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Short-Term Operational Forecasting

for Urban Water Consumption

Prepared by: Prepared for:

March 2001
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page

1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. WATER DEMAND FORECASTING SYSTEM 2
2.1 EVALUATION OF DEMAND FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES 3
2.2 WATER DEMAND FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES 4
2.3 ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSUMPTION DATA: MOON LAKE TREATMENT
PLANT 5
2.4 FORECASTING RESULTS 8
2.5 SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE IMPLEMENTATION 13
3. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 14
4. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH/MODELING NEEDS 15
5. SCOPE AND BUDGET 15
6. REFERENCES 20

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page
1 Classification of Exponential Smoothing Techniques 6
2 Recorded Daily and Monthly Average Water Consumption (in MGD)
at Moon Lake Water Treatment Plant 7
3 Observed and Forecasted Monthly Average Water Consumption
at Moon Lake WTP 8
4 Scatter Plot of Observed and Forecasted Monthly Average
Water Consumption Values 9
5 Observed and Forecasted Daily Water Consumption at Moon Lake WTP 11
6 Scatter Plot of Observed and Forecasted Daily Water Consumption Values 11
7 Residual Distribution and Expected Normal Density Function for
Regression Analysis of Daily Water Consumption Values 12
8 Maximum and Minimum Forecasted Daily Water Consumption in 1999 13

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Statement of Work
Tampa Bay Water Demand Forecasting System

1. INTRODUCTION

Tampa Bay Water is Florida’s largest wholesale water supplier. Tampa Bay Water’s member
governments – Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties and the cities of New Port Richey, St.
Petersburg and Tampa – serve more than 1.8 million residents in the Tampa Bay region. The
mission of Tampa Bay Water is to provide its members with reliable supplies of high-quality water
to meet present and future needs in an environmentally and economically sound manner.

Tampa Bay Water currently operates twelve wellfields. Eleven of these wellfields are operated as
an integrated system under the Optimized Regional Operations Plan (OROP). Current plans call
for the addition of new water supply sources and facilities to the existing system for the primary
purpose of meeting projected water demands for the 2003-2006 timeframe, and to replace existing
water supplies lost as a result of reducing overall production from the eleven integrated system
wellfields. These new sources will include limited new groundwater development, surface water,
desalted brackish water, and desalted seawater. A large off-line reservoir is also to be included in
the system.

The coordinated operation of these wellfields is guided by an operational optimization model that
determines the pumping rates required to satisfy forecasted demands at eleven points of
connection while emphasizing that the environmental impacts are minimized. Optimized
production planning is conducted every two weeks but is expected to change such that shorter-
time forecasts are made. The accuracy of forecasted demand for short time periods (e.g., one to
two days, one week, etc.) is essential for providing reliable water supply solutions and meet
contractual obligations. The following section outlines the requirements of the Water Demand
Forecasting System (WDFS) including data needs, implemented algorithms, and forecasting
evaluation tools. The WDFS is expected to be one of the software modules employed by a
Decision Support System (DSS). Integrating database, analysis software modules, and a
graphical user interface, the DSS is described in another statement of work.

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2. WATER DEMAND FORECASTING SYSTEM

The objective of this statement of work is to describe a water demand forecasting system (WDFS)
that will provide accurate short-term forecasts at each of the eleven points of connection as well as
total regional water demand. Since water consumption depends on factors that could only be
predicted in a probabilistic sense, the WDFS must recognize these factors and generate stochastic
demand predictions. Ideally, the WDFS will provide full characterization of the cumulative
distribution function for future demands. Furthermore, while the underlying physical processes
(e.g., weather) are usually assumed to be statistically stationary, this is not the case for water
demand forecasts. Water demands depend on both people and nature. Therefore, the WDFS
must be capable of continuously updating the relationships between demand and weather
conditions to reflect recent trends.

The current OROP employs bi-weekly and monthly demand forecasts. However, Tampa Bay
Water has identified the need for shorter-term forecasts that will be utilized for operational
purposes. Particularly, the WDFS must provide daily and bi-daily forecasts.

