Deseasonlized Estimated Demand

Year Month Period Demand Demand Dcap

0 (4862+117.7*Tt)
2003 April 1 4698 4979.8129287997
2003 May 2 4605 5097.5540455251
2003 June 3 4859 5215.2951622506
2003 July 4 4136 5333.036278976
2003 August 5 3872 5450.7773957015
2003 September 6 5938 5568.5185124269
2003 October 7 8790 5904.7 5686.2596291524
2003 November 8 6825 6072.2 5804.0007458778
2003 December 9 4858 6332.0 5921.7418626033
2004 January 10 5907 6534.9 6039.4829793287
2004 February 11 6386 6630.5 6157.2240960541
2004 March 12 9085 6760.3 6274.9652127796
2004 April 13 6492 6940.8 6392.706329505
2004 May 14 6832 7130.1 6510.4474462305
2004 June 15 8867 7261.5 6628.1885629559
2004 July 16 4998 7376.5 6745.9296796814
2004 August 17 5305 7485.2 6863.6707964068
2004 September 18 7618 7508.7 6981.4119131323
2004 October 19 11443 7550.0 7099.1530298577
2004 November 20 8716 7689.8 7216.8941465832
2004 December 21 6119 7811.1 7334.6352633086
2005 January 22 7408 7946.4 7452.3763800341
2005 February 23 7493 8120.2 7570.1174967595
2005 March 24 8541 8271.8 7687.858613485
2005 April 25 8029 8451.0 7805.5997302104
2005 May 26 8650 8598.1 7923.3408469359
2005 June 27 9960 8684.4 8041.0819636613
2005 July 28 7152 8818.5 8158.8230803868
2005 August 29 7322 8948.3 8276.5641971122
2005 September 30 9239 9031.8 8394.3053138377
2005 October 31 14123 9188.5 8512.0464305631
2005 November 32 9566 9358.0 8629.7875472885
2005 December 33 7341 9503.5 8747.528664014
2006 January 34 9404 9688.1 8865.2697807394
2006 February 35 8613 9803.2 8983.0108974649
2006 March 36 9425 9922.8 9100.7520141903
2006 April 37 10905 10086.8 9218.4931309158
2006 May 38 9842 10187.5 9336.2342476412
2006 June 39 12259 10276.0 9453.9753643667
2006 July 40 9285 10376.7 9571.7164810921
2006 August 41 7950 10426.8 9689.4575978176
2006 September 42 11482 10401.6 9807.198714543
2006 October 43 15817 10317.5 9924.9398312685
2006 November 44 10288 10233.7 10042.6809479939
2006 December 45 8743 10168.2 10160.4220647194
2007 January 46 10419 10092.1 10278.1631814448
2007 February 47 8801 10037.2 10395.9042981703
2007 March 48 8631 9978.0 10513.6454148957
2007 April 49 9682 9851.3 10631.3865316211
2007 May 50 9052 9782.4 10749.1276483466
2007 June 51 11477 9779.7 10866.868765072
2007 July 52 8242 9739.0 10984.6098817975
2007 August 53 7674 9697.6 11102.3509985229
2007 September 54 10339 9733.4 11220.0921152484
2007 October 55 13919 9824.4 11337.8332319738
2007 November 56 10531 9976.2 11455.5743486993
2007 December 57 8435 10209.7 11573.3154654247
2008 January 58 9750 10368.0 11691.0565821502
2008 February 59 8477 10490.8 11808.7976988756
2008 March 60 9814 10577.3 11926.5388156011
2008 April 61 10684 10612.6 12044.2799323265
2008 May 62 11693 10542.2 12162.021049052
2008 June 63 14439 10369.4 12279.7621657774
2008 July 64 9081 10290.7 12397.5032825029
2008 August 65 9781 10278.1 12515.2443992283
2008 September 66 10307 10311.6 12632.9855159538
2008 October 67 14800 10369.7 12750.7266326792
2008 November 68 7960 10443.6 12868.4677494047
2008 December 69 6858 10633.2 12986.2088661301
2009 January 70 9438 10900.6 13103.9499828556
2009 February 71 8487 11043.4 13221.691099581
2009 March 72 10609 11311.4 13339.4322163064
2009 April 73 11282 11688.4 13457.1733330319
2009 May 74 12870 11965.1 13574.9144497573
2009 June 75 17811 12311.0 13692.6555664828
2009 July 76 12128 12775.5 13810.3966832082
2009 August 77 10161 13256.0 13928.1377999337
2009 September 78 16359 13634.5 14045.8789166591
2009 October 79 17796 13986.7 14163.6200333846
2009 November 80 11604 14328.3 14281.36115011
2009 December 81 11517 14385.9 14399.1022668355
2010 January 82 15925 14344.5 14516.8433835609
2010 February 83 13532 14498.6 14634.5845002864
2010 March 84 14648 14591.7 14752.3256170118
2010 April 85 15697 14821.8 14870.0667337373
2010 May 86 16653 15278.2 14987.8078504627
2010 June 87 15411 15652.8 15105.5489671882
2010 July 88 13534 15949.5 15223.2900839136
2010 August 89 12454 16262.3 15341.0312006391
2010 September 90 16300 16561.3 15458.7723173645
2010 October 91 23378 16778.7 15576.5134340899
2010 November 92 16975 16918.0 15694.2545508154
2010 December 93 15135 17228.0 15811.9956675408
2011 January 94 19430 17574.0 15929.7367842663
2011 February 95 17534 17772.8 16047.4779009917
2011 March 96 17822 18181.7 16165.2190177172
2011 April 97 17740 18779.5 16282.9601344426
2011 May 98 17952 19043.8 16400.7012511681
2011 June 99 21552 19017.9 16518.4423678935
2011 July 100 15699 18963.8 16636.183484619
2011 August 101 15059 18735.4 16753.9246013444
2011 September 102 23508 18453.4 16871.6657180699
2011 October 103 30519 16989.4068347953
2011 November 104 16175 17107.1479515208
2011 December 105 15315 17224.8890682462
2012 January 106 17950 17342.6301849717
2012 February 107 13534 17460.3713016971
2012 March 108 15054 17578.1124184226
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
 Alpha 0.549388
Beta 0
Gemma 0

