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The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is

Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?
V E R I F I C AT I O N N E E D E D

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Published on Jun 1, 2002 in The Pakistan Development Review · DOI :10.30541/v41i2pp.107-120 Copy DOI
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Ehsan U. Choudhri 19 (Carleton University), Mohsin S. Khan 37 (International Monetary Fund)

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Abstract
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This paper challenges the popular view that devaluation of the rupee is in ationary. Recent developments in the
theoretical literature are reviewed to explain why consumer prices would be unresponsive to exchange rate
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changes in the short run. Then empirical tests are conducted for Pakistan during the period 1982 to 2001 to
examine whether in ation is systematically related to changes in the exchange rate. The empirical analysis
nds no association between rupee devaluations and in ation in Pakistan. It appears, therefore, that concerns
about the in ationary consequences of rupee devaluation are unsupported by the facts

Devaluation In ation Macroeconomics Economics Short run Exchange rate Rupee

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References 20

Pakistani women: a socio-economic and demographic pro le.

Published on Jan 1, 1986
N. M. Shah 1

8 Citations Add To Collection

Women's participation in the labour force : a methods test in India for improving its
measurement
Published on Jan 1, 1988
Richard Anker 1 , M.E. Khan 1 , R.B. Gupta 1

The authors explore reasons why labor force statistic for women often falsely portray women as having low labor force
activity. They rely heavily on a methodological survey jointly conducted by the International Labour Organisation and the
Operations Research Group Baroda in Uttar Pradesh India which was specially designed to provide hard statistical
evidence on factors causing female labor force activity to be under-reported in many censuses and surveys. 1621 rural
households were surveyed. Cha... more

13 Citations Add To Collection

Exchange Rate and In ation Dynamics

Published on Sep 1, 1999 in The Pakistan Development Review
Eatzaz Ahmad 11 (Quaid-i-Azam University), Saima Ali 2 (Quaid-i-Azam University)

This paper studies simultaneous determination of nominal exchange rate and domestic price level in Pakistan. The
estimated model contains su cient built-in dynamics to trace the pattern and speed of adjustment in the two variables in
response to temporary or permanent shocks. The two domestic shocks considered in the paper are monetary and real
shocks, while the three external shocks considered are import price, export price and foreign exchange reserves shocks.
The study nds that the impact... more

28 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes

Published on May 1, 1986 in National Bureau of Economic Research
Paul Krugman 96 (Princeton University)

It has been widely remarked that US import prices have not fully re ected movements in the exchange rate. This paper
begins with an investigation of the actual extent of "pricing to market" by foreign suppliers. It shows that pricing to market
is a real phenomenon, but not universal; in particular, evidence on German export prices suggests that stickiness of import
prices is largely con ned to machinery and transport equipment. The paper then considers a number of possible models.
While the ev... more

749 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Female status and fertility in Pakistan.

Published on Dec 1, 1978 in The Pakistan Development Review
Sabiha Hassan Syed 2 (Government of Pakistan)

Observations a nd interpretations of the demographic transition in Western Europe indicate that among the plethora of
forces in uencing the transition, one of the factors that played a signi cant role was the variable generally known as the
'status and roles of women'. During the period of socio-economic change in the Western societies, extraordinary changes
took place in the roles of women. Not only did new opportunities open up to women but also new familial patterns of
parental control, int... more

8 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Culture, the status of women, and demographic behaviour : illustrated with the case
of India
Published on Jan 1, 1992
Alaka M. Basu 1

The eld area and its inhabitants the status of women fertility infant and child mortality sex differences in physical well-
being.

67 Citations Add To Collection

A Re-examination of Fertility Transition in Pakistan

Published on Sep 1, 2000 in The Pakistan Development Review
Ghulam Yasin Soomro 3 (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)

Pakistan is passing through an early stage of fertility transition. The slow-paced transition has been analysed in an earlier
study done by Sathar and Casterline (1998), which concludes that the increase in the levels of prevalence has accelerated
the fertility transition in Pakistan and as a consequence marital fertility has declined. However, this claim is not supported
by the relevant statistics. A re-examination reveals that the effect of contraception is the lowest in the decline of
fertili... more

7 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Gender inequality and fertility in two Nepali villages.

Published on Sep 1, 1995 in Population and Development Review 3.55
S. P. Morgan 1 , B. B. Niraula 1

This study supports the authors argument that greater autonomy for women lowers fertility by reducing the desire for
more children increasing contraceptive use and lowering the level of unmet need for contraception. Social context in
general and gender inequality in particular are important determinants of fertility behavior. The theoretical strategy relies
on the quasi-anthropological approach of Smith (1989). Surveys were conducted in two villages in Nepal Bagahi and
Benighat both patriarchal ... more

149 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Women's position and demographic change

Published on Jan 1, 1994 in Population 1.21
Nora Federici 2 , Karen Oppenheim Mason 1 , Sølvi Sogner 1

This volume is based on a conference on Womens Position and Demographic Change in the Course of Development held
in Asker near Oslo Norway 15-18 June 1988....A series of problems that arise from two of the most dramatic revolutions of
our time is discussed. The rst of these is the demographic transition that is the shift from death and birth rates that are
high but closely balanced to rates that are low but again closely balanced....The other dramatic revolution that inspires this
volume is th... more

87 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Does the In ationary Environment