To summarize, The WDFS must have the following properties:


1. Forecast daily water demands in each of the eleven connection points and for the total
service area.
2. Capability to aggregate demand forecasts to daily, bi-daily, weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, and
annual averages.
3. Capability to select historical or forecast weather as a basis for water demand forecasts
over a specified time horizon.
4. Provide an archive of historical weather data and the graphical interface to view, edit, and
adjust these data to facilitate demand forecast sensitivity analysis. Edited data should be
flagged as such before saving back to the database.
5. Provide capability to update and to save actual weather data and weather forecasts.
6. Provide capability for continuous updating of the utilized models in order to reflect the most
recent trends in water consumption.

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2.1 EVALUATION OF DEMAND FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES

Each potential demand forecasting method should be evaluated by using it to predict water
demands for the climatic conditions of the year 2000. Generally, a longer evaluation record is
preferred but the amount of reliable data available for the WDFS is limited (starting in October
1991). The data for 2000 should not be used in the development of the method. The reliability of
the forecast should be evaluated for the various points of connection, water demand areas, and
the total service area for time increments of days, weeks and months for different seasons of the
year, and for the annual total. The evaluation should be carried out by graphical plots of forecast
vs. observed, time series plots, and relevant statistical measures (e.g., correlation coefficient,
residual analyses, Theil’s U, Durbin-Watson statistic).

Preliminary evaluation of water consumption data at the Moon Lake Water Treatment Plant (WTP)
(formerly known as Little Road WTP) in western Pasco county connection point has been carried
out to:
• identify potential forecasting methodologies,
• identify potential data needs,
• illustrate the required properties of the WDFS, and
• illustrate the evaluation of demand forecasting methodologies.
This evaluation utilized a two-step set of models representing the effects of four factors on water
use; namely trend, seasonality, autocorrelation, and climatic correlation. First, monthly average
water use was evaluated to identify the trend and seasonality factors. Second, daily deviation
from the monthly average was modeled based on autocorrelation and climatic correlation factors.
This method combines several approaches that have been successfully implemented to forecast
urban water demand at other cities including Melbourne, Australia (Zhou, et al., 2000), Arlington,
Texas (Homwongs et al., 1994), Victoria, British Columbia (Kenward and Howard, 1998), and
several other U.S. cities (Maidment et al., 1986 and Saleba, 1985). The following sections explain
the utilized models, their rationale, and application results.

Available data from the water treatment plant is water consumption data. Water demand is a
theoretical concept that is not directly observed or measured. Demand may differ from
consumption because of past inability to meet demand, effects of rate changes, and water
consumption management policies. For example, water demand curtailment policies could be
implemented to reduce actual water consumption from the demand values requested by a

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municipality. The following preliminary evaluation utilized water consumption data directly. That
is, the data was not adjusted to calculate water demands. Generally, some preprocessing of the
consumption data will likely be necessary to isolate these effects before the data are used to
develop the demand forecasting method. Past studies elsewhere have shown that per capita
water demands depend on long-term evolution and trends in water consumption, seasonally
dependant use of water, and daily weather factors. As a minimum, the following data are required
to adjust water consumption data:
• A long record of water consumption (at least five to six years), and the coincident daily
precipitation, and maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity. Potentially
daily average wind speed can be required,
• The record of significant consumer rate changes and times when temporary curtailment of
water use was requested,
• Dates and amounts of major changes in the water supply and distribution system, and
• Dates and measures of the effects of climate perturbations on local weather.

2.2 WATER DEMAND FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES

Water consumption varies widely over time. Several factors combine to explain this variability
including socioeconomic factors (e.g., population growth, demographics, and rate structures),
seasonal factors (e.g., winter vs. summer), daily climatic factors (e.g., precipitation, temperature,
and relative humidity), and day-to-day activities (e.g., weekday vs. weekend). Several approaches
have been used to forecast urban water demand. Saleba (1985) classified these approaches into
three major categories:
• End use forecasting,
• Econometric forecasting, and
• Time series forecasting.

