Stefan Thiesen - Climate Poker

1
The author, born in Germany in 1967, is astronomer and
geographer with various undergraduate and graduate degrees from
European and American universities, including the University of
the State of New York and the University of London. His
work focuses on future research in the widest sense.

For my parents, who always

supported every step on my
way - no matter how strange
it seemed to be

2
 Stefan Thiesen

Climate Poker

A Journey to our Precious Planet

®
MindQuest
Scientia

3
1. Auflage, Selm, 1999
©MindQuest ® Verlag, Stefan Thiesen, 59379 Selm
Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Druck: Georg Lingenbrink GmbH, Hamburg,
ISBN 3-934195-00-8

4
 Content
Preface ....................................................................... 9
Introductory Remarks ........................................... 22

Part I ........................................................................ 25
Stability Parameters of Planetary Ecosystems
I.1: Introduction ........................................................ 26
I.2: Relevant Astronomical and Geophysical
Properties of Planets ............................................ 28
I.2.1: Laws of Planetary Motion ............................... 28
I.2.2: General Energy Balances of Planets ............... 29
I.3: Solar Evolution and Long Term Climate
Stability ................................................................ 36
I.3.1: Inner and Outer Boundaries of Habitable
Zones .................................................................... 38
I.3.2: Modeling Habitable Zones .............................. 41
I.3.2.1: Solving Enigmas .......................................... 45
Exkurs: Short History of a Simple Mistake .......... 48
I.3.2.1.1: Mass Change of the Sun ........................... 53
I.3.2.1.2: Internal Regulations of Planetary
Ecosystems .......................................................... 55
I 3.2.1.3: Mars - More Reasons for Optimism? ........ 60
Some general literature used for this part: ............ 62

Part II ...................................................................... 65
Search for Life in the Solar System
Review of a very ordinary Star System
II.1: Introduction ....................................................... 66
II.1.1: An Average Star System ................................ 67
II.2: Inner Solar System: The Search Begins ............ 68
II.2.1: VENUS .......................................................... 69
II.2.1.1: The Atmosphere of Venus ........................... 70

5
 II.2.1.2: Is Life on Venus still possible? ................... 73
II.2.2: Is there Life on Earth? ................................... 75
II.2.3: Mars - another Planet of Life? ....................... 77
II.2.3.1: Robots Searching Life on Mars (summary).79
II.2.3.1.1: Experiments for Life ................................ 82
II.2.3.1.2: Results of the Viking Search for Life ...... 86
II.2.3.1.3: Future Life-Searching Missions .............. 88
II.2.3.2: Other Objectives ......................................... 92
General Literature used for part II: ...................... 93

Part III ..................................................................... 95

Climate Policy and Politics - a regional Example;
Sane David looses in the real World of Power and
Money Goliaths
III.1: Introduction .................................................... 96
III.2: The Example of Climate Change: A general
Overview of Research and Policies................ 100
III.2.1: Global Results and Activities ..................... 100
III.2.2: General Results and Activities in
Germany ............................................................ 103
III.3: Methodology ................................................. 107
III.3.1: Research Methods and Sources .................. 107
III.3.2: Münster - Germany’s „Climate Capital“ 1997..109
III.3.3: Climate and Energy Research in
Münster ............................................................. 110
III.3.4: Climate and Energy Policies in Münster .......... 114
III.3.5: Effectivity Indicators for Local Climate and
Energy Policies ................................................. 117
IIII.4: Analysis ............................................................... 123
IIII.4.1: CO2 Reduction Scenarios for different
Sectors - Two Case Studies ............................... 123

6
III.4.1.1: Reduction Possibilities and Realities in the
Sector „Housing and Household-
Heating“ ............................................................. 123
III.4.1.2:Reduction Possibilities and Realities in the
Traffic Sector ..................................................... 130
III.4.1.2.1: The Real Situation ................................ 130
III.4.1.2.2: CO2 Reduction Strategies in Münster’s
Traffic Sector ..................................................... 131
III.4.2: Opinions as Qualitative „Indicators“ .......... 136
III.5: Conclusion ..................................................... 139
III.5.1: Comparison of Effectivity Indicators to
Reduction Goals, Achievements and Assessments
in Münster .......................................................... 139
III.5.2: Does Germany’s „Best Effort“ meet
expectations and objective requirements? ......... 141
III.5.3: Outlook to the Future ................................. 142

Appendix ................................................................ 147

Sources and Bibliography: ..................................... 158
FOOTNOTES: ........................................................ 177

7
8
Preface
There is a confession I have to make: I am a
hopeless romantic. Being romantic is something that in
our days is ridiculed by most sides of Western culture,
which is somewhat funny, since romanticism originated
just there. Our time has become that of „objectivity“.
Everything must be evaluated and assessed in an
objective and reproducible fashion. Every piece of
knowledge must be filable and filed, so that it can be
retrieved, and for the industry that drives our world,
pieces of knowledge only have a value if a clearly
readable price tag is attached to them. This is not
romantic. It is all and through materialistic, yet another
invention of Euromerican culture. But when I stand on
top of Mauna Kea in Hawai’i, gazing over the fantastic
volcano landscape, I stand there in awe and wonder. Any
price tags there? I explain to freezing tourists the crashing
of comet Levy-Shoemaker into the atmosphere of the
father of all planets: Jupiter. And I am absolutely and
pricelessly fascinated. So are the tourists.
When I went snorkeling in Hilo Bay, I felt like in
heaven while an old sea turtle was hovering in the
swaying waves next to me. What might it think? Above
the water I see playing high school kids of all colors,
surfing, like it is their second - or rather their first - nature.
Not far away, a school of spinner dolphins is passing
by, jumping and twisting and turning, as if they ex-
tended their greetings to the playing kids.
I am floating atop gentle waves, my eyes are
gazing upon the palm trees at the shore and wandering
over the majestic sight of distant Mauna Kea. If I duck
my head under water I can hear the distant songs of

9
humpback whales. But I can also see corals, which show
first signs of bleaching. Corals are bleaching around the
world, and coral bleaching is for the seas, what dying
trees are on land.
Dying trees and dying corals show me one thing
very clearly: This planet is severely sick. By some this
would be ridiculed as a romantic view. I called the planet
sick, as if the planet would be a person, which obviously
it is not. Experience however tells me that we humans
have a tendency to personalize things that we love, and
as soon as we think of something as a person, we usually
treat it with respect, and we care for it. I assume that
military people are not suspected to be overly romantic,
but even they give names to their battle ships and
airplanes, they even personalize something as abstract
as a military mission, so that they have something they
can be fond of when they talk about it, when they
remember it in later times.
Personalizing the world around us seems to be
something that is deeply rooted in human nature. Every
little child in every culture around this globe gives names
to her toys, her dolls, her pets. When I was little and
growing up in the country, I gave names to the crows
nesting nearby, I thought of deer and horses, of dogs
and foxes, of all the country creatures and even the trees
as individual sentient beings. Although it might therefore
be unscientific to personalize the planet Earth, the one
thing in the universe, that brought each and all of us
into existence, that feeds us and keeps us alive, however
personalizing it is deeply human. Money on the other
hand is something very inhumane, since hardly anything
is as difficult as teaching a young human what the value
of money is. A young human’s instinct rightfully tells
her or him that money has no value. Money is not a part

10
of nature, it has played no role in our natural evolution,
so we have no money-related natural intuition. Money
cannot be personalized, and only mentally disturbed
people could actually love money for itself. How many
children under, say, ten years grasp the concept of
money? And yet our main activity in these days is to
turn the entire living world into dead money.

Not long ago I heard a story about a little girl

who lost all her faith in her father, who happened to be
the CEO of some big chemical company. It turned out
that - in order to save some of this rather ominous money,
- her beloved father’s company had dumped highly toxic
chemical waste in a natural wetland preservation area.
She was told that he did this in order to save some
precious money. With swollen eyes and rolling tears she
screamed at him: „Are you crazy? You cannot kill all
those animals and trees and poison children only because
something else costs more!“ The girl was ten. The girl
had not yet understood the current world’s paradigm
which goes „Anything goes as long as it brings money“.
The girl didn’t even know what money really is - or a
paradigm for that matter. Silly little girl.

There is another reason why conservative (what

a word here!) business people and politicians and also
some of my colleagues often ridicule me as being too
romantic. I do have the tendency to say that some of the
old folks, say the ancient Hawaiians, have led a more
sustainable life, and also one that was not necessarily
unhappier than ours. „But“, my opponents argue, „these
people were primitive, illiterate savages, and they also
shaped their environments for their purposes“. And yes,
like many other creatures on the face of the Earth, the

11
Hawaiians - to stay with the example - did shape their
environment to a certain extent. But did they in any way
alter the planets atmospheric conditions? They did not
do that. Did they add thousands of weird artificial
chemicals with completely unknown long-term side
effects to the entire global food-and-matter chain? No.
Did they deforest entire continents? Change the ground
water level of large parts of the Earth’s surface? Cover
much of the Earth with asphalt, concrete and
whoknowswhatelse? Nope. They didn’t.
There is one example from old Polynesia though,
where people did something utterly stupid. For as yet
unknown reasons, the inhabitants of one island began at
one time to focus their entire effort on producing large
statues of stone. Everything else was neglected. All trees
were chopped off, in order to transport those stone statues
on the rolling stems, until no more trees were there. The
trees however were somewhat important, since they
provided the food and building material for houses and
ships. Stone statues do not float. Stone statues one cannot
eat. Stone statues one cannot use to make a nice and
cozy fire, which was necessary on this rather cold and
windy island.
I am speaking of course about the Moai statues
on Rapa Nui, the Easter island. The people there lived
through a time of darkness and suffering, trapped on
their tiny little horror island, starving, hungry and
freezing for many decades, if not for centuries.
There is a lesson here. The Earth herself is not-
hing but an island as well. A larger one, yes, but the
population of the Easter island was only a few thousand,
that of the Earth is six billion and rising, ever rising. Is
there a fundamental difference between the Easter
islanders’ obsession with dead stone statues and our

12
craving for dead money? Both destroy everything that
has a natural value and turn it into something artificial
that has none.
But be that as it may - the Easter island was an
exception from the rule. Generally the old cultures
respected nature and knew it well since they lived with
it every day. It is difficult to respect something that one
knows nothing about. Modern city people in fact
practically know nothing about nature anymore and have
no natural intuition whatsoever.

I am also told by my opponents that the old people

had no medicinal care. Not so. In many cases it was
well developed and modern medicine only now begins
to understand and appreciate the effectivity of the various
ancient medicinal schools. „By the time the Europeans
came, we were still savages sacrificing humans! „ I was
told, of all people, by a friend of mine who is a Hawaii-
an economist. White propaganda seems to have fantastic
powers.
Hawaii was about the last spot on Earth to be
infested by European discoverers, and it also marked
the final end of a period that could be called a period of
peaceful exploration.
The first officially logged contact between
„savage“ Hawaiian people and Europeans was the
landing of Captain Cook’s expedition in 1778.
Meanwhile, back in Europe, the last woman was
officially convicted of sorcery and brutally killed in
Switzerland in 1782. How many senseless wars did
Europeans start afterwards? What about the American
genocide and slavery? And I live in Germany where over
six million innocent, peaceful human beings were
slaughtered for nothing else but having the wrong

13
religion. That was a time near the middle of the twentieth
century. Nobody give me that crap about the moral
superiority of the white culture.
What does all that have to do with environmental
issues? Nothing, but it shows the immense arrogance of
the white race, when it comes to judging itself. We white
Euromaricans always win, and therefore we write the
history books. I am one of them, and I am afraid that if
we continue on our current path, we will finally write
all of mankind out of history. Nobody should later be
allowed to say „I didn’t know“. I will happily kick the
butt of anyone who says „we need facts“. Go to school
and learn! Learn reading! Learn thinking! Learn opening
your ears and eyes and hear and see!

We can start right at this spot with reading and

hearing and seeing, all of which are rather difficult arts.
If I say „The world is in jeopardy“, one could rightfully
remark „Who the heck are you young greenhorn to say
such big words?“ But what if all of the world’s senior
scientists, including most living nobel laureates tell you
the same thing? If they subscribe to the same view? And
they do.

The same people who have built trustworthy

airplanes, who have brought humans to the moon, who
laid the foundations for the electronic revolution and
developed miracle cures for many of the most terrible
diseases warn us. We trust their judgment and in fact
put the life of our children in their hands when we use
penicillin, when we enter an airplane, when we turn on
our microwave ovens. You should reconsider your faith
in science if you don’t trust the senior scientists’ warning
to mankind, published in 1992 by the Union of
Concerned Scientists, of which yours truly is a member:

14
 Some 1,700 of the world’s leading scientists,
including the majority of Nobel laureates in the sciences,
issued this appeal in November 1992. The Warning was
written and spearheaded by UCS Chair Henry Kendall
(† 1999).

Human beings and the natural world are on a

collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often
irreversible damage on the environment and on critical
resources. If not checked, many of our current practices
put at serious risk the future that we wish for human
society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so
alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain
life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes
are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present
course will bring about.

The Environment

The environment is suffering critical stress:

The Atmosphere. Stratospheric ozone depletion

threatens us with enhanced ultraviolet radiation at the
earth’s surface, which can be damaging or lethal to many
life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid
precipitation, are already causing widespread injury to
humans, forests, and crops.

Water Resources. Heedless exploitation of depletable

ground water supplies endangers food production and
other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the
world’s surface waters have resulted in serious shortages
in some 80 countries, containing 40 percent of the

15
world’s population. Pollution of rivers, lakes, and ground
water further limits the supply.

Oceans. Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe,

particularly in the coastal regions which produce most
of the world’s food fish. The total marine catch is now at
or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. Some
fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers
carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also
carry industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock
waste — some of it toxic.

Soil. Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensi-

ve land abandonment, is a widespread by-product of
current practices in agriculture and animal husbandry.
Since 1945, 11 percent of the earth’s vegetated surface
has been degraded — an area larger than India and
China combined — and per capita food production in
many parts of the world is decreasing.

Forests. Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and

temperate dry forests, are being destroyed rapidly. At
present rates, some critical forest types will be gone in
a few years, and most of the tropical rain forest will be
gone before the end of the next century. With them will
go large numbers of plant and animal species.

Living Species. The irreversible loss of species, which

by 2100 may reach one-third of all species now living,
is especially serious. We are losing the potential they
hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the
contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to
the robustness of the world’s biological systems and to
the astonishing beauty of the earth itself. Much of this

16
damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries, or per-
manent. Other processes appear to pose additional
threats. Increasing levels of gases in the atmosphere from
human activities, including carbon dioxide released from
fossil fuel burning and from deforestation, may alter
climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming
are still uncertain — with projected effects ranging from
tolerable to very severe — but the potential risks are
very great.

Our massive tampering with the world’s interdependent

web of life — coupled with the environmental damage
inflicted by deforestation, species loss, and climate
change — could trigger widespread adverse effects,
including unpredictable collapses of critical biological
systems whose interactions and dynamics we only
imperfectly understand.
Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot excuse
complacency or delay in facing the threats.

Population

The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and

destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food
and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing
numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching
many of the earth’s limits. Current economic practices
which damage the environment, in both developed and
underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without
the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond
repair.
Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth
put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm
any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to

17
halt the destruction of our environment, we must accept
limits to that growth. A World Bank estimate indicates
that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4
billion, while the United Nations concludes that the
eventual total could reach 14 billion, a near tripling of
today’s 5.4 billion. But, even at this moment, one person
in five lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat,
and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.

No more than one or a few decades remain before the

chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost
and the prospects for humanity immeasurably
diminished.

Warning

We the undersigned, senior members of the world’s

scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what
lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the
earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery
is to be avoided and our global home on this
planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.

What We Must Do

Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed

simultaneously:

We must bring environmentally damaging activities

under control to restore and protect the integrity of the
earth’s systems we depend on.
We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to
more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut
greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air

18
and water. Priority must be given to the development of
energy sources matched to Third World needs — small-
scale and relatively easy to implement.

We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of

agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine
plant and animal species.

We must manage resources crucial to human welfare

more effectively.

We must give high priority to efficient use of energy,

water, and other materials, including expansion of
conservation and recycling.

We must stabilize population.

This will be possible only if all nations recognize that it
requires improved social and economic conditions, and
the adoption of effective, voluntary family planning.

We must reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.

We must ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women

control over their own reproductive decisions.

Developed Nations Must Act Now

The developed nations are the largest polluters in the

world today. They must greatly reduce their
overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures on
resources and the global environment. The developed
nations have the obligation to provide aid and support
to developing nations, because only the developed
nations have the financial resources and the technical
skills for these tasks.

19
Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but enlightened
self-interest: whether industrialized or not, we all have
but one lifeboat. No nation can escape from injury when
global biological systems are damaged. No nation can
escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources.
In addition, environmental and economic instabilities
will cause mass migrations with incalculable
consequences for developed and undeveloped nations
alike.

Developing nations must realize that environmental

damage is one of the gravest threats they face, and that
attempts to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their
populations go unchecked. The greatest peril is to
become trapped in spirals of environmental decline,
poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic, and
environmental collapse.

Success in this global endeavor will require a great

reduction in violence and war. Resources now devoted
to the preparation and conduct of war — amounting to
over $1 trillion annually — will be badly needed in the
new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.

A new ethic is required — a new attitude towards

discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves
and for the earth. We must recognize the earth’s limited
capacity to provide for us. We must recognize its fragility.
We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This ethic
must motivate a great movement, convincing reluctant
leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples
themselves to effect the needed changes.

20
The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message
will reach and affect people everywhere. We need the
help of many.

We require the help of the world community of scientists

— natural, social, economic, and political.

We require the help of the world’s business and industrial

leaders.
We require the help of the world’s religious leaders.

We require the help of the world’s peoples.

We call on all to join us in this task.

Union of Concerned Scientists

2 Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02238-9105
617-547-5552, ucs@ucsusa.org

21
Introductory Remarks
The approach to this book surely is unusual and
rather personal. At first sight my fields of study don’t
seem closely connected, ranging from astronomy to
climate policy, but in fact it was the study of stars and
planets that brought me back to the Earth. Looking at
Earth from the outside, analyzing the properties of other
planets and assessing the probability of planetary
ecospheres like ours occurring elsewhere in the vastness
of space resulted in my deep appreciation of the wonder
of life on Earth. All other planets are just dead rocks,
and with quite some effort my colleagues are searching
for the faintest traces of microbial life on Mars or
possibly one of the Jupiter moons. Here on Earth
however the surface of its thin crust is teeming with life
in fantastic variations. This life is endangered in its
entirety since our current lifestyle is that of lunatic
gamblers who may win money but who are more likely
to lose their home.

„Climate Poker“ traces back my winding pathway

leading from the search for life in the universe to an
analysis of a concrete example of climate policy right
here on good old Earth. I hope that the reader will begin
to appreciate the value of natural system, of life, and the
connections it has to his everyday decisions. We must
stop gambling, if we don’t want to face the questions of
our grandchildren, asking with tears in their eyes: „WHY
DID YOU DO THAT?“ What would we answer? Would
we lie and say „We didn’t know?“ Or would we tell the
truth and admit that money was more important for us
than the faith of the world and of our grandchildren?

22
I am Stefan Thiesen, astronomer and geographer, and
I have a confession to make: I am a hopeless romantic.
And I sure love this living planet, our home we call
Earth, with all the power of my heart. Anyone who
wishes to do so can blame that on me, but please also
explain what is wrong with it, and what harm it can
possibly cause.

23
24
 Part I

Stability Parameters of
Planetary Ecosystems

The Journey begins

25
Part I

Stability Parameters of
Planetary Ecosystems

I.1: Introduction
When in 1994 I originally proposed “Stability
Parameters of Planetary Ecosystems” as a dissertation
topic, I had grand ideas about the possible outcomes.
One of my motivations was to clarify as far as possible
the question of the probability of habitable and inhabited
planets to occur throughout the universe and estimate
the long term habitability of planets, which is assumed
to be a necessary prerequisite for the evolution of
intelligence. As it turned out it is virtually impossible to
undertake such a work because some big questions as
well as a myriad of detail problems are still completely
unresolved1 . I am very grateful to Prof. Freeman Dyson
from the Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton,
who brought my feet back onto the ground just in time
to change my proposal. I had presented my proposal to
him and he wrote back that he was “...dubious about
‘Stabilitätsfaktoren Planetarischer Ökosysteme’ as a
research topic...” which sounded to him like big words
without substance, and I am afraid he was right with his
assessment. Dyson: ”We know absurdly little even about

26
the ecological stability of local parts of our own planet,
let alone the stability of the planet as a whole”. He wrote
that in his opinion ecology is a science that needs far
more observation and experiment, and that there has been
much too much computer modeling and not enough
observation. He added: “I am afraid that your proposal
will lead to a pretentious theoretical analysis based on
insufficient factual data...”. Again he most probably was
right, and after giving it some thought I changed my
proposal. The purpose of this work is to present
interdisciplinary background knowledge in earth
sciences and astronomy and to integrate the work
undertaken in professional development, which in my
case involves popular science and science fiction writing.
The new “Project in Lieu of Dissertation” provided a
highly flexible and individualized option that allowed
me to combine graduate courses, professional work and
six independent projects to form an external doctorate
program. Following Prof. Dyson’s advice I did not try
to answer all questions of the universe but rather give
an overview of various aspects of bioastronomy. This
part of my dissertation in Astronomy, which has
become Part I of this book, is what remains from the
original proposal2 . For enhanced clarity it is presen-
ted here in an abbreviated and simplified version.

27
I.2: Relevant Astronomical and
Geophysical Properties of Planets
Before I elaborate on the big word “Planetary
Ecosystems”, I will give a short overview of some
general aspects of planetary sciences, physical properties
of planets, habitable zones and how we can deal with
them in a basic quantitative fashion.

Planets are now considered to be a normal by-

product of stellar formation, a hypothesis that has been
confirmed in recent years by the detection of exoplanets
in various near by star systems.

I.2.1: Laws of Planetary Motion

Johannes Kepler (1571 - 1630) discovered the
laws of planetary motion based upon the detailed long
term observations of the Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe
(1546 - 1601). The first law states that the planetary orbits
around the Sun are ellipses, and that the Sun is situated
in one focus. Therefore we arrive at the formula:

a(1 − e 2 )
r= (eq. I.1)
1 + e cos θ
Here r is the distance from the Sun, a is the semi
major axis, e is the eccentricity and q is the angle defining
the position of the planet on the ellipse seen from the
Sun’s point of view. The smallest value of r, the

28
perihelion, corresponds to cos q = 1 and is given as

rmin/a = (1-e2)/(1+e) = 1-e (eq. I.2)

so for the aphelion, the maximum value of r, we arrive

at

rmax/a = 1+e (eq. I.3).

The third law of Kepler can be written a3 = Kp2 with a

in astronomical units (AU) and the p (period) is given
in years. K is a constant equaling 1 AU3/yr2. For my
purpose I later will have to apply Newton’s more exact
formulation which also accounts for the masses of Sun
and planet. In this case we arrive at

a3 = K(M + m)p2 (eq. I.4)

for Kepler’s third law. M is the mass of the Sun and m

the mass of the planet. Here both are expressed in units
of the combined mass of Sun and Earth thus in the case
of the Earth (M + m) equals one. This simple format is
particularly useful for a crucial numerical calculation
that I will suggest later in this work.

I.2.2: General Energy Balances of

Planets
The overall energy balance of a planet is the most
crucial aspect for climate modeling. There are two main
sources of energy: internal heating and external stellar
radiation. Sources for internal heating can be volcanism

29
(geothermal heating caused by radioactive processes or
tidal stresses) or - less important - chemical activities.
External energy input only depends on the star’s
luminosity and the planets distance from the star. The
energy that arrives at the position of the Earth (or a given
planet) outside the atmosphere is called the Solar
Constant, although it certainly is not a constant since it
changes as a result of stellar evolution, stellar activity
and orbital variations. The modified solar constant for
orbital “radius” r is easily calculated as:

r  −2
S(r) = S 
 1AU  (eq. I.5)

Where S (for the Earth) has a value of

S = 1.37 kWm-2.

