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FRM 2017
Part 2
Book 2 – Credit Risk Measurement and
the best FRM revision course!
Reading: The Credit Decision (Chapter 1, Jonathan Golin and Philippe Delhaise, The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook
(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2013))

1. Credit Risk: It is the probability that the borrower will not repay the loan in accordance to the terms of
2. Components of Credit Risk:
a. The capacity and willingness to repay of obligor
b. External environment (Operating conditions, country risk, etc.)
c. Characteristic of relevant credit instrument (Product, facility, issue etc.)
d. Quality and sufficiency of any credit risk mitigants (Collateral, Guarantees, Credit enhancements etc.)
3. Qualitative & Quantitative Techniques:
a. Qualitative technique are primarily used to assess the borrowers willingness to repay the loan and
quantitative techniques are used to assess the ability to repay
b. Gathering information from different sources, face to face interviews, past loan information etc. are
used as some qualitative techniques
c. Analyzing financial statements is the primary quantitative technique
4. Measures to evaluate credit risk:
a. PD (Probability of default): Likelihood that borrower will default
b. LGD (Loss Given default): Likely percentage loss in case of default
c. EAD(Exposure at Default): Amount outstanding at time of default
d. EL (Expected Loss): PD x LGD x EAD
5. Bank Solvency: Bank insolvency does not mean that bank failure. A bank maybe insolvent but avoid failure as
long as it has sources of liquidity like the Federal Reserve.
Reading: The Credit Analyst (Chapter 2, Jonathan Golin and Philippe Delhaise, The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook
(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2013))

1. Credit Analyst Roles:

a. Consumer Credit Analyst: Works with individual consumer mortgages, with key objective being detailed
b. Credit Modelling Analyst: Focused on electronic scoring system, roles include developing, testing,
implementing and updating various credit scoring systems
c. Corporate Credit Analyst: Scope of analyst is limited to corporations.
d. Counterparty Credit Analyst: Analyze two-way counterparties, performs credit reviews, approves limits,
develops/ updates credit policies and procedures
2. Functions:
a. Counterparty Credit Analyst: Perform risk evaluation of a given entity on a transaction by transaction
basis or through annual review. Additionally, she may be required for compliance tasks related to Basel
2 and 3
b. Fixed Income and Equity Analyst: Provide recommendations whether to buy, sell or hold securities.
Fixed income analysts focus on determining relative value while equity analyst focus on return on equity
3. Basic Skills:
a. Able to read and interpret financial statements
b. Background in statistical concepts and macroeconomics
4. Sources of Information:
a. Corporation websites, internet, rating agencies report, regulatory filings etc.
Reading: Classifications and Key Concepts of Credit Risk (Chapter 2, Giacomo De Laurentis, Renato Maino, and Luca
Molteni, Developing, Validating and Using Internal Ratings (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2010))

1. Definitions:
a. Credit Ratings: They are a measure of borrower’s credit worthiness
b. Default Risk: Counterparty risk or default risk relates to a borrower’s inability to make promised
i. Recovery Risk: Recovered amount in the event of default is less than full amount
ii. Exposure Risk: Credit exposure at time of default increases relative to its current exposure
c. Valuation Risk:
i. Migration Risk: Credit quality and market value of an asset position could deteriorate over time
ii. Spread Risk: Spreads may change during adverse market conditions
iii. Liquidity Risk: Asset liquidity and value deteriorate during adverse market conditions
d. Marginal VaR: calculated incremental portfolio risk from an individual exposure
e. Economic Value Add: Measures economic profit and looks at additional returns generated relative to
cost of capital
2. Probability of Default: It can be determined using the following:
a. Analyzing historical default frequencies of a borrower’s homogenous asset class
b. Using mathematical and statistical tools
c. Using a hybrid approach
d. Extracting implicit default probabilities from market prices of publicly listed counterparties
3. Issues with VaR(Value at Risk) and EL(Expected Loss)
a. Do not account for concentration risk
Reading: Ratings Assignment Methodologies (Chapter 3, Giacomo De Laurentis, Renato Maino, and Luca Molteni,
Developing, Validating and Using Internal Ratings (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2010))

