Arab in spring, the country suffered
immensely from economic chaos. The lingering political instability has badly affected
the country economy. Since the emergence of the so called political uprising food
prices, unemployment, inflation have been the hallmarks of the Egyptian economy.
Tourism and industrial sectors are the economic life line of the Egyptian economy and
either sectors have suffered a lot since 2012. In spite of the constitutionally elected
government, the country is likely to suffer from political crisis due to the stringent
policy of the incumbent government toward the opposition. Morsy- an elected
president has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. Interestingly, recently the Egypt
parliament approved the extension in the president al sisi power until 2030
Libya
Libya is also one of the most affected country by the Arab Spring. Buoyed by the other
revolts in the neighboring African countries, Libya popular uprising against the
authoritarian rule of Muamar Qadafi began in Feb 2011 6. At the time when the
popular uprising was emerging in Tunisia, the country was ripe to receive the flames
of the uprising. Although under the regime Libya was comparatively prosperous and
developed. But the people had become exhausted with such long authoritarian
regime. Prior to the popular uprising, the people had staged some revolts against the
Qadafi government in past. But those revolts were subsided by taking into account
the grievances of people. But the Feb revolt was utterly different from that of the
previous ones in both aspects: the nature and the people demands. This time the
people were more firm in their demands. Instead of using the past tactics to quell the
revolt. This time the Qadafi government started using force to crush the uprising and
to dilute the intensity of the revolt. As force is not the solution of any issue, the use of
force turned the nonviolent uprising into deadly clashes between the forces loyal to
Qadafi and the protesters. The clashes gave birth to a perpetual chaos and turmoils
that are still haunting the country. With each passing day situation in the country
started becoming deteriorated. The number of casualties increased immensely since
the uprising.
Seeing the ever deteriorating situation in the country, in March 2011, UN passed a
resolution that designated Libya no fly zone7 . In addition it called for the protection of
the civilians. In the wake of the UN resolution NATO started intervention in the
country in the name of civilian’s protection. On March 3rd NATO carried air strikes in
the country that killed thousands of civilians
It was just after eight months that some steps were taken to end up the then going
political chaos in the country.in Sep 2011, National Transition Council (NTC) was set
up. This constitutional body was charged with the following objectives:
To improve the justice system of the country
Disarming of the militias
To provide basic amenities to people
People pinned huge hopes to the NTC as it was like a silver in the dark. But NTC
grossly failed in its objectives. In July 2012, general election was held in the country
and the election was facilitated by NTC. After the election General National Congress
came into being and National Transition council handed over power to GNC. Like its
predecessor, the General National Congress also failed in bringing a desirable solution
to the prevalent chaos. In 2014, another election was held in the country that created
yet another constitutional body: the House of Representative (HoR). In spite of many
endeavors to end up the chronic political crisis, the Libya political atmosphere
remained marred due to the emergence of different militant groups, foreign
intervention, and the incompatible interest of different political stakeholders.
New era of political chaos began in 2014 when Haftar- a defector from the Qadafi
army, started military operation in against the Shura Council of Benghazi
Revolutionaries- the offshoot of the ISIL. The Shura Council was supported by Ansarul
Brigade led by Al Zahavi. While Haftar led Libya national army. This new era began
with the battle of Tripoli between the above mentioned two groups in july 2014. Since
from the beginning thousands of people have become the victims of the conflicts.
Hundreds and thousands have migrated to other countries. Since the popular wave of
the Arab Spring, 150000 people have migrated each year. Currently there are two
governments in Libya: government of National Accord that is led by Seraj and based
in Tripoli. This government is backed by UN. On the other hand, there is government
HoR that is led by Haftar and is based in Tabruk

