How It's Made - The Ultimate Guide To Weather Forecasting

HOW
IT’S
MADE
The Ultimate Guide to
Weather Forecasting
CONTENTS
Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 5
The Five Categories to Create a Highly Accurate Weather Forecast.................................................. 8
Weather Observation Networks.............................................................................................................. 12
Where are the main types of weather observation networks?................................................................ 13
The four main weather observation sources used by weather experts................................................... 13
Creating forecasts from observation data.............................................................................................. 15
Weather Stations............................................................................................................................... 16
What type of data available from weather stations................................................................................ 17
How weather experts improve the data: The six-step process to improve observational data.............. 18
How to identify accurate weather stations sources................................................................................ 19
How is this improved data used to create a forecast?............................................................................ 19
Weather Radar................................................................................................................................... 20
What data is available from radar?........................................................................................................ 21
How do weather experts improve the data to create a forecast?............................................................ 22
The five methods to improve radar data................................................................................................ 22
Weather radar helps minimize the impact of precipitation on business................................................ 23
Weather Satellites.............................................................................................................................. 24
What data is available from satellite?.................................................................................................... 25
How do weather experts improve the data to create a forecast? ........................................................... 26
Weather satellite helps minimize weather-related risk for businesses.................................................. 27
Lightning Detection........................................................................................................................... 28
What data is available from lightning detection?.................................................................................. 30
How do weather experts improve the data to create a forecast?............................................................ 30
Detection helps minimize the impact on businesses............................................................................. 31
Meteorological and Oceanographic (Metocean) Models........................................................................ 32
What information do metocean models provide?.................................................................................. 33
What information do metocean models provide?.................................................................................. 34
How do the metocean experts use metocean models?........................................................................... 34
What are the limits of metocean models?.............................................................................................. 34
External versus in-house metocean modeling....................................................................................... 35

External Metocean Models: What’s Available in the Market............................................................ 36
What are the main external datasets available in the market................................................................ 37
How a multi-model approach increases forecast accuracy.................................................................... 39
How metocean experts add value to the model data.............................................................................. 40
In-house Metocean Modeling: What You Need to Know.................................................................. 41
What is the difference between external and in-house metocean models? .......................................... 42
How do the experts create a numerical metocean model?..................................................................... 43
What is the added value of in-house metocean models?....................................................................... 43
Accessing just the insight you need....................................................................................................... 44
Statistical Post Processing...................................................................................................................... 45
The four main flavors of statistical post processing.............................................................................. 46
Model Output Statistics (MOS): What is it & How it Contributes to Your Forecast......................... 50
The six-step process to create the MOS................................................................................................. 51
How the MOS adds value to weather data to create a more accurate forecast....................................... 53
How do the weather experts keep the MOS accurate?........................................................................... 54
How is the MOS used?............................................................................................................................ 54
How the Experts Use Nautical MeteoBase for Marine Applications................................................. 55
How is NMB used?................................................................................................................................. 56
How the experts combine models for the best forecasts........................................................................ 56
What is a Kalman filter?......................................................................................................................... 57
How Scalable Downscaling Contributes to Your Weather Forecast.................................................. 60
Where is scalable downscaling used?..................................................................................................... 61
How does ScaDo work?.......................................................................................................................... 61
Choosing between numerical modeling and statistical processing........................................................ 62
Using the cloud to scale with ease......................................................................................................... 63
The Straightforward Guide to Road & Route Models....................................................................... 64
What are the Road & Routes Models?.................................................................................................... 65
How the experts add value to Road & Route Models?........................................................................... 65
How the Road & Route Models are used today?.................................................................................... 66
Using Road & Route Models to power autonomous driving.................................................................. 66
Three Ingredients to Help Put Strategic Weather Data Into Practice..................................................... 68
#1 Hyper local information through an IoE strategy.............................................................................. 68
#2 Accurate hindcasting, forecasting and calculation models............................................................... 69
#3 Weather experts that understand weather and your business challenges......................................... 70

Quality Control & Data Provisioning..................................................................................................... 71
So many reasons to be accurate............................................................................................................. 72
Supporting quality checks with data provisioning................................................................................. 74
Obsession or passion? It doesn’t matter................................................................................................ 74
How Data Provisioning Adds Value to Weather Data........................................................................ 75
How the experts manage weather data effectively................................................................................. 76
How data provisioning adds value to weather data................................................................................ 77
Ensuring modern data provisioning....................................................................................................... 77
The Non-Meteorologist’s Guide to Weather Data Quality Control................................................... 79
What is quality control?......................................................................................................................... 80
How the experts apply quality controls to observations........................................................................ 80
How the experts apply quality controls to weather models................................................................... 81
Why the experts are essential for quality controls................................................................................. 82
Meteorology and Forecasting Expertise................................................................................................. 83
The Ultimate Weather Forecasting Squad - 5 Teams You Need........................................................ 85
Team 1. Data provisioning..................................................................................................................... 86
Team 2. Weather forecasters.................................................................................................................. 86
Team 3. Meteorological services............................................................................................................ 86
Team 4. Professional services................................................................................................................. 87
Team 5. Weather systems ...................................................................................................................... 87
“I don’t have room for so many people!”............................................................................................... 87
Improving Weather Data One Industry at a Time............................................................................. 88
Keep calm and enrich your weather data............................................................................................... 89
8 industries = 8 approaches.................................................................................................................... 90
The 16 Weather Observation and Forecasting Value Parameters, Explained........................................ 93
What are the weather observations and forecasting value parameters?................................................ 94
Generic meteorological value parameters.............................................................................................. 95
Forecast-specific value parameters........................................................................................................ 96
Meteorological quality value parameter................................................................................................ 98
Technology quality value parameters ............................................................................................... 98
Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................. 100
About MeteoGroup............................................................................................................................... 101
38 Weather Forecasting Terms You Need to Know................................................................................ 102
Contributions......................................................................................................................................... 108
INTRODUCTION
When it comes to weather forecasting, many people rely on freely
available sources. But predicting the weather is serious business.
Everyone from shipping companies, oil rigs, energy distributors, air
transport, the automotive industry, and more: they all depend on
accurate and reliable weather forecasts to make informed business
decisions.
Instead of checking a free service, these companies turn to professional

meteorologists, trained in weather forecasting. But what is it that makes
the experts stand out from the crowd?
In this ultimate guide, we look under the hood of weather forecasting,

sharing the knowledge and experience of MeteoGroup specialists. We
asked the weather experts to share their experience and insights on
what makes a highly accurate weather forecast, to share with you. In
each section, we provide an overview of the category, before deep diving
into the detail. We cover everything that goes into making an accurate
forecast, to show exactly how your weather forecast is made and to create
How It’s Made: The Ultimate Guide to Weather Forecasting.
6
The Weather Forecasting
Methodology
7
Introduction
The Five
Categories to
Create a Highly
Accurate Weather
Forecast
The weather experts agree, there are Five Categories that are essential to
a high-quality, professional forecasting service. To start, we’ll outline the
Five Categories, before diving into more detail in the upcoming chapters.
#1. Observations
You can tell a lot about the weather outside by looking out your window.
It’s kind of what meteorologists do. They employ thousands of weather
stations and other sensors all around the world to find out what’s going
on. There are two main types of observation networks:
Physical locations: For example, weather stations (on land) and buoys
(on water) but also modern IoT techniques to capture data e.g. from car
sensors
Remote observations: Radars detecting precipitation, lightning sensors

triangulating thunderstorms and satellites to observe clouds (and much
more)
Physical locations measure conditions at their exact location, whereas

remote observations measure conditions in a radius around a certain
point. Weather experts draw on a mix of both to gather high-quality data.
#2. Meteorological and oceanographic (Metocean)

models
Experts use meteorological and oceanographic models to forecast

weather conditions, waves, and currents in the coming hours, days, and
weeks. These models are often complex, as they’re built on the laws of
physics, chemistry and fluid motion, and a coordinate system that divides
the Earth into a 3D grid.
Atmospheric motion, pressure, temperature, and humidity are calculated

per grid cell, and the interactions with neighboring cells are used to
predict future atmospheric properties. To make it even more complicated,
each weather model comes with its own characteristics performing better
in certain weather conditions and worse in others, meaning there’s no
such thing as the ultimate weather model providing always the best
predictions. This is why weather experts use a combination of models to
optimize accuracy.
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#3. Statistical post processing
By combining several weather models and conducting statistical

analyses on them, meteorologists can create an optimized forecasting
system. Such a forecasting system is the foundation for predicting future
weather conditions and can be adapted to specific requirements. Within
MeteoGroup, we work with four main flavors, which can be applied to
different use-cases:
Model Output Statistics (MOS)

The most generic and well-known forecasting system using actual
observations of the past to find the best combination of weather models
for a particular location
Scalable Downscaling (ScaDo)

A forecasting system to predict for locations away from weather stations,
which can also anticipate differences in altitude (think of mountain
ranges) and land-use (think of urban heat island)
Nautical MeteoBase (NMB)

A forecasting system to predict marine weather and the state of the sea
Road surface model

A combined physical/statistical model designed to calculate forecasts for
road surface temperatures and conditions at specific locations
Route based forecast model

A model designed to calculate forecasts for whole road networks (or
routes)
#4. Quality control & data management
Weather data comes in many different forms, such as observation, radar

and lightning data, satellite information and data derived from models.
All of these different data needs to be structured and organized, so they
can be analyzed and transformed into valuable information. Therefore,
weather experts work with high-available technology that provides them
and their customers with near real-time information. As data volumes
grow and technology gets better every day, there should always be data
specialists looking for new technological solutions to handle future data
volumes in a fast and reliable way.
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Securing quality over all elements of the forecasting process can be
a challenge when it comes to something as variable as the weather,
meaning there’s a strong need for quality control. For example, incoming
observation data has to be checked on accuracy, completeness, and
irregularities. Forecasts have to be checked in a continuous way so
that models can be further improved and the level of accuracy towards
customers can be increased secured and increased.
#5. Meteorology and forecasting expertise
To truly “know” the weather, you first need both weather forecasters
and data specialists. Second, you need a services team that deals with
customer feedback and draw up reports. Third, you need a research team
that innovates new scientific and technical methods, develops customer-
specific solutions, and defines algorithms to verify forecasting quality.
This research team is also responsible for knowledge management, for
example by monitoring weather model performance and keeping track of
new developments and improvements.
Forecast accuracy = high maintenance?
In terms of accuracy, there are clear differences between freely available

sources and high-quality weather forecasting. This improvement is due
to the combination of data sources, weather models, forecasting systems,
specialists and technologies, which weather experts rely on to improve
the accuracy of their forecasting.
You might say accuracy inevitably comes with high maintenance, which
is why companies choose to work with specialist weather experts. But
utilizing this accuracy is what sets apart the good from the great. Average
companies can make decisions using average data, but leading companies
use the highest accurate weather data in their decision making processes.
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Category One:
WEATHER
OBSERVATION
NETWORKS
Monitoring the weather is part of many people’s daily routine at work.
They do this to understand the safety risks for colleagues, how the
weather can impact operations, and understand the steps required to
keep the business running profitably.
Meteorologists are also observing the weather on a daily basis because

they need to know what is happening now to forecast what the weather
will do. But where weather experts differ from casual observers is the
scale of their observations. They rely on weather observation networks,
drawing on a broad range of high-quality data.
Where are the main types of weather

observation networks?
There are two main types of observation networks used to help create a
weather forecast:
1. Physical locations - e.g., weather stations (on land) and buoys (on
water), which measure conditions in their precise location
2. Remote observations - e.g., radars and lightning detectors

(horizontally on land) and satellites (from above), these measure
conditions in a radius around the location
MeteoGroup uses observations weather stations, radar, satellite and

lightning networks worldwide to analyze the actual weather conditions,
to adjust the forecast for the next hours and to validate and statistically
correct our forecasts using a quality checked archive of observations”
– Wim van den Berg, Senior meteorological consultant

Weather Tech Team
The four main weather observation

sources used by weather experts
Weather experts use observation data from weather stations, gathering it

from many sources. They then complete this data with observations from
radar, satellite and lightning.
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#1. Weather stations
Weather stations provide observation data readings of atmospheric
conditions at their physical location. The data provided will depend on
where the station is based. Marine buoys, for instance, will give nautical
weather information like wave height. Road sites provide accurate
measurements of road conditions.
Observation data is available from organizations operating networks

of weather stations. Some information is even accessible as open data;
however, the level of detail and accuracy of this observation data varies.
How do weather experts improve the data from weather stations?

Weather experts will only use reliable data sources, like from local Met
Offices. Where possible, they invest in multiple sources to correlate
results. This approach helps to improve the location coverage and quality
of data. They will also complete the observational data from weather
stations with other sources to create an accurate view.
#2. Weather radar

Weather radar uses radio waves to locate precipitation. It calculates the
distance, the direction the precipitation is traveling, and the type of
precipitation (e.g., rain, snow, or hail). Currently, radar data is primarily
available from national Met Offices, which operate radar networks.
How do weather experts improve the data from radar?