1. Definitions:
a. Migration frequency: describes how often ratings change from one class to another
b. Annualized Default Rate: A multi-year cumulative default rate can be broken down into a yearly ADR
c. LDA (Linear Discriminant Analysis): Reduced form model to develop scores to mae accept or reject
d. LOGIT (Logistic Regression): Model use to predict default based on relationships between independent
and dependent variables
e. Cluster Analysis: Identifies groups of similar data sets helping aggregate and segregate borrowers
f. Cash Flow Analysis: Used to assign ratings to companies that don’t have historical data
g. Heuristic methods: Predict default by mirroring human decision making process
2. Good Rating system:
a. Objectivity and Homogeneity: Ratings are comparable across market and only on credit risk
b. Specificity: It measures distance to default while ignoring other elements not tied to default
c. Measurability and verifiability: ratings are back tested and provide correct expectation of default
3. Default:

Probability of Default (PD) Cumulative PD Marginal PD

𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑡𝑡+𝑘 ∑𝑖=𝑡+𝑘 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑖 𝑃𝐷𝑘
𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
= 𝑃𝐷𝑡+𝑘 − 𝑃𝐷𝑡𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
𝑃𝐷𝑘 = 𝑃𝐷𝑘 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑡 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑡

4. ADR (Annualized Default Rate):

a. Discrete ADR: 1 − √1 − PDcumulative

t )
b. Continuous ADR: −
5. Structural approach vs. reduced form approach
a. Structural approach (Merton model): Building a model involves estimating formal relationships that link
relevant variables of the model
b. Reduced form models(statistical or numerical): use variables that are statistically suitable without
factoring in theoretical relationships among variables
ln V−ln F
6. Merton Model (Distance to Default): DtD = where F is face value of debt, V is asset value σ is

standard deviation of asset value

Reading: Default Risk: Credit Risks and Credit Derivatives (Chapter 18, René Stulz, Risk Management & Derivatives
(Florence, KY: Thomson South-Western, 2002))

1. Merton Model: Refer previous chapter for notes

2. Credit Spreads: It is the difference between the yield on risk bond and risk free bond. As the time to maturity
increases credit spreads tend to widen. As risk free rate increases, value of firm increases, which in turn
decreases risk of default
3. Firm Volatility: Delta is the rate of change of the call option relative to change in value of the underlying asset.
Changes in Delta indicate the value of equity volatility is not constant ad I referred to as volatility smirk. The non-
constant volatility is a violation of BSM
4. Subordinate Debt: In distress (low firm value), volatility of financial firm will increase, value of subordinate debt
will increase while value of senior debt will decline. This is because subordinate debt behaves like equity when
the firm has low value and behaves like senior debt when the firm is not in financial distress
5. Interest rate Dynamics: Increases in interest rate will decrease the value of debt. To hedge debt, we need to
account for the interactions between changing interest rate and firm value.
6. Difficulties with Merton Model:
a. Firms capital structure is more complex than assumed
b. Merton model does not allow for jumps in the firm value (Defaults are surprises)
ln(F)− ln(V)−μ(T−t)+0.5σ2 (T−t)
c. PD using Merton Model: PD = N ( ) and
ln(F)− ln(V)−μ(T−t)−0.5σ2 (T−t)
LGD = F ×PD − Veμ(T−t) ×N ( ) where

i. F is face value of zero coupon bond,

ii. V is value of firm,
iii. T is maturity date of bond,
iv. σ is volatility of firm value,
v. μ is expected return on value of firm
7. Credit Risk Portfolio Models:

Model Name Explanation

Credit Risk+ Measures credit risk using common risk factors. There are only two outcomes: Default or no-default.
The PD is dependent on the credit ratings and sensitivity to each risk factor. All risk factors have a mean
value of +1. The risk factors are assumed to follow a gamma distribution. If the value of risk factor
increases, the probability of default increases
Credit Metrics It is used to calculate credit VaR of large portfolios. Calculate PV of all debt flows using forward rates
obtained from the spot rate curve for each rating category. Multiply the probability of rating change
with the mean value obtained. IN cumulative probability, look at significance level and the value is VaR
Moody’s KMV It calculates EDF(Expected Default Frequency) for each obligor. It solves for firm value and volatility. The
primary advantage is that it uses current equity values
Credit Portfolio It models the rating transition matrix using macroeconomic cycle data. Macroeconomic factors are
View considered the prime moving factors in default rates.

