Retail Sales in April 2019

Retailers maintained The latest Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia in April 2019 showed how
positive sales growth retailers maintained positive sales growth in April 2019. The Real Sales Index (RSI) stood at a
in April 2019. level of 229.3 in the reporting period as growth decelerated to 6.7% (yoy) from 10.1% (yoy) in
March 2019 yet increased compared with the 4.1% (yoy) recorded in the same period one year
earlier (Graph 1 and Graph 2).
Graph 1 Real Retail Sales Index Graph 2 Monthly and Annual Real Sales Growth (%)

Retailers confirmed that Spare Parts and Accessories (25.8% yoy), Clothing (22.8% yoy)
as well as Other Household Equipment (10.5% yoy) were the main drivers of sales performance
in the reporting period.

Retail Sales Survey 1

 Retail Sales Expectations for May 2019
In May 2019, retailers expected expansive sales performance compared with conditions in
In May 2019, retailers April 2019 on strong festive demand during Ramadan. The respondents expected retail sales to
expected expansive grow 9.0% (yoy), up from 6.7% (yoy) in April 2019 and 8.3% (yoy) in the same period one year
sales on strong
ago (Graph 2). The gains come amidst faster sales growth expected for Spare Parts and
seasonal demand
during Ramadan.
Accessories as well as Cothing, which accelerated respectively from 25.8% (yoy) and 22.8% in
April 2019 (yoy) to 30.6% (yoy) and 26.8% (yoy) in May 2019. Furthermore, retailers expected
sales of Food, Beverages and Tobacco to accelerate to 10.3% (yoy) from 5.8% (yoy) the month
earlier (Graph 3).

Graph 3 Real Sales Growth of Commodity Groups (%, yoy)

Regional Real Sales

Retailers in most of the surveyed cities maintained positive sales growth in April 2019, led
In May 2019, retailers in by Makassar (41.8% yoy) followed by Manado (35.6% yoy) (Table 6). Congruous with faster RSI
Surabaya expected growth nationally, in May 2019, respondents also expected expansive retail sales performance in
positive sales
the majority of cities, including Surabaya (50.3% yoy) and Makassar (40.2% yoy) (Figure 1).
performance.

Figure 1 May 2019 Real Sales Growth* by Region (%, yoy)

*preliminary figure

Retail Sales Survey 2

 Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 and 6 Months
Retailers expected milder inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (July 2019) as supply
Retailers expected milder and demand dynamics return to normal after Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Such indications were
inflationary pressures in confirmed by a correction in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 160.5 from a level of
the next 3 months.
174.6 the month earlier (Graph 5). Meanwhile, the respondents expected a build-up of price
pressures in the next 6 months (October 2019), with the corresponding 6-month PEI increasing
to 157.1 from 152.8 the month earlier (Graph 6).

Graph 5 Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three Graph 6 Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Six Months
Months

Sales Expectations for the Upcoming 3 and 6 Months

Retailers expected sales performance to soften in the next 3 months (July 2019) as
Retailers expected seasonal demand returns to normal in the wake of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr. Accordingly, the 3-
declining sales
month Sales Expectations Index (SEI) slumped to 143.0 from 154.9 the month earlier. Regarding
performance in the next 3
a 6-month horizon, the respondents expected expansive sales reading in October 2019, as
months
indicated by a bump in the 6-month SEI to 153.7 from a level of 149.9 the month earlier (Graph
7).

Graph 7 Sales Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three and Six Months

Retail Sales Survey 3

 Appendix

Graph 8 Real Sales Growth of Motor Vehicles Part & Accessories Graph 9 Real Sales Growth of Food, Beverages
Groups and Tobacco Groups

Graph 10 Real Sales Growth of Automotive Fuels Commodity Groups Graph 11 Real Sales Growth of Information & Communication Equipment
Groups

Graph 12 Real Sales Growth of Other Household Equipment Graph 13 Real Sales Growth of Cultural and Recreation Goods
Commodity Groups

Graph 14 Real Sales Growth of Other Goods Graph 15 Real Sales Growth of Clothing

Retail Sales Survey 4

 Table 1 Real Sales Index by Categories

2017 2018 2019 Changes

DESCRIPTION
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Apr May*
Motor vehicles part and Accessories 127.1 119.3 119.0 120.3 122.2 130.9 127.0 128.5 128.4 127.7 129.5 130.7 131.8 130.6 132.0 130.4 132.3 132.2 129.0 128.5 130.1 130.4 132.1 135.5 144.2 148.9 159.3 164.1 172.7 4.8 8.7