D/Dcap Lt Tt St Ft Et Et^2
4772.65 119.7983
0.9434089327 4799.541 119.7983 0.994636234 4866.21 168.21 28294.19
0.9033744339 4731.011 119.7983 1.0062179344 4949.93 344.9269140023 118974.6
0.9316826467 4439.085 119.7983 1.1847216002 5746.86 887.8586829556 788293
0.775543196 4760.528 119.7983 0.8396403364 3827.82 -308.177693217 94973.49
0.7103573892 4895.122 119.7983 0.7890355164 3850.75 -21.2492086335 451.5289
1.0663518469 5262.258 119.7983 1.0865255039 5448.84 -489.161610332 239279.1
1.5458316316 5680.173 119.7983 1.4836215904 7984.94 -805.064735061 648129.2
1.1759130122 6407.776 119.7983 0.9882277846 5731.69 -1093.30677176 1195320
0.8203667287 6251.172 119.7983 0.806378775 5263.70 405.697635438 164590.6
0.9780638542 6133.272 119.7983 0.9947274162 6337.38 430.378628154 185225.8
1.0371556891 6772.294 119.7983 0.8871705236 5547.54 -838.460349704 703015.8
1.4478167913 8104.982 119.7983 0.9983730871 6880.88 -2204.12064479 4858148
1.0155323372 7292.046 119.7983 0.994636234 8180.66 1688.664949713 2851589
1.0493902388 7070.091 119.7983 1.0062179344 7457.93 625.9304361849 391788.9
1.337771235 7351.722 119.7983 1.1847216002 8518.02 -348.983465861 121789.5
0.7408912096 6637.016 119.7983 0.8396403364 6273.39 1275.389743839 1626619
0.7729100298 6738.456 119.7983 0.7890355164 5331.37 26.3662424265 695.1787
1.0911832871 6942.358 119.7983 1.0865255039 7451.67 -166.332058982 27666.35
1.6118824248 7419.658 119.7983 1.4836215904 10477.57 -965.432881404 932060.6
1.2077217461 8242.877 119.7983 0.9882277846 7450.70 -1265.30025769 1600985
0.8342609796 7937.213 119.7983 0.806378775 6743.48 624.4840050436 389980.3
0.9940453383 7722.025 119.7983 0.9947274162 8014.53 606.5299919194 367878.6
0.9898129062 8173.724 119.7983 0.8871705236 6957.03 -535.965712166 287259.2
1.1109725646 8437.13 119.7983 0.9983730871 8280.03 -260.970220573 68105.46
1.0286205132 8290.678 119.7983 0.994636234 8511.03 482.0310102252 232353.9
1.0917112071 8512.702 119.7983 1.0062179344 8462.77 -187.22765074 35054.19
1.2386392832 8508.634 119.7983 1.1847216002 10227.11 267.1089485834 71347.19
0.8765970201 8567.725 119.7983 0.8396403364 7244.78 92.7798023703 8608.092
0.8846666111 9012.849 119.7983 0.7890355164 6854.76 -467.235406194 218308.9
1.1006271102 8786.865 119.7983 1.0865255039 9922.85 683.8542583347 467656.6
1.6591779797 9243.224 119.7983 1.4836215904 13214.12 -908.881910594 826066.3
1.1084861531 9537.141 119.7983 0.9882277846 9252.80 -313.201224958 98095.01
0.8392084533 9352.976 119.7983 0.806378775 7787.15 446.1508399527 199050.6
1.060768621 9462.375 119.7983 0.9947274162 9422.83 18.8278560499 354.4882
0.9588099245 9651.517 119.7983 0.8871705236 8501.02 -111.978133819 12539.1
1.0356287025 9589.492 119.7983 0.9983730871 9755.42 330.4180630673 109176.1
1.1829482156 10398.51 119.7983 0.994636234 9657.21 -1247.78843231 1556976
1.0541723503 10113.34 119.7983 1.0062179344 10583.71 741.7068749413 550129.1
1.2967031886 10296.01 119.7983 1.1847216002 12123.42 -135.582347177 18382.57
0.9700454478 10768.79 119.7983 0.8396403364 8745.53 -539.467606668 291025.3
0.8204793632 10441.94 119.7983 0.7890355164 8591.48 641.4817936582 411498.9
1.1707726471 10564.97 119.7983 1.0865255039 11475.60 -6.404789064 41.02132
1.5936620543 10671.75 119.7983 1.4836215904 15852.16 35.1591135022 1236.163
1.0244276457 10582.24 119.7983 0.9882277846 10664.51 376.5107683185 141760.4
0.8604957495 10779.09 119.7983 0.806378775 8629.89 -113.106156647 12793
1.013702528 10665.59 119.7983 0.9947274162 10841.43 422.4273930537 178444.9
0.8465833993 10310.12 119.7983 0.8871705236 9568.48 767.4751078522 589018
0.8209331454 9449.341 119.7983 0.9983730871 10412.95 1781.948643248 3175341
0.9106996506 9659.828 119.7983 0.994636234 9517.81 -164.187351828 26957.49
0.8421148484 9349.146 119.7983 1.0062179344 9840.44 788.4355691295 621630.6
1.056146002 9589.021 119.7983 1.1847216002 11218.06 -258.936863774 67048.3
0.7503225047 9767.762 119.7983 0.8396403364 8151.92 -90.0840233554 8115.131
0.691204953 9798.69 119.7983 0.7890355164 7801.64 127.6362787257 16291.02
0.9214719357 9697.176 119.7983 1.0865255039 10776.69 437.690501552 191573
1.2276596167 9577.879 119.7983 1.4836215904 14564.67 645.6744535078 416895.5
0.9192904414 10224.42 119.7983 0.9882277846 9583.51 -947.485424213 897728.6
0.7288317704 10408.01 119.7983 0.806378775 8341.35 -93.64554325 8769.488
0.8339708162 10128.88 119.7983 0.9947274162 10472.30 722.3042212967 521723.4
0.7178546213 9867.635 119.7983 0.8871705236 9092.33 615.3292210474 378630.1
0.822870755 9900.937 119.7983 0.9983730871 9971.18 157.1844950323 24706.97
0.8870600866 10416.78 119.7983 0.994636234 9966.99 -717.013414157 514108.2
0.9614355996 11132.2 119.7983 1.0062179344 10602.09 -1090.90782014 1190080
1.1758371054 11766.05 119.7983 1.1847216002 13330.49 -1108.50948732 1228793
0.7324861944 11297.73 119.7983 0.8396403364 9979.84 898.8365930046 807907.2
0.7815268874 11955.17 119.7983 0.7890355164 9008.83 -772.167611179 596242.8
0.8158799824 10652.73 119.7983 1.0865255039 13119.76 2812.75840083 7911610
1.1607181635 10334.7 119.7983 1.4836215904 15982.36 1182.355996459 1397966
0.6185662625 9136.146 119.7983 0.9882277846 10331.43 2371.42562577 5623659
0.5280986984 8843.213 119.7983 0.806378775 7463.80 605.7969474544 366989.9
0.7202408444 9251.448 119.7983 0.9947274162 8915.75 -522.246704879 272741.6
0.641899734 9478.444 119.7983 0.8871705236 8313.89 -173.106277136 29965.78
0.7953112117 10163.04 119.7983 0.9983730871 9582.63 -1026.37316176 1053442
0.8383632819 10865.19 119.7983 0.994636234 10227.68 -1054.31834186 1111587
0.9480722731 11976.9 119.7983 1.0062179344 11053.29 -1816.70816146 3300429
1.3007703227 13710.37 119.7983 1.1847216002 14331.22 -3479.78311409 12108891
0.8781789747 14167.55 119.7983 0.8396403364 11612.36 -515.63580639 265880.3
0.7295304043 13512.93 119.7983 0.7890355164 11273.23 1112.226879852 1237049
1.1646832567 14414.79 119.7983 1.0865255039 14812.31 -1546.69130323 2392254
1.2564584448 13139.36 119.7983 1.4836215904 21563.84 3767.835896716 14196587
0.812527593 12425.78 119.7983 0.9882277846 13103.06 1499.064969243 2247196
0.7998415309 13499.75 119.7983 0.806378775 10116.48 -1400.51532765 1961443
1.0970015712 14932.51 119.7983 0.9947274162 13547.74 -2377.26334981 5651381
0.9246589816 15162.56 119.7983 0.8871705236 13353.96 -178.036613996 31697.04
0.9929281918 14946.96 119.7983 0.9983730871 15257.49 609.4932086612 371482
1.0556105955 15459.51 119.7983 0.994636234 14985.95 -711.05385409 505597.6
1.1111031157 16112.65 119.7983 1.0062179344 15676.18 -976.818941458 954175.2
1.0202211143 14461.04 119.7983 1.1847216002 19230.93 3819.927465548 14591846
0.8890325235 15425.78 119.7983 0.8396403364 12242.66 -1291.34049398 1667560
0.8118098345 15676.47 119.7983 0.7890355164 12266.01 -187.987443419 35339.28
1.0544174961 15359.88 119.7983 1.0865255039 17163.05 863.0469032498 744850
 1.500849346 15632.25 119.7983 1.4836215904 22965.98 -412.017737826 169758.6
1.0816060072 16535.02 119.7983 0.9882277846 15566.61 -1408.39079084 1983565
0.9571846792 17816.37 119.7983 0.806378775 13430.09 -1704.91150665 2906723
1.2197313906 18813.44 119.7983 0.9947274162 17841.60 -1588.39738311 2523006
1.0926327556 19389.63 119.7983 0.8871705236 16797.01 -736.985328709 543147.4
1.1024904754 18598.33 119.7983 0.9983730871 19477.69 1655.685004625 2741293
1.089482493 18233.31 119.7983 0.994636234 18617.73 877.7282881658 770406.9
1.0945873426 18071.8 119.7983 1.0062179344 18467.23 515.2309928316 265463
1.3047235036 18191.61 119.7983 1.1847216002 21551.98 -0.020494365 0.00042
0.9436659565 18523.41 119.7983 0.8396403364 15375.00 -324.004815715 104979.1
0.8988341752 18886.1 119.7983 0.7890355164 14710.15 -348.849101846 121695.7
1.393341973 20450.81 119.7983 1.0865255039 20650.39 -2857.60588478 8165911
1.7963546519 20570.61 119.7983 1.4836215904 30519.00 0.0003698782 1.37E-07
0.9455112007 18315.56 119.7983 0.9882277846 20446.84 4271.835677097 18248580
0.889120385 18741.34 119.7983 0.806378775 14865.88 -449.121738154 201710.3
1.0350217821 18412.84 119.7983 0.9947274162 18761.69 811.6931541311 658845.8
0.7751267007 16732.08 119.7983 0.8871705236 16441.61 2907.612224589 8454209
0.8564059463 15877.62 119.7983 0.9983730871 16824.46 1770.45868704 3134524
0.994636234 15911.61
1.0062179344 16217.43
1.1847216002 19236.34
0.8396403364 13733.84
0.7890355164 13000.63
1.0865255039 18032.42
1.4836215904 24800.53
0.9882277846 16637.81
0.806378775 13672.80
0.9947274162 16985.57
0.8871705236 15255.25
0.9983730871 17287.03

MSE
(0.655,0,0) 1518026
(0.623,0,0) 1519289
(0.549,0,0) 1531843
 MSE ABS Dev MAD Percent Error MAPE
April
28294.19 168.2088 168.2088 3.5804335842 3.580434 May
73634.38 344.9269 256.5678 7.4902695766 5.535352 June
311853.9 887.8587 466.9981 18.272456945 9.781053 July
257633.8 308.1777 427.293 7.4511047683 9.198566 August
206197.4 21.24921 346.0843 0.5487915453 7.468611 September
211711 489.1616 369.9305 8.2378176209 7.596812 October
274056.4 805.0647 432.0925 9.158870706 7.819964 November
389214.4 1093.307 514.7443 16.019146839 8.844861 December
364256.2 405.6976 502.628 8.3511246488 8.790002 January
346353.1 430.3786 495.4031 7.2859087211 8.639592 February
378777 838.4603 526.5901 13.1296641043 9.047781 March
752057.9 2204.121 666.3843 24.2610968056 10.31556
913560.3 1688.665 745.0213 26.0114748878 11.52294
876290.9 625.9304 736.5148 9.1617452603 11.35428
825990.8 348.9835 710.6794 3.9357557896 10.85971
876030.1 1275.39 745.9738 25.5180020776 11.77585
824539.8 26.36624 703.6439 0.4970073973 11.11239
780269.1 166.3321 673.7933 2.1834084928 10.61634
788258.1 965.4329 689.1427 8.4368861435 10.50163
828894.4 1265.3 717.9506 14.5169832227 10.7024
807993.7 624.484 713.4998 10.2056546011 10.67874
787988.5 606.53 708.6375 8.1874998909 10.5655
766217.7 535.9657 701.1301 7.152885522 10.41713
737129.7 260.9702 682.7901 3.0554995969 10.1104
716938.6 482.031 674.7597 6.003624489 9.946125
690712.3 187.2277 656.0085 2.1644815114 9.646831
667772.9 267.1089 641.6048 2.6818167528 9.388867
644231.3 92.7798 622.0039 1.2972567446 9.099881
629544.3 467.2354 616.667 6.3812538404 9.006135
624148 683.8543 618.9066 7.4018211747 8.952658
630661.5 908.8819 628.2607 6.4354734164 8.871459
614018.8 313.2012 618.4151 3.2741085611 8.696541
601444 446.1508 613.1949 6.077521318 8.617177
583764.9 18.82786 595.7135 0.2002111447 8.369619
567444.2 111.9781 581.8925 1.3001060469 8.167633
554714.5 330.4181 574.9071 3.5057619424 8.038137
581802.7 1247.788 593.0931 11.4423515113 8.130143
580969.1 741.7069 597.004 7.5361397576 8.114511
566543.8 135.5823 585.1727 1.1059821125 7.934805
559655.9 539.4676 584.03 5.8100980793 7.881687
556042.3 641.4818 585.4313 8.0689533793 7.886255
542804.2 6.404789 571.645 0.0557811275 7.699815
530209.6 35.15911 559.1686 0.2222868654 7.525919
521381.2 376.5108 555.0172 3.6597080902 7.438051
510079.2 113.1062 545.197 1.2936767316 7.301509
502869.8 422.4274 542.5281 4.0543947889 7.23092
504702.7 767.4751 547.3142 8.7203170987 7.262609
560341 1781.949 573.0357 20.6459117512 7.541428
549455.6 164.1874 564.6919 1.6957999569 7.422129
550899.1 788.4356 569.1668 8.7100703616 7.447888
541411.9 258.9369 563.0838 2.2561371767 7.346089
531156.2 90.08402 553.9877 1.0929874224 7.225837
521441.7 127.6363 545.9433 1.6632301111 7.120882
515333 437.6905 543.9386 4.2333929931 7.06741
513543.3 645.6745 545.7884 4.6387991487 7.023254
520403.7 947.4854 552.9615 8.997107817 7.058501
511427.7 93.64554 544.9034 1.1102020539 6.954145
511605.2 722.3042 547.962 7.4082484236 6.961974
509351.4 615.3292 549.1038 7.258808789 6.967005
501274 157.1845 542.5718 1.6016353682 6.877582
501484.4 717.0134 545.4315 6.711095228 6.874853
512590.7 1090.908 554.2295 9.3295802629 6.914446
523959 1108.509 563.0276 7.6771901608 6.926553
528395.7 898.8366 568.2746 9.8979913336 6.972981
529439.5 772.1676 571.4115 7.894567132 6.98716
641290.6 2812.758 605.3713 27.2897875311 7.294775
652584.3 1182.356 613.983 7.988891868 7.305135
725688.3 2371.426 639.8277 29.7917792182 7.635821
720489.8 605.7969 639.3345 8.8334346377 7.653178
714093.4 522.2467 637.6618 5.5334467565 7.622896
704457.8 173.1063 631.1188 2.0396639229 7.544259
709304.8 1026.373 636.6084 9.6745514352 7.573846
714815.5 1054.318 642.3305 9.3451368716 7.59811
749756.2 1816.708 658.2005 14.1158365304 7.686188
901211.3 3479.783 695.8216 19.5372697439 7.844202
892851.7 515.6358 693.4507 4.2516144986 7.796931
897321.8 1112.227 698.8894 10.9460375933 7.837829
916487.6 1546.691 709.7586 9.454681235 7.858558
1084590 3767.836 748.4684 21.1723752344 8.027087
1099123 1499.065 757.8509 12.918519211 8.08823
1109769 1400.515 765.785 12.1604178836 8.138504
1165154 2377.263 785.4372 14.9278703285 8.221301
1151498 178.0366 778.1191 1.3156711055 8.138101
1142212 609.4932 776.1117 4.1609312443 8.090753
1134723 711.0539 775.3463 4.5298710205 8.048861
1132623 976.8189 777.689 5.8657235421 8.023475
1287327 3819.927 812.6573 24.7870187888 8.21616
1291648 1291.34 818.0968 9.5414548099 8.23122
1277532 187.9874 811.017 1.5094543393 8.155694
1271613 863.0469 811.5951 5.2947662776 8.123906
1259505 412.0177 807.2041 1.7624165362 8.054
1267375 1408.391 813.7387 8.2968529652 8.05664
1285003 1704.912 823.3212 11.2646944608 8.091135
1298173 1588.397 831.4604 8.174973665 8.092027
1290225 736.9853 830.4659 4.20317856 8.051092
1305340 1655.685 839.0619 9.2901189801 8.063998
1299826 877.7283 839.4605 4.947735559 8.031872
1289271 515.231 836.1521 2.8700478656 7.9792
1276248 0.020494 827.7063 9.50926363E-05 7.898603
1264535 324.0048 822.6693 2.0638563967 7.840255
1253220 348.8491 817.978 2.3165489199 7.785565
1320992 2857.606 837.9743 12.1558868674 7.828412
1308166 0.00037 829.8387 0.000001212 7.752408
1471055 4271.836 862.9348 26.4101123777 7.931809
1458966 449.1217 858.9937 2.9325611371 7.884197
1451418 811.6932 858.5475 4.5219674325 7.852478
1516864 2907.612 877.6976 21.4837610802 7.979873
1531843 1770.459 885.9639 11.760719324 8.014881