8. Credit Derivatives:
a. Credit Default Put: It pays on maturity on the default of the debt.
b. Credit Default Swap: The purchaser of CDS seeks credit protection. The purchaser will make fixed
payments to the seller of CDS for the life of the swap or until a credit event occurs
c. Total Rate of Return Swaps (TORR): The exchange of total return on a bond for a floating rate (e.g.LIBOR)
plus a specified spread. The total return also includes both capital gains and cash flows (e.g. Coupons)
over the life of the swap
d. Vulnerable Options: An option holder receives the option payment only if the seller of the option is able
to make the payments. The correlation between the value of the firm and the underlying asset value is
important for valuation of the vulnerable options.
Reading: Spread Risk and Default Intensity Models (Chapter 7, Allan Malz, Financial Risk Management: Models, History,
and Institutions (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2011))

1. Credit Spreads: Difference in yields between the security and a reference security of the same maturity
a. Yield Spread: YTM Risky Bond – YTM of govt. Bond
b. i-spread: YTM Risky Bond – Linearly interpolated YTM of govt. bond
c. z-spread(zero coupon): spread that must be added to the Libor spot curve to arrive at the market price
d. asset-swap spread: spread on the floating leg of an asset swap on a bond
e. credit default swap spread: is the market premium of a CDS on similar bonds of the same issuer
f. Option adjusted spread: version of the z-spread that takes account of options embedded in the bonds
2. Spread’01: Change in the bond price from a 1 basis point change in the z spread
3. Hazard Rate: The hazard rate, also called the default intensity, denoted λ, is the parameter driving default
a. Cumulative probability of default is given as 1 − e−λt and that of survival is e−λt
b. As t grows large, default probability converges to 1 and survival probability to 0
4. Risk neutral hazard rates: λ𝑡 ≈
5. Advantages of Using CDS for Hazard Rate: Primary advantage is that CDS rates are observable. CDS has large
liquid contracts for longer maturities.
6. Spread Risk: Change in the value of securities from changing spreads. Entire CDS curve is shocked p and down by
0.5 basis points to compute the CDS mark to market value. Spread risk can also be measured by the historical or
forward looking standard deviation of credit spreads.
Reading: Portfolio Credit Risk (Chapter 8, Allan Malz, Financial Risk Management: Models, History, and Institutions
(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2011))

1. Default Correlation: the likelihood of having multiple defaults in a portfolio of debt issued by several obligors.
π12 − π1 π2
a. ρ12 =
√π1 (1−π1 )√π2 (1−π2 )

2. Credit VaR: Defined as the quantile of the credit loss less the expected loss
a. If default correlation in a portfolio of credits is equal to 1, then the portfolio behaves as if it consisted of
just one credit. No credit diversification is achieved
b. If default correlation is equal to 0, then the number of defaults in the portfolio is a binomially distributed
random variable
c. Credit VaR is higher for higher probability of default but decreases as credit portfolio becomes more
granular, that is, contains more independent credits, each of which is a smaller fraction of the portfolio
3. Single Factor Model (Conditional Default Model): Used to examine impact of varying default correlation based
on a credit position. Each firm i, has a default correlation βi with market return m. The firms asset return is

defined as: ai = βi m + √1 − β2i εi where mean is βi m and standard deviation is √1 − β2i

4. Credit VaR with Single Factor Model (Unconditional Distribution): 𝑥(𝑚) = Φ [ ] where m is realized

market return, β2 is default correlation and Φ means standard normal value. The probability of reaching the
default threshold is the same as the probability that market return is m or lower i.e. Φ(m).
5. Credit VaR using Copula: Define the copula function, simulate default times, obtain market values and profit
and loss data for each scenario, compute portfolio distribution statistics
Reading: Portfolio Credit Risk (Chapter 9, Allan Malz, Financial Risk Management: Models, History, and Institutions
(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2011))

1. Definitions:
a. Securitization: Pooling of credit sensitive assets and creation of new securities
b. Capital Structure: Refers to the priority assigned to the tranches of a securitized asset
c. Credit Enhancements: can be external or internal
i. External: Credit protection is through swaps or insurance.

