Addition and Multiplication

Theorem
 Complement of a Set
S

A A

Let S={e1,e2,e3,e4,e5,e6}
If A= {e1},
then A’= {e2, e3,e4,e5,e6}
 Basic Definitions (Continued)

 Intersection (And)
– a set containing all elements in both A and B, means
both A and B occurs together
– A single card is drawn from a pack of cards, A is the
event selecting a king, B is the event selecting a card
which is heart
– What is the probability of selection of A and B

– A={K,K,K,K}

– B={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K}
Sets: A Intersecting with B
both A and B occur

A
B

A B
 Basic Definitions (Continued)

 Union (Or)
– a set containing all elements in A or B or both,
means either A or B will happen
– A single card is drawn from a pack of cards, A is the
event selecting a king, B is the event selecting a
card which is heart
– What is the probability of selection of A or B

– A={K,K,K,K}

– B={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K}
 2-6

Sets: A Union B

A
B

A B
 2-7

Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint Sets

Sets have nothing in common
S

B
A
 2-8

Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint Sets

Sets have nothing in common
S

B
A Red Cards Black Cards
 Independent events
Probability of happening of an event A does not
depends on another event B then A is
independent of B

Note- if A and B are independent that does not mean they

are mutually exclusive.
And if A and B are mutually exclusive that does not mean
that they are independent
 General Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example-A single 6-sided dice is rolled. What is the
probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
P(2)=1/6 and P(5)= 1/6, P(2 and 5) =0/6
P(2 or 5)= P(2)+P(5)- P(2 and 5)= 2/6
Example-A single card is chosen at random from a
standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability of choosing a king or a club?
P(king)=4/52, P(Club)=13/52, P(king of club)=P(king
AND club)=1/52
P(king OR club)= P(king)+P(Club)-P(king AND club)
P(king OR club)=(4/52)+(13/52)-(1/52)=16/52
Example- we noted that 75% of the chain
customers use mustard, 80% use Ketchup, and
65% use Both. What is the probability that they
uses Ketchup or mustard
OR
at least one of them
P(Mus)= 0.75, P(Ket)=0.80, P(ket and Mus)=0.65
P(ket OR mus)= ?
P(ket OR mus)= P(Mus)+P(Ket)-P(ket AND Mus)
= 0.75+0.80-0.65 = 0.90
• A survey of magazine subscribers showed that
45.8% rented a car during the past 12 months for
business reasons, 54% rented a car during the
past 12 months for personal reasons, and 30%
rented a car during the past 12 months for both
business and personal reasons.
• a. What is the probability that a subscriber rented
a car during the past 12 months for business or
personal reasons?
• b. What is the probability that a subscriber did
not rent a car during the past 12 months for
either business or personal reasons?
Let: B = rented a car for business reasons
P = rented a car for personal reasons
a. What is the probability that a subscriber rented
a car during the past 12 months for business or
personal reasons?
P(B  P) = P(B) + P(P) - P(B  P)
= .54 + .458 - .30 = .698
b. What is the probability that a subscriber did not
rent a car during the past 12 months for either
business or personal reasons?
P(Neither) = 1 - .698 = .302
 The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is
2/3, and the probability that he will get a electric contract is 4/9.
if the probability that he will get at least one contract is 4/5.
what is the probability that he will get both the contract.

2
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑝𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
3
𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 = 4/9
𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡, 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 =4/5
𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ, 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of one event,
given that another event has occurred
The
conditional
probability
of A given
that B has
occurred
The conditional
probability of B
given that A
has occurred
Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A
and B
Conditional Probability (continued)
 Example-Conditional Probability
Q1- What is the probability of drawing a king from a pack of
cards
P(A=King)= 4/52
Q2- What is the probability of drawing a king from a pack of
cards, when the card drawn is of red colour
P(A=King)= 4/52,
P(B= red colour)= 26/52, Think Logically about the
𝟐 answer-
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩 = favourable events/ total
𝟓𝟐
number of events

P(A|B)=(2/52)/(26/52)= 2/26
Example- we noted that 75% of the chain
customers use mustard, 80% use Ketchup, and
65% use Both. What are the probabilities that a
Ketchup user uses mustard and that a mustard
user uses ketchup.
P(Mus)= 0.75, P(Ket)=0.80, P(ket and Mus)=0.65
P(Mus|Ket) = P(Ket AND Mus)/ P(Ket)=
0.65/0.80= 0.8125
P(Ket|Mus) = P(Ket AND Mus)/ P(Mus)=
0.65/0.75= 0.8667
 Same Example
Can you fill the gaps