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 209.4 202.0 210.1 215.6 227.4 244.8 221.0 214.0 212.2 214.1 218.6 235.1 213.6 212.0 224.5 232.1 253.1 260.9 232.0 231.3 225.1 221.0 226.7 256.5 232.6 234.9 248.8 245.6 279.1 (3.2) 33.5

Automotive Fuels 76.4 76.3 77.9 79.8 80.8 77.2 77.7 81.0 78.7 81.7 81.8 83.5 79.4 75.8 82.4 88.9 88.2 85.4 89.7 90.9 92.5 96.3 96.6 95.0 88.3 84.5 85.6 88.8 89.8 3.2 0.9

Information & Communication Equipment 437.6 404.8 419.0 411.4 404.8 421.1 395.9 367.4 374.3 370.9 388.2 406.0 382.0 357.2 350.8 359.1 366.2 360.6 340.8 318.8 323.1 312.9 330.2 364.3 327.7 326.2 328.8 330.8 336.1 2.0 5.4

Other Household Equipment 172.2 162.1 162.0 159.4 160.4 172.6 157.8 151.4 153.2 154.3 154.5 159.9 155.0 155.4 162.1 163.3 171.0 171.6 166.2 169.3 165.6 166.1 164.0 173.4 167.7 165.1 175.3 180.5 182.1 5.2 1.6

Cultural and Recreation Goods 108.9 104.0 107.5 112.4 116.7 119.4 116.8 117.6 113.3 113.9 111.5 117.4 112.3 109.8 109.8 118.3 117.2 123.8 123.3 121.6 118.1 122.5 123.7 134.3 136.4 139.0 125.7 122.5 128.4 (3.2) 5.8

Other Goods 129.7 118.3 126.8 127.4 142.0 197.9 146.7 138.7 132.6 134.2 133.8 142.2 136.1 137.4 152.2 154.7 191.6 213.9 184.6 189.4 189.6 193.6 202.3 210.8 205.6 194.5 216.1 214.1 245.4 (2.0) 31.3

- o/w Clothing 135.3 125.2 130.3 131.7 143.5 209.6 154.5 144.1 139.4 139.0 139.3 146.5 142.0 138.0 140.7 144.9 167.2 186.2 174.6 173.4 178.4 173.2 179.7 187.3 181.6 184.5 198.6 177.9 211.9 (20.7) 34.0

TOTAL INDEX 207.2 197.1 204.0 206.5 214.3 232.4 209.9 202.1 201.2 202.3 206.7 219.5 203.5 200.0 209.1 215.0 232.0 237.8 216.0 214.3 210.8 208.1 213.7 236.3 218.1 218.2 230.2 229.3 252.9 (0.8) 23.5

*) preliminary figure

Table 2 Real Sales Index Growth (year on year, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

DESCRIPTION
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Apr May*
Motor vehicles part and Accessories 16.6 10.9 8.3 9.2 8.7 4.6 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 -0.4 -3.1 3.7 9.5 11.0 8.4 8.3 1.1 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.0 3.7 9.4 14.0 20.7 25.8 30.6 5.2 4.7

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 7.3 5.1 7.1 8.4 9.7 10.5 -0.3 7.9 7.6 9.9 7.8 8.1 2.0 4.9 6.8 7.7 11.3 6.6 5.0 8.1 6.1 3.3 3.7 9.1 8.9 10.8 10.9 5.8 10.3 (5.1) 4.5

Automotive Fuels -9.9 -10.2 -10.7 -6.4 -0.8 1.0 -1.2 3.4 -0.1 4.3 5.8 4.3 4.0 -0.7 5.9 11.5 9.3 10.7 15.4 12.2 17.5 17.9 18.0 13.7 11.1 11.5 3.9 -0.1 1.8 (4.0) 1.9

Information & Communication Equipment 12.5 6.1 2.3 0.2 -3.8 -0.4 -2.5 -7.7 -6.5 -11.9 -4.8 -11.4 -12.7 -11.7 -16.3 -12.7 -9.5 -14.4 -13.9 -13.2 -13.7 -15.7 -15.0 -10.3 -14.2 -8.7 -6.3 -7.9 -8.2 (1.6) (0.3)

