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Chpt. 8 Binomial Distributions Homework

A free-throw shooter has a 70% average for making free-throws. Out of 20 attempts, find
the following probabilities:

1. P(10 makes) 2. P(at least 10 makes)


binomialPdf(20, .7, 10) binomialCdf(20, .7, 10, 20)
.030817 .982855

3. P(17 makes) 4. P(at most 17 makes)

binomialPdf(20, .7, 17) binomialCdf(20, .7, 0, 17)


.071604 .964517

5. P(20 makes) 6. P(5 makes)

binomialPdf(20, .7, 20) binomialPdf(20, .7, 5)


.000798 .000037

7. P(16 or more makes) 8. P(11 makes)

binomialCdf(20, .7, 16, 20) binomialPdf(20, .7, 11)


.237508 .06537

9. P(at most 11 makes) 10. P(at least 11 makes)

binomialCdf(20, .7, 0, 11) binomialCdf(20, .7, 11, 20)


.113331 .952038

11. P(between 12 to 17 makes) 12. P(from 12 to 17 makes inclusive)

binomialCdf(20, .7, 13, 16) binomialCdf(20, .7, 12, 17)


.665185 .851185

13. How many free-throws do you expect this shooter to make?


20 ∗ .7 = 14
14. If the probability that a light bulb is defective is .1, what is the probability that
exactly 3 of 8 light bulbs are defective? At most 3 of 8 are defective?

binomialPdf(8, .1, 3) binomialCdf(8, .1, 0, 3)


.033067 .994976

15. Suppose that 30% of employees in a large factory are smokers. What is the
probability that there will be exactly two smokers in a randomly chosen five-person
work group? At least 2 smokers in the same group?

binomialPdf(5, .3, 2) binomialCdf(5, .3, 2, 5)


.3087 .47178

16. Joe DiMaggio had a career batting average of .325. What was the probability that he
would get at least one hit in five official at-bats?

binomialCdf(5, .325, 1, 5)
.859874

17. A manager notes that there is a .125 probability that any employee will arrive late for
work. What is the probability that exactly one person in a six person department will
arrive late?
binomialPdf(6, .125, 1)
.384682

18. A manufacturer has the following quality control check at the end of a production line:
If at least 8 of 10 randomly selected articles meet all specifications, the whole
shipment is approved. If, in reality, 85 % of a particular shipment meets all
specifications, what is the probability that the shipment will make it through the
control check?
binomialCdf(10, .85, 8, 10)
.820196

19. A certain tennis player makes a successful serve 70% of the time. Assume that each
serve is independent of the others. If she serves 6 times, what is the probability that
she gets
binomialPdf(6, .7, 6) = .117649
a) all 6 serves in?
binomialPdf(6, .7, 4) = .324136
b) exactly 4 serves in?
binomialCdf(6, .7, 4, 6) = .74431
c) at least 4 serves in?
d) no more than 4 serves in? binomialCdf(6, .7, 0, 4) = .579825
20. An orchard owner knows he’ll have to use 6% of the apples he harvests for cider
because they will have bruises or blemishes. He expects a tree to produce 300 apples.

a) Describe an appropriate model for the number of cider apples that may come from
a tree. Justify your model.
b) Find the probability there will be no more than a dozen cider apples.
c) Is it likely there will be more than 50 cider apples? Explain.
a) Bi – bruised or not b) binomialCdf(300, .06, 0, 12) c)
nom – 300 apples .084969 binomialCdf(300, .06, 50, 300)
i – 1 bruise does not impact another .000000000021605
al – probability is .06 for each Not very likely
21. An Olympic archer is able to hit a bulls-eye 80% of the time. Assume each shot is
independent of the others. If she shoots 15 arrows, what is the probability of each
result described below?

a) What is the expected number of bulls-eyes for the 15 attempts? What is the
standard deviation? 𝜇𝜇 = 15 ∗ .8 = 12; 𝜎𝜎 = �(15)(. 8)(. 2) = 1.54919
b) What is the probability that she never misses?
binomialPdf(15, .8, 15) = .035184
c) She gets exactly 11 bulls-eyes?
binomialPdf(15, .8, 11) = .187684
d) She gets between 9 and 13 bulls-eyes?
e) She gets less than 8 bulls-eyes? binomialCdf(15, .8, 10, 12) = .540925
f) She gets at least 8 bulls-eyes? binomialCdf(15, .8, 0, 7) = .00424
g) She gets at most 10 bulls-eyes? binomialCdf(15, .8, 8, 15) = .99576
h) She gets between 9 and 13 bulls-eyes inclusive? binomialCdf(15, .8, 0, 10) = .164234

binomialCdf(15, .8, 9, 13) = .814815

22. An airline, believing that 5% of passengers fail to show up for flights, overbook the
flights. Suppose a plane will hold 265 passengers, and the airline sells 275 tickets.
What is the probability the airline will not have enough seats so someone gets bumped
off the flight?
binomialCdf(275, .05, 0, 9) = .115546
OR
binomialCdf(275, .95, 266, 275) = .115546