End use forecasting uses specific water use data for the population of interest. While requiring
large amounts of data, this approach has shown little success in application. This lack of success
lead many researchers to econometric forecasting and time series forecasting. Econometric
forecasting is based on the identification of historical relationships (econometric models) between
water use (response variable) and socioeconomic and environmental factors (explanatory
variables). Once these relationships are established, they are assumed to hold into the future and
are used to forecast water use based on forecasts of the explanatory variables. Finally, the most-

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widely used time series forecasting depends on the direct identification of the patterns existing in
the water consumption data.

Based on literature review and the requirements of Tampa Bay Water for the water demand
forecasting system (WDFS), an approach was adopted based on time-series forecasting
supplemented by climatologic factors correlation. The idea is to isolate the long-term trend
components (weather independent) then identify the broad seasonal variability (dependent on
general weather patterns rather than day-to-day weather variability). Once these two components
are identified, the residual is modeled based on autocorrelation (short term) and correlation with
recent weather variability. The considered weather factors included, minimum and maximum
temperature, precipitation, minimum and maximum relative humidity, wind speed, and pan
evaporation. These data were obtained from the Tampa International Airport weather station
(maintained by NOAA).

2.3 ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSUMPTION DATA: MOON LAKE TREATMENT PLANT

The applied methodology follows a two-step approach. In the first step, the trend and seasonality
components of the time series are forecasted using an exponential smoothing method applied to
time-averaged water consumption data. Both weekly and monthly averaged demand values were
evaluated using few exponential smoothing algorithms. These algorithms are based on three
smoothing steps; overall smoothing, trend smoothing, and seasonal smoothing. The trend could
be modeled using linear, exponential or saturated growth models. Seasonality could either be
additive or multiplicative. Figure 1 shows the potential combinations of trend and seasonality. For
example, the Winters’ method assumes multiplicative seasonality and a linear trend.

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FIGURE 1. Classification of Exponential Smoothing Techniques

For the Moon Lake WTP data (shown in Figure 2), a multiplicative seasonal component always
provided better answers (more accurate forecasts). However, it could be seen from Figure 2 that
the data does not display any clear trend pattern except for an abnormal low consumption period
within the first year. A no-trend model was accurate after the first year was excluded from the
analysis. However, a saturated-growth trend model was the best model for the entire record.
Therefore, average monthly water demand forecasting was based on a saturated-growth trend
model with multiplicative seasonal factors.

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FIGURE 2. Recorded Daily and Monthly Average Water Consumption (in MGD) at Moon Lake
Water Treatment Plant.

Figure 2 shows that daily water consumption varies significantly around the monthly average
values. The second step in the applied methodology predicts these daily deviation values based
on (1) autocorrelation and (2) correlation with meteorological factors. Three types of
autocorrelation were evaluated:
• Long-term autocorrelation (annual),
• Short-term autocorrelation (weekly), and
• Memory autocorrelation (correlation between similar consecutive days).
The Moon Lake WTP data displayed no long-term autocorrelation, perhaps because of the short
record. However significant autocorrelation was found at the weekly interval. In other words,
water consumption over the same day of the week were correlated. Furthermore, water
consumption between consecutive days (memory effects) were correlated after separating
weekdays from weekends.

Several meteorological variables were evaluated for significant correlation with daily deviations
from monthly average values. Both daily recorded values as well as moving averages over three
to seven days were considered. The evaluated variables are daily recorded values of:
• Minimum, maximum, and average temperature
• Minimum, maximum, and average relative humidity

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• Precipitation
• Average Wind Speed

2.4 FORECASTING RESULTS

The first step of the applied methodology is to forecast monthly average demands. Figures 3 and
4 show a comparison between observed and forecasted values. With a simple correlation
coefficient of 0.97 and Theil’s U of 0.29, the model captures the seasonal and trend components
accurately. Only the first six years were used for model initialization (estimating seasonal factors
and model parameters). The model predictions between Jan. 97 and Dec. 99 are indicative of the
model’s predictive power.

