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OP-ED

Changing regional apparatus

Fawad Kaiser

What is the regional strategy of today’s Pakistan? Conflicts presently standing in the changing
regional apparatus are very worrying. The strains are making themselves felt clearly. A multitude of
pressures and instabilities threatens to shred the political map of Pakistan and regional countries. A
toxic brew of growing terrorism, rising insecurity, militant insurgency, gas pipeline projects and
success of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is provoking more political discontent and
polarisation, leading to political strife in many countries and devastating violence in some. Although
Pakistan is most affected and most vulnerable, Afghanistan, Iran, India and China are by no means
immune to some of the same stress factors.

Despite lifting sanctions against Iran, contrasting views were expressed on how they are likely to
affect the region and Iran’s role therein. Iran’s considerable influence over parts of the region,
including Syria and Yemen, generates instability in the region but also fuels a sense of threat among
Arab states. It is hoped that the nuclear agreement will now lead us towards a broader regional
understanding that will promote order and stability in the region otherwise afflicted by increasing
conflict and extremism, and assuage the security concerns of the US in the region. However, others
counter that numerous international actors are feeding the conflict in this region and that regional
instability is largely a product of western interventions in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran, which have
fuelled violence, terrorism and extremism. In that context, Pakistan’s voice is in fact one of
moderation. A common refrain is that prospects for long-term stability in the region will depend
largely on improvement in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan’s largest province, Balochistan, may not mean much to many but among experts it is known
as a sectarian terrorism hotbed and some US lawmakers are even calling for its independence. The
Balochistan region and its geo-political importance now stand second to none. It is a place that has
become a hot destination for intelligence services from around the globe. Looking at its location as
part of Pakistan, it borders Afghanistan and Iran. Apart from being seen as an extremely volatile and
dangerous place, Balochistan has great geo-political importance where major oil powers have
interests.

Balochistan sits at the crossroads of oil and gas pipelines coming from Central Asia, Iran and
elsewhere. The Iran-Pakistan pipeline project and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline
project are of significant importance with reference to the coveted ‘pipeline wars’. Not to mention
Balochistan has its own energy resources besides its water port and its access point where Chinese
commercial shipping to the Indian Ocean and Africa is operable. This future match to Dubai port is
enriched with business opportunities. But all the violence and instability does not make it an easy
place for business and some oil powers seem busy in keeping it this way.

First we have various indigenous terrorist organisations that operate inside Balochistan like Jundallah,
a militant organisation claiming to fight for the rights of Sunni Muslims in Iran. Jundallah is an
organisation that for decades has been focused on destabilising Iran. The confluence of these various
terrorist organisations is of course not coincidental. Conspiracy theories suggest that this has a direct
relation to the interests of US and western powers vis-à-vis blocking the Chinese route, destabilising
Pakistan and part of waging their covert war against Iran with hopes of not just encircling Iran but
causing an upset from outside as well.

The US denies having any contact with Jundallah or other terror organisations although CIA memos
leaked recently allege that Israel’s secret service, Mossad, recruited Jundallah members under the nose
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of US intelligence officers. As far as other militant organisations are concerned, there are a few people
in the US Congress who have expressed readiness to support the separation of Balochistan from
Pakistan. The White House spokesman refutes any such allegations, saying regional instability is due
to the government’s lack of a tight grip on underlying political conflicts and that most issues are
actually being caused by actions taken by the Pakistan government itself. As far as reaping any benefit
from the instability in Balochistan is concerned, most military experts say it is extremists of all kinds,
mainly al Qaeda and its affiliates as well as the Taliban, that have certainly got an ongoing interest in
maintaining the instability in this region. In the absence of genuine political debate, ethnic, sectarian
and tribal differences have resurfaced as important markers of identity, and have become drivers of
conflict. The result is the weakening and unravelling of the region and, in some cases, warfare.

Balochistan is a key square in the geopolitical chessboard. The US knows that it cannot compete with
China economically or industrially so rumours abound about it trying to sting China‘s development
through these subversive tactics. According to experts, pipeline wars are real and global powers are
using them shrewdly in creating instability. The secret oil war is inducing conflict among regional
power players and the US is allegedly using this as one of the instruments to gain an advantage, but
there is always the risk that it can backfire with more terrorism, violence and regional instability.

There is an entire possibility that it could also backfire in terms of terrorist reciprocation against the
US but this did not prevent the US in the late 1970s from financing and supporting the mujahideen
against the Soviets and it has failed to change its policy by supporting the rebels in Syria. Allegations
that some global powers may be stoking violence in places like Balochistan comes from their
geopolitical interests but it is quite disturbing and raises the question whether pipeline wars are a
reality and if Pakistan is being pulled into the region’s most dangerous game with regional security at
risk. These underlying factors are, of course, worrying. In the past, governments often managed to
channel such pressures into patriotism and nationalism, diverting the energy of antagonism towards
external adversaries. Today, by contrast, the more likely result is a weakening and unravelling of
provinces and, in some cases, warfare.
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PAKISTAN CHANGING REGIONAL APPRATUS

Pakistan and changing regional apparatus

Following dimensions of the topic are to be explored for better appreciation of the answer:

Present scenario of international organizations with special reference to Pakistan

Status of world politics and world disputes (especially Middle East crisis) and implications on Pakistan

Global alliances at present and impacts on Pakistan

Geostrategic position of Pakistan and its importance with reference to neighboring countries and big
powers.

Status of relations with neighboring countries, big powers and Muslim world and impacts on
domestic politics and economy.

Religious extremism, sectarianism and terrorism with reference to global impacts.

Following are the possible questions that may be asked from the above topics:

Cold war allies are no more allies in the era of economic mercantilism?

Stability in the region lies in economic integration. Discuss with special reference to South Asia?

Changing socio-political and economic outlook is alarming for the region. Critically analyze

Peace in Pakistan is myth without regional stability? Discus

Regional hegemony is at cross-roads but peace shall prevail longer. Elaborate

What would be the future implications of Sino-Pak economic cooperation agreements? Critically
analyze.