23. A lecture hall has 200 seats with folding arm tablets (writing surfaces), 30 of which
are designed for left-handers. The average sizes of the classes that meet there is
188, and we can assume that 13% of the students are left-handed. What is the
probability that a right-handed student in one of these classes is forced to use a left
arm tablet? binomialCdf(188, .87, 171, 188) = .061083
OR
binomialCdf(188, .13, 0, 17) = .061083
For 24-29, solve using both binomial calculations AND the normal approximation to the
binomial. Show work!

24. More than 200 billion grocery coupons are distributed each year for discounts
exceeding $84 billion. However, according to a report in USA Today, only 3.2% of the
coupons are redeemed. If a company distributes 5000 coupons, what is the
probability that 5000 ∗ .032 ≥ 10 5000 ∗ .032 ≥ 10
160 ≥ 10 4840 ≥ 10
𝜇𝜇 = 5000 ∗ .032 a. more than 100 are redeemed?
𝜇𝜇 = 160 binomialCdf(5000, .032, 101, 5000) = 1
normCDF(100.5, 5000.5, 160, 12.4451) = .999999
𝜎𝜎 = �(500)(. 032)(. 9682) b. fewer than 200 are redeemed?
𝜎𝜎 = 12.4451 binomialCdf(5000, .032, 0, 199) = .998934
normCDF(-0.5, 199.5, 160, 12.4451) = .999248
c. between 50 and 120 are redeemed?

binomialCdf(5000, .032, 51, 119) = .000349


normCDF(50.5, 119.5, 160, 12.4451) = .000568

25. Suppose that 15% of the cars coming out of an assembly plant have some defect. In a
delivery of 40 cars, what is the probability that exactly 5 cars have defects?
binomialPdf(40, .15, 5) = .16918 40 ∗ .15 ≥ 10 40 ∗ .85 ≥ 10
6 ≥ 10 34 ≥ 10
Can’t do Normal approximation

26. If 60% of the population supports massive federal budget cuts, what is the
probability that in a survey of 250 people, at most 155 people support such cuts?
250 ∗ .6 ≥ 10 250 ∗ .4 ≥ 10
binomialCdf(250, .6, 0, 155) 150 ≥ 10 100 ≥ 10
= .760462
𝜇𝜇 = 250 ∗ .6 = 150; 𝜎𝜎 = �250(. 6)(. 4) = 7.74597
normCDF(-0.5, 155.5, 160, 12.4451) = .761162