MAD MAPE
885 8.04
884.8 8.03
886 8.01
Sesonality
0.994636234
1.006217934
1.1847216
0.839640336
0.789035516
1.086525504
1.48362159
0.988227785
0.806378775
0.994727416
0.887170524
0.998373087
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.934749
R Square 0.873756
Adjusted R 0.872413
Standard E 1253.333
Observatio 96

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.02E+09 1.02E+09 650.592 5.01E-44
Residual 94 1.48E+08 1570843
Total 95 1.17E+09

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 4862.072 282.23 17.22734 7.74E-31 4301.698 5422.446 4301.698 5422.446
X Variable 117.7411 4.616085 25.50671 5.01E-44 108.5758 126.9065 108.5758 126.9065
 Deseasonlized Estimated Demand
Year Month Period Demand Demand Dcap
0 (4862+117.7*Tt)
2003 April 1 4698 4979.8129287997
2003 May 2 4605 5097.5540455251
2003 June 3 4859 5215.2951622506
2003 July 4 4136 5333.036278976
2003 August 5 3872 5450.7773957015
2003 September 6 5938 5568.5185124269
2003 October 7 8790 5904.7 5686.2596291524
2003 November 8 6825 6072.2 5804.0007458778
2003 December 9 4858 6332.0 5921.7418626033
2004 January 10 5907 6534.9 6039.4829793287
2004 February 11 6386 6630.5 6157.2240960541
2004 March 12 9085 6760.3 6274.9652127796
2004 April 13 6492 6940.8 6392.706329505
2004 May 14 6832 7130.1 6510.4474462305
2004 June 15 8867 7261.5 6628.1885629559
2004 July 16 4998 7376.5 6745.9296796814
2004 August 17 5305 7485.2 6863.6707964068
2004 September 18 7618 7508.7 6981.4119131323
2004 October 19 11443 7550.0 7099.1530298577
2004 November 20 8716 7689.8 7216.8941465832
2004 December 21 6119 7811.1 7334.6352633086
2005 January 22 7408 7946.4 7452.3763800341
2005 February 23 7493 8120.2 7570.1174967595
2005 March 24 8541 8271.8 7687.858613485
2005 April 25 8029 8451.0 7805.5997302104
2005 May 26 8650 8598.1 7923.3408469359
2005 June 27 9960 8684.4 8041.0819636613
2005 July 28 7152 8818.5 8158.8230803868
2005 August 29 7322 8948.3 8276.5641971122
2005 September 30 9239 9031.8 8394.3053138377
2005 October 31 14123 9188.5 8512.0464305631
2005 November 32 9566 9358.0 8629.7875472885
2005 December 33 7341 9503.5 8747.528664014
2006 January 34 9404 9688.1 8865.2697807394
2006 February 35 8613 9803.2 8983.0108974649
2006 March 36 9425 9922.8 9100.7520141903
2006 April 37 10905 10086.8 9218.4931309158
2006 May 38 9842 10187.5 9336.2342476412
2006 June 39 12259 10276.0 9453.9753643667
2006 July 40 9285 10376.7 9571.7164810921
2006 August 41 7950 10426.8 9689.4575978176
2006 September 42 11482 10401.6 9807.198714543
2006 October 43 15817 10317.5 9924.9398312685
2006 November 44 10288 10233.7 10042.6809479939
2006 December 45 8743 10168.2 10160.4220647194
2007 January 46 10419 10092.1 10278.1631814448
2007 February 47 8801 10037.2 10395.9042981703
2007 March 48 8631 9978.0 10513.6454148957
2007 April 49 9682 9851.3 10631.3865316211
2007 May 50 9052 9782.4 10749.1276483466
2007 June 51 11477 9779.7 10866.868765072
2007 July 52 8242 9739.0 10984.6098817975
2007 August 53 7674 9697.6 11102.3509985229
2007 September 54 10339 9733.4 11220.0921152484
2007 October 55 13919 9824.4 11337.8332319738
2007 November 56 10531 9976.2 11455.5743486993
2007 December 57 8435 10209.7 11573.3154654247
2008 January 58 9750 10368.0 11691.0565821502
2008 February 59 8477 10490.8 11808.7976988756
2008 March 60 9814 10577.3 11926.5388156011
2008 April 61 10684 10612.6 12044.2799323265
2008 May 62 11693 10542.2 12162.021049052
2008 June 63 14439 10369.4 12279.7621657774
2008 July 64 9081 10290.7 12397.5032825029
2008 August 65 9781 10278.1 12515.2443992283
2008 September 66 10307 10311.6 12632.9855159538
2008 October 67 14800 10369.7 12750.7266326792
2008 November 68 7960 10443.6 12868.4677494047
2008 December 69 6858 10633.2 12986.2088661301
2009 January 70 9438 10900.6 13103.9499828556
2009 February 71 8487 11043.4 13221.691099581
2009 March 72 10609 11311.4 13339.4322163064
2009 April 73 11282 11688.4 13457.1733330319
2009 May 74 12870 11965.1 13574.9144497573
2009 June 75 17811 12311.0 13692.6555664828
2009 July 76 12128 12775.5 13810.3966832082
2009 August 77 10161 13256.0 13928.1377999337
2009 September 78 16359 13634.5 14045.8789166591
2009 October 79 17796 13986.7 14163.6200333846
2009 November 80 11604 14328.3 14281.36115011
2009 December 81 11517 14385.9 14399.1022668355
2010 January 82 15925 14344.5 14516.8433835609
2010 February 83 13532 14498.6 14634.5845002864
2010 March 84 14648 14591.7 14752.3256170118
2010 April 85 15697 14821.8 14870.0667337373
2010 May 86 16653 15278.2 14987.8078504627
2010 June 87 15411 15652.8 15105.5489671882
2010 July 88 13534 15949.5 15223.2900839136
2010 August 89 12454 16262.3 15341.0312006391
2010 September 90 16300 16561.3 15458.7723173645
2010 October 91 23378 16778.7 15576.5134340899
2010 November 92 16975 16918.0 15694.2545508154
2010 December 93 15135 17228.0 15811.9956675408
2011 January 94 19430 17574.0 15929.7367842663
2011 February 95 17534 17772.8 16047.4779009917
2011 March 96 17822 18181.7 16165.2190177172
2011 April 97 17740 18779.5 16282.9601344426
2011 May 98 17952 19043.8 16400.7012511681
2011 June 99 21552 19017.9 16518.4423678935
2011 July 100 15699 18963.8 16636.183484619
2011 August 101 15059 18735.4 16753.9246013444
2011 September 102 23508 18453.4 16871.6657180699
2011 October 103 30519 16989.4068347953
2011 November 104 16175 17107.1479515208
2011 December 105 15315 17224.8890682462
2012 January 106 17950 17342.6301849717
2012 February 107 13534 17460.3713016971
2012 March 108 15054 17578.1124184226
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
 Alpha 0.1
Beta 0.1
Gemma 0.1

