ABSTRACT

Elections in Nigeria prior to 2011, were characterized by high level of

propaganda, dissemination of fake and uncoordinated information, scarcity
of airtime and space for citizen’s participation and other forms of traditional
media fostered electoral prejudices. Electorates were at the mercy of the
tradition media; Television, Radio, Newspaper, Magazines, etc. to interact
with their candidates. The wide gap that existed between the electorates
and the candidates denied them their rights to properly asses such
candidates before the polls, and in the process, the average class often
stayed away from elections, because they believe that their votes never
count. With the advent of the social media, following the productive USA
social media political usage experience, where the then Senator Barack
Obama, successfully used the social media for online fundraising and support
accumulation that won him the presidential position in 2008. Many nations
and politicians across the globe have continued to embrace the platform to
mobilise their citizens and candidates towards active participation in the
political process. Nigeria had the first real test of social media use for political
purpose during the 2011 General Elections. This study examines the
experiment of social media use for political participation in Nigeria, using the
2015 Presidential elections as the case study of analysis. The study is
anchored on Cybernetics or Communications Theory, and employed Data
Content analysis in interpreting the findings of the study. The findings
revealed that social media grossly influenced the 2015 presidential elections,
it was pivotal in the dethroning of the political stereotype pervasive in the
country before then; it introduced a paradigm shift on who constitutes the
political power brokers, as social media users were discovered to be among
the factors that influenced the results of the 2015 presidential elections. The
research made some recommendations which included: (A) Establishment of
social media regulating agencies in Nigeria to manage social media sites and
online communities and (B) Social media oriented sensitizations to enable
the percentage of Nigerian with little or no knowledge of its workability
politically, to embrace and get more acquainted with it.
 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Social media sites, applications and packages each targets a specific

different audience, and uses different tools to allow people to share ideas,

videos, photos, links and chats, and to form networks of people connected

by common interests. The increasing number of social media users has

attracted the attention of even the business sectors to the extent that they

now include social media or internet advertising to their marketing plans,

due to social media's targeting capabilities and its less expensive nature

unlike the mass media. The realization of the relevance of social media is

not just limited to the commercial sector which sees it as an avenue for

market expansion and sales promotion, but also to the political sector,

whereby politicians employ it as a tool for political campaigns and policies

dissemination, while the electorates use it as medium for political

participation.
With millions joining the conversation from all over the country, social media

sites are now effective way for politicians to reach their constituents. In the

2008 U.S. Presidential Election, then Senator Barack Obama used social

media to engage and empower his volunteers, raising millions of dollars

online. His campaign was not the first to use the internet to engage and raise

funds, but it was the first to do so with that level of success, and it is clear

their work transferred into actual votes. Unlike the traditional media

campaigns they are usually very expensive, investigations have shown social

media to be a very cheap medium for reaching out to the electorates. It has

grown to be a necessity in all forms of political campaigns, ensuring ease in

the dissemination of information and maintaining of candidates-electorates

relationship until the elections and even after. The successful outcome of

implementation of the social media in U.S.A 2008 presidential election has

engineered a kind of political social media revolution across the globe and

this development has caused politicians from different parts of world,

including Nigeria to borrow a leaf from America's experience. Now social

media campaign has become an integral attribute of modern day politics.

Democracy is widely acknowledged as the best form of government in most

parts of the world today. Elections, which represent the most modern and

universally accepted process through which individuals are chosen to

represent a body or community in a larger entity or government is one of

the cardinal features of democracy. This is so because in a democracy, the

authority of the government derives from the consent of the governed. This

is perhaps why democracy is commonly referred to as the government of

the people by the people and for the people. Usually, a democratic election

would characteristically be competitive, periodic, inclusive, definitive and free

and fair. Nigeria’s democracy may be considered nascent when compared to

the older democracies of the western world. Be that as it may, the 2011

general elections have gone down in the history of the country as one of the

best elections in the last few years of uninterrupted civilian rule in the land.

It was observed that one remarkable thing about the 2011 general elections

was the adoption of social media, especially the Facebook by the politicians,

the political parties and the electorates as a platform for political

participation. The importance attached to social media in the 2011 general

elections was better explained by President Goodluck Jonathan's decision to

declare his intention to run for the highest political office in the land, on
Facebook. Jonathan had on Wednesday, September 15, 2010 informed his

217,000 fans on the world’s most popular networking platform (Facebook)

of his intent; 24 hours later, 4,000 more fans joined his page, and by the

day of the election, on 16 April 2011, he had over half a million followers.

His closest rivals – Alhaji Mohammed Buhari of the CPC, Nuhu Ribadu of the

ACN and Alhaji Shakarau of the ANPP were also among those that made

heavy presence on Facebook and other social media platforms. In addition

to the approximately 3 million registered Nigerians on Facebook and 60,000

on Twitter, almost every institution involved in Nigeria's elections conducted

an aggressive social networking outreach, including the Independent

National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties, candidates, media

houses, civil society groups and even the police. Apart from the presidential

candidates, many governorship aspirants, Senatorial and House of Assembly

seat contenders from the various states of the federation also embarked on

aggressive use of social media platforms especially the Facebook to

disseminate their political messages, woo electorates and support groups

towards the actualization of their goals. Before the advent of the new media,

the older or conventional media – radio, television, newspapers, magazines,

etc, ruled the world, and had directly or indirectly blocked popular
participation in the electoral process. This is because there has always been

scarcity of space and airtime given by the conventional media to the citizens

to have their say in politics, governance and in the electoral process.