Weather experts use the movement of precipitation from radar to create
a movement field. This information is then applied to real-time data
to help map the possible rainfall in the next three hours. Additionally,
they’ll bring together data from multiple sources to provide insight over
a large area, such as a whole country or even the whole of Europe.
#3. Weather satellites

A weather satellite monitors the conditions of the atmosphere, clouds,
and the Earth’s surface. Images are taken either by the infrared spectrum,
which allows cloud coverage to be observed at all time; or by the
visible spectrum, which requires daylight but provides a more realistic
visualization.
How do weather experts improve the data from weather satellites?

Weather experts will process the satellite data, combining data from
multiple satellite sources to create a global view. They also integrate it
with data from other observation sources, to provide a complete picture
of what is happening.
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#4. Lightning detection
During a thunderstorm, every lightning strike creates electromagnetic
waves that travels through the atmosphere at the speed of light. Ground-
based (terrestrial) antenna networks can detect these waves. Regional
networks play a vital role in accurately identifying lightning with
terrestrial systems and satellites.
Lightning can also be detected by satellites – while terrestrial networks

have a higher level of accuracy, satellite data offers better coverage over
the ocean.
How do weather experts improve the data from lightning?

Weather experts improve the data by using their own end-to-end
lightning data-processing system; they can offer near real-time
visualization of the data, across different parameters. They also
combine the lightning data with weather radar to help identify active
thunderstorms.
Creating forecasts from observation

data
The knowledge and experience of weather experts enhance the data

gathered from weather observation networks. Their skill means they can
bring together multiple data sources, to improve the observation data
and use this to provide a complete picture of what the forecast for the
next hours will be. Where forecast accuracy is critical, these experts are
what differentiates between good enough to great.
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Category One:
Weather Observation Networks
Weather
Stations
Weather stations are physical locations equipped with standardized
instruments to measure the local weather conditions. Primarily, they
measure precipitation, wind speed, temperature, cloudiness, visibility
and other atmospheric conditions.
In isolation, a single weather station is useful; it tells us what the

weather is in a precise location. However, when observation data from
multiple weather stations are combined together as a network of data
points, they become a powerful mechanism to help weather experts to
forecast the weather.
What type of data available from weather

stations
“MeteoGroup uses only high-quality observations, wherever possible, and is

transparent about how that data is processed. We manage a weather station
network covering Germany, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Luxemburg and
provide global coverage with data from 20,000 stations worldwide.”
– Wim van den Berg, Senior Meteorological Consultant

Weather Tech Team
Two types of data are available from weather stations: observed data and
converted data. Observed data are collected from a range of different
weather stations, including:
• Weather stations that provide core meteorological and observation

data, e.g. air temperature, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure
• Road weather stations (RWIS) provide road-specific data, e.g. road-

surface temperature
• Marine buoys and platforms provide nautical weather data, e.g. wave
height
• Specific stations provide data as diverse as global radiation, soil

temperature, and snow depth
• Webcams that provide images from weather stations or third parties,

e.g. highway authorities
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Converted data are transformed from observation data and include:
• Aggregated data provide measures such as the sum, mean, maximum or

minimum
• Derived data are created using algorithms, e.g. humidity measures or

diffuse radiation
• Additional information layers, e.g. astronomical elements like sun/

moon rise and set times
Weather experts will only use reliable data sources, like local Met Offices.
Where possible, they invest in multiple sources to correlate results. This
approach helps to improve the location coverage and quality of data.
They will also complete the observational data from weather stations
with other sources to create an accurate view.
How weather experts improve the

data: The six-step process to improve
observational data
As well as investing in reliable data sources, weather experts also use

a robust six-step process to clean the data and optimize it for forecasting:
Step 1: Preparing the data for processing, where the data is decoded and
checked for quality
Step 2: Perform near real-time consistency check against the most

recent site-specific statistical forecast, then errors or inconsistencies are
removed.
Step 3: Unique derived elements are added, for example, cloud cover
Step 4: Apply daily and seasonal consistency check against historical

data sets, which go back to 1950s
Step 5: Computation of aggregated and climate elements, including 24-

hour precipitation amount
Step 6: Customer specific visualization elements added, translating

observational data into weather symbol sets used in media, TV, and
online.
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How to identify accurate weather
stations sources
Weather station data can be categorized into three quality bands: High,
moderate, and uncertain. These bands help identify which sources are
more likely to be accurate and reliable.
Type: High quality

Characteristics: Data is provided from reliable sources, with quality
assurance
Types of weather station: Includes primary networks, operated by
National Meteorological Services; weather station networks owned
and operated by private weather companies; and secondary networks,
operated by National Meteorological Institutes
Type: Moderate quality

Characteristics: Data comes from a secondary source, with no agreed
service level
Types of weather station: Reports provided by airports; reports
provided from wind farms, offshore platforms or ships; providers with
their own observation network
Type: Uncertain quality

Characteristics: Data comes from a source without any quality assurance
or service level
Types of weather station: Consumer weather stations participating in
open networks like Wunderground or Netatmo; Connected devices like
autonomous vehicles; road/rail condition sensors; or webcam data
How is this improved data used to create

a forecast?
Data from weather stations is used alongside data from other

observational networks, including satellite, radar and lightning, to help
weather experts determine the weather forecast for the next hours.
They’ll use this data to identify situations where the weather can pose a
risk to safety, impact on the day-to-day operations, and understand the
steps required to keep the business running profitably
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Category One:
Weather Radar
20
Weather radar uses radio waves to locate precipitation. It calculates
the distance, the direction, and elevation of precipitation. Additionally,
some radars provide the type of precipitation (e.g. rain, snow or hail).
Currently, radar data is primarily available from national met offices,
which operate radar networks.
During the Second World War, radar operators noticed a background echo
showing up on their displays. Further investigation showed it was the
weather causing this interference.
Since this discovery, meteorologists use weather radar predict oncoming

precipitation and weather patterns more accurately than previously
possible.
What data is available from radar?
“Good radar data is an essential source for real time and short term weather
forecast”
- Floris Bijlsma, Senior Meteorological Researcher
Radar data is primarily available from national met offices, which operate
radar networks. Some companies offer to install local radars, but these
have limited coverage. The main types of data available are:
• Basic radar: This is a precipitation image at a semi-constant height

of 1km above ground level, often created using data from multiple radar
sites.
• Volume data: This is 3D data showing radar reflectivity. In other words,

it’s the items the radio waves have encountered.
• Precipitation type: This is a precipitation image, showing the type

and intensity of the precipitation.
• Derived products: These include hail indicators, cloud top height, or

cumulative radar.
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How do weather experts improve the data
to create a forecast?
Weather experts will typically take basic radar data, such as location and
intensity, and enhance it, using their expertise and insights to create a
unique value set of data points. For example, they use the movement of
precipitation from radar to create a movement field. This information
is then applied to real-time data to help map the possible rainfall in the
next three hours. Additionally, they’ll bring together data from multiple
sources to provide insight over a large area, such as a whole country or
even the whole of Europe.
The five methods to improve radar data
#1 Merged radar data

This improvement combines radar reflectivity images from multiple radar
sources to provide insights into a broad geographical area, for example,
a country or even the whole of Europe. This improvement is beneficial
for media companies, which use radar images to visualize the weather
forecast in their broadcasts.
#2 Decluttered radar data

Weather radar can pick up false signals caused, for example, by wind
turbines. This improvement corrects the data to reduce the number of
false precipitation signals caused by turbines and other signal or echo
anomalies.
#3 Expected radar
This improvement uses the data to create a movement field of the
precipitation, which is applied to real-time data to extrapolate the
expected precipitation for the next three hours. This type of insight
forecasting is essential for any business operations affected by
precipitation.
#4 Precipitation type radar data

This combines conventional radar data with probability forecasts of
snow/hail/rain, taken from MOS (Model Output Statistics) forecast,
to provide a precipitation type forecast. This type of weather data is
particularly important for managing winter road conditions, as well as
rail and aircraft operations.
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#5 Cumulative radar:
This combines multiple radar images to calculate the estimated
precipitation amount over 1-, 3-, 6-, and 24-hour periods. In some
locations, this can also be calibrated with ground observations.
Weather radar helps minimize the impact

of precipitation on business
Weather radar data is particularly important for monitoring the weather

and identifying situations where the weather can be a risk, including
severe weather warnings and dangerous road conditions.
Knowing when precipitation is going to fall, the type of precipitation

and how likely it is to last can help businesses to manage their
operations more effectively and minimize the impact the weather has on
profitability.
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Category One:
Weather
Satellites
24
Weather satellites monitor the conditions of the atmosphere, clouds, and
the Earth’s surface. Images are taken either by the infrared spectrum,
which allows cloud coverage to be observed at all time; or by the
visible spectrum, which requires daylight but provides a more realistic
visualization.
There are two types of satellites: Geostationary satellites and polar

orbiting satellites. The difference comes down to the way they orbit the
Earth. Geostationary satellites follow the direction of the Earth’s orbit,
which means that they’re always located above the same point on Earth.
Polar orbiting satellites circle around the two poles.
The majority of satellites are geostationary. They’re located 35,786km

above the equator and deliver images every 5-15 minutes, with a spatial
resolution of 1- 6km. The polar orbiting satellites have a lower earth
orbit and can provide images with a higher spatial resolution (under
1km) than geostationary satellites. However, they can only deliver 1 or
2 images each day, which means they’re typically for specific use cases
only.
“With satellite data, we get a complete overview of the current weather

pattern on a global scale. This helps us to provide an excellent forecast for
remote places on land and over the ocean.”
– Marco Radke-Fretz, Data Manager (Data Provisioning)
What data is available from satellite?
Weather experts purchase and process satellite data. As the majority of

satellites are geostationary, data is required from multiple sources to
create a global view including:
For Europe, Africa, and the Indian Ocean: Images in both spectral
wavelengths from Eumetsat’s Meteosat satellites.
For Asia: Images from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s

Himawari satellite.
For North and South America and the Pacific Ocean: Images from
NOAA’s two satellites – GOES-East and GOES-West.
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Data is enhanced with Images from the polar orbiting satellites
(including Metop-A, Metop-B (from Eumetsat), NOAA-19, Aqua and Terra
(from NOAA and NASA).) and also derived satellite data. This including
cloud analysis images, global rainfall estimates and precipitation rate
at ground level (for Europe) and sea ice edge data (for the northern
hemisphere).
When required, this data can be further enhanced with additional data
sources, such as:
• Open data, for example, the data gathered by the polar orbiting
satellites of EU’s Copernicus project (Sentinel-1, -2 and -3)
• Geostationary satellite data from China and Russia (this is especially

relevant for coverage in Asia)
• Derived data from satellites; for example, solar radiation and

precipitation data

Weather experts will process the satellite data, using their own satellite
data-processing system, and combine data from multiple satellite sources
to create a global view on an hourly basis.
They also integrate it with data from other observation sources, to

provide a complete picture of what is happening, and enhance the
satellite data through temporal interpolation to improve the temporal
resolution.
Alongside this, they can provide satellite data for any customer-specific,
weather satellite-related needs and offer a range of visualization
capabilities, for example:
• Customized combinations of images from the two spectrums to

visualize special atmospheric or weather features (like fog at night or
dust)
• A combination of precipitation and model data to create precipitation

type images
• Visualizing clouds on the whole globe using the global composite
26
• Creating smooth, custom, cloud animations with interpolated satellite
images
• Visualizing cloud images together with other data in layer-based

visualization tools
• Visualizing satellite-derived precipitation images with information

about precipitation type
Weather satellite helps minimize

weather-related risk for businesses
Satellite data can help forecasters support businesses and industries

in many ways. In particular, it’s beneficial for predicting squalls: short,
heavy bursts of weather that result in the rapid onset of near to zero
visibility and strong gusty winds. Knowing when squalls will occur is
critical for offshore companies, energy production, and shipping because
they have a significant impact on operations.
27
Category One:
Lightning
Detection
28
During a thunderstorm, every lightning strike creates electromagnetic
waves that travel through the atmosphere at the speed of light. Ground-
based (terrestrial) antenna networks can detect these waves. Regional
networks play a vital role in accurately identifying lightning with
terrestrial systems.
Lightning can also be detected by satellites. The terrestrial networks have

a higher level of accuracy; however, satellite data offers better coverage
over the ocean.
By using terrestrial lightning detection, specific information can be

discerned about each strike, including timestamp, location, and strength
of the lightning. Although not all detection network parameters are the
same, they typically allow us to discover:
• The exact timestamp - some networks can pinpoint it within

milliseconds
• The exact geographical location - based on latitude and longitude
• The type of lightning - whether it is cloud-to-cloud or cloud-to-ground
• The strength or amplitude of the lightning - this is expressed as the

electric current in Ampere
• The polarity of the lightning - whether it has a negative or positive

charge
• The height of the lightning above ground in the case of cloud-to-cloud

strikes
• The accuracy of the localization
By combining this insight, with expert analysis from meteorologists, it is

possible to understand the exact nature of each lightning strike.
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What data is available from lightning
detection?
“High accuracy lightning data together with weather radar images allow us
to track thunderstorms and issue timely warnings for our customers.”
- Dr Marco Radke-Fretz, Data Manager (Data Provisioning)
Weather experts will purchase and process data from a range of sources,
depending on location and need:
For Europe: The Nowcast (Ubimet) operated Linet system has the
highest detection efficiency available at up to 99% and boasts location
accuracy of up to 100m. Siemens operates BLIDS. UK Met Office operates
SFUK.
For Canada: MeteoGroup-owned and operated network.
Global Coverage: Earth Networks provide TLN data (this offers high
accuracy for both types of lightning strike, focusing on North America,
Brazil, Australia, Southeast Asia, and Europe) and GLN data (delivers
cloud-to-ground detection only, with a detection efficiency between 60
and 95% and a location accuracy between 300 and 2,000m).
Other detection networks include the World Wide Lightning Location

Network (WWLN) at the University of Washington and also Blitzortung.
org, which offers non-commercial global detection data in real-time.
Additionally, this information is supplemented by some satellites, for
example, GOES-16 and -17, provide data for the western Atlantic and the
Pacific Ocean. This is primarily where terrestrial network coverage is not
sufficient.

