第15回COE研究会 2005年5月13日

A Latent Class Accelerated Hazard

Model of Activity Episode Durations

Backjin LEE

Research Assoc.
Hiroshima
Hi University Transportation Engineering Laboratory (HITEL)
HITEL
Graduate School for IDEC, Hiroshima University

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Outline

Š Introduction
„ An activity-travel diary of a house wife
„ Trip-based model vs. Activity-based model

Š Aims

Š Model Development
„ Survival analysis for activity episode durations
„ Latent Class Accelerated Hazard (LCAH) Model

Š Empirical Study

Š Conclusions

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 Introduction: Transportation models

Š The role of transportation models in multi-dimensional transportation

problems (ex. Congestion, pollution, accident, financial deficits, etc.)
„ Support decision making (country, government, people)
„ Make predictions (ex. transport demand) in the uncertain circumstance
z Changing infrastructure,
z Changing behavior of people
z Changing socio-demographic circumstance
z …

Š The aim of these models is to represent reality as accurate as possible.

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Introduction : Activity-based model

Š To obtain better understanding travel behavior

- daily life & travel behavior: an activity-travel diary of a housewife
Activity TRAVEL
Time of
start Method of With whom+how
Activity type Location With whom
travel many compaines
00 00 Sleep Home
07 00 Wash Home
07 20 Eat Home Husband, Kid
08 00 Watch TV Home
09 00 Move Private car Kid, 1 person
09 30 Shopping DDD shopping center Kid
10 30 Move Private car Kid, 1 person
11 20 Clean Home
12 30 Eat Home Kid
13 10 Watch TV Home
15 20 Move Walk Kid, 1 person

15 35 Meet friend AAA park Friend

: : : : : : :
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 Introduction : Activity-based model

Š Representation the daily life & travel behavior of a housewife

SPACE
Wife

Shop
Shops
Meet friend
Park
Car Car
Walk Walk Watch film
Cinema
Sleep Clean Car Car Sleep
Home
Eat Eat TV Eat

6:00am 9:00am 12:00am 3:00pm 6:00pm 9:00pm 12:00pm

TIME

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Introduction : Activity-based model

Conventional approach: Trip-based model of travel demand

SPACE
Wife

Modeling trips as independent and isolated

No time component
No sequential information
Shops

Park
Car Car
Walk Walk
Cinema
Car Car
Home

6:00am 9:00am 12:00am 3:00pm 6:00pm 9:00pm 12:00pm

TIME

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 Introduction : Activity-based model

Activity-based model of travel demand

SPACE Husband
Wife
Work Work
Office
Restaurant Walk Walk
Eat
Bus Bus

Shop
Shops
Meet friend
Park
Car Car
Walk Walk Watch film
Cinema
Sleep Clean Car Car Sleep
Home
Eat Eat TV Eat

6:00am 9:00am 12:00am 3:00pm 6:00pm 9:00pm 12:00pm

TIME

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Introduction : Activity-based model

Š Travel demand is a derived demand from the activities that individuals

need/wish to perform
Š Sequences or patterns of behaviour, and not individual trips, are the unit
of analysis
Š Household (ex. Interaction among household members) and other social
structures (ex. Friends) influence travel and activity behaviour
Š Spatial, temporal, transportation and interpersonal interdependencies
constrain activity/travel behaviour
Š Activity-based approaches reflect the scheduling of activities in time and
space.

Æ Activity-based approaches aim at predicting which activities are

conducted where, when, for how long, with whom, the transport mode
involved and ideally also the implied route decisions.

