2008 INFOCOMM TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

About iN2015
1. Intelligent Nation 2015 (iN2015) is Singapore’s 10-year masterplan to help us
realise the potential of infocomm over the next decade. Led by the Infocomm
Development Authority of Singapore (IDA), iN2015 is a multi-agency effort that is
the result of private, public and people sector co-creation.

Technology Trends observed by iN2015

2. The iN2015 Committee made a number of assumptions about technology
developments and based their forecast of future ICT trends on the following trend
laws summarized below.

ICT Trend Laws Definition

1 Moore's Law Computing Power doubles every 18-24 months
2 Disk Law Storage doubles every 12 months
3 Fibre Law Communications doubles every 9 months
4 Metcalfe's Law Value of a network increases by the square of no. of devices
connected to it
5 Community Law Content increases by 2x , with x being the number of people

3. According to these laws, IDA visualizes that there will be 3 infocomm

revolutions, namely (i)Communications, (ii)Computing and (iii)Sentient waves. They
also believe that each will play a critical role in realizing iN2015.1

1Source: iN2015 Main Report pages 43-45

Technology trends on the Local Scale

4. From broadband to the home to broadband to the person. It is now

technologically possible for an individual to experience true broadband connectivity
in parks and even on public transports.

Example 1 - A first in Singapore and Asia Pacific, Nokia Wifi Zone provides
free internet surfing on 12 SBS buses with high-speed broadband wireless
internet connection are now trawling our streets.

Example 2 – The 2 in Singapore, with at least one computer at home has

reached 79% in 2007. In the most recent iN2015 update, IDA also reports that
92 per cent of homes with school-going children own computers in 2007.

Example 3 – In a June 08 Gartner report, Singapore was reported to be tops in

Asia-Pac PC penetration by 2012 with a penetration rate of 948 PCs to every 1000
people using it for mobile applications, communication, accessing the Internet
and posting user-generated content. In addition to that, the report estimates that
total number of PCs in use worldwide has exceeded one billion and should hit
the two billion mark by 2014.

Example 4 – In the recently released IDA telecomms statistics, mobile phone

penetration is at 130.6 per cent in April 2008. 3G subscriptions have reached
about 1.99 million in April 2008.

2 Source:
http://www.ida.gov.sg/doc/Publications/Publications_Level2/20061205092557/ASInfocommUsageHseholds07.pdf
 3 G M o b ile S u b s c r ip tio n s , 2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 8

N u m b e r o f S u b s c r ip tio n s 2 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
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5. From entry-level(1Mbps) broadband to real(10Mbps) broadband As

applications get more sophisticated and consumers' expectations grow, 1Mpbs will no
longer be sufficient.

Example 1 – Peer to Peer (P2P) applications like Bit-Torrent and other sharing
networks are highly popular with internet users. Large files like movies, iso-
images, TV shows are shared via P2P. These file-sharing applications represent
44% of all bandwidth consumed on networks operated by North American
Internet service providers, up from around 41% a year ago, according to a
survey by Sandvine, a vendor of bandwidth-management systems.

Example 2 - Infocomm is increasingly pervasive in our lives. Infocomm usage

in Singapore is reaching new heights. As of April 2008, 82.5 per cent of homes
in Singapore are using broadband. 3

3 http://www.ida.gov.sg/doc/News%20and%20Events/News_and_Events_Level2/20080617152602/FS10YearMasterp
lan.pdf
 G r o w th R a te o f R e s id e n tia l B r o a d b a n d S u b s c r ip tio n s , 4 Q 0 5 -
1 Q 0 8 , Q u a r t e r ly

10 0 %
8 0 % > 10 M bps
6 0 %
G ro w th R a te

> 2 M b p s to 1 0
4 0 % M bps
2 0 % > 5 1 2 K b p s to 2
0 % M bps
2 5 6 to 5 1 2 K b p s
-2 0 % (in c lu s ive )
-4 0 %
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4Q 05 2Q 06 4Q 06 2Q 07 4Q 07
Q u a rte r

Illustration 1: IDA Telecom Statistics May 2008

R e s id e n t ia l B r o a d b a n d b y S p e e d s

T h o u sa n d s
1 0 0 0 .0 0
> 10 M bps
9 0 0 .0 0
8 0 0 .0 0
N u m b e r o f S u b s c rip tio n s

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( i n c lu s i v e )
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3Q 05 1Q 06 3Q 06 1Q 07 3Q 07 1Q 08

Q u a rte r

Illustration 2: IDA Telecom Statistics May 2008

6. From static content to rich, immersive and dynamic content Computer

games have already morphed from single player, standalone console games to multi-
media online versions involving thousands of players. Next generation game consoles
are designed to be connected to the internet. There will also be a proliferation of
interactive devices and methods where consumers interact on a wholly immersive
level.
 Example 1 – Interactive Digital Media(IDM). Announced in iN2015 as one of
the key economic sectors to transform our ICT landscape, the push for IDM
can be seen by the newly setup multi-agency Interactive Digital Media
Research and Development (IDM R&D) Programme Office. Hosted by the
Media Development Authority of Singapore (MDA) it has put in place the
foundation pieces to build an eco-system in the Interactive Digital Media
(IDM) sector by strengthening the interlocking efforts of four key groups of
stakeholders over the past year - individuals, industry, schools and research
institutions.

