Using​ ​Group​ ​Comparisons​ ​to​ ​Support​ ​Inferential​ ​Reasoning

Hollylynne​ ​Lee
Friday​ ​Institute​ ​for​ ​Educational​ ​Innovation
NC​ ​State​ ​University

Recall​ ​that​ ​inferential​ ​reasoning​ ​involves​ ​using​ ​information​ ​or​ ​data​ ​available​ ​(a​ ​sample)​ ​to​ ​make​ ​some​ ​claim​ ​or
generalization​ ​about​ ​something​ ​larger,​ ​or​ ​beyond,​ ​the​ ​data​ ​itself.​ ​While​ ​formal​ ​techniques​ ​(e.g.,​ ​t-test,​ ​ANOVA,
chi-square​ ​test,​ ​bootstrapping)​ ​can​ ​be​ ​used​ ​for​ ​more​ ​sophisticated​ ​learners,​ ​building​ ​the​ ​habits​ ​of​ ​inferential
reasoning​ ​are​ ​a​ ​crucial​ ​aspect​ ​of​ ​learning​ ​to​ ​do​ ​statistics,​ ​from​ ​the​ ​very​ ​get-go​ ​with​ ​early​ ​learners.

To​ ​make​ ​inferences​ ​from​ ​data,​ ​it​ ​is​ ​necessary​ ​to​ ​be​ ​able​ ​to​ ​say​ ​something​ ​about​ ​how​ ​data​ ​is​ ​distributed.​ ​In
statistics,​ ​we​ ​are​ ​continually​ ​examining​ ​how​ ​data​ ​is​ ​distributed​ ​for​ ​certain​ ​variables,​ ​and​ ​seeking​ ​to​ ​understand
and​ ​model​ ​how​ ​to​ ​describe​ ​the​ ​signals​ ​in​ ​that​ ​data​ ​that​ ​may​ ​be​ ​a​ ​result​ ​from​ ​some​ ​noisy​ ​process​ ​(Konold​ ​&
Pollatsek,​ ​2002).​ ​Thus,​ ​we​ ​want​ ​to​ ​be​ ​able​ ​to​ ​characterize​ ​group​ ​tendencies.​ ​However,​ ​Wild​ ​(2006)​ ​cautions
us​ ​against​ ​a​ ​curriculum​ ​filled​ ​with​ ​describing​ ​univariate​ ​distributions​ ​and​ ​describes​ ​how​ ​comparing​ ​groups​ ​is
more​ ​interesting​ ​as​ ​we​ ​naturally​ ​wonder​ ​about​ ​how​ ​things​ ​change​ ​over​ ​time,​ ​in​ ​different​ ​settings,​ ​or​ ​with
different​ ​groups​ ​of​ ​people.

“Teaching​ ​about​ ​the​ ​features​ ​of​ ​distributions​ ​for​ ​beginners​ ​tends​ ​to​ ​be​ ​in​ ​the​ ​context​ ​of​ ​a​ ​single​ ​variable,
that​ ​is,​ ​in​ ​a​ ​univariate​ ​setting.​ ​All​ ​too​ ​often​ ​this​ ​has​ ​led​ ​to​ ​students​ ​being​ ​fed,​ ​year​ ​after​ ​year,​ ​a​ ​constant
diet​ ​of​ ​univariate​ ​data​ ​and​ ​contrived​ ​univariate​ ​situations.​ ​I​ ​plead​ ​with​ ​teachers​ ​to​ ​move​ ​on​ ​to​ ​multivariate
notions​ ​such​ ​as​ ​comparisons​ ​between​ ​groups​ ​and​ ​relationships​ ​between​ ​variables​ ​as​ ​soon​ ​as​ ​the​ ​most
basic​ ​foundations​ ​have​ ​been​ ​laid.​ ​This​ ​is​ ​necessary​ ​to​ ​avoid​ ​infecting​ ​students​ ​with​ ​the​ ​dread​ ​disease
univariatitis​ ​which​ ​is​ ​notorious​ ​for​ ​causing​ ​its​ ​victims​ ​to​ ​experience​ ​sensations​ ​of​ ​drowning​ ​in​ ​irrelevance
and,​ ​ultimately,​ ​death​ ​by​ ​boredom.”​ ​(p.​ ​19)