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 Aims and Scope

Š Aims
„ To investigate how long certain types of activity episodes generating the trip
„ To develop a methodological framework of Latent Class Accelerated
Hazard (LCAH) model, which can investigate the direct relationship
between the covariates and activity episode durations as well as allow the
heterogeneity among individuals.
SPACE

Shop
Shops
Meet friend
Park
Car Car
Walk Walk Watch film
Cinema
Sleep Clean Car Car Sleep
Home
Eat Eat TV Eat

6:00am 9:00am 12:00am 3:00pm 6:00pm 9:00pm 12:00pm

TIME
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Model Development: Survival Analysis

Š Survival analysis, originating in biomedical statistics, can provide a

simple means for describing the relationship between duration
probabilities and covariates such as income or number of children
(Niemeier and Morita, 1994)

Š For non-negative time t,

„ The probability that the event time is less than or equal to t:
F (t ) = Pr{T ≤ t}
„ The probability of surviving at t, for any non-negative t:
S (t ) = 1 − F (t ) = Pr{T f t}
„ The probability that the event is ceased in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+dt):
λ (t ) = f (t ) / S (t )
where, f (t ) is the probability density function at a point t.
d
f (t ) = F (t )
dt
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 Model Development: LCAH Model

Š Accelerated Hazard Model

„ Assume a homogeneous population, parametric AH model for continuous
activity duration (T ), parametric AH model
ln(T ) = u ( X ; β ) + σZ
Š Latent Class Accelerated Hazard (AH) Model
„ Assume K different homogeneous latent classes exist in the heterogeneous
population, parametric LCAH model for continuous activity duration (T ),
parametric AH model;
ln(T ) = u ( X ; β k ) + σ k Z k
where, u ( X ; β k ) = β k′ X , Z k = {ln(T ) − u ( X ; β k )}/ σ k
X :covariate vector
β :covariate vector
σ :scale parameter
Z :random variable with a standard distribution

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Model Development: LCAH Model

„ If assume that Z has the generalized log-gamma distribution

„ Probability density function
⎧ λ −2
−2 (λ )
⎡ λ Z − exp(λ Z ) ⎤
f o ( Z ; λ ) = ⎪⎪ Γ(λ− 2 ) (λ ) exp⎢ λ2
⎥, λ ≠ 0
⎨ ⎢
⎣ ⎦⎥
⎪ 1 exp ⎡ 1 Z 2 ⎤ , λ =0
⎪⎩ 2π ⎢⎣ 2 ⎥⎦

where, λ : shape parameter

„ Survival function

S0 ( Z ; λ ) = 1 − I [λ−2 , λ−2 exp( Zλ )]

1 m

)∫
−2
where, I ( λ , m ) = uλ −1 − u
e du
Γ( λ −2 0

:incomplete gamma distribution

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 Model Development: LCAH Model

„ Let Pik denote the prior probability that an individual (i) belongs to latent
class k and assume that the class membership probability mainly depends on
vector of household characteristics Di
exp(α k + γ k Di )
Pik = K −1
, k ≠ k′
1 + ∑ exp(α k ′ + γ k ′ Di )
k ′ =1
where, α , γ : vectors of parameters
„ The log-likelihood function for individual (i)
N ⎧K ⎡ 1 ⎤⎫
LL = ∑ ln ⎨∑ Pik ⎢{ f o ( Z i / k ; λk )}δ i {S o ( Z i / k ; λk )}1−δ i ⎥ ⎬
i =1 ⎩ k =1 ⎣ σ k ⎦⎭
where, δ i = 1, if Ti is not censored and 0 is otherwise

„ The optimal number of latent classes:

Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)=LL-0.5*P*ln(N)
where, P : The number of parameters

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Empirical Study: Data

Š Two-day activity-travel diary survey

Š City of eindhoven and 3 small neighbouring city’s Best, Son en Breugel
and Waalre, located in the south of the Netherlands
Š In total, 3268 people invited to participate through the mail. Of these,
628 completed the questionnaire
Š Respondents were asked to complete a two-day activity-travel diary of
all household members older than 12 years of age
Š Activity duration was measured in terms of open time intervals
Š Activity type, duration, mode (travel time/waiting time), destination,
company, etc.
Š Socio-economic characteristics

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 Empirical Study: Classification of activities

Š Maintenance
„ Meals, Shower, Cleaning, etc.
Š Work/Personal business

Š Out-of-home activities
„ Daily shopping
„ Non-daily shopping
„ Out-of-home leisure
Š In-home activities
„ In-home task
„ In-home leisure

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Empirical Study: Explanatory variables

Š Household characteristics (D)

„ Household type (Living alone/couples and family)
„ Employment status of female spouse
„ Household income
„ The number of children less than 12 years of age in household
„ The number of car available in household

Š Individual and Activity episode characteristics (X)

„ Work and Personal business durations (min.)
„ Travel time to work and personal business (min.)