D/Dcap Lt Tt St Ft Et Et^2 MSE

4772.65 119.7983
0.9434089327 4875.539 118.1071 0.994636234 4866.21 168.21 28294.19 28294.19
0.9033744339 4951.936 113.9361 1.0062179344 5024.70 419.6964 176145.1 102219.6
0.9316826467 4969.423 104.2912 1.1847216002 6001.65 1142.648 1305644 503361.2
0.775543196 5058.935 102.8132 0.8396403364 4260.10 124.0954 15399.67 381370.8
0.7103573892 5136.299 100.2683 0.7890355164 4072.80 200.8027 40321.71 313161
1.0663518469 5259.423 102.5539 1.0865255039 5689.66 -248.336 61670.74 271246
1.5458316316 5418.249 108.1811 1.4836215904 7955.15 -834.855 696982.3 332065.5
1.1759130122 5664.417 121.9798 0.9882277846 5461.37 -1363.63 1859483 522992.6
0.8203667287 5810.204 124.3605 0.806378775 4666.03 -191.972 36853.4 468977.1
0.9780638542 5934.939 124.3979 0.9947274162 5903.27 -3.72644 13.88632 422080.8
1.0371556891 6173.219 135.7862 0.8871705236 5375.66 -1010.34 1020777 476507.8
1.4478167913 6588.086 163.6942 0.9983730871 6298.74 -2786.26 7763237 1083735
1.0155323372 6731.347 161.6509 0.9915311848 6694.60 202.6002 41046.84 1003528
1.0493902388 6887.862 161.1374 0.9985900739 6883.28 51.27899 2629.535 932035.6
1.337771235 7105.852 166.8226 1.1640273842 8205.23 -661.771 437941 899096
0.7408912096 7142.231 153.7782 0.8374326411 6090.37 1092.375 1193283 917482.6
0.7729100298 7241.76 148.3533 0.7855169828 5731.14 426.1391 181594.6 874195.1
1.0911832871 7349.504 144.2924 1.0907750638 8060.95 442.951 196205.6 836529
1.6118824248 7508.563 145.769 1.4974889716 11221.88 -221.122 48895.07 795074.6
1.2077217461 7751.959 155.5318 1.0098940155 7730.06 -985.936 972070.1 803924.4
0.8342609796 7872.779 152.0605 0.8093524256 6399.95 280.9472 78931.35 769400.9
0.9940453383 7967.04 146.2806 0.9947839255 7982.98 574.981 330603.2 749455.5
0.9898129062 8132.79 148.2275 0.9019003038 7317.41 -175.594 30833.27 718211.1
1.1109725646 8276.989 147.8247 1.0364362338 8582.75 41.74611 1742.738 688358.2
1.0286205132 8394.308 144.7742 0.9888223631 8330.64 301.6444 90989.35 664463.5
1.0917112071 8551.977 146.0636 0.9979200389 8521.32 -128.678 16558.1 639544.1
1.2386392832 8677.77 144.0365 1.1724091244 10197.66 237.6626 56483.51 617949.2
0.8765970201 8807.937 142.6496 0.8236675116 7266.24 114.2352 13049.67 596345.7
0.8846666111 8993.98 146.989 0.7802209603 6983.44 -338.565 114626 579734.6
1.1006271102 9078.118 140.7038 1.0853508085 9921.16 682.1582 465339.8 575921.5
1.6591779797 9238.385 142.6602 1.5001394132 13829.52 -293.483 86131.99 560121.8
1.1084861531 9379.553 142.5109 1.0213407022 9581.24 15.24346 232.3631 542625.3
0.8392084533 9480.493 138.3538 0.806140694 7676.12 335.1231 112307.5 529585.3
1.060768621 9608.506 137.3197 0.9882886278 9506.20 102.1964 10444.11 514316.5
0.9588099245 9724.173 135.1545 0.9038434827 8808.70 195.7007 38298.75 500716
1.0356287025 9783.16 127.5377 1.0359823066 10214.09 789.0891 622661.6 504103.4
1.1829482156 10026.07 139.0753 0.9855882675 9767.87 -1137.13 1293072 525426.8
1.0541723503 10133.55 135.9153 0.999274234 10157.77 315.7711 99711.4 514223.8
1.2967031886 10290.35 138.0034 1.1699442474 12014.70 -244.3 59682.39 502568.9
0.9700454478 10514.39 146.6075 0.8225002503 8577.32 -707.681 500811.9 502525
0.8204793632 10609.43 141.4512 0.7836088728 8354.05 404.0513 163257.4 494250.1
1.1707726471 10740.34 140.3963 1.0785879267 11595.77 113.7743 12944.59 482790.5
1.5936620543 10845.02 136.8253 1.5029985088 16353.72 536.7246 288073.3 478262.2
1.0244276457 10891.11 127.7516 1.021194436 11214.60 926.6015 858590.4 486906
0.8604957495 11005.82 126.4477 0.8029593107 8847.70 104.6979 10961.64 476329.5
1.013702528 11074.31 120.6519 0.9873313845 10991.24 572.2403 327458.9 473093.1
0.8465833993 11051.15 106.2708 0.9020322171 10098.22 1297.218 1682776 498831.1
0.8209331454 10880.68 78.59668 1.0287230956 11477.90 2846.9 8104841 657289.6
0.9106996506 10835.64 66.23265 0.9957958505 10913.21 1231.206 1515867 674811.6
0.8421148484 10720.09 48.05461 0.9964697474 10863.39 1811.386 3281119 726937.7
1.056146002 10670.53 38.29301 1.1720809087 12621.14 1144.139 1309054 738351.8
0.7503225047 10632.68 30.67883 0.8285577833 8872.88 630.8791 398008.4 731806.7
0.691204953 10580.64 22.40697 0.7801812991 8319.35 645.3545 416482.4 725857.2
0.9214719357 10502.16 12.3181 1.0776345407 11426.21 1087.212 1182030 734304.8
1.2276596167 10391.87 0.056787 1.4985443717 15756.41 1837.412 3376084 782337.2
0.9192904414 10391.76 0.04099 1.0135373529 10532.60 1.601098 2.563514 768366.9
0.7288317704 10404.23 1.283979 0.8021031451 8335.30 -99.7005 9940.195 755061.2
0.8339708162 10357.15 -3.55283 0.9826808363 10225.30 475.304 225913.9 745938
0.7178546213 10269.14 -11.9984 0.8914677398 9229.90 752.8986 566856.2 742902.7
0.822870755 10207.78 -16.9351 1.0051748484 10310.22 496.2226 246236.9 734624.9
0.8870600866 10255.8 -10.4392 0.985569551 10043.78 -640.217 409877.7 729301.2
0.9614355996 10412.45 6.270009 0.981262347 10053.39 -1639.61 2688330 760898.4
1.1758371054 10618.99 26.29663 1.1624307315 12111.04 -2327.96 5419377 834842.5
0.7324861944 10683.87 30.1548 0.8232177271 8763.39 -317.612 100877.1 823374.3
0.7815268874 10905.19 49.27122 0.7746918495 8300.07 -1480.93 2193165 844448
0.8158799824 10823.8 36.20545 1.0683174992 11702.84 1395.84 1948368 861174.1
1.1607181635 10772.23 27.42792 1.4826312409 16101.38 1301.384 1693601 873598.4
0.6185662625 10505.07 -2.03078 1.0135234863 10945.71 2985.708 8914450 991846.2
0.5280986984 10306.82 -21.6528 0.8029655869 8433.58 1575.58 2482454 1013449
0.7202408444 10221.14 -28.0557 0.9785506117 10064.56 626.5574 392574.2 1004580
0.641899734 10132.9 -34.0741 0.8848692458 9019.55 532.5458 283605 994425
0.7953112117 10149 -29.0571 1.0007997493 10106.90 -502.098 252102.3 984114.9
0.8383632819 10246.17 -16.4334 0.9911877881 10030.76 -1251.24 1565604 992080.5
0.9480722731 10499.67 10.55944 0.995434332 10183.04 -2686.96 7219778 1076239
1.3007703227 10965.85 56.1219 1.182161045 12424.78 -5386.22 29011324 1448706
0.8781789747 11388.25 92.7492 0.8258932598 9102.98 -3025.02 9150772 1550049
0.7295304043 11624.15 107.0639 0.7869139268 9034.56 -1126.44 1268873 1546398
1.1646832567 12106.19 144.5623 1.0567110806 12396.50 -3962.5 15701418 1727872
1.2564584448 12234.85 142.9714 1.4717584155 18030.15 234.1527 54827.49 1706695
0.812527593 12314.6 136.6492 0.9879440614 12228.59 624.5911 390114 1690237
0.7998415309 12665.43 158.068 0.7892074899 9826.62 -1690.38 2857398 1704647
1.0970015712 13177.78 193.4964 0.9730335975 12477.70 -3447.3 11883898 1828784
0.9246589816 13571.64 213.532 0.8801391958 11768.59 -1763.41 3109620 1844216
0.9929281918 13863.8 221.395 1.00525229 13857.57 -790.427 624775.2 1829699
1.0556105955 14242.96 237.1718 1.0021783956 14115.88 -1581.12 2499950 1837584
1.1111031157 14667.23 255.8811 1.0184661794 14747.53 -1905.47 3630827 1858436
1.0202211143 14687.44 232.3138 1.2263673103 18301.21 2890.211 8353322 1933089
0.8890325235 15020.38 242.3774 0.8497996737 12678.80 -855.202 731370.9 1919434
0.8118098345 15301.78 246.2787 0.7956354145 12143.59 -310.406 96351.88 1898949
1.0544174961 15493.94 240.8669 1.0861691546 16887.82 587.8171 345528.9 1881689
 1.500849346 15751.62 242.549 1.4700359791 23130.73 -247.274 61144.24 1861683
1.0816060072 16120.95 255.2263 0.9833792997 15728.34 -1246.66 1554165 1858341
0.9571846792 16627.55 280.3642 0.8012192834 13120.91 -2014.09 4056578 1881978
1.2197313906 17166.8 306.2523 0.9965775598 16850.05 -2579.95 6656148 1932767
1.0926327556 17691.81 328.1281 0.8918332177 15583.05 -1950.95 3806225 1952487
1.1024904754 17981.83 324.3172 1.0103835278 18207.05 385.045 148259.7 1933693
1.089482493 18228.2 316.5229 1.0121693704 18528.92 788.9172 622390.3 1920175
1.0945873426 18432.89 305.3401 1.0301584083 19104.00 1152.002 1327108 1914123
1.3047235036 18647.55 296.2714 1.2086570002 22648.10 1096.099 1201433 1906924
0.9436659565 18885.74 290.4636 0.8549239233 16195.52 496.5242 246536.2 1890320
0.8988341752 19146.95 287.5383 0.7974611202 15292.28 233.2775 54418.4 1872143
1.393341973 19662.17 310.3063 1.0827546873 21042.79 -2465.21 6077283 1913370
1.7963546519 20049.31 317.9894 1.4714488255 29388.48 -1130.52 1278082 1907202
0.9455112007 19963.85 277.6443 0.9903391604 20170.53 3995.531 15964270 2042366
0.889120385 20103.14 263.8097 0.8121209817 16438.54 1123.539 1262339 2034937
1.0350217821 20107.3 237.8447 1.0101034146 20572.73 2622.729 6878708 2080633
0.7751267007 19811.48 184.4778 0.901757921 18346.40 4812.399 23159182 2277629
0.8564059463 19489.14 133.7959 1.0084563567 20165.05 5111.051 26122839 2498418
1.0082741669 19785.30
1.024533672 20241.44
1.2033668187 23935.60
0.8525577374 17071.89
0.7963646022 16053.21
1.0940387576 22200.14
1.4765236676 30159.04
0.9723267084 19990.56
0.8070909983 16701.38
0.9983641172 20793.03
0.8798960564 18443.41
0.9848537455 20775.18
ABS Dev MAD Percent Error MAPE Sesonality
April 0.994636234
168.2088 168.2088 3.5804335842 3.580434 May 1.006217934
419.6964 293.9526 9.1139284567 6.347181 June 1.1847216
1142.648 576.8511 23.5161145497 12.07016 July 0.839640336
124.0954 463.6621 3.0003725739 9.802712 August 0.789035516
200.8027 411.0903 5.1860195183 8.879374 September 1.086525504
248.3359 383.9645 4.1821478585 8.096503 October 1.48362159
834.8547 448.3774 9.4977779009 8.296685 November 0.988227785
1363.629 562.7838 19.9799051817 9.757087 December 0.806378775
191.9724 521.5825 3.951675404 9.112042 January 0.994727416
3.726435 469.7969 0.0630850745 8.207146 February 0.887170524
1010.335 518.9368 15.8210957843 8.899323 March 0.998373087
2786.259 707.8802 30.6687784991 10.71344
202.6002 669.0125 3.1207670443 10.12939
51.27899 624.8887 0.7505706937 9.459477
661.7711 627.3476 7.463303721 9.326398
1092.375 656.4118 21.8562390192 10.10951
426.1391 642.8663 8.0327830313 9.987353
442.951 631.7599 5.8145308466 9.755529
221.1223 610.1474 1.93238045 9.343785
985.9361 628.9368 11.3117959086 9.442185
280.9472 612.3659 4.5913913784 9.211195
574.981 610.6666 7.7616232148 9.145305
175.5941 591.7504 2.343441284 8.849572
41.74611 568.8335 0.4887731528 8.501206
301.6444 558.146 3.756936149 8.311435
128.6783 541.628 1.4876101972 8.04898
237.6626 530.37 2.3861706963 7.839246
114.2352 515.5081 1.5972476275 7.616318
338.5646 509.4066 4.6239366466 7.513132
682.1582 515.1649 7.3834635343 7.50881
293.4825 508.0139 2.0780465981 7.333624
15.24346 492.6148 0.1593504186 7.109428
335.1231 487.8423 4.5650881426 7.032327
102.1964 476.4998 1.0867334854 6.857456
195.7007 468.477 2.2721545198 6.726448
789.0891 477.3829 8.3722982372 6.772166
1137.133 495.214 10.4276301354 6.870962
315.7711 490.4918 3.2084039378 6.774579
244.2998 484.1792 1.9928199212 6.65197
707.6806 489.7667 7.6217622691 6.676215
404.0513 487.6761 5.0824059286 6.637341
113.7743 478.7737 0.9908925983 6.502902
536.7246 480.1214 3.3933402101 6.430587
926.6015 490.2686 9.0066245576 6.489133
104.6979 481.7004 1.1975049672 6.371541
572.2403 483.6687 5.4922762532 6.352427
1297.218 500.9782 14.7394440879 6.530874
2846.9 549.8516 32.9845929127 7.081993
1231.206 563.7568 12.7164378965 7.196982
1811.386 588.7094 20.0108914922 7.45326
1144.139 599.6001 9.968972711 7.502588
630.8791 600.2017 7.6544416243 7.505508
645.3545 601.0536 8.4096228925 7.522567
1087.212 610.0565 10.5156378976 7.577994
1837.412 632.3721 13.2007495761 7.680226
1.601098 621.1083 0.015203664 7.54335
99.70053 611.9608 1.181986073 7.431748
475.304 609.6047 4.8749126546 7.387664
752.8986 612.0334 8.8816628318 7.412986
496.2226 610.1032 5.0562727481 7.373708
640.2169 610.5969 5.9922958258 7.351062
1639.613 627.1939 14.0221724518 7.45866
2327.956 654.1901 16.1226921345 7.596184
317.6115 648.9311 3.4975392191 7.532143
1480.934 661.7311 15.1409240662 7.649201
1395.84 672.854 13.5426366936 7.738496
1301.384 682.235 8.793136944 7.754237
2985.708 716.1096 37.5088906926 8.191805
1575.58 728.5657 22.9743430709 8.406045
626.5574 727.1084 6.6386674287 8.380797
532.5458 724.3681 6.2748416008 8.351135
502.0979 721.281 4.7327546004 8.30088
1251.241 728.5408 11.0905950104 8.339095
2686.964 755.006 20.8777344219 8.508536
5386.216 816.7554 30.2409530497 8.798302
3025.024 845.8116 24.9424832311 9.010725
1126.443 849.4562 11.0859427272 9.037676
3962.502 889.367 24.2221500734 9.232349
234.1527 881.0731 1.3157603657 9.132139
624.5911 877.8671 5.3825497066 9.085269
1690.384 887.8982 14.6772947061 9.154306
3447.303 919.1104 21.6471144523 9.306658
1763.411 929.2827 13.0314170813 9.351534
790.4272 927.6297 5.39614417 9.304446
1581.123 935.3179 10.0727724613 9.313485
1905.473 946.5987 11.4422207274 9.338238
2890.211 968.9391 18.7542109859 9.446468
855.2022 967.6466 6.3189170416 9.410927
310.406 960.2619 2.4924200617 9.333191
587.8171 956.1236 3.6062397354 9.269559
247.2736 948.3341 1.0577192818 9.179319
1246.662 951.5768 7.3441033343 9.159371
2014.095 963.0017 13.3075317873 9.203975
2579.951 980.2033 13.2781835789 9.247317
1950.955 990.4217 11.1266954681 9.2671
385.045 984.1157 2.1605041027 9.193073
788.9172 982.1034 4.4471092458 9.144146
1152.002 983.837 6.4171231188 9.116319
1096.099 984.971 5.0858342961 9.075607
496.5242 980.0865 3.1627757032 9.016479
233.2775 972.6924 1.5490904067 8.942544
2465.215 987.3249 10.4867047366 8.957683
1130.523 988.7152 3.7043250972 8.906679
3995.531 1017.627 24.7018932226 9.058556
1123.539 1018.636 7.3361974561 9.042153
2622.729 1033.769 14.6113042007 9.094692
4812.399 1069.083 35.5578452922 9.342011
5111.051 1106.508 33.9514458866 9.569876
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.80473
R Square 0.64759
Adjusted R 0.644265
Standard E 2780.982
Observatio 108