Other Household Equipment 2.2 1.4 1.2 -4.6 -7.5 -4.9 -17.2 -9.7 -9.7 -9.5 -10.5 -13.5 -10.0 -4.1 0.1 2.4 6.7 -0.5 5.3 11.8 8.1 7.7 6.2 8.4 8.2 6.2 8.2 10.5 6.5 2.4 (4.1)

Cultural and Recreation Goods 7.8 2.0 3.5 4.6 10.3 3.0 4.6 3.7 -1.7 0.9 -1.8 0.3 3.1 5.6 2.2 5.2 0.4 3.7 5.6 3.4 4.3 7.5 10.9 14.4 21.5 26.5 14.5 3.6 9.6 (10.9) 5.9

Other Goods -14.4 -12.4 -9.2 -8.8 -4.0 5.3 -16.0 -2.8 -7.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.2 5.0 16.2 20.0 21.4 34.9 8.1 25.9 36.5 43.0 44.3 51.2 48.3 51.1 41.6 42.0 38.4 28.1 (3.6) (10.3)

- o/w Clothing -8.7 -4.7 -3.3 -3.2 -0.6 15.7 -9.3 3.0 -1.6 0.0 2.2 -1.7 5.0 10.2 7.9 10.0 16.5 -11.2 13.0 20.4 28.1 24.6 29.0 27.9 27.9 33.7 41.2 22.8 26.8 (18.4) 4.0

TOTAL INDEX 6.3 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 6.3 -3.3 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.5 0.7 -1.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 8.3 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.8 2.9 3.4 7.7 7.2 9.1 10.1 6.7 9.0 (3.4) 2.4

*) preliminary figure

Table 3 Real Sales Index Growth (month to month, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

DESCRIPTION
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Apr May*
Motor vehicles part and Accessories -5.8 -6.2 -0.3 1.1 1.6 7.1 -3.0 1.2 -0.1 -0.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 -0.9 1.1 -1.2 1.5 0.0 -2.4 -0.4 1.2 0.2 1.3 2.6 6.4 3.3 7.0 3.0 5.3 (4.0) 2.3

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco -3.7 -3.5 4.0 2.6 5.5 7.6 -9.7 -3.2 -0.8 0.9 2.1 7.5 -9.1 -0.8 5.9 3.4 9.0 3.1 -11.1 -0.3 -2.7 -1.8 2.6 13.1 -9.3 1.0 5.9 -1.3 13.6 (7.2) 14.9

Automotive Fuels -4.6 -0.1 2.0 2.4 1.3 -4.4 0.7 4.3 -2.9 3.8 0.2 2.1 -4.9 -4.6 8.8 7.9 -0.8 -3.2 5.0 1.4 1.7 4.2 0.2 -1.6 -7.1 -4.3 1.3 3.8 1.1 2.5 (2.7)

Information & Communication Equipment -4.5 -7.5 3.5 -1.8 -1.6 4.0 -6.0 -7.2 1.9 -0.9 4.7 4.6 -5.9 -6.5 -1.8 2.4 2.0 -1.5 -5.5 -6.5 1.3 -3.2 5.5 10.3 -10.0 -0.5 0.8 0.6 1.6 (0.2) 1.0

Other Household Equipment -6.9 -5.9 -0.1 -1.6 0.6 7.6 -8.6 -4.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 3.5 -3.1 0.3 4.3 0.8 4.7 0.4 -3.2 1.9 -2.2 0.3 -1.3 5.7 -3.3 -1.5 6.2 3.0 0.9 (3.2) (2.1)

Cultural and Recreation Goods -6.9 -4.5 3.4 4.6 3.8 2.3 -2.2 0.7 -3.7 0.5 -2.1 5.2 -4.3 -2.2 0.0 7.7 -0.9 5.6 -0.4 -1.3 -2.9 3.7 1.0 8.6 1.6 1.9 -9.5 -2.5 4.8 7.0 7.3

Other Goods -14.5 -8.8 7.2 0.5 11.4 39.3 -25.9 -5.4 -4.4 1.2 -0.3 6.3 -4.3 0.9 10.8 1.7 23.8 11.6 -13.7 2.6 0.1 2.1 4.5 4.2 -2.5 -5.4 11.1 -0.9 14.6 (12.0) 15.5

- o/w Clothing -9.2 -7.5 4.1 1.1 8.9 46.1 -26.3 -6.8 -3.3 -0.3 0.2 5.2 -3.0 -2.9 2.0 3.0 15.4 11.4 -6.2 -0.7 2.9 -3.0 3.8 4.2 -3.0 1.6 7.7 -10.4 19.1 (18.1) 29.5

