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The PV Basics

Simon Philipps
Gaëtan Masson
Anders Sørensen
Index www.innoenergy.com

Basic of PV technology
Nature of sunlight and the PV effect
Elements of a PV panel and of PV installations
PV plant basic calculations (Wp-Wh): production profiles, orientations, etc…
PV markets evolution
PV market development forecasts
PV impact
PV costs
BIPV
Basic of PV technology www.innoenergy.com

Light from the sun falls on a PV panel. It


is absorbed and charge carriers are Sun
separated. These can be extracted at a
certain voltage level from the solar panel
and flow through an external circuit. The
energy can be used, for example in a light
bulb.
Let us now look in detail into the
different processes. Current

-
+

Voltage
Picture of a Picture of a
PV Panel Light Bulb

-
+
Basic of PV technology www.innoenergy.com

One technology – 2 categories of Applications


Basic of PV technology www.innoenergy.com

A scalable technology for all applications sizes


Can be connected to the grid (99%) or off-grid (1%)
System size starts at 40W (Solar Home Systems)
Residential (5kW), commercial 50kW), industrial systems (500kW)
Solar Farms: from 1 MW to the largest (2015): 579 MW (USA)
Building Integrated (BIPV)
Nature of sunlight www.innoenergy.com

The sun continuously delivers energy through radiation to Earth.


The energy is delivered over a wide spectral range. Here the spectrum outside
the atmosphere of the Earth is shown. This reference spectrum - calles AM0 - is for
example relevant for solar cells on satellites
When the sunlight travels through the atmosphere of the Earth parts get
absorbed or scattered, e.g. by oxygen or water vapor, resulting in absorption gaps
in the terrestrial reference spectrum AM1.5 g.
Such reference spectra are important as the performance and the efficiency of
solar cells and modules is rated and compared under certain reference spectra
depending on the field of application.
The spectral distribution of the incoming light is also essential for solar cell
development as the materials used in a solar cell can only absorb parts of the
spectral range.
Nature of sunlight www.innoenergy.com

Extraterrestrial Solar Spectrum (AM0)


Spectral Irradiance [W/(m²µm)] 2000 Terrestrial Solar Spectrum (AM1.5g)

1500

1000

500

0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Wavelength [nm]
The PV effect www.innoenergy.com

Basis for Photovoltaic is the photoelectric effect.


Light particles (photons) can excite charge carriers in a material. The photon’s
energy is transferred to the charge carrier.
This effect is usually visualized in an energy band diagramm, which has a valence
band with non-excited electrons and a conduction band for excited electrons.
Standard solar cells consist of semiconducting materials. These have an energy gap
between valence band and conduction band. If a photon is absorbed by an
electron and has sufficient energy the electron is moved from the valence band to
the conduction band and becomes “free”.
If the photon has more energy than necessary, the electron is moved higher in
the conduction band, but looses the access energy quickly. Hence not all energy of
high energy light can be used. This basic loss mechanism is called thermalisation
loss.
However, if the photon energy is too low it cannot excite electrons and is
transmitted through the solar cell. This loss mechanism is calls transmission loss.
The PV effect www.innoenergy.com

In the design of a solar cell it is hence very important to optimize the solar cell
according to the wavelength distribution of the incoming light in order to balance
transmission and thermalisation losses, which remain however partly inevitable.
Exited electrons do not remain in the conduction band forever. They fall back into
the valence band (show recombination process). However, the energy gap hinders
excited electrons from returning to the valence band immediately. This enables
the electrons to be transferred to an external circuit to use their energy.
The PV effect www.innoenergy.com

In the design of a solar cell it is hence


very important to optimize the solar cell
according to the wavelength distribution
of the incoming light in order to balance Conduction band
transmission and thermalisation losses, Energy
which remain however partly inevitable. -
Empty

Exited electrons do not remain in the - -


conduction band forever. They fall back -

into the valence band. However, the


Bandgap
energy gap hinders excited electrons from -

returning to the valence band


immediately. This enables the electrons
to be transferred to an external circuit to
use their energy. + + + +

+ Filled with electrons

Valence band
Elements of a PV panel and of PV installations www.innoenergy.com

The standard elements of a PV installation are exemplified here for a rooftop


system. Field installations have similar elements. A standard PV installation
consists of a number of photovoltaic modules. Under sunlight these produce
electrical current, which flows into an inverter. This element transforms the direct
current from the PV panels into alternate current. The produced energy is usually
measured with an electrical meter and is then either directly used in electrical
appliances or is fed into the grid.
In off-grid systems the current of the PV modules flows into a charge controller
and is then either used to load batteries or is fed into an inverter.
Elements of a PV panel and of PV installations www.innoenergy.com