ii. Internal: Over-collaterlization or excess spread provide credit protection

d. Waterfall Structure: Outlines rules that govern distribution of cash flows to different tranches
e. Default 01: PD is shocked by 10 bps and tranches are revalued using simulations
2. Three-tiered Securitization Structure:
a. Has three tranches (Equity, Mezzanine and Senior)
b. Equity tranche has the lowest priority
3. Simulation of Credit losses
a. Estimate parameters like Default rate, pair-wise correlations and generate simulation
b. Compute losses for each simulation run
4. Effects on Tranche Values
a. Senior Tranche
i. As PD or Correlations increase, value of Senior tranche declines
b. Equity Tranche
i. As Correlation increases, value of equity tranche increases
ii. As PD increases, value of Equity tranche decreases
c. Mezzanine Tranche
i. When PD and correlations are low, it resembles a Senior tranche
ii. When PD and correlation are high, it resembles a equity tranche
Reading: Defining Counterparty Credit Risk (Chapter 3, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value adjustment:
A Continuing Challenge for Global Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012).

1. Definitions:
a. Counterparty Credit Risk: Counterparty is unable or unwilling to fulfill contractual obligations
b. Repos: Short term lending agreements usually secured by collateral.
c. Credit Exposure: Loss that is conditional on counterparty defaulting
2. Methods to manage counterparty risk:
a. Cross Product netting: Netting agreement allows counter parties to net cross-product payments
b. Close-out: Immediate closing of all contracts with a counter party
c. Collateralization: Collateral to support net exposure between counter parties
d. Walk-away: Allows party to cancel all transactions if a counterparty defaults
e. Central Counterparties: Routing transactions through exchanges
Reading: (Chapter 4, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value adjustment: A Continuing Challenge for Global
Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012).

1. Definitions:
a. ISDA Agreement: International Swaps and Derivative Association (ISDA)Master agreement standardizes
OTC agreements to reduce legal certainties and mitigate credit risk
b. Acceleration Clause: Allows acceleration of future payments on some credit events
c. Reset agreement: readjusts parameters that are heavily in the money by resetting the trade to be at the
d. Trade Compression: Reduction in net exposure by removing portfolio redundancies among trade with
multiple counterparties
2. Netting and Close out:
a. Netting refers to combining cash flows from different contracts with the same counterparty into a single
net amount
b. Close out netting: netting of contract values in the event of counterparties default
Reading: (Chapter 5, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value adjustment: A Continuing Challenge for Global
Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012).

1. Definitions:
a. Collateral: An asset supporting a risk in legally enforceable way
b. Valuation Agent: Calculate exposure, credit support amounts, delivery or return of collateral
c. Credit Support Annex: Incorporated into ISDA agreement allows parties to mitigate credit risk through
posting of collateral
d. Threshold: Level of exposure below which collateral will not be called
e. Rehypothecation: refers to posting of collateral to other counterparties
2. Types of Collateral Used: Cash, Government Securities. Can also include MBS, Corporate Bonds, and Commercial
Reading: Central Counterparties (Chapter 7, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value Adjustment: A
Continuing Challenge for Global Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012))

1. Objective of CCP: To reduce counterparty risks and provide a safety net for systemic risks

2. Functions of CCP:
a. CCP positions itself between two parties of a transaction, this is called novation

b. Requires initial as well as variation margins

c. Maintains a fund called default fund or reserve fund

3. Weakness of CCP:

a. OTC derivatives are illiquid, long-dated and complex compared to exchange traded derivatives and
hence are a challenge

b. CCP’s clearing OTC products will become systemically important themselves creating a moral hazard
during times of distress

c. CCP’s introduce more costs

d. Mutualisation means all members are treated in the same way. Most credit-worthy members may see
less advantage of their stronger credit quality.

4. Loss Waterfall Model:

Example: Current Annual profits

Reading: Credit Exposure (Chapter 8, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value Adjustment: A Continuing
Challenge for Global Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012))

