A Primer on Climate

Change Adaptation in the

Philippines

P.A. Jaranilla-Sanchez, R.D. Lasco, G. Villamor, R.V.

Gerpacio , G.P. Nilo and K.L. Villegas
2007

1
A PRIMER ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
IN THE PHILIPPINES

Patricia Ann A. Jaranilla-Sanchez

Rodel D. Lasco
Grace B. Villamor
Roberta V. Gerpacio
Gina P. Nilo
Karl L. Villegas

World Agroforestry Centre

2007

2
The designations employed and the presentation of materials in
this publication do not imply expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the World Agroforestry Centre
(ICRAF), Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization-
Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and
Research in Agriculture (SEAMEO-SEARCA) and the Bureau of
Soils and Water Management (BSWM) but lie solely on the
authors’ views, opinions and review of literature.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any
form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or
otherwise, without permission of the copyright owner.

Correct Citation:

Jaranilla-Sanchez, P.A., Lasco, R.D., Villamor, G.B., Gerpacio, R., Nilo,

G.P. and K.L. Villegas. 2007. A Primer on Climate Change Adaptation in
the Philippines. World Agroforestry Centre, Philippines.

ISBN: 978-971-93153-6-0
Edition: 1st
Language: English

© Copyright 2007 by World Agroforestry Centre

Published by: World Agroforestry Centre

2/f College of Forestry and Natural Resources Administration Building
P.O. Box 35024
University of the Philippines at Los Baños, College, Laguna 4031,
Philippines.
Tel. No. +63 495362925; +63 495362701 local 2860
Fax: +63 495364521
Email: ICRAF-Philippines@cgiar.org
Website: www.worldagroforestrycentre.org

Layout: Patricia Ann J. Sanchez

Photos: Patricia Ann J. Sanchez, Grace Villamor, ICRAF-Database,
BSWM-Database

3
Table of Contents:
Table of Contents: ....................................................................... 4
List of Figures .............................................................................. 5
List of Tables ............................................................................... 5
Preface ........................................................................................ 6
Introduction ................................................................................ 11
What is Climate Change vs. climate variability vs. climate
extremes? .................................................................................. 11
Adaptation vs. Mitigation…Why adaptation? ............................. 12
A changing climate…What has happened in the Philippines so
far? ............................................................................................. 13
What are the projected impacts of climate change to different
sectors? ..................................................................................... 15
Basic Ways and Forms to Adapt to Climate Change ................ 17
Adaptation Strategies in the Philippines: ................................... 19
What role does tropical forest and agroforestry systems have in
climate change adaptation?....................................................... 26
What’s for Now? ........................................................................ 29
Maladaptation: how can we avoid? ........................................... 31
What are some of the knowledge gaps in climate change
adaptation? How can we close this knowledge gap? ................ 33
Literature Cited .......................................................................... 35

4
List of Figures

Figure 1. Structure of the primer................................................. 9

Figure 1. Graphical interpretation of climate change, climate

extremes and climate variability. ............................................... 12

Figure 3. Relative annual-mean sea-level for Manila, South

Harbour, (blue; 1901-1997; 14.58oN, 120.93oE) and (red; 1947-
1997; 13.15oN, 123.75oE) in the Philippines. (Hulme and Sheard,
1999) .......................................................................................... 14

Figure 4. State of the World’s Biodiversity (marine, freshwater,

terrestrial, all invertebrate species)............. Error! Bookmark not
defined.

Figure 5. Bufo periglenes - Its species' extinction has been

attributed to climate. change. (© Charles Smith, US Fish and
Wildlife Service) (http://www.unep-wcmc.org/Climate/, 2007) .. 17

Figure 5. Establishing small water impounding system (SWIP).22

Figure 6. Farmer technologies to adapt during drought periods

(BSWM database). .................................................................... 24

Figure 6. Relationship between adaptation to climate change and

the environmental and social services of forest ecosystems
(Robledo and Fornier 2005) ...................................................... 28

Figure 7. Linking the science, the institutions, the environment

and the communities.................................................................. 34

List of Tables

Acronyms ................................................................................... 10

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Preface

This primer is the second part of the LULUCF Climate Change

Mitigation Projects in the Philippines A Primer. This is in
response to a growing interest on climate change adaptation
after our mitigation primer with emphasis on terrestrial
ecosystems and upland communities. Adaptation to climate
change is defined as a process wherein strategies and actions to
avoid, moderate, cope with and/or take advantage of the
consequences of climate events are developed, enhanced and
implemented. This is different from mitigation in that mitigation of
climate change adds measures to a project or activity through
human/anthropogenic interventions by reducing, preventing or
correcting its impacts (reducing emission or enhancing sinks of
GHGs) (IPCC, 2006). However, adaptation and mitigation
strategies should go hand-in-hand to successfully beat climate
change.

