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Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 49 (2017) 983e988

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Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

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Study of dynamic risk management system for flammable and

explosive dangerous chemicals storage area
Xuanya Liu a, b, *, Jingjing Li a, b, Xinwei Li a, b
Tianjin Fire Research Institute of MPS, Tianjin 300381, China
Key Laboratory of Building Fire Protection Engineering and Technology, Tianjin 300381, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In order to improve the ability of emergency management for storage area of dangerous chemicals, a
Received 3 November 2016 framework of risk management technical system about the flammable and explosive dangerous chem-
Received in revised form icals was proposed. Combined with the dynamic changes of dangerous sources, risk analysis for storage
24 January 2017
area of dangerous chemicals was conducted based on the Bow-Tie model. Dynamic hazards analysis
Accepted 6 February 2017
Available online 8 February 2017
method and classification system were established based on Set Pair Analysis, updating results in real
time with the storage capacity and accident characteristics. Integrating with the GIS, Internet of Things,
detection and sensing information technology, a dynamic security monitoring system was proposed.
Dynamic risk
Based on the database technology, the emergency decision support system of dangerous chemicals was
Dangerous chemicals made, including storage date, emergency resource, emergency plans, information of risk, etc. Using the
Storage area dynamic risk management system, it can effectively achieve the goal of dynamic supervision, risk
Emergency management identification, real-time monitoring as well as assisting the emergency decision making of dangerous
chemicals in the whole life cycle. All models are comprehensively composed of the framework of dy-
namic risk management system, including identification, classification, assessment, supervision and
emergency management.
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction easily cause a vicious disaster such as fire, explosion with casualties,
property damage and environment pollution.
In recent years, with the rapid development of chemical in- According to the statistics, from 2010 to 2014, there were a total
dustry, chemical production and varieties increased at an alarming of 326 cases of dangerous chemical accidents in China, with about
rate, including the intermediate chemical production of raw ma- 2237 people were killed. On August 12, 2015, an explosion occurred
terials and the types of chemical products. The dangerous chem- at the Tianjin Ruihai storage area of dangerous goods, killed 173
icals are always flammable, explosive, poisonous and corrosive. people. Considering the dynamic changes of hazard installations,
During the whole life cycle of packaging, transportation, storage, the fire and explosion accidents would always be unpredictable,
use and destruction, the risk of accidents varies with the amount difficult to dispose and disastrous. Thus, it is extremely important
and environment of storage, so it will be probably greater challenge to ensure the safety of dense dangerous chemical production,
to the safety management and accident prevention. At present, the storage and transportation, and to improve the ability of fire
production, storage and transportation of dangerous chemicals are emergency rescue of dangerous chemicals.
required to enter the professional chemical industry park, which In recent years, according to the frequent dangerous chemical
makes the installations of dangerous chemicals concentrated and accidents, topics such as the dangerous chemicals, risk manage-
easily forms a major concentration region of hazard installations. ment and accident emergency decision support researches have
Once the leakage occurred, process is out of control, storage of become quite active. Many experts and scholars have carried out
flammable and explosive hazardous chemicals is improper, it can thorough research on dynamic risk analysis of dangerous chemicals
and emergency disposal of auxiliary decision-making technology.
Valeria Villa presented a review of risk assessment process for the
* Corresponding author. Tianjin Fire Research Institute of MPS, Tianjin 300381, chemical and process industries, and presented methodological
China. and applicative contributions of several recent dynamic risk
E-mail address: (X. Liu).
0950-4230/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
984 X. Liu et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 49 (2017) 983e988