War on terror has resulted in usual ties between Washington and Islamabad? Discuss

Political outlook of Pakistan may result in repeating the history in terms of domestic, economic and
foreign affairs. Elaborate

Competition in South China Sea in nothing more than Western quest of dominance in the region?
Critically analyze.

Quote
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PAKISTAN & CHANGING REGIONAL APPARATUS

INTRODUCTION

Pakistan is strategically located between the twin forces of competition and collaboration in the
mega-region that embraces Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, and Caucasus. Central Asia and
South Asia form two contiguous strategic sub-regions of this mega-region. Since the beginning of the
21st century, these two sub-regions have formed the focus of international politics as a result of the
US-NATO war on terror in Afghanistan, the next-door presence of a rising China, a post-cold-war
resurgent Russia, and the hegemonic pretensions of India. US war of terror generally was seen in
reality as the sole superpower usurping the strategic void available in Taliban's Afghanistan and thus
trying to exude the strategic effects, including containment of China and driving a wedge between
China and Pakistan. Pakistan sits right in the middle of this regional geopolitical dynamics. This
dynamic force influences the complexion of both the foreign policy and the national politics of
Pakistan. The presence of big, middle and small powers in the regional politics both presents
challenges and provides opportunities that create a cauldron of conflicting interests making the
region inherently unstable and vulnerable to manipulation. Since ancient times, the region has been
periodically agitated due to the hegemonic struggles between powers. Regardless of the size and
magnitude of the national power of the countries involved, it is not possible for any country - not
even the big powers like the US, China and Russia - to pursue its policies by acting unilaterally in the
region. This has led to working alliances between small and big powers based on mutual interests
and common vision for the region. Due to the constantly evolving configuration of forces in existence
in the region since the 1950s; China and Pakistan have found it mutually beneficial to work together
for the greater prosperity and peace of the region. This has resulted in a durable bilateral strategic
relationship aimed at the preservation of mutual interests. Like all nation-states, however, the two
countries face challenges intertwined with opportunities that simultaneously strain and strengthen
the bilateral relations. And therefore, the primary challenge that China-Pakistan cooperation faces in
the region is to correctly understand and deal with the destructive and constructive currents which
run across the region. Common understanding of challenges and opportunities needs to be forged
between the two friends in this regard.
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The conflicting and differing American and Chinese notions of security are a potential cause of
instability in the region. The actions considered defensive in nature by the Chinese are precisely
those which are thought by the Americans to be aggressive and vice versa (Kissinger 2012). The
different strategic interpretations will keep the possibility of conflict alive. While it will hardly bring
US and China face-to-face and may even paradoxically result in increased cooperation between the
US and China to prevent such a face-off, this difference of world-views can become difficult for their
partners to handle, especially Pakistan.

Related to this is the ever-alive possibility that there may after all be areas where the US AND China,
despite their economic interdependence, may not reach convergence. Given the dynamic nature of
international system, it may not be advisable to pinpoint these areas of non-convergence, but the
principle which will underpin, this non-convergence needs to be spelled out so that the subsequent
identification of areas of non-convergence between the US and China becomes convenient; any
initiative or area developments which will lead to a qualitative leap in Chinese power with the
prospect of outdoing US overall superiority in military and economic power will be a point of non-
convergence of interests and policies between the US and China. If China's relations with other
nations are the occasion or decisive steps in its gaining the above-mentioned advantage over the US,
then those nations may witness themselves becoming involved in the great-power proxy competition
that may prove detrimental to such nations and the regions where such nations are located.

The nature of Pakistan's current relationship with both China and the US is very interesting. Unlike
the Cold War and Afghan-Soviet conflict, where Pakistan was clearly allied with the US against the
former Soviet Union, the situation today is markedly different. Today, Pakistan enjoys a broad and
durable friendship with China and a critical but limited, and at times troubled and defiant, alliance in
the war on terror with the US. Even during the Cold War, Pakistan never compromised its strong
relationship with China at any cost nor did it give up pursuing nuclear parity with India. Occasionally,
the interests of Pakistan and USA have clashed in this war and the two have been seen to work at
cross purposes. But this is no reason to believe that the US and Pakistan cannot develop a greater
understanding of their mutual interests in the region. Both China and the US need a strong
relationship with Pakistan to further their goals in the region. Parallel relationships with the US and
China is Pakistan's biggest challenge and opportunity. Just as nature is said to abhor vacuum, so does
geopolitics discourage parallelism and ambivalence.

China's President Xi lipping wants to restore the Middle Kingdom to past pre-eminence. Deng
Xiaoping's caution has been replaced by demands for due deference to Chinese power.

CHINA
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Pakistan is important for China because the latter's geo-strategic needs in the region, to an extent,
are reliably provided for by Pakistan. Pakistan is conscious of the fact that China has always displayed
a special concern toward its neighbors. Pakistan, being a vital part of China's strategic periphery, is,
as always, fully committed to fully support China's peaceful development policies and prevent
destabilization of Xinjiang from within its borders by Uighur-related militancy. Pakistan also
recognizes that China should be afforded a broad-based mutually beneficial opportunity of
leveraging Pakistan's geopolitical position to make up for the limitations imposed by its own
geography.

Relationship of China with Pakistan is, therefore, very important because it enables China to both
limit the regional ambitions of India and enhance its standing with India. The purpose is not to
antagonize India but direct the potential force of regional relations to become advantageous for
China and Pakistan. India's Pakistan obsession and its territorial disputes, reinforced by Indian
hegemonic aspirations, strengthen ties between China and Pakistan so that India's anti-Pakistan
ambitions can be kept under check. It is important to mention here that the US has not been
interested in offering a credible security to Pakistan in this regard.