Source: EPIA, Solar Generation 6, 2011


PV plant basic calculations (Wp - Wh) www.innoenergy.com

PV modules are rated with a value called nominal power or peak capacity (Wp).
This is the power that a panel would produce under a standardized irradiance of
1000 W/m2 and a temperature of 25° C. However, the value of interest for a PV
power plant is usually the produced energy (in WattHours) in a certain time
period. To come to this value two aspects have to be taken into account : 1. The
solar irradiance at the specific site over the investigated time period and 2.
Additional losses within the PV power plant.
The solar irradiance at a specific site obviously changes over the course of a day
and over the year due to the movement of the sun. And also the weather plays an
important role for the irradiance. And also the plant layout has an important
influence on how much of the irradiance reaches the PV panels. In particular the
orientation of the panels with respect to the inclination and the geographical
direction is essential. Depending on the site shading, e.g. through trees can have a
significant impact.
PV plant basic calculations (Wp - Wh) www.innoenergy.com

The losses in a PV power plant are usually summarized in a value called


performance ratio, which is the ratio between the theoretically maximal yield and
the real yield. It for example accounts for losses from inverters, cables,
temperature, shading, dust, snow etc.
Hence for example the total energy production of a PV power plant for a year can
be calculated with the following formula:
Energy produced [kWh] = Total energy irradiated on panels over a year [kwh/ (m2 a)] *
Total Solar Panel Area [m2] * Panel efficiency [%] * Performance Ratio [%]
Another figure that is used occasionally to evaluate the actual produced amount
of energy from an electricity generation plant are the full load hours. This
calculated value describe the number of hours for which the generators would
have to run at full capacity to produce the energy it actually produced. Usually the
reference is a full year, with its 8760 hours. This figure, which originates from
dispatchable fossil and nuclear power plants, can also be calculated for a PV power
plant by dividing the annual energy yield [in kWh] by the nominal power of the
plant [in kW]. Typical values range from 900 full load hours in Germany up to 1500
full load hours in Southern Spain.
PV Markets Evolution www.innoenergy.com

More than 40 countries in the world (2015)


More than 8% of electricity demand in Italy
More than 200 Gw installed (2015)
Developing on all continents: Africa, America, Asia, Europe, Middle-East, Oceania
and even Antarctica.
PV Markets Evolution www.innoenergy.com

Global PV Market evolution


PV Markets Evolution www.innoenergy.com

Global PV Market evolution in key dates:


2004: the market reach 1 GW for the first time, led by Germany
2008: the feed-in tariff is Spain creates a major boom and the market reaches more than
6.5 GW. The same year, Spain phases it out.
2010: Germany installs 7.4 GW and several EU markets develop
2011: Italy installs 9.3 GW, Germany 7.5 GW. Europe alone reaches 23 GW
2012: The decline of Europe (17 GW) is partially compensated by the growth outside
Europe. First market decline in a context of prices war.
2013: China becomes the first market with 10.9 GW, and Asia leads to reach 37 GW.
2014: China, Japan and the USA are the top three leaders in a slightly growing market at
40 GW.
PV Markets Evolution www.innoenergy.com

Evolution of cumulative capacity:

The 200 GW mark has been reached in 2015.


PV Markets Evolution www.innoenergy.com

Top 10 countries (installations and total capacity) at the end of 2014:


PV Market development forecasts www.innoenergy.com

Can you figure out why such a wide range of forecasts in the coming years?
Policies are by definition hard to predict and PV depends on policy support, not always
financial.
PV Market development forecasts www.innoenergy.com

Asia should continue to dominate the PV market, with China, Japan leading. But
also Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and more.
India has announced a 100 GW PV development plan for 2022, with 60 GW of
centralized installations and 40 GW distributed.
North America is already developing (USA, Canada) and Latin America is just
starting its development (Chile, Honduras, Mexico, and more)
The Middle East has announced extremely competitive bids (5.85 USD/kWh in
Dubai for instance).
The development in Africa is still weak but promissing (South Africa, Egypt and
more)
Europe remains a question mark, despite more than 90 GW installed.
PV Market development forecasts www.innoenergy.com

