2016 IEEE Radar Conference (RadarConf)

METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR ANALYZING BALLISTIC TRAJECTORIES

Rich Pedersen and Stanley Jordan Viss, Lockheed Martin

This paper describes ballistic trajectory analysis, and more particularly a method and system for
comparing ballistic trajectories. A ballistic trajectory represents the motion of an object where the only
substantive force acting on the object is the earth’s gravity. An object is typically placed in such a
trajectory through the use of one or more booster rockets that throw the object away from the earth and its
atmosphere and into a desired trajectory intended to cause the object to reach a given destination. The
booster rockets provide the initial force acting on the object, but once they burn out the object is only
acted upon by gravity and it assumes its ballistic trajectory. Such a trajectory is elliptical in shape,
occurring fully within a geometric plane that passes through the earth’s center. If the ellipse is of
sufficient size, the object will continue to orbit the earth in that trajectory indefinitely. If, as is the case
with ballistic missiles, the orbit is not sufficiently large for the object to freely orbit the earth, it will
collide with the earth at some point in the orbit, but it may do so at a great distance from where it is
launched, and it can collide with the earth at enormous speed.
Kepler made the first accurate descriptions of such trajectories [1], the physics of which were then
explained by Newton [2]. From their work, it is possible to identify six invariants of ballistic trajectories
[3] that may be used to uniquely characterize a given trajectory, with these invariants being constant as
long as gravity is the only force acting on the object. Using such a characterization, it is possible to
analyze these trajectories in meaningful ways, such as determining whether different observers far
removed from one another are observing the same object, or more generally in rapidly determining which
objects will be in a given field of view of different observers.
When tracking objects exhibiting ballistic motion, it is frequently of interest to compare one object’s
motion to that of another object, or to compare one or more such trajectories to a set of criteria used to
identify objects meeting the criteria. The analysis of trajectories is, in general, complicated by the
dynamic nature of their trajectories. The comparison of one ballistic trajectory to another, or the
comparison of multiple objects to a set of criteria, is particularly problematic since the motion of these
objects is non-linear. These non-linearities include variations in speed and course. While it is possible to
use the invariants to calculate these parameters for any given position or time, which calculations are used
to good effect for much important analysis of such trajectories, the process is cumbersome. For example,
for many analyses of potential interest, such calculations must be performed iteratively to achieve the
desired result [4, 5], which becomes particularly problematic to execute in real-time when many ballistic
objects must be analyzed simultaneously. The use of the invariants can simplify the comparison analysis
by transforming the analysis in a way that changes it from a dynamic to a static analysis, as shown.
In addition, because of the dynamic nature of the trajectories, it is common practice to individually
estimate each object’s position at some given time, and then compare their estimated positions to
determine whether they satisfy the criteria. However, individually estimating and comparing trajectories
is inefficient. For example, under the common practice, the work of comparing a given object to all other
objects is proportional to the number of objects being observed. If a comparison is required of all objects
to all other objects, the comparison effort grows exponentially with the number of objects.
The method described in [6] for analyzing ballistic trajectories is proposed herein as allowing for the
rapid analysis at run-time of objects with ballistic trajectories using the invariants of their orbits. In
computer science terms, the method uses a reference graph data structure and a query graph data

© 2016 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

978-1-5090-0863-6/16/$31.00 ©2016 IEEE

structure, which allow for rapid comparison of vehicular objects whose ballistic trajectory invariants are
used to instantiate references to the objects into the reference graph, with the novelty that the two graphs
are woven together at design-time for the purpose of providing optimal processing performance at run-
time. The reference graph may be developed using invariants for known ballistic trajectories from
multiple sensor types such as radar, and the query graph may be developed to provide connections to the
reference graph for anticipated queries. Among other possible uses, this approach may rapidly and
accurately identify and characterize objects with a ballistic trajectory, such as missiles carrying weapons
of mass destruction. With this rapid identification and characterization information, an engagement may
be efficiently commenced for the purpose of destroying such a weapon before it causes significant harm.