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.51E+09 1.51E+09 194.7858 9.42E-26
Residual 106 8.2E+08 7733861
Total 107 2.33E+09

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 4772.652 538.9386 8.855652 2.1E-14 3704.154 5841.151 3704.154 5841.151
X Variable 119.7983 8.583646 13.95657 9.42E-26 102.7803 136.8162 102.7803 136.8162
 Alpha 0.1
Beta 0.1
Year Month Period Demand Lt Tt Ft Et Et^2
0 4772.65 119.7983
2003 April 1 4698 4873.006 117.8537 4892.45 194.45 37811.09
2003 May 2 4605 4952.273 113.9952 4990.86 385.8594 148887.5
2003 June 3 4859 5045.542 111.9225 5066.27 207.2686 42960.28
2003 July 4 4136 5055.318 101.7078 5157.46 1021.464 1043389
2003 August 5 3872 5028.523 88.85757 5157.03 1285.026 1651291
2003 September 6 5938 5199.443 97.06376 5117.38 -820.619 673416.1
2003 October 7 8790 5645.856 131.9987 5296.51 -3493.49 12204498
2003 November 8 6825 5882.569 142.4702 5777.85 -1047.15 1096514
2003 December 9 4858 5908.335 130.7998 6025.04 1167.039 1361980
2004 January 10 5907 6025.921 129.4784 6039.13 132.135 17459.65
2004 February 11 6386 6178.46 131.7844 6155.40 -230.6 53176.41
2004 March 12 9085 6587.72 159.532 6310.24 -2774.76 7699269
2004 April 13 6492 6721.727 156.9795 6747.25 255.2519 65153.51
2004 May 14 6832 6874.036 156.5124 6878.71 46.70613 2181.462
2004 June 15 8867 7214.193 174.8769 7030.55 -1836.45 3372556
2004 July 16 4998 7149.963 150.9662 7389.07 2391.07 5717216
2004 August 17 5305 7101.336 131.0069 7300.93 1995.929 3983734
2004 September 18 7618 7270.909 134.8635 7232.34 -385.657 148731.1
2004 October 19 11443 7809.495 175.2358 7405.77 -4037.23 16299207
2004 November 20 8716 8057.858 182.5485 7984.73 -731.269 534754.5
2004 December 21 6119 8028.266 161.3344 8240.41 2121.406 4500365
2005 January 22 7408 8111.44 153.5184 8189.60 781.6001 610898.6
2005 February 23 7493 8187.763 145.7988 8264.96 771.9584 595919.8
2005 March 24 8541 8354.305 147.8732 8333.56 -207.439 43030.77
2005 April 25 8029 8454.861 143.1414 8502.18 473.1785 223897.9
2005 May 26 8650 8603.202 143.6614 8598.00 -51.998 2703.79
2005 June 27 9960 8868.177 155.7928 8746.86 -1213.14 1471701
2005 July 28 7152 8836.773 137.0731 9023.97 1871.97 3504270
2005 August 29 7322 8808.661 120.5546 8973.85 1651.846 2728594
2005 September 30 9239 8960.194 123.6524 8929.22 -309.784 95966.27
2005 October 31 14123 9587.762 174.044 9083.85 -5039.15 25393067
2005 November 32 9566 9742.225 172.0859 9761.81 195.806 38339.97
2005 December 33 7341 9656.98 146.3528 9914.31 2573.311 6621931
2006 January 34 9404 9763.4 142.3595 9803.33 399.333 159466.8
2006 February 35 8613 9776.483 129.4319 9905.76 1292.759 1671226
2006 March 36 9425 9857.824 124.6227 9905.92 480.9151 231279.3
2006 April 37 10905 10074.7 133.8483 9982.45 -922.554 851105.3
2006 May 38 9842 10171.89 130.1828 10208.55 366.55 134358.9
2006 June 39 12259 10497.77 149.752 10302.08 -1956.92 3829545
2006 July 40 9285 10511.27 136.1268 10647.52 1362.522 1856466
2006 August 41 7950 10377.66 109.1528 10647.40 2697.397 7275948
2006 September 42 11482 10586.33 119.1047 10486.81 -995.19 990403.7
2006 October 43 15817 11216.59 170.2204 10705.43 -5111.57 26128113
2006 November 44 10288 11276.93 159.2323 11386.81 1098.81 1207384
2006 December 45 8743 11166.85 132.3007 11436.16 2693.162 7253120
2007 January 46 10419 11211.13 123.4992 11299.15 880.1462 774657.3
2007 February 47 8801 11081.27 98.16289 11334.63 2533.631 6419285
2007 March 48 8631 10924.59 72.67858 11179.43 2548.431 6494498
2007 April 49 9682 10865.74 59.52592 10997.27 1315.266 1729925
2007 May 50 9052 10737.94 40.79327 10925.27 1873.265 3509123
2007 June 51 11477 10848.56 47.77594 10778.73 -698.268 487578
2007 July 52 8242 10630.9 21.2326 10896.33 2654.335 7045494
2007 August 53 7674 10354.32 -8.54874 10652.13 2978.134 8869282
2007 September 54 10339 10345.09 -8.61646 10345.77 6.771831 45.85769
2007 October 55 13919 10694.73 27.20876 10336.48 -3582.52 12834463
2007 November 56 10531 10702.85 25.29936 10721.94 190.9391 36457.75
2007 December 57 8435 10498.83 2.367919 10728.14 2293.145 5258512
2008 January 58 9750 10426.08 -5.14406 10501.20 751.198 564298.5
2008 February 59 8477 10226.54 -24.5834 10420.93 1943.934 3778880
2008 March 60 9814 10163.16 -28.463 10201.96 387.9574 150510.9
2008 April 61 10684 10189.63 -22.97 10134.70 -549.301 301732
2008 May 62 11693 10319.29 -7.70655 10166.66 -1526.34 2329717
2008 June 63 14439 10724.33 33.56759 10311.59 -4127.41 17035543
2008 July 64 9081 10590.21 16.79863 10757.90 1676.895 2811978
2008 August 65 9781 10524.4 8.538588 10607.00 826.0044 682283.3
2008 September 66 10307 10510.35 6.279162 10532.94 225.9426 51050.05
2008 October 67 14800 10944.96 49.11289 10516.63 -4283.37 18347280
2008 November 68 7960 10690.67 18.77211 10994.08 3034.078 9205627
2008 December 69 6858 10324.3 -19.7423 10709.44 3851.442 14833605
2009 January 70 9438 10217.9 -28.4079 10304.56 866.5555 750918.4
2009 February 71 8487 10019.24 -45.4328 10189.49 1702.492 2898479
2009 March 72 10609 10037.33 -39.0809 9973.81 -635.19 403466.3
2009 April 73 11282 10126.62 -26.2434 9998.25 -1283.75 1648019
2009 May 74 12870 10377.34 1.452834 10100.38 -2769.62 7670795
2009 June 75 17811 11122.02 75.77489 10378.79 -7432.21 55237674
2009 July 76 12128 11290.81 85.07698 11197.79 -930.21 865290.2
2009 August 77 10161 11254.4 72.9281 11375.89 1214.888 1475953
2009 September 78 16359 11830.49 123.2448 11327.33 -5031.67 25317728
2009 October 79 17796 12537.97 181.6674 11953.74 -5842.26 34132007
2009 November 80 11604 12608.07 170.5111 12719.63 1115.633 1244637
2009 December 81 11517 12652.42 157.8953 12778.58 1261.581 1591586
2010 January 82 15925 13121.79 189.0421 12810.32 -3114.68 9701244
2010 February 83 13532 13332.95 191.2538 13310.83 -221.172 48916.9
2010 March 84 14648 13636.58 202.4918 13524.20 -1123.8 1262928
2010 April 85 15697 14024.86 221.0711 13839.07 -1857.93 3451899
2010 May 86 16653 14486.64 245.1418 14245.94 -2407.06 5793961
2010 June 87 15411 14799.71 251.9339 14731.78 -679.217 461335.1
2010 July 88 13534 14899.88 236.7575 15051.64 1517.639 2303228
2010 August 89 12454 14868.37 209.9312 15136.63 2682.633 7196518
2010 September 90 16300 15200.47 222.1482 15078.30 -1221.7 1492549
2010 October 91 23378 16218.16 301.702 15422.62 -7955.38 63288090
2010 November 92 16975 16565.37 306.2534 16519.86 -455.141 207153.4
2010 December 93 15135 16697.96 288.8872 16871.63 1736.626 3015872
2011 January 94 19430 17231.17 313.3187 16986.85 -2443.15 5968977
2011 February 95 17534 17543.44 313.2138 17544.48 10.48457 109.9261
2011 March 96 17822 17853.18 312.8673 17856.65 34.64992 1200.617
2011 April 97 17740 18123.45 308.6068 18166.05 426.0522 181520.5
2011 May 98 17952 18384.05 303.8063 18432.05 480.0538 230451.7
2011 June 99 21552 18974.27 332.4477 18687.85 -2864.15 8203328
2011 July 100 15699 18945.95 296.3705 19306.72 3607.717 13015621
2011 August 101 15059 18823.98 254.5374 19242.32 4183.316 17500131
2011 September 102 23508 19521.47 298.8322 19078.52 -4429.48 19620279
2011 October 103 30519 20890.17 405.8191 19820.30 -10698.7 1.14E+08
2011 November 104 16175 20783.89 354.6092 21295.99 5120.991 26224544
2011 December 105 15315 20556.15 296.3742 21138.50 5823.501 33913161
2012 January 106 17950 20562.27 267.349 20852.52 2902.525 8424651
2012 February 107 13534 20100.06 194.3928 20829.62 7295.621 53226092
2012 March 108 15054 19770.41 141.9883 20294.45 5240.452 27462338
109 19912.40
110 20054.38
111 20196.37
112 20338.36
113 20480.35
114 20622.34
115 20764.32
116 20906.31
117 21048.30
 MSE ABS Dev MAD Percent Error MAPE

