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Vallum India Discovery

Investing Strategy
Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Mumbai, India
2017
Agenda
• The India Opportunity
• Outlook for Asset Classes
• Advantage Mid Market Investing in India
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy Features
• Vallum Team

Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd. 2


The India Opportunity

▪ High Real GDP Growth likely of 7% to 8% per annum


– We estimate near tripling of Indian GDP to USD 4.5 trillion in FY20 from FY10 levels.
– India’s per capita income is expected to almost double to ~USD 2,100 in FY20 from ~USD 1,160 in FY10.

▪ India’s Growth Story is at an Early Stage of Development


– Economic liberalization began in 1991; “free market scenario” in India is only two decades old
– As a result, restricted sectors in India such as organized retail, insurance etc. offer significant growth
potential.

▪ Favorable Indian Demographics and Largest Democracy


– The median age of the Indian population is just 26 years, as compared to 37 years for United States and
36 years for China.
– 170 million individuals are expected to join the Indian work force in the next 10-12 Years

▪ Indian Equity Markets: Secular Earnings Growth


– Indian equity markets offer secular earnings growth and sufficient sector diversification. BSE Sensex
earnings CAGR 15% over last 10 years.

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Indian Opportunity post 2014

▪ Credible and lasting fiscal correction, Likely to have sustained, low and stable inflation

▪ Demonetisation, a strong effort to check slippages as well as improve the ease of doing business

▪ Investment revival (without rekindling inflation)

▪ Macro stability even with higher US interest rates and US-dollar appreciation
Country wise Growth rate

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Government Unshackling Economic Development

✓ AADHAR ACT DBT for all beneficiary linked schemes.


20.73 crore bank accounts opened under PMJDY
Seeding of Aadhar no in 90% of ration Cards (FY17).

✓ HIGHWAYS & WATERWAYS Award of 10,000 kms. of National Highways in FY16


Upgradation of 50,000 kms. of State into
National Highways.
Implemented Sagarmala & National Waterways

✓ RAILWAYS 2 Lakh Crore investment in Railways & Road.

✓ AGRICULTURE National Agriculture Market Initiative launched


Mega Food Parks– govt. agencies can become
shareholders in SPVs
DBT for fertilizers to improve service delivery.

✓ TAXATION: Alignment of corporate tax rates with global average while


removing excessive exemptions

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Indian Fiscal Situation well placed

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India 2013 :: India 2016
India
2013 2016
Current account (% GDP) -4.8 -0.9
Direction Worsening Stable

FDI Balance (% GDP) 1.1 2


Direction Static Improving
Improvement in
Forex reserves (USD) 292 372 current account, FDI
balances and level of
% of adequate level 142.8 156.1 forex reserves.
Direction Static Rising
GDP growth is higher
Money Market rates 8.1 6.3 and the fiscal deficit
Falling Falling has improved.
Direction

Foreign Debt (% of GDP) 22.4 23.3

GDP growth 4.7 6.5


Direction Falling Rising

Fiscal deficit 4.9 3.5


Direction Improving Improving
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Key Structural Positive for India

▪ Demographics & Consumption : India is likely to add 170 mn workers to its labour
force till 2025, compared with 50 mn in China over the same period. By 2020 the
consuming class alone will be more than double the entire US.
▪ With Change of Government, there is return of Governance.

Population in Mn
185
Household Annual Income FY 05 FY 10 FY 20 136
92

Elite > USD 22,000 1% 2% 6%


868 962
749
Consuming USD 2,000 – USD 22,000 34% 47% 60%

374 364 338


Deprived < USD 2,000 65% 51% 34%
FY 10 FY 20 FY 30
Age 0-14 Age 15-59 Age 60+

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Current Government is addressing root issues
UID based transactions & their value India’s Annual Coal Production Growth
(m) (Rs bn)
25 10 (%YoY) 8.5
60
UID-based transactions
7.3
8
Transaction Value (RHS) BJP Govt. restarts
DBT,LPG-DBT from Jan1 6 4.6

UPA Govt. 4
withdraws DBT 1.3 1.3
before elections 2

0 0 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 YTD
Apr 13 Jul 15 -2 (0.2)

India’s Current Account Deficit Budgeted Railway Capex


100 6 1200
(US$bn) (%) (Rs bn)

+52% YoY
CAD (LHS) CAD (as % GDP)

+11% CAGR

0 0 0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15RE FY16BE

Source: CLSA: Multiple Legs l India Strategy, Sept 15 Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. ltd. 9
Structural Positives for India in next 18 months

▪ Demonetization will lead to slump in Real Estate prices and steep decline in Gold
prices this will help in huge financial migration and productive capital formation.