A planet of radius R absorbs p R2(1-A)S(r) of

the arriving radiation with A being its average albedo
(A=0.39 for Earth).

Since planets are not ideal black bodies, a global

effective temperature is defined following the Stefan-
Boltzmann-law of radiation. Since energy input from
the star S(r) and inner energy streams Q are balanced,
we get:

π R 2 (1 − A)S(r) + 4 π R 2 Q = 4 π R 2 σ T eff
4

(eq. I.6)

30
 Generally for the terrestrial planets the amount
of inner energy Q is minute compared to the solar input.
In the case of the Earth for example the inner thermal
heating (mainly caused by radioactive processes)
amounts to only Q=0.06 W/m-2, or a mere 4.4*10-5S
or 1/228 S. For the giant planets this situation is reversed
and the amount of inner energy released by the planets
by far “outperforms” the Sun’s input. We can easily
calculate the ratios of planetary energy output to solar
energy input following (eq. I.5):

4 σ T eff4
(1 − A)S(r)

Jupiter Saturn Neptune

1.9 (+-0.2) ca. 3.5 2.4 (+- 1)

These values have been obtained by infrared

measurement. The origin of this energy has not yet been
completely determined in all cases, but the majority of
the radiation probably is released gravitational energy
plus energy that was left over from the time of the
planets’ formation. Whether or not Uranus has its own
inner energy source is unresolved: Earth based infrared
observations found no evidence whereas measurements
of the atmospheric temperature distribution undertaken
by Voyager 2 seem to have found hints pointing towards
the opposite3 .
The above situation looks somewhat different if
we place the giant planets onto a hypothetical orbit of 1
AU where they would be subject to the same energy
input as Earth is now. The Solar constant basically is
nothing else than stellar luminosity combined with the

31
1/r 2 law, so it’s value behaves anti-proportional,
decreasing with the square of the distance. Again
following (eq. I.5) we arrive at a ratio of S(Earth) to
S(Jup) of:

S( Earth) 1. 37kwm −2
= −2
S( Jup) −2  7. 79 ⋅10 8 km 
1. 37kwm  
 1. 496 ⋅10 8 km 
1
= ≈ 27
5. 21−2

This result shows that after a normalization of the

energy input to the solar constant the internal heat
production of the terrestrial planets relative to the value
of the giant planets rises by more than one order of
magnitude, though it still remains small. Instead of
releasing almost two times the energy the planet receives
from the Sun in his real orbit, Jupiter would only yield
an energy output of approx. 0.07 times that of the input
in a 1 AU distance to the Sun.

Naturally the radiation balance is a core factor

for the long-term stability of a planetary ecosystem.
There are several zones in a given star system that can
be distinguished using the radiation flux only: a “heat
zone”, in which no known lifeform could exist, a “frost
zone”, for which the same applies, and a “habitable
zone” 4 where moderate temperatures allow the
occurrence of chemical and biochemical processes that
finally may lead to the evolution of earth-type life. In
the case of the solar system, Mercury and Venus are

32
situated in the “heat zone” and Mars apparently orbits
just outside the habitable zone near the inner border of
the “frost zone”. Earth appears to have been inside of
the habitable zone since it’s formation.
Habitable zones may not be dependent on stellar
radiation fluxes only. It is possible that on moons in orbits
around giant planets conditions could arise that lead to
the formation of a planetary ecosphere very different
from that found on Earth. The necessary energy source
would be provided by geothermal heating as a result of
tidal stresses. However, the typical “mainstream”
habitable zone should look similar to this:

Planet

Star

Runaway „freezer“

Habitable Zone

Runaway „greenhouse“

Illustration I.1: A hypothetical star system; not to scale

In the solar system the situation is simpler than in

the example I have shown here. Especially the inner
planets have near circular orbits and seasons are almost
completely dominated by the planets’ obliquity, and not
by changes of the solar radiation flux due to distance
variations.

33
 The planet in this illustration has a highly eccentric
orbit, which during its year brings it into all zones of his
star. Although there have been a variety of model
calculations it remains unclear whether some kind of
stable ecosphere could exist on such a planet. It would
have to tolerate seasons of extreme heat as well as cold
seasons during which the atmosphere would nearly
freeze out, changing within one year from Venus-like
over Earth-like to Mars-like radiation conditions,
although it would spend the majority of its time in either
the frost or the habitable zone.
Since under frost conditions chemistry occurs
slow but stable, it is entirely conceivable that life may
adjust to such variable conditions if it finds a way to
survive the short heat phases, for example through a
highly increased albedo due to heavy cloud formation.
If the planet has large oceans, these oceans might have
enough heat capacity to stabilize the climate during the
heat seasons, and at the same time they could be a retreat
for lifeforms during the cold seasons, especially if we
consider additional internal heating.

This is only one example for an infinite number

of possible scenarios, and it merely serves as a
demonstration since I mainly want to talk about the only
positive example we know: the solar system. In our case
the situation is more straightforward and schematically
looks as follows (next page):

34
 Mercury

Venus

Earth

Mars

Habitable
Zone

Illustration I.2: inner solar system; eccentricity of orbits

are exaggerated

As shown above the situation for every planet appears

to be clearly defined: either it is inside or outside the
habitable zone, with Earth being the only lucky planet.
This may not always have been so in the past partly due
to orbital variations but mainly because of the evolution
of the Sun which now has a luminosity approx. 30%
higher than in it’s early stages. Also the inner and outer
boundaries of the habitable zone are not known for sure
yet since we only begin to understand the complex
feedback and regulating mechanisms in planetary
atmospheres. It may well turn out that Venus once was
and Mars still is inside of the habitable zone, and also
that even the Earth might eventually drop out.

35
I.3: Solar Evolution and Long-Term
Climate Stability
For my purposes I will assume the following facts
as given:

• The Sun’s current average luminosity has a value

of 29% above the value of t-4.5*109 years (or rat-
her at that time it had a luminosity of 0.71 of the
Sun’s current luminosity that increased in a linear
fashion.

• Long term effects of aberrated solar wind and em-

radiation on orbital mechanics are approx. cancelled
out by solar mass loss due to solar wind etc..

• Remaining relevant solar mass loss can be calculated

simply following E=mc2 based upon averaged stel-
lar luminosity.

Since I am only interested in estimating the magnitude

of long term changes of mean surface temperatures of
planets as a result of possible orbital and stellar
luminosity variations, it should be sufficient to rely on a
simple 1D climate model, such as the one lined out in
the following illustration (next page):

36
Illustration I.3 (from Martyn J. Fogg, 1996)

37
I.3.1: Inner and Outer Boundaries
of Habitable Zones
There are several definitions for habitable zones around
main sequence stars, of which one of the most common
is the “liquid water definition”5 . Therefore a habitable
zone is defined as the radial shell around a star within
which an earth-like Planet could support surface liquid
water. The inner boundary is characterized by the loss
of H2O through a runaway greenhouse effect, the outer
boundary by freezing of all surface water.
A planet is defined as one “similar” in mass and
composition to Earth with basically identical surface
inventories of CO2, H2O and N2. The mass is not exactly
defined (see Mars/Earth) but apparently it should be
sufficient to maintain a minimum geologic activity which
is needed for a carbon and silicate cycle that is necessary
for a stable internal regulation of the climatic balance6
(see also illustration I.7).
The exact conditions under which either runaway
greenhouse or runaway freezer occur appear to be highly
sensitive to the effects of H2O and CO2 clouds on the
radiation budget of a planet. Three different sets of flux
limits have been identified for each of the two boundaries
with the inner and outer limit mainly depending on stel-
lar luminosity and not stellar temperature. The habitable
zone is not stable since stars show a significant
luminosity evolution during their main-sequence
lifetime. According to accepted theory, this means that
a given planet will stay within the habitable zone of its
motherstar for a limited time only. Depending on the
mass and lifetime of the motherstar, this effect would
then greatly decrease the probability of higher lifeforms

38
to occur in space since for these we assume a minimum
evolution time of 109 years, a time span requiring stable
conditions that - according to many models - would not
be met by the vast majority of stars.
Following these arguments, since we know that
stars with an initial mass higher than that of the Sun
have a faster evolution, a habitable zone around the star
generally would exist for a shorter time and the
Continuously Habitable Zone (furthermore called CHZ)
would evolve (move outwards) too fast, to allow higher
life forms and a long term stable ecosystem to form on
one of the planets. Stars with lower mass than the Sun
show a much slower evolution and an extremely stable
luminosity, this means the habitable zone of such a star
also changes very slowly.
The problem is that the zone is very narrow and
also very close to the star. Typical ranges of habitable
zones around low mass stars (such as M stars) would be
between 0.03 and 0.3 AU7 . As a result of its close orbit
inside the habitable zone around a typical M star, the
orbiting planet would most probably be tidally locked.
Although it was shown that tidally locked planets around
M stars can support an Earth-type atmosphere8 and
although M stars with masses between 0.1 and 0.5 solar
masses comprise three quarters of the stellar population
of the Milky Way one would at first sight assume that
the narrow range of the habitable zone makes it relatively
improbable for planets to have formed in it thus in the
last consequence rendering the probability of higher
lifeforms evolving in low mass star systems negligible.
Without attempting “pretentious calculations” I
present some qualitative arguments against these trains
of thoughts:

39
• Stars with high initial mass and higher (compared
to the Sun) initial luminosity also have a significantly
wider initial habitable zone which may allow for
more than one planet to orbit within it.

• The CHZ should not be defined by the evolution of

the stars’ luminosity alone; detailed calculations of
the effect of the stellar mass loss on the outward
drift of the planets’ orbits have to be carried out in
order to assess the true evolution of the CHZs. The
mass loss should have a larger effect in stars with
higher luminosity and possibly higher strained
activity.

• During the formation process of low mass stars their

planetary system is likely to also form closer to the
star with planetary orbits in close spacing, thus sim-
ple celestial mechanics would place planets in or
near the habitable zone of their mother star (if Jupiter
were a star, it would have several candidates that
might be in it’s habitable zone).

In my opinion, these qualitative arguments already

point towards the possibility that nature tends to design
star systems in a fashion that allows life to thrive on at
least one planet in each system. According to Hart et al..
(1978), the probability of life occurring in the Galaxy is
minute, but in recent years there have been many
improvements in climate and stellar modeling,
particularly regarding our understanding of the
carbonate-silicate cycles. Newer models arrive at more
optimistic results.

40
I.3.2: Modeling Habitable Zones
The inner (r1) and outer (r2) boundaries of the
solar system habitable zone can be estimated as:

L(t ) L(t )
r1 = and r2 =
S1(T ) S2(T )
(eq. I.7)

In above equations L(t) is the stellar luminosity

as a function of time as given by the stellar evolution
model (which for sake of simplicity I will assume to be
linear in first approximation) and S1 (S2) are the critical
stellar fluxes.
A calculated and an empirical limit for the solar
flux at the inner border of the HZ (normalized to the
current solar constant) are 1.1 and 1.76. The lower and
most conservative value obtained to date is based upon
a simple 1D radiative convective climate model; a real
planet can most probably maintain liquid water at
significantly higher fluxes through internal regulation.
The higher value constitutes an empirically obtained
upper limit (the flux at the current location of Venus)
109 years ago9 .
The rationale is that an assessment of geological
surface features on Venus allows the conclusion that
there has been no liquid water flow during this time span.
Again, for the sake of simplicity, I will assume an inner
flux limit of 1.5 S for habitable zones with Earth type
planets. Reliable values for the flux at the outer limits
are more difficult to obtain since climate models for cold
planets would have to be able to include CO2 clouds
and condensations, a set of problems that is not yet

41
completely solved. Therefore, I will stay on the
conservative side for the outer value which is then
defined as the “first condensation point”, where CO2
first condenses and increases the planetary albedo so
that the planetary greenhouse effect is being decreased
until it collapses. As a result the temperature falls which
then leads to the runaway freezer. I know this value to
be incorrect since it is known that Mars apparently
possessed liquid water at a lower radiation flux (possibly
as low as 0.32 S), but using the conservative value will
hopefully spare me of accusations of being all too
optimistic. The value I will use in due course is 0.53
S10 .

Many attempts have been undertaken to assess

the long term stability of climate systems, mainly by
using one dimensional global energy balance models
(EBMs) that include some empirically obtained
parameters. Based upon the empirically derived results
by Budyoko (1969), Sellers (1969) and Nielsen (1981)
I will present a simple globally averaged model11 of
the type that was used to derive eq. I.7.

The incoming stellar energy Ein is given by

Ein=1/4S0(1-A(T)) (eq. I.8)

Where S0 is the solar constant (or rather solar flux

outside the atmosphere at a given time), and A is the
planetary albedo. A is mostly influenced by snow, ice
and cloud covers. I will consider it to be a function of
the surface temperature only, approximately following
the empirical equations:

42
 A=Amax = 0.85 for T<T1=216K

Amax − Amin
A(T ) = Amax − (T − T1 )
T 2 − T1

(eq. I.9)

for T1<T<T2

We arrive at A(T)=0.25 for T>=T2=283K.

For the radiation going out to space we can use:

Eout=sT4 [1/2tanh 19*10-16T6] (eq. I.10)

The term in brackets is a very rough estimation of the

influence of H2O-vapor- and CO2 greenhouse effects
as well as cloud covers on the terrestrial radiation. A
plot of Ein-Eout as a function of surface temperature T,
shows that there are three equilibrium states: one for a
completely ice-covered Earth, one for a partly ice
covered and one for an ice free Earth. Two of the
equilibrium states are known to be stable with relatively
wide tolerance to changes in energy input, while one is
unstable and even disappears. If the solar constant is
reduced by more than 12% in the equation, only one
state of equilibrium remains.
A detailed calculation that needs to be carried out would
have to include:

• Influence of solar mass loss on planetary orbit.

• Influence of stellar evolution on luminosity.

43
• Influence of luminosity on solar constant at place
of planet.

• Influence of changing solar constant due to changing

orbit.

• Planet’s ability to stabilize external influences.

If these calculations were carried out in detail it would

require a fully equipped institute including staff and
sufficient funding. A primary goal must be to obtain
reliable empirical data about stellar evolution and the
climate histories of the planets. Similar pathways are
being followed for example at NASA Ames Research
Center (McKay et al) and at the University of Hawai’i
(Owen et al) as well as other major international space
research centers around the world.

44
I.3.2.1: Solving Enigmas
There are several enigmas that need to be solved
in order to develop a more detailed understanding of
solar system evolution and climate development on
terrestrial planets in or near habitable zones:

The Deuterium enrichment of Venus’ atmosphere

is a strong indication for ancient water abundance. This
observation is consistent with the standard evolutionary
model of the Sun. If the Sun had an initial luminosity of
70% of the current luminosity, Venus may have been
within the Sun’s initial habitable zone, the IHZ (as
mentioned above Kasting et. al. have used the stellar
flux of 109 years ago at the current Venus orbit as the
upper limit for the inner border of the habitable zone).
The question I want to have answered is whether Venus
(still assumed it had the same orbit as to date) was inside
the IHZ assuming the more conservative value of 1.5 S
for the inner border.

In order to be a candidate for Earth-like

conditions, Venus has to be given some time to cool down
after its formation, so we also have to assume a higher
luminosity for the Sun than the initial luminosity. These
estimates are highly unsure but I will give a luminosity
of 0.75 of the current luminosity, following a “rule of
thumb” stellar evolution.
Using eq. I.7 we arrive at:

0. 75
r1 ≈ ≈ 0. 71AU
1. 5

45
 The above estimate is relatively conservative and
the result is that the current Venus orbit with a semi major
axis of 0.72 AU was just beyond the inner border of r1 =
0.71 AU which should have enabled the planet to
maintain water in all three phases. For the outer border
at that time we arrive at:

0. 75
r2 ≈ ≈ 1.12 AU
0. 53

Therefore even with this conservative assessment,

the two sister planets Venus and Earth were comfortably
placed inside the solar habitable zone which only
spanned a mere 0.41 AU. Mars with its current 1.52 AU
semi major axis would have been far outside the
habitable zone of this simplified model, which leaves
us with another enigma: the apparent abundance of li-
quid water on early Mars, an observation that is not
compatible with current models of stellar and planetary
evolution.
The third unsolved riddle is that of the long term
stability of the Earth’s surface temperature. It seems that
short term temperature variations (e.g. ice ages,
interglacials, warm periods) have far larger amplitudes
than the long term variations that should be expected to
occur due to a 30% increase of the Sun’s luminosity and
the dramatic change of the atmospheric composition.
While searching for a possible solution for these
problems I followed several pathways. Obviously there
are internal and external factors that determine a climate
system, the internal factors being determined by the
planet, the external ones by its “environment”, mainly
dominated by the star but also by early impacts (volatile

46
input, atmospheric disruption etc.). Since the main effect
results from the behavior of the star, the idea arose that
there may be another aspect in addition to the luminosity
evolution. The resulting general hypothesis was:

“The evolution of the star influences the orbits of its

planets.”

There are several ways in which a star might influence

the orbits of planets:

• Stellar mass loss resulting in widening orbits.

• Stellar wind “pushing” on the planet thus affecting

it’s orbit.

• Stellar radiation (light) pushing on the planet like

on a solar sail.

• Stellar magnetic field “dragging” or “braking” the

planet.

• Stellar neutrinos exchanging momentum with planet

matter.

Except in the case of the stellar mass loss, these

are all second or third order aspects but since we talk
about large time scales in the order of 4.5*109 years, I
assumed that an accumulation of these small effects
might turn out to be significant for the position of the
planets in the CHZ thus their climatologically relevant
radiation balance. The basic idea is that while the stellar
luminosity increases the planets are being “pushed”
outwards at the same time by their mother star so that

47
their stay inside the HZ would be increased and the CHZ
would be widened.

Exkurs: Short History of a simple Mistake

One of my candidates for effects of which I

thought it could prove to be significant over long periods
were the accumulated influences of solar wind and so-
lar EM radiation. The idea was as simple as it was simply
wrong: If a planet orbits a star, this star would radiate
photons and particles onto this planet thus transferring
momentum onto the planet that would push it away from
the star. The effect would be small but cumulative over
very long periods thus helping to keep the planet inside
the HZ:

the naive assumption:

h*f from star

Illustration I.4

What I overlooked was something that astronomy

students learn in the beginning of their first semester
(my excuse being here, that even noted Astronomer Prof.
Dr. Duerbeck didn’t think of it when I approached him
with this problem). The mistake resulted from wrong

48
intuition, from looking at a dynamic system in a static
way. I simply did not take into account the effect of
ABERRATION! The result is that my planet is not being
pushed outwards but the opposite - it loses energy and
moves towards the star.

And the “real” situation:

Moon
r
m sta
h*f fro

Aberrated radiation from star

Planet

Illustration I.5

The situation is more easily put into quantitative

terms for a small grain of dust than for a whole planet.
The problem is similar to that of the Poynting-Robertson-
Drag on a dust grain orbiting the Sun - in principle a
variation of the same terms could be applied for planets..
The situation can be approached in two different
ways: seen from the Sun (a) and seen from the dust grain
(b). The basic concept is that the grain absorbs the light
from the Sun and re-emits it isotropically into all
directions.

a) Seen from the Sun, the grain absorbs the light that
comes radial from the Sun and then emits the energy
isotropically in its own rest frame with each photon

49
decreasing the angular momentum according to its mass
equivalent hf/c2, the velocity of the grain Rq/dt and the
grains distance R from the Sun. If we only take into
account non-relativistic terms, we will arrive at a loss-
rate of angular momentum for the grain of

hν 2 1 hν
dL = θ̇ R and dL =
c2 L mc 2

for every photon of which the energy is absorbed

and emitted/scattered again isotropically in the local rest
frame, with m being the mass of the grain.

b) From the grain’s point of view the calculation is dif-

ferent but the result is the same. Here the stellar radiation
arrives at an aberrated angle q’ from the direction in
which it moves.

V
cos θ ' +
cos θ = c =0
V with
1+ cos θ '
c
V
cos θ ' = −
c
Here V equals Rq/dt, which is the grains orbital
velocity. This means the photon transmits a (negative)
momentum pRcosq’ = -(hf/c2)R2q/dt. If a given grain
has the cross section sg we arrive at:

dL Lsol σ g
=− L
dt 4 π R 2 mc 2

50
 No matter from which point of view we analyze
the situation, the grain looses momentum and will
eventually fall into the Sun. In situation a) because the
grain’s mass increases which then is being re-emitted in
all directions, in case b) because of the direct transfer of
momentum by the aberrated photons.
However, the effect is so small that the time a planet
would need to fall into the Sun as a result of the Poynting-
Robertson-Drag actually is in a higher order of
magnitude than the world age, therefore I will not give
this aspect any further consideration. In the case of the
solar wind the situation is again a little different.
The aberrated particles are either absorbed
(naturally without re-emission), so the full momentum
is being transferred, or the planet is shielded by it’s
magnetic field, which considerably increases the
complexity of the problem.
Anyway, the effect is minute as well, and even
more so is the effect of momentum transfer through
solar neutrinos. Those terms certainly can be neglected.
An aspect that may be of some interest is the mass
that is added to the Sun by in-falling dust grains. To
obtain the order of magnitude of the added mass I assume
that one part in 108 of the Sun’s luminosity is either
being absorbed or isotropically scatterd by dust grains
around the Sun. For each grain n we get:

σg
mn c 2 = t n Lsol
π ( RI2 − Rsol
2
)

with RI as the grains initial position.

51
For all grains with MTOTc2 is approx. tTOT(10-
8Lsol). We get:

(10 −8 )(4 × 10 33 erg sec −1 )

−2
= 4.5 × 10 4 g / sec
9 × 10 cm sec
20 2

This means that if all changes over time

(luminosity, dust abundance in the solar system etc.) are
ignored, we arrive at an added mass of ca. 6.4 *1021g
during the last 4.5 billion years, which is 11 orders of
magnitude less than the current 1.989 * 1033g for the
Sun’s mass.

So much to my short story of a simple mistake

that nevertheless brought a useful result. The good thing
is that now (as I have proposed earlier) the situation for
my toy model of the evolution of habitable zones has
become more easy to handle. We already have obtained
equations for the range of the habitable zone around a
star relative to its luminosity, as well as maximum and
minimum flux values for the inner and outer limits of
the HZ. The two changing parameters are the stars'
luminosity as well as the star’s mass. Due to the
conservation of its momentum the planet will move out-
ward from the star if a mass loss occurs thus following
the also outward moving habitable zone, which will
increase the planet’s time in the HZ. For a first estimation
it would be enough to include the following parameters
in the model:

• The Sun’s luminosity at t minus 4*10 9 years

equaling 75% of current luminosity with
approximately linear increase.

52
• The Sun’s mass at t minus 4.5 109 years

• The Sun’s mass loss during this time, based upon

the assumed linear luminosity increase and E=mc2.

• The numerical values for the inner and outer limits

of the HZ and eq. I.7.

• Newton’s correction of Kepler’s law (eq. I.4).

It is not possible for me to perform an accurate

calculation but merely a rough estimate which may give
an indication whether or not the proposed effect is of
importance.