This algorithm consists of a design-time pre-processing phase, and a run-time execution phase. The pre-
processing phase consists of two operations: 1) the creation of a mapping of the expected range of
invariants into a reference graph data structure that will contain runtime references to individual objects;
and 2) the creation of a query graph data structure interconnected with the reference graph created in the
previous operation that provides the necessary paths to support the analyses to be performed on the
trajectories. The run-time phase also consists of two operations: 1) determining the object’s invariants
from its state vector ሺ‫ݎ‬ǡ ‫ݒ‬ሻ and using the invariants to map the object into the reference graph; and 2) as
objects are to be compared to a set of criteria, using the query graph to locate the set of objects satisfying
the criteria.

The algorithm can be used with a simplified Earth model where the Earth is considered spherical and has
a uniform gravitational field, or with a more precise Earth model [7]. In the simplified model, an object’s
ballistic trajectory can be defined using the following invariants: its specific energy, E; its orbital angular
momentum, L; the transformation matrix M of three vectors x0, y0, and z0 used to align the plane
containing the trajectory with an Earth reference; and the time ta at which the ballistic object will pass
through its perigee.

Perigee

Target
Equatorial
Plane
E

© 2016 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

To illustrate this approach with a straight-forward example, suppose it is desired to compare a trajectory
currently being observed with the trajectory of an object that was previously observed, perhaps by a
different sensor on a different platform. The agreement between the two sets of invariants for each of the
observations indicates the likelihood of whether they are of the same object. In this case, the algorithm
would determine the invariants of both objects and map them into the reference graph, then it would be
presented with selection criteria nominally using the set of invariants for the object currently being
observed, along with a “padding” range for each invariant intended to reflect the expected effect of object
measurement error. The query graph would then be used with the selection criteria to locate all of the
objects in the reference data structure matching the criteria.

As another example of its utility, the algorithm could be used to locate all objects that will satisfy criteria
such as being present in a particular volume over a given span of time. In this example, which may be
used to develop a targeting solution, the selection criteria will consist of a range of the various invariants
specifying both the search volume and the search time.

This algorithm’s graph data structures are developed during a pre-processing phase. The algorithm uses
two interconnected graphs. The first, the reference graph contains a mapping of the expected range of
trajectory invariants into a reference graph data structure that will contain runtime references to individual
objects. The second, the query graph is interconnected with the reference graph to provide the necessary
paths to support the analyses to be performed on the trajectories. The following diagram shows this
structure.

910 930

925 940
920

950

The reference graph (labeled “910” in the above figure) provides a framework for representing an object’s
multi-dimensional invariant values. The reference graph uses a tree structure that provides a logarithmic
decomposition of the invariant space as one descends levels in the tree. The reference graph is a discrete

© 2016 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

representation of the invariant space, with the number of levels in the tree and the number of branches at
each level being dependent on the granularity desired for a given application. At runtime, as objects are
observed their invariants will be calculated, and the reference tree will be traversed to locate the
appropriate place in the graph to record the object based on its invariants. As the graph is traversed, a
record of the object will also be made at each visited node. When the object is “dropped” from
observation, the algorithm will be notified, and it will use that notification to initiate the removal of the
object from the reference graph by traversing the graph and deleting the object’s references.

The following figures show notional formulations of the reference graph. After the constants of motion
have been calculated, the six invariants are used to traverse the reference graph. In this notional
embodiment of the reference graph, Invariant A is broken down into ݊஺ discrete ranges, and the graph is
traversed from the Start node to the node corresponding to the range for that invariant.

Invariant A
Range 1

Invariant A
Start Node
Range 2

Invariant A
Range nA

This process the proceeds in a similar manner for each of the five subsequent invariants. The second
invariant is used to traverse the graph from the Invariant A range node previously selected to the Invariant
B node corresponding to the range in which contains the B invariant value. After the first five tiers of
nodes in the graph have been traversed, the invariant E node is reached, whose k-th range contains the
value of the fifth invariant, as shown in the drawing below.

