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July 15 2019

SUMMARY

Market wrap: Growing uncertainties over trade deal send the indices lower

Macro wrap: Update on 1H 2019 trade data

Equity wrap: Update on GMD visit note

MARKET WRAP
Global Market
DJI* 27,088 0.85%

MARKET MOVEMENTS
All the future contracts ended lower in line with the VN30 underlying index. Liquidity jumped to USD 460mn worth of 122,566
S&P500* 3,000 0.23%
traded contracts. OI at 26,699 units. VIX* 12.93 -0.01%
FTSE100* 7,509.8 -0.28%
VN Index winning streak has been eased on the locking profit activities and growing uncertainties over trade deal. Both bourses DAX* 12,332 -0.33%
traded higher most of the time before the selling pressure was triggered at the closing bell. HCM gauges slid below the water as CAC40* 5,552 -0.28%
VNM, VIC and VRE tumbled. It’s followed by the drop at MSN, GAS, VJC. Among lenders, LPB, HDB and VIB advanced while Nikkei 21,686 0.20%
other peers lost ground. SAB however, surged and helped anchor the benchmark. HPG recovered on the back of foreign demand. Shanghai 2,931 0.44%
Notably, the net foreign buying value accelerated to USD 14mn. In which, PLX still topped the net buying name with USD 8mn Kospi 2,087 0.29%
recorded. Traded liquidity stay sluggish at USD 157mn level * previous trading session

VN-Index down 0.3% to 975.4 pts while HNX-Index down 0.15% to 106 pts. Vietnam Stock Market Summary
VNIndex HNXIndex
Movers of the VN Index (-3.23 points) Index 975.40 105.86
1D -0.3% -0.2%
YTD 9.3% 1.6%
Top five leaders Top five laggers Trading Value (USD
mn) 154.2 18.4
VNM VIC VRE MSN VCB Net Foreign Buy/Sell
0.60 0.570
0.00 (USD mn) 14.2 0.0
0.50 -0.10 Weight % 13.0% 1.7%
Market Cap (USD
0.40 -0.20 mn) 141,266 8,181
P/E 16.88 7.80
0.286 -0.30
0.30
-0.40 Commodity 1D
(0.344) (0.329)
0.20 (0.379)
-0.50 Brent Crude oil price 67.1 0.9%
0.10 0.084 0.069 0.054 (0.495) Gold price 1,410 0.5%
-0.60 Foreign Exchange 1D
0.00 -0.70 (0.619) USD/VND 23,199 0.0%
SAB HPG HVN POW CTD EUR/VND 26,131 0.1%
JPY/VND 214 0.1%
Source: Bloomberg
CNY/VND 3,373 -0.1%
Interests
Overnight rate 2.886
G-bond 5 yr rate 3.738

Source: Bloomberg

MARKET SUMMARY (click here)

VIETNAM MACRO SUMMARY (click here)

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ECONOMIC WRAP
The custom office of Vietnam has released its trade data for the first half of 2019. As of the end of June 2019, the total export value of Vietnam had
reached $122.53 bn, an increase of 7.2% compared to the first half of 2018. Total import value nationwide reached $120.94 bn, up 8.9% compared
to the same period in 2018. The trade balance posted a comparatively softer surplus of $1.59 bn against the previous $ 3.26 bn USD achieved in
the same period last year. It’s important to note that Vietnam was still in trade deficit territory even in May.

By market, exports to the US rose by 27.3% YoY to $27.5 bn, an increase of $5.91 bn YoY. Meanwhile, imports from the US rose by 14.3% YoY,
or by $860 mn USD. The trade balance with the US recorded a surplus of $20.59 bn and surged by + 32.4% YoY compared to the same period
last year.

In the meantime, exports to China were flat YoY at $16.68 bn, while imports from China picked up by 18.2% YoY, to $ 35.69 bn. In this particular
trade case, Vietnam’s trade deficit with China swelled, recording $19 bn, +40.1% YoY.

Among top export products, we saw decent growth in the biggest groups of products, such as mobile phones and accessories (+3.9% YoY),
computers and electronic products (+14.1% YoY), textile and garment (+10.3% YoY), footwear (+13.4%), etc.

However, we nevertheless note a decline in imports of some products such as oil and gas (-42% YoY), mobile phones and accessories (-2.8%
YoY), and steel and iron (- 2.2% YoY).

In daily news, over the weekend the government held a special meeting to assess trade relations with key trade partners (the US, China, EU, Korea,
Japan, ASEAN, etc.). The focus was not simply about balancing these relations, but was also on how to aggressively and proactively address trade
violations in transshipment cases, issues involving certificate of origin issuance, or other miscellaneous trade fraud. Detailed measures may be
announced later on, as the meeting cements in yet another proactive gesture by Vietnam to accommodate the needs of its trade partners – and to
demonstrate the flexibility and tact of Vietnamese politicians in spearheading solutions to ease trade tensions in the midst of the US-China trade
war.