I.3.2.1.1: Mass Change of the Sun

Even during the hydrogen burning phase of a main
sequence star a slight upwards movement on the Hertz-
sprung Russel Diagram occurs. Over several Eons
wandering from the zero-age main sequence (point A)
to point B. This means - as we already know - that the
star becomes brighter and larger. Harwit et. al. estimate
a zero age luminosity of 2.78 * 1033 erg/s (71 % of
current) and a corresponding radius of 6.59 * 108 meters
for the Sun.
The current values are 3.85 * 1033 erg/s12 for
the luminosity and 6.94 * 108 meters for the radius. Since
I assume a simple linear evolution of the Sun’s
luminosity it will be enough to estimate the solar mass
loss using a mean luminosity derived from the initial

53
luminosity at the starting time of the model (0.75 Lsol)
and the current 1.0, which is 0.875 Lsol equaling 3.369
* 1033 erg/s or 3.369 * 1026 J/s. We can calculate the
mass-loss per second as:

E 3.369 × 10 26 J / s
m= 2 = = 3. 74 × 10 9 kg
c (3 × 10 m / s)
8 2

and arrive at a mass-loss of ca. 5.3*1026 kg during the

last 4.5 billion years. This is five orders of magnitude
larger than the mass added by incoming dust but still 4
orders of magnitude under the Sun’s total mass.
Expressed as a fraction the Sun lost about 3*10-4 of its
mass - which means that certainly the effect on the
planetary orbits will be minute and maybe even
insignificant.
On the other hand only a small effect is needed to
increase the time a planet stays within the habitable zone
by a few million years, and a few million years could in
many cases be the difference between primitive life and
a space-faring civilization. Therefore I maintain my
opinion that the universe is designed in a way that makes
it “friendly for life” and following Lovelock’s “Gaia
Hypothesis” I call the positive stellar influence on life
bearing planets the “Aurora Hypothesis”, stressing the
idea that the evolution of the star adds to the time the
planet stays in the habitable zone.
The following illustration shows the movement
of the Sun in the Hertzsprung-Russel Diagram:

54
 B

Illustration I.6

I.3.2.1.2: Internal Regulations of

Planetary Ecosystems
Far more important than effects of stellar
evolution are internal properties of the planets, about
which I will only give a short overview. The increased
environmental awareness and significant research efforts
in the general field of “global environmental change”
have brought about considerable advances in these fields.
It has unfortunately also become very obvious that the
traditionally reductionist approach of science only has
a limited value when applied to the immense complexity
of the whole Earth. The following purely qualitative

55
illustration already gives a first impression of the
complexities involved13 :

noi tartsul lI

Illustration I.7

56
 No matter how complex the models are that we
built, we currently do not yet get beyond the stage of
more or less elaborate toy-models. Some scientists are
known to be quite disturbed because of the apparently
“messy” and somewhat “fuzzy” character of nature,
others - and I include myself among those - are delighted
about nature’s endless complexity and happy to see that
a seemingly endless set of unsolved mysteries still awaits
us.

Nature seems to be characterized by “Chaos” in

the sense of synergetic systems, and it looks as if every
large system has smaller sub-systems with yet smaller
subdivisions and that small effects in one of the sub-sub
divisions may result in big outcomes on the macroscopic
scales. The argument can be carried to the extreme: the
question has been asked whether in the end our
macroscopic world is “controlled” by the uncertainty
principle of quantum mechanics. But this is more a
philosophical discussion and I want to stay on the level
of systems that obviously are of direct relevance for the
planetary ecosystem.
The most important change of atmospheric
composition that occurred on the Earth was the oxygen
enrichment that finally lead to the Cambrian life-
explosion. Only now we begin to understand some of
the details of the atmospheric chemistry that resulted in
the formation of the life-protecting ozone layer.
The following graph gives an impression of some
of the main factors that were of importance for the
oxygen cycle in a microbial dominated paleo-
environment (from L.L. Jahnke and H.P. Klein, 1996):

57
 Illustration I.8

It is clear that a complete modeling of nature will

never be possible. A complete model would have to
account for the details of the metabolic processes of each
micro-organism involved. Nevertheless, statistically
averaged models have proven to be successful in
describing the general behavior of natural systems with
some accuracy, and it seems that larger systems and long
term behavior can be treated more easily than short term
fluctuations. In the following table weather and climate
serve as an example:

58
Effect Time Scale Predictability

Weather hours excellent

Weather days good
Weather one week bad
Weather several weeks zero

Climate one year excellent

Climate 10 years excellent
Climate 100 years excellent
Climate 1000 years good
Climate 10000 years fair
Climate 100000 years fair

Climate here stands for “mean global climate”.

As we saw earlier even ice-ages are relatively minor
fluctuations with little relevance for the life bearing
capability of the planet14 , so the climate can be
predicted over very long time scales. Smaller systems,
such as the behavior of currents in lakes, a predator-
prey population in a well defined area, a single tree
responding to air pollution etc., usually can be modeled
with some accuracy for one seasonal cycle only.
One of the main questions that have to be
answered is whether or not an ecosphere on a planetary
scale is necessary for the formation and /or continuous
survival of life. Following the arguments of James
Lovelock, life must be a planetary phenomenon because
only a large species variety will be able to grant the
necessary stability over long time scales. This would
mean that there cannot be any life elsewhere in the solar
system. But could it not be possible that life survives
and even thrives in small, isolated biotopes that are
shielded from harmful environments? Could there be

59
life in a cave under the surface of Mars or on the seafloor
of the possible Europa Ocean? Although this question
is far from being answered, there are some encouraging
discoveries: Life around hydrothermal vents on the
Earth’s seafloor as well as the lifeforms that had thrived
for millennia in the totally isolated Movile cave15 show
that not only microbes are able to find other sources of
energy than photosynthesis, allowing them to exist
without significant connection to the rest of the
ecosphere. It seems that life is infinitely innovative when
it comes to survival techniques, and if we take into
account the hellish conditions under which life has
formed (or arrived) on early Earth there is a lot of reason
for optimism about the occurrence of life throughout
the universe.

I 3.2.1.3: Mars - More Reasons for

Optimism?
The big question is, to what extend the geological
situation on Mars had determined the possibility of the
occurrence of early lifeforms. We do know that there
was a time when liquid water was abundant on Mars
and rain was falling. Given the extent of the
geomorphological formations that were shaped by water
erosion it is possible to estimate the duration of the
liquid water period as roughly one billion years. Since
some of the impact-craters are filled with sediments and
show wall breaches that most probably were caused by
continuous water flow, the liquid water period must have
extended well beyond the time of the early heavy
bombardment.

60
 Owen et. al. (1996) have proven that Mars had a
dense CO2 atmosphere of at least Earth-like pressure
and perhaps up to several times the surface pressure of
the Earth for at least 700 million years. We must bear in
mind, that on the geological time scale life appeared on
Earth almost immediately after its formation (within the
first 100 to 200 million years) and that the rapid evolution
of higher lifeforms seems to depend on the atmospheres
enrichment with O2 - also leading to the formation of
an Ozone layer that protects the land-life from the deadly
UV radiation. This brings about an interesting conclusion
for Mars.
As McKay et. al. (1996) have lined out, the Mars
geology is quite different from ours since no plate
tectonics occurs. Mars also is smaller, so it may have
cooled sufficiently for life to exist before Earth did. But
the really important point is that because of the lacking
plate tectonics, the lithospheric mantle of the planet did
not have to be oxidized, therefore photosynthesizing
organisms could have enriched the Mars atmosphere
with oxygen to a level comparable to that of the Earth’s
atmosphere during the Cambrian life explosion within
perhaps a mere 100 million years.
This means that even in the case of Owen’s lower
time limit for the existence of a dense atmosphere (700
million years) six hundred million years would have been
available for the evolution of oxygen dependent earth-
type life. A time span that is two hundred million years
longer than what was available on Earth from the
Cambrian life-explosion to the evolution of a space
faring civilization.
My conclusion is that even if we are cautious, it
is quite safe to say that there is at least a slight chance to
find fossils of some sort of higher lifeforms (e.g. land

61
plants) on Mars. Who knows what else could be found.
It is also conceivable under these circumstances that life
on Earth even was seeded by Mars-meteorites following
a heavy impact on Mars. But this is of course purely
speculative. In a private communication (1997) Prof.
Owen remained cautious regarding the possibility of
higher organisms since the life-favoring conditions on
Mars may have only occured in several periods during
the first several hundred million years and therefore the
time may have been too short for the evolution of higher
organisms or even the step from Procaryotes to
Eucaryotes (which in itself took approximately one
billion years on Earth, the reasons for which are not
completely understood yet). Owen concludes that he
would be very happy to find any life (or remainders
therof) at all on Mars. I agree and assume that we will
have to patiently wait for new results of forthcoming
Mars missions.
Hopefully we will learn more about the dynamics
and evolution of planetary atmospheres, which will be
essential for our still very incomplete understanding of
the inner workings of the Earth’s complex ecosphere.

Some general literature used for this part:

Küppers, Bernd Olaf (ed.): Leben=Physik+Chemie?,

Serie Pieper, 1987

Dyson, Freeman: Origins of Life, Cambridge University

Press, 1985

62
deDuve, Christian: Aus Staub Geboren, Spektrum, 1996

Ponnamperuma, Cyril and Chela-Flores, Julian (ed.):

Chemical Evolution: Origin of Life, Proceedings of the
“Trieste Conference on Chemical Evolution and the
Origin of Life”, 1993

Chela-Flores, Julian and Raulin, François (ed.):

Chemical Evolution: Physics of the Origin and Evoluti-
on of Life, proceedings of the 4th Trieste Conference,
1996

Wakeford, Tom and Walters, Martin (ed.): Science for

the Earth, 1995

Doyle, Laurance R. and Sagan, Carl (ed.): Circumstellar

Habitable Zones, proceedings of the first international
conference, 1996

Cosmovici, Cristiano; Bowyer, Start and Werthimer, Dan

(ed.): Astronomical and Biochemical Origins and the
Search for Life in the Universe, proceedings of the 5th
International Conference on Bioastronomy, 1997

63
64
 Part II

Search for Life in the

Solar System

Review of a very ordinary Star System

65
Part II

Search for Life in the

Solar System

II.1: Introduction
The planets in our own solar system naturally were
the first targets for the search for extraterrestrial life.
Lowel’s famous observation of Mars channels (now
known to be an optical illusion) nevertheless was one of
the first attempts to spot signs of alien life with
astronomical means. Science often is little more than
trial and error, thus nobody should be blamed for a
misinterpretation of results. There were various other
attempts to search for life in the solar system using Earth-
based means, however, the real search only began with
the first landing on the moon and the first interplanetary
missions. Here I will concentrate on some of these
missions and other observational research results related
to bioastronomy - theories and concepts were presented
in Part I.

66
II.1.1: An Average Star System
The solar system is a fairly average example for
a star system, the sun being quite an average G2V yellow
dwarf main sequence star without any unusual
spectroscopic or “behavioral” properties. Although it is
not proven yet, we also assume that the formation of
planetary systems is a normal side effect of star
formation, so generally there is no reason to think that
there is anything unusual about the planetary system.
As mentioned elsewhere in this work, astronomer
Otto Struve was the first who found evidence for
planetary systems existing around other stars. This
evidence was a lack in the angular momentum of many
solar-type main sequence stars, which is not in
accordance with star formation theory. There is only one
known explanation: the missing momentum is
distributed onto planets circling these stars.

The one property of the solar system that we have

a certain tendency to consider unusual is ourselves, the
big family of living Earth inhabitants. We do not know
yet whether or not life indeed is a rare phenomenon or
whether it occurs frequently in star systems throughout
the universe. Currently we do not have the technical
abilities of searching for extra solar life other than in-
telligent radio transmitting civilizations. Meanwhile Earth
seems to be the only world in the solar system that
currently is “friendly for life”. We are now searching
for traces of either existing or fossilized life forms, or
geological, geophysical and geochemical hindsight
pointing towards an answer about the question whether
or not this has always been the case. If it would turn out

67
that other worlds once have been “habitable” and
“inhabited” as well, the chance for life - including intel-
ligent life - occurring elsewhere in space will be
dramatically increased. In 1996, it was this objective
that caused all the hysteria about the possibility of
biological traces in the Mars meteorite ALH 84001,0. If
this discovery ever would be confirmed, it would mean
that finally the bacteria, humans and mice on Earth are
not alone - they have (or had) brothers on Mars, and
maybe elsewhere.

There are other (and for the planetary scientist

more interesting) ways to determine the possible former
or current habitability of other planets. A number of
planetary probes had this task included in their missions.
I will give a brief overview of our planetary system from
a bioastronomer’s point of view.

II.2: Inner Solar System: The Search

Begins
Generally it is thought that there can be no life in
the outer regions of a solar system because a minimum
energy input from the star is necessary to establish a
functioning ecosystem on a planet. At the same time
there is a maximum temperature range life - as we know
it - can bear. The zone of moderate temperatures allowing
a planet to develop into a habitable one is called the
habitable zone. A detailed treatment was given in Part
I. Here it shall be sufficient to accept that all planets
except Venus, Earth and Mars are and always were
situated outside the Sun’s habitable zone, and that this

68
zone is changing over time with the evolution of the
Sun’s luminosity. There are, however, some prospects
about discovering facts relevant for bioastronomy in the
outer solar system, namely on the large satellites of
Jupiter and Saturn, especially Europa and Titan.

II.2.1: VENUS
In terms of size and mass Venus certainly is the
one planet that has every right to bear the name “sister
of Earth”, regarding its purely astronomical properties.
I will give some numerical comparisons16 :

Property Venus Earth Factor

Diameter(km): 12102 12756 0.996

Mass (1020 kg): 48.7 59.8 0.814

Density (g/cm3): 5.3 5.5 0.964

Esc. vel. (km/s): 10 11 0.91

Surface Gravity
(m*s-2): 8.9 9.8 0.91

Rotation (h)17 : 5832 24 243

Obliquity 3° 23.5° 0.13

These numbers really let the two planets appear

very similar, and this is the reason why, for quite a while,
astronomers had hoped to also find Earth-like environ-
mental conditions on Venus and imaginations of a hot
exotic world resembling the Earth’s tropical zones

69
pervaded Science Fiction stories for two generations.
Unfortunately this scenario has proven wrong, and some
other astronomical properties of planet Venus differ
considerably from Earth.

Semi Major Axis: The Earth’s orbital semi major

axis, which is also defined as one Astronomical Unit, is
150 million kilometers whereas Venus moves in an orbit
about the sun with a semi major axis of 108 millionk
ilometers or 0.72 AU. This has two side effects: A
substantially higher radiation input and a near tidal lock
of the rotation.

II.2.1.1: The Atmosphere of Venus

Rotation & revolution period: Venus has a
revolution period of 0.62 years which is 226 days. At
the same time the planet needs 243 days for one full
rotation. The slow rotation requires some kind of
effective heat-transportation mechanism from the
insolated side of the planet to its night side.
On Earth the main temperature differences occur
between equator and poles as well as lower and higher
atmospheric regions, thus a vertical (convective) heat
transfer system has established itself. This is the known
Hadley model and the same principle applies (though in
different and not yet fully understood form) to the heat
transfer in the Earth’s oceans. The Earth’s convection
and coriolis force dominated atmospheric heat transfer
balance is called “geostrophic balance”.
The situation on Venus is different. Here the main
temperature differences occur between the night side and

70
the day side of the planet, and a heat transfer mechanism
developed that effectively transports surplus energy from
the dayside to the nightside. No dominating convection
occurs in the upper atmosphere18 , and because of the
slow rotation the influence of the coriolis force is minute,
therefore the heat is transported along the parallels. Wind
velocities of up to 350 km/h result in an atmospheric
superrotation.
These facts already show that despite their
similarities in mass and size the two sister planets are
very different. The real differences however are their
atmospheric compositions, surface pressure and
temperature.
The Venus atmosphere is composed out of 97%
CO2, 3.5% Nitrogen, traces of argon, sulfur dioxide,
water vapor, hydrochloric acid (HCL), hydrofluoric acid
(HF) carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon monoxide19 .
It possesses a surface pressure of 90 bar and a surface
temperature of up to 400°C resulting from an enormous
greenhouse effect20 .
The surface composition is mainly basalt and
probably granite. In Earth’s case the surface mainly
consists of basalt, granite and water, while the major
constituents of the atmosphere are Nitrogen (N2, 78%)
and Oxygen (O2, 21%).
The question now is whether the situation on Ve-
nus has always been as hellish as it is now, or whether
there are signs that indicate a more pleasant past with
high water abundance. If Venus indeed had oceans, the
question is how the planet lost it. If Venus had no liquid
water even in the most distant past, the theoretical
grounding of the liquid-water defined habitable zones
concept is in jeopardy. According to up to date theories
of planetary formation, Venus should originally have

71
possessed approx. the same water abundance as Earth.
And indeed: there is evidence that Venus once possessed
large amounts of water on it’s surface and in it’s
atmosphere. And although detailed surface mapping by
the Magellan spacecraft has not revealed any surface
features that can be explained by water erosion, there is
another indication for former water abundance on Ve-
nus. The predictions made by theoretical models of what
would have happened to water on Venus was confirmed
by the Pioneer Venus spacecraft’s orbiter and main pro-
be in 1981. Theory predicts a runaway greenhouse effect
with water vapor rising up into high levels of the
atmosphere where it would be broken apart by
photochemical processes through the sun’s UV radiation,
principally following the equation

H2O + UV-Sunlight ———> H+H+O

During the runaway greenhouse effect, gradually

all of the water would be vaporized and dissociated. The
Oxygen would react with other substances in the
atmosphere (mainly C forming CO2) and the light Hy-
drogen would mostly escape into space. This process
would leave behind a trace since the two times heavier
Hydrogen Isotope Deuterium would not escape the
gravity of Venus as easily, so a Deuterium enrichment
in the Venus atmosphere should be observed21 . And
this is indeed what Pioneer found. The Hydrogen
enrichment in the upper Venus atmosphere is 100 times
higher than the enrichment found on Earth with its high
water abundance! Professor Tobias Owen wrote that
“This result was so surprising that initially it met with
some skepticism.” And he continues, “But the high
deuterium abundance on Venus has been unequivocally

72
confirmed by measurements of the spectrum of radiation
from Venus’ lower atmosphere made with an Earth based
telescope in 1989.” During these observations,
absorption lines were found of H2O and HDO and they
also have shown the same enrichment ratio.
This is the most dramatic confirmation of the theory that
the conditions on early Venus may have been similar to
that on Earth, and that we can be optimistic regarding
the occurrence of good environmental starting conditions
for the formation of life. At the same time it most
probably will remain the only hint we will get because
unfortunately the high erosion and surface activity on
Venus has destroyed all features from the time of the
early solar system. We will later see that this is different
on Mars.

II.2.1.2: Is Life on Venus Still

Possible?
But is it possible that under the known condition
life could have managed to find an ecological niche, for
example in an atmospheric layer some 50 km above the
surface where Earth like pressures of 750 millibars and
temperatures of around 37°C are found? Several facts
contradict the idea of Venus “Birds and Butterflies”:

• Deadly UV radiation makes the existence of life

unlikely.

• The Venus atmosphere is extremely dry with relative

humidity always under 0.01 %.

73
• The atmosphere in this reason is filled with a mist
consisting of highly concentrated sulfuric acid.

There are indeed some organisms on Earth that

can live in such an environment for a limited time, but
evolution and survival of life as we know it ultimately
needs water. Of course one could wonder whether a dif-
ferent type of life may have evolved under these dramatic
conditions (a question that cannot be answered since we
do not know anything about “different types of life”)
and also whether it may ultimately be possible to change
the conditions on Venus in an act of “Terraforming” so
that the environment would become more pleasing for
possible human settlers.
The problem here is that bringing water for
example would not change the basic conditions like so-
lar radiation input and slow planetary rotation, so the
runaway greenhouse would just begin again. It appears
that in the foreseeable future, Venus will not be of any
interest for any lifeforms other than planetary scientists
or romantic couples in moonless nights.

74
 Surplus Deuterium found

Albedo Reflection

Surface Absorption

Illustration II.1

II.2.2: Is there Life on Earth?

At first sight, the question, “is there life on Earth”,
seems to be absurd. But this only is because we happen
to know that there is life on Earth. The question is how
would we determine the existence of life on our planet
if it were not our planet and we would have to rely on
remote sensing techniques similar to those we apply in
researching the other planets? In 1995 NASA had taken
the opportunity to use the Galileo Spacecraft’s second
approach to Earth during its gravity assisted slingshot
flight to take a close look at our home planet.
A “Planetary Report” article about this unusual
encounter starts as follows:

75
 “The space probe has traveled 2 billion kilometers
and twice circled the central star of this average looking
solar system. As if awakening from a sleep, the sensors
and instruments come alive as it approaches the 3rd
planet. The glint of sunlight reflected from the blue
surface and the distinctive spectral signature of
chlorophyll hint that something is different about this
world...”22

The data transmitted home by Galileo are similar

to those that one would expect to be gathered by an alien
probe visiting the solar system and it is fascinating to
see how easy it is to detect life on a truly living planet.
Water in high abundance is discovered immediately as
well as the spectral signatures of Nitrogen, Methane and
the three most important signs of life: free molecular
Oxygen (O2), Ozone (O3) and Chlorophyll. The unique
spectral resolution of Galileo’s spectral filters happen
to coincide with bands that even allow the determination
of plant species and health! On the other hand from
distances of more than one million kilometers no
immediate visual signs of intelligent or rather
technological activities on Earth could be seen.
The Galileo example shows impressively that an
eco-system on a planetary scale reveals itself in obvious
ways - it may even be possible to detect habitable planets
on interstellar distances and even determine
spectroscopically whether or not they carry life (through
the O3 bands etc.)23 .

76
II.2.3: Mars - Another Planet of Life?
If Venus is called the sister of Earth, Mars certainly
is her brother. Although there are obvious differences
between Earth and Mars, the similarities are just as
striking. Mainly because of its brightness and red color,
Mars has always stirred the imagination of “Earthlings”
and continues to do so at the end of the twentieth century,
since Mars most probably will be the first foreign world
other than the moon on which humans will ever set foot.
Following Earth and Moon, Mars also is the best
explored planet in the solar system. A short comparison
of the physical properties:

Property Mars Earth Factor

Radius (km): 3395 6387 0.53

Mass (g): 6.42*1026 5.98*1027 0.11

Surface Gravity
(m*s-2): 3.7 9.8 0.38
Density (g*m-3): 3.93 5.52 0.71
Rotation (h): 24.5 24 1.02
Length of Year: 686 days 365 days 1.88
Obliquity: 23.9° 23.5° 1.02
Teff (K): 216 246 0.88

The table shows that especially rotation and

obliquity of Mars and Earth are very similar, so that
future Mars settlers will not have to get used to a new
day and night cycle, and even the seasons are similar to
those on the home planet. Also the total surface of Mars
happens to be almost identical to the total continental

77
land surface on Earth. All in all the prerequisites for life
on Mars appear to be quite promising - despite several
drawbacks:

• The atmosphere is extremely thin with a surface

pressure of only 0.006 bar.

• The atmosphere is mainly composed out of CO2.

• The atmosphere is dry and contains no significant

amounts of free Oxygen or Nitrogen

• The surface is sterilized by UV radiation allowing

only for subsurface life (the small amount of Ozone
is located near the surface).

• The surface is highly cratered which indicates that

the atmosphere of Mars has been thin for at least
two billion years.

At the same time there are prominent signs of

better environmental conditions in the past. There are
large geologic features that obviously were not only
formed by water erosion but actually by rain! And we
still find large reservoirs of water stored in the ice of the
northern polar cap (the smaller southern polar cap mainly
consists of CO2 ice)24 .
These discoveries were the motivation for a large
number of automated spacecraft that visited Mars and
that will visit Mars in the near future. All of these
missions bear at least some relevance for the search for
life on Mars, but the two missions that were the first
with the clear objective of searching for life of course
were the Viking missions with their two landers in

78
Chryse Planitia and Utopia Planitia, but there were also
other space probes visiting the red planet.

II.2.3.1: Robots searching for Life on

Mars (summary)
The first close look at Mars was provided by the
Mariner 4 craft as early as July 15, 1965. This was mainly
an optical reconnaissance mission followed by similar
fly-by missions (Mariner 6 and 7) in 1969. The first hu-
man object in orbit around Mars finally was Mariner 9
in 1971.
Mariners 6 and 7 discovered Ozone
concentrations of less than 1 pbm using UV
spectroscopy, and Mariner 9 established an upper limit
for the methane concentration of 25 pbm in the Martian
atmosphere. (Earth values: 50 pbm Ozone; 1000 pbm
methane).
The low surface pressure of 6 millibars ruled out
the existence of liquid water, and the thin CO 2
atmosphere provides a greenhouse effect that rises the
temperature by only 5 K.
The minimum temperatures fall below the
freezing point of CO2 (-125°C) and even on an average
day the temperature falls to -90°C just before dawn. Still
some scientists think that life might exist on Mars even
under these harsh conditions because various Earth
organisms could survive in this environment provided
they are shielded from the UV radiation (by living under
rocks or in deeper soil layers) and provided they have at
least a minimum amount of liquid water available. It is
also quite possible that Mars currently is experiencing

79
an extreme ice age and that the conditions will become
more favorable in the future.