„ Activity alone (With whom)

„ Travel time to a current activity place (min.)

„ Age, Gender

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 Estimation results: The optimal number of latent classes

Daily shopping Non-daily shopping Out-of-home leisure In-home task In-home leisure
Number of
Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend
latent classes
N=217 N=86 N=174 N=91 N=607 N=677 N=1765 N=1116 N=1548 N=1233

P 12 10 12 10 12 10 11 9 11 9
1-latent
LL -243.99 -86.34 -233.64 -115.26 -742.88 -876.23 -2161.45 -1407.05 -1999.10 -1606.56
class
BIC -258.01 -108.61 -264.59 -137.81 -781.33 -908.58 -2206.57 -1438.63 -2039.50 -1638.59

P 31 27 31 27 31 27 29 25 29 25
2-latent
LL -177.92 -50.97 -170.01 -98.52 -621.34 -786.26 -1825.55 -1246.01 -1675.48 -1479.92
class
BIC -261.31 -111.10 -249.97 -159.42 -720.67 -874.25 -1933.95 -1333.72 -1781.49 -1568.88

P 50 44 50 44 50 44 47 41 47 41
3-latent
LL -114.77 -24.41 -135.56 -110.12 -568.68 -656.12 -1706.13 -1165.24 -1596.98 -1420.10
class
BIC -248.50 -122.40 -264.54 -209.36 -668.02 -799.51 -1782.43 -1309.09 -1769.58 -1566.00
P 69 61 69 61 69 61 65 57 65 57
4-latent
LL -105.05 -25.87 -99.59 -110.23 -486.60 -506.81 -1611.60 -1083.52 -1644.22 -1278.14
class
BIC -290.66 -161.73 -277.58 -247.81 -707.69 -705.60 -1854.57 -1283.52 -1882.92 -1480.98
P na na na na na 78 na 73 na 73
5-latent
LL na na na na na -476.98 na -1052.58 na -1224.92
class
BIC na na na na na -731.1 na -1308.7 na -1484.69
st
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Estimation results: Daily and non-daily shopping

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Estimation results: Out-of-home leisure

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Estimation results: In-home task and leisure

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 Estimation Results: Expected mean durations (1)

Daily shopping
Weekday Weekend
AH 22.0 min. 25.5 min.
Baseline 19.5 min.
LCAH Yong couples with two workers 33.0 min.
Middle-aged families with two workers 16.0 min.
Non-daily shopping
AH 23.5 min. 39.0 min.
Baseline 12.8 min.
LCAH Yong/middle-aged couples with two 37.5 min.
workers
In-home task
AH 33.5 min. 31.5 min.
Baseline 17.0 min. Baseline 17.5 min.
Less number of cars available 58.0 min. Young couples with two workers 69.0 min.
LCAH
Middle-aged families with two workers 26.0 min. Middle-aged families with one worker 28.0 min.
Young families with two workers 28.5 min.

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Estimation Results: Expected mean durations (1)

Out-of-home leisure
Weekday Weekend
AH 56.0 min. 64.5 min.
Baseline 38.5 min. Baseline 18.5 min.
Young couples with one worker 118.0 min. Young couples with two workers 148.0 min.
LCAH
Old-aged families 53.0 min. Young families with two workers 69.0 min.
Young families with one worker 60.5 min.
In-home leisure
AH 54.5 min. 69.5 min.
Baseline 36.5 min. Baseline 78.0 min.
Old-aged couples with one worker 30.5 min. Old-aged couples with one worker 151.0 min.
LCAH
Old-aged couples with two workers 104.0 min. Middle-aged families with one worker 45.0 min.
Young couples with one worker 39.0 min.