Mustard No Mustard

Ketchup

No Ketchup

1.00
 Same Example

Mustard No Mustard

Ketchup 0.65 0.15 0.80

No Ketchup 0.10 0.10 0.20

0.75 0.25 1.00

Multiplication Rule– For two events A and B, if
both the events occur simultaneously
Then the multiplication rule for two statistically
independent events is:

Two events A and B are statistically independent if the

probability of one event is unchanged by the knowledge
that other event occurred. That is:
 Example multiplication rule
Example- The probability of A to be alive till age 70
is 8/13 and that of B till 70 is 4/7, find the
probability that Both will be alive(both A and B will
be alive)
P(A)*P(B)= (8/13)*(4/7)
Example- The probability of favouring a Movie by
three critics are ½, 2/3, and 3/4. what is the
probability that all will favour the movie.

P(A)*P(B)*P(C)
If the probability of A solving the problem is ½, B
is 2/3 and C is ¾. What is the probability that the
problem will be solved

1. Find all possible cases.

2. 1-None solve the problem
 Example-
In the Karnataka global investors meet 773
investors participated. 139 invested in real state
and 634 invested in stock market. Out of 773
investors 204 had profit and rest had a loss. Out
of 139 who had invested in real state 41 had
made profit and 98 lost their money. None had
invested in both the sectors.
 Profit Loss
Real state
Stock Market
 Profit Loss
Real state 41 98 139
Stock Market 634
204 773

Profit Loss
Real state 41 98 139
Stock Market 163 471 634
204 569 773

Profit Loss
Real state 41/773 98/773 139/773
Stock Market 163/773 471/773 634/773
204/773 569/773 733/773
 Example-
Profit Loss
Real state 41/773 98/773 139/773
Stock Market 163/773 471/773 634/773
204/773 569/773 733/773
Find
Probability of an investor to investment in real state
Probability of an investor to investment in stock market
Probability of an investor to get profit
Probability of an investor to get loss
Probability of an investor to have profit investing in real state
Probability of an investor to have loss investing in real state
Probability of an investor to have profit investing in stock market
Probability of an investor to have loss investing in stock market
 Profit Loss
Real state Joint Joint Marginal
Probability Probability Probability

Stock Market Joint Joint Marginal

Probability Probability Probability

Marginal Marginal 773

Probability Probability

Profit Loss
Real state 41/773 98/773 139/773
Stock Market 163/773 471/773 634/773
204/773 569/773 733/773
 Example-
If a randomly selected delegate is from real
state, what is the probability that he/she will
earn profit-
P(profit| real state)= P(profit and real
state)/P(real state)
=(41/773)/(139/773)=41/139
P(real state| profit)= P(profit and real
state)/P(profit)
=(41/773)/(204/733)=41/204
 Bayes Theorem
Prediction of weather- if the temperature is so and so,
humidity is so and so, what is the probability that there will
be rain

Predicting water quality

Prediction of offence in Law

Testing of flights accidents

Medical Science
 Bayes Theorem

P ( A B)  P ( A  B) P( A  B)  P( A B) P( B)
P ( B)
 P( B A) P( A)

If we know P(B|A) is known and we have to find P(A|B),

then we use bayes theorem

P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A)/ P(B)

 Bayes Theorem
Prior probability
Additional information
Posterior probability using Bayes
theorem
A manufacturer buys two product from firm A1
and A2 in the ratio 65% and 35%.
Prior probability- P(A1)= 0.65, P(A2)= 0.35,
Additional information
The quality of the products are found to be good
or bad. As per the manufacturer 98% are found
to be good from A1 and 95% are found to be
good from A2.
So P(G|A1)=0.98, P(B|A1)=0.02
P(G|A2)=0.95, P(B|A2)=0.05
If there is break down in the manufacturing unit
due to bad product.
Posterior Probability
What is the probability that the bad product was
from A1
P(A1|B)
What is the probability that the bad product was
from A2
P(A2|B)
 Bayes Theorem
For n Mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
A1, A2, A3, …, with probability P(Ai)>0 and B a
subset of U(Ai), P(Ai)>0, Then
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1
=
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐴𝑛 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑛

A1, A2 are the events, in the example A1 subsidery, A2 subsidery,

A3 and so on
If there is break down in the manufacturing unit
due to bad product.
Posterior Probability
What is the probability that the bad product was
from A1
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 =
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2

0.65 ∗ 0.02
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 = = 0.4262
0.65 ∗ 0.02 + 0.35 ∗ 0.05
What is the probability that the bad product was
from A2
𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2)
𝑃(𝐴2|𝐵) =
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2)