In order to find an answer to the question whether

or not some form of microbial life exists on Mars, there
was only one possibility: a probe needed to be equipped
with a lander and automatic little robot laboratories that
could test for signs of lifeforms in the red Martian soil.
The Viking mission plan was born. It called for two
vessels each including a lander and an orbiter that could
operate independently. They arrived on Mars in summer
1976. Although not all hopes were fulfilled, the mission
generally was a great success.

The following table shows scientific payload and

mission objectives of the Viking project25 :

Investigation Instruments

Viking Orbiter

Visual Imaging Two TV cameras

Water vapor mapping Infrared spectrometer

Thermal mapping Infrared radiometer

Viking Lander

Imaging Two facsimile cameras

Biology Three analyses for

metabolism, growth, or
photosynthesis

Molecular analysis Gas chromatograph-mass

spectrometer (GCMS)

80
Inorganic analysis X-ray fluorescence
spectrometer

Meteorology Pressure, temperature,

and wind velocity gauges

Seismology Three-axis seismometer

Magnetic properties Magnet on sampler

observed by cameras

Physical properties Various engineering

sensors

Radio Propagation

Orbiter/lander location Orbiter and lander radio

and radar systems
Atmospheric and planetary data
Interplanetary medium
General relativity

Although the remote sensing aspects of the

mission are very interesting, I will concentrate on the
biological experiments.
Radar observations from Earth helped to
determine safe landing sites for the two landers. It turned
out that the soil at the touch down sites in both cases
was soft enough to allow the Vikings to take samples
for their analysis. Tobias Owen said: “The scientific
criteria for a landing site leaned heavily on the search
for life on Mars”. In the ideal case the Viking team would
have wished for a “warm, wet and inhabited” landing
site. Unfortunately of course it was already known that
no “warm and wet” places exist on Mars - at least not
warm and wet from an earthling's point of view.

81
II.2.3.1.1: Experiments for Life
Three experiments on board the Viking landers
were specifically designed for the search for life. Before
describing the biological experiments, I will give a short
table with the results of the chemical soil analysis at the
two landing sites:

Element Percentage of Total Composition of Soil

Site 1 Site 2
Silicon 20.9 +-2.5 20.0+-2.5
Iron 12.7+-2.0 14.2+-2.0
Magnesium 5.0+-2.5
Calcium 4.0+-0.8 3.6+-0.8
Sulfur 3.1+-0-5 2.6+-0.5
Aluminum 3.0+-0.9
Chlorine 0.7+-0.3 0.6+-0.3
Titanium 0.5+-0.2 0.6+-0.3
All Others (thought 50.1+-4.3
to be mostly Oxygen)

The above table shows that the element abundance

on Mars is very similar to those found on Earth. On the
other hand the overwhelming predominance of carbon
dioxide seems to be clear evidence for a planetary
evolution in absence of life and water.

The Viking scientists made the following

assumptions, when they designed the biological
experiments:

• We have no reason to expect other life bearing

planets to differ largely in the general development
and evolution of life.

• If there is life, there are micro-organisms similar to

those found on Earth.

82
• If there is life, it will be Carbon/Water based life.

• If there will be life, it will be life according to Earth

definition - with metabolism, replication etc.

Based upon these assumptions (plus the

assumption that the sterilization of the Viking crafts were
successful and no Earth microbes would be detected)
the following three experiments were included in the
Vikings’ miniature laboratories:

1) The Gas Exchange Experiment (GEX)

2) The Labeled Release experiment (LR)
3) The Pyrolitic Release experiment (PR)

All these experiments are based upon our

scientific experience with Earth life. All organisms on
Earth derive their energy from two basic processes:
oxidation and reduction, thus both processes should be
present in Mars soil if life exists in it. The GEX and the
LR experiment both followed the procedure to “offer”
food to the hypothetical Martians and try to detect traces
of metabolic by-products. The GEX experiment mixed
soil samples with several dozen nutrient solutions that
are preferred by Earth organisms (which is why the GEX
was coined the “Chicken Soup Experiment” by insiders).
Tobias Owen again: ”On Earth, the chicken-soup
approach would reveal the presence of life through
changes in the amount of oxygen, carbon dioxide or
hydrogen in the air above the soil caused by the
metabolic activity of organisms in the soil”.

83
 Soil sample

Gas detector

Gas chromatograph
Soil support
Nutrient

The GEX Experiment

The LR experiment was able to search for

biological activity more directly by tagging carbon-rich
compounds of the soil with radioactive C14 atoms
replacing some of the common C12 atoms. If any
biological process had occurred the metabolic byproduct
could be identified easily because they would also
contain the tag atoms and some tagged compounds
should appear at the place of the detector.

There are two problems the GEX and LR

experiments had to face: Nutrients that may be preferred
by Earth organisms may turn out to even be poisonous
to Mars organisms, and since liquid water cannot
currently exist on Mars, the local microbes may be
completely unused to watery conditions.

84
 C14 detectors

Nutrient

Soil sample The Labeled Release

Experiment (LR)

The Pyrolitic Release Experiment was designed

to cope with these problems by altering the Martian
environment as little as possible. The “simulated”
Martian atmosphere was only enriched with tagged C14
that could later be traced in possible metabolic by
products. The organisms that may have lived in the soil
were allowed to “thrive and reproduce” for a certain time
under the conditions they were used to, before the soil
sample was heated to 750°C. The volatiles that were
released during this process were caught in a vapor trap
and from there they went into a counting chamber where
the radioactivity of the gas could be determined. Any
organism that had “inhaled” the tagged “air” should have
been found.

85
 Xenon arc lamp

Window

Organic vapor trap

Soil sample
C14 labeled gas C14 detector

Pyrolysis heater

The Pyrolitic Release Experiment (PR)

II.2.3.1.2: Results of the Viking

Search for Life
The measurement of the GEX had a positive
result. And at first the excitement was great when the
LR experiment confirmed the results! Unfortunately the
observations could also be explained by simple
geochemical reactions. An example is the possible
reaction of H2O2 with HCOOH (from the nutrient
solution) which would form water and CO2. A second
wetting of the soil also showed no increase of the
measured radioactivity which is a clear indication of a
purely inorganic chemical reaction that took place in
the test chamber. The conclusion of the researchers was

86
that instead of having found life they had found a
chemically active soil type that contained compounds
like peroxides that produced CO2 when brought together
with simple organic substances.

The PR experiment required an “incubation time”

of five days, and it also had a very weak but positive
result. Apparently the Martian soil behaved very similar
to antarctic soil which is almost sterile but still harbors
some microbial life. Unfortunately there is a drawback
again: Even when the soil sample was heated to 175°C
or to 90°C for three hours (which should have sterilized
the sample) before the air was tagged with C14, the
experiment still yielded positive results. The higher
temperature reduced the positive result by 90% and the
lower temperature had no effect at all. It is more than
unlikely that any organism could have adapted to such
extreme temperatures. Finally the conclusion was that
not micro-organisms but ammonia that had leaked from
the Viking’s own propulsion system was responsible for
the positive reaction of the PR experiment.

No life was discovered on Mars so far, but this

doesn’t mean that it isn’t there - or that it once was26 -
although another experiment, the GCMS (Gas
Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer) also brought ne-
gative results that are even more convincing. For the
GCMS soil was “baked” and the resulting volatiles were
scrutinized for organic compounds, including non-
biological ones. This experiment had previously brought
clear positive results when it was tested on antarctic soil
and on material from meteorites such as the Murchinson
meteorite, a carbonatic chondrite containing organic
material, including amino acids. The well grounded

87
assumption is that there is no life where there is no
organic material. Since no organic material whatsoever
was found, the conclusion really is safe, that all positive
results of the Viking bio-experiments were caused by
purely inorganic27 chemical reactions.

II.2.3.1.3: Future Life-Searching

Missions
It is still possible that the Viking landers simply
looked in the wrong places. If an alien probe landed
somewhere in the middle of one of Earth’s large deserts
it would be impossible to derive from these data the
existence of tropical rain forests, coral reef communities
or arctic sea floor habitats. And Chryse Planitia as well
as Utopia Planitia indeed could be regarded as “deserts”
on Mars conditions. There are regions on the red planet
that may provide better prerequisites for life to thrive
(for example on the edges of the north polar water ice
cap), although better still does not necessarily mean it is
good enough. Despite the possible signs of life found in
Mars meteorite ALH 84001,0 it is quite safe to claim
that no known lifeform could exist on the surface of our
neighbor planet.

A whole fleet of “small but beautiful” Mars

missions are scheduled for launch by various nations
during the next ten years. One of the cornerstone
missions however was the Russian/German/American
“Mars ‘96” mission which failed directly after its launch
and crashed into the Pacific somewhere south-west of
Rapa Nui, the Easter Island. The Russian missions have

88
been followed by bad luck during the last two decades
with several crafts getting lost or malfunctioning
prematurely. The following list gives an overview of
Mars missions as scheduled on March 6, 199628 listing
Mission name, type of spacecraft involved, planned or
actual launch time and the participating nations:

Mars Global Surveyor Orbiter, Nov. 5-20, 1996, USA

Comments: Carries five replacements for Mars Observer’s Instru-
ments: French-supplied data relay system will send information from
Russian and US spacecraft on Mars surface.

Mars 96, Russian, German, American (failure)

Comments: This was a highly sophisticated mission which included
one orbiter, two small stations and two penetrators that would have
been able to search for organic compounds in deeper layers of Martian
soil. The orbiter had a camera equipment that would have allowed
to image surface features with a resolution of down to a few meters.

Mars Pathfinder, lander and microrover, December‚ 96, USA

Comments: This mission mainly is intended to be a “technology
demonstration” for more extensive future Mars missions. the
microrover was named “Sojourner” by a student during a Planetary
Society/JPL naming contest. This was NASA’s second launch as part
of the “Discovery Program”.

Mars Surveyor ‘98, Orbiter, December 1998, USA

Comments: This is a small orbiter that will continue the Mars
Observer science recovery. Mars together begins with the Pressure
Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR).

Planet B, Orbiter, August 1998, Japan

Comments: Mission is mainly atmospheric physics (aeronomy).

Mars Surveyor ‘98, Lander, January 4, 1999, USA

Comments: The lander will touch down near the polar region, carries
a stereo photo imager, a robot arm to collect samples and also a
descent camera, a Russian laser-ranging instrument and a New
Millennium micropenetrator.

89
Mars 2001, Rover or small stations, 2001, Russia/int.
Comments: Formerly Mars ‘98; mission yet to be defined in detail;
to be launched on Molniya vehicle; perhaps part of “Mars Together”.

Mars Surveyor ‘01, Orbiter, 2001, USA

Comments: Expected to carry the replacement of Mars Observer’s
Gamma Ray Spectrometer; perhaps part of “Mars Together”

Mars Surveyor ‘01, Lander, 2001, USA

Comments: Mission will be defined later in 1997 based upon NASA
proposals

Mars Surveyor ‘03, to be determined, 2003, USA

Comments: Mission is not yet defined

Mars Samp. Ret.‘05, To be determined, 2005, USA/Int.

Comments: Mission is not yet fully defined; Russia and the US have
begun feasibility studies

Intermarsnet, Orbiter and landers, 2005?, EU and USA

comments: The ESA has not yet decided upon the proposed mission;
it originally was scheduled for 2003

A specific enigma is the Mars atmosphere: on the

one hand it is obvious that in the distant past the
atmospheric conditions were such, that they allowed li-
quid water to exist and flow on the surface in large
quantities. This means that temperature and surface
pressure on Mars must have been much larger, the latter
at least one order of magnitude: Questions arise regarding
the mechanisms that caused the enormous atmospheric
mass loss on Mars as well as regarding the sources of
the original volatiles that made up the ancient
atmosphere. Analyzing abundance of certain isotope
ratios in the Mars atmosphere and in SNC meteorites
Owen and Bar-Nun29 arrived at the conclusion that the
original atmosphere was mainly replenished by cometary
and meteoritic impact. They arrive at an original

90
atmospheric pressure of at least 7.5 mb which would be
enough to allow for a substantial greenhouse effect. At
the same time impact erosion might be responsible for
the later mass loss of the Martian atmosphere.
Several problems remain and the model is far from
being proven. One of them are the isotope ratios of
various noble gases, another the assumed existence of
low amounts of methane that seems to be revealed by
spectroscopic measurements. It also is not clear yet
whether Mars once had its own magnetic field or
perhaps still has a weak field that could not be detected
by earlier measurements. The one Mars mission devoted
to these issues is the Japanese Planet B Probe. Here is a
short overview of the planned duties and
instrumentation30 :
Magnetic Field Sensor to take Measurements to determine if Mars
has its own magnetic field that is draped around the planet
Thermal-plasma analyzer to measure composition of ionospheric
ions along track of craft
Electron-temperature probe to measure temperature of nonospheric
electrons
UV spectrometer for remote sensing of ionospheric constituents, data
gathering about D/H ratio in upper atmosphere
Sounder and HF waves instrument to analyze constituents of upper
ionosphere, high frequency plasma waves, providing information
on Martian sub-surface features
Plasma waves instrumen to measure low frequency plasma waves
Imaging camera for imaging of planet and moons in three colors
Dust counter to determine distribution and nature of dust in
interplanetary space between Earth and Mars; searching for possible
dust rings around Mars
Extreme UV scanner and spectrometer to provide data for future
imaging of the magnetosphere and measure helium ions in the upper
atmosphere

91
Neutral gas mass spectrometer for the detailed determination of
constituents of the neutral atmosphere
Radio science will collect detailed information on the ionosphere’s
electron density and the neutral atmospheric pressure.
Electron-spectrum analyzer, ion-spectrum analyzer, ion-mass
imaging spectrograph, energetic ion-composition spectrometer
will measure the energy spectra, pitch angle distribution and amount
of ions and electrons escaping the atmosphere

Although studying the upper atmosphere of Mars

may not be appealing to the imagination of the general
lay public as landing on the planet’s surface, it certainly
is at least as important for our quest to understand it’s
climate history and thus therefore the possibility of life
existing (or having existed) on our cosmic neighbor.

II.2.3.2: Other Objectives

Mars is Earth’s direct neighbor and currently the
environmental conditions there most closely resemble
those on Earth, so naturally Mars is at the very focus of
bioastronomical research. At the same time Mars is not
the only object in the solar system that is relevant for
bioastronomy. Model calculations show that objects like
Saturn’s moon Titan may be very common in space and
some scientists see the possibility of cold organic
chemistry taking place on the surfaces and in the
atmosphere of such objects replacing water as a solvent
with organic compounds such as liquid methane. Another
possibility is the occurrence of a moderately temperated
environment under the icy surfaces of moons. A widely
discussed example is the Jupiter moon Europa where
free oxygen far away from equilibrium has been

92
spectroscopically detected in recent years. It is assumed
that due to internal heating induced by tidal stresses, an
environment similar to Earth’s deep ocean may exist. If
ever it will be proven that life on Mars still exists and
that giant planets produce their own little “habitable
zones”, the general probability of life occurring in space
will have largely increased - including the probability
of highly developed life. All space missions carry
payloads that are of relevance for bioastronomy - the
next twenty years will be the first golden age of “Search
for Life in the Universe” on all levels. This will be of
pivotal importance for the advancement of environ-
mental research here on Earth.

General Literature Used for Part II:

A. Unsöld, B. Baschek: Der Neue Kosmos, Springer,

Berlin, 1989

J. Fiebag und T. Sasse: Mars - Planet des Lebens, ECON,

1996

F. Dyson: Infinite in All Directions, Harper & Row, 1989

B.O. Küppers(Ed.): Leben=Physik+Chemie?, Serie

Piper, 1990

P.W. Atkins: Schöpfung ohne Schöpfer, Rowohlt, 1984

J. Heidmann: La Vie dans l’univers, Hachette, Paris,

1989

93
C. de Duve: Aus Staub geboren, Spektrum Akademi-
scher Verlag, Berlin, 1996

L.R. Doyle (Ed.): Circumstellar Habitable Zones, Travis

House, 1996

C.B. Cosmovici (Ed.): Astronomical and Biochemical

Origins and the Search for Life in the Universe, Editrice
Compositori, Bologna, 1997

Various issues of the following periodicals:

Bioastronomy News, SetiQuest, Mars Underground

News, SETI News, Scientific American, Physikalische
Blätter, Bild der Wissenschaft, Physik in unserer Zeit,
Planetary Report

94
 Part III

Climate Policy and

Politics - a Regional
Example

Sane David loses in the Real World of Power

and Money Goliaths

95
Part III

Climate Policy and

Politics - a Regional
Example

III.1: Introduction
It has only been generally accepted for
approximately 150 years, that the Earth as a whole is
not a static system but instead subject to continuous long-
term environmental change on a local and global scale
(for example Lyell, 1830-33). Adverse short-term
impacts on local environments due to human agricultural
and later industrial activities have been noticed by
various intellectuals in the 18th century (Grove, 1994).
These impacts, including local climate change as
a result of massive deforestation, were mainly evident
in small tropical island colonies of European colonial
powers. At that time, rigorous empiricists of the French
enlightenment, among them Jean Jaques Rousseau,
demanded active environmental protection for economic,
aesthetic and moral reasons (Grove, 1990).
J. Spotswood Wilson was among the first who
expressed concerns about the global impact of human

96
activities. In 1858 he described a scenario reminiscent
of modern global warming models. He warned that
deforestation, alterations of the landscape and intensive
agriculture could lead to a change in atmospheric
composition, mainly a change of the oxygen / carbon
dioxide ratio, which then would lead to global droughts,
and eventually the Earth would become uninhabitable
for human beings (Grove, 1994). Wilson’s qualitative
assessment was principally confirmed by Svanthe
Arrhenius (1896) who estimated the influence of
industrial CO2 input into the atmosphere using for the
first time the quantitative methods of newly developed
atmospheric physics and chemistry.
He estimated that a doubling of the atmospheric
CO2 content would result in a global warming of 4°C to
6°C, a value surprisingly close to the latest estimates
(Cubasch, 1992- 1998; Brauch, 1996; Schönwiese,
1996).
The idea of global warming remained a scientific
obscurity even after global environmental concerns were
re-discovered in the early sixties and seventies and for
the first time received wide public attention (Carson,
1962; Meadows et al, 1972; Earle, 1996).
Two different „schools“ of thinking concerned
with global environmental change evolved, one of which
was resource oriented and rooted in economics (such as
again Meadows et al/Club of Rome, 1972), the other
was focused on ecology and had its origins in the natural
sciences (for example Lovelock/Margulis, 1974).
In the meantime, a global environmental
movement formed, ample scientific evidence for many
aspects of global environmental change was collected
and confirmed (for example Barney et al/GLOBAL
2000, 1980; IPCC, 1992; Holland/Petersen, 1995;

97
Williams, 1996; Wakeford/Walters, 1996;) and the need
for political action meeting the challenge of global
change had arisen (Brundtland et al/UNCED, 1987 and
UNCED, 1992; Redclift/Benton, 1994; Sarre and
Reddish, 1996). „Sustainability“ as a goal of national
and international policies was now widely demanded.

Although within the scientific community a

general consensus now exists that global environmental
change 1) exists 2) poses a threat to nature 3) endangers
future development (for example Lippold et al, 1992),
major political and economical groups still simply deny
the existence of a problem (among them Bailey, 1998).
The arguments became very complex, and different
philosophies and ethical points of view are now evident,
ranging from deep ecology (every lifeform has a value
of its own and should be protected) to something that
could be called „deep capitalism“, where only profit
counts (Altvater, 1996).
The deep trench between environmentalists and
capitalists is not likely to be bridged in the near future,
and they both represent extreme points of view that do
not form the theme of this work, which instead focuses
on the general scientific consensus and a concrete case
of related political action.

The one aspect of global environmental change

that has received the widest public and political attention
is the additional anthropogenic greenhouse effect and
associated global warming (Schönwiese, 1989-1998;
Bach, 1982-1998; Cubasch, 1989-1998; Crutzen, 1989,
1994; Kleine/Thiesen, 1991; Latif, 1998). Changing
weather and climate patterns as well as „surprising

98
atmospheric events“ (Lovelock, 1996) caused by glo-
bal warming would affect every part of the Earth and
therefore could be considered the most global of all en-
vironmental problems. This work therefore focuses on
scientific results and the effectivity of local environmen-
tal policies in the field of climate policies related to glo-
bal warming.
The main question that arises is: are traditional
local political and economic structures as well as legal
tools in a free market society able to develop and
implement strategies and actions appropriate for the
challenge at hand? And another question: how is
„appropriate“ to be defined? The implementation of
sound environmental indicators is necessary.
The current standing of research on global
warming and related policies will be reviewed, as will
recommendations of scientists and the results of climate
protection actions in Germany’s „Klimahauptstadt“
(Climate Capital) 1997, the city of Münster, will be
compared. The goal of this work is to obtain a quantita-
tive estimate of the difference between the demands of
science and environmental pressure groups on the one
side, and one of the best achievements in the real world
on the other.

99
III.2: The Example of Climate
Change: A General Overview of
Research and Policies;

III.2.1: Global Results and Activities

Approximately 50% of the world-wide
anthropogenic greenhouse gas output in the 80s was
related to the energy- and traffic sectors, 80% of which
were CO2 emissions. The industrialized regions USA,
EU and Japan are responsible for 34% of all greenhouse
gas emissions (World Resources Institute, 1992). In
1986, the United States alone emitted 23,8% of all CO2,
both German states reached 5,3%, Japan 4,6%, together
33,7% (Enquête Kommission des Deutschen Bundesta-
ges I, 1990).
In 1989 the energy-related CO2 emissions were:
USA 22,3%; EU 11,8%; remaining OECD 9,9% or
together 44% (Oberthür, 1993). The former German
Democratic Republic (DDR) was the leading per-capita
emitter with 21,2 t, followed by the United States with
19,7 t, the old Federal Republic of Germany with 11,7 t
and Japan with 7,5t (Enquête Kommission des Deut-
schen Bundestages I, 1990).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has presented a general consensus of results
regarding the scale of the threat caused by global
warming. This consensus was signed by 2000 leading
meteorologists and climatologists from 130 countries
(IPCC 1992, 1994, 1996). Among the results presented
in these reports are (after Lashof, 1996; Brauch, 1996):

100
• The atmospheric CO2 content rose by 30% since
pre-industrial times
• The global mean temperature rose by 0.3°C to 0.7°C
during the last 100 years
• The global mean temperature will rise between
0.9°C and 5°C until the year 2100
• The mean sea level will rise between 15 and 95 cm

IPCC experts advised that - in order to minimize

the negative effects of climate change - energy related
greenhouse emissions in the industrialized countries
should be reduced by at least 20% until 2005 and by at
least 80% until 2050, compared to the emissions of 1987
(Brauch, 1996).
It has to be taken into account, that energy related
emissions will continue to show substantial growth rates
in the developing world due to increasing economic
growth (for example Reusswig, 1996).

During the 1992 UNCED conference in Rio de

Janeiro, the Framework Convention on Climate Change
was signed by 150 states and ratified by 50 states within
the following 18 months. „The agreement ... was perhaps
the most important achievement of the 1992 Earth sum-
mit“ (Reddish and Blackmore, 1996:285). Although no
emission reductions were agreed upon and the
convention was not legally binding, a legal regime was
established to cope with global warming and the
convention was brought into force in 1994 (Simonis,
1996).
In 1994, the per capita emissions per year were
20,2 t for North America, 13,0 t for the united Germany
and 8,1 t for Japan (Brauch, 1996), showing a general

101
increase, especially when population growth is
considered, due to which the total emission may rise
even if per capita emissions are reduced.