Conventional media critics believe that voters were left with paid political

propaganda containing only meaningless slogans, making them disinterested

and cynical about politics. They argue that there is absence of serious debate

in the conventional media that could make people to learn the substance of

issues and policies proposals as well as related arguments, and that this

disallows citizens from participating actively in political discourse. Meanwhile,

social media is interactive, web-based media. They belong to the new genre

of media that focus on social networking, allowing users to express

themselves, interact with friends, share personal information, as well as

publish their own views on the internet. The ubiquitous access of these

online devices no doubt, has democratizing effects as they offer citizens

opportunities for more fully engagement in the political process. Writing on

this development, (Madueke et al 2015), in his paper Life in the Age of Self-

Assembling message observes that: The value of the communication

experience has undergone a sea-change; from the need to share it, to the

need to share in it. Technology and social media in particular have brought
power back to the people; with such technologies, established authorities

are now undermined and users are now the experts. This implies that people

can now consume media as wanted and needed rather than allowing media

producers to schedule consumption time and content. A person can now

communicate to anywhere from any place at any time. Again, using social

media is less expensive than the outrageous political advertisements on the

older media. The new media is flexible, accessible and affordable. They

promote democratization of media, alter the meaning of geographic

distance, and allow for increase in the volume and speed of communication.

They are portable due to the mobile nature; they are interactive and open

to all. Nigeria experimented the use of this technology for political discourse

during the 2011 general elections. The platform gave voice to many Nigerian

politicians and electorates alike to make their voice heard in the electoral

process. With the successful implementation of the social media in the 2011

general elections, the stake of prominence of social media in Nigeria has

drastically gone up, thus in this work interest is on exposing how the political

parties of APC and PDP alongside their candidates, implemented the social

media in their quests for the position of the President in the 2015 elections
and on how such implementations impacted on the outcome of the elections

for the position of the President.

1.2 Statement of the Research Problem

Among the qualities that can grant a candidate the advantage of emerging

elected into a political office over his opponent have been identified to

include the popularity of the candidate and that of his political party. And it

is a well-known fact that among the means of gaining popularity as it relates

to electioneering in Nigeria in particular, and the world in general, is through

the efficacy of the electioneering campaigns; entailing the ability of the

candidates involved to not only reach out to the electorates but as well their

ability to remain in touch, making positive imprints on the mindsets of the

electorates, up till the polling hour. Prior to Nigeria 2011 general elections,

campaigns in the country, used to be limited to mainly face to face

interactions and the usage of traditional media (print and electronic).

Notwithstanding, it has come to general notice that such is no longer the

case, since the experience of America during their 2008 presidential

elections, there have been a paradigm shift in the rest parts of the world,

shifting the over emphasis placed on mass media to a rapidly growing

domineering influence of social media on electioneering processes. This

latest development has raised lots of curiosity in Nigerians, especially the

politicians whom seems to be eager to experiment whether or not the

implementation of social media in their political quests can guarantee them

success. Thus it is against this backdrop, that this research is directed

towards assessing the roles of the social media in aiding the emergence of

Gen. Muhammdu Buhari of APC as the winner of the presidential position

against Dr. Goodluck E. Jonathan of PDP whom despite being the incumbent

President, lost the poll. The pertinency of this research is to grant the

researcher the ability to draw pragmatic conclusions on the place of social

media in the contemporary political sector. This study is to investigate

whether or not a candidate's popularity on social media and the ability to

accumulate massive supports on social media leads to winning of the election

for public office after the poll. The findings of this enquiry will serve as a

foundation that will either reinforce or debunk the thesis that the social

media can promote the possibility of winning an election ".

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The general objective of this research is to investigate the rapidly increasing

momentum of prominence the social media is gaining in the political sector,

which is aimed at exposing its contributions to the sector using the analysis

of the roles it played in the 28th March 2015 Presidential elections in Nigeria.

Other objectives of the study of will include;

1. To appraise the political parties of PDP and APC incorporation of the

social media in their pre 2015 presidential election campaigns.

2. To expose if the social media in anyway contributed to Gen.

Muhammadu Buhari winning of the election and Dr. Goodluck E. Jonathan's

loss.

3. To investigate if the social media in anyway acted as a check on

electoral malpractices during the 2015 presidential elections.

4. To evaluate whether the implementation of social media in political

sector especially elections has any effects on the political relevance of the

mass media.

5. To evaluate the reliance on social media as instruments of political

campaigns.

6. To examine the extent to which social media supporters of a candidate

or party exercise the same support on Election Day by coming out to vote.
1.4 Significance of the Study

Social media, has become almost an insperatable part of human life. In

recent times, social media have evolved new forms of political participation

and as well greater power consolidation. According to Policy and legal

Advocacy Center (2012), the 2011 elections in Nigeria, so witnessed a

remarkable usage of the social media as tools for political communication. It

was used for campaigns, personality promotions and as well a tool of

destruction and tarnishing of rival candidates and party’s reputation. Thus

neglecting the impacts of social media in not just local but international

politics, is a misnomer. The relevance of this study, will expose the level of

influence the social media has acquired in modern contemporary political

societies. The study will serve as a foundation that would help politicians

understand the need to efficiently combine the social media and traditional

media for efficacy in their interactions and relations with the electorates. The

study will also help the users of social media, especially the youths to

understand the power of effective usage of the social media and how it can

help them gain command in politics.

Conclusively, the study will help the governments officials understand the

level of harm the social media lacuna they create between the interval of
assumption of office and the expiration of their tenures in office, can do to

their political career.

1.5 The scope of the study

This study is limited to the social media activities as it relates to the 28March

2015 presidential election. Though many parties were accredited by the

Independent National Electoral Commission to stand the election, the parties

of interest in this work are the two runner up parties which were APC and

PDP and their presidential candidates. Majorly, the study centers around the

social media of Twitter and Facebook with very minimum links on other social

media networks. The study is concerned with the online activities in Twitter

and Facebook between the periods of 1st August 2014 up till 30th of April

2015 pertaining the election. It takes in consideration Facebook chats, tweet

updates, video uploads, voice notes, news flashes and new headlines

centering on electoral discussions, the candidates political affairs, the parties

activities in preparation and anticipation of the 2015 Presidential elections.