Yemen
Yemen is another country which has been severely hit by the Arab Spring. Like the
other countries of the region, Yemen had also an autocratic government under Ali
Abdullah Saleh. He has been in power for the last 33 years14 . when protests erupted
in across the region, it also made its way into Yemen. The response of the government
was similar to the response given by Qadafi and Bashar Assad that transformd the
uprising into a civil war. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia has fueling the war for their
respective interests. Saudi Arabia has been carrying coalition air strikes against the
Houthis rebel militia group which is aided by Iran.
Syria
The Arab Spring proved far more destructive and devastative in Syria than any other affected
country of the region. The Arab Spring provided the people of Syria with an opportunity to raise
their hands against the oppressive regime of Bashar Ul Assad. Like the people of other countries
of the region, the people of Syria started demonstration in Feb 2012 agains the Assad
government which had unleashed oppression and suppression he had come into power in
2000. The people had been denied their fundamental rights. According to Brigadier (ret) Ihsan
Ur Rahman Khan when he was in Syria in 1990, under the role of Hafiz Al Assad- the father of
Bashar Al Assad, life in Syria was rather repressive under repressive government 9 .
Amidst the government repressiveness the uprising of people was inevitable. The prompt
response of the people of Syria to the Arab Spring clearly shows that they were waiting for such
event. First, the uprising erupted in the Northern part of the Syria. The people had certain
demands from the Assad government for which they had staged demonstration. The Assad
government unnecessarily responded with the use of force that turned the non violent
demonstration into conflicts. The Assad government thought that by use of force it could
suppress the revolt as the regime had had the experience of using force against the people in
the past such as Hamma massacre, jisr al shaghoor massacre, Samadhi massacre and the
massacre of Palmyra. In past revolts were staged by the people against the regime at different
times. The regimes had used force to quell those revolts. But this time the situation was utterly
different from the past. The use of force paved further ways for staging revolts in other parts of
the country and soon the entire country was engulfed by the flames of revolts against the Assad
government. Moreover, the use of force transformed the nonviolent demonstration in to a
sectarian war. The once nonviolent demonstrators have been turned into Free Syria Army (FSA)
whose main purpose is to topple down the Assad regime. With each passing day the conflict
assumed different forum due to the emergence of different militias groups. The incompatible
interests of the regional and the extra regional players has had huge share in the conflict.
It has been eight years since the Arab Spring has made its way into Syria, but the conflicts is
likely to be continued in the upcoming days also. Since from the inception of the Arab Spring,
chaos have reigned heavy in Syria in term of casualties. More than half a million people are died
in the conflict so far and more than five million have been forced to migrate into other
countries.
Why the Syrian civil war raged for a long period
Why the Syrian civil war raged for a long period
The chaos and turmoils brought by the Arab Spring have virtually subsided except in few
countries where its corollaries are still existing in in term of casualties. More than 8 years have
passed since the Arab Spring has spurred chaos and conflicts in Syria, but the destruction and
casualties are still going on and is likely to be continued in the upcoming days also. The answer
to the question that why Syria civil war raged for a long time is as much difficult as simple is it.
The ground realities pertaining to the Syria civil war is very much confusing. The assessment of
these ground realities is essential to reach the ultimate reality and undoubtedly it is a difficult
job as it involves very thorough and meticulous analysis. From the past few months I have been
studying and analyzing the Arab Spring and particularly the Syrian war and that study helped
me know about the real reasons behind the prolongation of the Syria civil war. The followings
are the main driving force behind the prolongation of the Syria civil war.

1 Sectarian element: nothing has more contributed to the Syria civil war than the
element of sectarianism. Demographically Syria is a Sunni majority state. The Shia community
constitutes a little chunk of the population. According to Mc Gill school of computer science,
population of Syria is 18,448,752; and Syria population is 90% including 74%Sunni Muslims and
16% other Muslim groups (the Alawi Shi’a, and druz9). But in spite of being in minority, the
Alawit Shi’a- which constitutes only 10% of the total population, was ruling over the entire
country. The command of the government and the military was in the hands of the Alawit Shi’a
sect. key posts in government and military were in the hands of the Alawit Shi’a community.
The policy of the Assad government toward the Sunni Muslims was extremely repressive and
oppressive. The popular uprising in Tunisia and Egypt provided the Sunni Muslims with an
opportunity to stage a revolt against the Assad government. The first surge of people appeared
in the city of Dera10 . The Assad government used state force to quell the revolt. But the
opposition forces started receiving aids from the Sunni majority countries such as Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, UAE and Turkey. While the Assad government was receiving logistic and financial aid
from Iran and Hezbollah. Undoubtedly throughout the war this element has had visible bear on
the prolongation of Syria civil war.

