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hypo: high losses due to primitive post-harvesting technique

concl: 40-50% losses in total (based on research)

Great pasca-panen technique


Low losses

Optimal harvesting technique hypo: fertilizers do not massively increase crops production

Great quality of fertilizers

hypo: new seeds invention might increase production, but in


relatively long time
Great quality of seeds

hypo: weather change in Indonesia does not significant, except


catastrophe

Great weather Sufficient rain/irrigation

Hypo: Margin for middlemen can be as high as 50% High production crops
Abundant sunlight
High barriers to farmers to sell to other middlemen
Loan
Great quality of soil

Provide supply Middlemen controls the buy-price from farmers What makes crops oversupply?
hypo: govt conduct training, but farmers do not implement it
Middlemen conspire with others to set buy-price from farmers New training
Middlemen high profit margin

Market barriers for new middlemen


Better technique/invention
hypo: some startups already develop new tool (e.g. precision
farming) but too difficult for farmers to implement
New tools (e.g. efishery)
What factors influenced in distribution side?
Penimbunan
Previous high demand
hypo: farmers do not plan what crops and how much they plant
Hypo: middlemen often practice penimbunan during certain period (e.g.
sebelum lebaran) based on previous demand. only based on usual practice
Distributor only sell in that region Others What factors influenced in production side?
Lots of famers plant certain crops hypo: govt can encourage farmers to plant certain crops by
Higher price in certain region providing them with seeds. it might affect crops production
Hypo: Kelangkaan di region lain leads to price increase in consumers level
Government mandate
Uneven distribution
Government seeds subsidy
What factors influence crops price hypo: farmers often tempt to plant crops which are previously
Better infrastructure (e.g. toll road) fluctuation? profitable and low maintenance (e.g. sengon)
Transport High crops price during previous season
Hypo: not so much losses during transport

Penyusutan hypo: since farmers depend a lot the weather, they plant similar Hypo: flood and extreme dry season can make crop failure
High losses crops during similar period, which makes the crops production
Kerusakan increasing drastically in certain period of time, reducing its price
Similar harvest time among different regions Unpredictable dry season
Spoiled Bad weather
Hypo: significant losses only to few specific crops (e.g. cabe,
bawang) Low production crops Flood

Rat Storage
New kind of pest
Truck rent What makes crops undersupply? Nonoptimal post-harvest technique Pest treatment is uneffective
Transportation
Nonoptimal harvesting technique High price of pesticide
Fuel
High losses
High cost Pest/infection
Driver Unbalance ecosystem (e.g. snake population decrease, rat
population increase)
Concl: transportation cost has the highest percentage [F7] Energy Low crops price during previous season

Building rent Hypo: Dramatic increase of pests can make crop failure
Storage Fewer farmers plant certain crops Lack of seeds supply
Workforce

Sorting and grading Rapid demand change

Healthy What factors influenced in consumers side


Risk

Packaging Lifestyle
Organic

Hypo: since healthier and organic crops are expensive, lifestyle


change wont affect a lot of consumers

hypo: no substitute crops (e.g. cabe, bawang) Sensitive commodity


concl: sensitive to rapid weather change (e.g. cabe, bawang,
gula, daging-dagingan, tomat) Events (e.g. lebaran, natal)

Penyakit hewan (e.g. anthrax)

Boikot
Issues
Berita kelangkaan

Hypo: this kind of issues only affect in a short period of time, but
might dramatically increase or decrease the demand