Data considered viable include views, opinions, debates, reactions and

counter reactions of Nigerian social media populace in respect to the political

parties of PDP and APC and their Presidential Candidates.

1.6 Limitations of the Study

The primary limitation of this study is that, the investigation is based on third

party point of view, entailing that since the study wasn’t conducted during

the period of the election and data not adduced directly from the scene, the

authenticity of the date available about it in the internet is not guaranteable,

as it may have undergone some form of adulteration within the gap of when

recorded and now the research is being conducted.

Also the objectivity of the researcher's positions on the findings of the

investigation is not guaranteed as there are chances of researcher's bias

interference in the course of interpreting the findings of this study and the

drawing of an objective conclusion.

Furthermore, human behavior being the object matter of this research

cannot be subjected to lab experiment, thus is unpredictable and subject to

change, therefore conclusions drawn based on the findings of this

investigation if implemented in a future similar, but different case may fail

to yield the same results.

There is also time and money constrictions which made the researcher to

limit the data source to just secondary sources within his disposal.
The data generated in the course of this investigation may not be

representative of the positions of every electorate on social media as it was

not adduced directly from the participants.

1.7 Statement of Research Question

1. Does the campaign promises or messages acceptance on social media

promote or demote a political party or a candidate's chances of winning

elections?

2. What are the effects of social media lacuna between a candidate or

his party and the electorates on political dreams?

3. Does the social media play any role in promoting political participation

in the state?

4. Does winning of pre-election social media poll, transcend into actual

votes and supports on the day of election?

1.8 Conceptual Definition of Terms.

Operational definition of Social media;

Social media are computer-mediated tools that allow people to create, share

or exchange information, ideas, and pictures/videos in virtual communities

and networks. Social media is the collective of online communications

channels dedicated to community-based input, interactions, content-sharing

and collaboration". Websites and applications dedicated to forums, micro

blogging, social networking, social bookmarking, social curation, and wikis

are among the different types of social media. Furthermore, social media

depend on mobile and web-based technologies to create highly interactive

platforms through which individuals and communities share, co-create,

discuss, and modify user-generated content.

Objectives of Social media

(a) Guaranteed Meeting Places:

When attempting to plan meetings with colleagues or friends, having access

to social networking sites expands the available times and places in which

meetings can occur. Individuals can meet each other and chat over Face

book, or open a video chat through Google+. Rather than having to travel

to specific locations, or try to work times out in which everyone is near a

central location, people can plan to meet at times that work for all of their

schedules.

(b) Keep in Touch with Family:

Keeping in contact with family through the phone or even over email

presents a challenge. Instead, social networking sites allow the individual to

share their day to day life in a secure but public forum, which family can

watch and experience. Face book, for example, allows people to share

events, images, and thoughts in real time, during the course of any day.

Family and friends can then experience all the things that someone does,

and comment on them. Then, they share in the experience, rather than just

being "informed" about them during weekly phone calls.

(c) Professional Networking:

For professionals and academics, social networking sites allow users to

create networks of like-minded people. Academics find other scholars to

share research or ideas, or simply to talk to and "get their name out there."

Professionals find mutual friends and possible clients, employers, or business

partners. Social networking expands the horizons of what sort of contacts

people can make in their professional lives.

 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

The gradual switch from traditional media to social media use in mobilizing

and campaigning to voters by politicians is a reality that has come to stay in

today’s modern world, and if taken advantage of can open up the possibility

for politicians to structure their campaigns to address voters with different

beliefs on a more personal level and consequently influence voter’s attitude

and behaviour offline. As social media use for political activities gradually

increases in popularity and scope, it is of utmost importance to know if there

are changes in voter attitudes and behaviour based on online information

and interaction. It is also of necessity to investigate the influence of various

political campaign sites and other social media sites over voters’ political and

cultural perceptions and the way that they communicate and act afterwards.

It is a known fact that social media has significantly altered the accessibility

and availability of information on political parties and candidates in recent

times. Instead of gathering basic knowledge from news stories and websites,

users of social media gather information, and at times, opinions, using

interactive sites where communication is continuous between voters and

politicians and where information flows directly from politicians’ themselves

to voters’ via Facebook and Twitter pages etc. It therefore remains a fact

that most voters are likely to change their minds, beliefs and behaviors based

on information they get from these sites.

2.1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This research study is situated within the limit of Media Systems Dependency

Theory

Media Systems Dependency Theory

Considering the impact of social media on the public and the public’s

relationship with social media, it becomes clear that social media have

become a part of the way we talk, socialize and spend our time; social media

has begun to take precedence over other communication and traditional

media outlets due to its heightened accessibility and usability. Hence,

dependence on social media to provide individuals with rewarding

interactions has become greater over the years. This makes social media a

particularly effective communication tool, enabling succinct communication

with individuals who have already expressed an interest. More importantly it

enables public figures “to build deeper relationships” with the public on a
more personal level (Comm, 2009) with clients, partners and individuals,

creating an easy, far-reaching campaign tactic for modern day politicians.

Media system dependency theory (MSD), developed by Sandra Ball-Rokeach

and Melvin Defleur in 1976 is a theory grounded in classical sociological

literature which posits that media and their audiences should be studied in

the context of larger social systems (Wikipedia.com, 2015). MSD ties

together the interrelations of broad social systems, mass media, and the

individual into a comprehensive explanation of media effects. According to

Baran and Davis, the media systems dependency theory posits that “the

more an individual depends on having needs gratified by media use, the

more important the media’s role in the person’s life, and therefore the more

influence on his or her attitude and behaviour” (Baran & Davis, 2006).