Calibration Period Verification Period


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Monthly Avearge Water
Consumption (MGD)

12
Observed
Forecasted
8

4
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99

FIGURE 3. Observed and Forecasted Monthly Average Water Consumption at Moon Lake WTP.

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Forecasted 16

12 R2 = 0.9013

4
4 8 12 16
Observed

Calibration Period Verification Period


FIGURE 4. Scatter Plot of Observed and Forecasted Monthly Average
Water Consumption Values.

After an accurate model was established for average monthly values, daily deviations from
monthly average water consumption were evaluated using regression analysis based on
autocorrelation and correlation with meteorological variables. A multiple regression model was
setup using the following explanatory variables:
• Lagged daily deviation (from monthly average) for one week and one year,
• Previous similar one-day lagged daily deviation,
• Daily precipitation amount,
• Moving average (3-day and 7-day) precipitation,
• Number of days since last precipitation,
• Maximum daily temperature,
• Moving average (3-day and 7-day) maximum daily temperature,
• Average daily temperature,
• Moving average (3-day and 7-day) average daily temperature,
• Maximum daily relative humidity,
• Moving average (3-day and 7-day) maximum daily relative humidity
• Minimum daily relative humidity,
• Moving average (3-day and 7-day) minimum daily relative humidity,
• Average daily relative humidity, and
• Moving average (3-day and 7-day) average daily relative humidity.

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All the considered variables were checked for correlation with daily deviations using stepwise
regression and a series of Box-Cox transformations. In general, daily water consumption
deviations were much more correlated with short-term moving averages (3-day) than with 7-day
moving average values and daily values for meteorological variables. Similarly, daily water
consumption deviations’ autocorrelation was much more pronounced for short lags (one and
seven days) than for long lags (one year). Using the first six years of data for model fitting, the
final regression model had a correlation coefficient of about 0.86 with a Theil’s U value of about
0.7 and included the variables shown in the following table.

Percent
Regression Std. Err. Contribution
Explanatory Variable Transformation Coefficient Of Reg. to
Coeff. Correlation
One-week lagged daily deviation X 0.73 0.03 19.5
X * |X| -0.12 0.01 15.2
Previous similar one-day lagged daily deviation X 0.13 0.03 19.4
X * |X| 0.07 0.01 18.1
Three-day moving average of daily precipitation Log(1+X) -0.49 0.05 10.8
Number of days since last precipitation Log(1+X) 0.22 0.08 10.1
Three-day moving avg. of average daily temp. Log(X) -2.68 0.46 5.4
Average daily relative humidity Log(X) 2.66 0.40 1.3

Model prediction accuracy between Jan. 97 and Dec. 99 (the validation period) was very similar to
that of the fitting period. The daily forecasting model explains about 70% of the variability of daily
consumption values. The unexplained 30% is assumed to be random and could only be
forecasted in a stochastic sense. Clearly, a random component is present for daily consumption
values and no highly accurate predictions should be expected from a deterministic model. The
motivation for the above methodology is that this random component should be eliminated when
monthly average values were calculated. Furthermore, using meteorological variables for the daily
model allows a stochastic evaluation of forecasted demands using an ensemble of possible
meteorological conditions. Figures 5 and 6 show observed and forecasted daily water
consumption values for the entire record. Consistent with the underlying statistical model, Figure 7
shows that the residuals from the regression model follow a normal distribution.

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16 Calibration Verification

12

4
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99

Daily Consum ption Daily Fore ca st

FIGURE 5. Observed and Forecasted Daily Water Consumption at Moon Lake WTP.

16
2
Forecasted

R = 0.6745
12

4
4 8 12 16
Observed

Calibration Period Verification Period

FIGURE 6. Scatter Plot of Observed and Forecasted Daily Water Consumption Values.

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FIGURE 7. Residual Distribution and Expected Normal Density Function for
Regression Analysis of Daily Water Consumption Values.