TOTAL INDEX -4.9 -4.9 3.5 1.2 3.8 8.5 -9.7 -3.8 -0.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 -7.3 -1.7 4.5 2.8 7.9 2.5 -9.2 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 2.7 10.6 -7.7 0.0 5.5 -0.4 10.3 (5.8) 10.6

*) preliminary figure

Retail Sales Survey 5

 Table 4 Quarterly Real Sales Index Growth (year on year, %)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

DESCRIPTION
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Q II - Q I
Motor vehicles part and Accessories 2.0 -4.0 12.4 11.2 1.6 -9.0 -7.9 -5.4 0.5 17.7 23.9 26.0 11.9 7.5 1.4 -0.6 8.0 5.9 1.0 2.6 14.7 28.2
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 17.5 15.3 18.2 12.6 22.0 30.4 9.1 13.3 11.5 12.0 8.8 7.7 6.5 9.5 5.1 8.6 4.6 8.5 6.4 5.4 10.2 8.0
Automotive Fuels 15.8 13.4 4.1 5.6 -18.0 -18.5 -26.8 -28.6 -14.3 -21.2 -14.5 -11.9 -10.3 -2.1 0.7 4.8 3.0 10.5 15.0 16.5 8.8 0.8
Information & Communication Equipment 41.4 30.8 34.6 31.9 30.3 32.5 23.8 22.4 33.6 34.0 22.9 21.1 7.0 -1.3 -5.6 -9.4 -13.6 -12.2 -13.6 -13.6 -9.7 -8.0
Other Household Equipment 9.4 -10.0 -1.1 -12.8 0.4 12.0 -0.4 6.9 6.4 15.9 9.8 8.2 1.6 -5.7 -12.2 -11.2 -4.7 2.9 8.4 7.4 7.5 8.5
Cultural and Recreation Goods 10.8 -9.4 1.4 -8.3 -2.9 5.0 -11.4 -12.0 -2.7 3.6 8.3 11.6 4.4 6.0 2.2 -0.2 3.6 3.1 4.4 11.0 20.8 6.6
Other Goods 37.8 20.0 2.1 6.7 -2.6 1.6 -2.0 -7.3 -11.0 -6.8 -11.7 -4.8 -12.0 -2.5 -8.7 -5.1 13.7 21.5 35.1 47.9 44.9 33.2
- o/w Clothing 27.8 16.5 -3.0 8.5 -1.1 -5.8 -7.2 -13.1 -14.5 -9.7 -13.3 -4.5 -5.6 4.0 -2.6 0.2 7.7 5.1 20.5 27.2 34.3 24.8
TOTAL INDEX 19.9 13.1 15.3 10.9 15.5 22.0 7.1 9.9 11.5 13.7 9.4 9.5 4.8 4.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 8.8 7.8
*) preliminary figure

Table 5 Real Sales Index by City

2017 2018 2019 Changes

CITY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Apr May*
Jakarta 101.4 78.8 93.2 95.9 101.3 138.9 94.9 96.2 104.1 98.4 113.1 138.1 119.2 97.7 91.6 100.3 128.3 119.2 97.7 93.9 104.0 108.6 107.3 131.7 98.7 98.4 101.2 108.9 136.8 7.8 27.8

Bandung 313.0 301.0 304.9 307.2 317.6 321.2 302.3 292.6 291.6 290.7 294.6 310.5 281.4 270.3 269.8 271.4 269.2 275.9 263.6 263.1 249.0 232.0 229.3 274.3 242.9 240.5 242.4 244.8 257.7 2.4 12.9

Surabaya 131.9 136.7 141.4 143.8 143.2 139.6 144.1 149.3 151.6 158.4 165.1 166.1 169.2 181.9 204.2 212.4 218.4 230.7 223.9 228.1 231.4 237.3 246.2 252.0 255.8 282.9 307.9 280.8 328.3 (27.2) 47.5

Medan 193.1 191.5 189.9 193.5 198.0 213.4 212.4 209.7 206.6 203.9 200.4 208.1 204.5 207.0 200.9 201.3 214.5 228.1 220.5 220.4 215.5 207.7 207.4 222.0 212.8 208.8 205.9 199.1 205.6 (6.7) 6.4

