Beruflich Dokumente
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Investing Strategy
Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Mumbai, India
2017
Agenda
• The India Opportunity
• Outlook for Asset Classes
• Advantage Mid Market Investing in India
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy Features
• Vallum Team
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Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Indian Opportunity post 2014
▪ Credible and lasting fiscal correction, Likely to have sustained, low and stable inflation
▪ Demonetisation, a strong effort to check slippages as well as improve the ease of doing business
▪ Macro stability even with higher US interest rates and US-dollar appreciation
Country wise Growth rate
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Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Indian Fiscal Situation well placed
▪ Demographics & Consumption : India is likely to add 170 mn workers to its labour
force till 2025, compared with 50 mn in China over the same period. By 2020 the
consuming class alone will be more than double the entire US.
▪ With Change of Government, there is return of Governance.
Population in Mn
185
Household Annual Income FY 05 FY 10 FY 20 136
92
UPA Govt. 4
withdraws DBT 1.3 1.3
before elections 2
0 0 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 YTD
Apr 13 Jul 15 -2 (0.2)
+52% YoY
CAD (LHS) CAD (as % GDP)
+11% CAGR
0 0 0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15RE FY16BE
Source: CLSA: Multiple Legs l India Strategy, Sept 15 Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. ltd. 9
Structural Positives for India in next 18 months
▪ Demonetization will lead to slump in Real Estate prices and steep decline in Gold
prices this will help in huge financial migration and productive capital formation.
▪ GST is the biggest indirect tax reform which will improve tax compliance, boost
efficiency, unleash savings for businesses & facilitate a national common market.
▪ Low inflationary scenario will aid in resetting downward trend in interest rate
cycle .
Bank
Asset Class ( Yield) Pre Tax (E/P) Property
Deposits
14.9% 57.8%
Equities – Midcap 6.0%
10 yr Sovereign Bond India 7.7% Gold
12.%
Equities – Large cap 5.0%
Real estate - Commercial 6.5%
Real estate - Residential 2.5% HOUSEHOLD ASSETS:
US$ 6.4 tn
Gold NIL
▪ Macro Theme very powerful for India: Indian GDP propels over 7-9% p.a. middle
market companies are likely to do better. In chaos, mid markets companies have
become cheaper for India, while their growth rate propel faster than large cap
universe.
▪ Migration to Financial Assets, in absence of return from physical assets like Gold
and Property , is leading to domestic Investors having started to invest in equity
markets after gap of 7 years.
▪ Most of large cap have significant business in overseas market and sub par
overseas growth will also impact their business. E.g. : Top 100 companies have
around 40%+ revenue from overseas markets. Middle market companies good
proxy of India growth story.
▪ Large cap space crowded and dominated by Mutual fund, Insurance Ulips, FIIs
and over owned. Middle market companies under owned by investors .
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Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. ltd.
Investment Philosophy
▪ Fundamental Investing
• Buying Quality Businesses at a reasonable Price
• Having Edge? - Information, Cycle, Macro Evaluation
• No insider information, No technicals
▪ Process Orientation
• Stock selection and elimination
• Stock and Portfolio Monitoring
• Selling: Partial and Complete
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Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. ltd.
Investment Strategy
▪ Key Criteria’s
• Investing in 20-25 business opportunities. Sales > Rs 500 Crs
• No Stock More than 6% and less than 3% of portfolio while investing
• No Sector more than 25% of portfolio
• Multi Cap
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Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. ltd.
Stock Selection & Elimination Process
Level I :
1. Vallum Proprietary Scoring model
2. Industry screens: Sustainable, Distress, Structurally +ve/-ve, Cyclically +ve/-ve
3. Time Value Correction of Book Value
Level II :
Forensic Check on Accounting methods
Level III :
1. Detail Evaluation of Businesses by Annual Accounts statements, conference call
Transcripts, Other Channel checks
2. Possible reach out to Industry Participants, Analyst conference call transcripts.
3. On ground Survey : We employ under graduates to do preliminary on ground surveys.
(Survey report)
4. Super Impose of Market Capitalization with Underlying business
• Time taken to deploy 60% of funds is 30-60 days. 18 months for folio to mirror
model.
▪ Partial Selling
• When Fundamentals start to deteriorate (Delta changes) and stock weightage is high
• Appreciation in stock price triggers review of expected returns
• New Investment idea with better risk reward metrics identified
• Prefer to hold significant portion of holding after overall weights managed
▪ Complete Exit
• Investment thesis gone wrong
• Investment argument changes due to internal or external factors
• Absolutely Unfavorable risk reward after significant stock price rise
▪ Benefits
• Entry into stocks at Value Investor’s prices. Price risks minimized. Lower draw down
in stock prices
• Inbuilt “margin of safety” and “margin for error”
• Investment Ideas have potential to capture earning growth as well as get Rerated
▪ Risk
• Illiquid positions
• Higher Concentration Risk v/s Mutual Fund
• Investments in Relatively Unknown names : Nil-Low Institutional Ownership, Lack of
Broker coverage
Possible Outcome = Lower Draw down on prices after investment, Investee companies
with better option value, lower correlation to general market.