Weather experts improve the data by using their own end-to-end

lightning data-processing system; they can offer near real-time
visualization of the data, aggregating the data for different grids and
timestamps. They also combine the lightning data with radar to help
identify active thunderstorms.
30
As well as using the data to identify current and forecasted weather
events, they also use it to measure and record annual lightning density
(the number of strikes per area) and to analyze historical lightning data
to consult and support their customers.
Detection helps minimize the impact on

businesses
As lightning impacts operations and projects in a wide range of weather-

critical businesses from the construction industry to energy generators,
access to accurate and complete data, with customizable coverage is
essential to mitigate risk.
By using an end-to-end lightning data-processing system, weather

experts support their customers to get more value from the data. A high-
density network ensures the data is accurate and reliable, minimizing
the risk of false alarms for businesses while ensuring that safety is
maintained.
31
Category Two:
METEOROLOGICAL
AND
OCEANOGRAPHIC
(METOCEAN)
MODELS
32
Meteorological and oceanographic models (also known as metocean
models) help metocean experts to forecast the conditions in the
atmosphere and ocean over the coming hours, days, and weeks.
Models are computer programs in which the laws of physics, chemistry

and fluid motion, and a coordinate system are considered. A modeler
maps relevant properties of the earth onto a 2D/3D grid on which the
model is then run.
Winds, heat transfer, solar radiation, relative humidity, and surface

hydrology are calculated per grid cell, and the interactions with
neighboring cells are used to predict future metocean properties. To
make it even more complicated, each metocean model comes with its
own characteristics, meaning there’s no such thing as the ultimate model.
Therefore, metocean experts use a combination of models to optimize
accuracy.
“MeteoGroup provides tailored metocean forecast and historical datasets

at any desired resolution and area on the globe. For that purpose, we make
use of a novel cloud infrastructure that enables us to quickly respond to
customer requests. We owe ourselves to provide the best quality datasets,
assessed against both our own station observation network (including public
observations) and customer observation data.”
- Dr Hugo Hartman, Senior Meteo Scientist
What information do metocean models

provide?
Metocean models use a coordinate system to map the earth onto a

geospatial grid of latitude and longitude coordinates. This mapping
includes properties like elevation, land-use, and the depth of water in
oceans, seas, or lakes. Different models have different use-cases, typically
they work as follows:
• Atmospheric models calculate temperature, relative humidity, wind,

precipitation, heat transfer, solar radiation, and surface hydrology in each
cell, with neighboring cells used to calculate future properties.
• Oceanographic models, for example, the spectral wave model, use wind,
ice and current, and bathymetric data to predict waves on each cell of the
grid.
33
What information do metocean models
provide?
Metocean models use a coordinate system to map the earth onto a

geospatial grid of latitude and longitude coordinates. This mapping
includes properties like elevation, land-use, and the depth of water in
oceans, seas, or lakes. Different models have different use-cases, typically
they work as follows:
• Atmospheric models calculate temperature, relative humidity, wind,

precipitation, heat transfer, solar radiation, and surface hydrology in each
cell, with neighboring cells used to calculate future properties
• Oceanographic models, for example, the spectral wave model, use wind,
ice and current, and bathymetric data to predict waves on each cell of the
grid
How do the metocean experts use

metocean models?
By using the coordinate system to map the earth onto a grid, metocean
models can be used by the experts to provide:
• Analyzed metocean conditions: these are the actual environmental

state and latest observations for a specific point in time.
• Forecasted metocean conditions: these follow the analyzed conditions

and are usually provided in the coming hours or days (though, in special
cases, it can be weeks or months ahead).
What are the limits of metocean models?
Arguably, the resolution for metocean models can be infinite, by taking

into account all possible variables. But the computing power and
investment required to support such a resolution would also need to be
infinite. This is why numerical modeling is divided into:
• Mesoscale modeling: uses either a global grid of the entire earth at a

relatively low resolution (with data retrieved from external centers such
as the UK Met Office) or a regional grid which has a higher resolution and
covers broader areas including mountain ranges.
34
• Microscale modeling: uses a feature resolving grid that models specific
environmental properties that strongly affect forecasted parameters
which aren’t in regional grids such as islands, sandbanks, and valleys.
Resolution and physics are always limiting factors with the above, but
reliable forecast results can be achieved by assimilating observations via
the global grid.
External versus in-house metocean

modeling
Businesses that outsource their forecasting via metocean models will

usually benefit from global atmospheric operational datasets such as
ECMWF (proprietary), UKMO (proprietary), and the NCEP GFS (open). A
license fee is sometimes required to access those datasets, while others
offer free data.
An external metocean modeling company will offer several benefits,

including:
• (statistical) Multi-model approaches that include aggregated values for

24-hours of precipitation and temperature.
• Ensemble forecasts that aggregate 50 scenarios for lowest wind speed,

temperature and precipitation amount (and more).
• Two- or three-year archives of model forecasts.
When undertaking in-house metocean modeling, most commercial

and government weather forecasting companies integrate one or more
mesoscale and microscale modeling services into their end products. Raw
data can also be obtained from other companies, but the quality of that
data and service level agreements often vary wildly.
Despite this, and with the right assistance, that data can be made to work
very well. For instance, wave spectra from the ECWMF are only available
on a three- or six-hour basis, while an experienced company can take the
raw data and use it to produce data that is available for every hour (or
more frequently).
Metocean models are reliable, affordable and with the right dataset
they can provide businesses with unique selling points regarding their
forecasting abilities.
35
Category Two:
Meteorological and Oceanographic (Metocean) Models
External Metocean
Models: What’s
Available in the
Market
36
The weather today tells you a lot about the weather tomorrow. Using
meteorological and oceanographic (metocean) models, experts can
analyze current weather conditions and historical data to predict future
conditions.
These numerical models are sophisticated computer programs, in which

the laws of physics, chemistry, fluid motion, and a coordinate system are
all considered. A modeler maps the relevant properties of the earth onto
a 2D or 3D grid, on which the model is then run. Winds, heat transfer,
solar radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology are all calculated
per grid cell, and the interactions with neighboring cells are used to
predict future metocean properties.
Metocean models are also an input for the statistical methodologies

used for statistical on-top processing: Category Three in the weather
forecasting methodology. Experts use models from both external data
sources and also develop their own in-house models.
“The data we receive from our global and regional weather suppliers is
included in all of the work we do and embedded in all of the in-house
models we run. The data is key to our business and we are thankful all of the
innovation in the market. Different external models have different strengths
depending on region, forecast time-step and type of weather. Our experts and
modelers use these insights to get the most value out of the data and input we
collect.”
- Valentijn van Gastel – Product Manager Offshore & Nautical Data
What are the main external datasets

available in the market
External metocean models offer a range of different datasets. Weather

Companies will buy specific datasets, depending on their requirements.
The most commonly used global atmospheric operational datasets are as
follows:
#1 ECMWF
ECMWF is both a research institute and also a 24/7 service that produces
numerical weather models. The most important ECMWF models for
weather experts are:
37
• Atmospheric Model high resolution 10-day forecast (HRES)
• Ocean Wave Model high resolution 10-day Forecast (HRES-WAM &

HRES-SAW)
• Atmospheric model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS)
• Ocean Wave Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS-WAM)
What is the coverage?

For all datasets the coverage is global.
How does it work?

The temporal resolution of the models ranges from 3 to 6 hours,
depending on the specific dataset. For high res models, the output covers
up to 10 days, while the output from other datasets can cover up to 32
days for the extended long-term forecast. The spatial resolution ranges
from 0.125° to 0.5°, depending on the dataset. There are four issues from
the models each day, using 0, 06, 12 and 18 UTC data.
Who runs the model?

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
#2 UKMO
The UK Met Office supplies historical data, forecast data, and specialist
datasets, providing both atmospheric and oceanographic datasets.

Coverage of the models range from global through to European or UK
specific.
How does it work?

The temporal resolution ranges 1 to 6 hours. The maximum lead time
for the models vary, with the UKV and Wave UK and North Sea models
covering 36 hours, and the Global model covering 144 hours. The number
of issues from the models ranges between 2 and 8 per day.
Who runs the model?

UK Met Office
38
#3 NCEP
NCEP delivers US and global weather guidance, forecasts, and analysis

to its partners and external users. The most important NCEP models for
weather experts are:
• NCEP GFS
• NCEP Ensemble
• NOAA WW3

Coverage of the models is global.
How does it work?

The temporal resolution of the models ranges from 1 to 12 hours,
depending on the specific dataset. The spatial resolution ranges from 0.1°
to 1.0°, depending on the dataset. Output for the models ranges from 48
hours to 385 hours. There are four issues from the models each day, apart
from the Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) which has one issue.
Who runs the model?

National Centers for Environmental Prediction
In addition to using models from ECMWF, UKMO, and NCEP, Weather

Companies can decide to purchase datasets from national meteorological
offices, such as KNMI and DWD (Deutsche Wetterdienst). And to
complement external datasets, the most sophisticated Weather
Companies also create metocean models that are developed by their in-
house scientists.
How a multi-model approach increases

forecast accuracy
There’s no such thing as an ultimate weather model, which always
provides the best weather predictions. Each model has its own
characteristics, and will perform better in some certain weather
conditions or regions but worse in others. Therefore, metocean experts
use a combination of models to optimize for accuracy.
39
How metocean experts add value to the
model data
External metocean models data is a key component of your weather

forecast. For example, in agriculture, data from the models contributes
to long-term forecasts for trading and helps provide early warnings for
weather conditions that could affect crop growth.
Likewise, for companies working in shipping, offshore, energy, and

transport, external metocean models support near real-time monitoring
of the weather. This insight is essential for companies to make confident
weather-based decisions, keep projects on schedule, and ensure the
safety of personnel and equipment is maintained.
But the data from the models alone is not enough. Working with a
specialist Weather Company, means you can get advice on how the model
data should be used and, importantly, how it can help you avoid bad
decisions made using misinterpreted model output data. A metocean
modeling company will offer several key benefits, including:
• (statistical) Multi-models approaches, enhancing data from external

providers.
• Ensemble forecasts that aggregate 50 scenarios for probabilistic

forecasting and to estimate risk and confidence to the forecasts.
• Two- or three-year archives of model forecasts.
But the real value comes in helping companies understand the likely
future weather conditions and how these conditions will impact on
operations and projects. Access to accurate and complete data, with
customizable coverage, is essential to mitigate risk. By providing the
best quality datasets, assessed against both station observation networks
and end-customer observation data, metocean experts support their
customers to get more value from the data.
40
Category Two:
Meteorological and Oceanographic (Metocean) Models
In-house Metocean
Modeling: What You
Need to Know
41
External datasets, which are readily available in the market, are a
valuable part of the forecaster’s toolkit. However, they are just part of
the puzzle. For example, wave spectra from ECWMF are available every
3 to 6 hours, which might not be the required temporal resolution for
the specific use case. In-house models can provide this higher resolution
with insights for every hour - or even intra-hourly. The in-house models
can also provide spatial resolution down to hundreds of meters.
“Modelling is both an art and a science. Where science delivers the empirical
formula that form the basis of the models themselves, it is up to the metocean
modeler to simplify the complex world into an optimal configuration that
ensures maximum quality while using as little resources as possible”
Sander Hulst - Senior Oceanographic Researcher
What is the difference between external