▪ GST is the biggest indirect tax reform which will improve tax compliance, boost
efficiency, unleash savings for businesses & facilitate a national common market.

▪ Low inflationary scenario will aid in resetting downward trend in interest rate
cycle .

▪ Government on all out effort to strengthen fundamental working of economy by


Lower MSP, Coal Auctions, DBT, Make in India program, transfer of greater
autonomy to states.

We remain long term positive on Indian Equity.

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Agenda
• India Opportunity
• Outlook for Asset classes
• Advantage Mid Cap Investing
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy Features
• Vallum Team

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Our Outlook on Various Asset Classes : Investment Horizon 3 Yrs

▪ Positive : India Equities Financial Assets of Households : Mar’15


▪ Positive : Long duration bonds
Provident Insurance
Funds
▪ Positive : Commercial Real Estate Cash & Pension
5%
3.1% Funds
▪ Negative : Residential Real Estate in Metro 4.1%
Equities
and Tier II town (refer to Valuenomics 2013) 2.7%

Bank
Asset Class ( Yield) Pre Tax (E/P) Property
Deposits
14.9% 57.8%
Equities – Midcap 6.0%
10 yr Sovereign Bond India 7.7% Gold
12.%
Equities – Large cap 5.0%
Real estate - Commercial 6.5%
Real estate - Residential 2.5% HOUSEHOLD ASSETS:
US$ 6.4 tn
Gold NIL

Source: CLSA: Brick by Brick l India Strategy, Sept 15

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Agenda
• India Growth Story : Resilient Economy
• Outlook for Asset classes
• Advantage Mid Cap Investing
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy Features
• Vallum Team

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Why Mid Market Investing for the next 10 years

▪ Macro Theme very powerful for India: Indian GDP propels over 7-9% p.a. middle
market companies are likely to do better. In chaos, mid markets companies have
become cheaper for India, while their growth rate propel faster than large cap
universe.
▪ Migration to Financial Assets, in absence of return from physical assets like Gold
and Property , is leading to domestic Investors having started to invest in equity
markets after gap of 7 years.
▪ Most of large cap have significant business in overseas market and sub par
overseas growth will also impact their business. E.g. : Top 100 companies have
around 40%+ revenue from overseas markets. Middle market companies good
proxy of India growth story.
▪ Large cap space crowded and dominated by Mutual fund, Insurance Ulips, FIIs
and over owned. Middle market companies under owned by investors .

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Agenda
• India Growth Story : Resilient Economy
• Outlook for Asset classes
• Advantage Mid Cap Investing
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy
• Vallum Team

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Investment Objective

▪ Investment Priorities (in Order)

• To generate Absolute Returns


• To beat the Benchmark by 5% p.a in 3-5 years
• To generate superior risk adjusted returns

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Investment Philosophy

▪ Fundamental Investing
• Buying Quality Businesses at a reasonable Price
• Having Edge? - Information, Cycle, Macro Evaluation
• No insider information, No technicals

▪ Process Orientation
• Stock selection and elimination
• Stock and Portfolio Monitoring
• Selling: Partial and Complete

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Investment Strategy

▪ Key Criteria’s
• Investing in 20-25 business opportunities. Sales > Rs 500 Crs
• No Stock More than 6% and less than 3% of portfolio while investing
• No Sector more than 25% of portfolio
• Multi Cap

▪ Risk Measurement of Stocks and Portfolio


• Review position after individual stock position has crossed 10% of portfolio
• Review position if it has fallen more than 33% from original Purchase Price
• Review and trim position if it has crossed 15% of portfolio value

▪ Blend of “Contra” and “Expected Growth at Reasonable price”


Depends on Market cycle and Opportunities
Contra Strategy: Immediate history of underperformance - Time value price
correction with Book Value growth and Business turnaround, expected earnings and
expectation build-up in price.