The rise of China compels Beijing to influence the regional game to suit the needs of its own
development and security while keeping a light security footprint. The regional strategy, from China's
viewpoint, consists in creating a synergy of cooperation with the Central Asian Republics and the
surrounding countries. China intends to establish a beneficial network of trade and energy coupled
with a focus on programs for the domestic development of its regional partners.

America, however, is focused on maintaining a situation in which it remains the predominant player
in regional geopolitics in this region. In this regard, it is determined to maintain a military presence in
the area, especially in Afghanistan. It is actively pursuing a “strategic” relationship with India to prop
it up as a regional power player with a view to checking China's access to the Arabian Sea and the
Persian Gulf via Pakistan. This has also given India a convenient umbrella to pursue its own
traditional hostile agenda against Pakistan. Notwithstanding the alliance with Pakistan in the war on
terror, the US is employing all means, both overt and covert, to pressure Pakistan into supporting its
geo-political agenda in the region and push Pakistan into accepting a subordinate role to India. At the
very least, it seeks to keep Pakistan and Afghanistan in a destabilized and anarchic state to achieve is
geo-political goals.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinto Abe's economic program is driven by a resolve to rebuild Japan's
capacity to stand up to Beijing.
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Pakistan, in this situation, provides the South Asian buttress to the positive geopolitical networking
of China and Central Asia. It can further contribute to the success of Chinese plans for the
development of Central Asia through its own domestic development and increased trade, transport
and energy links with Western China, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan stands to benefit
and is, therefore, deeply interested in enhancing the overall effect of China's investments in Central
Asia through the development of its national energy, trade, industrial, and transport corridors
leading to greater multi-faceted regional connectivity of which China will be one of the key
beneficiaries. As a consequence of this development, Pakistan can also benefit from connectivity to
Chinese-built rail-based land bridges linking Chinese cities of Shanghai and Chongqing to European
ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp.

Vladimir Putin, the fourth of Asia's nationalist horsemen, has shown with his military intervention in
Ukraine Russia's contempt for cooperative international order.

US

US strategic outlook considers American intervention in the regions surrounding China and Russia as
the most credible guarantee for ensuring stability in the Sino-Russian regional neighborhood and
believes that "the security of a number of weaker states located geographically next to major
regional powers depends (even in the absence of specific US commitment to some of them) on the
international status quo reinforced by America's global pre-eminence". This strategic mind-set is
enough to put at rest any false hopes regarding American intentions to withdraw any time soon from
Afghanistan or from the region at large. The continued presence of US military forces and bases in
Afghanistan is a sure recipe for continued conflict and anarchy in the region which will negatively
impact all plans for peaceful economic development of the region. Such a situation poses the biggest
challenge to China-Pakistan cooperation. However, there is no other viable option but to assiduously
pursue this cooperation, predominantly in the non-military aspects, as a counterweight to American
military presence in the region to be able to create a strong basis for future peace in Afghanistan and
the region. Pakistan, therefore, faces multiple geostrategic challenges in military and non-military
forms. As the most powerful country in the current inter-state system, US shall try to maintain its
global supremacy at all costs. America's unparalleled economic supremacy in the world will
increasingly come to be challenged by China as it continues its rise, though at present China is far
behind the US. America is already apprehensive of resurgent post-Soviet Russia, and, if past history is
any guide, the potential for competition will be the dominant tendency in US-Russia and Russia-
NATO relations, the veneer of cooperation notwithstanding. This will recreate the old Cold War
dynamics where the US may increasingly view China as a counter-weight against Russia. This will
create favorable conditions for China and Pakistan. However, the benefits of China-Russia-Pakistan
nexus, if it succeeds in developing, will be greater. Nevertheless, America has always perceived China
warily. China's sustained rapid economic development has driven it to the top of US global security
agenda and has resulted in what has been termed the US pivot to Asia. Perhaps the only other
country that is of an equally high concern to the American security establishment is Russia.
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Territorial quarrels with Beijing are-- Japan in the East China Sea and India on its northern border.
Both worry about Chinese naval power in the Indian Ocean.

IRAN

The real core of US animosity with Iran is the latter's courageous stand for its own independently
defined ideals of social and political sovereignty without serving American interests at the expense of
its own welfare. Iran is also projected as the biggest present threat to the security of Israel, which, for
all practical purposes, is an extension of America's security. Owing to a preponderance of Zionist
influence in American economic and political spheres, the US considers any threat, projected or real,
to Israel as a threat to itself. Pakistan, being the sole Muslim country with operational nuclear
capability, is also considered a potential threat in this regard by the US. Therefore, any Iran-Pakistan
symbiosis is viewed with high discomfort and fear on the Capitol Hill.

AFGHANISTAN

India will continue to undermine any Pakistani effort to mend fences with Afghanistan. It was India
which supported the Northern Alliance (NA), even in the UN, while Taliban ruled over 90% of
Afghanistan. It is instructive to note here that it was India and the Northern Alliance which assisted
the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. It will suppress any Afghan desire to normalize relations with
Pakistan through injections of newly accumulated Indian finance capital and contrived evocation of
the past friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The US war on terror has provided an
opportunity to India to consolidate its position in Kabul due to the domination of the Northern
Alliance there. Regardless of the misguided convergence of Indian and Afghan interests with regard
to Pakistan, India's ability to influence Afghanistan will prove less effective in the face of a sustained
Pakistani initiative to utilize cultural commonalities, locational complementation, economic
interdependence, and the re-emergence of Taliban as responsible power sharers in a future Afghan
dispensation. The attraction that Afghanistan should feel in a good relationship with Pakistan has
been weakened by factors like the war on terror. Pakistan's success lies in playing its part for peaceful
Afghanistan and then making it a durable ally of Pakistan which has not historically been the case.
Pakistan should, therefore, seek to befriend the Northern Alliance and thus aim at the prevention of
the accumulation of second-order power in Indian hands over Afghanistan by strengthening its
bilateral relationship with Afghanistan, by revitalizing once-strong Pakistan-Iran relations and by
bringing Afghanistan closer to China.