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EQUITY WRAP

Gemadept Corporation (GMD: HOSE): Company visit note


Outstanding shares: 297 mil; Market Cap: $ 344 mil USD; Average trading value 3M: $0.35 mil USD, Market price: VND 26,850; and Foreign
ownership: 49%

Industrials Analyst: Giang Hoang Nguyen, CFA, giangnh@ssi.com.vn

Recently, we paid a visit to the company and discussed future prospects with management. Below is some of our key takeaways from the meeting:

What we learnt

Hai Phong International Container Terminal (HICT), consisting of the first 2 berths of Lach Huyen deep seaport, performed at more than double its
volume this year. In the last 6 months of 2018, HICT handled 68K TEU worth of containers, handling 4 vessels/week. In the first 6 months of 2019,
HICT handled 200K TEU of containers, handling a full 8 vessels/week. Notably, two of those vessels (from Wanhai & Maersk) are mother vessels,
and go straight to America, making these the first intercontinental shipments departing from Northern Vietnam.

Due to HICT coming into the picture, Gemadept envisages slower than expected volume growth for their current ports. For example, Nam Dinh Vu
initially was expected to reach full capacity in 2019 (600K TEU), but now can only reach 50-60% of capacity (300-400K TEU) in 2019. The reason
is that a portion of volume has been diverted to HICT and transported straight to US/Canada ports. This is despite the fact that the handling fee here
is $46 USD/TEU compared to $33 USD/TEU in other ports.

At the moment, Nam Dinh Vu port docks 7 vessels/week (compared to 5 last year), whereas Nam Hai Dinh Vu docks 8 vessels/week (equal to last
year) and Nam Hai port docks 3 vessels/week (compared to 5 from last year).

From the beginning of 2019, Circular 54/BGTVT of the Ministry of Transportation (MoT) has taken effect, in which the floor price of the port handling
service (ship-to-shore) for downstream ports is $33 USD/TEU (for 20-feet container ships), +10% YoY compared to last year’s floor price.
However, according to GMD they have difficulty in negotiating with carriers to increase the price to the new floor price, as the financials of global
carriers have not improved much this year. GMD needs to offer a discount for other services (which are not regulated by the Circular) in order to
remain competitive.

Gemalink is expected to start construction soon. This is Gemadept’s first deep sea port project (similar to HICT) in Cai Mep area, Southern Vietnam.
This port has 14m water draft, and can serve up to 18K TEU vessels. The first phase of Gemalink has 1.5 million TEU, and the second phase adds
another 1 million TEU. For the first phase, Gemalink might need to incur $210 million USD of debt, with about $90 million USD of that composed
of foreign-denominated debt. Thanks to CMA CGM being the strategic shareholder of Gemalink (with a 25% stake), GMD expects CMA CGM to
immediately fill up about 50% of the capacity of Gemalink at the day of completion by shifting most of their cargo from other surrounding ports
(CMIT, TCIT, SSIT – locating close by) back to Gemalink. The company expects completion of construction in 2021. Capacity utilization is expected
to reach 60% in 2021, and 100% in 2022 as according to management.

Up to May, GMD had completed 39% of its 2019 profit before tax target of VND 695 bn, +15% YoY in core earnings.

What we think

HICT’s impact on the Haiphong port system, as we have mentioned several times previously, is going to be a long-term and structural one. At first,
short-term impact might not be very impactful, as only a few liners with a large amount of intercontinental cargo will find switching to direct
intercontinental routes financially beneficial. In the long-term though, the logistic chain will reorganize itself, leading to increasing demand for a
deep seaport in Haiphong. This will conversely shrink demand for river-based ports. Thus, we expect every port operator, including GMD, will want
to construct and own some berths in the Lach Huyen deep seaport system. Bidding is underway, but there is no conclusive sign of the confirmed
identity of the next investors. We however have identified some current bidders, such as Saigon New Port, Vinalines, Vingroup, GMD, and Viconship.

Lower than expected demand at Nam Dinh Vu port is also well-expected by us, as we see it was born at a time when demand growth is not very
high (8-10% YoY) while supply surges with the start of HICT (1.5 million TEU capacity). We expect Nam Dinh Vu to continue to see low demand
and pricing pressure from their customers.