37811.09 194.4507 194.4507 4.1390108673 4.139011

93349.28 385.8594 290.1551 8.3791401917 6.259076
76552.95 207.2686 262.5263 4.2656641186 5.594605
318262 1021.464 452.2607 24.6969106783 10.37018
584867.8 1285.026 618.8137 33.1876453749 14.93367
599625.8 820.6194 652.448 13.8197939447 14.74803
2257465 3493.494 1058.312 39.7439552311 18.31887
2112346 1047.146 1056.916 15.342792652 17.94686
2028972 1167.039 1069.152 24.0230365822 18.62199
1827821 132.135 975.4501 2.2369217893 16.98349
1666489 230.6001 907.7365 3.6110258687 15.76781
2169221 2774.756 1063.321 30.5421649391 16.99901
2007370 255.2519 1001.162 3.9317907681 15.99383
1864142 46.70613 932.9868 0.683637666 14.90025
1964703 1836.452 993.2178 20.7110871107 15.28764
2199235 2391.07 1080.584 47.8405368015 17.32219
2304205 1995.929 1134.427 37.6235483533 18.51639
2184457 385.6568 1092.829 5.062441094 17.76895
2927338 4037.228 1247.797 35.2811989629 18.69065
2807709 731.2691 1221.971 8.3899618249 18.17561
2888312 2121.406 1264.801 34.6691663715 18.96102
2784793 781.6001 1242.838 10.5507566685 18.57874
2689625 771.9584 1222.365 10.3023947794 18.21889
2579350 207.4386 1180.076 2.4287389703 17.56097
2485132 473.1785 1151.8 5.8933672669 17.09427
2389654 51.99798 1109.5 0.6011327022 16.45992
2355656 1213.137 1113.338 12.180088272 16.3014
2396678 1871.97 1140.432 26.1740722062 16.654
2408123 1651.846 1158.067 22.5600346929 16.85766
2331051 309.7842 1129.791 3.3530060694 16.4075
3074987 5039.153 1255.9 35.6804741367 17.02921
2980092 195.806 1222.772 2.0468947615 16.56101
3090451 2573.311 1263.697 35.0539610005 17.1214
3004245 399.333 1238.275 4.2464159509 16.74273
2966159 1292.759 1239.831 15.0093943752 16.6932
2890190 480.9151 1218.75 5.1025475812 16.37124
2835080 922.5537 1210.745 8.4599144133 16.15742
2764008 366.55 1188.529 3.724344353 15.83024
2791330 1956.922 1208.232 15.9631475185 15.83364
2767958 1362.522 1212.089 14.6744422755 15.80466
2877909 2697.397 1248.316 33.9295162672 16.24673
2832968 995.1903 1242.289 8.6673950707 16.06627
3374716 5111.567 1332.272 32.3169157219 16.4442
3325458 1098.81 1326.966 10.6805061617 16.3132
3412740 2693.162 1357.326 30.8036337581 16.63521
3355390 880.1462 1346.953 8.447511138 16.45722
3420579 2533.631 1372.201 28.7879872857 16.71957
3484619 2548.431 1396.706 29.5264809569 16.98639
3448809 1315.266 1395.044 13.5846529128 16.91696
3450016 1873.265 1404.609 20.6944918839 16.99251
3391928 698.2679 1390.759 6.0840626421 16.77862
3462189 2654.335 1415.058 32.2049849789 17.07528
3564210 2978.134 1444.55 38.8081049206 17.48534
3498207 6.771831 1417.925 0.065497926 17.16275
3667957 3582.522 1457.281 25.7383563092 17.31867
3603109 190.9391 1434.668 1.8131148301 17.04178
3632151 2293.145 1449.729 27.1860649107 17.21975
3579257 751.198 1437.685 7.704595248 17.0557
3582640 1943.934 1446.266 22.9318647119 17.15529
3525438 387.9574 1428.627 3.9531011959 16.93526
3472591 549.3014 1414.212 5.1413455671 16.74191
3454157 1526.341 1416.021 13.0534609369 16.68242
3669735 4127.414 1459.059 28.5851763956 16.87136
3656332 1676.895 1462.462 18.4659765145 16.89627
3610578 826.0044 1452.671 8.4449895342 16.76625
3556645 225.9426 1434.084 2.1921274011 16.54543
3777401 4283.373 1476.61 28.9417062438 16.73045
3857228 3034.078 1499.514 38.1165529571 17.04495
4016306 3851.442 1533.6 56.1598420056 17.61183
3969658 866.5555 1524.071 9.1815581641 17.4914
3954571 1702.492 1526.584 20.0599982353 17.52758
3905250 635.1899 1514.204 5.9872743768 17.3673
3874329 1283.752 1511.047 11.3787611171 17.28526
3925632 2769.62 1528.054 21.5199690169 17.34249
4609793 7432.205 1606.776 41.7281745959 17.66763
4560523 930.2098 1597.874 7.6699354701 17.53608
4520464 1214.888 1592.9 11.9563840866 17.46362
4787095 5031.673 1636.987 30.7578246229 17.63406
5158550 5842.26 1690.219 32.8290652403 17.8264
5109626 1115.633 1683.036 9.6142108433 17.72375
5066193 1261.581 1677.833 10.954075061 17.64017
5122718 3114.682 1695.356 19.5584424792 17.66356
5061588 221.1717 1677.594 1.6344343467 17.47044
5016366 1123.801 1671.002 7.6720416515 17.35379
4997961 1857.929 1673.201 11.8362028368 17.28888
5007216 2407.065 1681.734 14.4542410381 17.25592
4954965 679.2165 1670.211 4.4073487325 17.10824
4924832 1517.639 1668.477 11.2135294384 17.04125
4950356 2682.633 1679.872 21.5403301113 17.0918
4911936 1221.699 1674.781 7.4950879814 16.98517
5553432 7955.381 1743.799 34.0293489404 17.17247
5495321 455.1411 1729.792 2.6812433121 17.01496
5468660 1736.626 1729.865 11.474241738 16.95538
5473982 2443.149 1737.453 12.5741070122 16.90877
5416363 10.48457 1719.275 0.0597956307 16.73141
5359955 34.64992 1701.727 0.1944221903 16.55915
5306569 426.0522 1688.575 2.4016473771 16.4132
5254772 480.0538 1676.243 2.6740965464 16.273
5284555 2864.145 1688.242 13.289464159 16.24287
5361866 3607.717 1707.437 22.9805524099 16.31024
5482047 4183.316 1731.951 27.7795057316 16.4238
5620657 4429.478 1758.397 18.8424299336 16.44751
6677370 10698.7 1845.196 35.0558616656 16.62818
6865324 5120.991 1876.694 31.6599107812 16.77271
7122922 5823.501 1914.283 38.0248172034 16.97511
7135203 2902.525 1923.606 16.1700552334 16.96752
7565959 7295.621 1973.812 53.9058771168 17.31274
7750184 5240.452 2004.058 34.8110272355 17.47476
 Alpha 0.1