PV Market Dynamics


Markets have initially developed thanks for financial support schemes with a predictable
cash flow (Feed-in Tariffs for instance): the move to self-consumption and market-based
remuneration has introduced variability.
 Variable remuneration implies more uncertainties and slower market development.
Market development depends on:
▫ Local political support (regulations, willingness to promote PV development…).
▫ General awareness of investors.
▫ Competitiveness of PV solutions under the regulatory frameworks (including reduced soft costs and
administrative barriers).
▫ Regulatory stability.
PV Impact www.innoenergy.com

PV impact on the electricity demand


The global PV penetration reached 1% in 2014 for the first time, with major differences
from one country to another.
PV Impact www.innoenergy.com

The contribution to the economy:


The global Turnover of the PV industry reached 85 Billion USD in 2014, without the
maintenance.
100 Billion USD should be reached in 2015.
PV Impact www.innoenergy.com

IEA’s high REN scenario: 16% in 2050:


PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

The Cost of Electricity from a PV System requires to use a standardized


calculation method in order to be compared with conventional power sources.
This method is called LCOE for Levelized Cost of Electricity and represented the
Net Present Value of all costs incured during the system lifetime.
Without fuel costs, a PV system’s cost will be based on CAPEX and OPEX costs.
Since the « fuel » of PV is the Sun, the amount of solar radiation will influence
significantly the yield and therefore the production cost.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

LCOE – Levelized Cost of Electricity


Standard way of calculating the cost of electricity from any source.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

LCOE – PV specifics
PV has no fuel-costs.
CAPEX is concentrated during the very first
year.
OPEX comprises Operation, Maintenance
and all other expenses.
Lifetime for most projects ranges between
20 and 30 years.
Cost of capital depends on the type of PV
installation and the PV system owner.
The yield depends on the location and the
orientation.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

PV LCOE – Ranges in 2015 (all segments)


The range depends on:
▫ Irradiation
▫ System size
▫ Local specifics and especially the level of incentives
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

PV (large-scale) LCOE compared to other electricity sources – EUR 2013


Indicative table showing how low-cost PV for ground-mounted applications compares to
other sources of electricity (new installations).
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

CAPEX Description Inverter 110


A PV system is composed of several Mounting structure 75
technical components
Installation work 50
The PV modules
DC cables 50
The PV inverter(s) Grid connection 60
The Balance of Systems (mounting structure, Infrastructure 40
cabling, transformers…)
Planning & docum. 35
The components depend on the kind of PV Transformer 20
system, its size, whether it is installed on a Example of BoS costs for a 1 MW ground mounted PV system
roof, integrated or ground-mounted, with or in continentalSwitch
Europe.gear
2015. in EUR/MWp5
without trackers etc. Source: EU PV Total BoS Platform 445
Technology
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

CAPEX - Cost Breakdown of A PV System

Typical Residential 5 kW System Typical 3 MW Ground-Mounted System


1,2

120

1
100

0,8 80

60
0,6

40

0,4
20

0,2
0

Modules
0
Inverters

All other Balance of Systems

Mounting
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

CAPEX Evolution (modules and residential PV systems):

Prices might differ according to the country.


Prices below 1,5 EUR/Wp for residential systems are common in 2015.
Prices below 0,9 EUR/Wp for ground-mounted systems are common in 2015.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

Future CAPEX Evolution for Large-Scale PV

Source EU PV technology Platform.


Based on the Learning Curve for PV Modules and Inverters.
Based on current system prices for large-scale (5 MW) PV system in Europe.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

OPEX – Costs of Operation and Maintenance

Costs of Operation and Maintenance.


They vary according to the country, segment and kind of contract.
Source: EU PV Technology Platform 2015.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

Other Costs Drivers - LCOE sensitivity

Source: European PV technology Platform 2015.


PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

Record Low PPAs for PV (IEA 2014)

PPAs granted to PV systems in 2014 and 2015 have been extremely low.
Lowest: 5,85 USD/kWh in Dubai for a 200 MW plant.
Meanwhile these are record-low numbers and a range exists.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com

Possible Evolution of LCOEs


BIPV www.innoenergy.com

Introduction to BIPV
BIPV are PV components that replace the look and/or function of a primary building
material, and are provided as a single integrated unit.
Reasons for BIPV
Standard PV have no additional functionality besides energy production
BIPV provides additional functionality such as:
▫ Weather proofing
▫ Aestehiteical integration
▫ Shadowing / sun protection
▫ Thermal insulation
▫ Noise protection
▫ Safety
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

The stronger BIPV business case


PV cases can be established along two dimensions. One involves an objective
measurement of ROI, the other is subjective and has to do with issues of taste, ideology
and aesthetics.
True BIPV (not just flush-mounted BIPV panels) makes possible business cases that would
not be possible when considering conventional PV.
All this means that PV is in search of a new business case that can shore up the subjective
side of the current PV case against the problems suggested above. We believe that BIPV can
do this through the medium of aesthetics. By disguising PV as building materials, BIPV adds
to the PV case by (1) potentially eliminating ugly rack-based PV systems that actually put off
potential users from deploying PV, (2) essentially adding new kinds of building products to
the mix that may be considered to have their own special kinds of aesthetics; PV roofing
tiles may actually look different to regular tiles or may be considered to have different
aesthetics precisely because they included PV.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

In any case, what BIPV seems to be able to add to the subjective component of the PV
case is a way to extend the addressable market for PV beyond the ideological market that it
now mainly addresses. This is, in our opinion, a potentially large extension of the
addressable market for PV and we believe this will be especially needed as the
"environmentalist market" is challenged. In addition, and this is very important, aesthetics
create an opportunity for BIPV product makers to differentiate themselves in the market in
a manner that is not available to manufacturers of regular PV panels.
Multiple Business cases
We are not talking about a single business case but rather multiple business cases, since
different kinds of BIPV products and different kinds of BIPV consumers must be addressed
with somewhat different kinds of business case. The business case differs depending on
where one is in the value chain. Fix a building materials supplier in contrast to the firm
making the system.
BIPV is more aligned with building industry than energy industry and all parts of its supply
chain.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

BIPV presents an opportunity to add features and value that can increase the marketability
of a building built on spec. The ability of a construction firm to include BIPV features may
give them an edge over other construction firms…
The case for BIPV is strengthened by the fact that it will open up existing building and
electrical product supply chains to PV largely than at present. But while this means more
competition for the dealers/integrators that have been at the center of the PV business
since its inception in the 1970s, it also seems likely that their business will be strengthened
in other ways:
▫ BIPV providers to have the opportunity to sell through building and electrical product marketing
channels as well as through PV marketing channels. The point here is that because BIPV products are
both building products and PV products they can be sold through more traditional building product
supply outlets. This already happens to some degree (conventional PV products are sold in Home
Depot, for example), but we believe once true BIPV products are established, it will be much easier
to make the case for selling PV through building-industry supply chains.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

▫ While this means traditional PV retailers and wholesalers will have more competition, we also think it
will strengthen the businesses of the local PV dealers and installers if played right. BIPV installations
are inherently more complex than conventional PV installations and are less easy for residential and
small businesses to install themselves. So local installers can expect to expand their installation
businesses as the result of BIPV. It also means that BIPV product makers may become more reliant on
local dealer/installers to carry through their strategies. However, small local PV firms are likely to
require substantial training before they could successful install what are, in effect, roofs and siding.
▫ The existing wholesale infrastructure for PV is likely to take on BIPV products along with existing
conventional PV products. Indeed, NanoMarkets believes that business plans of wholesalers will be
enhanced somewhat by these high value-added products and, as a result, BIPV product makers can
expect wholesalers to be open to taking BIPV products under their wing.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

BIPV business options

Type of PV Main Markets Advantages Issues


Buildings looking for easy Primarily the reason for the Can be expensive compared
Flush-mounted panels way to improved aesthetics. existence of flush-mounted with traditional PV, although
First generation BIPV panels is aesthetics. costs have come down.
Typically associated with
Non-window glass in larger Suitable for wall space in tall
large projects. So lumpy
Glass commercial and prestige buildings where roof space
market, but high value
residential buildings is limited.
individual projects.
Designed to look better than
conventional panels. They
Do not substitute for –or
offer value propositions –
Laminates that are applied produce any savings from-
Flexible BIPV laminates and opportunities- that
to building surfaces. conventional building
derive from their light weight,
materials.
ease of installation, and
versatility.
Products like flexible roofing Many technical challenges
Fully-integrated flexible Good and controllable
shingles and PV-integrated including actually installing
BIPV products aesthetics and the ability to
metal roofing roofing and siding.
allocate costs between
Sometime have relatively
Probably some of the categories of PV power
low efficiencies and it also
Rigid fully-integrated BIPV earliest markets for fully- generation and architecture
difficult to develop viable
integrated BIPV with considerable discretion.
commercial products.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

