Beruflich Dokumente
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Simon Philipps
Gaëtan Masson
Anders Sørensen
Index www.innoenergy.com
Basic of PV technology
Nature of sunlight and the PV effect
Elements of a PV panel and of PV installations
PV plant basic calculations (Wp-Wh): production profiles, orientations, etc…
PV markets evolution
PV market development forecasts
PV impact
PV costs
BIPV
Basic of PV technology www.innoenergy.com
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Voltage
Picture of a Picture of a
PV Panel Light Bulb
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Basic of PV technology www.innoenergy.com
1500
1000
500
0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Wavelength [nm]
The PV effect www.innoenergy.com
In the design of a solar cell it is hence very important to optimize the solar cell
according to the wavelength distribution of the incoming light in order to balance
transmission and thermalisation losses, which remain however partly inevitable.
Exited electrons do not remain in the conduction band forever. They fall back into
the valence band (show recombination process). However, the energy gap hinders
excited electrons from returning to the valence band immediately. This enables
the electrons to be transferred to an external circuit to use their energy.
The PV effect www.innoenergy.com
Valence band
Elements of a PV panel and of PV installations www.innoenergy.com
PV modules are rated with a value called nominal power or peak capacity (Wp).
This is the power that a panel would produce under a standardized irradiance of
1000 W/m2 and a temperature of 25° C. However, the value of interest for a PV
power plant is usually the produced energy (in WattHours) in a certain time
period. To come to this value two aspects have to be taken into account : 1. The
solar irradiance at the specific site over the investigated time period and 2.
Additional losses within the PV power plant.
The solar irradiance at a specific site obviously changes over the course of a day
and over the year due to the movement of the sun. And also the weather plays an
important role for the irradiance. And also the plant layout has an important
influence on how much of the irradiance reaches the PV panels. In particular the
orientation of the panels with respect to the inclination and the geographical
direction is essential. Depending on the site shading, e.g. through trees can have a
significant impact.
PV plant basic calculations (Wp - Wh) www.innoenergy.com
Can you figure out why such a wide range of forecasts in the coming years?
Policies are by definition hard to predict and PV depends on policy support, not always
financial.
PV Market development forecasts www.innoenergy.com
Asia should continue to dominate the PV market, with China, Japan leading. But
also Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and more.
India has announced a 100 GW PV development plan for 2022, with 60 GW of
centralized installations and 40 GW distributed.
North America is already developing (USA, Canada) and Latin America is just
starting its development (Chile, Honduras, Mexico, and more)
The Middle East has announced extremely competitive bids (5.85 USD/kWh in
Dubai for instance).
The development in Africa is still weak but promissing (South Africa, Egypt and
more)
Europe remains a question mark, despite more than 90 GW installed.
PV Market development forecasts www.innoenergy.com
LCOE – PV specifics
PV has no fuel-costs.
CAPEX is concentrated during the very first
year.
OPEX comprises Operation, Maintenance
and all other expenses.
Lifetime for most projects ranges between
20 and 30 years.
Cost of capital depends on the type of PV
installation and the PV system owner.
The yield depends on the location and the
orientation.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com
120
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100
0,8 80
60
0,6
40
0,4
20
0,2
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Modules
0
Inverters
Mounting
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com
PPAs granted to PV systems in 2014 and 2015 have been extremely low.
Lowest: 5,85 USD/kWh in Dubai for a 200 MW plant.
Meanwhile these are record-low numbers and a range exists.
PV Costs www.innoenergy.com
Introduction to BIPV
BIPV are PV components that replace the look and/or function of a primary building
material, and are provided as a single integrated unit.
Reasons for BIPV
Standard PV have no additional functionality besides energy production
BIPV provides additional functionality such as:
▫ Weather proofing
▫ Aestehiteical integration
▫ Shadowing / sun protection
▫ Thermal insulation
▫ Noise protection
▫ Safety
BIPV www.innoenergy.com
In any case, what BIPV seems to be able to add to the subjective component of the PV
case is a way to extend the addressable market for PV beyond the ideological market that it
now mainly addresses. This is, in our opinion, a potentially large extension of the
addressable market for PV and we believe this will be especially needed as the
"environmentalist market" is challenged. In addition, and this is very important, aesthetics
create an opportunity for BIPV product makers to differentiate themselves in the market in
a manner that is not available to manufacturers of regular PV panels.
Multiple Business cases
We are not talking about a single business case but rather multiple business cases, since
different kinds of BIPV products and different kinds of BIPV consumers must be addressed
with somewhat different kinds of business case. The business case differs depending on
where one is in the value chain. Fix a building materials supplier in contrast to the firm
making the system.