Example 2 – Rich internet application techniques such as AJAX, Silverlight,

Adobe Flash, Flex and Java have matured to the potential to improve the user
experience in browser-based applications. These technologies allow a web-
page to request an update for some part of its content, and to alter that part in
the browser, without needing to refresh the whole page at the same time. This
results in a richer and more responsive internet experience.

Pitfalls to watch out for : Moral hazards like gambling and pornography will also hop
on the bandwagon and become more widespread.

7. From information pull to information push. The internet has transformed

the world from where information was scarce to where there is an onslaught of
information. Over the years, this trend has evolved to a trend commonly known as
Web 2.0. It is a term describing the trend in the use of World Wide Web technology
and web design that aims to enhance creativity, information sharing, and, most
notably, collaboration among users. Web 2.0 trends are the main drivers of
information push.

Example 1 – As Web 2.0 technologies like RSS and Atom feeds, Mashups,
Web services and widgets makes accessing information easier, users now have
the potential to personalize and sieve out individual preferences, getting only
the queries which are pertinent at hand.

Emerging Trends & Technologies not covered by iN2015

8. Environmental Trends : Green IT This is a fairly new trend that has caught
on this year. With the increased awareness of the environmental value of IT,
“reducing the carbon footprint” has become the buzzword of enterprises. According
to Gartner report - “The recent rise of the green issue — the push for addressing
human-driven greenhouse-gasbased climate change — is playing out in a similar
way. Those organizations with strong brands are helping to forge the first wave of
green sourcing policies and initiatives. These policies go well beyond minimizing
direct carbon emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental
regulations.”4 This means that organizations and vendors are factoring in the
environmental factors when purchasing that next Data Center, the next batch of
laptops, etc.

Emerging Trend 1 – “How Green Data Centers Save Money” Until recently, the
environmental impact of the data center was largely ignored. But today,
research company IDC (a sister company to CIO’s publisher) estimates that
companies spent $26.1 billion to power and cool servers worldwide in 2005.
Benefits of a green data center changes go beyond saving money or saving the
planet. Server standardization has made maintenance and upgrades easier. It’s
also made IT more responsive to business needs.

Emerging Trend 2 - Gartner reports that within the next five years,
information will be presented via new user interfaces such as organic light-
emitting displays, digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D imaging
and smart fabric.5 Gartner also predicts that by 2010, 75% of organizations will use
full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory PC hardware buying criteria6.

9. Innovation of ICT : Cloud Computing Cloud computing, once a concept as

murky as its name suggests, is becoming a legitimate emerging technology and
piquing the interest of forward-looking CIOs. Out-of-control costs for power,
personnel and hardware, limited space in data centers, and above all, a desire to
simplify, have encouraged significant numbers of startups—and a still small number
of enterprises—to move more infrastructure into a third-party provided cloud.

Amazon’s EC2 service and Google’s Google App Engine are examples of cloud
computing. Gartner defines cloud computing as a style of computing where
massively scalable IT-related capabilities are provided “as a service” using Internet
technologies to multiple external customers.7

Essentially it will mean that users of IT-related services will be able to focus on what
the service provides them rather than how the services are implemented or hosted.
Gartner maintains that although names for this type of operation have come into
vogue at different times — utility computing, software as a service (SaaS) and
application service providers — none has garnered widespread acceptance as the
central theme for how IT-related services can be delivered globally.
The types of IT services that can be provided through a cloud are wide-reaching.
Compute facilities provide computational services so that users can use central
processing unit (CPU) cycles without buying computers. Storage services provide a
way to store data and documents without having to continually grow farms of storage
networks and servers. SaaS companies offer CRM services through their multitenant
4 Pg 19, Report ID: G00154035 - “Garter Top Predicts 2008 and Beyond Going Green”
5 http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=681107
6 Pg 3, Report ID: G00154035 - “Garter Top Predicts 2008 and Beyond Going Green”
7 http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=707508
shared facilities so clients can manage their customers without buying software.
These represent only the beginning of options for delivering all kinds of complex
capabilities to both businesses and individuals.
Gartner maintains that cloud computing is very much an evolving concept that will
take many years to fully mature.
Spending trends8

10. This section outlines Singapore's ICT spending trends for the years 2003 to
2007 and is collated by IDA along with Department of Statistics to determine the
market performance of ICT sector for 2007.

11. Overall Performance. The infocomm industry revenue grew by 13.8% to

reach $51.68 billion in 2007, from $45.42 billion in 2006. As in previous years, the
Hardware segment continued to contribute more than half of the industry revenue;
the Hardware segment share of industry revenue was 55%. The fastest growing
segment was the IT Services segment, which grew by 40.6% in 2007.

12. Domestic Market. Domestic revenue grew by 10.3% to reach $18.13 billion in
2007, from $16.44 billion in 2006. The top two performers, the IT Services and
Hardware segments, saw growth rates of 51.9% and 25.5% respectively.

13. Export Market.Export revenue, the main contributor to the infocomm

industry revenue (with a share of 65%), grew by 15.8% to achieve $33.56 billion,
from $28.98 billion in 2006. The top two contributors, the Hardware and Software
segments, saw growth rates of 15.9% and 11.4% respectively.

14. Export Destinations. North Asia remained the top export destination overall,
with a share of 22% of the export revenue.

Additional Sources of Reading

1. Gartner Top 10 disruptive technologies 2008-2012
2. Gartner predicts 2008 and beyond
3. Gartner Top Industry Predicts
8 IDA Annual Survey on Infocomm Industry for 2007