Year Month Period Demand Lt Ft Et Et^2 MSE

0 11301.66
2003 April 1 4698 10641.29 11301.66 6603.657 43608291 43608291
2003 May 2 4605 10037.66 10641.29 6036.292 36436817 40022554
2003 June 3 4859 9519.796 10037.66 5178.663 26818545 35621218
2003 July 4 4136 8981.417 9519.796 5383.796 28985262 33962229
2003 August 5 3872 8470.475 8981.417 5109.417 26106138 32391011
2003 September 6 5938 8217.227 8470.475 2532.475 6413429 28061414
2003 October 7 8790 8274.505 8217.227 -572.773 328068.4 24099507
2003 November 8 6825 8129.554 8274.505 1449.505 2101064 21349702
2003 December 9 4858 7802.399 8129.554 3271.554 10703067 20166743
2004 January 10 5907 7612.859 7802.399 1895.399 3592537 18509322
2004 February 11 6386 7490.173 7612.859 1226.859 1505183 16963491
2004 March 12 9085 7649.656 7490.173 -1594.83 2543473 15761823
2004 April 13 6492 7533.89 7649.656 1157.656 1340167 14652465
2004 May 14 6832 7463.701 7533.89 701.8902 492649.8 13641049
2004 June 15 8867 7604.031 7463.701 -1403.3 1969248 12862929
2004 July 16 4998 7343.428 7604.031 2606.031 6791398 12483459
2004 August 17 5305 7139.585 7343.428 2038.428 4155188 11993560
2004 September 18 7618 7187.427 7139.585 -478.415 228880.8 11339967
2004 October 19 11443 7612.984 7187.427 -4255.57 18109905 11696280
2004 November 20 8716 7723.286 7612.984 -1103.02 1216644 11172298
2004 December 21 6119 7562.857 7723.286 1604.286 2573732 10762842
2005 January 22 7408 7547.371 7562.857 154.857 23980.69 10274712
2005 February 23 7493 7541.934 7547.371 54.37131 2956.239 9828114
2005 March 24 8541 7641.841 7541.934 -999.066 998132.5 9460198
2005 April 25 8029 7680.557 7641.841 -387.159 149892.3 9087786
2005 May 26 8650 7777.501 7680.557 -969.443 939820.3 8774403
2005 June 27 9960 7995.751 7777.501 -2182.5 4763302 8625843
2005 July 28 7152 7911.376 7995.751 843.7509 711915.6 8343203
2005 August 29 7322 7852.438 7911.376 589.3758 347363.9 8067485
2005 September 30 9239 7991.094 7852.438 -1386.56 1922554 7862653
2005 October 31 14123 8604.285 7991.094 -6131.91 37600266 8821931
2005 November 32 9566 8700.456 8604.285 -961.715 924895.8 8575149
2005 December 33 7341 8564.511 8700.456 1359.456 1848122 8371300
2006 January 34 9404 8648.46 8564.511 -839.489 704742.1 8145813
2006 February 35 8613 8644.914 8648.46 35.45975 1257.394 7913111
2006 March 36 9425 8722.922 8644.914 -780.086 608534.5 7710206
2006 April 37 10905 8941.13 8722.922 -2182.08 4761463 7630510
2006 May 38 9842 9031.217 8941.13 -900.87 811566.5 7451065
2006 June 39 12259 9353.995 9031.217 -3227.78 10418582 7527155
2006 July 40 9285 9347.096 9353.995 68.99543 4760.369 7339095
2006 August 41 7950 9207.386 9347.096 1397.096 1951877 7207699
2006 September 42 11482 9434.848 9207.386 -2274.61 5173868 7159275
2006 October 43 15817 10073.06 9434.848 -6382.15 40731868 7940033
2006 November 44 10288 10094.56 10073.06 -214.937 46197.96 7760627
2006 December 45 8743 9959.401 10094.56 1351.557 1826705 7628762
2007 January 46 10419 10005.36 9959.401 -459.599 211231.3 7467512
2007 February 47 8801 9884.925 10005.36 1204.361 1450485 7339490
2007 March 48 8631 9759.532 9884.925 1253.925 1572327 7219341
2007 April 49 9682 9751.779 9759.532 77.53229 6011.256 7072130
2007 May 50 9052 9681.801 9751.779 699.7791 489690.7 6940481
2007 June 51 11477 9861.321 9681.801 -1795.2 3222739 6867584
2007 July 52 8242 9699.389 9861.321 1619.321 2622201 6785942
2007 August 53 7674 9496.85 9699.389 2025.389 4102200 6735306
2007 September 54 10339 9581.065 9496.85 -842.15 709216.6 6623711
2007 October 55 13919 10014.86 9581.065 -4337.93 18817680 6845420
2007 November 56 10531 10066.47 10014.86 -516.141 266402 6727937
2007 December 57 8435 9903.325 10066.47 1631.473 2661703 6656600
2008 January 58 9750 9887.993 9903.325 153.3254 23508.68 6542236
2008 February 59 8477 9746.894 9887.993 1410.993 1990901 6465095
2008 March 60 9814 9753.604 9746.894 -67.1064 4503.271 6357419
2008 April 61 10684 9846.644 9753.604 -930.396 865636.3 6267389
2008 May 62 11693 10031.28 9846.644 -1846.36 3409031 6221287
2008 June 63 14439 10472.05 10031.28 -4407.72 19428001 6430917
2008 July 64 9081 10332.95 10472.05 1391.051 1935024 6360669
2008 August 65 9781 10277.75 10332.95 551.9463 304644.8 6267499
2008 September 66 10307 10280.68 10277.75 -29.2483 855.4631 6172550
2008 October 67 14800 10732.61 10280.68 -4519.32 20424285 6385262
2008 November 68 7960 10455.35 10732.61 2772.609 7687360 6404411
2008 December 69 6858 10095.61 10455.35 3597.348 12940913 6499143
2009 January 70 9438 10029.85 10095.61 657.6132 432455.1 6412476
2009 February 71 8487 9875.567 10029.85 1542.852 2380392 6355686
2009 March 72 10609 9948.91 9875.567 -733.433 537924.4 6274884
2009 April 73 11282 10082.22 9948.91 -1333.09 1777129 6213271
2009 May 74 12870 10361 10082.22 -2787.78 7771723 6234331
2009 June 75 17811 11106 10361 -7450 55502543 6891240
2009 July 76 12128 11208.2 11106 -1022 1044489 6814309
2009 August 77 10161 11103.48 11208.2 1047.198 1096623 6740054
2009 September 78 16359 11629.03 11103.48 -5255.52 27620513 7007752
2009 October 79 17796 12245.73 11629.03 -6166.97 38031518 7400458
2009 November 80 11604 12181.55 12245.73 641.7271 411813.7 7313100
2009 December 81 11517 12115.1 12181.55 664.5544 441632.5 7228267
2010 January 82 15925 12496.09 12115.1 -3809.9 14515346 7317134
2010 February 83 13532 12599.68 12496.09 -1035.91 1073111 7241904
2010 March 84 14648 12804.51 12599.68 -2048.32 4195614 7205639
2010 April 85 15697 13093.76 12804.51 -2892.49 8366486 7219296
2010 May 86 16653 13449.68 13093.76 -3559.24 12668183 7282655
2010 June 87 15411 13645.82 13449.68 -1961.32 3846757 7243162
2010 July 88 13534 13634.63 13645.82 111.8163 12502.89 7160996
2010 August 89 12454 13516.57 13634.63 1180.635 1393898 7096197
2010 September 90 16300 13794.91 13516.57 -2783.43 7747476 7103433
2010 October 91 23378 14753.22 13794.91 -9583.09 91835535 8034555
2010 November 92 16975 14975.4 14753.22 -2221.78 4936294 8000878
2010 December 93 15135 14991.36 14975.4 -159.6 25472.02 7915121
2011 January 94 19430 15435.22 14991.36 -4438.64 19701522 8040509
2011 February 95 17534 15645.1 15435.22 -2098.78 4404859 8002239
2011 March 96 17822 15862.79 15645.1 -2176.9 4738885 7968245
2011 April 97 17740 16050.51 15862.79 -1877.21 3523911 7922428
2011 May 98 17952 16240.66 16050.51 -1901.49 3615655 7878481
2011 June 99 21552 16771.8 16240.66 -5311.34 28210319 8083853
2011 July 100 15699 16664.52 16771.8 1072.795 1150889 8014523
2011 August 101 15059 16503.96 16664.52 1605.516 2577681 7960693
2011 September 102 23508 17204.37 16503.96 -7004.04 49056519 8363593
2011 October 103 30519 18535.83 17204.37 -13314.6 1.77E+08 10003553
2011 November 104 16175 18299.75 18535.83 2360.831 5573523 9960957
2011 December 105 15315 18001.27 18299.75 2984.748 8908720 9950935
2012 January 106 17950 17996.15 18001.27 51.27304 2628.924 9857083
2012 February 107 13534 17549.93 17996.15 4462.146 19910745 9951043
2012 March 108 15054 17300.34 17549.93 2495.931 6229672 9916586
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
17300.34
ABS Dev MAD Percent Error MAPE