© 2016 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

 Invariant F
Range 1

Invariant E Invariant F
Range k Range 2

Invariant F
Range nH

Depending on the value of the sixth invariant, one of the ݊௛ Invariant F range nodes is selected, and the
target is then assigned to one of these “leaf” nodes of the reference graph. The effect is a logarithmic
traversal of the reference graph for the purpose of assigning each of the targets to a particular leaf node of
this graph.

Query tree traversal is more ad hoc, depending on the nature of the pre-designed query (or queries) that
this graph is designed to accommodate. However, the query graph traversal from its Start node to the
appropriate leaf that represents the query is also logarithmic. Once the selected leaf of the query graph is
reached, the pointer (or pointers) from the leaf node of the query graph is used to select the appropriate
leaf node (or nodes) of the reference graph. Examination of the selected reference graph leaf node (or
nodes) then directly indicates references to the targets that satisfy the query criteria.

The object’s invariants should not change significantly during the time it is under observation, but the
invariants should be recalculated periodically to ensure that its representation in the graph is still valid. If
a significant change is detected in the invariants, the object’s representation in the reference graph will be
updated by the algorithm to reflect the new set of invariants. In preferred embodiments of the algorithm,
the updates will simply result in shifts in those parts of the object’s reference graph traversal for those
invariant components that changed significantly. This results in faster processing for update changes than
for the instantiation of a new object in the reference graph.

The query graph (labeled “930” in the above figure) will be connected at design-time to the reference
graph (using the connections labeled “950” in the above figure) to allow rapid identification of objects
satisfying the query criteria. The nature of the query criteria must be identified prior to preprocessing so
that the appropriate interconnections to the reference graph can be installed. The query criteria will also
be discrete, meaning that it will use criteria with predetermined ranges of invariant values.

For example, one set of criteria might be to select all objects in the reference graph that will be contained
in a given volume during a given span of time. In this case, the query graph connections would be made
to the level or levels of the reference graph corresponding to the size of the volumes and range of the time
spans. Then for each of the anticipated combinations of volumes and time spans, the locations in the
reference graph corresponding to all of these combinations will be computed, and an interconnection will

© 2016 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

be made from the query graph to the corresponding place in the reference graph. The structure of the
query graph will also be tree-like with logarithmic decomposition at each level of the query tree, so as to
minimize the time needed to identify those locations in the reference graph corresponding to the
combination of the query criteria. Note that a given set of query criteria may correspond to multiple
locations in the reference graph, which situation will be accommodated by using multiple paths from the
query graph to the reference graph for such query criteria combinations. At runtime, as a query is
presented to the algorithm it will traverse the query graph to identify the locations in the reference graph
that correspond to the query criteria. Note that these locations in the reference graph may be empty,
which would indicate that there are no objects presently satisfying the query criteria.

The resolution of both graphs is a function of the desired accuracy and rapidity of the calculations. In
general, this algorithm is used to rapidly select a group of candidate targets that roughly satisfy a given
query, with subsequent calculations used to further down-select these candidates to only those that meet a
set of precise criteria. The candidates are selected by the algorithm in ܱሺŽ‘‰ ݊ሻ computational operations,
where ݊ is the number of targets; thereby significantly reducing the ܱሺ݊ሻ processing that would otherwise
be necessary to select targets for analysis.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

[1] J. Kepler Astronomia nova (1609)

[2] I. Newton Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica (1687)

[3] R. Bate, D. Mueller, and J. White Fundamentals of Astrodynamics, (1971)

[4] C. Runge, Über die numerische Auflösing von Differentialgleichungen, Math. Ann. 46 (1895) 167-
178

[5] W. Kutta, Beitrag zur näherungsweisen Integration totaler Differentialgleichungen, Z. Math. Phys. 46
(1901) 435-453

[6] R. Pedersen, P. Mountcastle, S. Viss; Method and system for analyzing ballistic trajectories, US patent
application serial number 13/787, 287 (2013)

[7] L. Sczaniecki, Constants of Motion, (2014), Lockheed Martin CET Technical Memorandum

© 2016 Lockheed Martin Corporation. All Rights Reserved.