assessment approaches (Villa et al., 2016). 2.4. Chain and dynamic

As for the dynamic risk analysis of dangerous chemicals, some of
the attempts were made by researchers. Bucci presented a meth- As the economy thriving, the amount of stored dangerous
odology to extend fault trees and event trees in a dynamic chemicals continues to grow. As a result, the risk of storage area is
perspective (Bucci et al., 2008). Markowski AS established some increasing. As the amount and type of stored dangerous chemicals
dynamic probability analysis models based on the fuzzy probability changes, the accident features alter correspondingly. Meanwhile
dynamic risk assessment method (Markowski et al., 2011). Khakzad fire, explosion or leakage of dangerous chemicals in storage area
proposed a new methodology based on Bayesian network to esti- occur, it will easily lead to domino effects and other chain accidents.
mate the domino efffect porbability at different levels (Khakzad
et al., 2013c) and amended the accident probability dynamically 2.5. Difficult rescue
(Khakzad et al., 2013). Kalantarnia proposed the dynamic risk
analysis model, which was used to modify the accident probability The fire, explosion or leakage of dangerous chemicals needs
on the Texas refinery accident (M Kalantarnia et al., 2009 & 2010). professional rescue teams and people with professional knowledge.
The integration with established bow-tie technique also provided Meanwhile emergency disposal measure should be taken based on
an effective solution to a sugar refinery explosion (Khakzad et al., the types of dangerous chemicals in order to control the accident
2012). However, the in-depth research about dynamic risk anal- effectively.
ysis of dangerous chemicals is lack in China, especially bared on the
topics such as risk analysis and emergency management of 3. The dynamic management system of dangerous chemicals
dangerous chemical storage area.
As for the emergency decision-making model research, scholars 3.1. System framework
tried to use some mathematics methods in the field of risk analysis,
sensitivity analysis and probability analysis to evaluate the emer- Combined with the characteristics of dynamic changes of
gency process (Hopkins, 2011; Markowski et al., 2011). The re- dangerous sources, a dynamic management system about flam-
searchers mostly conducted the qualitative analysis of the existing mable and explosive dangerous chemicals storage areas is pro-
decision-making model to solve a specific incident after the posed, integrating the function about risk analysis, risk monitor,
outbreak of the emergency decision problem, choosing the emergency management and etc. The framework of system is
perspective of one stage instead of whole life cycle period. shown as Fig. 1.
The characteristics of dangerous chemicals accidents are sum- The system is aimed at achieving eight goals: real-time monitor
marized in Section 2. In order to improve the efficiency of and alarm of storage status, operations management, storage in-
dangerous chemicals accident emergency disposal, Section 3 pro- formation management, quantitative risk assessment, conse-
poses the framework of dynamic risk management system and quences forecasting of accidents, emergency resource
emergency disposal auxiliary management technology system of management, and emergency aided decision-making, qualification
dangerous chemical. In section 4, conclusions are drawn on prob- management of company and operators.
able future development and prospect.
3.2. Dynamic risk analysis
2. Characteristics of dangerous chemicals accidents
3.2.1. Risk factors analysis
2.1. Whole life cycle The dangerous chemicals area is a typically complex dynamic
system with multiple interacting factors. As such, it is important to
During the whole life cycle of dangerous chemicals, including have a comprehensive understanding of the risk sources and its
producing, using, storage, management, transportation and waste damage. Bow-tie model is a graphical description for risk sources,
disposing, the leakage, fire and explosion accidents may occur at risk events, potential consequence and control measures that
any time. These accidents are closely related to improper opera- minimize risks in amount and severity (Khakzad et al., 2012; Saud
tions, chaotic management, equipment failure and other factors. et al., 2014). It was used in analyzing the explosion accident of
Alpha offshore platform in 1988 by Royal Dutch Shell (Johansen and
2.2. Complexity Rausand, 2015), and has been widely applied in various industrial
fields of risk analysis ever since. Nowadays, it is entirely feasible to
The dangerous chemicals accident is of complexity. The security identify the risk factors based on Bow-tie model. Starting with
of the dangerous chemical storage area is affected by a variety of factors and their interactions, such as human, environment, ma-
factors, such as environment condition, human errors, equipment terials and management, types of risk sources need to be complexly
defects and management confusion. As a result, the reasons of the identified and the accident consequence need to be qualitatively
accident can sometimes be various and complex. Usually a wide analyzed, which will be helpful to filter the management objects.
range of dangerous chemicals with different physical and chemical Based on the qualitative analysis of risk factors, bow-tie model
properties are storage at the same time, causing the accident evo- can be converted to FTA or Bayesian model considering correlation
lution of dangerous chemicals to be complex and unpredictable. of risk factors. According to the data failure from the database or
estimating experiences, the accident probability can to some extent
2.3. Sudden in occurrence be predicted and be updated with database. If the accident risk is
unacceptable, viable control measures need to be taken to control
The relatively unstable characteristics of dangerous chemical risks at an acceptable level.
goods require strict environment conditions, such as temperature Taking LNG tanks as an example, the risk factors of leakage and
and humidity. If the environment conditions change suddenly, ac- spill accidents based on bow-tie model is shown in Fig. 2. The cause
cidents are more likely to occur. If dangerous chemicals with of inflammable and explosive dangerous chemicals leakage and
different properties are stored for mixing, for example oxidant and spill accident factors mainly include human operation errors, safety
reductant, chemical reaction is more likely to happen and the ac- storage conditions failure, process or device out of control, and etc.
cident will be occurred. Accordingly, in view of the safety demand of hazardous chemical
X. Liu et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 49 (2017) 983e988 985

Fig. 1. Framework of dynamic risk management system platform.