1. Definitions:
a. Expected Exposure(EE): Amount that is
expected to be lost in case of positive MtM
b. Potential Future Exposure(PFE): Estimate of
MtM value at some point in the future or the
worst exposure at a given time interval in the
future for a given confidence level
c. Expected Positive Exposure(EPE): It is the
average EE through time
d. Effective EE: Non-decreasing EE. Used to capture risk for roll-over transactions
e. Effective EPE: Average of Effective EE
f. Re-margin Period: Period from which a collateral call takes place to when the collateral is actually
2. Calculating EE and PFE
2 2
a. EE: 0.4 × σE × √ TM where σE is volatility of collateralized exposure and √ TM is re-margin frequency in
b. PFE: k × σE × √ TM where k is a constant depending on the confidence level (e.g. for 99% k=2.33)
c. Volatility if there are non-cash collateral: √σ12 + σ22 − 2σ1 σ2 ρ where σ1 and σ2 are volatilities of
underlying and collateral
3. Disadvantages of PFE:
a. It assumes a strongly collateralized position
b. It fails to account for collateral volatility
c. Liquidity and liquidation risks are not considered
d. Wrong way risk is not considered
Reading: Default Probability, Credit Spreads, and Credit Derivatives (Chapter 10, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk
and Credit Value Adjustment: A Continuing Challenge for Global Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John
Wiley & Sons, 2012))

1. Definitions:
a. Cumulative Default Probability: Represents the likelihood of counterparty default from current time to a
future date
b. Marginal Default Probability: Likelihood of counterparty default between two future points in time
c. Risk neutral default probability: Calculated from market information. They represent parameter value
from observed market price
d. Real world default probability: Calculated from historical data
2. Estimation approaches:
a. Historical data approach: Use historical default data to forecast future default probabilities
b. Equity based: Merton model, KMV are examples. It allows for dynamic approach to calculation
i. Merton Model: Equity value is call option with strike price as debt level. All debt is considered as
a single coupon payable at maturity.
ii. KMV: Relaxes certain assumptions in the Merton model
3. Index Tranches:
a. They create a capital structure for credit index whereby the loss is divided into mutually exclusive
ranges. The losses are absorbed sequentially by equity, mezzanine, senior and super-senior tranches
Reading: Credit Value Adjustment (Chapter 12, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value Adjustment: A
Continuing Challenge for Global Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012))

1. Definitions:
a. Credit Value: It is the price of counterparty credit risk. A positive CVA increases the costs of the
counterparty. It is calculated as CVA = LGD × ∑m
i=0 d(t i ) × EE(t i ) ×PD(t i−1 , t i )

i. d(t i ) are discount factors for future losses

b. Incremental CVA: it is the change in CVA that a new trade will create
c. Marginal CVA: Breaks down netted trades into trade level contributions to the sum total of CVA
2. CVA as running spread
a. To calculate a running spread, the following formula is used Spread = EPE ×Credit Spread
b. This is the amount a trader adds or subtracts from a trade leg as CVA
3. Impact of changes of Credit Spread/ Recovery rates on CVA
a. CVA increases with increase in Credit Spread
b. Increase in Recovery rate will reduce the CVA
Reading: Wrong Way Risk (Chapter 15, Jon Gregory, Counterparty Credit Risk and Credit Value Adjustment: A Continuing
Challenge for Global Financial Markets, 2nd Edition (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2012))

1. Definitions:
a. Wrong way Risk: Outcome of an association, dependence or linkage between exposure and
counterparty creditworthiness that generates an increase in counterparty risk.
Reading: Credit Scoring and Retail Credit Risk Management (Chapter 9, Michel Crouhy, Dan Galai and Robert Mark, The
Essentials of Risk Management, 2nd Edition (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2014))

1. Definitions:

a. Retail Banking: Large number of small value loans where incremental exposure of any single loan is small

b. Dark Side of Retail Credit: During economic troubles, there are sudden upward movements in default
rates and unexpected falls in collateral values
c. Characteristics: Information items/ Questions in credit applications

d. Attributes: Answers to the characteristics given

2. Credit Scoring Models:

a. Credit Bureau Scores: Known as FICO scores (350-800). They are provided by an agency like Fair Isaac
Corporation/ Equifax

b. Pooled Models: Models built by outside vendors by collecting data from various sources. More
expensive than generic scores like FICO

c. Custom Models: Models are developed in-house by collecting the data on internal customers. Most
expensive but are tailored and can offer the best risk adjusted pricing

d. Key Variables: DTI (Debt to Income), LTV (Loan to Value), PMT (Payment type like ARM’s)

3. Model/ Scorecard Performance

AR = Actual Defaults
AP = Model predicted defaults
Reading: The Credit Transfer Markets-and Their Implications (Chapter 12, Michel Crouhy, Dan Galai and Robert Mark,
The Essentials of Risk Management, 2nd Edition (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2014))