Indeed,​ ​comparing​ ​groups​ ​has​ ​become​ ​a​ ​common​ ​recommendation​ ​to​ ​assist​ ​learners​ ​in​ ​engaging​ ​in​ ​question
posing,​ ​using​ ​more​ ​sophisticated​ ​data​ ​analysis​ ​to​ ​describe​ ​group​ ​propensities​ ​(e.g.,​ ​proportion​ ​of​ ​cases​ ​in
certain​ ​ranges,​ ​measures​ ​of​ ​center​ ​and​ ​variability),​ ​and​ ​providing​ ​opportunities​ ​for​ ​inferential​ ​reasoning.

Students​ ​have​ ​a​ ​natural​ ​curiosity​ ​to​ ​wonder​ ​about​ ​whether​ ​one​ ​group​ ​is​ ​better​ ​or​ ​worse,​ ​or​ ​just​ ​merely​ ​different
than,​ ​other​ ​groups.​ ​Thus,​ ​this​ ​naturally​ ​leads​ ​to​ ​opportunities​ ​for​ ​examining​ ​a​ ​distribution​ ​for​ ​a​ ​particular
variable,​ ​and​ ​then​ ​separating​ ​that​ ​variable​ ​to​ ​examine​ ​differences​ ​among​ ​subgroups​ ​in​ ​a​ ​sample.​ ​This​ ​is
sometimes​ ​called​ ​disaggregated​ ​data​,​ ​where
the​ ​same​ ​variable​ ​is​ ​examined​ ​across​ ​different
subgroups,​ ​such​ ​as​ ​gender,​ ​education​ ​level,​ ​or
a​ ​specific​ ​categorical​ ​variable​ ​that​ ​makes​ ​sense
for​ ​the​ ​context.​ ​For​ ​example,​ ​noticing​ ​the
variability​ ​in​ ​the​ ​distribution​ ​of​ ​the​ ​average
teacher​ ​salary​ ​in​ ​the​ ​50​ ​US​ ​States​ ​and
Washington​ ​DC​ ​may​ ​make​ ​us​ ​wonder​ ​if​ ​we​ ​can
expect​ ​the​ ​same​ ​variability​ ​in​ ​salaries​ ​across
different​ ​regions​ ​of​ ​the​ ​US.​ ​(Data​ ​from​ ​NEA,​ ​2015)

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​Page​ ​1
​ eaching​ ​Statistics​ ​Through​ ​Inferential​ ​Reasoning​ ​MOOC​ ​for​ ​Educators​,
Lee,​ ​H.​ ​S.​ ​(2017).​ ​Using​ ​group​ ​comparisons​ ​to​ ​support​ ​inferential​ ​reasoning.​ ​In​ T
Friday​ ​Institute​ ​for​ ​Educational​ ​Innovation:​ ​NC​ ​State​ ​University,​ ​Raleigh,​ ​NC.​ ​Retrieved​ ​from:
https://fi-courses.s3.amazonaws.com/tsir/unit%202/TSIRUnit2RollerCoasterInvestigationHandout.pdf
 Separating​ ​data​ ​into​ ​regional​ ​subgroups​ ​and​ ​comparing
these​ ​distributions​ ​can​ ​provide​ ​an​ ​opportunity​ ​to​ ​make​ ​an
inference​ ​about​ ​what​ ​could​ ​be​ ​expected​ ​for​ ​salaries​ ​if​ ​you
are​ ​an​ ​educator​ ​in​ ​various​ ​regions.​ ​The​ ​graph​ ​indicates
that​ ​salaries​ ​in​ ​the​ ​Northeast​ ​tend​ ​to​ ​be​ ​much​ ​higher​ ​than
in​ ​other​ ​regions,​ ​with​ ​about​ ​75%​ ​of​ ​all​ ​Northeast​ ​states
being​ ​higher​ ​than​ ​75%​ ​or​ ​more​ ​of​ ​the​ ​salaries​ ​from​ ​states
in​ ​each​ ​of​ ​the​ ​other​ ​regions.​ ​However,​ ​we​ ​can​ ​see​ ​it​ ​is
not​ ​true​ ​for​ ​salaries​ ​from​ ​all​ ​states​ ​in​ ​the​ ​Northeast.​ ​Thus,
we​ ​would​ ​expect​ ​higher​ ​salaries​ ​in​ ​general,​ ​but​ ​cannot​ ​be
certain​ ​that​ ​a​ ​particular​ ​salary​ ​within​ ​a​ ​district​ ​or​ ​state​ ​would​ ​be​ ​much​ ​better​ ​than​ ​in​ ​other​ ​regions​ ​in​ ​the​ ​US.