The mutual advantages of a deeper Pak-Afghan cooperation should be highlighted. Indo-Afghan

relationship, mainly focused on the Northern Alliance, cannot be half as useful to Afghanistan when
the pashtuns, who form almost 50% of the population of Afghanistan, rejoin governance and the
Northern Alliance shrinks to its due size in politics. Also, Pakistan should stress the pros of
geographical contiguity in its dialogue with Afghan leaders. A stable Pak-Afghan relationship can
open its doors for accelerated development of Afghanistan, Central Asia and Pakistan where China's
involvement in this process of integrated regional development will act as a catalyst. This would
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dovetail ideally with China's own development as well. This will also allow Pakistan to gain access
across the Wakhan Corridor, which separates Pakistan from Tajikistan, for reaching out to Central
Asia and becoming a reliable partner in China's developmental strategy in the region.

Pakistan should, therefore, expedite socio-economic bridging with Western China and build
complementary bridges into Central Asia both through Afghanistan and Iran to link up with China's
vision of progress for Central Asia. Troubles in Xinjiang and Muslim-led terrorism will cause serious
friction in the smooth development of China-Pakistan strategic and economic relationship. In fact,
Pakistan fully recognizes that the development of a strong economic relationship with China depends
on the former's ability to completely defeat militancy, terrorism and foreign-funded secessionist
insurgency in Baluchistan and assist China secure stability in Xinjiang, which is a core Chinese
national interest. Therefore, Pakistan is fully committed to helping China achieve stability in Xinjiang.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a milestone in this respect.

From ancient Central Asian invaders and Medieval Muslim conquerors to European colonizers, this
resource-rich region has assumed irreversible significance even in the modern era. For instance,
during the Cold War period, the capitalist world under the leadership of the US, and the communist
bloc led by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) sought to win allies in modern South Asia.
Little wonder then, post-partition India, ensconced in the Nehruvian understanding of global capital
and politics, and opted to apparently stay non-aligned.

INDIA

Pakistan needs to take special care of Baluchistan, Sindh and KPK as they may be vulnerable to
external attempts at destabilization. Pakistan's nuclear capability should deter India from military
invasion aimed at achieving strategic goals. However, Indian Army Chief has been talking about
limited military incursions under nuclear umbrella. This amply proves India's covert involvement in
spreading anarchy inside Pakistan. Therefore, India is actively pursuing and supporting terrorist and
militant elements and fanning ethnic and sectarian tensions inside Pakistan. It is also actively
teaming up with anti-Pakistan elements within and without in a campaign of vilification of Pakistan
and its important national institutions, especially Pakistan's military and associated intelligence
agencies. India is pursuing a two-pronged policy consisting of encirclement and of destabilizing the
core of Pakistan's sovereignty from within. The fact remains that peace in Baluchistan and KPK is not
possible as long as the war on terror continues and instability continues to be fomented by foreign
factors. The real challenge is to counter all such efforts with superior strategy executed with
efficiency and perseverance.

Apart from Kashmir and other unresolved issues, water is another contentious problem between
India and Pakistan. Shortage of water can have adverse socio-economic and geopolitical effects and,
therefore, needs to be addressed with urgency and firmness.
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India is misusing its new-found post-9/II role in Afghanistan in two ways. First, its economic
assistance package to Afghanistan, primarily run by the Northern Alliance and Tajiks to the detriment
of the majority of pashtuns, is geared to undermining Pak-Afghan relationship and second, in
Afghanistan, it is using Afghan territory to coordinate destabilization and balkanization activities
inside Pakistan.

Geopolitically, the emphasis of Indian diplomacy is on minimizing pro-Pakistan goodwill among

Pakistan's neighbors and other countries in the region. India shall continue to further its anti-Pakistan
agenda by entering into extensive economic, defense and cultural agreements with US, EU,
Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asian Republics (CARS) and Russia. India shall continue to provide
maximum possible support to secessionist, separatist, and ethnic movements. As mentioned above,
it is impossible to ignore the Indian hand in the aggravation of the troubles in Baluchistan and in
Gilgit-Baltistan. In this regard, Pakistan can learn from modern Chinese strategic thought which holds
that external causes become operative mainly through internal causes. Pakistan must seek internal
stability by promoting equity-based development in the country through an efficient system of good
governance. Domestic peace and harmony should be one of its top priorities. Pakistan should
simultaneously establish strong regional trade and diplomatic links with countries like Nepal,
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and other Southeast Asian nations in general in the same manner
as India is doing with Pakistan's neighbors and CARS. India shall invest in all opportunities to score
against Pakistan. Its support for Russia's project to build a North-South Transport Corridor -- the
competitor of Gwadar project - through Iran is an example of it.

Since the Czarist days, Russians looked to Afghanistan for strategic, political and economic
penetration inside South Asia and beyond. Moreover, the modern Indian state viewed Afghanistan as
a potential source to make inroads into Central Asia along with the containment of Pakistan.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Russia

A very interesting passage occurs in Sun Tzu's, Art of War which says,

"Land that is surrounded on three sides by competitors and would give the first to get it access to all
the people on the continent is called intersecting ground"

(Sun Tzu translated by Thomas Cleary 1988)

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The "intersecting ground" refers to the intersection of various national arteries that link together
various highway systems in the region. Central Asia is the “Intersecting ground” of the regional
geopolitics where Chinese efforts will meet Russian attempts to reassert dominance. Improved
relations of China and Pakistan with Russia will mean that the immense energy resources of Russia
will support China's growth and not be used to undermine the latter's position in the region.