The primer intends to collate all the information on the different

climate change related projects nationwide and make them
available to a wider audience who might be interested in doing
some research work or in implementing some adaptation
strategies in the country.

The status of climate change, climate variability and climate

extremes are discussed in the beginning of the book. Some
questions relevant to the topic are answered in the rest of the
chapters. Case studies on adaptation strategies/measures in the
Philippines or in other countries presented here can be
implemented in the country at the community level or at the
policy level. Adaptation strategies on some sectors of the country
are included. Specifically, this primer focuses on adaptation
strategies for agriculture and forestry, biodiversity conservation,

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soil and water technologies/strategies, farming practices and
adaptation strategies that can improve the resilience of
communities and various sectors in the Philippines are
considered as well. Contingency plans and gaps are identified to
improve existing strategies to enhance adaptation to climate
change in the country.

The content is based on the authors’ review of technical

documents, synthesis of previous case studies, synthesis of
meetings and personal involvement in international negotiation
efforts related to climate change adaptation. The style and
language of this document has been simplified to cater to a wide
range of audiences. A list of helpful websites is also provided for
those who would like supplementary readings on the topic. The
reader is encouraged to use and share this document freely but
judiciously.

Rodel D. Lasco
Country Program Coordinator
World Agroforestry Centre

7
Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF-

Philippines), Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR),
Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization-Southeast
Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in
Agriculture (SEAMEO-SEARCA) and the Bureau of Soils and
Water Management (BSWM) for all the technical contributions in
coming up with this publication.

We would also like to acknowledge the administrative staff of the

ICRAF who painstakingly took care of all the printing and
financial arrangements for this publication.

8
 Introduction

Climate Change

Climate Climate
Extremes Variability

Impacts and Vulnerability of the

Philippines

Adaptation Strategies/Projects in the

Philippines

Figure 1. Structure of the primer

9
Acronyms
APF Adaptation Policy Framework

AICCC ????
BSWM Bureau of Soils and Water Management
CA Conservation Agriculture
CBD Conventions on Biological Diversity
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CIFOR Center for International Forestry Research
COP Conference of Parties
DENR Department of Environment and Natural
Resources
GLOSS Global Sea Level Observing System
ICRAF World Agroforestry Centre (formerly
International Center for Research in
Agroforestry)
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NWFP Non-wood forest products
PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
PCARRD Department of Science and Technology-
Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry
and Natural Resources Research and
Development

SEAMEO- Southeast Asian Ministers of Education

SEARCA Organization-Southeast Asian Regional
Center for Graduate Study and Research in
Agriculture
UGAT Ugnayang Pang-Aghamtao Foundation, Inc.
UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
PAWB Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau
DENR Department of Environment and Natural
Resources

10
Introduction
The Philippines is one of the developing countries expected to
suffer most of the negative effects of climate change. It is already
known to most of us that climate change is happening. As
climate changes, developing countries like the Philippines are
faced with urgent needs for sustainable development: These are:
1.) to improve food security, 2.) to reduce poverty, and 3.) to
provide an adequate standard of living for growing populations
(Verchot, et al., 2007). In the previous primer, mitigation
strategies were discussed but these are only expected to
cushion the effects of climate change. Adaptation efforts are
needed to improve the resilience of the community to the
impacts of climate change, climate variability or climate
extremes.

What is Climate Change vs. climate variability vs. climate

extremes?
Climate change is any change in climate over time (usually
hundreds of years), whether due to natural variability or because
of human activity. This is usually long term and requires decades
or more of statistically significant changes in climate at the global
level. Climate variability is the variations in the mean state and
other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales
beyond that of individual weather events. Climate variability is
generally short term and abrupt climate variations. Climate
extremes are short-term extreme climatic conditions such as the
occurrence of El Niño and La Niña in the country.