2012 Championed fight for Compulsory Dividend in all companies to make mid cap
as a safer investment option. (SEBI has come out with dividend policy, recently).
2012 Stayed away from IT Industry Since 2012 due to low volume growth
2013 Make significant call to divest from Indian Real Estate (End game Report on Real
Estate)
2014 Saw dislocation in PSU Banking industry and spoke about this in the stake
holder letter for two years.
2015 Late 2014, understood changing landscape of Chinese Industry and invested
in Speciality Chemical Industry (Key Investment Decision : SRF, Balaji Amines, Bodal
Chemicals, Aarti Industries)
Textiles
Portfolio Concentration
Chemicals As on 31th March 2017.
0 .8%
2.8%
3.2% Food - Proccesing - Rice
3.4%
13.2% No. of Holdings 22
Financials
3.6%
Auto Ancillaries Top 5 Holdings (%) 33.0
4.6% Fertilizers
Consumer Durables
Total Equities (%) 97.2
5.0%
Plastic Products
Total Cash (%) 2.8
5.0% Capital Goods - Electrical
11.1%
Steel
5.1% Transmisson Line
Cement
6.0% 8.0%
7.7% Lubricants
Defence
Stock Date of Buying Shares Traded Date of Selling Shares Traded % increase
PI Industries 22/10/2011 12782 Holding 243428 1804%
Mayur Uniqouters 15/1/2013 5616 28/03/2014 28525 408%
Smruthi Organics 26/11/2012 1175 24/09/2014 4840 312%
Pennar Ind. 11/4/2014 259195 Holding 602841 133%
SKS Microfinance 10/2/2012 841912 Holding 1433873 70%
Srikalahasthi Pipes 15/1/2015 376642 Holding 564422 50%
Indocount Ind. 9/6/2014 74820 Holding 79480 6%
Aarti 21/08/2012 77586 17/11/14 77738 0%
Shipa Medicare 25/11/2013 15910 Holding 14868 -7%
Prism 5/3/2014 720135 27/04/15 580421 -19%
TCPL 28/4/2014 8677 Holding 5757 -34%
PRAJ 15/2/2012 1146820 31/03/2014 618769 -46%
Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd. 28
Stock Picks Yr 2011 – 16 ( Investing wins at Vallum)
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Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
PORTFOLIO STOCKS: Performance & Hold. Period Statistics
Particulars No of Stocks
No of stocks with returns below -30% 5 No of stocks with returns above 400% 4
No of stocks with returns below -50% 1 No of stocks with returns above 100% 12
* Cumulative nos.
Financial
P/E P/B EV / EBITDA EV / Sales Div Y % Sales G % ROE PAT G % Debt/EBIDA
Year
2011-12 7.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 1% 14% 7% 31% 1.8
2012-13 8.7 1.7 3.8 2.3 2% 22% 12% 40% 2.5
2013-14 12.0 3.2 8.5 2.8 1% 30% 18% 24% 3.1
2014-15 17.9 3.5 10.0 2.6 1% 12% 23% 43% 2.8
2015-16 24.6 3.7 12.0 2.2 1% 6% 18% 28% 1.3
Metrics PORTFOLIO
▪ Performance Fees : Annually with high water mark (15% over hurdle rate)
▪ Hurdle : 10%
▪ Redemption : T + 5 days
▪ Asset Allocation : Equity 0-100% Debt 0-100%
▪ Investment Market Cap : Mid Caps Sales > 500 Cr., Business turnaround
▪ No of Stocks : 18-25 under normal circumstances
▪ Registration : SEBI Registered Advisory Firm
200
100
Portfolio
Benchma
0
October ‘11 March
34’16
Agenda
• India Growth Story : Resilient Economy
• Outlook for Asset classes
• Advantage Mid Cap Investing
• Investment Philosophy & Strategy Features
• Vallum Team
▪ Vallum Team has Value bias while investing and do not chase market
momentums.
▪ Vallum discourages investors looking for short term opportunities. Long term
investing is the only way for wealth creation.
Madhusudan Sarda, BE
Executive Director
With Entrepreneurial flair of more than 16 years & the last 10 years in the Indian capital markets
as an Investor and Advisor to mid market corporate. He is a chemical engineer by educational
qualification and has penchant for supporting entrepreneurial spirit in India. He has started his
career with Atul Ltd, a premier chemical company, thereafter worked with Mehta Equities as Head
of Research for 9 years.
Surendra Bang
Dealing and Administration
Dealing experience spanning over 12 years in Indian Capital Markets in Equities,
Futures & Options. He is responsible for dealing and administrative works.
VALUENOMICS 2012
Vallum Capital Advisors Pvt. Ltd. 41
Contact
Vallum Capital Team (visit us on FB/LinkedIn)
Mumbai, India
Bungalow No 36, Madhusudan Kelkar Marg,
Kalanagar, Bandra East Mumbai -51
Bandra (East), Mumbai -51
Phone : +91 22 64539772/74
Cell : +91 9820326393
Email :manish.bhandari@vallum.in
Thank You
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