China-Pakistan-Russia cooperation will find suitable support mechanism in Shanghai Cooperation

Organization (SCO). SCO is significant as the first post-Cold War multilateral platform created directly
as a result of Chinese initiative. It is an example of how China is building asymmetric power by
utilizing concepts, institutions and things innovatively. Russia may be apprehensive of Chinese pro-
active role in SCO, yet enough room exists in that multilateral body to promote China-Russia synergy.
After all, pooling of strengths economically in SCO is more realistic than pursing anti-NATO ambition
like Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

SCO is a manifestation of China’s policy of "Good Neighborliness" which is being used to deliver its
"New Security Concept" succinctly enunciated by China in its "Four Nos" policy namely, "no
hegemony; no power politics; no alliances; and no arms race" and is a means for providing economic
cooperation, trade opportunities, energy transport and meaningful security cooperation. As China
continues to rise economically, its foreign policy has witnessed increased confidence manifested in
the "shift from non-interference to creative involvement; a shift from bilateral to multilateral
diplomacy; a shift from reactive to preventative diplomacy; and a move away from strict
nonalignment toward semi-alliances". SCO offers an appropriate platform for China's policy of
furthering semi-alliances or strategic partnerships that avoid the burly posture but deliver the
security of an alliance. China-Pakistan horizontal integration of the region will neutralize the big-
power advantages of countries like Russia, US and India and compel an equal participation in the
processes of regional, social and economic development.

Pakistan gave up its more or less non-partisan position-on the strife in Syria and endorsed the Saudi
demand for setting up a transitional administration with full executive powers in Syria, implying
removal of President Bashar al Assad from power.

TURKEY

Pakistan has traditionally enjoyed a strong relationship with Turkey. This relationship can allow
Pakistan to broaden its geostrategic opportunities and reinforce the already fast-developing China-
Turkey relationship manifested in the construction and diversification of Chinese-conceived Eurasian
Land Bridges that connect China to the vast Eurasian landmass via Turkey. Turkey has a central
geopolitical location allowing it to move in multiple directions. This geopolitical potential of Turkey
should be productively channeled by a strong and mutually advantageous Turkey-Pakistan
relationship that should enable Pakistan both to benefit from these developments and also
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compensate for the restrictions resulting from its close relationship with Iran due to fallout of US-Iran
rivalry.

Conclusion and recommendations

Versatile Geopolitical system: It is important to note that Pakistan has a versatile geopolitical
potential which can multiply opportunities for cooperation not only with China but with other
important regional players. However, China-Pakistan cooperation can provide a solid foundation for
the diverse partnerships that Pakistan can and should build to attain strategic sustainability.

Geostrategic Games: In response, the threat of Indian aggression, terrorism, religious and sectarian
extremism, domestic and regional destabilization, and other such instruments shall be deployed by
opposing global actors to negatively impinge upon China-Pakistan relationship. India's past conflicts
with China and Pakistan and ensuing tensions will also be exploited to forestall any movement
towards triangular understanding between these three countries.

Regionalism: The formation of a constructive triad between China, Pakistan and India can help the
region tremendously. India, however, will occasionally create contrived military show-downs with
Pakistan just like the recent spate of Indian-initiated violence across the Line of Control early this
year. The challenge for China, Pakistan and India would be to see if they can transcend history.

Bilateral Talks: Open bilateral talks now with all Afghan ethno-political groups for building a broad-
based relationship with Afghanistan in the post-US/NATO drawdown phase. This should be carried
out as complementary efforts to build peace and stability in Afghanistan and restore normalcy in the
region. Historical Pak-Afghan relationship should be made a basis for such an initiative. This requires
a separate bilateral effort in parallel to international efforts.

Diplomacy: Resume front-channel track-one talks with India on all issues including Kashmir and water
resources. Open a diplomatic initiative with all regional countries (Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, CARs,
Turkey, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, etc.) for taking them into confidence regarding the
proposed Pak-Afghan bilateral talks and keeping them updated on it.

Diffuse sectarian rifts: Pursue an energetic diplomatic initiative to co-opt Saudi Arabia and Iran into
efforts to diffuse tensions and prevent the exacerbation of the already dangerous sectarian strife,
including the Shia-Sunni schism, within the Muslim countries. Pakistan is the worst affected in this
regard and needs to focus its energies in this direction.

Strengthen relations with EU: Strengthen diplomatic relations with EU countries to complement
relations with the US.

Revival of relations with Russia: Open a focused diplomatic initiative with Russia with a view to
getting over the past and enabling the development of positive relationship between Russia and
Pakistan leading to a wider regional cooperation.
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PAKISTAN AND CHANGING REGIONAL

APPARATUS
JANUARY 19, 2016 SHAZMA66 1 COMMENT

Pakistan’s geo-strategic position has been a major subject of interest among

International Affairs scholars since its inception, but Pakistan’s leadership never
bothers to pay heed.

Like quite often in past, Pakistan finds itself in the usual position of being a very
important observer amidst a regional and global crisis. It has important decisions
to make in near future, which will have a profound short and long term impact on
global scale. From choosing the best strategy to deal with India’s veiled threats
linked to national security to eliminating active internal anti-state elements;
there is a critical shifting regional apparatus around Pakistan right now.

A dynamic Foreign Policy for India

Pakistan’s foreign policy regarding India has always been a reactive one, reacting
to its threats and diplomatic moves. Therefore not surprisingly Pakistan finds
itself again trapped on back foot, defending the terrorist links hurled at her by its
neighbor although it should have been Islamabad demanding explanation from
India for its destructive role in Afghanistan, once the formal negotiations had
started.

Pakistan needs to fundamentally change its approach towards India from reactive
to proactive. It should actively engage India in diplomatic endeavors and should
keep India in international lime light for its domestic problems. Only then it would
be in a position to negotiate effectively on core issues like Kashmir and Indus
water treaty.

Mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran

It is high time to recognize and react to the proxy wars being played in Pakistan
by Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan gets affected by issues in Islamic sphere a lot
more than it should because its inflammatory internal elements are aided by
external elements. As a sovereign country, it is not required to get engaged in
every issue faced by Saudi Arabia, but it has to because of internal
demographics. Pakistan has again been tasked to mediate and resolve the
tensions between the two countries and it is not to avert another Gulf war but to
avoid country wide riots in Pakistan itself.