Semarang ** 160.9 134.6 147.5 156.4 192.1 257.6 178.5 171.6 165.3 154.9 149.2 174.2 150.0 148.1 167.1 183.7 265.1 241.8 169.5 161.7 158.9 165.7 174.4 181.5 173.6 153.7 174.6 208.9 230.9 34.3 22.0

Banjarmasin 92.5 91.3 96.1 101.4 97.6 113.9 96.6 95.6 95.1 94.3 99.3 137.9 142.9 122.6 124.6 116.2 131.4 101.5 100.7 103.2 105.9 109.4 111.3 115.02 120.39 117.55 121.38 120.85 127.67 (0.5) 6.8

Makasar 126.0 123.6 124.7 125.7 127.5 129.1 128.2 129.3 130.4 131.4 131.5 132.8 132.9 133.8 130.6 123.7 133.4 138.4 131.9 133.8 156.2 168.0 163.1 183.4 179.0 159.7 168.4 175.5 187.0 7.1 11.5

Manado 146.1 138.9 147.3 150.5 154.8 166.8 149.6 150.3 150.3 154.0 152.5 171.1 126.8 119.2 120.1 124.7 144.0 144.9 153.8 120.6 131.1 132.9 144.4 178.0 159.7 157.4 160.9 169.0 175.9 8.1 6.8

Denpasar 161.0 153.4 158.8 167.0 159.8 149.3 177.6 180.9 147.9 151.6 153.9 142.7 139.6 136.0 140.6 141.3 143.0 141.5 140.1 140.1 141.9 142.0 141.9 145.0 141.9 135.5 137.1 135.3 135.5 (1.8) 0.3

TOTAL INDEX 207.2 197.1 204.0 206.5 214.3 232.4 209.9 202.1 201.2 202.3 206.7 219.5 203.5 200.0 209.1 215.0 232.0 237.8 216.0 214.3 210.8 208.1 213.7 236.3 218.1 218.2 230.2 229.3 252.9 (0.8) 23.5

*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Table 6 Real Sales Index Growth by City (year on year, %)

Changes
2017 2018 2019
CITY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Apr May*
Jakarta 33.8 21.0 37.7 33.8 31.7 32.4 3.2 36.0 54.9 42.4 41.5 48.9 17.6 24.1 -1.8 4.6 26.7 -14.2 2.9 -2.4 -0.1 10.5 -5.2 -4.6 -17.2 0.7 10.5 8.6 6.6 (1.9) (2.0)

Bandung 9.0 5.6 3.9 4.0 6.0 8.1 0.6 2.2 -1.5 0.8 -1.5 -2.9 -10.1 -10.2 -11.5 -11.7 -15.2 -14.1 -12.8 -10.1 -14.6 -20.2 -22.2 -11.6 -13.7 -11.0 -10.2 -9.8 -4.3 0.4 5.5

Surabaya -5.4 -0.8 0.9 3.9 2.2 -0.7 2.2 4.1 5.9 10.2 15.8 15.3 28.3 33.0 44.4 47.6 52.5 65.2 55.4 52.8 52.6 49.8 49.1 51.7 51.2 55.6 50.8 32.2 50.3 (18.6) 18.1

Medan -1.7 -4.4 0.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 -2.6 2.3 4.4 6.2 4.7 7.0 5.9 8.1 5.8 4.1 8.3 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.3 1.8 3.5 6.7 4.1 0.9 2.5 -1.1 -4.2 (3.6) (3.1)

Semarang ** 6.1 0.0 1.7 6.1 10.6 11.0 -23.5 10.1 6.9 1.0 -3.3 -1.9 -6.8 10.0 13.2 17.5 37.9 -6.1 -5.0 -5.8 -3.9 7.0 16.9 4.2 15.8 3.8 4.5 13.7 -12.9 9.2 (26.6)

Banjarmasin 28.0 27.6 43.2 52.0 38.3 46.9 31.5 48.5 50.1 43.3 65.5 62.5 54.4 34.3 29.6 14.7 34.6 -10.9 4.2 8.0 11.3 16.0 12.1 -16.6 -15.7 -4.1 -2.5 4.0 -2.8 6.5 (6.8)

Makasar 4.6 2.5 5.0 4.9 5.6 1.8 4.2 3.5 4.6 5.7 5.5 4.5 5.5 8.3 4.7 -1.6 4.6 7.3 2.9 3.5 19.7 27.8 24.1 38.1 34.7 19.4 28.9 41.8 40.2 12.9 (1.7)