Figure 1 shows a graphical representation of the difference

between climate variability, climate extremes and climate
change. This figure is similar to the graphical representation of
Smit et al. (2000) as shown by Robledo and Fornier (2005) for
climate change and climate variability. Evidences of climate
change are shown in the LULUCF primer on climate change
mitigation projects in the Philippines (see Section 2: What’s
wrong with our climate?).

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 40

38 Climate
Climate extreme
variability
36

34

temp eratu re, Celsiu s

32

30

28

26

24

22 Climate
20
change
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
years

Figure 1. Graphical interpretation of climate change, climate

extremes and climate variability.
*Legend: red trendline (climate change); yellow points (climate extremes); blue
and yellow points (in blue line) (climate variability)

Adaptation vs. Mitigation…Why adaptation?

Mitigation strategies are usually measures added to a project or
activity to reduce, prevent or correct the impact of climate
change. These are anthropogenic intervention to reduce the
emission or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG).
Adaptation on the other hand, is a process by which strategies
and actions to avoid, moderate, cope with and/or take advantage
of the consequences of climate events are developed, enhanced
and implemented.

Both mitigation and adaptation are urgently needed if we want to

reduce climate change and its impacts over the coming decades.
Although there are quite a number of mitigation projects
implemented in the country, we can only do so much to reduce
the impact of climate change, variability and extremes. Limited
focus is given to mutually supportive adaptation strategies
necessary to increase the resilience of local communities
vulnerable to these climate changes, variability and extremes.
This can be done side-by-side with mitigation strategies to

12
minimize further impact on the most vulnerable populations and
ecosystems.

Adaptation strategies are very cost effective compared to

mitigation and can be done from the policy level down to the
grassroots level.

There are plenty of adaptation measures both natural and

human-induced. This publication will focus on human-induced
adaptation measures.

A changing climate…What has happened in the Philippines

so far?
The IPCC (2001) projects under various scenarios that in the
next 100 years, global mean surface temperatures will increase
by 1.4-5.8oC and the global mean sea level will rise by 0.09-
0.88m.

The Philippines all in all has not only become warmer in the last
few decades but it has also become drier (6% decline in rainfall
for the past century). Data from 1961-1999 shows that the
Philippines experience an average of 2325 mm of rainfall and
25.7oC of annual mean temperature (Figure 2).

The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), which

routinely monitors in several hundreds of locations including
Manila and Legaspi shows how the sea levels have been rapidly
rising throughout the years (Figure 3). This is very alarming
because there are a lot of coastal towns with livelihoods
dependent on the surrounding water bodies. Submergence of
small islands located just a little above sea level might occur if
this sea level rise continues.

13
Figure 2. Changes in annual-mean temperature, 1901-1998,
and annual precipitation, 1901-1998 (bottom), over the
Philippines. (Changes from the average 1961-1990 climate
values of 25.7oC and 2325 mm) (Hulme and Sheard, 1999).

Figure 3. Relative annual-mean sea-level for Manila, South

Harbour, (blue; 1901-1997; 14.58oN, 120.93oE) and (red; 1947-
1997; 13.15oN, 123.75oE) in the Philippines. (Hulme and Sheard,
1999)

14
What are the projected impacts of climate change to
different sectors?

Agriculture
The increasing extreme weather events brought about by climate
change have huge impacts on agriculture.

a) Crops
IPCC (2001) notes that climatic variability and change will affect
scheduling of cropping season, as well as the duration of the
growing period of the crop. Crop yield of some crops are
expected to decline. Acute water shortages combined with
thermal stress should adversely affect rice productivity despite
the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future. Crop diseases
such as rice blast, and sheath and culm blight of rice also could
become more widespread.