Gemalink is a good inclusion to GMD’s port portfolio, as demand for deep seaport and larger vessel handling capability is going to be increasingly
relevant for the long-term. However, investors might need to watch closely the potentially large increase of debt mentioned, as it presents risk of
lower earnings risk (from both interest rate and foreign exchange fluctuations).

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At the moment, GMD is trading at 2019F and 2020F forward PER metrics of 14.7x and 13.2x respectively, which is slightly lower than GMD’s
historical PE range of 14-15x. 2019F and 2020F P/B ratio are estimated at 1.35x and 1.32x respectively. We are waiting for the mid-year report to
be released, of which will spur an update from us, and might spark a revision of our forecast accordingly.

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TRADING STATISTICS
TOP 5-Index Leading Mover

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Price Index % T-1 Ticker Price Index % T-1 Ticker Price Index % T-1
SAB 289.0 0.57 1.0% VCS 74.4 0.18 7.8% HND 14.8 0.10 11.3%
HPG 21.9 0.29 1.6% PGS 35.0 0.07 6.1% VIB 17.7 0.07 4.1%
HVN 43.9 0.08 0.5% CEO 10.7 0.05 2.9% QTP 12.1 0.06 10.0%
POW 14.9 0.07 0.7% HUT 2.6 0.04 8.3% SJG 7.3 0.05 14.1%
CTD 110.8 0.05 2.1% PVC 7.8 0.02 9.9% ACV 82.6 0.03 0.1%

TOP 5-Index Lagging Mover

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Price Index % T-1 Ticker Price Index % T-1 Ticker Price Index % T-1
VNM 124.0 -0.62 -1.0% ACB 30.1 -0.13 -0.3% GVR 13.4 -0.16 -2.2%
VIC 116.0 -0.50 -0.4% SHB 6.7 -0.11 -1.5% MSR 18.3 -0.05 -2.1%
VRE 35.9 -0.38 -1.5% PVS 23.8 -0.08 -1.2% BSR 12.2 -0.04 -0.8%
MSN 81.5 -0.34 -1.2% SHN 8.5 -0.06 -5.6% VSF 8.6 -0.04 -6.5%
VCB 73.7 -0.33 -0.4% NVB 8.0 -0.03 -1.2% VEA 59.6 -0.02 -0.2%

TOP Value Rising suprises compared to Ave 5 days Trading (Price increased)

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Price % Change Vol. % T-1 Ticker Price % Change Vol. % T-1 Ticker Price % Change Vol. % T-1
GTA 12.5 973.5% 6.8% PVC 7.8 968.2% 9.9% HTM 9.7 479.0% 7.8%
VOS 1.5 274.1% 2.1% HUT 2.6 235.2% 8.3% SDP 2.0 379.7% 11.1%
PXS 5.4 235.8% 6.9% VCS 74.4 196.3% 7.8% HND 14.8 300.5% 11.3%
VHC 89.5 190.6% 1.7% L14 58.0 156.6% 1.8% TTN 13.9 179.7% 4.5%
BMP 48.3 184.0% 4.3% CEO 10.7 104.5% 2.9% ILA 2.3 126.8% 9.5%

TOP Value Rising suprises compared to Ave 5 days Trading (Price declined)

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Price % Change Vol. % T-1 Ticker Price % Change Vol. % T-1 Ticker Price % Change Vol. % T-1
PC1 18.1 88.7% -2.2% SPP 2.9 500.1% -6.5% CTR 32.2 78.8% -1.2%
STK 24.0 86.0% -2.4% VCR 20.5 133.6% -9.7% MFS 32.3 19.1% -1.5%
DRH 7.0 76.7% -2.1% MPT 2.4 77.5% -4.0% VNP 5.3 7.8% -1.9%
VNE 4.2 74.9% -1.9% VCG 25.9 51.9% -1.1%
MSN 81.5 44.9% -1.2% TNG 20.9 35.7% -1.9%

Top Trading Val. (Bn VND)

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Price Trading Val. % T-1 Ticker Price Trading Val. % T-1 Ticker Price Trading Val. % T-1
ROS 28.5 477.3 -2.4% PVS 23.8 88.8 -1.2% CTR 32.2 38.0 -1.2%
PLX 64.5 224.1 -0.2% VCS 74.4 68.7 7.8% VLB 32.5 36.5 0.0%
VPB 19.5 120.3 -0.8% TNG 20.9 30.8 -1.9% PHH 11.9 23.3 0.0%
MBB 21.4 114.2 -0.2% ACB 30.1 26.8 -0.3% VIB 17.7 16.3 4.1%
VGC 21.3 96.0 -0.9% VCG 25.9 25.0 -1.1% HND 14.8 15.9 11.3%

TOP net foreign buy (Bn VND)