This dependency on media emerges from three major relationships

(Andreadis & Chadjipadelis, 2005)

• Relationship between society and the media; in this relationship, media

access and availability are regarded as the preceding factor to an individual’s

experience with the media. The kind of media dependence on societal

systems widely varies and cuts across political, economic, and cultural strata.
• Relationship between media and the audience; This relationship

constitutes the key variable in this theory because it affects how the public

might use a mass medium and this relationship varies across media systems.

The more significant the information needs are, the stronger the motivation

to seek for related information hence greater dependency on the medium of

sourcing for the information. Thus, the more likelihood for the media to

affect the audience.

• Relationship between society and the audience; every society

influences consumers’ needs and motives for media use; and provide norms,

values, knowledge, and laws for its members. Social systems can function

as an alternative to the media by performing roles of the media.

 SOCIETY MEDIA
(Degree of Structural stability (Number and centrality of info
varies) function varies)

AUDIENCE
(Degree of dependency on
media information varies)

EFFECTS
(Cognitive, Affective, Behavioral)

Ball-Rokeach and DeFleur suggested that the cognitive, behavioral and

affective consequences of media use are based on characteristics of both the

individuals and their immediate social environment (Ladd & Lenz, 2011).

There are five types of cognitive effects that can be exerted on an audience,

first is the creation and resolution of ambiguity. Ambiguity occurs when

audiences receive inadequate or incomplete information about their

immediate social world. High level of ambiguity creates and audiences are

more likely to turn to mass media to resolve ambiguity. Ambiguity tends to

be prevalent during times of major social change or conflict such as election

periods.

Agenda-setting which is the second effect is another reason why dependency

theory is often referred to as a “comprehensive” theory of media effects.

This is because it incorporates the entire theory of agenda-setting within its

theoretical framework. Like any other effect, media agenda-setting effects

are heightened during times when the audience’s needs and dependency on

media are high.

Third is attitude formation. Media generally exposes the audience to

completely new people and new ideas, such as political figures and

celebrities, physical objects such as car safety mechanisms etc that the

audience will eventually come to form attitudes about. Dependency does not

suggest that the media is rigidly fixed or set in its ability to influence

attitudes, but the theory argues that media plays a role in selecting objects

and people for which the audience eventually form attitudes about. If an

individual is experiencing greater media dependency, it is therefore expected

that such person will form more complex attitudes about these people,

objects etc than individuals with low media dependency (Ladd & Lenz, 2011).
The media also has the potential cognitive effect of expanding people's belief

systems over time. Media creates a kind of "expansion" of citizen's beliefs by

disseminating information about other people, places, and things.

Enlargement of people’s belief systems implies a broadening or enlarging of

individual beliefs in a certain category or aspect of the society. These beliefs

eventually meet with and are incorporated into an already existing value

system regarding religion, free enterprise, work, ecology, patriotism,

recreation, and even family values.

Lastly, is value clarification and conflict by the media. The media clarify

values such as equality, freedom, honesty, forgiveness etc often by

precipitating information about value conflicts. When conflicts play out in the

mass media, the value conflicts are identified, resulting in the audience

forming their own value positions and beliefs. Such a position may be painful

to articulate because it can force a choice between mutually incompatible

goals and the means for obtaining them. However, in the process of trying

to decide which is more important in a particular case, general value

priorities can become clarified.

Ball-Rokeach and DeFleur mentions several possible affective media effects

that are more likely to occur during times of heightened dependency

(Panagopoulos, 2010). First is desensitization, which posits that prolonged

exposure to violent content on the media can have a "numbing" effect on

audiences, promoting insensitivity or the lack of desire toward helping others

when violent encounters happen in real life.

Second, exposure to news messages or TV dramas that portray crime-ridden

cities can increase people's fear or anxiety about living in or even traveling

to the particular city. Media can also have effects on morale and feelings of

alienation. The degree of positive or negative mass media depictions of social

groups can cause fluctuations in people's sense of morale in belonging to

that group or in their sense of alienation from that group.

Ball-Rokeach and DeFleur identified two broad categories of behavioral

effects of the media on the audience (Putman et al, 2010). The first broad

category is referred to as the "activation" effects, which implies instances in

which media audiences do something they would not otherwise have done

as a consequence of receiving media messages on a particular issue or event.

Behavioral effects are largely thought to work through cognitive and affective

effects. For instance, a woman who read a news story about sexism in the

workplace might form an attitude toward sexism which will create a negative
emotional state, eventually resulting in her joining a women’s rights march

in her local community.

The second broad category of behavioral effects is referred to as

"deactivation," and refers to instances in which audiences would have

otherwise done something, but don't do it as a consequence of media

messages received. For instance, primary presidential campaigns are usually

longer and have increasingly used more media including social media to

target the audience. As such, primary campaigns might elicit negative

attitudes toward the electoral process and negative affective states such as

boredom or disgust that in turn might make the electorates not turn out to

vote.

2.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The relationship between social media and politics is rooted in the desire for

change. Today the public at large is using the online information and

networking access to find solutions to many challenges. Civil society with its

rising frustration over political apathy, is trying to use social media for a

change. This online revolution may be less about technology and more about

the gradually changing human behavior.

Social media connects people and gets them talking with the enabling of

content sharing. Social media also becomes more meaningful because it

allows politicians know the voters, interact with them and listen to their

views, suggestions and opinions. The social media has an immense impact

on its target audience, with the creation of an enabling environment for

people to participate. When some of these users actively engage in political

debates, they become great tools in spreading the word and influencing

other people’s opinion. More and more Nigerians are getting on the social

media bandwagon, and this will increase with time, According to the Nigerian

Communications Commission NCC, the number of Internet users on the

Global System for Mobile communications (GSM) networks in Nigeria had

reached 81 million in January 2015. This implies that Nigerians are gradually

embracing the use of social media as a powerful tool to manage their lives

and stay in touch with happenings around them in different aspects of the

economy, politics inclusive. This came into play in the recently conducted

2015 polls in the country where a lot of internet users participated in several

online polls to select candidates, with a lot of political parties sponsoring

online ads, campaigns and interactive forums.