and in-house metocean models?
It is clear that for some use-cases, external datasets alone are not
enough. They need additional inputs to solve the challenge that the
customer is facing. Custom model configurations allow experts to select
source terms (physical equations) and grid resolutions for that particular
use case. To translate global data to your specific area of interest, the
experts nest one or more feature-resolving grids in regional grids
and then the regional grids in the global grids. We call this physical
downscaling, an alternative to statistical downscaling.
In-house models provide end users with direct access to new and
improved methodologies and give them the chance to participate in
the research and implementation of future models in ways that can
specifically benefit their business.
Working with the experts, who know the models and your business,
ensures that the guidance and advice you receive are tailored to your
situation and requirements. You can focus on your priorities, confident
that you have access to near real-time insight into how the weather
conditions are developing and experts that understand what this data
means for you.
42
How do the experts create a numerical
metocean model?
Reliable forecasts are essential but complicated to produce. Taking the

example of a specific oceanographic / wave model, we can see how the
experts both produce the model and apply it to real life situations. (This
approach applies to meteorological models as well).
At an offshore wind farm location off the Belgian coast, sandbanks can
cause high or long waves to break early, or induce waves to bend.
These conditions make it harder to predict wave height, which is a real

challenge for offshore projects in the area. In the past, forecasts have at
times been half a meter off because sandbanks are not accounted for in
the global wave models. This has obvious, huge implications for vessels
working close to their safety threshold.
To provide accurate forecast for the offshore windfarm in such a

challenging location, it required the development of an in-house model
using an innovative approach. By coupling atmospheric forcing with
in-house wave models, it not only looks at the conditions at sea but also
incorporates the atmospheric winds that drive the waves. Furthermore
it includes detailed tidal information, a prerequisite when working in
shallow water. The model was calibrated both with local observations (in-
situ) and remote sensing data. The model is run on a cloud based High
Performance Cluster which ensures there’s always enough computing
power for it to run and new models can be set up for any desired location
around the world.
What is the added value of in-house

metocean models?
Different models have different strengths. Where a coarse model is set

up to perform well in the deep ocean, a more detailed model is required
closer to shore.
The advantage of in-house modeling experts means that different models

can be coupled: the output from one becoming the input for another. For
instance, a regional WAVEWATCHIII model can be fed surface wind data
computed by a regional WRF domain, of which both receive boundary
conditions from a global grid.
43
Think about offshore companies that need to plan operations in marginal
weather conditions. They benefit from specific inhouse models and
combinations. In this case, a SWAN model run on a high-resolution
grid can take spectral wave data from the regional WAVEWATCHIII,
surface winds from WRF, tidal data from harmonic components, and
ocean circulation data from Mercator, in order to properly capture, for
instance, the wave-current interactions over complex seafloor features.
The resulting dataset can provide unique insights in reigning and future
conditions. These types of modeling is also crucial for innovative blue
energy developments that depend on accurate tide and wave power data.
Accessing just the insight you need
In-house models are built for specific use cases or for specific locations.
They aim to increase the forecast value parameters of specific data
points, for example data points relating to waves for near shore work or
specific offshore activities like cable laying.
It’s about supporting the end client at all stages of their work, with the
data that they need. For offshore projects, for example, this typically
means using coarse data for the tender phase, with detailed studies used
for design phase and then using the same model grids for the operation
and decommissioning phases.
In-house models provide end users with direct access to new and
improved methodologies, and may even give them the chance to
participate in the research and implementation of future models in ways
that can specifically benefit their business.
Working with the experts, who know the models and your business,
ensures that the guidance and advice you receive are tailored to your
situation and requirements. You can focus on your priorities, confident
that you have access to near real-time insight into how the weather
conditions are developing and experts that understand what this data
means for you.
44
Category Three:
STATISTICAL POST
PROCESSING
45
Statistical post processing is a technique used by weather experts to
enhance and improve their forecasts. It’s an umbrella term, describing
multiple statistical methodologies, which each have a unique purpose
and application.
It works by combining metocean model data and high-resolution

environmental data, exploiting the strengths of each. It also applies
locally-observed weather from observation networks. Post processing
is used to correct the quite coarse-scale nature of model output; these
corrections are necessary to ensure that local effects are taken into
consideration and the most accurate forecast is produced.
“For site-specific forecasts, raw model data is not accurate enough. By

applying smart statistical corrections, based on local observations and
terrain data, our forecasts gain about 20% in accuracy”
- Wim van den Berg , Senior Meteorological Consultant,

Weather Tech Team
The four main flavors of statistical post

processing
Weather experts produce their core forecasting systems by taking a mix

of data from relevant weather models and performing statistical post
processing. There are four main flavors used, all aimed at different use
cases.
#1 Model Output Statistics (MOS) & MeteoBase
MOS - also known as the MultiModel-MOS as the technique is applied

to several weather models - is the weather experts’ showpiece. It’s used
to correct for local influences and, as a result, get closer to the actual
situation. The MOS takes account of two years of historical data and
compares local observations with the model data issued. MOS techniques
add value to the raw model forecast, especially for “local” weather
parameters like temperature, wind speed, and amount of rain.
46
Each location has its own precise local characteristics which will not be
fully reflected in a coarse-scale model. The MOS realigns the deviation
and ensures that the appropriate weighting and characteristics are
applied from the three main models. As such, a specific individual MOS
forecast is generated for each MOS observation point.
How it is used
MOS provides data for data feeds and APIs, which are used for a wide
range of applications, including crop forecasting in the agriculture sector
and reporting on extreme weather for insurance companies. It provides
input for more specialist systems, like Road & Route models. It also
underpins specific weather products, such as Dynamic Line Rating.
How the experts add value

By using two years of training data, experts ensure forecasts are adjusted
to local observation sites. As well, by combining data from several models
improves skill. Experienced meteorologists put the finishing touch to the
MOS forecast, allowing for extreme weather conditions. This adjusted
version is called the MeteoBase.
#2 Nautical MeteoBase (NMB)
NMB is a forecast data engine that feeds all marine-related products

(both shipping and offshore). NMB draws on various sources of
atmospheric and oceanographic model forecast data.
For critical marine operations, the weather experts also provide derived
elements like risk wind speed and risk wave height. The output data is
refreshed 4 times each day.
How it is used
NMB is specifically for marine applications in shipping and offshore.
It feeds into specialist products like SPOS and NowcastingPro. It
also underpins custom route advice for master mariners and custom
Metocean reports.

Weather experts improve the forecast by combining data from different
weather models, including ECMWF, UKMO, KNMI, and NCEP/NOAA.
Each model is given its own weight, based on its relative performance.
The weights are variable depending on the forecast lead time.
Through model mixing, NMB enhances the strong points of the input
models and reduces the weak sides, which improves the accuracy and
reliability of the forecast.
47
#3 Scalable Downsizing (ScaDo)
The weather model data used for forecasting can cover large grid areas
of up to 50km. As a result, it doesn’t always consider the impact of
features that fall within those grid lines, such as changes in elevation
and land-use. Downscaling helps to overcome this problem. During the
process of downscaling, data from the large grid areas is enhanced with
geo-statistical methods to make predictions about weather and climate
‘on-the-spot’, particularly at the surface level.
The ScaDo forecasting system combines the quality of station-based

MOS with information about land topography and use, which makes
it particularly effective in locations without any observation stations
nearby.
How it is used
ScaDo is invaluable for locations that experience highly localized weather
effects, such as an Alpine valley. It provides detailed wind forecasts for
wind farms, feeds into the route based forecast model and can run along
a predefined list of points like a powerline.

ScaDo provides forecasts for locations with no observation and improves
forecasts in valleys and mountains. It offers customer more data points
and means that customers working in complex terrains can still access
accurate weather forecasts.
#4 Road & Route Models
The road surface model combines a physical and statistical model,

designed to calculate the forecast for road surface temperature and
conditions at specific locations, such as Road weather information
system (RWIS) locations and downscaled locations (i.e. ‘on-the-spot’
forecasts). The route based forecast model is a physical model, designed
to calculate forecasts for road surface temperatures and conditions for
predefined gritting networks (or routes).
Both models draw on data from MeteoBase, which contains manually

controlled output from the MOS forecast system.
48
How it is used
The Road & Route models are used to identify situations where the
weather poses a risk on the roads, supporting gritting decisions. The
automotive industry also uses them as inputs for autonomous driving
initiatives.

For the road surface model, the experts combine the physical model
data with 3 years of historical statistical data, which takes into account
the local environment of an RWIS station. This improves the model’s
accuracy. They also run a bias filter that looks at the past 21 days to
identify any inconsistencies.
For the route forecast model, they apply scaling to the physical model to
improve the spatial resolution; for example, by adding information about
the temperature and condition of road surfaces between the RWIS sites.
49
Category Three:
Statistical Post Processing
Model Output
Statistics (MOS):
What is it & How it
Contributes to Your
Forecast
50
Model Output Statistics (MOS) is a real showpiece at the heart of creating
your forecasts. The weather experts use it to add value to purchased raw
weather data, by correcting model data for local influences and get closer
to the actual situation.
The MOS takes account of two years of historical data and compares
local observations with the model data issued. Each location has its
own precise local characteristics which will not be fully reflected in a
coarse-scale model. The MOS realigns the deviation and ensures that
the appropriate weighting and characteristics are applied from the three
main models. As such, a specific individual MOS forecast is generated for
every weather parameter for every observation point.
“Our MOS system is the core of our worldwide forecasting system. Not only
because it adds a lot of quality to raw-model data, also MeteoGroup’s MOS
system provides the customer with specific derived weather parameters that
strongly increase the usage options”
- Floris Bijlsma,
Senior Meteorological Researcher
The six-step process to create the MOS
Post processing is done by the weather experts to correct the quite

coarse-scale nature of raw model output; these corrections are
necessary to ensure that local effects are taken into consideration. The
six-step process outlined below delivers the high-quality forecast of
MeteoGroup’s MOS.
Step 1: Annual MOS update using historical model and

observation data
There are separate MOS equations relating model output with observed
weather elements (temperature, wind etc.) for every observation station
and forecast step. These equations are updated every year using up to 2
years’ worth of historical (model and observation) data.
51
Step 2: The MOS prepares the ‘main’ and ‘derived’ MOS
elements
Using the historical data it has been trained with, as well as live model
data and live observations from weather stations, radars and satellites, it
runs the MOS equations, the results of which are referred to as the ‘main’
MOS elements. It also creates ‘derived’ MOS elements; for example,
where there are no observations available, it derives the forecast from
related data. Derived data also includes probability forecasts (risk
of extreme events) and a translation of the forecast into the most
significant weather type.
Step 3: The MOS main and derived elements are

combined to create the forecast
Every hour, the MOS forecast is updated for the coming 48 hours and 4
times per day the MG MOS updates the forecast for the coming 15 days.
In total, MOS does billions of calculations per hour.
Step 4: The MOS forecast undergoes a quality check
It’s important that a quality check is performed to ensure consistency

between elements. Example: when non-zero precipitation is forecasted,
there must also be some clouds.
Step 5: The MOS forecast is prepared for delivery
The combined output of the main and derived elements is “packaged” for
shipping to internal or customer systems.
Step 6: Forecasters make any necessary edits in

MeteoBase
Experienced meteorologists adjust the MOS forecast to allow for the

more extreme weather conditions. This adjusted version of the MOS
forecast is called the MeteoBase.
52
How the MOS adds value to weather data
to create a more accurate forecast
Besides being influenced by experienced meteorologists, the MOS is also

influenced by many different factors, including real-time observations,
radar, and satellite images. It is by combining all data sources together
that weather experts ensure the forecasts are in line with the current
situation. This approach has two key benefits, namely:
#1 Delivering one of the lowest mean absolute errors

in the market is achieved by:
• Using a unique approach, incorporating 4 weather models (for Europe,

ECMWF, GFS, EURO4, and ECMWF-EPS).
• Measuring the structural mistakes in the forecast and correcting the

MOS by incorporating a dynamic bias correction, using observations from
the previous 5-25 days.
• Input from meteorological experts with the option to edit forecasts in

MeteoBase.
#2 Enabling nowcasting and dynamic adaption to the

latest observations, which means:
• For weather stations, mistakes can be measured in the short-term

forecast (up to 6 hours) and corrected accordingly.
• Using precipitation radar data, it’s possible to include the movement of

precipitation over the coming 3 hours.
• Using satellites, the expected cloud pattern for the next 3 hours can be
corrected.
In addition, the MOS and MeteoBase also provide the probability of

weather events like precipitation, snow, and thunder. The MOS can also
estimate uncertainties in the MOS forecast itself, providing a forecast of
the average error in the predicted temperature and wind speed.
53
How do the weather experts keep the
MOS accurate?
The weather experts play a vital role in putting the finishing touch to
the ultimate weather forecasts to be issued. In addition to the technical
and physical setup, as highlighted in Step 6 in the process to create
MOS, experienced forecasters are essential to finessing the MOS via the
MeteoBase system.
Additionally, over time, the purchased weather model data gradually

get out of sync with the statistical calculations that are unleashed on
it. Formulas and algorithms designed two or three years ago and have
applied since might not be entirely sufficient today.
For example, when using a specific weather model mix, the MOS
may always add two degrees to a specific area to arrive at the correct
maximum temperature. However, if the purchased models are adapted
to more closely approximate the correct maximum value, adding those
two degrees as a correction factor will result in the temperature forecast
being too high.
These fluctuations mean experts regularly need to make adjustments

to ensure the MOS is still accurate. And, at times, can mean a complete
overhaul to ensure it remains accurate and reliable.
How is the MOS used?
At its core, the MOS and MeteoBase data are used to create your weather
forecast and help identify situations where the weather poses a risk.
Data from the MOS underpins other statistical methodologies like Road
& Route models, for road surface temperatures. Equally, the MOS can be
applied to create custom solutions for specific weather-related problems.
For example, de-icing operations and dynamic line rating.
54
Category Three:
How the Experts Use