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Buy Sell Net Ticker Buy Sell Net Ticker Buy Sell Net
PLX 188.1 0.0 188.1 VCS 9.5 0.0 9.5 QNS 6.3 0.0 6.3
VCB 39.2 -6.6 32.6 DGC 1.2 0.0 1.2 VTP 5.0 -0.2 4.8
VRE 32.4 -8.1 24.3 PVI 0.9 0.0 0.9 CTR 1.9 -0.1 1.8
BMP 22.5 -0.1 22.4 TNG 0.6 0.0 0.6 BSR 4.2 -2.7 1.4
CTG 22.3 -0.3 22.0 AMV 0.4 0.0 0.4 MFS 0.5 0.0 0.5

TOP net foreign sell (Bn VND)

HOSE HNX UPCOM


Ticker Buy Sell Net Ticker Buy Sell Net Ticker Buy Sell Net
MSN 11.2 -30.7 -19.5 PVS 18.3 -28.3 -10.0 VEA 0.9 -3.7 -2.7
VNM 4.6 -21.9 -17.3 SHS 0.1 -1.1 -1.0 ACV 2.3 -4.6 -2.3
VHM 24.5 -39.1 -14.6 BTW 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 OIL 0.0 -0.4 -0.4
KDH 0.0 -4.7 -4.7 NTP 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 VGT 0.0 -0.3 -0.3
HAX 0.0 -4.7 -4.7 BVS 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 GVR 0.0 -0.3 -0.3

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PUT THROUGH TRANSACTION


HOSE HNX UPCOM
Ticker Vol. (share) Val. (bn VND) Ticker Vol. (share) Val. (bn VND) Ticker Vol. (share) Val. (bn VND)
24,301,833 633.44 3,045,845 25.25 2,786,781 38.00
SDI11717 847,426 87.81 SIC 980,000 8.82 PHH 1,938,530 23.26
VPB 4,002,000 79.90 HHC 45,000 5.29 DNW 337,300 5.40
ROS 2,550,000 79.05 VCG 171,000 4.51 OIL 289,900 3.32
VGC 3,624,910 72.50 MAC 425,445 2.64 ACV 28,000 2.31
SCR 7,000,000 49.00 S55 105,000 2.25 SKH 49,600 1.13
PNJ 590,000 46.08 SVN 1,036,400 1.14 MH3 20,000 0.98
GMD 1,200,000 31.20 PLC 18,000 0.26 MPC 25,400 0.72
VHM 280,000 23.24 PVX 250,000 0.25 HND 22,500 0.28
SCR11816 190,000 19.33 TKC 5,000 0.10 WTC 44,589 0.20
NPM11804 144,934 14.75 HKB 10,000 0.01 RTS 3,466 0.12
SAB 50,000 14.50 GVR 5,700 0.07
GEX 620,880 13.38 CGP 4,700 0.05
VHM11802 115,238 12.07 DTN 6,046 0.04
AAA 583,100 11.08 VSF 4,300 0.03
CTD 100,000 11.00 SEA 1,200 0.02
CTI 440,000 10.27 TTN 1,500 0.02
SBT 357,000 6.13 VGI 700 0.02
MSN 65,000 5.32 IKH 1,250 0.01
ANC11601 50,745 5.27 DSS 1,200 0.01
VHM11801 40,490 4.33 SUM 800 0.00
VPL11811 41,938 4.27 TRS 100 0.00
VPL11809 38,000 4.01
VCB 52,000 3.75
TRC 100,000 3.28
VCI 100,000 3.25
VIC11725 31,065 3.15
GTA 250,000 3.00
E1VFVN30 150,000 2.20
NVT 200,000 1.60
VIC11813 15,278 1.58
VPL11810 11,533 1.22
CCL 166,670 1.00
PHC 76,000 1.00
VIC11724 6,747 0.69
VIC11814 6,400 0.65
CLW 30,440 0.60
DRH 80,000 0.58
VHM11726 4,799 0.50
YBM 25,000 0.28
VIC11901 2,580 0.27
FLC 60,660 0.25
MSN11719 1,000 0.10

Source: SSI, HNX, HSX

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DISCLAIMER
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Director
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained
herein, including any expression of opinion, are based upon sources Associate
Hung Pham Macro 637 hungpl@ssi.com.vn
believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or Director
correctness are not guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were Giang Nguyen, Associate
arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon Equity Research 430 giangntt@ssi.com,vn
ACCA Director
the best information then known to us, and in our opinion are fair and
Research Consumer Goods &
reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time, and no Trang Pham 537 trangph@ssi.com.vn
Manager Services, Oil & Gas
unpublished price sensitive information would be included in the report.
Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without Research
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notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer Manager
or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report
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