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 Estimation Results: Expected mean durations (1)

Out-of-home leisure
Weekday Weekend
AH 56.0 min. 64.5 min.
Baseline 38.5 min. Baseline 18.5 min.
Young couples with one worker 118.0 min. Young couples with two workers 148.0 min.
LCAH
Old-aged families 53.0 min. Young families with two workers 69.0 min.
Young families with one worker 60.5 min.
In-home leisure
AH 54.5 min. 69.5 min.
Baseline 36.5 min. Baseline 78.0 min.
Old-aged couples with one worker 30.5 min. Old-aged couples with one worker 151.0 min.
LCAH
Old-aged couples with two workers 104.0 min. Middle-aged families with one worker 45.0 min.
Young couples with one worker 39.0 min.

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Estimation Results: Expected mean durations (1)

Out-of-home leisure
Weekday Weekend
AH 56.0 min. 64.5 min.
Baseline 38.5 min. Baseline 18.5 min.
Young couples with one worker 118.0 min. Young couples with two workers 148.0 min.
LCAH
Old-aged families 53.0 min. Young families with two workers 69.0 min.
Young families with one worker 60.5 min.
In-home leisure
AH 54.5 min. 69.5 min.
Baseline 36.5 min. Baseline 78.0 min.
Old-aged couples with one worker 30.5 min. Old-aged couples with one worker 151.0 min.
LCAH
Old-aged couples with two workers 104.0 min. Middle-aged families with one worker 45.0 min.
Young couples with one worker 39.0 min.

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 Estimation Results: Hazard rates (2)

(a) Daily shopping on weekdays (b) Daily shopping on weekends

0.5 0.5
No heterogeneity
Latent class1 Baseline
0.4 Latent class2 0.4
Baseline

Hazard rate
Hazard rate

0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Time (minutes) Time (minutes)

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Estimation Results: Hazard rates (2)

(c) Non-daily shopping on weekdays (d) Non-daily shopping on weekends

0.2 0.2
No heterogeneity
Latent class1 Baseline
Baseline
0.15 0.15
Hazard rate
Hazard rate

0.1 0.1

0.05 0.05

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Time (minutes) Time (minutes)

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 Estimation Results: Hazard rates (2)

(c) Non-daily shopping on weekdays (d) Non-daily shopping on weekends

0.2 0.2
No heterogeneity
Latent class1 Baseline
Baseline
0.15 0.15

Hazard rate
Hazard rate

0.1 0.1

0.05 0.05

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Time (minutes) Time (minutes)

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Estimation Results: Hazard rates (2)

(e) Out of home leisure on weekdays (f) Out of home leisure on weekends
0.2 0.2
No heterogeneity No heterogeneity
LC1 LC1
0.15
Out of home leisure LC2
0.15
LC2
LC3
Baseline
Baseline
Hazard rate

Hazard rate

0.1 0.1

0.05 0.05

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Time (minutes) Time (minutes)

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 Estimation Results: Hazard rates (2)

(g) In home task on weekdays (h) In home task on weekends

0.2 0.2
No heterogeneity No heterogeneity
LC1 LC1
LC2 LC2
0.15 Out of home leisure Baseline 0.15 LC3
Baseline
Hazard rate

Hazard rate
0.1 0.1

0.05 0.05

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Time (minutes) Time (minutes)

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Conclusions

Š This paper reports the findings of the first latent class accelerated hazard
(LCAH) model in transportation
„ The LCAH model offers a household class level interpretation of heterogeneity by
allowing different hazard rates of activity durations among latent classes
„ In the empirical study, the LCAH model suggested that heterogeneity was strongly
related to household characteristics:
the presence of children and
the employment status of female spouse
„ The LCAH model alleviates the downward bias of the estimates of median (and mean)
hazard rates over time by allowing different hazard rates of activity durations among
latent classes
„ In particular, the estimated parameters for shopping episode duration suggest that some
clear distinctive latent classes can be found for weekdays. In contrast, for weekends,
these classes fade away.

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