6603.657 6603.657 140.5631632058 140.5632

6036.292 6319.975 131.081252262 135.8222
5178.663 5939.537 106.5787713521 126.0744
5383.796 5800.602 130.1691549807 127.0981
5109.417 5662.365 131.9580739928 128.0701
2532.475 5140.717 42.6486184321 113.8332
572.7725 4488.153 6.5161835466 98.50217
1449.505 4108.322 21.2381643901 88.84417
3271.554 4015.348 67.3436444558 86.45523
1895.399 3803.353 32.0873340595 81.01844
1226.859 3569.126 19.2116965331 75.39964
1594.827 3404.601 17.5545069175 70.57921
1157.656 3231.759 17.8320354574 66.52174
701.8902 3051.054 10.2735680284 62.50401
1403.299 2941.204 15.8260837833 59.39215
2606.031 2920.256 52.1414773077 58.93898
2038.428 2868.383 38.4246547079 57.73226
478.4149 2735.607 6.2800585583 54.8738
4255.573 2815.606 37.1893155193 53.94304
1103.016 2729.976 12.6550715625 51.87864
1604.286 2676.372 26.218100447 50.65671
154.857 2561.758 2.090402399 48.44915
54.37131 2452.741 0.7256280361 46.37422
999.0658 2392.171 11.6972933161 44.92934
387.1592 2311.971 4.8220107101 43.32505
969.4433 2260.335 11.2074371783 42.08976
2182.499 2257.452 21.9126404049 41.34246
843.7509 2206.963 11.7974121099 40.28728
589.3758 2151.184 8.0493829922 39.17563
1386.562 2125.696 15.0077038595 38.37003
6131.906 2254.929 43.4178686088 38.53286
961.715 2214.516 10.0534708892 37.64288
1359.456 2188.605 18.5186824311 37.06336
839.4892 2148.925 8.9269371593 36.23582
35.45975 2088.541 0.4117002971 35.21227
780.0862 2052.195 8.2767769557 34.46406
2182.078 2055.705 20.0098817539 34.07341
900.8698 2025.315 9.1533209179 33.41762
3227.783 2056.147 26.3299034201 33.23588
68.99543 2006.468 0.7430848224 32.42356
1397.096 1991.606 17.5735331218 32.06137
2274.614 1998.344 19.8102569686 31.76967
6382.152 2100.293 40.3499546982 31.96921
214.9371 2057.444 2.0892019941 31.29012
1351.557 2041.757 15.4587282278 30.93831
459.5991 2007.363 4.4111627981 30.36164
1204.361 1990.278 13.6843637457 30.0068
1253.925 1974.937 14.5281516386 29.68433
77.53229 1936.214 0.8007879688 29.09487
699.7791 1911.486 7.7306568938 28.66759
1795.199 1909.206 15.6417081483 28.41218
1619.321 1903.631 19.6471856375 28.24362
2025.389 1905.928 26.3928712043 28.2087
842.15 1886.229 8.1453714809 27.83716
4337.935 1930.805 31.1655647796 27.89767
516.1415 1905.543 4.9011629047 27.48702
1631.473 1900.735 19.3417033912 27.34412
153.3254 1870.607 1.5725683379 26.89978
1410.993 1862.817 16.6449554282 26.72597
67.10642 1832.889 0.6837825098 26.29194
930.3958 1818.094 8.7083093782 26.00368
1846.356 1818.549 15.7902693626 25.83895
4407.721 1859.647 30.5264947497 25.91335
1391.051 1852.326 15.3182631955 25.7478
551.9463 1832.32 5.6430460352 25.4385
29.2483 1805.001 0.2837712289 25.05737
4519.323 1845.513 30.5359693953 25.13914
2772.609 1859.147 34.8317698058 25.28168
3597.348 1884.338 52.4547679919 25.67549
657.6132 1866.813 6.9677176308 25.40824
1542.852 1862.25 18.1790016613 25.30642
733.4333 1846.572 6.9133124338 25.05096
1333.09 1839.538 11.816078572 24.86966
2787.781 1852.352 21.6610799226 24.8263
7450.003 1926.988 41.82809998 25.05299
1022.003 1915.08 8.4268024299 24.83422
1047.198 1903.809 10.3060492193 24.64554
5255.522 1946.78 32.1261819484 24.74145
6166.97 2000.2 34.6536856285 24.86692
641.7271 1983.219 5.5302231558 24.62521
664.5544 1966.939 5.7702039203 24.39244
3809.901 1989.414 23.9240254509 24.38672
1035.911 1977.926 7.6552686059 24.18514
2048.32 1978.764 13.9836145069 24.06369
2892.488 1989.514 18.4270106879 23.99738
3559.239 2007.767 21.3729603129 23.96686
1961.315 2007.233 12.7267222946 23.83766
111.8163 1985.694 0.8261884474 23.57617
1180.635 1976.648 9.4799639475 23.41779
2783.429 1985.612 17.0762500674 23.34732
9583.086 2069.101 40.9918978736 23.54122
2221.777 2070.761 13.0885260465 23.42761
159.5996 2050.211 1.0545065527 23.18703
4438.64 2075.619 22.8442594446 23.18339
2098.776 2075.863 11.9697481982 23.06535
2176.898 2076.916 12.2146677374 22.95232
1877.208 2074.857 10.5817828396 22.82479
1901.487 2073.088 10.5920646623 22.69997
5311.339 2105.797 24.6442961366 22.71961
1072.795 2095.467 6.8335254919 22.56075
1605.516 2090.616 10.6615024257 22.44293
7004.036 2138.787 29.7942654192 22.515
13314.63 2247.29 43.6273545112 22.71998
2360.831 2248.382 14.5955543064 22.64186
2984.748 2255.395 19.4890487636 22.61183
51.27304 2234.601 0.2856436565 22.40121
4462.146 2255.42 32.9698960596 22.49998
2495.931 2257.647 16.5798535899 22.44516
Year Month Period Demand Lt Ft
2003 April 1 4698
2003 May 2 4605
2003 June 3 4859
2003 July 4 4136
2003 August 5 3872
2003 September 6 5938
2003 October 7 8790
2003 November 8 6825
2003 December 9 4858
2004 January 10 5907
2004 February 11 6386
2004 March 12 9085 5829.917
2004 April 13 6492 5979.417 5829.917
2004 May 14 6832 6165 5979.417
2004 June 15 8867 6499 6165
2004 July 16 4998 6570.833 6499
2004 August 17 5305 6690.25 6570.833
2004 September 18 7618 6830.25 6690.25
2004 October 19 11443 7051.333 6830.25
2004 November 20 8716 7208.917 7051.333
2004 December 21 6119 7314 7208.917
2005 January 22 7408 7439.083 7314
2005 February 23 7493 7531.333 7439.083
2005 March 24 8541 7486 7531.333
2005 April 25 8029 7614.083 7486
2005 May 26 8650 7765.583 7614.083
2005 June 27 9960 7856.667 7765.583
2005 July 28 7152 8036.167 7856.667
2005 August 29 7322 8204.25 8036.167
2005 September 30 9239 8339.333 8204.25
2005 October 31 14123 8562.667 8339.333
2005 November 32 9566 8633.5 8562.667
2005 December 33 7341 8735.333 8633.5
2006 January 34 9404 8901.667 8735.333
2006 February 35 8613 8995 8901.667
2006 March 36 9425 9068.667 8995
2006 April 37 10905 9308.333 9068.667
2006 May 38 9842 9407.667 9308.333
2006 June 39 12259 9599.25 9407.667
2006 July 40 9285 9777 9599.25
2006 August 41 7950 9829.333 9777
2006 September 42 11482 10016.25 9829.333
2006 October 43 15817 10157.42 10016.25
2006 November 44 10288 10217.58 10157.42
2006 December 45 8743 10334.42 10217.58
2007 January 46 10419 10419 10334.42
2007 February 47 8801 10434.67 10419
2007 March 48 8631 10368.5 10434.67
2007 April 49 9682 10266.58 10368.5
2007 May 50 9052 10200.75 10266.58
2007 June 51 11477 10135.58 10200.75
2007 July 52 8242 10048.67 10135.58
2007 August 53 7674 10025.67 10048.67
2007 September 54 10339 9930.417 10025.67
2007 October 55 13919 9772.25 9930.417
2007 November 56 10531 9792.5 9772.25
2007 December 57 8435 9766.833 9792.5
2008 January 58 9750 9711.083 9766.833
2008 February 59 8477 9684.083 9711.083
2008 March 60 9814 9782.667 9684.083
2008 April 61 10684 9866.167 9782.667
2008 May 62 11693 10086.25 9866.167
2008 June 63 14439 10333.08 10086.25
2008 July 64 9081 10403 10333.08
2008 August 65 9781 10578.58 10403
2008 September 66 10307 10575.92 10578.58
2008 October 67 14800 10649.33 10575.92
2008 November 68 7960 10435.08 10649.33
2008 December 69 6858 10303.67 10435.08
2009 January 70 9438 10277.67 10303.67
2009 February 71 8487 10278.5 10277.67
2009 March 72 10609 10344.75 10278.5
2009 April 73 11282 10394.58 10344.75
2009 May 74 12870 10492.67 10394.58
2009 June 75 17811 10773.67 10492.67
2009 July 76 12128 11027.58 10773.67
2009 August 77 10161 11059.25 11027.58
2009 September 78 16359 11563.58 11059.25
2009 October 79 17796 11813.25 11563.58
2009 November 80 11604 12116.92 11813.25
2009 December 81 11517 12505.17 12116.92
2010 January 82 15925 13045.75 12505.17
2010 February 83 13532 13466.17 13045.75
2010 March 84 14648 13802.75 13466.17
2010 April 85 15697 14170.67 13802.75
2010 May 86 16653 14485.92 14170.67
2010 June 87 15411 14285.92 14485.92
2010 July 88 13534 14403.08 14285.92
2010 August 89 12454 14594.17 14403.08
2010 September 90 16300 14589.25 14594.17
2010 October 91 23378 15054.42 14589.25
2010 November 92 16975 15502 15054.42
2010 December 93 15135 15803.5 15502
2011 January 94 19430 16095.58 15803.5
2011 February 95 17534 16429.08 16095.58
2011 March 96 17822 16693.58 16429.08
2011 April 97 17740 16863.83 16693.58
2011 May 98 17952 16972.08 16863.83
2011 June 99 21552 17483.83 16972.08
2011 July 100 15699 17664.25 17483.83
2011 August 101 15059 17881.33 17664.25
2011 September 102 23508 18482 17881.33
2011 October 103 30519 19077.08 18482
2011 November 104 16175 19010.42 19077.08
2011 December 105 15315 19025.42 19010.42
2012 January 106 17950 18902.08 19025.42
2012 February 107 13534 18568.75 18902.08
2012 March 108 15054 18338.08 18568.75
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
18338.08
Industry MMFD
10281 4698
11683 4605
14042 4859 63000
10283 4136
9522 3872
14263 5938 53000
20264 8790
15778 6825
12758 4858
43000
14297 5907
17521 6386
24773 9085
15714 6492 33000
17352 6832
20901 8867
12065 4998 23000
13452 5305
22018 7618
27631 11443 13000
21799 8716
16209 6119
16249 7408
3000
18867 7493
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85
23857 8541
16828 8029
19062 8650
22724 9960
15320 7152
10936 7322
21986 9239
30998 14123
22359 9566
20860 7341
24057 9404
23506 8613
27985 9425
24426 10905
24262 9842
29924 12259
21738 9285
20417 7950
33280 11482
35817 15817
26057 10288
23742 8743
26259 10419
23995 8801
28421 8631
22357 9682
23488 9052
29631 11477
20594 8242
20051 7674
27466 10339
34778 13919
25839 10531
23053 8435
23548 9750
22619 8477
28817 9814
24644 10684
27949 11693
32737 14439
21654 9081
22718 9781
28855 10307
33205 14800
20983 7960
17751 6858
22114 9438
20025 8487
31286 10609
27039 11282
31113 12870
39396 17811
27219 12128
24434 10161
41338 16359
43171 17796
27743 11604
27424 11517
35941 15925
32140 13532
43245 14648
38301 15697
40442 16653
38356 15411
31198 13534
29763 12454
42042 16300
55946 23378
37044 16975
35298 15135
42838 19430
41784 17534
45500 17822
42513 17740
41874 17952
48716 21552
38577 15699
36407 15059
56864 23508
67886 30519
39735 16175
36604 15315
42277 17950
36701 13534
43541 15054
 Column A
Column B

57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105
Year Month Period Demand
2003 April 1 4698
2003 May 2 4605
2003 June 3 4859
2003 July 4 4136
2003 August 5 3872
2003 September 6 5938 5829.917
2003 October 7 8790 5979.417 5904.667
2003 November 8 6825 6165 6072.208
2003 December 9 4858 6499 6332
2004 January 10 5907 6570.833 6534.917
2004 February 11 6386 6690.25 6630.542
2004 March 12 9085 6830.25 6760.25
2004 April 13 6492 7051.333 6940.792
2004 May 14 6832 7208.917 7130.125
2004 June 15 8867 7314 7261.458
2004 July 16 4998 7439.083 7376.542
2004 August 17 5305 7531.333 7485.208
2004 September 18 7618 7486 7508.667
2004 October 19 11443 7614.083 7550.042
2004 November 20 8716 7765.583 7689.833
2004 December 21 6119 7856.667 7811.125
2005 January 22 7408 8036.167 7946.417
2005 February 23 7493 8204.25 8120.208
2005 March 24 8541 8339.333 8271.792
2005 April 25 8029 8562.667 8451
2005 May 26 8650 8633.5 8598.083
2005 June 27 9960 8735.333 8684.417
2005 July 28 7152 8901.667 8818.5
2005 August 29 7322 8995 8948.333
2005 September 30 9239 9068.667 9031.833
2005 October 31 14123 9308.333 9188.5
2005 November 32 9566 9407.667 9358
2005 December 33 7341 9599.25 9503.458
2006 January 34 9404 9777 9688.125
2006 February 35 8613 9829.333 9803.167
2006 March 36 9425 10016.25 9922.792
2006 April 37 10905 10157.42 10086.83
2006 May 38 9842 10217.58 10187.5
2006 June 39 12259 10334.42 10276
2006 July 40 9285 10419 10376.71
2006 August 41 7950 10434.67 10426.83
2006 September 42 11482 10368.5 10401.58
2006 October 43 15817 10266.58 10317.54
2006 November 44 10288 10200.75 10233.67
2006 December 45 8743 10135.58 10168.17
2007 January 46 10419 10048.67 10092.13
2007 February 47 8801 10025.67 10037.17
2007 March 48 8631 9930.417 9978.042
2007 April 49 9682 9772.25 9851.333
2007 May 50 9052 9792.5 9782.375
2007 June 51 11477 9766.833 9779.667
2007 July 52 8242 9711.083 9738.958
2007 August 53 7674 9684.083 9697.583
2007 September 54 10339 9782.667 9733.375
2007 October 55 13919 9866.167 9824.417
2007 November 56 10531 10086.25 9976.208
2007 December 57 8435 10333.08 10209.67
2008 January 58 9750 10403 10368.04
2008 February 59 8477 10578.58 10490.79
2008 March 60 9814 10575.92 10577.25
2008 April 61 10684 10649.33 10612.63
2008 May 62 11693 10435.08 10542.21
2008 June 63 14439 10303.67 10369.38
2008 July 64 9081 10277.67 10290.67
2008 August 65 9781 10278.5 10278.08
2008 September 66 10307 10344.75 10311.63
2008 October 67 14800 10394.58 10369.67
2008 November 68 7960 10492.67 10443.63
2008 December 69 6858 10773.67 10633.17
2009 January 70 9438 11027.58 10900.63
2009 February 71 8487 11059.25 11043.42
2009 March 72 10609 11563.58 11311.42
2009 April 73 11282 11813.25 11688.42
2009 May 74 12870 12116.92 11965.08
2009 June 75 17811 12505.17 12311.04
2009 July 76 12128 13045.75 12775.46
2009 August 77 10161 13466.17 13255.96
2009 September 78 16359 13802.75 13634.46
2009 October 79 17796 14170.67 13986.71
2009 November 80 11604 14485.92 14328.29
2009 December 81 11517 14285.92 14385.92
2010 January 82 15925 14403.08 14344.5
2010 February 83 13532 14594.17 14498.63
2010 March 84 14648 14589.25 14591.71
2010 April 85 15697 15054.42 14821.83
2010 May 86 16653 15502 15278.21
2010 June 87 15411 15803.5 15652.75
2010 July 88 13534 16095.58 15949.54
2010 August 89 12454 16429.08 16262.33
2010 September 90 16300 16693.58 16561.33
2010 October 91 23378 16863.83 16778.71
2010 November 92 16975 16972.08 16917.96
2010 December 93 15135 17483.83 17227.96
2011 January 94 19430 17664.25 17574.04
2011 February 95 17534 17881.33 17772.79
2011 March 96 17822 18482 18181.67
2011 April 97 17740 19077.08 18779.54
2011 May 98 17952 19010.42 19043.75
2011 June 99 21552 19025.42 19017.92
2011 July 100 15699 18902.08 18963.75
2011 August 101 15059 18568.75 18735.42
2011 September 102 23508 18338.08 18453.42
2011 October 103 30519
2011 November 104 16175
2011 December 105 15315
2012 January 106 17950
2012 February 107 13534
2012 March 108 15054