The three leading industrial countries are

responsible for 1/3 of the global CO 2 related
anthropogenic greenhouse effect. No relevant global or
per-capita emission reduction was so far achieved. At
the same time the Japanese economy uses energy roughly
3 times more efficient than the North American or
German, 7,4 time more efficient than the East European
and 9 times more efficient than the Asian economies,
including China (Scientific Advisory Council on global
Change, 1995; Brauch, 1996). This already shows that
increased efficiency is one possible way to reach the
global reduction goals demanded by the IPCC (Weiz-
säcker et al., 1995).
Other possibilities include energy taxation, trading
of emission certificates, „joint implementation“ of
reduction measures (such as implementing modern low-
pollution „OECD“ technologies in the developing world)
and many more.
All of these have strong opponents for various
economic and ideological reasons (Sandbrook, 1996;
Jarass, 1998, Bailey, 1998). Generally the economic
lobbies appear to have been successful, and internatio-
nal agreements - such as the Kyoto Protocol - cannot be
considered relevant if compared to IPCC
recommendations (ECO Newsletter/NGO Newsletter,
1997).

102
III.2.2: General Results and
Activities in Germany
The federal government of West Germany and
later the re-united republic brought several commissions
and advisory councils into life in order to establish a
foundation of solid facts about global environmental
change/global warming. The first of these, the Enquête
Kommission or „EK I“ (Study Commission) „Schutz
der Erdatmosphäre“ (Protection of the Earth’s
Atmosphere) was established in 1987. It was followed
by a second commission, the „EK II“, in 1991.
Another main advisory body is the „Wissenschaftlicher
Beirat Globale Umweltveränderungen“ (scientific
advisory council on global environmental change) of
the German federal government.

Especially the EK I was characterized by an open

discussion and thorough scientific assessment of the
global warming problem (Kords, 1996). The EK I had
22 members - half of them scientists, the other half
members of parliament - and 51 independent research
institutes were involved in the preparation of 150
individual studies.
Despite far reaching ideological disagreements
and differing opinions among the political members, the
EK I (among other results) finally recommended a CO2
reduction of 30% until 2005 for Germany (based upon
1987) and 20 to 25% for the EU in the same period. It
therefore went substantially beyond the minimal
recommendations of the IPCC (Schmidbauer et al/EK
I, 1990; further comments below).

103
 Interestingly neither the German Green Party nor
environmental non-governmental organizations (with the
exception of Greenpeace) showed interest in cooperating
with the EK I and did not contact the commission, which
at that time was one of the major „players“ in the field
of global environmental policy in Germany (Kords,
1996).

The EK II was established to continue the work

begun by the EK I and prepare the German government
for the UNCED conference 1992, but the general
conditions had changed (Kords, 1996; Hartenstein,
1996). After the re-unification of the two German states,
public interest in environmental issues had declined,
economic and social problems began to dominate
(Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen, 1994; Kords,
1996).
The EK II was more dominated by political than
by scientific work (Bach, 1992) and a number of lobbies
were able to influence the commission by various means
(Mayntz, 1993). The most obvious case was that one of
the EK II „Experts“ was a department head at the
automobile producer Daimler Benz, which must be
regarded as a severe conflict of interest (Mayntz, 1993;
Kords, 1996). Fundamental differences among the
various commission members became evident in the
fields of transportation and the regulatory role of the
state in a market economy.
Although ideological differences were
considerable and remained unresolved, the EK II
accepted the scientific results as presented by the IPCC
and EK I and recommended various actions, although
those recommendations remained vague (Kords, 1996;
Schellnhuber, 1993).

104
 The EK II did not fully achieve the goal of
developing concrete action plans, although various fields
of possible activities were identified. An inter-ministe-
rial working group (Interministerielle Arbeitsgruppe,
IMA) „CO2 reduction“ had been installed in 1990, and
together with the EK II the original EK I reduction goals
were partly taken back (25% minimum until 2005 instead
of 30%). The reduction goal was later ratified by the
federal government and nevertheless represents the
world’s strongest reduction commitment (Schafhausen,
1996).
The IMA developed a federal action plan for CO2
reductions, which, largely due to the conflicting interests
of various political pressure groups and economical
lobbies, generally were not carried out (Schafhausen,
1994; Kords, 1996).

Although the high reduction goals of the German

government are impressive, they largely reflect
Germany’s special historical situation (Ganseforth,
1996). As seen above, the German Democratic Republic
had the world’s highest energy related per capita CO2
emission resulting from a highly inefficient and largely
coal based economy. This situation dramatically changed
after the re-unification of East and West Germany. The
collapse of the East German economy, euphemistically
called „re-structuring“, resulted in an immensely
decreased per capita emission (minus 46,9%) for East
Germany between 1987 and 1994 (Schafhausen, 1996).
In the same period the per capita emission reduction for
West Germany was 6%31 .
It is important to bear in mind that despite these
impressive relative values the average per capita CO2
emission for Germany was 13 tons compared to 11,7

105
tons for West Germany alone in 1989. This is not the
progress the German government advertises. In fact it
is an increase of more than eleven percent compared to
the better West German value (Bach, 1998).
Although the total emission of the new republic
was indeed decreased by 168 million tons or 15,8%
compared to the value of 1987, the emissions have begun
to rise again with increased economic growth, re-
established industrial production and continuously
increasing traffic density in East Germany (Schafhausen,
1996; WBGU, 1998)32 .
In addition to federal activities, climate protection
agencies, round-tables, Agenda 21 offices and many other
organizations, activities and networks dealing with
climate change were established locally in the last years,
many „first steps“ have been taken in numerous
communities. This is marked by substantial difficulties
since the energy market is monopolized in Germany and
most energy related laws (including general building
codes) are federal laws, therefore the influence of local
authorities is relatively limited.

106
III.3: Methodology

III.3.1: Research Methods and

Sources
The complexity of the issues „Global Change“
and „Environmental Policies“ made it necessary to select
examples and search for a simplified approach. „Climate
Change“ and energy related CO2 emissions were chosen
as the problem, and the city of Münster was chosen as
the sample region, for which the effectivity of policies
was evaluated. „Climate Change“ is one of the most
popular environmental issues, and the city of Münster
was identified as the community employing the most
effective climate protection policy in Germany.
This work will therefore assess the effectivity of
policies in the „best“ community relating to one of the
most pressing long-term problems. The effectivity can
be expected to be above average. An objective analysis
of climate and energy policies in Münster therefore
should give a good impression of how effective envi-
ronmental policy in a modern industrial country can be.

Most publications currently available about Mün-

ster as well as protocols of city council meetings in Mün-
ster relating to climate and energy policy were obtained
and reviewed and compared to independent scientific
publications. Conferences and symposia on environmen-
tal policy held in Münster in 1997 and ’98 were attended
to obtain an up-to-date impression of current
developments and opinions. Informal interviews were
conducted with conference participants.

107
 These activities were complemented by personal
contacts and interviews with various scientists and
administrators in Münster and elsewhere during the last
two years. The formal interviews took the form of an
opinion poll with the purpose of obtaining educated
opinions of informed individuals that could serve to
establish an additional qualitative impression. Ad hoc
interviews took place during conferences and symposia.
Organized formal interviews were conducted in personal
talks (3 interview partners) and utilizing internet
technology (email poll - 22 questionaires were sent out,
6 answers were solicited, 3 of which resulted in the
mentioned formal personal interviews).
The main epistemological concept behind the
interviews is the assumption that experts who are
involved in the subject on various levels have gained
substantial insight from different perspectives that cannot
easily be emulated by a single research effort. The
intention was to utilize the experts’ opinions to
complement the research, fill in the remaining gaps and
qualitatively test the results.

Otherwise the nature of the task at hand resulted

in a literature based approach, utilizing data, reports and
opinions from as many different sources as possible. An
extensive survey of literature on global change - focusing
on global warming - was followed by the analysis of
literature related to political and scientific activities in
Germany and more specifically to local climate and
energy research and policies in Münster.
An important source were the various reports of
the city’s „Beirat für Klima und Energie“, together more
than 2000 pages of detailed regional analysis published
between 1992 and 1995 (Gertis et al, 1995).

108
III.3.2: Münster - Germany’s
„Climate Capital“ 1997
The city of Münster is the administrative, cultural
and economic center of Westphalia, the north-western
half of the German Bundesland „Northrhine
Westphalia“. A town with a population of approx.
250.000 in a generally rural region naturally has a high
centrality; the importance of Münster is emphasized
because it is home of Germany’s third largest university
with ca. 45.000 students, a local technical college (Fach-
hochschule) with ca. 14.000 students, twelve high
schools (Gymnasien) and a wide variety of private and
public technical schools as well as a catholic university.
The city's economy is largely focused on the
tertiary sector (mainly education, administration,
financial institutions, insurances); the university is the
largest employer.
Only two major industrial corporations (both
chemical industry) are located in Münster: „BASF Lak-
ke und Farben“ and „Armstrong World Industries“.
Due to the city's rural location and agricultural
tradition, the primary sector still is of higher importance
than the industry, and farmer organizations have strong
political influence in the area, although the fraction of
the population working in the primary sector is not
significantly higher than elsewhere in Germany.
Münster’s population is generally well-educated,
income and living standards are above the German
average.

Given this background, the hypothesis was that the

necessity for stricter environmental policies would be

109
of higher acceptability in Münster than it generally is in
other parts of the country.

Ill. no. III.1: Map of the Münsterland and Westphalia

III.3.3: Climate and Energy

Research in Münster
In Münster33 , the fields of environmental as well
as climate and energy research with local and regional
as well as global relevance is relatively well developed.
The University’s Center for Environmental Research

110
(Zentrum für Umweltforschung, „ZUFO“) holds annual
symposia. The last three focused on „Environmental
Policy in Europe“ (1998), „Global Environmental
Change (1996) and „Energy and Environment -
Strategies for Sustainable Development“ (1997). In
addition to the activities of the ZUFO, the University’s
institutes for geography and geo-ecology host two
working groups that are particularly concerned with the
energy/climate field: the „Abteilung Klima und Ener-
gie“ under Prof. Dr. Wilfrid Bach and the „Internationa-
les Wirtschaftsforum für Regenerative Energie“ or
„IWR“ (International Economic Forum for Regenerative
Energy). Prof. Bach was member of the EK I and
involved in many climate change related research
programmes around the world, and the Geographical Insti-
tute has been a major research center for climate
modeling and climate impact research as well as
promoting regenerative energy in NRW for many years
(Werner, 1991; Bach, 1991).
Prof. Manfred Lange from Münster’s Institute for
Geophysics is active in climate impact research. He
serves as head of the EU Barents Sea Impact Study (BA-
SIS).

Other university institutions that are directly or

indirectly involved with related issues are the „Institut
für Umwelt- und Planungsrecht“ (Institute for environ-
mental and planning law) under Prof. Dieter Jarass and
the „Institut für Politikwissenschaft“ (institute for
political science). The latter offers a new study emphasis
in environmental policies (Umweltpolitik - Wittkämper,
1998)34 .

111
 In 1991 the „Advisory Council for Climate and
Energy“ (Beirat für Klima und Energie) was established
in Münster. It consisted of six eminent scientists and
had a function very similar to that of the federal
„Enquête“ commission (see above).
The main task was to critically assess the current
standing of climate relevant emissions in Münster,
develop reduction scenarios and to identify concrete
steps towards a more sustainable energy-future. The
latter was defined as reaching the minimum goal of a
25% reduction of CO2 set by the EK II. The „Klima-
bündnis deutscher Städte“ (climate alliance of German
towns), of which Münster is a member, demands the far
more ambitious goal of 50% reduction until 2010 (Gertis
et al, 1995).

According to the assessment of the advisory

council, the city of Münster had an overall energy
consumption of 9092 GWh in the year 1990, 41 percent
of which were used for heating (households and
commercial/industry/administration), 3% for industrial
process heat, 29% for light and electricity and 26% for
the transportation sector (Stadtwerke Münster, 1993;
Bach, 1994/1996). The distribution of the actual CO2
emission of 2,3 million tons in 1990 is shown in the
following graph (after Bach, 1996; Weik/Gertis, 1995;
Deiters/Schallaböck, 1995):

112
 Ill. no. III.2 (after Bach and Lechtenböhmer, 96)

It must be noted here, that according to Bach (1996) the

29% of the traffic sector neither include air traffic
originating at Münster’s international airport, nor are
road and rail based cargo transportation, agricultural
traffic and passenger railroad traffic included. It could
not be determined, whether Autobahn transits on the A
1 and A 43 were considered. Regional commuting traffic
was taken into account (Umweltamt Münster, 1997).
Contributions of the agricultural sector (in addition to
traffic) also are ignored.

113
III.3.4: Climate and Energy Policies
in Münster
As mentioned before, in Germany most laws re-
levant for energy and therefore climate are federal laws.
These include building codes (insulation), emission
limits for heating systems, taxation of primary energy,
traffic regulations and the “Energieeinspeisungsgesetz”,
which regulates the guaranteed prices for privately
produced electricity. All these leave the local authorities
on „Länder“ and community level with rather limited
possibilities, but these possibilities still open a theoretical
potential of almost 24% CO2 reduction until 2005, based
upon 1987 values (for Münster, according to Bach,
1996).
The city council of Münster had planned to base
their energy policies on the recommendations of the
„advisory council energy and climate“. A coordination
office for climate and energy (Koordinierungsstelle Kli-
ma und Energie or „KLENKO“), and an Agenda 21
office were installed to coordinate the work between
relevant departments of the city administration, local
environmental NGOs, businesses, researchers, the
federal government and the general public.

The advisory council has determined the

following theoretical reduction potentials for CO2
emissions in different sectors (after Bach, 1996, with
data from Weik/Gertis, 1995; Bach, 1995; Klopfer, 1995;
Deiters/Schallaböck, 1995):

114
 1990 Reduction potential
until 2005
Field kt kt %a %b
Housing (insulation, heating, solar energy) 620 -185 -29,8 -8,0
Electricity in tertiary sector (reduction and
substitution) 322 -253 20,5 -11,0
Power transformation (coal substitution,
heat/power coupling, district heating etc.) 701 -253 -36,1 -11,0
Traffic sector (reduction/substitution) 658 -36 -5,5 -1,6

total 2301 -540 -23,5

Table no. III.1 (after Bach, 1996)

Cities in Germany do not have the authority to

enforce energy related CO2 reduction measures - they
can merely encourage them. Realizing this, the city of
Münster concentrates on different ways to encourage
industry and population to save energy and develop a
more „energy friendly“ and sustainable behaviour. The
city is engaged in public environmental ethics education
(saving energy means „doing the right thing“ and also
results in financial advantages) and at the same time
began to offer financial support in the form of direct
funding or local tax reduction for renewable energy
projects, insulation of old buildings and free energy
consulting for new buildings (Bach, 1996; Specht/Wildt/
Umweltamt Münster, 1997).
Substantial efforts were undertaken to increase the
acceptance of public transportation - these included
dramatically increased parking fees and reduced parking
spaces in the city, higher bus frequency and the
mandatory purchase of semester-tickets for public
transportation by all students (intended to reduce the
number of students commuting into town by car).

115
 The advisory council climate and energy has
stressed the fact, that the climate problem and other en-
vironmental problems practically touch every aspect of
human life (Weik, 1995) and therefore isolated
technological and sectorial approaches can never be a
final solution. As a result, the city began to develop a
local Agenda 21 plan following the recommendations
of the UNCED ’92 conference.
The local Agenda 21 is supposed to „guarantee a
sustainable development for the city of Münster in the
21st century“ (Stadt Münster, 1998) and is planned to
be signed in 1999. In addition an advisory council for
„Globale Entwicklungszusammenarbeit“ (global
development cooperation) was formed to search for
possible joint implementations of environmentally
friendly policies and projects with cities around the
world. One office clerk was employed to coordinate
these activities. The Agenda office itself opened in 1997.
Five employees from different sectors of the
administration „...now begin to organize the dialogue
with the citizens, following the directions of the city
council.“ (Agenda Büro Münster, 1998).

Münster joined the „International Council for

Local Environment Initiatives“ (ICLEI) and the „Klima-
bündnis“ (Climate Alliance). The latter results in the
city’s commitment to reduce local CO2 emissions by
50% until 2010 (Specht/Wildt, 1997).

The city council of Münster decided to undertake

an annual climate protection inventory (Klimaschutz-
inventur). The first inventory for the years 1990 to 1995
was published in 1997 (Umweltamt der Stadt Münster,
1997; KLENKO, 1997).

116
III.3.5: Effectivity Indicators for
Local Climate and Energy Policies
Since the beginning of environmental policy, an
ongoing dispute exists about how to assess its effectivity.
„Sustainability“ is the commonly agreed upon goal,
however, the definition of sustainability is not trivial, as
it once more became evident during the recent Sympo-
sium „Umwelt und Europa“ (Environment and Europe)
organized by the ZUFO center for environmental
research and held in Münster on June 15 and 16, 1998.

Philosophical and ideological disagreements as

well as scientific uncertainty lie at the heart of the
discussion, which in addition is very problematic due to
communication problems among experts from highly
diverse fields. Economists, social scientists, political
scientists, experts in international law and natural
scientists all have different approaches, different jargons
and express very different points of view. A general
agreement exists, that every economic activity affects
the environment (Loske, 1997) and that it will not be
possible to reduce environmental side-effects of human
activity to zero.
As lined out in the introduction, this is where the
common consensus ends. An ethical decision is
unavoidable to arrive at a solid definition of what can
be considered sustainable, and what cannot (Loske,
1997; Pfister/Renn, 1997), and therefore a framework
for the development of effectivity indicators for envi-
ronmental policies. The famous definition for
sustainability given by the UNCED’s „Brundtland
Commission“ (1987) is „...meet the needs of the present

117
without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs“.
Reddish and Sarre (1996:113) comment: „The
focus on needs has the strength that it puts the interests
of the less developed world high in its priorities...“, but
they criticize that the statement - as the entire report - is
mainly anthropocentric since „...Nature is regarded only
as a resource base to be used widely.“
Pfister and Renn (1997:7) wrote about the
„Brundtland“ definition: „The Sustainability postulate
therefore is oriented at the needs of humans. But why
should one want to give future generations the possibility
to meet their needs? Can this demand be derived from
objective realities?35 “ And „objective realities“ are
indeed the biggest problem. What are the „needs of future
generations“ in detail? How can the effects of our current
behaviour on the ability of future generations to meet
their needs be assessed in an objective and scientifically
sound fashion? Fact is, that this is not possible
(Schellnhuber, 1993), and the development of effectivity
indicators for environmental policies must include an
ethical decision. One example is the precautionary
principle, which is accepted as common sense in other
risk areas such as air traffic, nuclear power, the medical
field etc. (Lindsay, 1995).
What makes it difficult to apply the precautionary
principle to global environmental problems is the
„fuzziness“ of the whole field. It is currently impossible
to define for example global critical loads and levels for
CO2 emissions, as it is possible for other pollutants, such
as SO2 and NOx, and successfully applied in the 1979
UN ECE „Convention on Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution“ (Nagel, 1996). The „Critical Loads and
Levels“ concept demands scientifically justified upper

118
pollution limits that can be tolerated by given ecosystems
(Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen, 1994), which
is not applicable for CO2 on a global scale.

Another set of indicators is more concerned with

social and economic issues. An example for a crude
indicator (Sandbrook, 1996) is the number of citizens
using public transportation. In Münster, the number of
bus passengers increased by forty percent after the
mandatory semester ticket was introduced together with
other measures mentioned earlier (Stadt Münster, 1996).
This development was sold as a success of Münster’s
environmental policy, however, a closer analysis
revealed, that the majority of the new bus passengers
were students who previously used bicycles for
transportation - in fact more than twice as many bicycle
users changed to busses than car users (Gertis et al,
1995). Commuting traffic and the general density of car
traffic on the other hand had increased at the same time,
therefore the indicator „number of passengers using
public transportation“ by itself is invalid for an
assessment of CO2 reduction policies and measures.

The first useful indicator for the effectivity of local

energy and climate policy is the contribution of local
efforts to the global reduction of greenhouse gases.
A mere shifting of the CO2 emissions to different
geographic locations is no solution. Examples for this
would be decreased local energy and industrial
production but increased import (goods and/or energy).
Even if for example local coal power plants would be
closed, the contribution of a given area to the global
CO2 emission budget may still remain the same or
increase, if electricity then would be imported through
the European network.

119
 Another example is the replacement of fossil fuel
based energy systems with solar energy, without
considering the full energy balance. If a coal power plant
in a given region is replaced by photovoltaic systems,
the effect of local CO2 emission reduction can be quite
different from the global one, if the necessary equipment
was not produced in the region, since the energy that
was invested during the production process and therefore
the energy-pay-back time have to be taken into account.
Presentation of the global impact is often distorted
(Baccini/Bader, 1996). Overall contribution to global
CO 2 reduction therefore is the only satisfactory
effectivity indicator for local CO2 related climate policy.
The most convenient numerical indicator is a
comparison between the scientific recommendations (in
this case those of the federal scientific advisory council
global change/WBGU, the federal study commissions
EK I and EK II, the „Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgen-
forschung“, and locally the climate and energy council
of the city of Münster), political goals and the actual
performance.

Another useful means for assessing the effectivity

of local energy and climate policy is the allocation
pattern of subsidies for environmentally oriented
technology and technology development and a
comparison to other fields. If the policy stresses the
economic side, the pattern may reveal, that especially
high-cost solutions are supported (with little respect to
CO 2 reduction), whereas in the case of an
environmentally oriented policy it should be assumed,
that support of low-cost variants with high CO 2
reduction potentials is preferred.

120
 The following table shows the overall economic
cost for different approaches to CO2 reduction (in DM
per ton reduction)36 :

Ill. no. III.3 (from Meixner, 1996)

These values make it very clear, that the most

effective climate action plan would concentrate on low-
impact technology like combined heat-power plants,
support of wind power, reduction of electricity
consumption, low energy houses and additional ther-
mal use of solar energy. Saving electricity also is a very
attractive and economically sound way to reduce CO2
emissions.
Energy effective technologies already exist
(Lovins/Lovins, 1982-1998; Weizsäcker et al, 1994-
1997). It is mainly a matter of education and information
to increase their use.
The overall fraction of CO2 emissions in the city
of Münster that are caused by electricity consumption
in all fields is 27%, and even small changes of daily

121
behaviour (turning off stand-by appliances etc.) and
investing small amounts in very simple energy effective
technology (such as fluorescence light bulbs - „energy
saving lamps“) can result in an immediate reduction of
10 % and more in electricity consumption plus medium
term financial benefits (Thiesen/Thiesen-Sagra, 1997).
The effect is therefore considerable and justifies
continuing campaigns and education programmes
encouraging energy-aware behavior, as also demanded
by Bach (1996).
The importance of electricity consumption for the
future is enhanced by the fact that - especially in
commercial fields - it is closely connected to economic
growth and it rose by 37% in the sector „small
consumers“ (mostly commercial/tertiary sector) between
1980 and 1991 (Stadtwerke Münster, 1992; Bach, 1996).

There is little potential in Germany for increasing

the overall fraction of water power. In addition, the high
cost (both - in terms of money and in terms of energy)
and low efficiency practically disqualify current (1998)
solar-electric energy technology as a serious means for
an effective globally relevant CO2 reduction strategy in
central and northern Europe. At this stage larger
Photovoltaic projects should be seen as part of feasibility
studies and research to find ways to increase the
efficiency in the future (for example Weber, 1995).

122
IIII.4: Analysis

IIII.4.1: CO2 Reduction Scenarios

for Different Sectors - Two Case
Studies
The two individual sectors with the largest
contribution to CO2 emission in Münster are traffic
(29%/658kt) and household heating (27%/620 kt). These
sectors should therefore be a major focus of local
energy and CO2 reduction policies.