Several politicians also had online sites, blogs and chat pages such as

facebook, twitter, Youtube channels where people interacted with and

discussed political issues including fervent emerging issues such as book

haram, corruption etc. that changed the political landscape of the country.

This contributed significantly to the way information passed round the

country and influenced a lot of voter’s behaviour and attitudes towards the

elections.

Social networking sites can be described as networks of friends for social or

professional interactions (Trusov et.al, 2009). Online social networks have

completely changed the spreading of information by making it easy to share

and digest information on the internet (Akrimi & Khemakhem, 2012). Social

media has also influenced consumer behavior from information acquisition

to post purchase behavior such as dissatisfaction statements or behaviors

(Mangold & Faulds, 2009) and patterns of Internet usage (Laroche et al.,

2012). These sites therefore act as a great medium for view mobilization.

People feel free in sharing their thoughts on any issue and people are

gradually raising their voices against social vices such as violation of Human

Rights, corruption and other social issues.

Role of social media in influencing voter behaviour

It is believed that social media plays a very valuable role throughout an

election process which goes a long way in swaying voter’s opinions, beliefs

and attitudes (Aindrila et al, 2014). The roles of social media during elections

include Sourcing and Sharing Information

New and existing voters go online to seek information, address queries and,

most importantly, to form opinions. The same is widely influenced by the

social media chatter, information provided by political parties, the ability to

participate in a dialogue with the voters, and the overall sentiment prevalent

around the leaders up for voting. The interactions online also become an

enabler for the undecided voter population to make informed choices and

decisions.

Positive impact of social media on voters

• Access to new voters

• One on one platform for politicians to participate in a dialogue with

citizens.

• Accessibility to all.

• Powerful platform to educate and inform on current issues.

• Transparent, fast and quick.

• Source of positive influence for political parties.

Negative impact of social networking

• It is a medium that cannot be entirely controlled.

• It is prone to hacking.

• Slack or weak responses can lead to a vicious backlash from the

audience.

• Negative sentiments online can influence election.

• Misrepresentation of facts and publishing of propaganda

2.3 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

Politicians, citizens and journalists are increasingly adopting new social

media like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube to support their political

purposes, be it to engage other stakeholders in the political public sphere,

campaign, disseminate and retrieve information, or contribute to rational

critical debate (Sauter & Bruns, 2013). An overview of the Nigerian social

media literature suggests that there has been very little research on the

impact of the social media on political campaign and voter’s behavior in

particular.
Previous studies conducted on the effects of social media use on political

participation and influence on voter attitudes indicates that internet access

and exposure may increase political knowledge and; as a result, increase

participation among voters with a significant change in perception of

candidates regardless of political affiliation or socioeconomic status. Despite

the internet’s potential cost effectiveness for reaching diverse groups of

voters, the challenge of effectively using it as a medium to influence voter

attitudes and behaviour remains.

The influence of social media on political participation has been studied

extensively in the United States (Chaffe & Kanihan, 1997; Golan & Wanta,

2001). In taking advantage of new communication platforms during the 2008

presidential election, Barack Obama proved the benefit of using social media

for political campaigns. Also, in a study conducted by Matthew James and

Masahiro Yamamoto published in Mass Communication and Society, they

provided insight into the social media habits of young people (adults under

the age of 30), a demographic targeted by Obama in the 2008 campaign.

The study found that young people tend to get political information from

social media more than any other age group. It is becoming clear that online
tools play a significant role in shaping public opinion and setting political

agendas (Wallsten, 2007; Woolley et al. 2010).

Furthermore, research from PEW Internet Research Center showed that in

2008, a record-breaking 46% of Americans used the internet, email or text

messaging on their mobile devices to gain information about campaigns,

share opinions and mobilize others (Rainie & Smith, 2008). Obama’s

supporters made up a substantial amount of this group. A notable 39% of

voters are using the Internet to get unfiltered campaign materials, including

videos of debates, speeches, announcements, political position papers and

transcripts.

In addition, the 2008 US presidential elections integrated other media that

was not previously used in the campaign process. During the months leading

up to the election, 35% of Americans said they had watched political videos

online, 6% of Americans had made a political contribution online and 10%

said they had used social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to

gather information about candidates and become involved in their

campaigns. Internet users under 30 include an important part of this group:

Two-thirds of them have a social networking profile and of those, half use

their sites to engage in the political process or obtain information.

Voter mobilization experiments (Gerber, et al, 2008; Bryan et al, 2011;

Nickerson, 2008) have shown that most methods of contacting potential

voters have small effects (if any) on turnout rates, ranging from 1% to 10%.

However, the ability to reach large populations online means that even small

effects could yield behavioural changes for millions of people. Furthermore,

as many elections are competitive, these changes could affect electoral

outcomes.

In a randomized controlled trial of political mobilization messages delivered

to 61 million Facebook users during the 2010 US congressional elections,

results show that the messages directly influenced political self-expression,

information seeking and real-world voting behaviour of millions of people.

Furthermore, the messages not only influenced the users who received them

but also the users’ friends, and friends of friends. The effect of social

transmission on real-world voting was greater than the direct effect of the

messages themselves, and nearly all the transmission occurred between

‘close friends’ who were more likely to have a face-to-face relationship.

These results therefore suggest that strong ties are instrumental for

spreading both online and real-world behaviour in human social networks.

These findings thereby show that online political mobilization can have a
direct effect on political self-expression, information seeking and real-world

voting behaviour, and that messages including cues from an individual’s

social network are more effective than information only appeals.

