Statistics 101.

Elementary Statistics
Problem Set 2
Semester 1

Instructions:

• Do not utilize shortcuts and never skip any lines

• Questionable moves should be backed with reasons (why you took that step)

• Try to answer the problems on your own as much as possible before working as a
group

• Do not forget to define random variables and their distributions. Random variables
with no named distributions must be properly specified.

Items:

(1) Three prisoners, A, B, and C, are on death row. The governor decides to pardon
one of the three and chooses at random the prisoner to pardon. He informs the
warden of his choice but requests that the name be kept a secret for a few days.

The next day, prisoner A tries to get the warden to tell him who had been par-
doned. The warden refuses. Prisoner A then asks which of prisoners B or C will be
executed. The warden decides that he could tell who among prisoner B or C will
be executed since he thought he would be passing no information to prisoner A. He
then tells that prisoner B is going to die.

Prisoner A gets a bright idea, and asks the warden if he could swap fates with
Prisoner C. The warden, thinking that he did not pass any information to prisoner
A, agreed. Prove that the probability of A surviving has jumped to 2/3 (it was
originally 1/3, because the governor choses who to pardon randomly).

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(2) Prove each of the following statements. Assume that any conditioning event has
positive probability

(a) If P (B) = 1 then P (A|B) = P (A) for all A

P (A)
(b) If A ⊂ B, then P (B|A) = 1 and P (A|B) =
P (B)
P (A)
(c) If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P (A|A ∪ B) =
P (A) + P (B)
(3) A pair of events A and B cannot be simultaneously mutually exclusive and inde-
pendent. Prove that if P (A) > 0 and P (B) > 0, then:

(a) If A and B are mutually exclusive, they cannot be independent

(b) If A and B are independent, they cannot be mutually exclusive

(4) Standardized tests provide an interesting application of probability theory. Suppose

first that a standardized consists of 20 multiple-choice questions each with 4 possible
answers. If the student guesses on each question, then taking the exam can be
modelled as a sequence of 20 independent events. Find the probability that the
student gets at least 10 questions correct, given that he is guessing.

(5) Suppose a random sample of size n will be selected from a large population with
mean µ = 2 and standard deviation σ = 6. The researchers wish that there is
a 0.95 chance of selecting a sample whose absolute difference between its sample
mean and population mean, |X̄ − µ| will be less than 1.5. What sample size must
they choose?

(6) Suppose the mean monthly income of the households in the exclusive subdivisions in
Metro Manila is 200,000 with a standard deviation 150,000. What is the probability
of selecting a random sample of 100 families whose sample mean monthly income
is larger than 250,000?

(7) Suppose the weights of female adults are normally distributed with mean µ = 120
lbs and standard deviation σ = 10 lbs. What is the probability of selecting a
random sample of 25 female adults whose total weights will exceed the elevators
capacity if its maximum capacity is 2, 875 lbs.?