Matter?
Published on Jan 1, 2001 in Journal of International Money and Finance 1.62
Ehsan U. Choudhri 19 (Carleton University), Dalia S Hakura 14 (International Monetary Fund)

383 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

1 2

Cited By 18

Policy of In ation Targeting in the Presence of Fiscal De cit and External Debt: Opt
or Not to Opt
Published on Dec 1, 2011 in The Pakistan Development Review
M. Ali Kemal 5 (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)

The main task of the macroeconomic policy-makers is to control unemployment and in ation at the minimum possible
level. Different policies have been tried to control in ation at its minimum possible level and in ation targeting is the most
popular among them. It is the commitment to maintain in ation at the announced level and use interest rate as an
instrument to control it if it is expected to diverge from the announced level. However in a higher ?dollar denominated
debt? country Central B... more

Source Cite Add To Collection

In ation in PakistanMoney or Wheat

Published on Jan 1, 2006
Mohsin S. Khan 37 , Axel Schimmelpfennig 8

Add To Collection

An Analysis of the Relationship between In ation and Gold Prices: Evidence from
Pakistan
Published on Jan 1, 2013 in Lahore Journal of Economics
Saira Tufail 2 , Sadia Batool 1

In this study, we formulate a new in ation equation to capture the potential effects of gold and stock prices on in ation in
Pakistan. We aim to assess the in ation-hedging properties of gold compared to other assets such as real estate, stock
exchange securities, and foreign currency holdings. Applying time-series econometric techniques (cointegration and
vector error correction models) to data for 1960–2010, we nd that gold is a potential determinant of in ation in Pakistan.
On the other... more

5 Citations Add To Collection

Pakistan : selected issues and statistical appendix

Published on Jan 1, 2001
S. Eken 1

8 Citations Add To Collection

CAN A RULE-BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING

COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN
Published on Jan 1, 2007 in Developing Economies 0.56

Saade Chami 2 (International Monetary Fund), Selim Elekdag 12 (International Monetary Fund) + 1 Authors Nabil
Ben Ltaifa 2 (International Monetary Fund)

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has
been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor in ation expectations. This paper
argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule-based approach
with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a exible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in
many developing cou... more

2 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Is Pakistan’s Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and

Implications for Development and Growth
Published on Dec 1, 2010 in Oxford Development Studies
Jesus Felipe 20 (Asian Development Bank), John McCombie 24 (University of Cambridge), Kaukab Naqvi 1 (Asian
Development Bank)
This paper examines the extent to which Pakistan’s growth has been, or is likely to be, limited or constrained by its
balance-of-payments (BOP). The paper begins by brie y considering the BOP-constrained growth model in the context of
demand and supply-oriented approaches to economic growth. Evidence presented suggests that Pakistan’s maximum
growth rate consistent with equilibrium on the basic balance is approximately 5% per annum. This is below the long-term
target rate of a growth of gross d... more

15 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Political instability and in ation in Pakistan

Published on Dec 1, 2011 in Journal of Asian Economics
Safdar Ullah Khan 3 (Bond University), Omar Farooq Saqib 2 (State Bank of Pakistan)

This study investigates the effects of political instability on in ation in Pakistan. Applying the Generalized Method of
Moments technique and using data from 1951 to 2007, we examine this link through two different models. The results of
the ‘monetary’ model suggest that the effects of monetary determinants are rather marginal and that they depend upon
the political environment of Pakistan. The ‘nonmonetary’ model's ndings explicitly establish a positive association
between political instabi... more

14 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan?

Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime
Published on Jan 1, 2006
Shaghil Ahmed 1 (State Bank of Pakistan), Iffat Ara 1 , Kalim Hyder 1

A structural vector autoregression (VAR) model shows that external shocks are important in driving economic uctuations
in Pakistan and their importance has increased since September 11, 2001. The primary source of external shocks is
foreign remittances, while foreign output has a limited effect. Keeping xed external factors, an exogenous real exchange
rate depreciation shock lowers output—a positive effect on real net exports (largely resulting from import compression
rather export expansion... more

8 Citations Add To Collection

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Does Misalignment

Matter?
Published on Mar 1, 2010 in The Pakistan Development Review
Atif Ali Jaffri 1 (University of Gujrat)

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate changes on consumer prices (commonly known as exchange rate
pass-through (ERPT)) in Pakistan for the period 1995M1 to 2009M3. The study estimates short-run and long-run ERPT in
Pakistan while taking into account the existing real exchange rate misalignment (RERM). The results suggest that the
ERPT to consumer price in ation in Pakistan is very low (close to zero). The impact of the previous periods’ misalignment
on in ation is found signi ca... more

5 Citations Source Cite Add To Collection

Does Volatility in Government Borrowing Leads to Higher In ation? Evidence from

Pakistan
Published on Dec 5, 2007 in Journal of Applied Economic Sciences
Adnan Haider 7 , Safdar Ullah Khan 3

This study analyzes the impact of volatility in government borrowing from central bank (GBCB) on domestic in ation in
Pakistan. This paper utilizes Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Hetroskedasticity (GARCH) model to estimate
volatility in GBCB using monthly data from July 1992 to June 2007. The empirical results, based on auto regressive
distributed lag (ARDL) with bound testing technique suggest that domestic in ation in Pakistan is related with volatility in
government borrowing from ... more

4 Citations Add To Collection

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