III.4.1.1: Reduction Possibilities and

Realities in the Sector „Housing and
Household Heating“
The advisory council „climate and energy“
developed detailed recommendations for CO2 reduction
strategies in the housing and building sector. These
recommendations took economic and environmental
aspects into account, developing a hierarchical set of
recommendations emphasizing cost/benefit aspects.
Recommendations that can be followed without any or
with little investments by the city have the highest
priority, followed by progressively more expensive
methods (Gertis et al, 1995).
It is possible to save energy without additional
costs. It is already decided on the level of communal
planning, whether a new residential area will be energy
saving or energy wasting. A proper north-south
orientation of the buildings can result in an additional

123
passive solar energy input of 30% during the heating
periods (compared to East-West orientation) of up to 6
kwh/m2. A consequent north-south orientation of all new
buildings alone therefore could lead to saving approx.
408.000 kwh/a, based upon a building rate of 1600 new
residential units per annum (Weik, 1993). In Münster a
value of 0,284 kg CO2 emitted for each thermal kw/h
was determined, so more than 116 t CO2 reduction per
annum could be achieved through proper planning of
building orientation with no additional costs. This
reduction accumulates every year as long as the strategy
is applied.
A second positive result is the more favorable
situation for using active solar energy since the average
usable solar radiation rises from ca. 600 kwh/a to 900
kwh/a (Weik, 1993).
The city council expects that 30% of the house
owners would install solar collectors with an average
size of 6 m2 and an efficiency of 35%, which is assumed
to result in an additional reduction of 43 t/a (all based
upon Weik et al, 1992 - 1995). According to the envi-
ronmental office of the city of Münster, „concrete steps
have been undertaken to implement this proposal“ in
the communal building planning. The city-owned
energy company (Stadtwerke Münster) also offers
financial support for the installation of solar heating
systems which is estimated to have an accumulating CO2
reduction potential of 180 t/a (Weik et al, 1995;
KLENKO, 1997).
The federal „Wärmeschutzverordnung“ or
„WSVO“ demands a mandatory „Wärmepaß“ (heat-
certification) for all new buildings. This certification is
required as proof that the overall energy efficiency
(heating system and insulation) complies with the new
stricter standards.

124
 The advisory council proposed an initiative to
introduce a communal heat certification for old
buildings. Here it is estimated that educational and
information campaigns will develop their own dynamic
and lead to a CO2 reduction of 100 to 5000 t/a (Beirat
für Klima und Energie, 1995), which is not a very clear
statement. The heat certification (Wärmepaß) was
introduced in 1997 and is available free of charge. It
forms a part of the city’s new „Förderprogramme Altbau-
sanierung“ (public financing for the improvement of old
buildings) with an energy focus (Pott et al, 1997).

Although communal authorities have no influence

on federal laws and regulations (such as the WSVO),
they can make certain demands and establish certain
codes for buildings on their own grounds. In Münster,
about 800 units are built on ground sold by the city each
year, which is 50% of the overall building activity. The
federal WSVO sets an upper limit for the heating needs
of new buildings of 100 kwh/m2a, whereas the city was
advised to set an upper limit of 50 kwh/m2a. This would
result in an additional accumulating CO2 emission
reduction of 772 t/a (estimated by Weik et al, 1995).
Also according to Weik (1995) due to organisational
problems the federal regulations of the WSVO were not
yet controlled or enforced in Münster. Enforcement of
existing regulations therefore could result in additional
reductions.

In 1996 the city decided to set the following

heating energy limits for new buildings to be built on
public ground: 65 kwh/m2a for single family homes (free
standing), 60 kwh/m2a for row-houses and 50 kwh/m2a
for condominiums/apartments. Compliance with these

125
regulations now is the prerequisite for purchasing public
ground (Umweltamt Münster, 1996).

The average heating need in Münster was assessed

as 200 kwh/m2a due to the large number of old buildings
with low insulation standards. According to Blohm and
Pietzner (1993) it is necessary to reduce this average
value by at least 50 kwh/m2a. In 1995 most of the
111.700 units were in need of improvement, which could
result in an annual CO2 emission reduction of roughly
143.000 t and would require a private and public
investment of DM 55 million per annum for a ten year
programme (Weik, 1995). The publicly supported
building improvement programme was initiated in 1997.
The city now supports between 5% and 15% of the costs
for new insulation (walls, windows) and new heating
systems. Heat-power coupling is not supported.

The advisory council stresses that the city has to

take action to improve the situation in public buildings,
where it is directly responsible. The reduction potential
is large since the situation is exceptionally bad. Many
schools for example are still heated with inefficient
electrical heating systems and generally public
2
buildings need far over 200 kwh/m a heating energy.
In the case of one model project - the „Kardinal von
Galen“ high school - it was possible to reduce the specific
heating need by over 50%, yet it still is far too high with
180 kwh/m2a. Weik et al (1995) estimate that a reduction
potential of 2000 t CO2/a could be achieved in public
schools alone, if the average specific heat need would
be reduced by merely 30 kwh/m2a.
The council recommends that all new buildings
should be planned according to the low energy standard

126
of 30 to 50 kwh/m2a and follow Swiss guidelines for
low electricity consumption.

Despite several phone calls, it was not possible

to determine whether any of these recommendations are
followed by the city’s „Hochbauamt“, the planning office
in charge of the relevant planning and execution.
According to the city, concrete guidelines are currently
„under consideration“ (Pott et al, 1997). City personnel
was reluctant to give any further information. Asked
about the cooperation between the Bauamt and the Agen-
da Office, Mr. Pott from the Bauamt (who held a talk
about the new heating certification during a symposium
last winter) merely revealed that „they are in the same
building“.

Additional recommendations of the advisory

council were (Weik/Gertis et al, 1995):

• A pilot project / feasibility study for a solar based

district heating system for a new settlement with 60
units was recommended. This was estimated to have
a CO2 reduction potential of approximately 100 t/a.
• It was suggested to cover the southern flank of the
now closed landfill „Coerde“ with a one MWpeak
photovoltaic power plant. This is estimated to result
in a CO2 reduction of up to 583 t/a. In addition it
was suggested that photovoltaic energy from private
producers should be „fully subsidized“ by the city.
The advisory council considers it desirable to
achieve that at least 30% of all households in the
city install photovoltaic systems. The scenario would
result in a DM 0,025 increase of averaged electricity
costs per kwh in the city area and could, according

127
 to Weik/Gertis et al (1995) and the KLENKO (1997),
result in a CO2 reduction of 8000 t/a. The annual
costs of these two recommendations would add up
to at least DM 1,5 million annually. Assuming a
lifetime of 20 years of an average PV system and an
energy pay-back time of 5 years, the CO2 reduction
costs using photovoltaic were calculated to be DM
3000/t (Weik, 1995), which should be considered a
lower limit since for example AC/DC conversion
losses were not taken into account(Weizsäcker,
1994; Weber, 1995; Thiesen, 1997).

According to Weik and Gertis (1995), following

all recommendations would result in a CO2 emission
reduction of 29% in the sector „housing and household
heating“ until 2005. It would be possible therefore to
meet the federal goal of 25% to 30% reduction, however,
based upon the assessment of the climate and energy
council, it is not even theoretically possible to meet the
50% emission reduction goal which the city subscribed
to as a member of the Klimabündnis (Climate Alliance)
until 2010. This is particularly important since according
to the advisory council the sector has the highest overall
reduction potential (Gertis et al, 1995; Bach, 1996).

A 1997 assessment revealed that the heat energy

consumption in the city of Münster sank by 2,3%,
compared to the value of 1990 (KLENKO, 1997).
Although this positive development in part may be a
result of stricter building codes and various city initiati-
ves, the number is too small to be conclusive. Since 1990,
economic growth declined, unemployment is high, in
other words: Germany is in a recession. In addition, over
20% of the population of Münster are students.

128
 Government student loans were dramatically cut
back in the period between 1990 and 1995. In 1990 80%
of all university students were supported by government
loans, compared to 13,5% in 1997 (dpa, 1997).
Unemployment and financial insecurity therefore may
well be reasons for more cost conscious behavior of
Germany’s - and therefore Münster’s - population, which
may have led to lower household-related energy
consumption. The mild winters of 1994/95 and 1995/96
also have to be considered. But even if the 2,3% emission
reduction in this sector are a continuing trend, it will not
bring the city of Münster close to the minimum federal
reduction goal of 25%.

The city’s decision to subsidize photovoltaic

installations is questionable since it causes high costs
with little effect for CO2 reduction. In his response to
the Internet poll Dr. Kiese, academic director of the Insti-
tute for Geo Ecology confirmed this assessment and
stressed that „The wrong areas are subsidized“. The
money would be better invested in small heat-power
coupling systems (Blockheizkraftwerke) since the CO2
reduction per money unit is at least 15 times higher
(Weizsäcker, 1992; Meixner, 1996).
The same is true, to a lesser extent, for the
support of building renovations and solar heating. This
may have to do something with economic interests: profit
of local companies in part flows back to the town in the
form of business taxes (Gewerbesteuer), increased
building activities reduce local unemployment and
therefore the social burden on the city etc., nothing of
which can be achieved with the support of small, easy
to install non-central heat power coupling units. It is not
clear, whether CO2 reduction is the only, or even the

129
main, goal of Münster’s „Climate and Energy“ policy
in the building and housing sector. Professor Weik (1998)
commented the difference between potential reduction
and reality as „sobering“.

III.4.1.2:Reduction Possibilities and

Realities in the Traffic Sector

III.4.1.2.1: The Real Situation

Münster is Germany’s „bicycle capital“ with a
larger number of bicycle-km/a per person than any other
town in the country (Stadt Münster, 1997). In addition
the town has a well developed public transportation
system. With a share of 29% of the overall emissions,
the traffic sector nevertheless is the largest single source
of CO2 emissions in Münster, and future projections
show that the traffic density will continue to show high
growth rates.
The share of 29% does not yet include commercial
street transportation (trucks), air transportation and
railroad cargo (Schallaböck, 1995). No concrete figures
are available yet, but Schumann (1995) estimates that
air traffic is responsible for up to 30% of traffic related
climate relevant emissions (including CO2, NOx, SO2),
and the Münster airport shows growth-rates of
approximately 8% per annum (Deiters/Schallaböck,
1995).
Despite more efficient engine technology, Fischer
(1995) estimates that emissions by air transportation

130
originating in Germany will triple until 2005, compared
to the base year 1987 (compare EK I, 1990). The same
will be the case for the Münster airport - especially since
it shows above average passenger growth rates. The air
traffic related CO2 emissions in Münster are estimated
to have risen from 40 kt CO2 in 1990 to 49,5 kt CO2 in
1994.
Street-based cargo transportation generally is
assumed to produce approximately 10% of all CO2
emissions from the transportation sector; growth rates
are known to be correlated with GNP growth rates,
population growth and other economic indicators. (EK
I, 1990; Deiters, 1995).

Clearly serious CO2 reduction strategies must

include far reaching measures in the traffic sector in order
to achieve any significant global reduction goals.

III.4.1.2.2: CO2 Reduction Strategies

in Münster’s Traffic Sector
The recommendations of the climate and energy
advisory council relating to traffic mainly focus on
possibilities to reduce the motorized individual traffic.
Although it is acknowledged that between 1990 and 1995
more than twice as many bicycle users than car users
changed to public transportation (Deiters, 1995), the
council recommends an offensive price policy of public
transportation, supported by restrictions for individual
car traffic (such as lower speed limits, narrower roads,
discontinued expansion of road system, reduction of

131
parking places, higher parking fees etc.) and continuing
support for bicycle traffic. Since 1/4 of all „mobility
activities“ take place in the city's center, the council
recommends a concept called „city of short ways“, which
would allow access to all public offices by walking or
bicycle.
Another 1/4 of all trips are from suburbs to the
city. The recommended strategy is to close the inner city
for private cars, so that commuters from suburbs would
be „encouraged“ to utilize public transportation
(Schallaböck, 1995).
In addition the attractiveness of the train system
for commuters should be enhanced (higher frequencies,
better regional connections), and a (currently not
existing) street car system is recommended for in-town
traffic (Deiters/Schallaböck, 1995). None of the latter
two recommendations are likely to be implemented.
The German Bundesbahn recently (1998)
announced a reduction of regional train service and a
future increase of ticket prices, and a street car system
for Münster would require a very large investment, the
resources for which are difficult to allocate (Mayr, 1991).

Calculations for the scenario „Offensive Public

Transportation Policy“ arrived at the following reduction
potentials:

If the number of bus users will rise by 50% until

the year 2000 and another 20% until 2005, the relative
share of individual motorized traffic of overall
transportation in Münster would sink from 37% to 34%,
that of public bus transportation would rise from 10%
to 18%. At the same time the share of bicycle traffic
would probably sink from 32% to 27%. According to

132
Schallaböck et al (1995), this would result in an
estimated CO2 reduction of 19 to 26 kt/a (with constant
population) or 13 to 21 kt/a (taking the expected
population growth of 4% until 2005 into account). In
this scenario, 1.125 additional bus users per day would
result in a CO2 reduction of merely 1t/a (Deiters/
Schallaböck, 1995). This reduction does not count the
additional emissions that result from building activities
(new bus-roads, new train stations etc.), nor that related
to the production of the additional busses and trains
necessary for the scenario. Almost 40% of a car’s total
energy balance is not related to direct engine exhaust
but to production, servicing, road building and
maintenance (Geiger et al, 1995).
Although the situation for busses certainly is
shifted towards the direct engine exhaust, the principle
is the same and must not be ignored and has to be
included in any global assessment (see also Baccini/
Bader, 1996).

Other recommendations include strengthening the

central functions of smaller towns in the Münsterland
in order to reduce the attractiveness of Münster and
therefore the number of ways to town (Deiters, 1995).
This is not likely to happen, since it also weakens
Münster’s economic base.
In addition, the climate and energy council again
suggests to continue information and education
campaigns with the goal to enhance the „Umweltbewußt-
sein“ (environmental awareness) of the public.
The city administration believes that this alone could
result in a traffic related CO2 emission reduction of 15%
(Deiters/Schallaböck, 1995; KLENKO, 1997).

133
 The 1997 KLENKO assessment arrived at an
overall emission reduction of the traffic sector of 0,3%
from 1990 to 1995. Although this reduction was already
considered to be a success for the city’s climate and
energy policy (KLENKO 1997), the following facts
should be considered:

• A reduction of 0,31% within five years is much too

low to indicate an ongoing trend; it could be the
result of fluctuations - also uncertainties of the
assessment could not be determined.

• The specific gasoline consumption of cars in

Germany shows a small but continuing decline
(Wuppertal Institut, 1996).

• Due to the economic situation (recession) and policy

change (cut student loans), households in Münster
have less money available and therefore will have a
tendency to travel less.

• The two traffic sectors with the highest growth rates

(cargo, air transportation) are ignored. Truck cargo
transportation in Germany showed an increase of
over 10% from 1994 to 1995 (Baratta et al, 1996).
Since Münster has no significant industrial
production, increased population and therefore
increased consumption is likely to directly result in
higher cargo traffic. The increase of CO2 emission
in the two excluded sectors alone certainly exceeds
the announced reduction several times (Wuppertal
Institut, 1996; Schallaböck, 1998).

134
• The city has zoned several residential areas outside
current suburbs, which will result in increased traffic
activity. This will neutralize in part the reduction
achieved by new buildings built in accordance with
low-energy guidelines (Bach, 1996).

The traffic sector shows the difficulties local

energy and climate policy has to face. The most effective
means - energy taxation and exhaust regulations for cars
(Steuern und Mengenregelungen) - are not available for
local authorities since they are under federal jurisdiction.
Punctual initiatives (such as the semester-ticket)
sometimes have undesirable side effects (bicycle users
changing to busses) and educational programmes are
counteracted by the marketing strategies of car
companies that result in an unbroken growth rate of car
sales in Germany (Baratta et al, 1996). The image of
„car equals freedom“ appears to be too strong to be
counter-acted by mere reason, and since the car industry
is Germany’s most important economic factor, there is
little political will on the federal level to do anything
against the interest of the industry.
It has to be remembered that even the traffic expert
in the federal study commission was a high official of
Daimler Benz (Hartenstein, 1996; Kordes, 1996). It is
not conceivable that any significant progress will be
made until 2005, and most likely the CO2 emissions of
the traffic sector in Münster, as elsewhere, will continue
to rise, especially if economic growth, population growth
and the growth rates of air transportation and cargo traffic
are taken into consideration.

135
III.4.2: Opinions as Qualitative
„Indicators“
Unfortunately it was not possible to get an
interview appointment with a representant of the
administration in Münster. Interview appointments were
postponed over and over again with the arguments of
„workload“ and „time restrictions“. One short interview
was possible with Mr. Heiner Pott from the City of
Münster’s „Bauamt“ during the Symposium „Energie
und Umwelt“ of the „Studenteninitiative Wirtschaft und
Umwelt“ in December 1997.
Formal interviews were all carried out with local
scientists, and answers to the internet poll also only came
from natural and social scientists. Interview details can
be found in the appendix.

As stressed by the publications of the Umwelt-

amt Münster (1997) as well as Bach (1996) and many
others, for effective climate protection measures it is
necessary that all major players as well as every citizen
cooperates. Bearing this in mind, it is disturbing that it
is already difficult to solicit mere opinions.
The scientific director of the Institute for Geo-
Ecology37 in Münster declared himself incompetent
and refused to make any statement, and the same was
the case with the director of the Institute for Environ-
mental Law (Prof. H.D. Jarass). An anonymous caller
of the latter institute who for unknown reasons refused
to reveal his name stated that „The Institute does not
have an official opinion regarding these issues and
answers questions about environmental law only“ (sic).

136
 It also was not possible to get a single clear
statement from any of the environmental organizations
in Münster. Nobody felt responsible, and repeatedly
merely the published work of the climate advisory
council and the KLENKO assessments were pointed out
and colorful brochures were offered.

Apparently a significant difference exists between

the opinions of social scientists and natural scientists.
Social scientists seem to have a more positive opinion
about the effectivity of environmental policies than
natural scientists38 . Social scientists tend to stress the
slow and cumbersome cultural processes, a cultural
inertia that has to be overcome. From this point of view,
the efforts in Münster (and generally in Germany) are
then considered to be successful, since the concepts of
„protecting nature“ and „doing something against the
greenhouse effect“ are now firmly rooted as positive
ideas in society, and first measurable changes can be
observed.
The natural scientists on the other hand, tended
to support the precautionary principle and stressed the
still unknown scale of the impact of climate change
(Hülster 39 and Lange 40 ). Generally the IPCC
recommendations were considered to be reasonable
(with the exception of Dr. Kiese41 , who called them
exaggerated).
Since all interview partners firmly believed that
neither the IPCC nor the local CO2 reduction goals can
even remotely be met, the natural scientists tended to
have an opinion that could be summarized as: „The
efforts in Münster are better than nothing, but they are
far from sufficient and far from being an objective
success“.

137
 Regarding the weaknesses of the official reports
(leaving out crucial sectors), Dr. Krämer stressed that
this is due to methodological reasons. Since road and
air transportation were not included in the 1990
assessment, they also could not be included in the 1997
assessment if comparability is to be assured. However,
in the interview with Prof. Lange, the question arose,
why the two sectors, of which it has been known for a
long time that they have high growth rates, were not
included from the beginning on.

During the short informal interview with Mr.

Heiner Pott from the Bauamt Münster, Mr. Pott admitted
that for example heat-power coupling for household
heating is not supported by the city’s renovation
programs. This is revealing since it would be the most
cost effective CO2 reduction possibility, but one with
little positive economic effect for the region.

138
III.5: Conclusion

III.5.1: Comparison of Effectivity

Indicators to Reduction Goals,
Achievements and Assessments in
Münster
The sincere efforts of the various researchers
involved with the „Climate and Energy Council“ of the
city of Münster have shown the complexity of the issue,
which indeed touches practically every aspect of mo-
dern life. This complexity makes an analysis very
difficult, and although the goal of the council was to
determine the contribution of Münster’s CO2 emissions
to the global budget (Gertis, 1995), some methodological
difficulties remain. Partly these are related to material
flows. For example: should the energy-related CO2
emissions resulting from production of goods that are
consumed in Münster but produced elsewhere be added
to the local Münster-budget?
Münster received the title „Climate Capital 97“
for 81 environmental projects (several of which were
not or only indirectly related to climate or energy) and
for the (compared to German average) low CO2 emission
per capita of 7,7t/a in 1995 (KLENKO, 1997). Since
Münster has little industry, it is very likely to show a
higher than average import of consumer products, which,
as mentioned above, also results in higher cargo traffic.
At least in part the low per capita emission is an illusion,
despite the fact that emissions related to electricity
obtained from other regions are taken into account
(Gertis et al, 1995)42 .
Another methodological problem is the failure to
include all sectors (or parts thereof). The emission details
139
and model projections for the two only large industrial
corporations were not published due to „Datenschutz“
(data protection) (Klopfer, 1998). Air traffic and cargo
traffic were not accounted for, and agriculture was
completely ignored, all this to assure a methodologically
consistent approach. Especially the agricultural
sector has numerous environmental impacts and it also
is energy intensive (production of fertilizer and other
agri-chemicals, heating of greenhouses in winter,
production of animal food, gas consumption of
agricultural vehicles and processing of products etc.).
According to the EK II (1992) the contribution of
land use change to the carbon budget is not relevant in
Germany. This also is controversial. Many
developing countries complain that they are being
blamed for massive deforestation on their territories,
although the same has happened in the industrialized
countries before. „The hypocrisy of the north is
paternalistic.“ (BBC TV interview, Pakkesem, 1996).
That deforestation in the Münsterland already
occurred one to two centuries ago does not change the
fact that the local CO 2 absorption capacity was
dramatically reduced, practically for all times. Although
an agricultural land area also has a certain carbon fixation
rate, it is between 20 to 100 times lower than that of
forested land (EK II, 1992).
It could be said that a deliberately deforested land
reduced its emission allowance (ECO Newsletter, 1998)
and therefore land use change due to agriculture has to
be included in the assessment. It can only be concluded
that it was ignored for political reasons. Lange, Hülster
and Krämer however all stressed that the topic of global
climate change already is complex enough and the
discussion of CO2 sinks leads to further complication
and additional loopholes.

140
III.5.2: Does Germany’s „Best
Effort“ Meet Expectations and
Objective Requirements?
Due to the complex nature and the scientific
uncertainty involved with the human impact of local
activities on global environmental change, an ethical
decision is necessary before requirements - in this case
the necessary CO2 emission reduction - can be defined.
Critics did not expect more due to „economic and socio-
political realities“ (Bach, 1996; Allnoch, 1997;
Greenpeace, 1997), and the political side has a tendency
to present every action as a success.

If the effectivity of climate and energy policies in

Münster is judged against the standard of the city’s own
proposals and commitments, the result is inconclusive -
at best. The per capita emission reduction averaged over
all sectors was published as 4,9%. After correcting this
value for the population growth, a total reduction of 3,2%
remains for the selected sectors only (KLENKO, 1997).
The same argument applies as for the individual
sectors that were assessed before: with all the
uncertainties involved in determining the actual emission
as well as economic and social fluctuations, changes of
the federal political framework and a rapidly changing
technology, the influence of local policies on this small
reduction is difficult to determine. Prof. Lange argued
that the values are too close to the federal tendency to
seperate the effect of local policies from general trends.
A longer timeline is necessary to clarify whether a real
local trend superimposed to the national one exists at

141
all, or whether the observed reduction is merely an
artifact resulting from background noise and the fact that
problematic sectors were not included.
Another problem is that the reduction
commitments of the city council were highly unrealistic.
The climate and energy council arrived at a theoretical
reduction potential of 24% until 2005, while - to say it
again - the federal goal is 25% to 30%, and Münster’s
own reduction commitment until 2010 is 50%. This
cannot be achieved without truly dramatic and costly
action. It should also be noted, that the trend of overall
CO2 emission in Germany has turned and rises again
since 1996 (Wuppertal Institut, 1998; interview with
Krämer, 1998).

