Beruflich Dokumente
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Risk in Capital Budgeting
Cash Flows as Random Variables
• “Risk” in every day usage: the probability that something bad will
happen
• “Risk” in financial theory: Associated with random variables and
their probability distributions
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Cash Flows as Random Variables
• Risk – the chance that a random variable will take on a value
significantly different from the expected value
• In capital budgeting the future period's cash flow estimate is a random
variable
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Figure 12‐1 The Probability Distribution of a
Future Cash Flow as a Random Variable
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Cash Flows as Random Variables
• The NPV and IRR are random variables with their own probability
distributions
• Actual value may be different than the mean
• The amount the actual value is different from expected is related to the
variance or standard deviation
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Figure 12‐2 Risk in Estimated
Cash Flows
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The Importance of Risk in
Capital Budgeting
• Until now we have viewed cash flows as point estimates – a single
number rather than a range of possibilities
• Actual cash flows are estimates, a wrong decision could be made
using point estimates for NPV and IRR
• The riskiness of a project's cash flows must be considered
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Figure 12‐3 Project NPVs Reflecting Risky
Cash Flows
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The Importance of Risk in Capital Budgeting
• Risk Aversion
• Changing the Nature of a Company
• A company is a portfolio of projects
• Ignoring risk when undertaking new projects can change the firm’s overall
risk characteristics
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Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
• Select a worst, most likely, and best case for each cash flow
• Recalculate the project's NPV (or IRR) under several
scenarios
• Gives an intuitive sense of the variability of NPV
• Also called sensitivity analysis
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Concept Connection Example 12‐1 Scenario
Analysis
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Concept Connection Example 12‐1 Scenario
Analysis
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Concept Connection Example 12‐1 Scenario
Analysis
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Computer (Monte Carlo) Simulation
• Assume separate probability distribution for each cash flow
• Computer draws observation from each and calculates NPV
• Sort outcomes into histogram of probability distribution of NPV (next
slide)
• Drawbacks
• Probability distributions are difficult to estimate
• Cash flows tend to be correlated
• Interpretation of results is subjective
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Figure 12‐4 Results of Monte Carlo
Simulation for NPV
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Decision Tree Analysis
• Decision Tree: A graphic representation of a project
in which certain events have multiple outcomes
• Decision Tree Analysis – Develops a probability
distribution of NPV given the probabilities of certain
events within the project
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Figure 12‐5 A Simple Decision Tree
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Concept Connection Example 12‐2 Decision
Tree Analysis
The Wing Foot Shoe Company is considering a new
running shoe. A market study indicates a 60%
probability that demand will be good and a 40%
chance that it will be poor.
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Concept Connection Example 12‐2 Decision
Tree Analysis
A decision tree diagram and NPVs along each path are:
NPV
0 1 2 3 $2.461M
P = .6 $3M $3M $3M
($5M)
P = .4 $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M $‐1.270M
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Concept Connection Example 12‐3 More
Complex Decision Trees
Wing Foot now feels there are two possibilities along the
upper branch.
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Concept Connection Example 12‐3 More
Complex Decision Trees
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Concept Connection Example 12‐3 More
Complex Decision Trees
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Concept Connection Example 12‐3 More
Complex Decision Trees
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Concept Connection Example 12‐3 More
Complex Decision Trees
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Incorporating Risk Into Capital Budgeting
Risk Adjusted Rates of Return
The cost of capital (k) plays a key role in both NPV and IRR.
• For NPV • For IRR
• k is used as the discount rate • Compare IRR to k
• A higher k leads to lower NPV • A higher k leads to a lower chance that
reducing the chance of project IRR>k reducing probability of project
acceptance acceptance
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Risk Adjusted Rates of Return
• Risk Aversion => We want to develop an analysis technique that
makes riskier projects less likely to be accepted
• We do that with NPV and IRR by using :
• Cost of capital (k) for normally risky projects
• Higher rates for riskier projects
• The more risky the project, the higher the rate
• These are known as “risk adjusted rates”
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Incorporating Risk Into
Capital Budgeting
• Alternate Wording:
• Riskier Projects Should Be Less Acceptable
• Using higher, risk‐adjusted rates for risky projects lowers their chance of
acceptance
• The Starting Point for Risk‐Adjusted Rates is the
firm’s current risk level reflected in its cost of capital
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Risk Adjusted Rates of Return
• Choosing the Risk‐Adjusted Rate for Various Projects
• An arbitrary, subjective process
• Three categories of increasing risk
• Replacements – low risk, use cost of capital
• Expansion projects ‐ slightly more risky than the current level – add 1‐3%
• New ventures – generally involve a lot more risk – look to companies in the
business
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Estimating Risk‐Adjusted Rates
Using CAPM
• The project as a diversification
• If viewed as a collection of projects, a new
venture diversifies the firm
• A new venture also diversifies the stockholders’ investment portfolios
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Estimating Risk‐Adjusted Rates
Using CAPM
• The project as a diversification
• Diversifiable and non‐diversifiable risk for projects
• Projects have two levels of diversifiable risk
• Some risk diversified away within the firm's portfolio of projects
• Some risk diversified away by the shareholders' investment portfolios
• The remaining risk is systematic risk
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Figure 12‐7 Components of Project Risk
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Estimating the Risk‐Adjusted Rate Through
Beta
• The Security Market Line (SML) can be used to determine a risk‐
adjusted rate for a new venture
• SML: kx = kRF + (kM ‐ kRF) bX
• bX = beta = the measure of a company's systematic risk
• If a project is viewed as a business in a particular field, use a beta
common to that field to estimate a risk‐adjusted rate for project
analysis
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Concept Connection Example 12‐6 Risk‐
Adjusted Rates ‐ SML
Orion Inc. makes radio communications equipment.
beta = 1.1 cost of capital = 8%
Considering a venture into risky military radios.
Military radio market is dominated by
Milrad Inc. - 60% market share, beta = 1.4
Antex Radio Corp. - 20% market share, beta = 2.0
Both make only military radios.
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Concept Connection Example 12‐6 Risk‐
Adjusted Rates ‐ SML
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Problems with the
Theoretical Approach
• It is often difficult to find a pure play firm from which to
obtain an appropriate beta
• If a pure play division is found within a corporation,
estimate the beta of that division using the accounting
beta method (8e page 535)
• Systematic risk may not be only important risk
• If total risk is important, an even higher risk‐adjusted rate
would be appropriate
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Certainty Equivalents (CE)
• Management develops lower, risk free (certain) cash flows
that are as attractive as the risky cash flows in the forecast.
• Then calculate a risk adjusted NPV or IRR with those lower
but certain cash flows
• Alternatively choose a CE factor (0< 1) for each cash flow and
multiply.
• CE factors generally decline as they proceed further into
the future
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A Final Comment on Risk in Capital Budgeting
• Virtually every firm of any size uses capital budgeting techniques
• But few explicitly include risk
• Business managers recognize risk but they do it through subjective
judgments
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