Nautical MeteoBase
for Marine
Applications
55
Nautical MeteoBase (NMB) is a forecast data engine that feeds all
marine-related products (both shipping and offshore). NMB draws on
various sources of atmospheric and oceanographic model forecast data.
For critical marine operations, the weather experts also provide derived
elements like risk wind speed and risk wave height. The output data is
refreshed 4 times each day.
“Standard metocean models provide a great starting point. However, to

improve accuracy, it requires weather experts to combine different models,
apply corrections for near-shore locations, and make manual adjustments.
This is especially important in areas where there are limited or no
observations.”
Maurits Geuze, Application Domain Expert - Marine
How is NMB used?
NMB is specifically for marine applications in shipping and offshore. It

feeds into specialist products, and it also underpins custom route advice
for master mariners and custom Metocean reports.
For example, metocean conditions affect all areas of offshore operations,

so a reliable and accurate forecasting tool is essential. The unique
technology enables offshore companies to interact with the forecast
data in a way that easily integrates into their daily operations. They can
accurately plan for weather-related downtime, avoiding unnecessary or
last-minute scheduling changes, and reduce operational costs.
Users have visibility of changing conditions plus an inbuilt threshold

alarm, leading to improved safety at sea and reduced risk of damage to
equipment or environmental disaster. Data is delivered using standard
maritime communications systems, ensuring communications costs are
kept to a minimum.
How the experts combine models for the

best forecasts
Weather experts improve the forecast by combining data from different

weather models, including ECMWF, UKMO, KNMI, and NCEP/NOAA.
Each model is given its own weight, based on its relative performance.
56
The weights are variable depending on the forecast lead time.
Through model mixing, NMB enhances the strong points of the input
models and reduces the weak sides, which improves the accuracy and
reliability of the forecast.
The raw NMB data can be improved further through:
• A near-shore post-processing module called Rose, which can

incorporate meteorologist expert knowledge to reduce localized model
imperfections.
• Automated local calibration using observations with a Kalman filter –

an algorithm that reduces systematic errors.
• Manual adjustment by meteorologists interpreting and combining

multiple additional data sources e.g. observations, satellite, and radar.
The NMB output is available on a global 1.0x1.0-degree grid and, for

high-precision regional forecasts, on 0.1x0.1 fine-mesh grids. These fine
mesh grids are available as standard in highly-used areas but can also
be produced for any point in the sea globally on customer request. On
request, the weather experts can also run high-resolution SWAN wave
forecasts for specific locations.
What is a Kalman filter?
The Kalman filter is a post-processing technique that minimizes

systematic errors in model forecasts. The technique shows similarities
with the MOS. But while the MOS is a static correction, the Kalman filter
is self-learning, recursively combining new measurements with model
forecasts.
This allows the filter to learn and apply corrections on-the-fly, reducing
the mean error (bias). Because of the dynamic character of the filter, it
can adapt to changes in measurements (e.g. seasonal shifts) or changes/
upgrades in the model used.
The weather experts can apply a Kalman filter to the significant wave
height forecast produced by the Nautical MeteoBase for offshore clients.
This requires a live observation data stream between the client and the
experts. To use the filter’s full potential, the stream should deliver new
measurements (via FTP) at a high-frequency stream every 10-60 minutes.
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How is the Kalman filter applied to waves
Step 1: NMB forecast data
First, a check is done to establish whether NMB forecast data for the
client location is stored in the database.
Step 2: Measurement data
If a live data feed is not available, this needs to be set up by the client.
If it has already been up and running, the experts will work on the
automatic ingestion of this data into the database.
Step 3: Training
Before a Kalman filter can be deployed for a marine client, it needs

to be trained over a period of approximately three weeks. If historical
measurement and forecast data are both available, a hindcast study can
be done – this not only reduces the training period substantially, it also
indicates in advance how much the filter can improve the forecast. Any
forecasts the client receives during the training period won’t have the
Kalman filter calibration applied yet.
Step 4: Application of the Kalman filter
The training period ensures that the Kalman filter coefficients, which
calibrate the NMB forecast, are stabilized. Once that’s done, the filter can
become operational.
The Kalman filter uses up-to-date measurements, taken just before a new
NMB forecast is released. Because of this approach, the filter can further
improve the short-range wave height forecast.
Experience shows that coastal locations benefit most from the significant
reduction in the mean error of the model forecast. These locations are
sometimes not well represented within the NMB, due to factors such as
sea-floor levels, currents, and tides. When tides and currents dominate
the working conditions for a client in a coastal (shallow water) area,
deploying a SWAN domain instead of a Kalman filter is also a serious
option, although both work well.
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The approach taken to create a detailed and bespoke forecast will
ultimately depend on the specific requirements of each client. Working
with weather experts, companies can ensure they have access to the right
data for their needs.
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Category Three:
How Scalable
Downscaling
Contributes to Your
Weather Forecast
60
The weather model data the experts use for forecasting can cover large
grid areas of up to 50km. As a result, it doesn’t always consider the
impact of features that fall within those grid lines, such as changes in
elevation and land-use. Downscaling helps to overcome this problem—
during the process of downscaling, data from the large grid areas is
enhanced with geostatistical methods to make predictions about weather
and climate ‘on-the-spot’, particularly at the surface level.
The Scalable Downscaling (ScaDo) forecasting system combines the

quality of station-based MOS with information about land topography
and use, which makes it particularly effective in locations without any
observation stations nearby.
“Several weather parameters, like temperature and wind, are highly

dependent on altitude and land-use. We are happy we are able to provide
a good forecast for every location using ScaDo as a smart and flexible
downscaling tool”
- Wim van den Berg, Senior Meteorological Consultant,

Weather Tech Team
Where is scalable downscaling used?
To downscale MOS forecasts, the weather experts use data from

neighboring MOS stations or stations that are similar in altitude. Where
the density of MOS stations is high, and the terrain is not too complex
(e.g. no intricate coastlines, deep valleys or steep mountains) that works
fine. However, in more complex terrains and areas with just a few MOS
stations, the experts will start using ScaDo, which combines the quality
of station-based MOS with all kinds of terrain effects like altitude, slope,
land-use, nearby water, city conditions, etc.
By combining the quality of station-based MOS with information about

land topography and use, ScaDo forecasting systems become highly
effective in locations that don’t have observation stations.
How does ScaDo work?
Let’s take an example. Say you require a forecast for an Alpine

mountaintop that doesn’t have a weather station. To arrive at a reliable
weather forecast for that specific site, the experts look at all the other
weather stations in the region. Those observation posts are located at
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various elevations and certain distances from the site in question, so they
have to assign all of these observations a certain weight. This process is
called interpolation.
For our Alpine mountain top, for example, you would receive an
algorithm that forecasts the maximum temperature by assigning weights
to the surrounding points: A (30%), B (20%), and C (50%). If our site is
at an elevation of 3,000 meters, and the surrounding points are located
at least 500 meters lower, then we will also have to apply general
meteorological algorithms to arrive at a reliable forecast. The innovation
primarily lies in the increased flexibility of the algorithms, because
ScaDo takes better account of the continually changing, specific weather
conditions in the region. Because ScaDo is trained for the whole region,
it can also provide a forecast for a location without nearby weather
stations.
In mountainous areas, standard downscaling uses a static altitude

corrector for temperature, wind and precipitation levels. In ScaDo, the
altitude corrector is not static but dynamic; based on raw ECMWF data
and MOS station data it takes into account actual weather conditions.
Choosing between numerical modeling

and statistical processing
When it must be decided whether to rely on numerical modeling or

statistical processing, the weather experts will consider the customer’s
requirements and choose the method that will best suit their needs.
Typical considerations include:
• (Geo-)statistical downscaling (like ScaDo) delivers a value on any

location and therefore requires the kind of data points supplied by
observations or MOS for different landscapes, land use, and altitudes.
• Numerical models can be deployed anywhere, even when observations

are unavailable, but a numerical model always results in average
forecasts for grid boxes with “grid-averaged” terrain and land-use and
not in a point forecast.
• A hybrid approach is also possible, i.e., geo-statistical downscaling on

numerical model data points; however, this only works when model data
is available for different landscapes, land use, and altitudes. While this
hybrid approach is less expensive than running a microscale numerical
model, it lacks the advantage of starting from unbiased data points like
MOS.
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• MOS, by nature, scores better on point verification metrics like the
mean absolute error.
• As a numerical model uses physics, the output can be more extreme

than the input (due to factors such as funneling, katabatic wind effects
or focusing of waves due to refraction). The advantage is that extreme
events are better predicted.
• Each form of processing needs to be analyzed for its fitness for purpose
and the cost versus quality of the output.
• When a customer requires a detailed hindcast study, the high-

resolution numerical model can also be used to run a forecast in the past.
As ScaDo uses Multimodel MOS data for training, it benefits from

information from a variety of weather models. Near MOS stations, the
accuracy of the ScaDo forecast almost matches the high-level of accuracy
achieved with MOS. Compared to a numerical model ScaDo provides the
following unique data types:
• Expert derived elements like, effective cloudiness and weather type.
• Forecast along a route e.g. along power lines or a road.
• Microscale gridded forecasts that can be applied across the globe.
Using the cloud to scale with ease
ScaDo is also cloud-based, which means it doesn’t rely on in-house or

on-site computing power to process large volumes of data. In fact, thanks
to the cloud, ScaDo can virtually handle unlimited amounts of data
cost-effectively, making it particularly useful for projects where budget
and location constraints need to be taken into account. Developments
never come to an end; the experts are always on the lookout for new
possibilities and opportunities to help customers get the weather data
they need.
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Category Three:
The Straightforward
Guide to Road &
Route Models
64
During winter road maintenance, operations staff are under pressure
to guarantee traffic safety, while maximizing operational efficiency.
Treating roads too late can lead to accidents, traffic jams, and potential
fatalities. However, unnecessary treatment of roads can result in high
costs and avoidable environmental damage.
What are the Road & Routes Models?
Road & Route models are used to identify situations where the weather
poses a risk on the roads, including supporting gritting decisions and,
increasingly, supporting autonomous vehicle initiatives. They have been
specifically designed by the weather experts to address these challenges.
Here’s how the two models work:
• The road surface model combines a physical and statistical model,

designed to calculate the forecast for road surface temperature and
conditions at specific locations, such as Road weather information
system (RWIS) locations and downscaled locations (i.e. ‘on-the-spot’
forecasts).
• The route based forecast model is a physical model, designed to

calculate forecasts for road surface temperatures and conditions for
predefined gritting networks (or routes).
Both models draw on data from MeteoBase, which contains manually

controlled output from the MOS forecast system.
How the experts add value to Road &

Route Models?
For the road surface model, the experts use statistical modelling to
improve the physical model data with 3 years of historical observations.
This enables the road surface model to take into account the local
environment of an RWIS station. This improves the model’s accuracy.
They also run a bias filter that looks at the past 21 days to identify any
inconsistencies.
For the route forecast model, they apply scaling to the physical model
to improve the quality; for example, by adding information about the
temperature and condition at RWIS sites.
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“ Our road and route models are built and fine-tuned based on years of
experience in working for the road weather industry.“
- Marcel Wokke, Meteorological Researcher
How the Road & Route Models are used

today?
These forecasts are monitored and improved by meteorologists to ensure

accuracy and quality and then visually presented through a web portal. It
provides road safety managers the information needed to make informed
decisions on gritting, using hyperlocal data on road surface temperature,
black ice, hoar frost, snowfall, and freezing rain. These forecasts are
monitored and improved by meteorologists to ensure accuracy and
quality.
This information helps organizations in charge of road maintenance to

know when and where action is needed, including the type and amount of
chemicals to use and whether snow plows are required.
Through this insight, they can minimize gritting costs and environmental
impact, by avoiding unnecessary treatments and using the weather
forecast to know the right amount of salt and chemicals to use.
As well, the models can help to plan resources and improve operations,
by using the road weather forecasts to plan for personnel, chemicals, and
maintenance of equipment.
Using Road & Route Models to power

autonomous driving
Road & Route models are not just used for road maintenance; they’re
also critical for the automotive industry and, in particular, the drive
towards autonomous vehicles.
The weather experts are working closely with some of the world’s most
prestigious car brands to come up with in-car systems that will enable
autonomous vehicles to anticipate and handle even the most severe and
most rapidly-changing road conditions.
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Some car manufacturers are already delivering systems to help drivers
navigate away from rain and hail and towards blue skies and sunshine if
the driver decides to follow the directions. But in the future, autonomous
vehicles will rely fully on detailed, accurate, and real-time road and
weather information to ensure safety.
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Three Ingredients to Help Put Strategic
Weather Data Into Practice
To use weather data strategically, raw weather data is only part of the
solution. Making sense of the weather for your business also relies on
knowing historical weather data and also forecasting the future. In short,
the more you know about weather patterns, the more strategic your
decision making will be. To put strategic weather data into practice, here
are the three ingredients you need.
#1 Hyper local information through an IoE

strategy

If you gather hyper local weather information in real-time, you facilitate
instant decision making, based on true facts. This comes in handy
when you want to inform users on road conditions (in the automotive
industry), use the energy grid to its full potential (energy), or save costs
through climate management (horticulture).