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Stock Selection & Elimination Process

Level I :
1. Vallum Proprietary Scoring model
2. Industry screens: Sustainable, Distress, Structurally +ve/-ve, Cyclically +ve/-ve
3. Time Value Correction of Book Value

Level II :
Forensic Check on Accounting methods

Level III :
1. Detail Evaluation of Businesses by Annual Accounts statements, conference call
Transcripts, Other Channel checks
2. Possible reach out to Industry Participants, Analyst conference call transcripts.
3. On ground Survey : We employ under graduates to do preliminary on ground surveys.
(Survey report)
4. Super Impose of Market Capitalization with Underlying business

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Investment Process I : Proprietary stock scoring model

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Process II: Distress Industry Screen Model For Business Turnarounds

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Investing and Portfolio Monitoring

• Model Portfolio Concept modified into Series approach for clients

• Differentiated Portfolios: Multiple Series for clients coming at different times.


Variation of 25-30% in stock selection and compositions likely. Likely convergence
by 12-18 months.

• Portfolio Optimization takes advantage of prices as market gives enough


opportunities to invest at the time of negative news flow.

• Starting with Conviction weights at portfolio entry time. Taking advantage of


Volatility to increase weights and gradually reach Model portfolio level.

• Time taken to deploy 60% of funds is 30-60 days. 18 months for folio to mirror
model.

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Exit Strategies

▪ Partial Selling
• When Fundamentals start to deteriorate (Delta changes) and stock weightage is high
• Appreciation in stock price triggers review of expected returns
• New Investment idea with better risk reward metrics identified
• Prefer to hold significant portion of holding after overall weights managed

▪ Complete Exit
• Investment thesis gone wrong
• Investment argument changes due to internal or external factors
• Absolutely Unfavorable risk reward after significant stock price rise

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Risk-Reward of Investing in such strategy

▪ Benefits
• Entry into stocks at Value Investor’s prices. Price risks minimized. Lower draw down
in stock prices
• Inbuilt “margin of safety” and “margin for error”
• Investment Ideas have potential to capture earning growth as well as get Rerated

▪ Risk
• Illiquid positions
• Higher Concentration Risk v/s Mutual Fund
• Investments in Relatively Unknown names : Nil-Low Institutional Ownership, Lack of
Broker coverage

Possible Outcome = Lower Draw down on prices after investment, Investee companies
with better option value, lower correlation to general market.

STRATEGY REQUIRES PATIENT INVESTORS

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Vallum has taken Differentiated Investment Decisions

2012 Championed fight for Compulsory Dividend in all companies to make mid cap
as a safer investment option. (SEBI has come out with dividend policy, recently).
2012 Stayed away from IT Industry Since 2012 due to low volume growth

2013 Make significant call to divest from Indian Real Estate (End game Report on Real
Estate)

2014 Saw dislocation in PSU Banking industry and spoke about this in the stake
holder letter for two years.
2015 Late 2014, understood changing landscape of Chinese Industry and invested
in Speciality Chemical Industry (Key Investment Decision : SRF, Balaji Amines, Bodal
Chemicals, Aarti Industries)

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Our Ideal Investors

• Understands Difference between Investment review horizon and


holding horizon.

• Will Invest money by Systematic Investment Plan rather than bulk.

• Invest for at least one business cycle of 3-5 Years.

• Understand risk reward ratio of our strategy

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Investment Strategy : Vallum Portfolio Allocation

Textiles
Portfolio Concentration
Chemicals As on 31th March 2017.
0 .8%
2.8%
3.2% Food - Proccesing - Rice
3.4%
13.2% No. of Holdings 22
Financials
3.6%
Auto Ancillaries Top 5 Holdings (%) 33.0
4.6% Fertilizers

12.8% Pharmaceuticals Top 10 Holdings (%) 57.1


4.9%
Tubes / Pipes

Consumer Durables
Total Equities (%) 97.2
5.0%
Plastic Products
Total Cash (%) 2.8
5.0% Capital Goods - Electrical
11.1%
Steel
5.1% Transmisson Line

Cement
6.0% 8.0%
7.7% Lubricants

Defence

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Liquidity
InvestmenthasPhilosophy
improved in Portfolio companies with performance

▪ Liquidity is function of familiarity of participants with business model, earnings growth


trajectory and scalability of the company.
▪ Mid market companies when get discovered by Institutional Investors witnessed better
liquidity
▪ Liquidity in most of our investee companies have improved manifold due to migration from
low institutional holding to better institutional shareholding.