III.5.3: Outlook to the Future

According for example to Bach (1996) and others, some
of the main obstacles for effective climate protection
initiatives and policies are:

• lack of information
• lack of motivation
• financial restrictions
• insufficient political framework
All of these factors are interconnected and affect
every level of society, from large corporations to
individual citizens. The example of Münster shows, that
the old strategy of „think globally, act locally“ has severe
limitations. Many of the most effective tools for envi-
ronmental policy, such as environmental taxation or
emission limits, are not controlled by local but by national

142
(federal government) or supranational (EU/EC)
authorities, which tend to act slowly and be prone to
lobbyism and conflicting political interests. Discussions
of adverse economic effects of environmental taxes by
far dominate the scene. In a world of economic
globalization the „Standortdiskussion“ gains immense
importance.
The economic scene is more and more dominated
by global players who simply place their production
facilities in the countries with the best conditions, which
means low labor costs, but also low environmental
standards and therefore better possibilities to externalize
environmental costs (Stahel, 1996). Publicly demanding
an energy tax in Germany - as recently proposed by the
Green party in the form of a „Aufkommensneutrale
Energiesteuer“ - was widely called „political suicide“
(Weizsäcker, 1998), although all political parties have
included the option of environmental taxation in their
long-term programmes.

The majority of the „general public“ appears to

be only interested in environmental questions if their
immediate well-being is potentially threatened (smog =
asthma, ozone-hole = skin cancer etc.) and tends to
expect immediate technological solutions. And despite
all criticism it must be acknowledged, that environmen-
tal policy in West-Germany has been effective in coping
with local problems of environmental quality43 .
However, since global change is not a pressing problem
for the population of Germany and other countries which
are the main contributors to global pollution and resource
destruction, public pressure in the field of global envi-
ronmental politics and policies - with the exception of
NGOs - currently is nearly non existent.

143
 Although in theory it is known what has to be
done, there are few reasons for optimism for the
proponents of the precautionary principle. We need a
„paradigm shift“ (Gruhl, 1987), better environmental and
scientific education of the public (Kaminski, 1997 and
many others). We need an „efficiency revolution“ (Weiz-
säcker/Lovins/Lovins, 1994-96), we „...have to act now“
(Kohl, 1992 and many others), but even in Germany far
too little has been achieved.

If sustainability really is accepted as a guideline

for human economic and social behaviour, minor
alterations of the existing socio-economic system may
prove to be highly inefficient in a world of ever
increasing population where ongoing GDP growth
continues to be the absolute priority.
The thought most terrifying for conservative
politicians might then become a necessity if a global
collapse is to be avoided: a different form of society
and economy, a different form of „global change“ (Alt-
vater, 1992; Simonis, 1994).
Current local and global environmental activities
surely are better than nothing, but they can only be
considered to be humble first steps. They will remain
far from sufficient as long as a world of six billion tries
to achieve the post-industrialist lifestyle of the rich élite
in the „developed“ world, who themselves are not willing
to compromise their material welfare (see also Meadows
et al, 1993). It is likely that environmental policies of
the future will more and more become policies of
reaction instead of prevention, having to cope with the
change that was not avoided.

144
 Germany is considered to be a world leader in
climate protection. The results of this overview indicate,
that the best local effort of this leading country is not
likely to even meet its minimal goals. Professor
Schallaböck’s latest assessment (August 1998) of the
contribution of the airport to the CO2 emissions in Mün-
ster, for example concludes that the emissions from
increased air traffic alone easily eradicate the effects of
all other climate protection efforts combined.

The chances for a serious implementation of

globally effective preventive climate protection policies
appear to be low, especially since right wing purely profit
oriented organizations utilize the bad information
standard of the public for a very successful anti-envi-
ronmental campaign on a global scale.
To mention only one example: the World Climate
Report, a „scientific“ report that basically claims man
made global climate change is non-existent, is paid for
by the Western Fuels Corporation, an organization of
coal producers and purchasers. The editor, one Dr.
Patrick Michaels, regularly visited the editorial boards
of newspapers and spoke to state legislators. These trips
were paid for by large electric utilities.
There are many other similar examples. The „wise
use“ movement in the US fights environmental laws that
would restrict the commercial use of wetlands, forests
and other natural resources. This is a cleverly disguised
conglomeration of seemingly unconnected and indepen-
dent groups, however, a closer examination reveals that
they are supported by American national direct mail
experts with close connection to mining, forestry and
ranching interests (Barry, 1997).

145
 The „Columbia Journalism Review“ reveals that
„such organizations (...) are most likely to be financed
by land developers and industry trade groups, and they
sometimes adopt green-sounding names such as the
National Wetland Coalition, which in fact mainly
consists of natural gas companies, oil drillers and land
developers."

"The general public cannot distinguish between a

real scientific statement and a mock statement that comes
from a fake industry organization claiming to be a real
institute. The public has a tendency to believe the more
positive statements, and the industry propaganda is as
simple as it is simply wrong:

• Environmental protection costs money and jobs

since it is dangerous for the industry.

• The state of the global environment has never been

better than now and the environmental protection
standards have risen constantly.
Messages like these lead simple minded people
to think that environmental protection is something that
is not necessary anymore, which is a fatal mistake. The
same science that is trusted in all other fields is widely
ignored and even ridiculed when it comes to the global
collapse we eventually face.

There was a song by Sting, called „Russians“,

which was quite a hit on the height of the cold war, when
the world faced a potential nuclear annihilation. The most
important line was „I hope the Russians love their
children too“. The question now mus be: what about the
CEOs who are in control of the globalized industry? Do

146
they seem to care about their children? About your
children? Do they seem to care about anything aside
from shareholder values?

Appendix

Ill. no. III.4: Energy Consumption in East Germany (source:

IWR Münster):

Ill. no. III.5: Energy Consumption in West Germany (source:

IWR Münster):

Ill no. III.6: Total Energy Consumption in Germany

(source:IWR Münster):

147
„Climate Interviews“ the main statements in short:

Dr. Olaf Kiese, climatologist and geographer,

Academic Director of the Institute for Geo-Ecology in
Münster (written response to Internet poll):

• It is possible that the officially achieved emission

reduction represents the real value, even if
insecurities are taken into account.
• A trend cannot be assumed, based upon the low
numbers and short time period.
• The reduction achieved so far is not only
a side effect of economic fluctuations.
• Münster’s reduction goals will not be reached
(quote: „Auf keinen Fall“ - „in no case“).
• Resistance begins to form in the administration,
industry, commerce and population.
• Although there still is interest in global environmen-
tal problems among the population, this interest
stagnates.
• The IPCC and German Study Commission (EK)
recommendations for emission reduction are
exaggerated.
• The influence of local policies on global emission
reduction is relatively low.
• The government supports the wrong projects.
• IPCC and EK recommendations will not be met.

Prof. Dr. Manfred Lange, climate impact

researcher at the Geophysical Institute in Münster and
head of the EU BASIS (Barents Sea Impact Study)
project (45 minutes interview):
• Climate policy in Münster is indeed taken seriously.

148
• High goals are necessary.
• The precautionary principle is an absolute MUST.
• The IPCC recommendations are reasonable.
• The achievement in Münster is not much different
from Germany in general, but the situation in
Germany is far better than in many other countries.
• Although the reduction trend will continue, it will
be completely impossible to meet the reduction goals
set by the city council, and probably not even the
federal goals.

Prof. Lange questioned the validity of the title

„Climate Capital“ by asking who awarded the price (the
awarding „Klimabündnis“ is an alliance of several
German cities - the word „self awarded prize“ was in
the air). He insisted however, that environmental
protection has to take place on all levels in order to arrive
at any results at all.

Dr. Klaus Krämer, sociologist and CEO of the

Center for Environmental Research (Zentrum für Um-
weltforschung) in Münster (90 minutes interview,
together with Dr. Hülster):

• Complex social and cultural situation has to be

considered.
• Natural scientists tend to underestimate cultural
inertia.
• Problem is mainly socio-cultural and not technical.
• Statements of politicians about the issue are not
reliable.
• Achievements so far can nevertheless be considered
a success.
• Precautionary principle should only be applied if

149
 majority so whishes and more knowledge becomes
available.
• General population in Münster can be considered
„environmentally aware.“
• Economic situation has little or no influence on en-
vironmental awareness.
• Discussion about sinks and historical land-use
change is useless, complicated and untangible.
• It is not likely that IPCC or local goals will be met.
• Current reductions are too low to derive future trend.

Dr. Krämer stressed the honesty of the advisory

council report.

Dr. Anke Hülster, agronomist, Scientific

Director of the Center for Environmental Research
(ZUFO) in Münster (90 minutes interview together with
Dr. Krämer, see above):

• Precautionary principle is common sense, and must

be applied like elsewhere in society, technology and
science.
• Economic situation may have influence on „envi-
ronmental awareness; if other problems dominate,
environmental concern is easily forgotten.
• Generally environmental education of population is
not sufficient; Dr. Hülster agrees that the average
citizen for example often cannot distinguish between
„Ozone hole“ and „Ozone pollution“.
• Achievements in Münster cannot be considered a
success if compared to goals.
• Discussion about sinks and historical land-use
change is not useful due to scientific uncertainty and
complexity.

150
• IPCC and local reduction goals will under no
circumstances be met.

Dr. Manfred Stock, deputy director of the „Pots-

dam Institute for Climate Impact Research (response to
Internet poll):

• A part of the CO2 emission reduction in the building

sector is due to the fact that Münster’s standard in
this sector was substantially below federal average.
• Consumption and transportation are not completely
included in the assessments.
• It will not be possible to reach the reduction goals
(quote: „Das Ziel...erscheint arg ehrgeizig“).

Otherwise Dr. Stock points out literature.

Prof. Dr. Friedrich O. Beese, Member of the

Federal Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
and Director of the Institute for Soil Science in Göttin-
gen (informal interview during the 1998 ZUFO Sum-
mer Symposium „Umwelt und Europa“):

Like Dr. Krämer, Dr. Beese stressed that if the

difficulties and obstacles involved in global and local
environmental policies are considered, every small
achievement already is a success. He suggested a
pragmatic and optimistic approach since scientific
uncertainty also could mean that „everything is not as
bad as it seems“. In his opinion, Germany and Münster
are faring well, although he admits that the criteria for
„success“ in this case are quite debatable.

151
 Dr. Ana Calvo Sastre, Dept. of Educational
Sciences, University of the Balear Islands (informal
interview during 1998 ZUFO Summer Symposium
„Umwelt und Europa“ in Münster):

Dr. Sastre specializes in environmental education,

and in her opinion the German population has one of
the highest standards of environmental education and
awareness in Europe, but generally only a small fraction
knows something about the details. She also commented
that environmental problems do not have a very high
priority, especially in economically difficult times.

The Agenda 21 office did not respond at all. One

of the questions sent to the Agenda office referred to the
form of cooperation between the city’s Umweltamt (en-
vironmental office), the Agenda office and other parts
of the administration. The interview-request was passed
on to the Umweltamt which explained that:

1) They cannot answer any questions as long as they do

not know what the answers will be used for.

2) Due to time restrictions they will not be able to make

an interview appointment in the near future.

The „Amt für Grünflächen und Naturschutz“ (Of-

fice for Green Areas and Nature Protection) did not react.

Among the environmental non governmental

organizations with whom it was neither possible to get
an interview appointment nor did they respond to the
Internet poll were: Umweltforum Münster, Greenpeace
Münster, Naturschutzbund Münster.

152
 Prof. Ott and Prof. Schallaböck from the Wup-
pertal Institut sent their latest and very helpful papers
on climate policy research without further comment; no
reaction however to interview request or email poll.

Prof. Dr. Wilfried Bach, Director of the Cimate

and Energy working group the the Institute for
Geo-Ecology Münster, former member of the federal
study comission and the advisory council in Münster,
did not respond to interview requests.

Prof. Dr. Julius Werner, geophysicist and alter-

native energy expert at the Institute for Geoecology
Münster, did not respond.
Dr. Norbert Allnoch, director of the „Internatio-
nales Wirtschaftsforum Regenerative Energien“, did not
react.

The original interview questions (translation below):

Für die Universität London arbeite ich derzeit an

einem Bericht über die Effektivität lokaler Klima-
schutzmaßnahmen. Hierbei ist einzig und allein die
REALE Verminderung der Emissionen von Treibhaus-
gasen in der globalen Betrachtung maßgebend (im Ge-
gensatz etwa zur Verlagerung von Produktionsstätten
etc., wodurch lokale Bilanzen ohne globalen Nutzen
geschönt werden). Als Beispiel für Deutschland dient
die Stadt Münster. Sie erhielt 1997 den Titel „Klima-

153
hauptstadt Deutschlands“, ist demnach also Deutsch-
lands beste Bemühung in Sachen Klimaschutz, Energie-
sparen und CO2 Verminderung.

Im Bericht der Klimainventur der Stadt Münster

von 1997 wird eine Reduzierung des CO2 Ausstoßes
der Stadt von 3,2% ausgewiesen.

Im Zusammenhang damit möchte ich Sie um Ihre

Meinung zu folgenden Fragen bitten. Da der Bericht
unter großem Zeitdruck angefertigt wird, wäre ich Ih-
nen für eine schnelle Antwort sehr dankbar.

• Halten Sie diese Zahl für realistisch, angesichts der

Tatsache, daß straßengebundener Güterverkehr und
Flugverkehr (beide weisen hohe Wachstumsraten
auf), sowie Landwirtschaft (inklusive Land-
nutzungsänderung und damit verbundene Zerstö-
rung von CO2 Senken in der Vergangenheit) und
auch produktions- und transportbezogene Emissio-
nen durch außerhalb Münsters hergestellte Konsum-
güter, nicht in die Bilanz eingegangen sind?

• Ist es Ihrer Ansicht nach gerechtfertigt, auf der Ba-

sis einer Reduzierung von lediglich 3,2% innerhalb
von fünf Jahren bereits einen Trend bis zum Jahre
2010 fortzuschreiben?

• Halten Sie es für möglich, daß der ermittelte Rück-

gang der Emissionen im wesentlichen eine Begleit-
erscheinung ökonomischer Fluktuationen ist (Mün-
sters Studenten etwa müssen sparen aufgrund mas-
siv zurückgegangener BAFÖG Förderungen, die
Haushalte verfügen allgemein über weniger Geld
etc.)?

154
• Wie sehen Sie REALISTISCH die Chancen lokaler
Klimapolitik bei wenig ausgeprägten Maßnahmen
auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene?

• Münster hat sich durch die Mitgliedschaft im Klima-

bündnis zu einer 50% Reduzierung der CO2 Emis-
sionen bis zum Jahre 2010 verpflichtet. Sind Sie der
Ansicht, daß dieses Ziel bei steigendem Wirtschafts-
wachstum sowie zunehmender Bevölkerung erreicht
werden kann, vor allem, wenn die oben genannten
in der Bilanz bisher ausgelassenen Faktoren mit ein-
bezogen werden?

• Wie ausgeprägt ist Ihrer Erfahrung nach die Zusam-

menarbeit zwischen den Beteiligten (öffentliche
Verwaltung, Industrie, Gewerbe, Bevölkerung)?

• Sind globale Umweltprobleme für die MEHRHEIT

der Bevölkerung überhaupt von Interesse?

• Für wie wichtig halten Sie die Einhaltung der IPCC

und EK Vorgaben?

• Wie groß ist Ihrer Einschätzung nach der grobe

Anteil lokaler politischer Maßnahmen an der
Gesamtreduzierung der globalen Treibhausgase-
missionen?

• Gehen die bisherigen lokalen und nationalen Schritte

in der Bundesrepublik Ihrer Ansicht nach weit ge-
nug?

• Werden Ihrer Meinung nach die IPCC Reduktions-

vorgaben für die OECD Länder erreicht? Ist dies

155
 unter den gegebenen globalen politischen und wirt-
schaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen überhaupt mög-
lich?

English translation of interview questions:

Climate Interview

Only the real reduction of greenhouse gas

emissions in the global view is relevant (as opposed to for
example the relocation of production facilities etc., which
would result in polished local balances without global
benefit). Münster will serve as an example for Germany.
The city received the title „Climate Capital of Germany“,
therefore it represents Germany’s best effort in the fields
of climate protection, energy saving and CO2 reduction.

The report of the city of Münster Climate Inventory 1997

states a reduction of CO2 emissions of the town of 3.2%
between 1990 and 1995.

Connected to this I would like to ask you, as a

local scientist, for your opinion regarding the following
questions (...)

• Do you consider this number realistic, bearing in

mind the fact that road-bound cargo traffic and air
traffic (both show high growth rates) as well as
agriculture (including land use changes and the
connected destruction of CO2 sinks in the past) and
also production and transport related emissions
caused by consumer goods produced outside of
Münster all did not enter the balance?

156
• Do you think it is justified to claim an ongoing trend
until the year 2010 based upon the reduction of
merely 3.2% within five years?

• Do you consider it possible that the determined

reduction of the emissions is mainly an effect related
to economic fluctuations (Münster’s students have
to save due to cut student loans, the households
generally have less money available etc.)?

• How do you REALISTICALLY assess the chances

of local climate policy as long as measures on the
national and international level remain weak?

• Through its membership in the Climate Alliance,

Münster agreed to reduce the city’s CO2 emissions
by 50% until 2010. Do you think that this goal can
be reached, considering ongoing population and
economic growth, especially if the above factors are
taken into account?

• How well-developed is the cooperation between the

involved parties (public administration, industry,
commerce, population)?

• Is the MAJORITY of the population interested in

global environmental problems at all?

• How important do you think is it to meet the IPCC

and EK recommendations?

• How large do you roughly estimate is the share of

local climate policy measures compared to the
overall reduction of global greenhouse emissions?

157
• In your opinion, do the current local and national
steps in the Federal Republic go far enough?

• Do you think that the IPCC reduction

recommendations for the OECD countries will be
met? Is this possible at all in the real existing global
political and economic framework?

Sources and Bibliography:

Allaby, A. and Allaby, M.: Oxford Concise Dictionary

of Earth Sciences, Oxford University Press, Oxford,
1996.

Altvater, E.: Der Preis des Wohlstandes, oder Umwelt-

plünderung und neue Welt(un)ordnung, Verlag Westfä-
lisches Dampfboot, Münster, 1996.

Allnoch, N.: Zur Situation der Wind- und Solarenergie-

nutzung in Deutschland, contributed talk, Symposium
Energie und Umwelt - Strategien einer nachhaltigen
Entwicklung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Münster,
1997.

Axt, P., Höfer, T. and Vestner, K. (ed.): Ökologische

Gesellschaftsvisionen - Kritische Gedanken am Ende des
Jahrtausends, Birkhäuser, Berlin, 1996.

Baccini, P. and Bader, H.P.: Regionaler Stoffhaushalt,

Erfassung, Bewertung und Steuerung, Spektrum Aka-
demischer Verlag, Heidelberg, 1996.

Bach, S.: Ökologische Steuerreform - Eckpfeiler einer

umweltverträglichen Energiepolitik, contributed talk,

158
Symposium Energie und Umwelt - Strategien einer nach-
haltigen Entwicklung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung,
Münster, 1997.

Bach, W.: Klimaschutz - Von vagen Absichtserkärungen

zu konkreten Handlungen, Verlag C.F. Müller, Bonn,
1991.
Bach, W. and Jain, A.: Vom drohenden Klimainfarkt zur
Klimastabilisierung - Wie der zusätzliche Treibhausef-
fekt noch eingedämmt und zu starke Klimaänderungen
vermieden werden können, interner Bericht für
Greenpeace Deutschland, Abteilung für Klima- und
Energieforschung des Geographischen Institutes, Mün-
ster, 1990.

Baratta, M.v. (ed.): Der Fischer Weltalmanach, Fischer,

Frankfurt am Main, 1996.

Bailey, R.: Warum die Welt nicht untergeht, Reader’s

Digest, no. 3, Stuttgart, 1998.

Bayertz, K.O.: Globale Umweltveränderungen und die

grenzen der ökologischen Moral, contributed talk, Sym-
posium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für
Umweltforschung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Bauerschmidt, R.: Liberalisierung der Energiemärkte -

Umwelt- und energiewirtschaftliche Perspektiven,
contributed talk, Symposium Energie und Umwelt - Stra-
tegien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung, Zentrum für
Umweltforschung, Münster, 1997.

Beckmann, L. (ed.): Sparen beim Heizen, Stiftung Wa-

rentest Sonderheft Energie, Stiftung Warentest, Berlin,
1992.

159
Beese, F.O.: Bedeutung und Zustand der Wälder in ge-
mäßigten und in borealen Klimazonen, contributed talk,
Symposium Umwelt und Europa, Zentrum für Umwelt-
forschung, Münster, 1998.
Beste, D.: Dossier: Klima und Energie, Spektrum der
Wissenschaft, Heidelberg, 1996.

Bieber, H.: Wahrheit und Wahrnehmung - Die Kluft zwi-

schen wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnis und publizistischer
Vermarktung, contributed talk, Symposium „Globale
Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung,
Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Binswanger, H.C.: Geld und Natur: Das wirtschaftli-

che Wachstum im Spannungsfeld zwischen Ökonomie
und Ökologie, Edition Weitbrecht, Wien, 1991.

Blackmore, R. and Reddish, A.: Global Environmental

Issues; Hodder and Stoughton, London, 1996.

Blunden, J. and Reddish, A.: Energy, Resources and

Environment, 2nd Edition, Hodder & Stoughton, Lon-
don, 1996.

Bohne, E.: Liberalisierung der Energiemärkte - Rechts-

und Verwaltungswissenschaftliche Perspektiven,
contributed talk, Symposium Energie und Umwelt - Stra-
tegien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung, Zentrum für Um-
weltforschung, Münster, 1997.

Bonus, H: Energiesteuer oder Umwelt-Zertifikate?,

Spektrum der Wissenschaft, No. 8, 1998.

160
Borsbach, W.: Aktuelle Begriffe: Energie, Thomae,
Gütersloh, 1998.

Brauch, H.G. (ed.): KLIMAPOLITIK - Naturwissen-

schaftliche Grundlagen, internationale Regimebildung
und Konflikte, ökonomische Analysen sowie nationale
Problemerkennung und Politikumsetzung, Springer,
Berlin, 1996.

Bretz, R. and Frankhauser, P.: Screening LCA for Large

Numbers of Products: Estimation Tools to Fill data
Gaps, The International Journal of Life Cycle
Assessment, Vol. 1, No. 3, ecomed, 1996.

Bringezu, S.: Technisch-stoffliche Faktoren: Stoffstrom-

analyse der industriellen Produktion, contributed talk,
Symposium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum
für Umweltforschung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Brown, L.R. et al: Zur Lage der Welt - 1992, Daten für
das Überleben unseres Planeten, Worldwatch Institute
Report, Fischer Taschenbuch Verlag, Frankfurt am Main,
1992.

Brown, L.R. et al: Zur Lage der Welt 1994, Daten für
das Überleben unseres Planeten, Worldwatch Institute
Report, Fischer Taschenbuch Verlag, Frankfurt am main,
1994.

Brown, M. and May, J.: Die Greenpeace Story,

Interbook, Hamburg, 1989.

Bunge, T.: Umweltnutzung und Verteilungskonflikte aus

juristischer Sicht am Beispiel der Ozonschicht,

161
contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.

Clement, W.: Energiepolitik in Nordrhein-Westfalen,

Wirtschaftsministerium des Landes Nordrhein-Westfa-
len, Düsseldorf, 1997

Conrad, R.: Aktuelle Begriffe: Ökologie, Thomae,

Gütersloh, 1990.

Cronenberg, M.: Das neue Energiewirtschaftsrecht,

Recht der Energiewirtschaft, No. 3, Carl Heymanns
Verlag, Köln, 1998.

Cubasch, U.: Klimamodelle und Klimasimulationen,

contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.

Deggin, D. and Stapper, B.: Technische Möglichkeiten

zur Minimierung von CO2-Emissionen, contributed talk,
Symposium Energie und Umwelt - Strategien einer nach-
haltigen Entwicklung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung,
Münster, 1997.

Doppler, W.: Landwirtschaftliche Nutzungssysteme,

Degradation und Bodenbildung, contributed talk, Sym-
posium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für
Umweltforschung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996

Earle, S.: Sea Change - a Message of the Oceans,

Fawcett Columbine, New York, 1995.
ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really
Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #1, Kyoto, 1997

162
ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really
Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #2, Kyoto, 1997

ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really

Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #3, Kyoto, 1997

ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really

Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #4, Kyoto, 1997

ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really

Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #5, Kyoto, 1997

ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really

Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #6, Kyoto, 1997

ECO Newsletter: COP 3 - KYOTO - What Really

Happened, NGO NEWSLETTER, Issue #7, Kyoto, 1997
Feyerabend, P.: Wider den Methodenzwang, suhrkamp
wissenschaft, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main, 1995.