Sometimes, you can use the information set in motion follow-up actions,
like adjusting the speed of a car based on its estimate braking distance.
Sometimes you’ll use the information to gain insights into the timing of
purchases, like when exactly did the consumer buy that beer. Either way,
hyper local information will provide you with valuable information that
you can use to make better products and adjust them to actual demand.
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#2 Accurate hindcasting, forecasting
and calculation models
The more you know about weather patterns, the easier it becomes to
make the right strategic decisions. Hindcasting and forecasting alone
bring you nothing but raw data, meaning you’ll need to combine this
information with other business data. With the right calculation models,
hindcasting and forecasting can be turned into concrete business
answers.
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#3 Weather experts that understand
weather and your business challenges
Do you switch off when you hear words like “algorithms” and “models”?
Don’t worry. Meteorology is a specialism, meaning specialists that
can do the work for you. Whether you have in-house meteorologists or
not, calling in the help of a third party is a good idea when starting with
strategic weather data. This is because the possibilities are endless, and
there’s no need for you to explore them all. Sometimes, all you need is a
“yes” or “no” or a percentage, such as in the case of dynamic line rating.
Therefore, sit down with a party that knows how to use weather data
strategically and helps you deploy it IT-wise, so you can focus on results
instead of weather maps and forecasts. They can collaborate with
your own meteorologists and come up with a plan and pass on their
knowledge to them. This way, you can have your strategic weather plan
up and running in no time.
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Category Four:
QUALITY
CONTROL & DATA
PROVISIONING
71
Weather forecasting is not something you have; it’s something you do.
Just like playing football and learning to drive a Formula 1 car, you have
to work on your skills to become better and more successful in the future.
This is important if you’re Lionel Messi or Max Verstappen, but also if
you’re a professional meteorologist.
Every day, new weather data comes in that has to be checked for
accuracy, completeness, and irregularities. New and better calculation
models not only improve weather forecasting, but also improve the
accuracy of historical data, which is equally as important to make
predictions. Clearly, quality control and data provisioning are worth the
time. But what do the weather experts check? And how do they ensure
it’s accurate?
“Our clients make decisions based on our data. These decisions can affect
the safety of people and involve high costs. At MeteoGroup, we are always
aware of the high responsibility that comes with our crucial role in the
processes of clients. Providing highest accuracy for those weather situations
where our clients and their downstream activities are most vulnerable is key
for us. When we measure data accuracy and forecast quality we take a strict
user perspective. We apply scores which are scientifically sound and still
intuitively understandable.”
Evelyn Müller, Verification Manager
So many reasons to be accurate
Let’s start by answering a very important question: why are the continual
quality and data management improvements so important? First of all,
the difference between somewhat accurate data and highly accurate data
can make or break a business. For example, weather routing gets ships
from A to B on the optimal route.
On the flip side, inaccurate forecasts cost businesses. False alarms in

offshore operations can unnecessarily add days to projects, increase
costs, whilst on the other side under-forecasted winds or waves put the
lives and safety of personnel at risk. No matter what industry companies
work in; they rely on weather experts to provide them with accurate
information on the weather so they can make better decisions. This is
why transparency and accuracy are essential parts of every forecast, every
single day.
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Quality checks can be divided into two categories: control for
observations and control for weather models and forecasting system
output. Below, we’ll talk you through both.
1. Control for observations
Observational data is gathered in several ways, such as through

weather stations, radars, satellites, and lightning detection. Although
“observing the weather” sounds rather simplistic, it really isn’t.
Instruments, coverage, standardization; they can all be improved to
provide better observations. When it comes to weather stations, for
example, meteorologists continuously monitor the arriving data streams
for measurement and transmission errors while standardizing the data
for universal use. They also apply specific quality-checks for historical
observation data to ensure consistent time series. At the same time, the
scientists keep on improving the algorithms that clean precipitation
radar data, by removing false echo signals. As for satellite data, images
are checked for completeness to prevent black spots in presentation.
2. Control for weather models and forecasting

systems
Meteorologists draw data from multiple weather models to improve the

accuracy of forecast systems like MOS, nautical models or road models.
For each model, they do baseline measurements to verify its accuracy
for specific sites, periods, and elements on demand. At the same time,
they monitor their performance at the crucial decision points of clients.
Additionally, the meteorologists measure the impact of the proprietary
forecasting systems against the baseline, to make sure they stay top of
the class.
In addition to all of these quality checks, meteorologists also draw up

monthly reports on client-specific forecast KPIs, so they can be compared
to the months before. They need this information to keep track of their
improvements for the client. To top it off, they also draw up monthly
reports on forecast KPIs for internal use, as a quality retrospective.
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Supporting quality checks with data
provisioning
Data Management is responsible for ingesting, processing and storing

all the incoming data; both sourced and generated. Once it has been
processed to the high standards required, the data is shared with various
departments and forms the backbone of products.
Obsession or passion? It doesn’t matter
When it comes to the quality of data, weather models and forecasting

systems that you invest in, you should spare no expense. The market
pressures demands highly accurate weather data and strategic support,
so that’s what they should get. Each new day brings more information
that helps the weather experts to improve, which is why they will never
be done investing in quality control. Call it obsession, call it passion; it
doesn’t matter. At the end of the day, it’s the result that counts.
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Category Four:
Quality Control & Data Provisioning
How Data
Provisioning Adds
Value to Weather
Data
75
Your organization is one-of-a-kind. The data you’re using, tracking and
storing is likely to be unique to you and your needs. But over time, data
integrity can be compromised, which is bad news for business. Poor
quality data costs $3.1 trillion a year in the US alone.
The good news for you is that, when it comes to your weather data, you
don’t need to worry - so long as the experts manage it.
Data scientist enjoy solving complex puzzles. If something doesn’t work

as expected, all kinds of cogs start spinning in their heads to try and
solve the problem. They dig into systems and also work to achieve a
robust future-proof solution, ensuring the weather data is as accurate as
possible. Let us show you how they do it.
“The Data Provisioning team is taking care of processing weather data to the
highest standards, to give the weather experts the most accurate and reliable
information they need.”
Dr. Marco Radke-Fretz, Data Manager (Data Provisioning)
How the experts manage weather data

effectively
The Data Provisioning (DP) division is responsible for ingesting,

processing and storing all incoming data; both sourced and generated.
If something goes wrong in that processing, if parameters are missing
or lacking, then DP will look for the leak and get it sorted as soon as
possible.
However, the senior software engineers do much more than just solve
problems. They streamline data processes, construct the transition of all
data processes into the cloud, and extract all kinds of derived weather
data from the incoming information, ensuring that it’s ready for the
weather room.
The data is processed by the team to the highest standards, to give the
weather experts the most accurate and reliable information they need.
The data is shared with internal departments, to form the backbone of
each and every forecast.
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The Two Data Provisioning Disciplines
Data provisioning for weather forecasting covers two distinct areas:
1. Observation data, which deals primarily with observation, lightning

and radar data
2. Model data, which focuses on model/grid and ensemble.

Although there are some exceptions, the data provisioning division
primarily provides data to other internal teams, rather than directly to
the customer
How data provisioning adds value to

weather data
This technology continues to evolve and innovate at a rapid pace, but

there are four fundamentals, where data management adds real value:
• Trust: 99.9% data availability, migration to the AWS cloud, and

continuous monitoring of servers and services by the Operations Center
all help instill trust in the team.
• Availability: data is delivered in industry-standard formats including

SI (Système international) and WMO-approved units (e.g. Celsius).
• Speed: Over 90% of the data is available within a few minutes of it

being received from a third party.
• Visualization: usability of forecasting data is vastly improved

thanks to the ability to data and prepare it for online and on-screen
presentation.
Ensuring modern data provisioning
Modern weather forecasting data arrives in large quantities and from

many different sources. Without the best DP teams and technology, the
forecasts simply wouldn’t be as powerful or reliable as modern customers
expect it to be.
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But there’s still more to be done. Historically, data was processed via local
servers. This meant data processing had to be done step-by-step because
server capacity was limited. Essentially, when data came in, the first step
in the process could start, and only when that was finished could the next
step begins.
Now, investment in modern cloud computing enables DP to run tasks

in parallel, meaning more can be done at the same time. Plus DP can
automatically scale up or down processing capacity, depending on their
needs at the time. There’s still more work to be done to make all stages
cloud-based, but doing ensure data processing is future-ready.
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Category Four:
Quality Control & Data Provisioning
The Non-
Meteorologist’s
Guide to Weather
Data Quality Control
79
If the weather is important to your business, you’re going to care about
the quality of your data. Every element of the weather forecasting process
is rigorously and objectively monitored by the experts to improve data
accuracy and your confidence in the data. They use verification methods
recommended by the World Meteorology Organization to ensure
standards are maintained.
It requires a lot of investment; meteorological researchers and their

expertise are vital to quality control. As well, quality control requires
supporting technology to ensure all the necessary checks can happen.
“We work together with an international group of people that dedicate

themselves to forecasting verification. So, we can easily measure if we do
something scientifically sound. ”
Evelyn Müller,
Verification Manager
What is quality control?
Quality control is a key step for all elements of the weather forecasting
process. It’s a way of maintaining standards, by testing the outputs
against the expected output. It typically takes place in two stages:
• Incoming observation data, which is checked for accuracy,

completeness, and irregularities.
• Forecast performance, which is verified before being used for

reporting, and also provides input for both learning and improving
forecast systems.
How the experts apply quality controls to

observations
Observations are subject to intensive quality control procedures. For

instance, weather stations are checked to remove errors to standardize
the data for universal use and provide quality-checked accurate historical
observation data. Algorithms are used to declutter the radar data and
reduce the number of false precipitation signals.
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How the experts apply quality controls to
weather models
The experts draw data from multiple weather models to improve the
accuracy of their forecast systems. This includes monitoring performance
and establishing a baseline for model verification, which is the on-
demand analysis of forecast against observation data for specific sites,
periods, and element. They also measure the impact of their proprietary
forecasting systems against the baseline. Here is how they apply the
checks to forecasting systems:
Model Output Statistics (MOS): Forecasts are archived in the

Verification Database, which is an archive containing raw data for
ECMWF, MOS, observations, maritime, and road data. These are used for:
• Daily monitoring of forecast quality for the weather room.
• Verification for specific sites, periods, and elements on (customer)

demand.
• External reports on monthly client-specific forecast KPIs.
• Internal reports on monthly forecast KPIs for the board, which forms
the quality retrospectives.
• MOS statistics itself are also used, for example the value of any weather
parameter averaged over all stations should not change much when a
new MOS forecast is ready
Nautical MeteoBase (NMB): Forecasts for grid points near reporting

buoys or platforms are archived in the Verification Database for:
• Daily verification for a subset of buoys and platforms in the North Sea.