Manado -23.5 -26.9 10.8 -2.8 -4.1 -1.6 -5.5 -4.8 -5.6 -3.3 -6.9 -16.8 -13.2 -14.2 -18.5 -17.2 -7.0 -13.1 2.8 -19.8 -12.8 -13.7 -5.4 4.0 26.0 32.1 34.0 35.6 22.1 1.6 (13.5)

Denpasar 2.9 -8.5 -2.3 -3.9 -2.6 -16.8 -6.1 2.0 -12.6 -11.0 -1.7 -12.0 -13.3 -11.3 -11.4 -15.4 -10.5 -5.2 -21.1 -22.6 -4.1 -6.4 -7.8 1.7 1.7 -0.4 -2.5 -4.3 -5.2 (1.8) (0.9)

TOTAL INDEX 6.3 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 6.3 -3.3 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.5 0.7 -1.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 8.3 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.8 2.9 3.4 7.7 7.2 9.1 10.1 6.7 9.0 (3.4) 2.4

*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Retail Sales Survey 6

 Table 7 Real Sales Index Growth by City (month to month, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

CITY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May* Apr May*
Jakarta 9.3 -22.3 18.3 2.9 5.6 37.2 -31.7 1.4 8.2 -5.5 15.0 22.1 -13.7 -18.0 -6.3 9.6 27.9 -7.1 -18.0 -3.9 10.8 4.4 -1.3 22.8 -25.1 -0.3 2.8 7.7 25.5 4.9 17.9

Bandung -2.1 -3.9 1.3 0.7 3.4 1.1 -5.9 -3.2 -0.4 -0.3 1.4 5.4 -9.4 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 2.5 -4.5 -0.2 -5.4 -6.8 -1.2 19.7 -11.5 -1.0 0.8 1.0 5.3 0.2 4.3

Surabaya -8.5 3.7 3.4 1.7 -0.5 -2.5 3.2 3.6 1.6 4.5 4.2 0.6 1.8 7.5 12.3 4.0 2.8 5.6 -3.0 1.9 1.4 2.5 3.8 2.3 1.5 10.6 8.8 -8.8 16.9 (17.7) 25.8

Medan -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 1.9 2.4 7.8 -0.4 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.7 3.8 -1.8 1.3 -3.0 0.2 6.6 6.3 -3.3 0.0 -2.2 -3.6 -0.1 7.0 -4.1 -1.9 -1.4 -3.3 3.2 (1.8) 6.5

Semarang ** -9.3 -16.3 9.6 6.0 22.9 34.1 -30.7 -3.9 -3.7 -6.3 -3.7 16.8 -13.9 -1.2 12.8 10.0 44.3 -8.8 -29.9 -4.6 -1.7 4.3 5.3 4.0 -4.3 -11.5 13.6 19.7 10.5 6.1 (9.2)

Banjarmasin 9.0 -1.3 5.3 5.4 -3.7 16.7 -15.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 5.3 38.9 3.6 -14.2 1.6 -6.7 13.0 -22.7 -0.8 2.5 2.6 3.3 1.8 3.3 4.7 -2.4 3.3 -0.4 5.6 (3.7) 6.1

Makasar -0.9 -1.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.2 -0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.7 -2.4 -5.3 7.8 3.8 -4.7 1.4 16.7 7.6 -2.9 12.4 -2.4 -10.7 5.4 4.2 6.6 (1.2) 2.3

Manado -28.9 -4.9 6.0 2.2 2.9 7.8 -10.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 -1.0 12.2 -25.9 -6.0 0.7 3.8 15.5 0.6 6.2 -21.6 8.7 1.4 8.6 23.3 -10.3 -1.4 2.2 5.1 4.0 2.9 (1.0)

Denpasar -0.6 -4.7 3.5 5.2 -4.4 -6.5 19.0 1.8 -18.2 2.5 1.5 -7.3 -2.2 -2.6 3.4 0.5 1.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 -2.2 -4.5 1.2 -1.3 0.2 (2.5) 1.5

TOTAL INDEX -4.9 -4.9 3.5 1.2 3.8 8.5 -9.7 -3.8 -0.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 -7.3 -1.7 4.5 2.8 7.9 2.5 -9.2 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 2.7 10.6 -7.7 0.0 5.5 -0.4 10.3 (5.8) 10.6

