California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
June 2019
Sales
 Sales dropped below 400k,
lowest in past 5 months

700,000 California, June 2019 Sales: 389,690 Units, -5.9% YTD, -5.1% YTY
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 California home sales slowed faster than what
previous month led to believe
25% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 Bay Area sales decreased in June
but trending upward
30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10% -8.8%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-18
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 So. California sales still down
but slowly trending up
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.

10%
0%
-10%
-9.3%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Central Valley sales had
biggest decline since Jan 2019
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10% -9.4%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
Sep-12

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Sales down at every price point

June 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment

0% 10% 20% 30%
0%
-2%
-4% $0 - $299k 12.5%
-6% -4.1%
-8% -5.3% $300 - $399k 15.4%
-6.9% -6.1%
-10%
-12% $400 - $499k 13.6%
-14% -12.3% $500 - $749k
-16% -13.6% 25.1%
-18% $750 - $999k
-20% 11.8%
-18.6%
$1,000 - $1,999k 13.6%
$2,000k+ 4.1%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
Sales by Region
June 2019 Home Sales Growth
June 2019 Home Sales by Region by Region
0.0%
Other Counties -2.0%
Central 8% -4.0%
Coast -6.0%
4% -8.0% -6.4%
Central
Valley -10.0% -9.4% -8.8% -9.3%
22% -12.0% -11.3%

S.F. Bay
Southern
Area
California
19%
47%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
9
 Pending sales bounced back

4%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
Price
 California median price set a
new high again in June 2019

$700,000 California, June 2019: $611,420, +0.0% MTM, +1.4% YTY

$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13

May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-13
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
 Home prices inched up but the pace
of growth slowed again in June
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-06
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17
Jan-05

Jan-07

May-08
Jan-09

May-10
Jan-11

May-12
Jan-13

May-14
Jan-15

May-16
Jan-17

May-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
 Condo/Townhome price inched up,
highest since last July
$600,000 California, June 2018: $476,500, June 2019: $480,000
$500,000
Median Price

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0

Jul-15
Feb-09

Apr-10

Feb-16

Apr-17
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06

Sep-09
May-07

Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13

Sep-16
Dec-07
Jul-08

May-14

Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Dec-14
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)

Month-to-Month % Chg
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Price/Square Foot unchanged
from last month and inched up from last year

$400
June 2019: $292, +0.0% MTM, Up 0.7% YTY

$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0

Jul-18
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
 Sales Price-to-List Price ratio dipped slightly
as market moves through the peak of the season
June 2019: 99.2%, -0.1% MTM, -0.8% YTY

100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

98%

96%

94%

92%

90%

Jul-18
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile

California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (June 2019)

6% 5.3%
5%
4% 3.2%
3%
2%
1% 0.5%
0%
-1%
-0.8% -0.9%
-2% -1.2%
-3% -2.5%
-4% -3.3% -3.1%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Mortgage payment continued to drop;
rates lowest in 31 months
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage
6% Payment
20%
5% 4.57%
3.80% 15%
4% 10%

YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5%
1% -10%

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Apr-16
Jul-16

Apr-17
Jul-17

Apr-18
Jul-18

Apr-19
0%
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Sep-17

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 Mortgage payment continued to drop;
rates lowest in 31 months
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%
15%
YTY% Chg.

10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
 List price growth vs. sales

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

40%
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
May-14

May-16
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
 Market Velocity

100.0%
150.0%

-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Price Growth

Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Market Velocity (6 month trailing average)

Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Market Velocity

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
50.0%
40.0%

-50.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%

-30.0%

22

Existing SFR Median Price

Growth
page
 Inventory &
Active Listings
 Inventory index up due primarily
to dip in sales
18.0 June 2018: 3.0 Months; June 2019: 3.4 Months
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
 Supply improved in all but
the lowest 2 price segments

June 2019
Active Listing
20%
12.0% 12.2% 11.3%
10%
4.5% 2.4%
0%

-10% -4.1%
-11.4%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
 Regional inventory levels inched up from last year

9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0 3.6
3.0 2.9
2.0 2.5
1.0
0.0

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions

California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment

10 9.3
7.8
8
6 5.1
4.2 4.3
4 3.2
3.8 3.2 3.3
3.9 3.0 3.4
2.93.2 2.93.0 2.83.1 2.53.0
2
0

Jun-18 Jun-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
 Active listings had smallest growth since Apr 2018

Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%

10% 2.4%

0%

-10%

-20%

Mar-19
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
May-15
Jul-15

Nov-15

May-16
Jul-16

Nov-16

May-18
Jul-18

Nov-18

May-19
Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

May-17
Jul-17

Nov-17
Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Sep-18

Jan-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
 Active listings increased in all regions
except Central Valley
Jun-18 Jun-19
35,000
30,000 28,744
26,944
Active Listings

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,759 10,459
10,000 7,655
6,265
5,000 2,682 2,836
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
 Active listings in Central Valley dipped
for the 1st time in 14 months
June 2019

30% Sales Active Listings

22.2%
Year-to-Year % Chg

20%

10% 6.7% 5.7%

0%
-2.8%
-10% -8.8% -6.4%
-9.3% -9.4%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
Active Listings by Month

California Active Listings by Month

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
31
Market Competitiveness
 Time on Market ticked up
in an unexpected rebound
California, June 2019: 19.0 Days
80
70
60
DAYS ON MARKET

50
40
30
20
10
0

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16
Sep-05

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
33
Median Time on Market by Percentile

California Median Time on Market by Quintile

25
21
20 19 19 18
17 17 17 17 17 16 16 17
15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15
15

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Jun-18 Jun-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

101.0%
100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0% 99.7% 99.8% 99.7%
99.5%
99.0%
98.6%
98.5%
98.0%
97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Jun-18 Jun-19

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
 Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
May-12

May-17
Jun-09

Apr-10

Aug-13

Jun-14

Apr-15

Aug-18

Jun-19
Jan-09

Nov-09

Jul-11
Sep-10

Dec-11

Oct-12
Mar-13

Jan-14

Nov-14

Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16

Oct-17
Mar-18

Jan-19
Feb-11

Sep-15
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
 Reduced-Price Listings

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 37.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.1%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%

9/1/2014

5/1/2017
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014

1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017

9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings

Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +2.8%

Growth in Median Reduction Amount: -0.1%
8% 0.00%
6% -0.05%
4% -0.10%
2% -0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%

11/1/2016
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015

1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016

1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017

1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018

1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
11/1/2015

11/1/2017

11/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
38
Thank You