demand.
• Monthly client-specific verification of quality-checked offshore

observations.
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Scalable Downsizing (ScaDo): ScaDo is a forecasting system for areas
with limited observation data and, therefore, there are few verification
options. To compensate, the weather experts apply an “out of sample”
verification process called ScoreCard during the development of the
forecasting method. Once ScaDo is operational, they apply a similar
method to a small set of weather stations.
Road & Route models: The forecasts are archived in the Verification
Database for:

demand.
• Client-specific road weather verification.
• Quality reporting for route based forecasts using the downscaling

technique.
Why the experts are essential for quality

controls
Experienced meteorological experts play a central role in enhancing

and making the best use of the data behind weather forecasts. Because
meteorologists make improvements in the forecast systems, quality
controls are used to validate whether manual changes were correct.
An important part of their role is also creating custom reports for both
internal and customer verification; essentially showing the accuracy level
of the forecast.
The verification system used by the experts is well defined and

transparent, providing context around quality and performance. But
not every weather company offers this level of detail. The learnings are
applied by the experts to raise the bar on forecast-specific and generic
value parameters to help you get the accuracy levels you need to make
informed decisions.
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Category Five:
METEOROLOGY
AND FORECASTING
EXPERTISE
83
Some people think that to come to accurate weather forecasting, you
need the right team with the right equipment. They’re not wrong.
However, in reality, you need a little more than that. Weather forecasting
revolves around data, which means that you need specialists to gather
the data, decode it, turn it into understandable information and create
customer-specific solutions that make a real difference to the strategic
decision-making process. One person alone cannot do everything that’s
needed. Or, at least, they can’t if you want to do it right. In this chapter,
we tell you about the five (!) teams that together form the ultimate
weather forecasting squad.
“As a professional weather company you rely on timely and accurate

processing of incoming weather observations and raw data from numerical
weather models by a joint effort of your data team, your developers and your
forecasters. Each team contributes with its own skills and expertise.”
Dennis Schulze, Chief Meteorology Officer
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Category Five:
Meteorology and Forecasting Expertise
The Ultimate
Weather
Forecasting Squad -
5 Teams You Need
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Team 1. Data provisioning
First up is the data provisioning team. Here is where you find data
analysts that document all incoming weather data – ingesting and
processing it in a way that other teams of the squad can understand.
The members of the data processing team speak the required technical
languages and know how to decode weather data, no matter where it
comes from. They also know how to interpret weather model changes and
changes in radar and satellite data; valuable information that they’ll pass
on to other teams.
Team 2. Weather forecasters
Where the data management team focuses on information that’s already

been gathered, the weather forecasters look for information on future
events. They monitor the weather 24/7, so they can inform the media and
customers on upcoming weather conditions. They’re also responsible
for adjusting the forecasting systems when observations differ from
actual weather conditions. In addition, the weather forecasters report
on extreme weather, such as heavy storms, thunder, or winter road
conditions.
Team 3. Meteorological services
There’s a difference between accurate weather forecasting and gathering

weather-related information that’s valuable to your company. This is
why the meteorological services team is so talented. They stand in close
contact with customers and know which specific weather information
they need. They collaborate with the weather forecasters and the data
processing team and use their data to create more accurate reports.
This can be a metocean report, for example, which informs a shipping
company on conditions like wind speed and wave height in a specific cell
on the grid.
Together, team 4 and 5 form the meteorological research team. However,

as their priorities cover two distinct areas, let’s explore these separately:
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Team 4. Professional services
Although the meteorological services team provides customers with

specific weather information, customer-centricity is taken one step
further by the professional services team. Here, customer-specific
data from the meteorological services team is used to create solutions
that add immediate value to the customer’s product or service. This
can be a report on grid capacity for an energy company, de-icing
recommendations for an airline, or wave analyses for companies in
shipping or offshore.
Team 5. Weather systems
As we explained in a previous chapter, data has to be checked for

accuracy, completeness, and irregularities. This is why the other half
of the meteorological research team concentrates on the testing and
verification of forecasting reports. The weather systems team defines
and tests algorithms to improve the quality of observations and forecast
verification. They maintain and conduct research on the existing
forecasting systems and integrate new developments and improvements.
You might say the weather systems team is the R&D department of the
weather forecasting squad! Apart from this very responsible task, the
weather systems team is also in charge of knowledge management, in
terms of publications done by the model operators, accuracy scores, and
overall performance.
“I don’t have room for so many people!”
And there you have it: five teams that together form the ultimate
weather forecasting squad. Don’t be scared though; you don’t have to
hire thirty new employees. You probably work with data analyst already,
and maybe you even have in-house weather forecasters. The professional
services team consists of people that you can “borrow”, which means you
can hire experts to help you integrate weather forecasts in your strategic
decision-making process. Weather people are flexible that way!
87
Category Five:
Meteorology and Forecasting Expertise
Improving Weather
Data One Industry at
a Time
88
While we ramble on about weather forecasting (which we hope you
appreciate), you’re perhaps starting to wonder what this means for
you. When it comes to the weather, different industries have different
challenges and different needs. If you work for a media company, for
example, you need people that can explain the weather in a human way.
If you work in shipping or offshore, you’re probably more focused on how
weather, like waves and squalls, impacts your day-to-day operations.
In addition to all the industry-specific needs, every company needs

highly accurate, personalized weather reports. Combined, this forms
quite the shopping list! We’ll tell how weather experts deal with all of the
requirements by revealing how they support eight key industries.
Keep calm and enrich your weather data
Sadly, high quality data doesn’t come on a silver platter (if only that were
true!). This means that all incoming weather data needs to be enriched
before it can add value in any given sector.
So, before anything else, weather experts work on the improvement of

the quality of their data. When it comes to weather observations, for
example, the data provisioning team maintains and adapts the decoding
of observations, whereas the weather services team defines and tests
algorithms for quality control. A little further down the road, the same
data management team ingests, processes, and interpolates weather
model data while forecasters monitor and communicate changes in
general weather patterns. Then there’s the weather services team
maintaining and applying derived elements. And this is only the tip of
the iceberg.
The work done by the weather experts across all industries can be
categorized into two disciplines: the meteorological researchers and
forecasters. The first specializes in researching and developing products,
which ingest quality-controlled data, for specific industry use-cases.
The latter is in direct contact with customers and interprets the models
for the specific customer use cases. For example, working with local
authorities to know whether to grit a road or not during the winter
months; or with offshore companies to know whether or not they can
work safely in the weather conditions.
89
8 industries = 8 approaches
This data enrichment process applies to all industries. However, some

industries depend more on model data or automated solutions and
platforms, while others depend more on forecaster expertise. This has
a huge impact on the way that weather experts work. In most cases,
companies need a combination of meteorological research and the
expertise of forecasters. Let’s see how this works for the eight industries
listed below:
#1. Media
Like we said in the introduction, media companies need weather experts

that talk about the weather in an easy to understand way. This is why,
for this industry, weather forecasters are responsible for the biggest
part of the job (around 80%). Think about radio interviews, text writing,
consulting, briefing, and presenting (TV, video content, vlogs). The other
20% is focused on meteorological research and data visualization.
#2. Transport
For transport, specifically winter roads maintenance, the percentages

are comparable. Here, around 80% is focused on the work of forecasters,
in terms of text writing, asset monitoring, alerting (IVR, email, texting,
voice messaging), reporting, and consulting. Obviously, tone of voice
is less important here, but clients do need to be trained so they learn
to interpret the data in the right way. 20% of the work revolves around
meteorological research; in particular, using the road and route models.
#3. Offshore
This comparison is getting slightly monotonous, but in offshore, the

proportions are comparable too. 80% of the work is done by forecasters,
who deal with text writing, data enrichment, monitoring (but this time,
think squalls, wave heights, and wind speeds), routing, briefing, and
long-term forecasting. As is the case in transport, forecasters spend a
lot of time on client trainings too. 20% revolves around meteorological
research, focused on metocean studies in particular.
90
#4. Shipping
When we look at the shipping industry, the expertise balance switches.

Here, 80% is focused on meteorological research for improving the ship
performance and monitoring system. The other 20% in spent on routing,
performance reporting, explanation, consulting, briefing, and data
monitoring by forecasters.
#5. Energy
The same goes for energy. Here, 80% is spent on meteorological research.
Sub-seasonal forecasting and dynamic line rating are important in this
industry, both of which benefits from historical data and hindcasting.
The other 20% of the work revolves around text writing, consultancy,
explanation, client-specific data enrichment, reporting, and yes: sub-
seasonal forecasting.
#6. Insurance
In the insurance sector, a lot of time is spent on meteorological research

(80%), with observations particularly important. This is needed to
forecast peak hours and to check claim reliability. The other 20% is dealt
with by forecasters, who, for example, report on severe weather events.
#7. Agriculture
For the agricultural sector, 100% of the expert time is spent on

meteorological research. Here, observation data is used to keep track
of humidity, water temperature, CO2, and solar radiation, both outside
and in greenhouses. Often, weather forecasts are directly linked to the
decision-making process. For example, greenhouse owners use weather
data to trigger rooftops to open and close, to reposition the windows and
to manage the lights.
91
#8. Consumer apps
Admittedly, “consumer apps” is not really a sector. However, the weather

experts like to think of them as one, as they’re all 100% focused on
meteorological research. The app builders use enriched weather data
to optimize their services, meaning that forecaster services are less
important for this particular sector.
The weather experts always base their services on the industry type and
customer-specific requirements. Because, after all, what’s the use of
highly accurate weather data, if the information isn’t relevant for you?
92
Conclusion
THE 16 WEATHER
OBSERVATION AND
FORECASTING
VALUE
PARAMETERS,
EXPLAINED
93
If your forecast isn’t reliable, you’ll not be able to access the insights you
need to make informed business decisions. Inaccurate weather forecasts
lead to offshore companies missing weather windows during projects,
insurance companies that are insufficiently staffed during severe
weather, and transmission system operators running power lines over or
under capacity - to name just a few examples.
But how do the weather experts know when good is actually good? And
how can you recognize when the weather data you receive is held to
the highest standard? Enter into the ring the weather observation and
forecasting value parameters.
These value parameters are a framework, used by the weather experts, to

ensure each and every step that they take adds value to the weather data.
Quite simply, success comes down to measuring the result against the
following value parameters.
“In a probabilistic forecast you cannot take one case and say the forecast
is right or wrong. You will have to take many, many forecasts and then
compare.... Suppose 92 percent of the minimum temperatures forecasted
were correct and our competitor says: ‘we had 95 percent correct’. It is not
that plain and simple. Maybe they took a boundary of 2.5 degrees, where we
took 2.0 degrees. Well, in that case, you cannot compare the results. We are
very open with customers when we are in direct contact with them. However,
if we would just put numbers on our website, they could be misinterpreted
and misused.”
Dennis Schulze, Chief Meteorological Officer at MeteoGroup
What are the weather observations and

forecasting value parameters?
There are 16 weather observation and forecasting value parameters,

which are grouped into four areas:
• Generic meteorological value parameters
• Forecast specific value parameters
• Meteorological quality value parameters
• Technology quality value parameters
94
They are applied (as applicable) to the Five Categories that are essential
to a high-quality professional forecasting service. Let’s explore the
parameters in more detail and share how they add value to every
category.
Generic meteorological value parameters
The generic meteorological value parameters apply to Category 1:

Weather Observations, Category 2: Metocean models, and Category 3:
Statistical post processing.
Value Parameter 1: Frequency
Definition: How regularly the observation data or model data is

delivered
How the experts put it into practice: The weather experts invest in
higher-frequency updates from weather stations for specific locations.
Value Parameter 2: Resolution, temporal
Definition: The time span between two shared values
How the experts put it into practice: The experts can use an algorithm
to reduce the 5-minute interval between radar images to 1-minute.
Value Parameter 3: Resolution, spatial
Definition: The density of the grid (radar, satellite, and model), as well
as granularity of the weather station network
How the experts put it into practice: Standard grid sizes are 10km,
25km or 50km but the density can be increased to hyper-local or
downscaled for weather station using an algorithm. In-house metocean
models can have a spatial resolution down to hundreds of meters.
95
Value Parameter 4: Coverage
Definition: Areas where the experts can provide observations or

forecasts
How the experts put it into practice: The experts provide global
coverage through weather stations observations, with access to a network
of 20,000 stations. Global coverage is also available for models including
MOS, Nautical MeteoBase, and Road models. ScaDo complements this, by
providing forecasts for locations with no observations.
Value Parameter 5: Completeness
Definition: To what extent the element is defined
How the experts put it into practice: All MOS forecast locations have
hourly forecasts for all elements, with downscaling algorithms used
to compensate when a station is unable to deliver data on a particular
element.
Value Parameter 6: Uniqueness
Definition: The Availability of non-standard elements and derived

elements
How the experts put it into practice: The in-house metocean models
provide the ability to access output parameters that are inaccessible in
external data sources (i.e., spectral moments, effective cloud cover).
Forecast-specific value parameters
The forecast-specific value parameters typically apply to Category 2:

Metocean models and Category 3: Statistical Post Processing.
96
Value Parameter 7: Accuracy
Definition: Forecast is correct (within a margin) for deterministic values
How the experts put it into practice: 98% of the forecasts are within
a 2-degree margin. The MOS provides high-quality forecasts for many
stations, while ScaDo improves the temperature forecasts in valleys and
mountains.
Value Parameter 8: Reliability
Definition: Forecast is consistent
How the experts put it into practice: The forecasts follow the correct
pattern, even if there is a bias (structural over- or under-forecasting).
Two years of training data ensure the MOS can be adjusted to local
observation sites.
Value Parameter 9: Skill
Definition: Forecast is a hit, miss or false alarm
How the experts put it into practice: The experts measure whether the
forecast is a hit (correct forecast), miss (exceeding the defined threshold
but not forecasted), or false alarm (not exceeding the defined threshold,
but forecasted). The MOS combines data from several models to improve
the skill, as it takes out inconsistencies.
Value Parameter 10: Sharpness
Definition: Precision of the forecasts in time and space
How the experts put it into practice: The experts apply sharpness by
ensuring the specificity of the forecast. It is the difference between it is
going to rain versus it is going to rain at 10am in Amsterdam.
97
Value Parameter 11: Uncertainty
Definition: Spread of the probabilistic / ensemble forecast plume.