In Nigeria, dearth of literature exists on the subject matter of relationship

between the social media and voting behaviour. However, in recent times

there has been an increasing evidence that information gotten from social

media goes a long way in helping potential voters make decision and form

opinions about candidates and their party as evidenced by the recently

conducted presidential polls on March 28th 2015, where the social media

was impressively and massively used by several political parties in Nigeria to

advance the cause of their candidates and reach millions of online voters.
 CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 THE RESEARCH DESIGN

The research design to be used in this study is the descriptive survey

research design. Descriptive survey research design involves collecting data

from existing phenomena in a natural setting, in order to test hypotheses

and answer research questions raised in the study.

According to Nachemas et al. (1989:75), a research design can be

described as the logical model of proof that allows the researcher draw

inferences concerning relationships among the variables under investigation.

3.2 POPULATION OF THE STUDY

Every citizen that has attained the voting age of 18 years and

above as stipulated by the Nigeria Electoral law and has all other rights that

qualifies him/her to vote and be voted for in Lagos state form the population

of this study.

3.3 SAMPLE SIZE

 The researcher used One hundred and fifty (respondents) voters that

were randomly selected across the twenty (20) local government area of

Lagos State using simple random sampling.

3.4 INSTRUMENTATION

The instrument for the study was questionnaire. The questionnaire

was tagged “Effect of social medial on 2015 election”. The questionnaire was

made up of two sections. Section ‘A’ designed to seek the demographic

factors while Section ‘B’ was a four point Likert Scale type designed to elicit

workers’ opinions on the main subject of effect of social media on voter’s

behaviour.

3.5 VALIDITY OF INSTRUMENT

Validity of instrument is the degree to which a test measures what it

is supposed to measure. To meet this objective adequately, the instrument

was validated by the supervisor and two other experts who examined the

questions against the objective and found them to have a content validity.

3.6 RELIABILITY OF THE INSTRUMENT

The reliability of the instrument was developmental using the

Crombech alpha internal consistency reliability formula.

 The instrument was administered to 50 subjects and the data collected

were analyzed and a reliability co-efficient obtained shows the instrument

has satisfied internal consistency reliability.

3.7 PROCEDURE FOR DATA COLLECTION

The survey instrument for this study, that is, the questionnaire was

handed over to each voter to fill in their responses. The survey was

conducted at different communities in Lagos State. The respondents were

informed to be anonymous; that the data gathered is purely for academic

purpose alone and that all the information given in the questionnaire would

be treated in strict confidence.

All the questionnaires were collected on the spot, after the respondents

have finished filling them.

3.8 METHOD OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Having gathered the data through the administration of questionnaire, the

collected data will be coded, tabulated, and analyzed according to the

research question and hypothesis.

In order to analyze the data collected effectively and efficiently for easy

management and accuracy, the simple percentage method was the

analytical tools used for this research project and a sample size of one

hundred and fifty (150) will be represented by 100% for easy analysis of the

responses. Furthermore, SPSS will also be used for the purpose of hypothesis

testing.
 CHAPTER FOUR

THE SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS IN

NIGERIA.

The 2011 Nigerian general elections, has been documented as the first

elections in Nigeria in which the social media played a significant part in the

electoral battle of the contestants (Kperogi, 2012). However, nothing

demonstrates the power of the social media better than the 2015 presidential

election in Nigeria. Many movements sprang up in the social and online

media, some independent some put together by politicians to pursue their

political ambition and election into office.

The two frontline candidates of the PDP and the APC were most aggressive

in their social media campaigns. It was a no hold barred game of

information, disinformation, misinformation, fake news, red herring,

propaganda all carefully designed to hoodwink the unsuspecting electorate.

The idea was to dominate and control the conversation. Every dubious trick

in the books was employed, and caution was thrown to the wind. Bogus

social media accounts were created, smear campaigns where launched,

doubtful information and propaganda were freely unleashed on the gullible

public.

Surfing through this cyber mess was a double-edged sword. At once the

millions of people who sourced for information from these platforms where

happy to have the information they needed right at their fingertips and also

share their views and thoughts. However, how much of this information were

true and free of manipulation was a different ball game.

The online and social media platforms also provided politicians the

opportunity for advertising, campaigns and deepened conversations. While

the mainstream media like newspapers, radio and television remained

relevant in the heat up to the presidential election, we can say that a

dominant part of the information that was dished out to citizens, especially

the youths had its root in the social media. The reason for this is

understandable. The social media could break stories faster while the

mainstream media was forced to play catch up. Often most of the stories

that were eventually carried by the mainstream media had already lost trend

in the social media. This is logical. The mainstream media needs to

painstakingly verify the truthfulness of a story before going to press. Unlike

the social media, they are not likely to escape the loss of reputation or worse
prosecution if it turns out that they cannot defend the truthfulness of a story.

Safe to say that most of the stories eventually carried by the mainstream

media were sourced from the social media. It was common for most political

office seekers and their sponsors and supporters to take to Twitter and

Facebook to send out political messages with carefully crafted hashtags.

There were popular ones like: #GEJ_WINS, #CHANGE, etc. Politicians

especially the two front-runners also staged online events to engage with

the youths to drive their messages home. Many of the campaign teams also

opened special purpose websites and apps to engage with their supporters.

Forwardnigeria.ng” for instance, was the PDP platform while the APC

responded with “Apcgmbpyo.org.” The two frontline candidates also

employed customised applications in support of their presidential bids. The

candidate of the APC, Mohammadu Buhari had the “APC Situation Room,”

and Goodluck Jonathan had, “Forward Nigeria.” As if these were not enough

the internet was awash with pop-up advertisements sponsored by both

frontline candidates. It was a field day for online advertisements (Ebhota,

2015).

Pollsters also took to the internet to gauge the level of support for their

preferred candidate. Prominent ones were: “Sahara Reporters” and “Reno

Omokri”, (“2015 Presidential Election: Buhari floors…” 2015; “2015

Elections: Buhari leads Jonathan…”, 2015)

African Independent Television (AIT), at different occasion, hosted polls on

its website to measure the level of support for its preferred candidate. Suffice

to say however that some of these polls were quickly pulled down when the

results seemed not to be going the way of the poll’s sponsors.