Stock Date of Buying Shares Traded Date of Selling Shares Traded % increase
PI Industries 22/10/2011 12782 Holding 243428 1804%
Mayur Uniqouters 15/1/2013 5616 28/03/2014 28525 408%
Smruthi Organics 26/11/2012 1175 24/09/2014 4840 312%
Pennar Ind. 11/4/2014 259195 Holding 602841 133%
SKS Microfinance 10/2/2012 841912 Holding 1433873 70%
Srikalahasthi Pipes 15/1/2015 376642 Holding 564422 50%
Indocount Ind. 9/6/2014 74820 Holding 79480 6%
Aarti 21/08/2012 77586 17/11/14 77738 0%
Shipa Medicare 25/11/2013 15910 Holding 14868 -7%
Prism 5/3/2014 720135 27/04/15 580421 -19%
TCPL 28/4/2014 8677 Holding 5757 -34%
PRAJ 15/2/2012 1146820 31/03/2014 618769 -46%
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Stock Picks Yr 2011 – 16 ( Investing wins at Vallum)

Pesticides India (P I ) Inds.


PI INDUSTRIES has a huge and Hungry
market for its Agri – Inputs. Made 9x return
from date of purchase.
Also appeared in Outlook Business, Dec
Srikalahasthi Pipes : Made 3 x 2012
return from first investments. One of
the most cost efficient manufacturer of
Ductile Iron pipes.

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PORTFOLIO STOCKS: Performance & Hold. Period Statistics

Particulars No of Stocks

No of stocks Invested till date since inception 56

Investments held for less than 3 months 3

Investments held between 1 & 3 yrs 22

Investments held for more than 3 years* 19


* Includes open position as well

Portfolio Drawdowns No of Stocks Portfolio Top Performers No of Stocks

No of stocks with returns below -30% 5 No of stocks with returns above 400% 4

No of stocks with returns below -50% 1 No of stocks with returns above 100% 12
* Cumulative nos.

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Portfolio Metrics

Financial
P/E P/B EV / EBITDA EV / Sales Div Y % Sales G % ROE PAT G % Debt/EBIDA
Year
2011-12 7.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 1% 14% 7% 31% 1.8
2012-13 8.7 1.7 3.8 2.3 2% 22% 12% 40% 2.5
2013-14 12.0 3.2 8.5 2.8 1% 30% 18% 24% 3.1
2014-15 17.9 3.5 10.0 2.6 1% 12% 23% 43% 2.8
2015-16 24.6 3.7 12.0 2.2 1% 6% 18% 28% 1.3

Metrics PORTFOLIO

Portfolio BETA 1.1


Portfolio Turnover 32%
Sharpe Ratio 1.8

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Investment Strategy : Portfolio Matrix (Trailing 4Q Earnings)

Portfolio Valuations Earnings Performance Metrics


(as on Sep 2016 earnings) (as on Sep 2016 )

PER Weighted (x) 19.62 Revenue Growth (%) 3%


P/BV Weighted (x) 1.6 PAT Growth (%) 44%
EV/EBIDTA Weighted (x) 11.6 Return on Equity (%) 9%
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8% Net Debt/EBIDTA (x) 2.5

Weightage: Contrarian 35.5% | Growth 58.1% | Cash 6.4%

Strategy Matrix ( YoY) Contrarian Growth

P/E (x) 7.5 11.7


P/B (x) 0.4 1.2
Revenue Growth ( YoY%) 1% 4.3%
PAT Growth (YoY %) 21.0% 23.0%
Return on Equity (YoY %) 2.0% 7.0%

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PrincipalTerms
Principal Termsof
ofthe
theFund
Fund

Strategy Name : Vallum India Discovery Portfolio


▪ Fund Accounting & Custodian : IL&FS, India
▪ Scheme : Vallum India Discovery Scheme
▪ Min Suggested Time Horizon : 3 Yrs. -5 Yrs
▪ Entry Charges : Nil
▪ Lock In : Nil
▪ Details of Exit Charges : 2% if Exit in 18 months, 1.5% if Exit between 18-24 months
0.5% if Exit Between 24 to 36 months

▪ Performance Fees : Annually with high water mark (15% over hurdle rate)
▪ Hurdle : 10%
▪ Redemption : T + 5 days
▪ Asset Allocation : Equity 0-100% Debt 0-100%
▪ Investment Market Cap : Mid Caps Sales > 500 Cr., Business turnaround
▪ No of Stocks : 18-25 under normal circumstances
▪ Registration : SEBI Registered Advisory Firm

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800
Model Portfolio Performance Vallum India Discovery Year 2011 – 17
Period (as on 31st March 2017) Model Port. Performance BSE Mid Cap Value Addition
700
2011-12 1.1% 3.8% -2.7%