2 proactive role of the regional players

Many scholars describe the Syria conflict as a civil war between the Assad government and the
opposition forces. But seeing and studying the ground realities clearly show that the Syria
conflict is not less than a proxy war. The regional players showed their military and financial
muscles in the Syrian conflict. For them Syria was a theater where they showed their respective
strength against each other. Iran has had the ambitious to play a dominant role in the region.
But such ambition has been a great sources of concern for the Sunni majority states particularly
the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.to dominate the region Iran made a bigger plan which is known as
a land bridge that will connect Tehran with Hezbollah via Iraq and Syria. The project is also as
shit crescent. According to this plan Iran wants to create or have shiat government in Iraq and
Syria. To disrupt the plan, Syria was the most plausible option for the Sunni majority states to
contain the intractable influence of Iran in the region. Since from 2012, Saudi Arabia, UAE,
Qatar and Turkey are aiding the Free Syria Army while the Assad government has been
receiving aid from Iran and Hezbollah. Undoubtedly such massive influence on the part of the
regional players have been one of the major cause of the prolongation of the Syria civil war
The US Mc Gurk diplomacy
The US Mc Gurk diplomacy is also one of the reason behind the prolongation of the Syria civil
war. Brett H, Mc Gurk, was appointed by Barak Obama as the special envoy for the global
coalition to counter ISIl in Sep 201411. During his mission he played a decisive role in the Syria
conflict. During his the Kurdish became more proactive than ever before. According to the TRT
report, he facilitated the Kurdish people to intensify their agenda. Coincidently, the isis
emerged in the northern part of Syria in 2014 and the separatist movement of Kurdistan was
also going there which is a matter to be pondered over. For some writer Mc Gurk played the
role played by the Lawrence of Arabia during World War 1. He provided the Kurdish people a
prime opportunity to strengthen their stance over their agenda of independent Kurdish state.

The major powers roles

The share of the major powers particularly the US and Russia can be easily identified. Both the
countries jumped into the quagmire in 2014 and 2015 respectively. US intervened in to the war
in Sep 2014 in the name of the civilian’s protection. Next year in Sep 2015 Russia also jumped in
to the conflict on the request of Bashar Ul Assad12. Instead of playing desirable role, they
intensified the conflict. Pathetically, the Syria civil war provided them an opportunity to play
their power politics in order to assert their respective influence in the region. It will be no
exaggeration to that the prolongation of the Syria civil war owes much to the undesirable role
played by US Russia

The impact of the Syria civil war on the regional and

extra regional politics
The impact of the Syria civil war has been felt across the region and extra regional politics and
the impact is likely to be felt in the upcoming years. The Syria war are vividly pointing out some
legacies that will not be forgotten in the upcoming years. These legacies will also help the
regional and the extra regional countries define their respective political course. The Syrian war
will also help the regional countries define their role in international affairs. The war also
undermined the credibility of the Syrian civil war as it remained as silent spectacular to the
immense casualties in Syria. The following are the major areas where the impact of the war has
been felt.

Reconfiguration of new power.