The increased incidence of pests and diseases such as the

Black bug (for rice), Waya-waya (for corn), the incidence of
Bunchy top (usually in Abaca but now affecting corn also),
Caragumoy bleaching of their primary crop for basket weaving
(as a result of increasing surface temperature) were noted by the
the Provincial Agriculture Office of Albay. (Personal
Communication with the provincial agricultural specialist: Jojo
Elvira, 2007).

b) Livestock
The IPCC WGII (2007) identifies some increase in incidence of
diseases due to global warming that will affect livestock in the
mid-latitude areas like the Philippines. For example, the
bluetongue disease that mostly affects sheep, goat and deer is
projected to spread from the tropical countries to the mid-latitude
areas (Anon, 2006, van Wuijickhuise et al., 2006). Studies are
still lacking on the impacts of CO2 and climate change on the
pest-plant dynamics or impacts on livestock health. (IPCC WGII,
2007)

c) Fisheries/coastal

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According to the IPCC (2001), the coastal ecosystems are highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia.
Many wild stocks are under stress as a result of over
exploitation, trawling on sea-bottom habitats, coastal
development, and pollution from land-based activities. Marine
productivity is greatly affected by plankton shift in response to
temperature changes induced by ENSO. The coastline is
routinely lashed by storm surges and cyclones so sediment load
is added to the coastal waters.

Forestry
Vulnerability analysis of forest ecosystems in the Philippine’s
Initial National Communications (1999) explains how both the
quantity and quality of forest goods and services can significantly
be affected by climate.

Forest clearing for conversion to cropland and pasture are the

primary reason for forest loss. This can be aggravated with
increased flood and droughts brought about by climate change.
All these will have severe effects to the environment such as
increased soil erosion, loss of soil fertility, loss of genetic
variability in crops, and depletion of water resources. (IPCC,
2001)

Changes in the flowering of trees, production of seeds,

palatability to herbivores, etc. as a result of climate change can
… (some more impacts).

Moreover, IPCC projects that climate change is likely to

exacerbate pest, disease and weed management problems
particularly in plantation and production forest. Forests such as
pine forest are vulnerable to fire and climate change induced
increases in fire risk.

Biodiversity
The impacts of climate
change on biodiversity are
increasing at an alarming
rate. Climate change together
with land use change and the
“Biodiversity is a term used for a
variety of life on earth, provides
through its expression as
ecosystems, goods and services
that sustain our lives” (CBD, 2007).

16
spread of exotic/alien species will most likely limit the capacity of
species to migrate promoting loss of some species. At the
species level, climate change affects biodiversity by 1.)
Changing species distribution; 2.) Increasing extinction rates; 3.)
Changing reproduction timings and; 4.) Changing the length of
growing seasons for plants. (CBD, 2007)

Figure 5. Bufo periglenes - Its

species' extinction has been attributed
to climate. change. (© Charles Smith, US
Fish and Wildlife Service) (http://www.unep-
wcmc.org/Climate/, 2007)
Loss of biodiversity is increasing as
climate change accelerates (Figure 4).
The climate change already has
affected biodiversity in the Philippines especially in the shifting of
species distribution affecting the protected area system of the
country.

Basic Ways and Forms to Adapt to Climate Change

The Philippine Initial National Communication on Climate
Change (1999) notes that adaptation measures to climate
change can be screened by the following: 1.) addressing high
priority issues involving irreversible catastrophic consequences
of climate change, long term decisions and unfavorable trends;
2.) determining if it’s effective; 3.) low cost (inexpensive); 4.)
feasibility and must not have significant barriers to overcome
(institutional/legal, social and cultural, market and technological).

There are some fundamental forms of adaptation given by

McCarl (2007) that can be applicable in the Philippines setting.

 Crop, forage, and tree species/varieties -

adaptation by altering the mix of crop, forage grasses or
trees species employed. For example: growing crops,
grasses or trees which are more heat tolerant. More
generally this involves replacing some proportion of the
crop, forage and tree species populating the land with
alternative species that perform more suitably in the face

17
 of altered climatic regime. Typically this involves
adopting practices from areas that have historically
exhibited comparable climates. Adaptation can also
involve adoption of alternative varieties of the same
crops or trees that are more suitable in the face of the
altered climate due to for example lower water needs,
increased resistance to pests and diseases etc.

 Crop and tree management - Modifying cropping

schedules by planting or harvesting earlier to adjust to
altered soil warm-up rates, soil moisture conditions,
earlier maturity dates, altered water availability regimes.
Trees and crops can be managed by increasing inputs,
altering rotation ages, thinning (to mitigate fire risk),
replanting, or altered pest management among other
possibilities. Producers may also use seasonal climate
forecasting to reduce production risk.

 Water Management - Adaptation may be through the

provision of irrigation water including investing in
facilities, changing drainage management regimes,
altering tillage practices to conserve water, modifying
farm schedules (time of planting/harvesting) to better
match water availability, changing crop species to more
drought tolerant plants/trees etc.