BIPV is more aligned with building industry than energy industry and all parts of its supply
chain.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com
BIPV presents an opportunity to add features and value that can increase the marketability
of a building built on spec. The ability of a construction firm to include BIPV features may
give them an edge over other construction firms…
The case for BIPV is strengthened by the fact that it will open up existing building and
electrical product supply chains to PV largely than at present. But while this means more
competition for the dealers/integrators that have been at the center of the PV business
since its inception in the 1970s, it also seems likely that their business will be strengthened
in other ways:
▫ BIPV providers to have the opportunity to sell through building and electrical product marketing
channels as well as through PV marketing channels. The point here is that because BIPV products are
both building products and PV products they can be sold through more traditional building product
supply outlets. This already happens to some degree (conventional PV products are sold in Home
Depot, for example), but we believe once true BIPV products are established, it will be much easier
to make the case for selling PV through building-industry supply chains.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com
▫ While this means traditional PV retailers and wholesalers will have more competition, we also think it
will strengthen the businesses of the local PV dealers and installers if played right. BIPV installations
are inherently more complex than conventional PV installations and are less easy for residential and
small businesses to install themselves. So local installers can expect to expand their installation
businesses as the result of BIPV. It also means that BIPV product makers may become more reliant on
local dealer/installers to carry through their strategies. However, small local PV firms are likely to
require substantial training before they could successful install what are, in effect, roofs and siding.
▫ The existing wholesale infrastructure for PV is likely to take on BIPV products along with existing
conventional PV products. Indeed, NanoMarkets believes that business plans of wholesalers will be
enhanced somewhat by these high value-added products and, as a result, BIPV product makers can
expect wholesalers to be open to taking BIPV products under their wing.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com
Looking at BIPV from a general perspective this is some of the Promises and Concerns of
BIPV technology:
BIPV is about building (by definition), means that there will be important variations from
one place to another, that also needs to be taken into consideration:
▫ BIPV will surely go over strongest where PV is already strong and there is no doubt where that is. We
believe also that future expansion in PV markets is likely to occur where governments remain friendly
to PV and where energy costs are high.
BIPV www.innoenergy.com
▫ The importance and nature of building aesthetics varies considerably from nation to nation, so BIPV
may be deployed in one place in a way that reflects local tastes and somewhat differently in another
place to reflect aesthetic tastes there. Beyond this, however, BIPV business cases can best be made
where aesthetics is a particularly important factor in the construction industry as a whole. This would
include affluent communities, of course, but also (at an international level) countries where prestige
buildings of various kinds are under construction This could either be prestige buildings or buildings
using high quality and standards of building materials.
▫ Research suggests that regions, countries, states and towns vary considerably in their willingness to
adopt novel building approaches, such as BIPV. For example, the willingness of banks to fund "green
building" projects varies considerably from place to place.
To sum up:
▫ Choosing between the options available depends on the individual project.
Costs www.innoenergy.com
Value of BIPV
▫ Improved aesthetics improves uptake and acceptance of PV by local authority / ordinances and
public. Thereby expanding a new market.
▫ Improved ROI due to aesthetics and replacing building material.
Costs www.innoenergy.com
Value of BIPV
1. Improved aesthetics improves uptake and acceptance of PV by local authority /
ordinances and public. Thereby expanding a new market.
2. Improved ROI due to aesthetics and replacing building material.
Costs www.innoenergy.com
A summary of the analysis of PV and BIPV systems prices is shown in Figure ES-1. The
listed “effective prices” account for cost offsets due to an assumption that the BIPV cases
replace traditional building materials; in this example, they replace asphalt shingles. Our
findings suggest that BIPV has the potential to achieve system prices that are about 10%
lower than rack-mounted PV system prices (i.e., the BIPV Derivative Case).The bulk of the
BIPV cases’ potential savings stem from eliminating the cost of module-mounting
hardware—which rack-mounted PV systems need but BIPV systems do not—and from
offsetting the cost of traditional building materials. BIPV labor savings result from the
elimination of mounting hardware and our assumption of lower-cost roofing contractors in
place of electricians. Some installation labor costs increase, however, due to the increased
time that is required to install a greater number of smaller BIPV modules for a given area
(i.e., more total electrical interconnections and wiring). Module costs and efficiencies are
key factors that contribute to overall system prices across all of the cases, and we assume
that the BIPV cases have lower efficiencies.
Costs www.innoenergy.com