To forecast stochastic consumption values, several ensembles of possible future meteorological


values could be utilized. For each ensemble, one set of forecasted demands is generated. The
empirical distribution function of future daily water consumption is then constructed by sorting the
forecasted consumption values for each day. The methodology does not depend on the specific
forecasting technique used to generate possible future meteorological values. To illustrate the
approach, daily meteorological values recorded between 1984 and 1998 are used to predict daily
values for 1999 and water consumption values are forecasted (relative humidity data was not
available before 1984 at the utilized weather station). Figure 8 shows minimum, maximum, and
average forecasted daily consumption for 1999. Longer weather records or probabilistically-
generated records could be used to evaluate the entire distribution function or a specific percentile.

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FIGURE 8. Maximum and Minimum Forecasted Daily Water Consumption in 1999.

2.5 SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE IMPLEMENTATION


After the evaluation of possible methodologies is accomplished and an approach is selected, the
WDFS will be implemented using an ANSI language (e.g., C++). Different compilations of the
demand forecasting modules (e.g., DLL, ActiveX) will be used to link these modules to the
graphical user interface (GUI) within Tampa Bay Water’s Water Resources Decision Support
System. The software implementation must follow these guidelines:
• The development project shall be managed using industry-standard application
development project management, with the vendor designating a Project Manager, and
Tampa Bay Water designating a Customer Project Manager, who will interact with each
other on all project issues.
• The application will be written using industry standard-methods for application development
(subject to Tampa Bay Water technical review/approval), including modularity, a two-tiered
architecture, industry-standard computer language (Visual Basic using an object-oriented
approach preferred), user-developer team testing, change management, and thorough
documentation (technical as well as user).
• The application will be implemented on a Microsoft/Intel platform, specifically, Windows
2000 SERVER for servers, Windows 2000 PRO for PC clients, and using a client/server
architecture.
• Microsoft SQL Server 2000 will be used as the database management system to store and
manage the application’s data in a relational database. Detailed database schema
documentation, using an industry-standard tool (e.g. ERwin) will be a deliverable.

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• The application will be integrated with the Tampa Bay Water Decision Support System
(which is currently in the Approval phase) using an industry-standard interface architecture
(to be determined jointly by Tampa Bay Water, the Demand Forecast vendor, and the
Decision Support System vendor).
• Microsoft Visual SourceSafe will be used as the source code control system. All developed
source code will be a deliverable to Tampa Bay Water.

3. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The results clearly show that the outlined approach can be effectively used to forecast monthly
and daily water consumption. This approach could be easily implemented for other points of
connection, planning areas, and total demand values. It is recommended that the outlined
approach be used to forecast monthly and daily water consumption for the points of connection
used by the OROP program for forecasting weekly or bi-weekly production schedules.

The weather data used for the above analysis was obtained from the weather station at Tampa
International Airport. It is recommended that other available weather data (ideally with longer
records) should be considered and evaluated for applicability at different points of connection and
for total service area demand values. Furthermore, more accurate weather prediction approaches
could be implemented to generate more accurate stochastic demand forecasts. It must be noted
that the above approach only uses short-term weather forecasts (one to three days). The
accuracy of this approach is highest when only one day is forecasted each time and newly
collected weather and demand data are immediately added to the database.

Forecasting weekly average demand values using all possible smoothing algorithms was not very
successful. The smallest Theil’s U value was about 0.9 indicating that a naive forecast (next
week’s value is forecasted to be this week’s observed value) appears to be as accurate as the
smoothing algorithm. It is not clear whether weekly average values can be estimated directly
based on historic demand values alone or whether some dependence on meteorological factors
and randomness must be considered. It is recommended that forecasting weekly average
demand values not be considered as an approach to forecasting short-term demands for use
within the OROP.

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4. ADDITIONAL RESEARCH/MODELING NEEDS
The conversion of water consumption data into water demand data should be evaluated and, if
found feasible then implemented. Then, other forecasting methods including pattern recognition
techniques, decomposition techniques, and ARIMA models (including Box Jenkins) could be
evaluated along with the above smoothing and regression techniques. It is recommended that
investigation and evaluation of water demand data be conducted as Phase III of this effort.