*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Table 8 Quarterly Real Sales Index Growth by City (year on year, %)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CITY
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Q II - Q I
Jakarta 1.5 -5.5 -15.6 -10.6 -14.4 -20.1 -22.1 -8.4 -9.4 11.3 -3.1 2.6 30.9 32.6 31.4 44.2 13.3 5.7 0.1 0.2 -2.0 7.6
Bandung 35.9 40.1 71.5 58.5 62.8 73.7 34.7 31.1 29.9 20.6 10.5 13.3 6.2 6.0 0.4 -1.2 -10.6 -13.7 -12.5 -18.0 -11.6 -7.0
Surabaya 21.7 12.5 7.2 4.3 -1.4 -2.5 -9.6 -4.8 -2.5 -2.6 3.7 3.2 -1.8 1.8 4.1 13.7 35.2 55.1 53.6 50.2 52.5 41.3
Medan 5.2 8.0 5.2 2.4 -1.3 -2.6 -9.0 -4.3 3.2 2.1 7.4 0.7 -1.8 4.3 1.3 6.0 6.6 6.4 4.4 4.0 2.5 -2.6
Semarang ** 22.6 5.2 9.5 -14.5 -9.1 3.9 -21.6 -16.3 -14.2 9.5 19.8 6.7 2.6 9.2 -2.2 -1.4 5.5 16.4 -4.9 9.4 8.0 0.4
Banjarmasin 8.1 7.3 9.8 3.9 -5.7 -3.2 -11.8 -19.4 -38.4 -38.1 -35.6 -21.2 32.9 45.7 43.4 57.1 39.4 12.8 7.9 3.8 -7.5 0.6
Makasar -9.6 -3.9 -4.2 -4.4 -3.5 -2.0 -3.6 -2.4 -1.2 0.2 3.0 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 3.4 8.7 30.0 27.7 41.0
Manado 10.3 15.8 14.1 -0.1 31.1 28.6 28.1 22.6 -18.3 -26.5 -30.2 -22.8 -13.2 -2.8 -5.3 -9.0 -15.3 -12.4 -9.9 -5.0 30.7 28.9
Denpasar -15.3 -37.6 -44.5 -17.0 -11.3 -8.9 5.5 -4.6 -20.0 11.9 15.3 -0.6 -2.6 -7.8 -5.6 -8.2 -12.0 -10.4 -15.9 -4.2 -0.4 -4.7
TOTAL INDEX 19.9 13.1 15.3 10.9 15.5 22.0 7.1 9.9 11.5 13.7 9.4 9.5 4.8 4.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 8.8 6.7
*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Table 9 Prices and Sales Expectations (Index)

2017 2018 2019

VARIABLES
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
General Price Expectations
- Next 3 months 134.1 140.4 149.7 146.7 138.3 133.3 135.5 145.0 148.0 154.9 152.8 158.2 155.1 164.0 169.0 153.7 152.0 135.8 140.2 144.3 159.3 163.9 160.1 156.9 154.3 153.9 174.6 160.5
- Next 6 months 132.3 131.3 130.3 130.0 135.8 149.3 158.1 162.7 157.3 163.1 173.2 167.9 161.5 149.2 150.8 163.1 165.8 170.9 177.8 177.3 173.3 172.4 161.5 168.0 157.9 155.3 152.8 157.1
Sales Expectations

- Next 3 months 119.3 134.8 154.3 141.5 137.7 123.1 127.9 141.0 153.1 149.1 134.6 118.7 142.2 153.7 161.2 140.0 140.2 128.4 140.4 139.7 165.9 156.0 143.3 141.3 140.7 155.1 154.9 143.0
- Next 6 months 147.1 144.6 137.1 131.7 129.7 141.3 153.5 141.4 136.0 135.7 151.0 149.0 140.3 147.6 141.1 146.2 140.7 160.3 161.6 148.3 143.8 141.7 149.3 148.8 136.3 151.3 149.9 153.7

Retail Sales Survey 7

 METHODOLOGY The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP
trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in
September 1999 and in January 2015 the survey involved 700 retailers as respondents using purposive
sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar,
Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where
commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table, while city weights based on the share of
household consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in
Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI
(Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in 2009. The real index presented with
2010=100 as the base year (previously 2000=100). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by
using the balanced score method (net balance + 100) using city weights according to the Cost of Living
Survey (SBH).
Retail Sales Survey 8