It has to recognize this proxy war being played out by its Islamic allies and put
measures to stop it. This will enable Pakistan to finally alienate itself from the
consequences of radical foreign policies of its neighbors and concentrate on
more pressing matters.

Pakistan is its own biggest enemy

In face of a shrinking economy, China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a rare ray of
hope and even before its implementation it has been shed into usual
controversies.
 14

China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a huge project and it requires extensive

debate and decision making on fronts like transportation, industrialization and
security sectors within Pakistan, but it certainly doesn’t require debate on
whether Punjab is Pakistan’s dominant province or not. But this is the mandate of
all parties’ conference and national politics these days and it is damaging our
relationship with China.

There are a lot of issues and key factors to be decided upon regarding the
project, such as location of industrial parks throughout the country, distribution
of energy projects and their allocation to national grid, revamping Pakistan’s
logistics sector but there is no need for reviving provincial differences and
making this agreement anything else other than it is, a landmark economic
project between Pakistan and China.

To conclude, the complex regional dynamics of Pakistan demand a timely

reaction from our government but in all likelihood this would not be the case.

Pakistan And Changing Regional Apparatus

Meaning For International Concerns
Despite commonalities in religion, ethnicity, culture and language relations between Pakistan and
Afghanistan have always been at odds and given rise to claims and counter claims. Historically,
during cold war era both neighboring countries remained in different camps; Pakistan being an ally of
US to contain communism and Afghanistan though remained neutral but was tilted towards
communist Russia and India. But despite this scenario there were positive aspects to it i.e. both
countries reached at Transit Trade agreement and during wars of 1965 and 1971 Afghanistan
remained neutral. So get further read about Pakistan And Changing Regional Apparatus

In 1979 due to the invasion of Russia on Afghanistan millions of refugees poured to Pakistan and a
new bond of fraternity established which have no example in history. Decades of experience have
shown that there can be no stability at the cost of the other. Therefore both countries are trying to
have cordial brotherly relation at the level of sovereign equality.

Pakistan And Changing Regional

Apparatus Meaning For International
Concerns

Despite commonalities in religion, ethnicity, culture and language relations between Pakistan and
Afghanistan have always been at odds and given rise to claims and counter claims. Historically,
during cold war era both neighboring countries remained in different camps; Pakistan being an ally of
US to contain communism and Afghanistan though remained neutral but was tilted towards
communist Russia and India. But despite this scenario there were positive aspects to it i.e. both
countries reached at Transit Trade agreement and during wars of 1965 and 1971 Afghanistan
remained neutral. So get further read about Pakistan And Changing Regional Apparatus

In 1979 due to the invasion of Russia on Afghanistan millions of refugees poured to Pakistan and a
new bond of fraternity established which have no example in history. Decades of experience have
shown that there can be no stability at the cost of the other. Therefore both countries are trying to
have cordial brotherly relation at the level of sovereign equality.
 15

In post 2014 scenario, geostrategic landscape is changing. Afghanistan is on way towards democratic
transition and Pakistan is also supporting social reformation in Afghanistan. There is still need for
intensification of communication at higher level to fight the common enemy i.e. Terrorism. Relations
between two countries need to be institutionalized at state level. Similarly people-to-people relations
need to be streamlined by civil society and systemic interaction and exchange of youth delegation.

Pakistan United States Relations Republican Positive Thinking

Culture, sports and information sectors are lacking systemic and official interaction. During
presidential election there was no Pakistani camera for coverage which shows the dismal level of
media interaction. In the same way cricket potential has not been utilized due to political baggage.

In 2014 Pakistan welcomed the unity government in Afghanistan and during the visit of Ashraf Ghani
both countries reiterated the need for mutual cooperation in socioeconomic development and
security situation. But they need to further strengthen cooperation in areas of peace and security
because trust deficit is still looming on their heads. Strong political will and utilization of all available
options is need of the hour for friendly relation of both countries.

Speaking earlier this year at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs on “Continuing Search for
Stability: Pakistan and Afghanistan,” noted Pakistani author Ahmed Rashid was quoted as saying by
Dawn that Pakistan has made two “grievous mistakes” in its foreign policy. The first came at the end
of the Cold War, he said, when Pakistan decided to “move proxy resources to Kashmir,” radicalizing
the Kashmiri nationalist movement.”

The second major error, according to Rashid, came in 2003 when General Pervez Musharraf decided
to resurrect the Afghan Taliban. This proved a shot in the arm for the Pakistani Taliban, and within
several years local militants in Pakistan were “calling for the overthrow of the Pakistani state.”
Increasingly, Pakistan was being accused by neighboring countries of providing safe sanctuaries for
militants on Pakistani soil.

In the wake of the Taliban’s assault on Peshawar’s Army Public School at the end of 2014, it was
widely believed that both the civil and military leaderships of Pakistan were keen to improve bilateral
relations with its neighbors. The army launched a robust crackdown on militant groups in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and elsewhere in the country. As a result, complaints from
Pakistan’s neighbors eased, even if they didn’t quite disappear entirely.
 16

Meanwhile, Pakistan stayed out of the Yemen conflict, instead declaring that it would remain neutral.
Then, in December last year, Islamabad surprised many observers when it announced that it opposed
any attempt to topple Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime. Speaking with the media, Pakistan’s
Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry said, “Pakistan is also against foreign military intervention
in Syria and fully supports the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.”

These major developments have increasingly irked Saudi Arabia, which has at any rate been tilting
toward Pakistan’s arch-rival India. But some independent analysts argued that Pakistan’s foreign
policy was now changing for the better. They claimed that the country has now realized it can no
longer use militant groups as an “extension of its national security policy.”

Unfortunately, the turnaround proved short-lived; militancy has once again strained the country’s
ties with India and Afghanistan following tragic incidents in both countries, for which Pakistan was
blamed. Ironically, Saudi Arabia, which has its own links to jihad, also raised doubts about Pakistan,
with the Saudi Interior Ministry identifying the Jeddah bomber as Pakistani national Abdullah Qlazar
Khan.