Feyerabend, P.: Wissenschaft als Kunst, edition

suhrkamp, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main, 1984.

Friedrich, C.: Die Wende zur nachhaltigen Energiewirt-

schaft ist die Grundbedingung für den Klimaschutz,
contributed talk, Symposium Energie und Umwelt - Stra-
tegien einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung, Zentrum für Um-
weltforschung, Münster, 1997.

Graedel, T.E. and Crutzen, P.J.: Chemie der Atmosphä-

re - Bedeutung für Klima und Umwelt, Spektrum Aka-
demischer Verlag, Heidelberg, 1994.

163
Grove, R. H.: Imperialism and the Natural World,
University of Manchester Press, Manchester, 1990.

Grove, R.H.: Die Anfänge des Umweltbewußtseins,

Spektrum der Wissenschaft, Digest: Umwelt-Wirtschaft,
Heidelberg, 1994.

Haggett, P.: Geographie - Eine moderne Synthese, Eu-

gen Ulmer, Stuttgart, 1991.

Hasenbäumer, J.: Der Nachweis von Pflanzen-

beschädigungen durch Rauchgase und Staub, in “Fest-
schrift der Medizinisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Gesell-
schaft zu Münster”, Münster, 1912.

Harborth, H.J.: Ist Wirtschaftswachstum des Nordens

nötig, damit sich der Süden entwickeln kann?,
contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.

Hein, W.: Bevölkerungswachstum, Armut und Umwelt,

contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.

Heinloth, K.: Energie, Teubner, Stuttgart, 1983

Heinrich, D. and Hergt, M.: dtv-Atlas zur Ökologie, dtv,

München, 1990.

164
Hennicke, P.: Der Wandel zum Energie-
dienstleistungsunternehmen: Ökologie als Kernproblem
energiewirtschaftlichen Handelns, contributed talk,
Symposium Energie und Umwelt - Strategien einer nach-
haltigen Entwicklung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung,
Münster, 1997.

Holland, H.D. and Petersen, U.: Living Dangerously -

The Earth, Its Resources and the Environment, Prince-
ton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1995.

Houghton, J.T.: The Physics of Atmospheres, Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991.

Hüsing, J.M.: Schienenverkehrskonzept Region Münster,

Wuppertal-Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie, Wup-
pertal, 1995.

Jarass, H.D. and Neumann, L.F.: Leistungen des EG-

Umweltschutzes, Economica, Bonn, 1994.

Jarass, H.D.: Europäisches Umweltrecht, contributed

talk, Symposium Umwelt und Europa, Zentrum für
Umweltforschung, Münster, 1998.

Johnston, R.J.: Geography and Geographers - Anglo-

American Human Geography since 1945, Arnold, Lon-
don, 1997.

Langbein, K., Mühlberger, M. and Skalnik, C. (ed.):

Kursbuch Lebensqualität, Kiepenheuer und Witsch,
Köln, 1995

165
Lovelock, J. and Margulis, L.: Homeostatic Tendencies
of the Earth’s Atmosphere, Origins of Life, vol. 5, 1974.

Kabelitz, K.: Das Kyoto-Agreement - Eine Zäsur?‚, in

„Vorträge und Studien des Zentrums für Umweltfor-
schung der Westfälischen Wilhelms Universität“, Heft
8, ecomed, Landsberg, 1998.

Kahn, H.: Die Zukunft der Welt, Molden, München,

1979.

Karl, H.: Die EU auf dem Weg zur Umweltunion?,

contributed talk, Symposium Umwelt und Europa, Zen-
trum für Umweltforschung, Münster, 1998.

Kruse-Graumann, L.: Umweltbildung für Bewußtsein

und Verhalten, contributed talk, Symposium „Globale
Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung,
Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Kukuck, H.A. (ed.): Stromdiskussion - Dokumente und

Kommentare zur energiewirtschaftlichen und energie-
politischen Diskussion, Informationszentrale der
Elektrizitätswirtschaft, Frankfurt, 1996.

Kunkel, A. (ed.): Dossier: Dritte Welt, Spektrum der

Wissenschaft, Heidelberg, 1996.

Lange, L.: Ozeane und Polargebiete als Klimatologische

Steuerungsfaktoren, contributed talk, Symposium „Glo-
bale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltfor-
schung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

166
Latif, M.: El Niño/Southern Oscilliation, Physikalische
Blätter, Heft 6, 1998.

Lecherler, H. and Gundel, J.: Die Rolle von Art. 90 Abs.

2 und 3 EGV in einem liberalisierten Energiemarkt -
Zur Bedeutung der EuGH-Entscheidungen vom
23.10.1997 für die Zukunft, Recht der Energiewirtschaft,
No. 3, Carl Heymanns Verlag, Köln, 1998

Lechtenböhmer, S.: Energieeinspar- und CO 2 -

Vermeidungspotentiale in Münster im Bereich Strom-
einsatz der Kleinverbraucher, 1990-2005 sowie Emis-
sionen der Landwirtschaft in Münster, Institut für Geo-
graphie der Universität Münster, Münster, 1994.

Legget, J. et al: Global Warming - Die Wärme-

katastrophe und wie wir sie verhindern können (Der
Greenpeace Report), Piper, 1991.

Linscheidt, B. and Truger, A.: Preise für die Umwelt-

nutzung - gibt es eine bessere Lösung?, Spektrum der
Wissenschaft, No. 8, 1998.

Linsmeier, K.D.: Schlüsseltechnologien - Spektrum der

Wissenschaft Spezial 4, Spektrum, Heidelberg, 1995.

Lippold, K.W. et al: Klimaänderung gefährdet globale

Entwicklung - Zukunft sichern - jetzt handeln, erster
Bericht der Enquete-Kommission „Schutz der Erdatmo-
sphäre“ des 12. Deutschen Bundestages, Economica
Verlag, Bonn, 1992.

Loske, R.: Klimapolitik, Metropolis, Wuppertal, 1997.

167
Lüttge, U.: Nichtlineare Dynamik beim Wandel von Kli-
ma und Biodiversität, contributed talk, Symposium
„Globale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für Umwelt-
forschung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Lyell, C.: Principles of Geology, 1830-33.

Massarat, M.: Das Dilemma der ökologischen Steuer-

reform, Spektrum der Wissenschaft, No. 8, 1998.

Mayhew, S. and Penny, A.: The Concise Oxford

Dictionary Of Geography, Oxford University Press,
Oxford, 1992.

Mohr, H.: Umweltwissen - was ist das eigentlich?,

contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.
Myers, M. (ed.): GAIA - Der Öko-Atlas Unserer Erde,
Fischer, 1985.

Nagel, H.D.: Critical Loads & Levels: naturwissen-

schaftliche Bestandteile eines Indikatorensystems für
dauerhaft-umweltgerechte Entwicklungen, Akademie für
Technikfolgenabschätzung Baden Württemberg, Stutt-
gart, 1997.

Nitsch, J.: Technologische Nutzungspotentiale der

regenerativen Energien, contributed talk, Symposium
Energie und Umwelt - Strategien einer nachhaltigen
Entwicklung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Münster,
1997.

168
Ott, H.E.: The Kyoto Protocol - Unfinished Business,
Environment, Vol. 40, No. 6, July/August 1998.

Owens, J.W.: LCA Impact Assessment Categories -

Technical Feasibility and Accuracy, The International
Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Vol. 1, No. 3, ecomed,
1996.

Pickering, T.R. and Speth, G. et al: Global 2000 - der

Bericht an den Präsidenten, Zweitausendeins, Frank-
furt am Main, 1980.

Pfaffenberger, W.: Ökosteuern als Baustein der Ener-

giepolitik - Vom theoretischen Modell zur wirtschaftli-
chen Konzeption, contributed talk, Symposium Energie
und Umwelt - Strategien einer nachhaltigen Entwick-
lung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Münster, 1997.

Pfister,, G. and Renn, O.: Ein Indikatorensystem zur

Messung einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung in Baden
Württemberg, Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung
Baden Württemberg, Stuttgart, 1996.

Pfister, G. and Renn, O.: Die Studie „Zukunftsfähiges

Deutschland“ des Wuppertal Instituts im Vergleich zum
Nachhaltigkeitskonzept der Akademie für Technik-
folgenabschätzung, Akademie für Technikfolgenab-
schätzung Baden Württemberg, Arbeitsbericht Nr. 75,
Stuttgart, 1997.

Redclift, M. and Benton, T. (ed.): Social Theory and the

Global Environment, Routledge, London, 1994.

Reddish, A. and Blackmore, R.: Global Environmental

Issues, Hodder & Stoughton, London, 1996.

169
Remmert, H.: Ökologie, Springer, 1989.

Reusswig, F.: Konsumdynamik, Ökologie und Lebens-

stile in OECD Ländern, contributed talk, Symposium
„Globale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für Umwelt-
forschung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Roszak, T.: The Voice of the Earth, Simon & Schuster,

New York, 1992.

Samuelson, P.A. and Nordhaus, W.D.: ECONOMICS,

Mac Graw Hill, New York, 1985.

Schafhausen, F.J.: Globale Umweltpolitik nach Rio und

Berlin, contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.

Schallaböck, K.O.: Luftverkehr und Klimaschutz - Op-

tionen für Münster, Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Kli-
ma und Energie der Stadt Münster, Münster, 1995.

Schallaböck, K.O.: Luftverkehr und Klima - ein Pro-

blemfall, Wuppertal Institut, Wuppertal, 1995.

Schallaböck, K.O.: Ein Beitrag zu Luftverkehr und Kli-

ma in Münster, Wuppertal Institut, Wuppertal, 1998.

Schmidbauer, B. et al: Schutz der Erde, Eine Bestands-

aufnahme mit Vorschlägen einer neuen Energiepolitik,

Teilband I, Study Commission „Vorsorge zum Schutz

der Erdatmosphäre“ of the German Bundestag,, Schrif-
tenreihe „Zur Sache“ of the German Bundestag, Bonn,
1990.

170
Schmidbauer, B. et al: Schutz der Erde, Eine Bestands-
aufnahme mit Vorschlägen einer neuen Energiepolitik,
Teilband II, Study Commission „Vorsorge zum Schutz
der Erdatmosphäre“ of the German Bundestag,
Economica Verlag, Bonn, 1991.

Schönwiese, C.D.: Indikatoren des Klimawandels - der

Mensch in Konkurenz zur Natur, contributed talk, Sym-
posium „Globale Umweltveränderungen“, Zentrum für
Umweltforschung, Münster, June 17-18, 1996.

Schöps, H.J. and Wild, D. (ed.): Die Erde 2000 - Wohin

sich die Menschheit entwickelt, Spiegel Spezial, Spie-
gel Verlag Rudolf Augstein, 1993.

Schumann, U.: On the Effects of Emissions From

Aircraft Engines on the State of the Atmosphere, DLR,
Oberpfaffenhofen, 1993.

Seager, J.: Der Öko Atlas, J.H.W. Dietz Nachf., Bonn,

1991.

Seitz, J.L.: Global Issues, Blackwell, Oxford, 1995.

Simonis, U.E.: Globale Umweltpolitik - Ansätze und

Perspektiven, Meyers Forum, B.I. Taschenbuchverlag,
Mannheim, 1996.

Simonis, U.E.: Auf dem Weg zur Weltumweltpolitik,

contributed talk, Symposium „Globale Umwelt-
veränderungen“, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Mün-
ster, June 17-18, 1996.

171
Specht, A. Wildt, B. (ed.): Förderprogramm Altbau-
sanierung, Umweltamt der Stadt Münster, Münster,
1997.

Stadt Münster, Antrag Nr. 2/91 der CDU Ratsfraktion

vom 27.12.1990 „Beirat für Klima und Energie“,
Beschlußvorlage an den Finanzausschuß, Umweltamt,
Münster, 1992.

Stadt Münster: Antrag der SPD-Fraktion und Fraktion

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen/GAL an den Rat Nr. 36/94 vom
02.12.1994 „Beitritt zum Klima-Bündnis der Europäi-
schen Städte mit indigenen Völkern der Regenwälder“,
Beschlußvorlage an den Finanzausschuß, Umweltamt,
Münster, 1995.

Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und

Energie, Kenntnisnahme des Rates der Stadt Münster,
Umweltamt, Münster, 1995.

Stadt Münster: Einrichtung der Koordinierungsstelle

Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster, Ergänzungsvor-
lage zur Beschlußvorlage an den Rat, Umweltamt, Mün-
ster, 1995.

Stadt Münster: Handlungskonzept zur Umsetzung des

Beirates für Klima und Energie, Beschlußvorlage an den
Rat, Umweltamt, Münster, 1995.

Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und

Energie, Teil 1: Handlungsempfehlungen, Werkstatt-
berichte zum Umweltschutz 5, Umweltamt, Münster,
1995.

172
Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und
Energie, Teil 2: Erläuterungen, Werkstattberichte zum
Umweltschutz 6, Umweltamt, Münster, 1995.

Stadt Münster: Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und

Energie, Teil 3, Werkstattberichte zum Umweltschutz
7, Umweltamt, Münster, 1995.

Stadt Münster: Einrichtung des Klimaschutz- und

Energiespar-Forums Münster, Beschlußvorlage an den
Rat, Umweltamt, Münster, 1996.

Stadt Münster: Arbeitsstand der Maßnahmen aus dem

Bereich Ü (Sektorübergreifende Handlungs-
empfehlungen) des Handlungskonzeptes zur Umsetzung
der Empfehlungen des Beirates für Klima und Energie,
Bericht an den Rat, Umweltamt , Münster, 1997.

Stadt Münster: Bericht zur Einführung eines Öko-Audits

in der Stadtverwaltung Münster, Umweltamt, Münster,
1997.

Stadt Münster: Wärmepaß der Stadt Münster, Beschluß-

vorlage an den Rat, Umweltamt, Münster, 1997.

Stadt Münster: Wärmedämmstandards für Neubauten

in städtischen Grundstückskaufverträgen, Beschlußvor-
lage an den Rat, Umweltamt, Münster, 1997.
Stadt Münster: Energie und Klimainventur 1995,
Berichtsvorlage an den Rat, Umweltamt Münster, 1997.

Stadt Münster: Öko-Audit für die Stadtverwaltung Mün-

ster, Beschlußvorlage an den Rat, Umweltamt, Münster,
1997.

173
Stadt Münster: Arbeitsstand der Maßnahmen aus dem
Bereich B (Bauen und Wohnen) des Handlungskonzep-
tes zur Umsetzung der Empfehlungen des Beirates für
Klima und Energie, Berichtsvorlage an den Ausschuß
für Umwelt und Bauwesen, Umweltamt, Münster, 1997.

Stadt Münster: Informationen der KLENKO

Koordinierungsstelle für Klima und Energie zu „Mün-
ster - Hauptstadt des Klimaschutzes 1997“, Umweltamt,
Münster, 1997.

Strahler, A.H. and Strahler, A.N.: Modern Physical

Geography, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1992.

Thiesen, S.: Warum Bailey sich irrt, Compuserve Earth

Forum, 1998, partly in Readers Digest (German edition),
May, 1998.

Ströbele, W.: Für welche Zwecke wird Energie in wel-

cher Qualität benötigt?, contributed talk, Symposium
Energie und Umwelt - Strategien einer nachhaltigen
Entwicklung, Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Münster,
1997.

UNEP: Reports of the Conference of the Parties on its

third Session held at Kyoto From 1 to 11 December 1997,
UNEP, Bonn, 1998.

Wakeford, T. and Walters, M. (ed.): Science for the Earth,

Can Science Make the World a Better Place?, John Wiley
& Sons, Chichester, 1995.

174
Weber, R.: Strom aus tausend Quellen, Olynthus,
Oberbözberg, 1986.

Weber, R.: Webers Taschenlexikon Energie+Umwelt,

Olynthus, Vaduz, 1992.

Weber, R.: Webers Taschenlexikon Erneuerbare Ener-

gie, Olynthus, Vaduz, 1995.

Weik, H., Blohm, R. and Pietzner, M: Endenergie-

Verbräuche und CO2.Emission der statistischen Bezir-
ke in Münster für die Bereitstellung von Nieder-
temperaturwärme der Haushalte, Arbeitspapier für den
Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster, Mün-
ster, 1993.

Weik, H.: Einfluß der Gebäudeorientierung auf den

passiv-solaren Energiegewinn in Münster, Arbeitspapier
für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster,
Münster, 1994.

Weik, H.: Einfluß der Orientierung von Dachempfangs-

flächen auf den aktiven Solargewinn in Münster, Arbeit-
spapier für den Beirat für Klima und Energie der Stadt
Münster, Münster, 1995.

Vereinigte Elektrizitätswerke Westfalen: Blickpunkt -

Magazin für Energie und Umwelt, Vol. 2, 1998, VEW,
Dortmund, 1998.

Weik, H.: Niedertemperaturbedarf der Schulen in Mün-

ster und Anregungen zur Erziehung der Schüler zu
Umweltbewußtsein, Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für
Klima und Energie der Stadt Münster, Münster, 1995.

175
Weik, H. and Blohm, R.: Entwicklung der Endenergie-
Verbräuche und CO2 Emission der statistischen Bezir-
ke in Münster für die Bereitstellung von Nieder-
temperaturwärme der Haushalte zwischen 1990 und
1992, Arbeitspapier für den Beirat für Klima und Ener-
gie der Stadt Münster, Münster, 1995.

Weik, H.: Energie-Grenzbelastung und CO2-Problem

im kosmischen Zusammenhang - Folgerungen für die
Bereitstellung von Niedertemperaturwärme in Münster,
Studie für den Endbericht des Beirates für Klima und
Energie der Stadt Münster, Münster, 1995.

Weischet, W.: Einführung in die Allgemeine

Klimatologie, Teubner, Stuttgart, 1991.

Weizsäcker, E.U., Lovins, A.B. and Lovins, L.H.: FAK-

TOR VIER Doppelter Wohlstand - halbierter Natur-
verbrauch, Der neue Bericht an den Club of Rome,
Knaur, München, 1995.

Williams, G.R.: The Molecular Biology of Gaia,

Columbia University Press, New York, 1996.

Willemsen, R.: Kopf oder Adler - Ermittlungen gegen

Deutschland, Edition Tiamat, Berlin, 1992.

Wittkämper, G.W.: Die europäische Umweltpolitik im

Zeichen der ökonomischen Globalisierung, contributed
talk, Symposium Umwelt und Europa, Zentrum für Um-
weltforschung, Münster, 1998.

Yates, E.M.: MA Geography, University of London,

London, 1997.

176
FOOTNOTES:

1Gladden, Lee: Personal communication (1994)

2F. Dyson: Private communication (1994)
3A. Unsöld, B. Baschek: Der Neue Kosmos, Springer
(1988)
4No proper translation exists in German for “habitable
zone”. I suggest “Stellare Lebenszone”.
5Kasting, Whitmire and Reynolds (1993)
6Reynolds and Whitmeyer, (1996)
7Kasting et.al. (1993)
8M.Joshi, R. Haberle (1996)
9Reynolds and Whitmeyer, (1996)
10Iben (1967)
11after Houghton (1986)
12Unsöld/Baschek, 1989
13based upon the simulation software “SimEarth - the
living planet” by Maxis computers, user Manual by Mi-
chael Bremer, 1989; the Software is “Dedicated to Gaia,
without whom this game would not be possible”. Before
the introduction it reads “Is this a random world or did
you planet?”, the most pondered question by
SimEarthling philosophers...
14This does not mean that those “little fluctuations”
have no relevance for the life forms on the planet. Ice-
ages and warm-ages are known to be responsible for
mass extinction of species, and the anthropogenic
greenhouse effect may well have extremely devastating
effects on the human civilization; this is the topic of my
dissertation for the University of London.
15Moore, (1994), Lascu et al. (1993)
16Morrison, D. and Owen T.: The Planetary System,
Addison Wesley (1987)

177
 17Venus shows retrograde rotation
18 convection does occur between lower and upper
atmosphere and most probably Hadley cells that even
range from the equator to the poles also exist - but they
do not dominate the atmospheric circulation.
19Goldsmith and Owen: The Search for Life in the Uni-
verse, Addison Wesley (1992)
20Matter of factly the term “Greenhouse Effect” is fairly
unprecise because most of the heating effect of a glass
Greenhouse is a result from limited convection - which
glass walls do but “greenhouse gases” don’t.
21John M. Jenkins: Venus: A Failed Earth?, SETI In-
stitute (1996)
22Paul E. Geissler: Encounter With Earth, Planetary
Report Vol. XV, May/June 1995
23A. Léger, J.M. Mariotti, J.L. Puget, D. Rouan, J.
Schneider: How To Evidence Primitive Life On An
Exoplanet? The Darwin Project in “Circumstellar
Habitable Zones - Proceedings of the first international
conference, Travis House (1996)
24More details in Part III
25H. Cooper: The Search for Life on Mars, Holt,
Rinehart & Winston (1980)
26See Part III of project
27in the sense of “not biological”
28Mars Underground News, Volume 8, No. 1 (1996)
29T. Owen and A. Bar-Nun: Comets, Impacts and
Atmospheres, ICARUS, 116, 215-226 (1996)
30T. Yamamoto, K. Tsuruda: Aiming for the Red Pla-
net, Mars Underground News, Vol. 8 No. 3 (1996)
31See Appendix for graphical presentation of Energy
consumption trends in Germany
32The „Institut für Klimafolgenforschung“ (Institute for
Climate impact Research) was established in Potsdam

178
in 1996 with 21 employees. According to the first
director - Hans Joachim Schellnhuber - the institute is
completely understaffed, and at least 1000 scientists
would be necessary to appropriately cope with the task
at hand.
33For location see map in appendix
34In addition all major national and some international
NGOs have local offices in Münster, including
Greenpeace and Naturschutzbund Deutschland
35Original quote: „Das Nachhaltigkeitspostulat orien-
tiert sich demnach an den Bedürfnissen von Menschen.
Doch warum sollte man zukünftigen Generationen die
Möglichkeit zur Befriedigung ihrer Bedürfnisse geben?
Ergibt sich diese Forderung aus objektiven Gegeben-
heiten?“
36Assumptions: electricity from traditional West-
German power plant mix is replaced/substituted; the
cost/benefit calculation was based upon general
guidelines for investments in Germany and generally
accepted approaches for running costs, based upon a
twenty year model and 4% increase (Meixner, 1996)
37Prof. Holtmeier, a Geo-Botanist
38See appendix for Interview with Drs. Krämer and
Hülster
39Dr. Anke Hülster, Agronomist and CEO of the ZUFO
Münster
40Prof. Dr. Manfred Lange, Geophysicist, climate
impact researcher, Inst. f. Geophysics, Münster
41Dr. Olaf Kiese, Meteorologist, Geographer, academic
director of the Institute for Geoecology, Münster
42Some of Münster’s activities were evaluated as po-
sitive, although a more detailed analysis might prove
the opposite. One example is the action „Verzicht auf
Tropenholz“ which encourages organizations and

179
corporations in Münster to refrain from using tropical
woods, and the city itself has committed itself to the
same. This is intended to help preserving the rain forests
and therefore CO2 sinks. A closer look at economic
realities however reveals that this strategy does not
necessarily result in the hoped for protection of rain
forests. The Malaysian minister for agriculture argued,
„If there is no demand for tropical wood, forests are
worthless and will be replaced with plantations and
development“ (Pakkesem, 1996). As a result, a boycott
against tropical wood may not result in sustainable
tropical agriculture but instead in increased deforestation.
43In Münster CO was reduced by 20%, NOx by 35.7%,
SO2 by 12.4% and aerosols by 53% in the 5 year period
1990-1995 (Umweltamt der Stadt Münster, 1997). It is
mainly the implementation of „end of pipe“ technology
(filters, catalysators) that is responsible for these
substantial successes.

180