materials storage and transportation, a series of corresponding expanding range of fire. A total of 15 people were killed and 800
measures are taken to prevent the risk factors inducing further injured in the accident with about 39 thousand square meters of
evolution of accidents, and to ensure the safety of dangerous buildings destroyed (Zhang, 2000). The direct economic loss was
chemicals. The main security measures include: proper operating 250 million. Through analysis, the development process of chain
procedure, storage environment monitoring measurement, process accidents is shown in Fig. 3. Furthermore, it is helpful to find the
monitor and control measurement, safety protection measurement. key notes of evolution process, which will become the focus of
Once the control measures failed, they will lead to a series of ac- safety management.
cidents. In the case of dangerous chemicals leakage or spill, if it isn't
controlled effectively, the leakage chemicals can induce toxic and
3.3. Dynamic risk classification
harmful substances diffusion, fire and explosion. On the thermal
effect of fire, the explosion will occur due to physical overpressure
There are mainly two ways to classify the risk sources: static
or boiling liquid expanding vapor.
classification, where the fixed classification or amount of risk
sources is fixed; or dynamic classification, where classification
3.2.2. Accident sequence analysis standard or risk sources number is variable. As the risk of
Dangerous chemicals accident has dynamic characteristic with dangerous chemicals storage area is dynamic, it is more suitable to
domino effect. Besides risk factors analysis of a specific accident, use the method of dynamic classification. Set pair analysis belongs
the evolution routes analysis of chain accidents need to be con- to one of the systemic analysis methods that handling the uncer-
ducted in order to prevent chain accidents. Taking the Qingshuihe tainty (Aili, 1996). It allows us to study the diversity, identity and
dangerous chemical warehouse explosion accident as an example, contrariety between two different set with simplification-thinking
the chain accidents model is shown in Fig. 3. Qingshuihe dangerous mode. Judgment criterion of risk level was made based on the
chemical warehouse induced catastrophic explosion in Shenzhen model of pool fire thermal radiation and explosion. Using the
on August 5, 1993. After about an hour, the second powerful ex- method of Set Pair analysis, the risk level is calculated and classified
plosion happened following fire, inflicting wider damage and with the basis data of storage quantity, chemical property and
986 X. Liu et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 49 (2017) 983e988

Fig. 2. Risk factors of dangerous chemicals leakage and spill accidents.

Fig. 3. Dynamic risk analysis of Qingshuihe explosion.

X. Liu et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 49 (2017) 983e988 987

Fig. 4. Framework of dynamic information database system.

storage modes. The results are not fixed, yet there are changing system (Fig. 4). The manager can inquire report and dispose the
with the amount and types of danger chemicals stored. information by app mobile devices or computers.

3.4. Information monitor 3.5. Emergency management

Based on information technology, a real-time monitor system of A decision-making database is built to offer decisive data,
stored dangerous chemical is built to achieve information sharing composed of four sub-databases: the monitor information sub-
and tracking. It is also helpful to quickly provide relevant data database, dangerous chemicals property sub-database, emergency
during the safety management and fire emergency, and can realize resource sub-database and emergency plans sub-database. It is
the real-time monitoring, dynamic evaluation and supervision of divided into three levels for different units: fire disposal and
different category number, location and status information for the management of fire department, risk management and monitor of
dangerous chemicals storage area. company, the supervision of government safety administration.
Logging and monitoring the input-output information of Based on the decision-making database, a quick and intelligent
dangerous chemicals is implemented through e-signatures by us- decision technology is developed, which eventually forms the de-
ing Internet of Things and Geographic Information System. The cision support system with function integration.
dangerous chemicals are fitted with a small electronic tag that
contains basis information like storage position, type, number and 4. Conclusion and prospect
property. When it moves through the doorway, a sensor will log the
details. Logging and monitoring state information is conducted by Construction of the dynamic risk management system of
traditional monitoring technology, such the sensors and video dangerous chemicals based on the information technology will
monitor. Temperature, humidity and other state information are become a hot trend in future. With the development of technology,
stored and reported in time as well. Finally, all information is in- the system that involves GIS, internet of things, information fusion
tegrated on the internet with surroundings based on database and other technologies can master the risk factors and evolution
technology to form a real-time dynamic information monitor rules of accidents in dangerous chemicals storage area, recording all
988 X. Liu et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 49 (2017) 983e988

related data in real time. Building comprehensive information Bucci, P., Kirschenbaum, J., Mangan, L.A., Aldemir, T., Smith, C., Wood, T., 2008.
Construction of event-tree/fault-tree models from a Markov approach to dy-
database for dangerous chemical database on accident character-
namic system reliability. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93, 1616e1627.
istics, stored information and emergency response plans can Hopkins, A., 2011. Risk-management and rule-compliance: decision-making in
strongly support the quick emergency disposal. It can provide hazardous industries. Saf. Sci. 49 (2), 110e120.
guidance that including positions of the firefighters, accident in- Johansen, I.L., Rausand, M., 2015. Barrier management in the offshore oil and gas
industry. J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 34, 49e55.
fluence scope predicted, quantity demanded of emergency re- Kalantarnia, M., Khan, F., Hawboldt, K., 2009. Dynamic risk assessment using failure
sources and rescue tactics. The dynamic management system can assessment and bayesian theory. J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 22 (5), 600e606.
be used by enterprise safety managers and emergency workers on Kalantarnia, M., Khan, F., Hawboldt, K., 2010. Modelling of bp Texas city refinery
accident using dynamic risk assessment approach. Process Saf. Environ. Prot. 88
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Khakzad, N., Khan, F., Amyotte, P., 2013. Risk-based design of process systems using
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