For their part, Pakistani authorities vigorously deny any connection to the attacks, and insist that
their soil is not being used against other countries. They cite the Pathankot attack, noting that the
director general of India’s National Investigation Agency, Sharad Kumar himself said that there was
no evidence to suggest that the Pakistani government was involved.

Still, in recent months, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has spoken on television of his
regret that relations with the U.S. are deteriorating, while criticizing Pakistan’s entry into the war of
Afghanistan in 1979 to oust the Soviet Union and its nurturing of terrorists after 9/11, when the U.S.
invaded Afghanistan.

Principles

Washington, D.C.-based political analyst and author Aparna Pande told The Diplomat: “There are two
underlying principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy and these principles have remained paramount right
from the creation of the country till today. The first is the desire to ‘escape India’ in the sense of
creating a national identity that was anti-India. Thus, Pakistan has preferred to be referred to as a
Greater Middle Eastern country not a South Asian one, because South Asian would mean accepting
that Pakistan was part of the greater Indian civilization. The second principle underlying Pakistan’s
policy is the desire for parity with India – not sovereign equality which every country has but parity –
 17

and this is specifically with respect to military parity (both conventional and nuclear) and economic
parity.”

She continued: “While every country adjusts its foreign policy somewhat depending on changing
circumstances, and Pakistan is no exception, I have yet to see any paradigm shift in Pakistan’s foreign
policy.”

“Pakistan still continues to use jihad as an element of its foreign policy with respect to India and
Afghanistan. Its policy towards the United States is still aimed at obtaining military hardware (such as
F-16s), economic assistance, and making promises it is unwilling or unable to keep (like promising
talks with Afghan Taliban that have yet to result in anything concrete, promising action against jihadi
groups but still differentiating between good and bad jihadis).”

China

By virtue of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China and Pakistan are moving closer to
one other. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, a Pakistan-based development analyst and freelance columnist, told
The Diplomat, “China-Pakistan economic ties have been consistently growing over the past two
decades and they will continue to grow in the future at a faster pace. There is hardly a sector of
Pakistan’s economy where China has not invested.”

He added that both countries signed a free trade agreement in 2006 to increase bilateral trade to
$15 billion per year by 2015. Although the trade target has not been achieved, bilateral trade is
expected to rise once the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is complete, said Fazl-e-Haider.

According to Pande, Pakistan still sees China as its friend or ally of last resort, a country that will
provide the assistance or investment to build Pakistan’s economy and the nuclear weapons capability
to defend Pakistan. For now, Pakistan still looks to the greater Muslim world, especially countries like
Saudi Arabia, for support, both diplomatic as well as economic, she said.

Asked about the China-Pakistan relationship, Pande observed: “China has a deep military relationship
with Pakistan, especially in the nuclear arena. China has also promised $46 billion in investment
under CPEC. These show the strength of the relationship, especially if the entire money promised
flows into Pakistan, but that will takes decades and we have to wait and watch. There are challenges
faced by the relationship especially with respect to radical Islam and China’s fears of radicalization
amongst the Uyghurs in Xinjiang.”
 18

For Fazl-e-Haider, “Pakistan is China’s strategic partner. The country is the China’s key energy link that
enables China to cut the time and distance for its oil transport from the Gulf. China plans to build a
gas pipeline from Iran to China through Pakistan, transfer LPG from Middle East by using railway
carriages and set up a major oil refinery at Gwadar.”

The analyst further observed that India, as a competitor of China in both the global energy game and
regional hegemony, is worried about China’s strategic goals for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
project. These appear to be energy security, the policing of the energy pipelines, oil trade, and
strategic dominance of the Indian Ocean.

Husain Haqqani, a noted Pakistan author and former Pakistan’s ambassador to America, said in an
interviewwith Newsline Magazine: “We have always had this mythical notion that a superpower ally
will come from outside, solve all our problems, improve our economy and build our military so we
can stand up to India. First we looked to the U.S., but they did not do what we expected them to do.
Then we turned to China and we have consistently believed China will solve all our problems.”

He went on: “China has often promised large amounts of investment in countries but rarely has all
that investment actually flowed through. For example, despite announcing plans for more than $24
billion in investment in Indonesia since 2005, a decade later China has invested only $1.8 billion
there.”

Still, as ties between China and Pakistan become increasingly warm, Pakistan is moving away from
Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan is today seen as paying little heed to Saudi
Arabia in particular, a stark contrast to earlier times. With China on its side, Pakistan played the role
of a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at a time when tensions were rife between them.

Iran

However, there is a rivalry between Pakistan and Iran, too. India’s relations with Iran are improving,
to Islamabad’s chagrin. “Gwadar will emerge as a competitor to the port of Chabahar in southeast
Iran. The port is being developed by India to open up a route to landlocked Afghanistan where it has
increased its economic and diplomatic presence. India is actually making efforts to circumvent
Pakistan, its arch rival through Chabahar port,” said Fazl-e-Haider.
 19

When Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited Pakistan following the lifting of the nuclear related
sanctions, an Iranian angle to the arrest of Kulbhushan Yadav also revealed that that all is not well in
the bilateral relationship. Soon, the Iranian embassy noted that the media reports on the matters
were based on “undignified and insulting content.” On the other hand, at a press conference military
spokesman Lt Gen Asim Bajwa said he could not say with certainty, or even knew, if the Iranian
government or its intelligence was aware of RAW carrying out its intelligence operation from its soil.
He went on to say that Iran had assured its cooperation in this regard.

India

According to some Islamabad-based journalists, since Narendra Modi came to power, he has adopted
a tough approach toward Pakistan. They cite several reasons why the Indian prime minister is trying
hard to isolate Pakistan regionally and internationally.