1. Flaws in subprime securitization

a. OTD (Originate to Distribute) model reduced the incentives for the bank to monitor the creditworthiness
of the borrower. Banks held many MBS in place of transferring risk.
b. Growth in CDS markets made credit risk easier to trade enhancing the perceived liquidity of credit
c. Low risk premiums and rising asset prices contributed to low default rates reinforcing perception of low
levels of risk
2. Techniques for Credit Risk Mitigation: Bond Insurance, Guarantees, Collateral, Early Termination(After a credit
event), Reassignment(Transfer to 3rd party after a credit event), Netting, Mark to Market, Loan Syndication,
Credit Default Swaps(CDS)

3. Credit Derivatives:

Credit Default
Swaps (CDS)

Total Return Swap


Credit Linked Note

Reading: An Introduction to Securitization (Moorad Choudhry, Structured Credit Products: Credit Derivatives & Synthetic
Securitization, 2nd Edition (John Wiley & Sons, 2010))

1. Definitions:

a. Securitization refers to the process of creation of asset backed securities from loan assets

b. First loss piece/ equity tranche: The most junior tranche because it is impacted by losses first.
c. Credit Enhancement: Measures that improve the rating of the ABS (Asset Backed Securities) e.g. Over
collateralization, Senior/ Junior tranches, excess spread

2. Structures of SPV used for securitization:

a. Amortizing: pay principal and interest on a coupon basis throughout the life

b. Revolving: During the revolving period, principal repayments are used to purchase new receivables
c. Master: Allows multiple securitization to be issued form same SPV

3. Performance Analysis:
a. DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio): Net Operating Income/ Debt Payments. Needs to be more than 1

b. WAC (Weighted Average Coupon): Weighted coupon rate of the MBS pool

c. WAM (Weighted Average Maturity): Term to maturity of the underlying pool of MBS in months

d. WAL (Weighted Average Life): s = ∑ t. PF(s) where PF(s) = Pool factor and t = actual/365

e. CPR (Constant Payment Rate): CPR = 1 − (1 − SMM)12 where SMM is Single Monthly Mortality

f. Public Securities Association (PSA): Standard value of CPR of 0.2% per month up to 30 months i.e. 6%.
This is called 100% PSA. It assumes mortgages prepay slower during the first 30 months

g. Default Ratio: Total credit card receivables written-off/ total credit card receivables
h. Delinquency Ratio: Credit card receivables for more than 90 days/ total credit card receivables.

i. MPR (Monthly Payment Rate): Reflects proportion of principal and interest that is repaid in a period
Reading: Adam Ashcraft and Til Schuermann, “Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit,” Federal
Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, No. 318 (March 2008)

1. Friction in Subprime Mortgage Securitization:

a. Mortgagor vs. originator: Typical mortgagor is not financially sophisticated
b. Originator vs. Arranger: The arranger(Issuer) is at an information disadvantage compared to the
c. Arranger vs. Third Parties: Arranger has more information than third parties
d. Servicer vs. Mortgagor: Conflict arises for delinquent loans
e. Servicer vs. Third Parties: Moral hazard as servicer has incentive to show higher recovery rates
f. Asset Manager vs. Investor: Investors rely on asset managers
g. Investor vs. Credit rating Agencies: rating agencies are compensated by arranger and not the end user.
Reading: The Evolution of Stress Testing Counterparty Exposures (Chapter 4, Stress Testing: Approaches, Methods, and
Applications, Edited by Akhtar Siddique and Iftekhar Hasan (London: Risk Books, 2013))

1. Definitions:
a. Counterparty Credit Risk
i. Current Exposure or replacement cost: Greater of zero or market value upon default
ii. Peak exposure: Measures distribution of exposures at high percentile at a future date
iii. Expected exposure: Measures mean distribution of exposures at a future date
iv. Expected positive exposure: Weighted average of expected exposures over time
b. Credit Value Adjustment (CVA): represents market value of CCR (Counterpart credit risk)
2. CCR:
a. CCR as credit risk: Exposes an institution to CVA
b. CCR as market risk: Leaves institution exposed to decline in counterparty creditworthiness
3. Shortcoming of stress testing:
a. CCR is not aggregated with loan portfolio or trading position stress
b. Stress testing current exposure is not optimal. Need to stress expected exposure
c. Using current exposures can lead to significant errors, especially for at-the-money exposures
d. Linearization of delta sensitivities in models can lead to significant errors