The Syria civil war proved to be a catalyst for transition of balance of power in the region and
also beyond the region. In the wake of the Syria civil war, the regional and extra regional
countries reconfigured their power in the region. Since 2012, approximately twenty countries
including the two major countries namely US and Russia took part in the war. The participation
of these in the war will also define their role in international affairs.
In this apparent new order Russia is emerged as the most assertive state in the region in special
and particularly in the world. With the onset of the new, Russia growing foothold in Afghanistan
and Ukraine has already defined it future role in the world politics. But the Syrian war provided
Russia with an opportunity to assert it influence in the world politics. Russia firmly and
successfully backed the Assad regime. It jumped into the conflict in the midst 2015. Prior to his
direct intervention, Russia was backing the Assad government covertly. According to Rami G
khouri, “a fascinating consequence of Russia’s emphatic, consistent and kinetic support for Syria has
been its emergence as the international power with the most leverage diplomatically across the entire
region.
The role of UN
Being one of the most credible and prestigious institution, UN has been mandated to resolve
issues and conflicts amicably. But in case of Syria it has grossly failed in delivering it primary
objectives. More than dozens of resolutions were brought to the UN Security Council but it
flatly failed in implementing them.
The virtually passive and spectacular role of UN certainly undermined its credibility.
Pathetically, it is no less than a slap on the face of the UN, that it has been witnessing the worst
kind of human catastrophe of the century. Since from 2012 more than 500000 people are died
in the war and more than 5 million have migrated to flee the war but UN, in spite of having the
responsibility of taking concrete steps to stop war, has failed in saving Syria from utter
destruction

The sharpening of the Saudi-Iran rivalry

Saudi Arabia and Iran being two arch rivals of the region has had the two most influential
countries of the Middle East region. They share a long history of bitter rivalry since the
outbreak of the Khomeini revolution in 1979. But the Syria civil war intensified the existing
rivalry. Both countries are supporting their respective militias: Saudi Arabia is supporting Free
Syria Army while Iran is supporting forces loyal to Asad regime. The showdown of both the
countries has put the region into seemingly unending chaos and conflict in the region.
CONCLUSION:
Nothing has been so disastrous in the recent history than the Arab Spring as it has left
the Middle East in part devastated and politically fragmented. The Arab Spring which
erupted in Tunisia- in the wake of the self-immolation of sad bouiziz proved to be a
catalyst of disorder and perpetual chaos in the region. From Tunisia it penetrated into
Libya. In Libya it entailed the worst sort of political and economic chaos. After the
death of Maumar Qadafi, Libya came to suffer from the power vacuum which is still
haunting an enduring peace in the region. After Libya, the other countries such as
Egypt, Yemen and Syria fell one after another to the wave of the so popular uprising.
In Syria it proved to be the most destructive and devastative: it took half a million
lives including civilian and forces. Similarly more than 5 million have been forced on
migration. The Arab Spring rendered Syria to be a power show theater where
regional and extra regional players have been showing their respective military
muscles against each other. As for as the implications of Syria civil war are concerned
it have been perilous so far both in term of casualties and the reconfiguration of
politics in the region.
Ifat Idris: “government social development humanitarian conflict”,
https://gsdrc.org/publication/libya/ political/economy
Murkin tarnawski: “regional implication of the Arab Spring”,
https:/www.researchgate.net/publication/307916855
https://en.m.wikipedia.org

Egypt long bloody road from Arab Spring: from hope to chaos,
www.cnn.com/2016/04/27/middleast/egypt-how
www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/04/happening,-libya-today
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/syria-civil
Brigadier (ret) Dr Ihsan Ur Rahman: “the complexities of the Syria civil crisis”,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/23022019-comlexities of Syria-crisis-analysis
Brigadier (ret) Dr Ihsan Ur Rahman: “the complexities of the Syria civil crisis”,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/23022019-comlexities of Syria-crisis-analysis

Brigadier (ret) Dr Ihsan ur Rahman: “the complexities of the Syria civil crisis”,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/23022019-comlexities of Syria-crisis-analysis
Sajid Karim: “Syria crisis and geopolitical implication”,
http://www.academia.edu/33544788syrian/crisis-geopolitics-and-implication
Sajid Karim: “Syria crisis and geopolitical implication”,
http://www.academia.edu/33544788syrian/crisis-geopolitics-and-implication
11 http://en.m.wikipedia.org
12Sajid Karim: “Syria crisis and geopolitical implication”,
http://www.academia.edu/33544788syrian/crisis-geopolitics-and-implication
13 Rami G, Khouri: “the implication of the Syrian war for new regional order in the Middle East”
http://www.iai.it
14 Emma Graham Harrison: “beyond Syria: the Arab Spring aftermath”
15 http://www researchgate.net