0.35 ∗ 0.05
𝑃 𝐴2 𝐵 = = 0.5738
0.65 ∗ 0.02 + 0.35 ∗ 0.05
 Another approach
Good Quality Bad Quality
A1 0.98 of 0.65 0.02 of 0.65 0.65

A2 0.95 of 0.35 0.05 of 0.35 0.35

Good Quality Bad Quality

A1 0.98*0.65= 0.02*0.65= 0.65
0.637 0.013
A2 0.95*0.35= 0.05*0.35= 0.35
0.3325 0.0175

0.9695 0.0305 1
 Another approach
Good Quality Bad Quality
A1 0.637 0.013 0.65

A2 0.3325 0.0175 0.35

0.9695 0.0305 1

𝑃(𝐴1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)

0.013
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 = = 0.4262
0.0305
 Joint Probability
Subsidiary Quality
P(G|A1)* P(A1)=P(A1 and G)
Good
P(G|A1)=0.98)

P(A1=0.65) Bad P(B|A1)* P(A1)=P(A1 and B)

P(B|A1)=0.0.02)
Good
P(A2=0.35)
P(G|A2)=0.95) P(G|A2)* P(A2)=P(A2 and G)
Bad
P(B|A2=0.05)
P(B|A2)* P(A2)=P(A2 and B)
 Insurance Sector
Example- An insurance company insured 2000
scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck
drivers. The probability of an accident involving
a scooter driver, a car driver and truck driver is
0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the
insured person met with an accident. What is
the probability that he is a scooter driver.
2000 scooter drivers=> P(S)= 2000/12000
4000 car drivers => P(C)= 4000/12000
6000 truck drivers => P(T)= 6000/12000

The probability of an accident involving a scooter

driver, a car driver and truck driver is 0.01, 0.03 and
0.15
P(A|S)=0.01, P(A|C)=0.03 and P(A|T)=0.15
one of the insured person met with an accident.
What is the probability that he is a scooter driver.
P(S|A)= ?
What is the probability that he is a scooter driver.
P(S|A)= ?

𝑃 𝑆 𝑃 𝐴𝑆
𝑃 𝑆𝐴 =
𝑃 𝑆 𝑃 𝐴 𝑆 +𝑃 𝐶 𝑃 𝐴 𝐶 +𝑃 𝑇 𝑃 𝐴 𝑇

(2/12) ∗ (1/100)
2/12 ∗ (1/100) + (4/12) ∗ (3/100) + (6/12) ∗ (15/100)

= 2/104
What is the probability that he is a Car driver.
P(C|A)= ?
What is the probability that he is a truck driver.
P(T|A)= ?
 Manufacturing Sector
A factory produces 3 machines, A, B and C
producing 1000, 2000 and 3000 bolts per day
respectively.
It is found that A produces 1% defective, B
produces 2 % defective and C produces 3%
defectives.
If a bolt is chosen at the end of the day and
found defective what is the probability that it
came from machine A
P(A)=1/6, P(B)= 2/6, and P(C)= 3/6
It is found that A produces 1% defective
=>P(D|A)=1/100
B produces 2 % defective
=>P(D|B)=2/100
and C produces 3% defectives
=>P(D|C)=3/100
If a bolt is chosen at the end of the day and
found defective what is the probability that it
came from machine A
=> P(A|D)
P(A|D)
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐷𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 𝐷 =
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐷 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐷 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 𝑃 𝐷 𝐶
𝑃 𝐴 𝐷 =
1
∗1/100
6
1 2 =1/14
∗1/100+ 2/100+(3/6)∗3/100
6 6

𝑃 𝐵 𝐷 =?
𝑃 𝐶 𝐷 =?
Manufacturing Sector
Notation

Probability
Let us consider that the company manufactures 10,000
items, considering the probabilities convert it into a
table form
Let us consider that the company manufactures 10,000
items, considering the probabilities convert it into a
table form

Using these values we can also find probabilities

and then conditional probabilities as well
 Academics
90% of the students of a class are well prepared
and 10% unprepared for the examination. If the
probability of passing with preparedness is 0.85
and that of not passing with unpreparedness is
0.60,
find the probability that a students selected at
random is one who is found to have passed
must have prepared well
 Academics
A1= prepared well= 0.90
A2= not prepared well= 0.10
P(S|A1)=0.85,
P(F|A2)=0.60
So P(F|A1)=0.15, P(S|A2)=0.40
Probability of a students Who is found to have
passed must have prepared well
P(A1|S)=
{P(S|A1)*P(A1)}/{P(S|A1)*P(A1)+P(A2|S)*P(S)}
=0.95