As herculean as this task was there were civil society groups who set up

credible online resources designed to help citizens to seek the truth and

engage constructively. Good examples were, “Nigeriadecides2015” and

“Naijapolls.”

Facebook was the most active platform. In the presidential election, the two

frontline candidates of the APC and the PDP set up special teams to manage

social media using several fronts to open Facebook accounts as an avenue

to attack the opponent and post favorable comments about their principal.

It got so heated that, the governor of Jigawa state at the time, Sule Lamido,

remarked prior to the presidential election that, “If you go through the social

media, what they paint is that APC has won almost 99 percent” He described

the then opposition political party, APC as an “amalgamation” of desperation,

saying the country is too big for them to govern. (“Lamido: If you follow

social media…”, 2015).

The then spokesperson of the incumbent President, Rueben Abati was

quoted to have earlier called social media critics of the incumbent

administration “collective children of anger” (Emmanuel, 2012).

The social media was mostly the attack platform of the opposition APC. The

opposition aware that it could not match the ruling PDP naira for naira

adopted a cheaper but most effective campaign strategy using the online

and social media platforms.

It succeeded in drawing the ruling party into its psychological war game. At

the time the PDP realized that it was losing the battle to win hearts and

minds it was too late. The APC “creepers” have so much entrenched

themselves in the social media platforms that the PDP was unable to catch

up.

It was a high wired game of propaganda and manipulating the minds of the

unsuspecting members of the public. All kinds of stories were thrown up by

either side to discredit the other. More often than not these stories were

outright fabrication and half-truths. Favourites were that an “ING

government” was in the offing, Jega the chairman of the electoral body was

to be sent on compulsory leave; the election was to be postponed a second

time to truncate the process. So many hoaxes were cooked up to discredit

the ruling party. (Oyenuga, 2015).

The ruling PDP was mostly exhausted and on the defensive. The PDP

strategy was to portray the APC as a party of religious bigots and supporters

of terrorists and terrorism. Its presidential candidate was fair game. He was

the “grand pa” who was coming to impose sharia law all over Nigeria. He

was brain dead and possibly senile. He had blood on his hands. He was

terminally ill and was likely to die in office if elected.

The APC portrayed the incumbent president as corrupt and inept. So many

negative appellations were used by social media critics to discredit the

president.

While the APC campaign was seemingly well coordinated and sustained, that

of the PDP was in disarray. One can hazard a guess for the edge the APC

had over the PDP in its campaign on the social media. Over a year before

the general elections, the APC announced that it had engaged the services

of a foreign firm, AKPD Message and Media to boost its electoral chances.
The same consultant who had worked for the election of the President of the

United States of America, Barack Obama in his first quest for the White

House in 2008. The firm’s ability and competence in generating the interest

of young people and use of the social media to swing votes in favor of the

Democratic Party candidate in the US is well known. In a statement Lai

Mohammed the APC spokes had said: “As a party destined to bring change

and succour to all Nigerians, APC is proud and excited to work with one of

the foremost exponents of change in the world,’’ the statement said and

noted that the Chicago-based firm was best known for its leading role in

President Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. AKPD

Message and Media has worked with key Democratic Party candidates

throughout the U.S., with a reputation for supporting leading populist

movements across the globe.’’ APC claimed it had been working with the

firm for several few months, adding: “we shall leverage on the firm’s skill,

experience and expertise throughout the upcoming campaign cycle. (“2015

elections…,” 2014).

Instead of the PDP taking a pragmatic strategy in addressing the threat

posed by the engagement of AKPD Message and Media, the party would

rather dismiss the APC as being anti-Nigeria, for employing the services of a
foreigner to manage its campaign fortunes. Its then national publicity

secretary Oliseh Metuh was reported to have said:

In engaging the services of a foreign firm, the APC has shown that it does

not have faith in our people, our indigenous consultancy firms and the

teeming well qualified, world-acclaimed Nigerian professionals and

technocrats. Just as the leopard cannot change its spots, so also is the APC

unable to hide its true colour as an anti-people organisation, tied to the apron

string of foreign interests in utter disdain for fellow Nigerians and the age-

long clamour for local content. (“Hiring of American firm…,” 2014)

Discussion of Findings.

Did the social media influence the outcome of the 2015 general

elections in Nigeria?

The empirical data indicates that the social media had a significant effect on

the outcome of the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. As observed by a

respondent, “the social media space has been able to redefine how the

electorate optimise the amount of information available to them regarding

facts and fictions.” Information optimisation in respect of the election was

made possible by a large number of important updates about the elections

on social media platforms. Users of these platforms turned their spaces on

social media to make a stand on their preferences and also used it to

campaign for their preferred candidates. This allowed citizens to follow up

with updates of activities from the comfort of their homes and after that

decide on whom to support. It must also be said that many of the

“influencers” on social media were paid employees. This is evident from the

response of an interviewee, "We are out to influence public opinion on behalf

of our clients. And we accomplish this in some ways including setting up

multiple social media accounts especially on Facebook and Twitter, setting

up group accounts, blogging is favourite. We try to get as many people to

like these accounts or use all kinds of tricks to get followers. The aim is

usually to direct, misdirected, credit, discredit, inform and misinform.”