5. SCOPE AND BUDGET


The WDFS will be developed over a period of about six to ten months. This development will be
accomplished over two phases. During the first phase, water consumption data will be collected
and evaluated for each point of connection along with the relevant meteorological data and water
demand management policies and rate structures. Then, evaluation of water demand (or
consumption) will be carried out and forecasting techniques will be applied and evaluated for each
point of connection and for total water demand. In phase 2, the WDFS will be implemented as a
component of the Tampa Bay Water’s Water Resources Decision support system (DSS) with the
appropriate input/output specifications as required by the DSS structure.

Evaluating the effect of water use restrictions and other water conservation measures on actual
water consumption will be pursued in a separate phase (Phase III). The following pages include
detailed description of the tasks required to complete each phase followed by approximate time
and budget requirements.

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Task 1: Relevant Data Collection
This task involves the collection of water consumption values and relevant weather data for each
point of connection. The collected data includes:
• Daily water consumption values, and
• Relevant daily meteorological data from all representative water stations. The required
daily data is precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, minimum and maximum
relative humidity, wind speed, and pan evaporation.

After the data is collected, data gaps must be filled for daily meteorological and water consumption
data and the entire data sets must be evaluated for quality control. These checks include
evaluation of point values for significant deviation from normal or average values. For example,
maximum temperature during any day in July is expected to be within a certain range.
The collected data will be arranged into a database. The database documentation must indicate
data sources, QA/QC procedures, filled data gaps, and the method(s) used to fill those gaps.

Task 2: Evaluation of Forecasting Methodologies


This task involves the evaluation of possible short-term forecasting methodologies for each of the
11 points of connection as well as for Tampa Bay Water’s total water demand using the
techniques outlined in this evaluation. It is expected that different forecasting algorithms could be
needed for different points of connection. This evaluation must include a rigorous evaluation of
considered forecasting methodologies including graphical plots of forecasted vs. observed, time
series plots, and relevant statistical measures (e.g., correlation coefficient, residual analyses,
Theil’s U, Durbin-Watson statistic).

Task 3: Application of Forecasting Methodologies


This task involves the application of the best short-term forecasting methodologies that were
identified in task 2 for each point of connection and total water demand. Application results must
include forecast water demand values as required by the Optimized Regional Operations Plan
(OROP) and Tampa Bay Water’s Water Resource Decision Support System (DSS).

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Task 4: Software Prototype Development
This task involves the development of software prototype for implementation of the water demand
forecasting system (WDFS). The WDFS will enable users to:
• Access database and perform various analyses on underlying data,
• Forecast long-term and short-term water demand, and
• Evaluate accuracy of the implemented demand forecasting methodologies.

Development of the prototype includes the development of screen shots of the graphical user
interface including input screens, dialogues, database access routines, and output presentation.
The WDFS prototype will be presented to Tampa Bay Water staff and their feedback will be used
to enhance the user interface.

Task 5: Software and Interface Development


This task involves the development of software modules and documentation for both the graphical
user interface and the forecasting modules. The development will follow the prototype established
in Task 4 except as requested or approved by Tampa Bay Water staff. The software
implementation must follow these guidelines:
• The development project shall be managed using industry-standard application
development project management, with the vendor designating a Project Manager, and
Tampa Bay Water designating a Customer Project Manager, who will interact with each
other on all project issues.
• The application will be written using industry standard-methods for application development
(subject to Tampa Bay Water technical review/approval), including modularity, a two-tiered
architecture, industry-standard computer language (Visual Basic using an object-oriented
approach preferred), user-developer team testing, change management, and thorough
documentation (technical as well as user).
• The application will be implemented on a Microsoft/Intel platform, specifically, Windows
2000 SERVER for servers, Windows 2000 PRO for PC clients, and using a client/server
architecture.
• Microsoft SQL Server 2000 will be used as the database management system to store and
manage the application’s data in a relational database. Detailed database schema
documentation, using an industry-standard tool (e.g. ERwin) will be a deliverable.
• The application will be integrated with the Tampa Bay Water Decision Support System
(which is currently in the Approval phase) using an industry-standard interface architecture

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(to be determined jointly by Tampa Bay Water, the Demand Forecast vendor, and the
Decision Support System vendor).
• Microsoft Visual SourceSafe will be used as the source code control system. All developed
source code will be a deliverable to Tampa Bay Water.
• Standard (e.g., ANSI) language for the computational modules.