2012-13 6.7% -3.2% 10.0%


600 2013-14 55.5% 15.3% 40.2%
2014-15 113.7% 49.6% 64.1%
2015-16 26.8% 0.3% 26.5%
500
2016-17 51.4% 32.8% 18.6%

Since Inception (CAGR) 40.6% 13.2% 27.4%


400
*Returns are calculated on Financial Year End basis
*Returns are net of fees
*Inception date 22/10/2011
300

200

100
Portfolio
Benchma

0
October ‘11 March
34’16
Agenda
• India Growth Story : Resilient Economy
• Outlook for Asset classes
• Advantage Mid Cap Investing
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy Features
• Vallum Team

Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd. 35


InvestmentStrategy
Investment Team : Key Attributes
: Key Features

▪ Vallum Team has combined experience of more than 35 years of investing in


India between investment team. Lead people have public money management
experience and track record of more than 15 years.

▪ Vallum Team has Value bias while investing and do not chase market
momentums.

▪ At Vallum, we have complete alignment of our interest with Investor.

▪ Vallum discourages investors looking for short term opportunities. Long term
investing is the only way for wealth creation.

▪ Vallum offers merit of Promoter driven professional Investment organisation.

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Profile of Vallum’s Founders & Team

Manish Bhandari, CIIA


CEO & Principal Portfolio Manager
Manish, has more than 16 years of experience in the Indian Capital Markets and founded Vallum
Capital Advisors, investment management and advisory firm in 2010. Vallum advises clients on Indian
Equity markets investing strategy. Prior to founding Vallum, he has worked at VP & Portfolio Manager
(Equities) with ING Investment Management in India and has worked with the organization for close to
6 years between 2004-2009, managing and advising equity assets worth more than US$ 500 mn. on
behalf of ING Mutual Fund. His fund ING Domestic Opportunity and ING Dividend Yield were ranked
5 star by value research. Prior to joining ING that he has spent 5 years as Institutional analyst and
his last job as a sell side analyst was with HDFC Securities. He is regular contributor of articles to
Outlook Business, Economic Times and other newspaper in India and overseas. He also wrote a
monthly series “Charm of India” for Nikkei Business, Japan for over three years. He is Certified
International Investment Analyst (CIIA) from Switzerland and holds Post Graduate Diploma in
Business Administration.

Madhusudan Sarda, BE
Executive Director
With Entrepreneurial flair of more than 16 years & the last 10 years in the Indian capital markets
as an Investor and Advisor to mid market corporate. He is a chemical engineer by educational
qualification and has penchant for supporting entrepreneurial spirit in India. He has started his
career with Atul Ltd, a premier chemical company, thereafter worked with Mehta Equities as Head
of Research for 9 years.

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Profile of Vallum Team
Rohit Chavan (CFA level 2 Candidate)
Research Analyst
Has Completed the graduation in mechanical Engineering from Mumbai University.
Lead analyst for Process, Chemical and Retail Industry.

Ankit Shah (CFA Level 3 Candidate)


Research Analyst
Has graduated from Mumbai University with a Bachelor’s in Commerce Degree. Lead
analyst for IT, Financials

Kunal Mehta (CA, CFA Level 1)


Research Analyst
Has graduated from Mumbai University with a Bachelor’s in Commerce Degree. Lead
analyst for Textile, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals.

Surendra Bang
Dealing and Administration
Dealing experience spanning over 12 years in Indian Capital Markets in Equities,
Futures & Options. He is responsible for dealing and administrative works.

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Manish’s ING Performance Track Record

ING Dividend Yield Fund 2006-09

Fund Performance 19.9%


BSE 100 Index 11.0%
Value Addition 8.9%

ING CUB Small Cap Fund 2006-09


Fund Performance 14.2%
BSE Small Cap Index 10.2%
Value Addition 4.1%

ING Domestic Opp Fund 2006-09

Fund Performance 7.5%


BSE 100 Index* BM not
11.0%
appropriate
Value Addition -3.5%

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Founder and VALLUM CAPITAL
ADVISORS in Media
VALUENOMICS 2013

VALUENOMICS 2012
Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd. 41
Contact
Vallum Capital Team (visit us on FB/LinkedIn)
Mumbai, India
Bungalow No 36, Madhusudan Kelkar Marg,
Kalanagar, Bandra East Mumbai -51
Bandra (East), Mumbai -51
Phone : +91 22 64539772/74
Cell : +91 9820326393
Email :manish.bhandari@vallum.in

Thank You

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