Additionally, most of the respondents believe that the ruling People’s

Democratic Party (PDP) lost the plot to the main opposition party the All

Progressive Congress (APC) on all front especially the social media. “The

President's media people were simply playing 'catch-up'. The Campaign

Organization was often bereft of ideas. I for one didn't remember Ahmadu

Ali was the Director General of the PDPCO (Peoples Democratic Party

Campaign Organisation), until after the elections. I don't remember a single

statement he ever made. Compare that to Governor Rotimi Amaechi who led

the APCCO, (All Progressive Congress Campaign Organization), both in the

mainstream and in the social media. The narration was left to the APC while

the PDP now tried to clean up whatever mess was left behind. Almost

throughout the campaigns, the PDP was reactionary. They were so

reactionary you begin to think whether it was intentional and consequently

a sabotage or whether it was as a result of false confidence. The APC was

in control of how the story was told- from the start to almost the finish”. The

outstanding success of the opposing APC in wrestling power from the ruling

PDP has partly been attributed to its foreign consultant “it's all about the

packaging, David Axelrod did an excellent job for the APC, give it to him.

The bow tie- the suit- the mahogany desk- the little boy giving a high five to

the General, the customized attires meant for different locations, the whole

mix resonated with a lot of people. It was a complete make-over. I guess

the General wouldn't have recognized himself again initially. The Buhari who

was a pariah and was 'unelectable' just four years earlier became a major

force, thanks to the social media.”

Has social media increased democratic participation in Nigeria?

There is no doubt that increased social media use by Nigerians has led to a

correspondent increased in democratic participation by Nigerians. The data

shows that social media has provided a general platform for Nigerians,

especially young Nigerians to air their views and contribute to the democratic

debate, "where ideas are determined and shaped by popular debates and

open participation in a situation where electoral decisions are concerned.

Furthermore, political actors now have a veritable means of gathering

authentic information about their campaign and get valuable feedback from

the electorates. Evidently the social media has become an important channel

of communication between the contestant and the electorate and the

importance of this communication medium will continue to grow in future

elections. Smartphone technologies have also enable the electorates to

monitor election results and ensure that their votes counts.” This has

reduced incidences of election rigging and increased confidence in the

electoral process.

While acknowledging the immense role the social media played in the

outcome of the 2015 Nigerian presidential elections we must also admit the

negative side of this popular platform. The social media was used extensively
to spread, misinformation and disinformation, hate speech and fake news to

the detriment of the electoral process and the nation in general.

In spite of the trending opportunities in social media usage, users should

endeavour to avoid words capable of endangering the peace of the country.

Expectedly, users should be aware of the dangers inherent in the platform

to national peace and unity. However, it is firmly believed that the social

media will continue to play important roles in future elections in Nigeria. This

is given the fact that the social media is open and accessible to both the rich

and the poor, the media novice and the media savvy, the rural and the urban

dweller. The social media has made possible a new type of advocacy in

electoral education and participation, which cannot be taken away from the

people.
 CHAPTER FIVE

CONCLUSION

With advances in technology, the smartphone has become an indispensable

everyday requirement for almost everybody, and it has had a tremendous

effect on the way we receive, process and disseminates information. The

pervasive use of social media and smartphones in Nigerian obviously

influenced the campaign strategies of the gladiators of the 2015 presidential

election, in many cases citizens who would ordinarily not show interest in

electioneering and electioneering campaigns were empowered to do so via

social media and the availability of cheap smartphone and broadband

connectivity. Although social media and smartphones have their limitations

evident suggests that they have become an indispensable tool in the hands

of Nigerian citizens who have become empowered more than ever before to

partake in the national debate from an informed perspective in the privacy

of their homes. This is evident from the 2015 Nigerian presidential election

which was won by the opposition political party, the All Progressives

Congress (APC). Irrespective of this awesome power of the social media to

mold public opinion and promote democratic participation, the platform has

also come under a lot of flak for being the purveyor of misinformation and
fake news. Consequently, we can infer that the social media is a double

edged sword. On the one hand it has aided democratic participation, but on

the other hand, it is capable of becoming an anti-democratic force through

the easy spread of misinformation and fake news, which can lead to anarchy.

This is a delicate balance which must be carefully handled through

legislation, ethics, and individual responsibility.

To foster individual rights in the digital age, the Nigerian government should

pass into law the Digital Rights and Freedom Bill, which has already passed

second reading in the House of Representatives as at June 2017. Passage of

this bill is significant because it assures citizens’ rights to freely express

themselves through online platforms and the social media in a responsible

manner. Assent to the bill would give a boost to citizens’ freedom of

expression as contained in section 39 of the Nigerian 1999 constitution. This

would be of benefit to active citizens’ participation in the democratic process.

However, the rising specter of misinformation and fake news on social media

is a cause for concern. There should be a concerted effort to fight the

menace. To this end, social media users should take responsibility for what

they post or share. A social media user must go through the pain of

verification and vetting stories before clicking the share button. They should
also pay attention to the biases of online sites and not accept everything

they see as the truth because it aligns with their views and biases.

Furthermore, mainstream journalism should rise to the challenges posed by

the social media by paying more premium to quality and investigative

journalism. The mainstream media should be the guardian of fact in a post-

truth era.

RECOMMENDATION

This study makes the following recommendations:

1. Campaigns about the electoral process should be a continuous one on

the social media without posting lies. This will get the electorate greatly

acquainted with all the requirements and process that make one to be

eligible. Ones empowered they can freely exercise their mandate with utmost

ease.

2. Government agencies like the National Orientation Agency, NOA and

other stakeholders should avoid overreliance on the mass media and make

use of social media to rekindle the confidence of the citizens. Interpersonal

communication which establishes direct relationship with electorate should

be used to complement mass media messages. This is where civil society

can play a pivotal role by exhibiting drama to rural communities that need

greater awareness.

3. With intensive empowerment, community voting should be replaced

with individual voting so as not to disenfranchise voters. Community voting

obviously promotes god fatherism. Absence of this strengthens and affirms

our democracy as electorate feel fulfilled they freely casted their votes to

those they wanted as against being manipulated by Chiefs and god fathers.

4. Voters should realize that whoever they vote will impact on their lives

in future. Therefore, they should continue with the gesture of wisely casting

their votes free from ethnic, religious and social ties as well as other trivial

considerations with retrogressive tendency.

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