27. Assume that a baseball team has an average pitcher, that is, one whose probability of
winning any decision is .5. If this pitcher has 30 decisions in a season, what is the
probability that he will win at least 20 games? Use the normal approximation only.
30 ∗ .5 ≥ 10 30 ∗ .5 ≥ 10
a) .0505 15 ≥ 10 15 ≥ 10
b) .2514 𝜇𝜇 = 30 ∗ .5 = 15; 𝜎𝜎 = �30(. 5)(. 5) = 2.73861
c) .2743 normCDF(19.5, 30.5, 15, 2.73861) = .050174
d) .3333
e) .4300
28. In a test for ESP (extrasensory perception), a subject is told that cards contain a
star, a circle, a wave or a square. As the researcher looks at each of 45 cards in turn,
the subject names the shape on the card without benefit of looking at it. A subject
who is guessing has a probability of 0.25 of guessing correctly on each card. If the
subject does significantly better than guessing, it could be evidence of ESP.
45 ∗ .25 ≥ 10 11.25 ≥ 10 45 ∗ .75 ≥ 10 33.75 ≥ 10
a) What are the mean and standard deviation of this binomial distribution?
𝜇𝜇 = 45 ∗ .25 = 11.25; 𝜎𝜎 = �45(. 25)(. 75) = 2.90474
b) What is the probability the subject guesses between and including 6 to 13
correctly?
binomialCdf(45, .25, 6, 13) = .766137 normCdf(5.5, 13.5, 11.25, 2.90474) = .756832
c) What is the probability the subject guesses between 13 and 20 correctly?
binomialCdf(45, .25, 14, 19) = .212428 normCdf(13.5, 20.5, 11.25, 2.90474) = .217035
d) What is the probability the subject guesses exactly 12 correctly?
binomialPdf(45, .25, 12) = .129149 normCdf(11.5, 12.5, 11.25, 2.90474) = .132229
e) What is the probability the subject guesses less than 15 correctly?
binomialCdf(45, .25, 0, 14) = .867342 normCdf(-0.5, 14.5, 11.25, 2.90474) = .868374
f) What is the probability the subject guesses more than 17 correctly?
binomialCdf(45, .25, 18, 45) = .019068 normCdf(17.5, 45.5, 11.25, 2.90474) = .015712
g) What is the probability the subject guesses between 2 standard deviations of
the mean correctly? 11.25 ± 2(2.90474) (5.44052, 17.0595)
binomialCdf(45, .25, 6, 17) = .962988 normCdf(5.44052, 17.0595, 11.25, 2.90474) = .9545
or .95 by the Empirical Rule
29. Dentists are increasingly concerned about the growing trend of local school districts
to grant soft drink companies the exclusive rights to install soda machines in schools
in return for money. According to the National Soft Drink Association, 62% of schools
nationally have such contracts. Suppose that 30 schools around the country are
randomly selected and asked if they have soft drink contracts.
30 ∗ .62 ≥ 10 18.6 ≥ 10 30 ∗ .38 ≥ 10 11.4 ≥ 10
a) What are the mean and standard deviation of this binomial distribution?
𝜇𝜇 = 30 ∗ .62 = 18.6; 𝜎𝜎 = �30(. 62)(. 38) = 2.65857
b) What is the probability that between and including 18 to 25 answer “Yes”?
binomialCdf(30, .62, 18, 25) = .661782 normCdf(17.5, 25.5, 18.6, 2.65857) = .655749
c) What is the probability that less than 20 answer “Yes”?
binomialCdf(30, .62, 0, 19) = .627035 normCdf(-0.5, 19.5, 18.6, 2.65857) = .632517
d) What is the probability that exactly 17 answer “Yes”?
binomialPdf(30, .62, 17) = .121943 normCdf(16.5, 17.5, 18.6, 2.65857) = .124733
e) What is the probability that between 14 and 23 answer “Yes”?
binomialCdf(30, .62, 15, 22) = .868811 normCdf(14.5, 22.5, 18.6, 2.65857) = .867291
f) What is the probability that those within 2 standard deviations answer “Yes”?
18.6 ± 2(2.65857) (13.2829, 23.9171)
binomialCdf(30, .62, 14, 23) = .942005 normCdf(13.2829, 23.9171, 18.6, 2.65857) = .9545
or .95 by the Empirical Rule
g) What is the probability that between 7 and 13 answer “No”?
binomialCdf(30, .38, 8, 12) = .596781 normCdf(7.5, 12.5, 11.4, 2.65857) = .589279
h) What is the probability that more than 25 answer “Yes”?

binomialCdf(30, .62, 26, 30) = .002947 normCdf(25.5, 30.5, 18.6, 2.65857) = .004721

30. A potential buyer will sample videotapes from a large lot of new videotapes. If she
finds at least one defective one, she’ll reject the entire lot. If ten percent of the lot
is defective, what is the probability that she’ll find a defective tape by the 4th
videotape? geomCdf(.1, 1, 4) = .3439

31. A certain golfer makes her putts 60% of the time.


a. If she putts 10 times, what is the probability that she will make half or less?

binomialCdf(10, .6, 0, 5) = .366897

b. What is the probability that the 3rd putt was the first one she made?
geomPdf(.6, 3) = .096

c. If she putts 8 times, what is the probability that she will make 5 or more putts?

binomialCdf(8, .6, 5, 8) = .594086

d. What is the probability that the 4th putt was the first one she misses?

geomPdf(.4, 4) = .0864
32. A game is played with a spinner on a circle, like the minute hand on a clock. The circle
is marked evenly from 1 to 100. The player spins the spinner and the resulting number
is the number of seconds the player is given to solve a randomly selected mathematics
problem. Suppose there are 30 students playing in the class.
a. What is the probability that 10 of the students received over a minute to solve the
problem?
binomialPdf(30, .4, 10) = .115185

b. What is the probability that exactly half of the students received 30 or less
seconds?
binomialPdf(30, .3, 15) = .010567

c. What is the probability that the fourth student was the first to receive a minute
or less?
geomPdf(.6, 4) = .0384

d. What is the probability that at least half of the students received 45 seconds or
more?
binomialCdf(30, .56, 15, 30) = .801613

e. What is the probability that a minute or more was received by the 10th student?

geomPdf(.41, 1, 10) = .994889

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