Looking at BIPV from a general perspective this is some of the Promises and Concerns of
BIPV technology:

BIPV is about building (by definition), means that there will be important variations from
one place to another, that also needs to be taken into consideration:
▫ BIPV will surely go over strongest where PV is already strong and there is no doubt where that is. We
believe also that future expansion in PV markets is likely to occur where governments remain friendly
to PV and where energy costs are high.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com

▫ The importance and nature of building aesthetics varies considerably from nation to nation, so BIPV
may be deployed in one place in a way that reflects local tastes and somewhat differently in another
place to reflect aesthetic tastes there. Beyond this, however, BIPV business cases can best be made
where aesthetics is a particularly important factor in the construction industry as a whole. This would
include affluent communities, of course, but also (at an international level) countries where prestige
buildings of various kinds are under construction This could either be prestige buildings or buildings
using high quality and standards of building materials.
▫ Research suggests that regions, countries, states and towns vary considerably in their willingness to
adopt novel building approaches, such as BIPV. For example, the willingness of banks to fund "green
building" projects varies considerably from place to place.
To sum up:
▫ Choosing between the options available depends on the individual project.
Costs www.innoenergy.com

New PV ROI calculation


ROI and PV today
▫ Direct subsidies of capital expenditures and feed-in-tarifs for PV makes for a more complex – and
somewhat less persuasive business case that vary with geography. The good thing is that this subsidy
regime has been largely responsible for expanding the market from hardcore ideological enthusiasts
to the environmentally concerned. ROI argument has limits:
• Subsidies are primarily determined by government policy and along with electricity prices a major component of
ROI calculations – well out of control of the panel maker.
• Hard to differentiate. Very little on lifetimes, efficiency, reliability.
▫ BIPV enables a completely different cost model for PV that is flexible enough to allow market
differentiation in its own right
▫ The basic point here is that with BIPV—and only with BIPV—the costs can be allocated between the
PV functionality and the building material and this allocation process can be largely under the control
of the BIPV product maker, since product design will determine how much of the product is PV panel
and how much cladding or roofing or whatever.
▫ In addition, of course, the advent of BIPV completely changes the ROI equation itself, since some of
the costs must/can be allocated to building materials. Depending on how this is done this can be
seen as radically reducing the cost of the PV and making the ROI case for PV much more of a sure
thing.
Costs www.innoenergy.com

▫ Subjective aspect of PV case:


• Adds aesthetics into the mix and broadens the market even further by eliminating the negative aesthetics
associated with regular BIPV and creating a "new aesthetics based on PV".
▫ Objective / ROI aspect of PV case:
• Fundamentally, changes the PV market ROI argument and cost model, because a substantial amount of the cost of
the panel can be allocated as a building material.

Value of BIPV
▫ Improved aesthetics improves uptake and acceptance of PV by local authority / ordinances and
public. Thereby expanding a new market.
▫ Improved ROI due to aesthetics and replacing building material.
Costs www.innoenergy.com

Value of BIPV
1. Improved aesthetics improves uptake and acceptance of PV by local authority /
ordinances and public. Thereby expanding a new market.
2. Improved ROI due to aesthetics and replacing building material.
Costs www.innoenergy.com

A summary of the analysis of PV and BIPV systems prices is shown in Figure ES-1. The
listed “effective prices” account for cost offsets due to an assumption that the BIPV cases
replace traditional building materials; in this example, they replace asphalt shingles. Our
findings suggest that BIPV has the potential to achieve system prices that are about 10%
lower than rack-mounted PV system prices (i.e., the BIPV Derivative Case).The bulk of the
BIPV cases’ potential savings stem from eliminating the cost of module-mounting
hardware—which rack-mounted PV systems need but BIPV systems do not—and from
offsetting the cost of traditional building materials. BIPV labor savings result from the
elimination of mounting hardware and our assumption of lower-cost roofing contractors in
place of electricians. Some installation labor costs increase, however, due to the increased
time that is required to install a greater number of smaller BIPV modules for a given area
(i.e., more total electrical interconnections and wiring). Module costs and efficiencies are
key factors that contribute to overall system prices across all of the cases, and we assume
that the BIPV cases have lower efficiencies.
Costs www.innoenergy.com

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