Research​ ​has​ ​shown​ ​that​ ​describing​ ​a​ ​distribution​ ​of​ ​data​ ​in​ ​the​ ​aggregate​ ​where​ ​one​ ​characterizes​ ​whole
group​ ​tendencies,​ ​such​ ​as​ ​center​ ​and​ ​variability,
is​ ​a​ ​tough​ ​concept​ ​for​ ​early​ ​learners​ ​of​ ​statistics.
If​ ​students​ ​are​ ​asked​ ​questions​ ​where​ ​they​ ​have
to​ ​make​ ​some​ ​claim​ ​about​ ​how​ ​two​ ​or​ ​more
groups​ ​are​ ​similar​ ​or​ ​different,​ ​or​ ​which​ ​group
may​ ​be​ ​better​ ​or​ ​worse,​ ​then​ ​this​ ​seems​ ​to
encourage​ ​students​ ​to​ ​actually​ ​have​ ​to​ ​describe
distributions​ ​in​ ​more​ ​holistic​ ​terms​ ​because​ ​they
have​ ​to​ ​make​ ​comparative​ ​statements.​ ​This​ ​is
why​ ​Level​ ​B​ ​(see​ ​middle​ ​row​ ​within​ ​each​ ​phase)
in​ ​the​ ​SASI​ ​framework​ ​emphasizes​ ​comparison
of​ ​groups,​ ​attending​ ​to​ ​variability,​ ​and​ ​describing
distributions​ ​using​ ​proportional​ ​reasoning.​ ​We
need​ ​to​ ​provide​ ​ample​ ​opportunities​ ​to​ ​compare
groups​ ​using​ ​multiple​ ​statistical​ ​measures​ ​and
graphical​ ​representations​ ​to​ ​help​ ​learners
transition​ ​from​ ​a​ ​Level​ ​A​ ​sophistication​ ​to​ ​Level​ ​C​ ​sophistication.​ ​When​ ​students​ ​are​ ​ready​ ​for​ ​more
sophisticated​ ​ways​ ​of​ ​comparing​ ​groups,​ ​they​ ​can​ ​engage​ ​in​ ​more​ ​formal​ ​techniques​ ​such​ ​as​ ​randomization
tests​ ​for​ ​the​ ​difference​ ​in​ ​means,​ ​or​ ​t-tests​ ​when​ ​the​ ​sample​ ​assumptions​ ​are​ ​met.

As​ ​seen​ ​in​ ​the​ ​example​ ​provided​ ​above,​ ​comparing​ ​groups​ ​tasks​ ​are​ ​not​ ​restricted​ ​to​ ​only​ ​comparing​ ​two
groups.​ ​Students​ ​are​ ​quite​ ​capable,​ ​and​ ​should​ ​be​ ​exposed​ ​to,​ ​situations​ ​where​ ​they​ ​are​ ​comparing​ ​more​ ​than
two​ ​groups.​ ​These​ ​informal​ ​comparisons​ ​using​ ​group​ ​propensities,​ ​measures​ ​of​ ​central​ ​tendency,​ ​measures​ ​of
variability,​ ​and​ ​noting​ ​outliers,​ ​can​ ​help​ ​pave​ ​the​ ​way​ ​for​ ​more​ ​sophisticated​ ​approaches​ ​used​ ​later​ ​such​ ​as
using​ ​analysis​ ​of​ ​variance​ ​(ANOVA).