Historic cases can sometimes be used to estimate the level of uncertainty
How the experts put it into practice: 25-50 ensemble forecast

scenarios determine the outlines of the plume.
Meteorological quality value parameter
The meteorological quality value parameter is important for Category 2:

Metocean models and Category 4: Quality Control & Data Management.
It is, however, driven by the meteorological expertise, which is Category 5
in the weather forecasting methodology.
Value Parameter 12: Correct
Definition: Checked and errors are corrected where necessary
How the experts put it into practice: Forecasters edit the MOS forecast
after comparing it with new observations and new model data. And,
when it comes to data management, the experts carry out observation
decoding, weather model changes, radar/satellite changes.
Technology quality value parameters
The technology quality value parameters primarily apply to Category 4:

Quality Control & Data Management.
Value Parameter 13: Trusts
Definition: Access to data always available, with no outages
How the experts put it into practice: The experts provide a redundant
network, with 99.9% data availability. The migration to the AWS cloud,
and continuous monitoring of servers and services by the MG Operations
Center, further supports this value parameter.
98
Value Parameter 14: Availability
Definition: Data is accessible in standard formats
How the experts put it into practice: The formats include SI (Système
international) / WMO-approved units (e.g. Celsius) and industry standard
data formats.
Value Parameter 15: Speed
Definition: Data is accessible for customers within minutes
How the experts put it into practice: More than 90% of data is
ingested, processed, and delivered within a few minutes of being
provided by a third party.
Value Parameter 16: Visualization
Definition: Improve the usability of the data
How the experts put it into practice: The experts visualize the data
and prepare it for online and on-screen presentations, which improves its
usability.
99
CONCLUSION
100
The same weather conditions can mean very different things to different
companies in different industries. Whether you want to reduce costs and
your environmental footprint in shipping, increase food production in
greenhouses, or save lives by making winter roads safer, knowing what
the weather will be, and, more importantly, how it will affect you, relies
on the right information.
As a company that knows the weather, MeteoGroup does everything

possible to deliver customers accurate weather forecasts. But achieving
this goal relies on blending the right mix of data, expertise, and customer
insight.
Getting the weather right isn’t easy or cheap. We all have weather apps
on our phones. But this isn’t the same as accurate weather data that
support your specific needs. Accurate forecasts require substantial
investment. As we’ve demonstrated through this Ultimate Guide,
you need to manage and process the data, bring together the right
experts, and build the infrastructure to support all this work – not a
straightforward task.
Forward-thinking companies are already leveraging weather data,

delivered by the expert, as part of their decision-making toolkit. They
leverage accurate forecasts and insight from expert meteorologists, to
ensure that whatever the conditions, they are prepared.
About MeteoGroup
This ultimate guide was written by MeteoGroup, the global weather

authority. Our team of expert meteorologists is on hand 24/7/365 to
deliver the highest-quality analysis and support. With offices in 12
countries around the world and 9 weather rooms in 8 of these countries,
we’re perfectly placed to provide local services to a global audience.
We’re backed by TBG AG, a Switzerland-based private holding, and are
also the company behind the best-selling weather apps WeatherPro and
MeteoEarth as well as numerous weather websites.
Want to know more about the way we work and how we can help you?
Get in touch!
https://www.meteogroup.com/contact-us
101
Glossary
38 WEATHER
FORECASTING
TERMS YOU NEED
TO KNOW
102
There are so many unique terms used in modern weather forecasting
that it can feel like the weather experts have their own language. To help
you get to grips with the terminology, we’ve curated together 38 weather
forecasting terms that you need to know.
So, from ensemble forecasting to spatial resolution, here are definitions

you need:
Bathymetry
This is usually referenced as Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) or Mean
Sea Level (MSL) and refers to seafloor elevation.
Climate Forecast / CF Convention

Designed to promote the processing and sharing of files created with
the NetCDF API, these conventions enable users of data from different
sources to decide which quantities are comparable.
Decluttering
This is a cleaning process that removes false signals or ‘clutter’ from raw
data, thus improving its accuracy. Our own algorithm can detect and
remove false signals from real radar echoes.
Derived or converted data

Raw data manipulated so that it can provide better insight, for instance,
the addition of extra data.
Downscaling
Weather model data used for forecasting is usually available on a coarse
grid and doesn’t always resolve local weather within those grid lines.
With downscaling, you can combine geospatial data with data from the
coarse grid.
ECMWF
Stands for the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting
(including the ocean).
Ensemble forecasting
Minor changes in the atmosphere can have a dramatic effect on forecasts.
Ensemble forecasting is when a weather model is run several times in
parallel with small changes to the initial conditions each time, resulting
in an ensemble or set of forecasts.
103
ENS plume
This refers to the fifty slightly perturbed runs of ECMWF atmospheric
weather model’s moderate resolution forecast. The data is used to
provide a distribution of possible values per weather element. Wider
plumes indicate more uncertain weather.
Forecast window/depth
This is the length of a forecast. For instance, a 10-day forecast window
means a forecast of ten days ahead.
Funneling
When wind parcels need to squeeze through smaller openings. This
speeds them up and is otherwise known as the Venturi Effect.
Gap filling
See interpolation.
Grid
Refers to the collection of points in two or three dimensions with
attributes describing the static environment (such as depth, elevation,
land mask, and vegetation).
Governing equations
Describe how the values of unknown variables within a model change
when one or more of the known variables changes. For instance,
conservation of mass, energy, momentum (Navier-Stokes).
Harmonic components
The gravitational pull of the sun and the moon influences the tide on
earth. These orbits are sometimes referred to as bathymetry, and it’s
possible to compute water elevation and the resulting currents via
superposition of a series of cosines.
Hindcast
This is a model study that predicts values for a time in the past. Used
mainly to compare model data with measurements to assess model
behavior.
“On-the-spot”
It’s possible to make weather forecasts hyperlocal by zooming in on
expected conditions at precise locations and point in time.
104
Interpolation
Sometimes referred to as ‘gap filling’, this is the process of filling
in the unknown data between two known values. This is usually
done by drawing on a wide range of knowledge sources from expert
meteorologists.
Metocean
A combination of the words ‘meteorology’ and ‘oceanography’. Refers to
data which originates from either field.
MeteoBase
This is the final, edited version of MOS forecasts (see MOS).
Model
A set of governing equations and utilities to input and output data.
MOS
Stands for ‘model output statistics’ and describes the post-processing
technique that reduces systematic errors in raw weather model data.
MOS station
Typically a location for which there is observation data available. It
can also be a location with no observation data available, but which is
downscaled. A MOS station can be physical or virtual.
Multi-model forecasting
Describes the process of using several weather models to generate a
(usually more accurate) weather forecast.
NCAR
National Centre of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
NCEP
National Centre of Environmental Prediction, a subsidiary of NOAA
located in Washington D.C.
NOAA
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Sprint,
Maryland.
Nowcasting
This describer the forecasting of weather for the short term (typically
from 2-6 hours). It can usually forecast accurately for small events such
as individual showers and thunderstorms.
105
Ocean circulation
Refers to the global current in the ocean basins that are caused by
differences in temperature, salinity, and wind shear.
Orography
The study of the topographic relief of mountains. Can also include hills
and most elevated terrains.
Residual current
See ocean circulation
Spatial resolution
The granularity or density of geographic grids that are being used to track
atmospheric conditions. Smaller grids offer higher spatial resolution and
more accurate results.
SWAN
Stands for ‘Simulating Waves Nearshore’, and is a third-generation wave
model that computes random, short-crested, wind-generated waves in
coastal regions and inland waters.
Temporal resolution
Refers to the timespan between measurements for forecasts. More
frequent measurements result in higher temporal resolutions.
Verification
Undertaken on demand, this is the analysis of forecast against
observation data for specific sites, periods and elements.
Verification database
The archive that contains raw data for the ECMWF model, MOS,
observations, maritime and road data, and more.
WRF
Stands for ‘Weather Research and Forecasting’ and refers to the model
developed by the National Centre of Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Weather code
A number that classifies the weather conditions. For instance, fog
patches or shower with hail. They help define the weather icons we
typically see on TV forecasts.
Wx
A morse code word for ‘weather’ (.-- -..-).
106
To find out more visit our Knowledge Base
The Internet of Everything Working in the Margins: How Maximizing Efficiency and
& the Weather: A business Climatology and Metocean Data Safety Through Optimized
success formula Can Transform Offshore Project Weather Routing
Read Now Read Now Read Now
107
CONTRIBUTIONS
Thanks to everyone who helped in the
making of this guide
108
Wim van den Berg
Senior meteorological consultant | Weather Systems Team
Weather Stations, Statistical Post Processing, Scalable Downscaling
Valentijn van Gastel

Product Manager – Offshore & Nautical Data
External Metocean models
Sander Hulst
Senior Oceanographic Researcher
In-house Metocean models
Maurits Geuze, MSc

Application Domain Expert Marine
Nautical MeteoBase
Dr. Marco Radke-Fretz

Data Manager (Data Provisioning)
Weather Satellites, Lightning Detection, Data Management
Dr Hugo Hartmann
Senior Meteo Scientist
Metocean models
Floris Bijlsma
Senior Meteorological Researcher
Weather Radar, MG MOS & MeteoBase
Evelyn Müller
Verification Manager
Quality Control & Data
Dennis Schulz
Chief Meteorology Officer
Meteorological Expertise
Marcel Wokke
Meteorological researcher
Road & Route Models
109
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HOW

The Five Categories to Create a Highly Accurate Weather Forecast.................................................. 8

Weather Observation Networks.............................................................................................................. 12

Where are the main types of weather observation networks?................................................................ 13

The four main weather observation sources used by weather experts................................................... 13

Creating forecasts from observation data.............................................................................................. 15

What type of data available from weather stations................................................................................ 17

How to identify accurate weather stations sources................................................................................ 19

How is this improved data used to create a forecast?............................................................................ 19

What data is available from radar?........................................................................................................ 21

How do weather experts improve the data to create a forecast?............................................................ 22

The five methods to improve radar data................................................................................................ 22

Weather radar helps minimize the impact of precipitation on business................................................ 23

What data is available from satellite?.................................................................................................... 25

How do weather experts improve the data to create a forecast? ........................................................... 26

Weather satellite helps minimize weather-related risk for businesses.................................................. 27

What data is available from lightning detection?.................................................................................. 30

How do weather experts improve the data to create a forecast?............................................................ 30

Detection helps minimize the impact on businesses............................................................................. 31

Meteorological and Oceanographic (Metocean) Models........................................................................ 32

What information do metocean models provide?.................................................................................. 33

What information do metocean models provide?.................................................................................. 34

How do the metocean experts use metocean models?........................................................................... 34

What are the limits of metocean models?.............................................................................................. 34

External versus in-house metocean modeling....................................................................................... 35

What are the main external datasets available in the market................................................................ 37

How a multi-model approach increases forecast accuracy.................................................................... 39

How metocean experts add value to the model data.............................................................................. 40

In-house Metocean Modeling: What You Need to Know.................................................................. 41

How do the experts create a numerical metocean model?..................................................................... 43

What is the added value of in-house metocean models?....................................................................... 43

Accessing just the insight you need....................................................................................................... 44

Statistical Post Processing...................................................................................................................... 45

The four main flavors of statistical post processing.............................................................................. 46

The six-step process to create the MOS................................................................................................. 51

How do the weather experts keep the MOS accurate?........................................................................... 54

How is the MOS used?............................................................................................................................ 54

How the Experts Use Nautical MeteoBase for Marine Applications................................................. 55

How is NMB used?................................................................................................................................. 56

How the experts combine models for the best forecasts........................................................................ 56

What is a Kalman filter?......................................................................................................................... 57

How Scalable Downscaling Contributes to Your Weather Forecast.................................................. 60

Where is scalable downscaling used?..................................................................................................... 61

How does ScaDo work?.......................................................................................................................... 61

Choosing between numerical modeling and statistical processing........................................................ 62

Using the cloud to scale with ease......................................................................................................... 63

The Straightforward Guide to Road & Route Models....................................................................... 64

What are the Road & Routes Models?.................................................................................................... 65

How the experts add value to Road & Route Models?........................................................................... 65

How the Road & Route Models are used today?.................................................................................... 66

Using Road & Route Models to power autonomous driving.................................................................. 66

Three Ingredients to Help Put Strategic Weather Data Into Practice..................................................... 68

#1 Hyper local information through an IoE strategy.............................................................................. 68

#2 Accurate hindcasting, forecasting and calculation models............................................................... 69

#3 Weather experts that understand weather and your business challenges......................................... 70

So many reasons to be accurate............................................................................................................. 72

Supporting quality checks with data provisioning................................................................................. 74

Obsession or passion? It doesn’t matter................................................................................................ 74

How Data Provisioning Adds Value to Weather Data........................................................................ 75

How the experts manage weather data effectively................................................................................. 76

How data provisioning adds value to weather data................................................................................ 77

Ensuring modern data provisioning....................................................................................................... 77

The Non-Meteorologist’s Guide to Weather Data Quality Control................................................... 79