The developed software will be delivered for at least one month of testing by Tampa Bay Water
staff and the staff comments will be implemented in the final software version.

Task 6: Annual Maintenance and Evaluation


Evaluation and maintenance of the WDFS should be carried out on an annual or bi-annual basis.
The evaluation must include rigorous quantification and presentation of forecasting algorithms
performance. Software maintenance will be needed to maintain software integrity, handle
operating system and compiler upgrade issues, fix reported problems, and add users-required
features. This task also involves preparation of a report describing any software changes,
evaluation results, and recommendations whenever needed.

Approximate Budget
Phase No. Task Time Range Estimate
(Weeks)
1 Relevant Data Collection 4–6 $30,000
2 Evaluation of Forecasting Methodologies 6–8 $40,000
1 3 Application of Forecasting Methodologies 3–5 $30,000

4 Software Prototype Development 3–5 $20,000


2 5 Software and Interface Development 6–8 $45,000
6 Annual Evaluation and Maintenance 3–5 $25,000
Total (does not include annual evaluation and maintenance) 22 – 32 $165,000

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PHASE III – Relationships Between Water Consumption and Demand (This effort will be
solicited separately)

Water consumption is affected by several operational conservation programs, consumer


conservation programs, rate structure, and ordinances developed by local governments to
encourage efficient water consumption. In this phase, the relationships between actual water
consumption and different demand management practices will be investigated. The objective is to
develop a quantitative understanding of how water conservation plans and other demand
management practices affect actual consumption. To a great extent, this phase will depend on the
amount of data available for analysis.

Task 1: Relevant Data Collection


This task will involve an exploration effort to collect available relevant data. The collected data
includes all the data collected during Phase I and:
• Major water demand management policies such as:
o Timing, description, and enforcement practices of water use restrictions including
both operational practices, consumer conservation programs, and local water use
ordinances, and
o Formal and anecdotal information related to water consumption responses to water
use restrictions.
• Significant changes in consumer rate structures.

Task 2: Investigation of Available Data


This task involves the investigation of whether sufficient data is available to develop a quantitative
understanding of how water use restrictions affect actual water consumption. It is not clear at this
stage whether sufficient data is available for such evaluation. If the conclusion is that available
data is not sufficient, this task will involve the development of an action plan (including a timeline)
that will result in obtaining the necessary data over time.

Task 3: Convert Consumption Data to Demand


This task is conditional of the Task 2 findings. If these findings show that available data is
sufficient, this task will involve the evaluation of the effects of major rate changes and water use
restrictions on water consumption. This evaluation will then be used to convert water consumption

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data to demand values. Furthermore, the results from this evaluation must provide quatitative
tools that could be used for evaluation of:
• Effects of future demand management policies, and
• Water demand curve (price vs. demand).

6. REFERENCES

Homwongs, C., Sastri, T., and Foster III, J.W., Adaptive Forecasting of Hourly Municipal Water
Consumption, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 120(6), 888-
905,1994.

Kenward, T.C. and Howard, C.D.D., Forecasting for Urban Water Demand Management, 26th
Annual ASCE Conference on Water Resources Planning and Management, Tempe, Arizona, June
1998.

Maidment, D.R. and Miaou, S.P., Daily water Use in Nine Cities, Water Resources Research,
22(6), 845-851,1986.

Saleba, G.S., Water Demand Forecasting, Proceedings of AWWA Seminar on Demand


Forecasting and Financial Risk Assessment, Denver, Colorado, 1985.

Shvarster, L., Shamir, U., and Feldman, M., Forecasting Hourly Water Demands by Pattern
Recognition Apprach, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 119(6), 611-
627, 1993.

Zhou, S.L., McMahon, T.A., Walton, A., and Lewis, J., Forecasting Daily Urban Water Demand: A
Case Study of Melbourne, Journal of Hydrology, 236, 153-164, 2000.

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