Using​ ​multivariate​ ​datasets​ ​and​ ​having​ ​students​ ​collect​ ​data​ ​where​ ​they​ ​must​ ​design​ ​data​ ​collection,​ ​or
experiments,​ ​to​ ​seek​ ​to​ ​understand​ ​if​ ​there​ ​are​ ​differences​ ​between​ ​groups​ ​(or​ ​conditions)​ ​are​ ​critical
experiences​ ​for​ ​promoting​ ​inferential​ ​reasoning​ ​through​ ​comparison​ ​of​ ​groups.

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​Page​ ​2
​ eaching​ ​Statistics​ ​Through​ ​Inferential​ ​Reasoning​ ​MOOC​ ​for​ ​Educators​,
Lee,​ ​H.​ ​S.​ ​(2017).​ ​Using​ ​group​ ​comparisons​ ​to​ ​support​ ​inferential​ ​reasoning.​ ​In​ T
Friday​ ​Institute​ ​for​ ​Educational​ ​Innovation:​ ​NC​ ​State​ ​University,​ ​Raleigh,​ ​NC.​ ​Retrieved​ ​from:
https://fi-courses.s3.amazonaws.com/tsir/unit%202/TSIRUnit2RollerCoasterInvestigationHandout.pdf
References
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Research​ ​in​ ​Mathematics​ ​Education​,​ ​33(4),​ ​259-289.
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Makar,​ ​K.​ ​(2013).​ ​Predict!​ ​Teaching​ ​statistics​ ​using​ ​informal​ ​statistical​ ​inference.​ A
Teacher,​ ​69​(4),​ ​34.
Pfannkuch,​ ​M.,​ ​Regan,​ ​M.,​ ​Wild,​ ​C.,​ ​&​ ​Horton,​ ​N.​ ​J.​ ​(2010).​ ​Telling​ ​data​ ​stories:​ ​Essential​ ​dialogues​ ​for
comparative​ ​reasoning.​ ​Journal​ ​of​ ​Statistics​ ​Education​,​ ​18​(1),​ ​1-38.
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http://iase-web.org/documents/SERJ/SERJ5(2)_Wild.pdf​.
Wild,​ ​C.​ ​J.,​ ​Pfannkuch,​ ​M.,​ ​Regan,​ ​M.,​ ​&​ ​Horton,​ ​N.​ ​J.​ ​(2011).​ ​Towards​ ​more​ ​accessible​ ​conceptions​ ​of
statistical​ ​inference.​ ​Journal​ ​of​ ​the​ ​Royal​ ​Statistical​ ​Society:​ ​Series​ ​A​ ​(Statistics​ ​in​ ​Society)​,​ ​174​(2),​ ​247-295.
Zieffler,​ ​A.,​ ​Garfield,​ ​J.,​ ​delMas,​ ​R.,​ ​&​ ​Reading,​ ​C.​ ​(2008).​ ​A​ ​framework​ ​to​ ​support​ ​research​ ​on​ ​informal
inferential​ ​reasoning.​ ​Statistics​ ​Education​ ​Research​ ​Journal​,​ ​7​(2),​ ​40-58.

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​Page​ ​3
​ eaching​ ​Statistics​ ​Through​ ​Inferential​ ​Reasoning​ ​MOOC​ ​for​ ​Educators​,
Lee,​ ​H.​ ​S.​ ​(2017).​ ​Using​ ​group​ ​comparisons​ ​to​ ​support​ ​inferential​ ​reasoning.​ ​In​ T
Friday​ ​Institute​ ​for​ ​Educational​ ​Innovation:​ ​NC​ ​State​ ​University,​ ​Raleigh,​ ​NC.​ ​Retrieved​ ​from:
https://fi-courses.s3.amazonaws.com/tsir/unit%202/TSIRUnit2RollerCoasterInvestigationHandout.pdf