First, Narendra Modi is building closer ties with the Arab states, evident in his recent visits. Second,
following the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the Modi government is showing significant interest in Iran.
Third, as ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan have continued to fray, Modi is trying to erode
Pakistan’s image further in Afghanistan, and they are also trying to increase the “Indian influence” in
Afghanistan. Fourth, as China and Pakistan enjoy positive relations, the Modi government is trying to
build ties with America, while lobbying against Pakistan in America and in the West. Fifth, when the
horrendous July 1 attack took place in Dhaka, Islamabad-based analysts noted that the Indian media
tried to put the blame on Pakistan.

Afghanistan

When Afghan President Ashraf Ghani took office, he showed considerable leniency towards Pakistan,
over the opposition of most of his cabinet ministers. Ghani made a number of positive overtures with
both the civilian and military leaderships of Pakistan, all in vain. Following the announcement of the
demise of Mullah Mohammed Omar in Karachi, Afghanistan witnessed a rise in terror attacks. Again,
Pakistan was accused of providing safe sanctuary to the militants who were carrying out attacks
inside Afghan territory, a charge Pakistan has denied. Ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan further
soured when Mullah Akhtar Mansour was killed on Pakistani soil.

Islamabad-based analysts view relations with Afghanistan as unlikely to improve, because, they
argue, U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan is winding down. The U.S. is less concerned about
Pakistan now, they say. On the other hand, Pakistan has been accused by the U.S. of providing
 20

sanctuaries to Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban, which have been carrying out attacks inside
Afghanistan.

On the other hand, when the Afghan talks have failed to produce any results, fingers were pointed at
the Pakistani authorities. When asked, Pande noted: “Talks and negotiations will only succeed when
there are certain underlying principles that both sides agree to and when both sides believe in a win-
win situation where each side is willing to walk halfway or agree to a give and take. I am one of those
who is skeptical of the peace talks. I see these talks as going nowhere because while the Afghan
government and the United States may be willing to agree to a give and take, the other side – the
Afghan Taliban – believe in an all-or-nothing worldview.”

She added, “Until and unless the Afghan Taliban and their supporters – whether other jihadi groups
like the Haqqani network or even the state supporters they have in elements of the Pakistani security
establishment – do not suffer a defeat that will force them to agree to certain preconditions and
change their worldview I do not see these talks succeeding.”

Other Relations

What about Pakistan’s other key relations? In recent times, Russian President Vladimir Putin has
refused to visit Pakistan, with no clear reasons given. According to some foreign policy experts,
although India is tilting towards the West and America, Russia still remains one of its top defense
suppliers. It does not wish to anger India over Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s ties with America are also strained. Sartaj Aziz, a foreign affairs advisor to
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, has admitted that relations with the U.S. have been under stress over
the past three months because of conditions Washington attached to the funding of the F-16 sale.
Also, with fraying U.S.-Pakistan ties, Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have also gone from bad to
worse, to that point that the two countries were involved in conflicts on the Torkham border, killing
four soldiers and wounding 40 others.

As far as Bangladesh is concerned, Pakistan and Bangladesh have maintained mutual paranoia and
anger since 1971. In the past few years, Bangladesh has prosecuting those accused of carrying out
war crimes in support of Pakistani security forces in 1971, when Bangladesh was part of Pakistan.
Following the executions of BNP leader Salauddin Quader Chowdhury and Jamaat-e-Islami’s
secretary general Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujaheed for war crimes, bilateral ties soured, with the two
countries withdrawing their diplomats. This situation shows no sign of improving.
 21

“Main Threat”

According to Pande: “Pakistan’s leaders have always seen India as the main threat (the so-called
‘existential threat’) and Pakistan’s ties with every country are derived from how it views India. Since
India is perceived as a threat, it is important that Afghanistan, the other neighbor, be Pakistan’s
friend. Hence, Pakistan has always sought a pro-Pakistan anti-Indian Afghan government, whether it
be the mujahideen or the Taliban.”

Pande explains that the United States was “seen as the superpower ally who would build Pakistan’s
resources – economic and military – to stand up to India. When the U.S. appeared reluctant to do
this, China was seen as – and is still seen by many Pakistanis – as that mythical ally who will sweep in,
build Pakistan and help Pakistan be India’s equal. Pakistan’s leaders have always viewed the countries
in the Muslim world, especially Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab countries, as ideological allies in the
fight with India.”

Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, an independent political and defense analyst, noted that Pakistan needs smart
diplomacy to deal with India, Iran and Afghanistan as well as to cope with the current trouble in its
relations with the U.S. Smart diplomacy seeks to find alternative ways to deal with a situation when
one option does not offer a credible path forward. You do not wait for the situation to change on its
own; you invoke different diplomatic options to create space for yourself.

Most of the critics of Pakistan’s military establishment claim that it has been handling Pakistan’s
foreign policy directly and indirectly since 1958. Traditionally, Pakistan’s foreign policy was oriented
towards the West, notwithstanding overtures from the former Soviet Union.

When domestic opposition in Pakistan threatened Pakistan’s internal autonomy and pro-Western
foreign policy direction, the military took over the country in 1958. So, each time, argue the critics, a
democratically elected government takes over and tries to run Pakistan’s foreign policy
independently, it has been ousted. They note that after coming to power Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif tried to improve relations with India, and wanted to put former General Pervez Musharraf on
trial, but he came under pressure in the form of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and cleric
Tahir-ul-Qadri.

Said Pande: “There have been many occasions in Pakistan’s history when people hoped that things
would change but they just remained the same. Pakistani civilian leaders have sought to change the
 22

paradigm of relations with both India and Afghanistan since the return of civilian rule in 2008.
However, foreign and security policy in Pakistan is the domain of the military, especially the army and
the intelligence services. And the military-intelligence complex does not want any change.”

She added that real change will come only when the national narrative in Pakistan shifts, when all
jihadis are seen as hurting Pakistan and there is no differentiation between the good jihadis – who
fight in Afghanistan and India – and the bad ones who attack the Pakistani state. Despite some
cosmetic changes and operations in the north-west this shift in thinking has yet to happen.