 Pest and disease management –Adaptation can

occur through wider use of integrated pest and pathogen
management or preventive veterinary care, development
and use of varieties and species resistant to pests and
diseases, maintaining or improving quarantine
capabilities, outbreak monitoring programs; prescribed
burning and adjusting harvesting schedules.

 Management of natural areas - Some forestry

production occurs relies on passively managed, natural
ecosystems which may require more active
management under climate change to migrate in new
better adapted species or deal with climate change
enhanced pest, disease or fire risks.

18
  Fire management - Forests, grasslands and to some
extent croplands are vulnerable to fire and climate
change induced increases in fire risk. Such risks may
stimulate adaptive actions like salvaging dead timber,
landscape planning to minimize fire damage, and
adjusting fire management systems.

 Land use or enterprise choice change - Climate

change may alter the suitability of land or a region to
such an extent that certain enterprises are no longer
sustainable and that it may be desirable to adapt by
changing the land use from crops to pasture or trees,
trees to grazing land.

Adaptation Strategies in the Philippines:

Recommendations from the Philippine Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (MA) Sub-global Assessment (Lasco, et al., 2005)
recommends a variety of adaptation options to the perceived
impacts of climate change on Philippine agriculture.
 Development of stress-tolerant varieties through plant
breeding and biotechnology
 Development of new farm management techniques that will
respond to the management of crops under stressful
conditions and the management of plant pests and diseases;
 Adaptive design and development of efficient farm tools and
implements; and
 Improvement of post harvest technologies which include
among others the utilization and processing of farm
products, by products and agricultural wastes
 Further recommended is the design and installation of a
management information system (MIS) for agriculture which
would provide timely and accurate information on climate
hazards and their likely impacts to agricultural activities. MIS
must be able to provide the following:
o Nature of climate variability particularly rainfall
o Effects of climate change on other physical
processes (e.g. soil erosion, pests, etc.;

19
 o Effects of crop yields from farm production, food
pricing and supply, farm income and
o Effective policy response to changes in land
use, plant breeding, etc.

Water Resources
There are many water resources adaptation measures currently
available in the country that enable it to respond to climate
change impacts on water supply and demand. Some limitations
to the adoption of the adaptation measures include financial and
socio-cultural factors (social and cultural behavior or traditions).

Some possible adaptation measures in both short term and long

term for the country’s water sector are identified as follows:

Adaptation measures on the supply side:

1.) Comprehensive watershed management (Jose and
Cruz, 1999);
2.) Water allocation system and procedures (Jose and Cruz,
1999);
3.) Construction of new infrastructures (Philippines’ Initial
National Communication to Climate Change, 1999);
4.) Modification of existing physical infrastructure
(Philippines’ Initial National Communication to Climate
Change, 1999);
5.) Alternative management of the existing water supply
systems (Philippines’ Initial National Communication to
Climate Change, 1999);
6.) Planned and coordinated use of water
basin/groundwater resources (Philippines’ Initial National
Communication to Climate Change, 1999);
7.) Improved monitoring and forecasting systems for flood
and drought and water quality (Philippines’ Initial
National Communication to Climate Change, 1999)

Adaptation measures on the demand side:

1.) Enhancement of irrigation efficiency (Jose and Cruz,
1999);
2.) Introduction of low water use crops and efficient farming
practices (Jose and Cruz, 1999);

20
 3.) Recycling (reuse) of water (Jose and Cruz, 1999);
4.) Improvement of monitoring and forecasting systems for
floods and droughts (Jose and Cruz, 1999);
5.) Use of water pricing policies and structures; policies and
long-term development plans to incorporate potential
impacts to climate change (Jose and Cruz, 1999);
6.) Conservation and improved efficiency (Philippines’ Initial
National Communication to Climate Change, 1999);
7.) Technological Change (Philippines’ Initial National
Communication to Climate Change, 1999);
8.) Treated and Untreated water supply/pricing (Philippines’
Initial National Communication to Climate Change,
1999);
9.) Water treatment and recycling for major users
(Philippines’ Initial National Communication to Climate
Change, 1999);
10.) Introduce low water use crops and farming practices
(Philippines’ Initial National Communication to Climate
Change, 1999)

Agriculture
Currently, there are flood control and drainage programs by the
government. For example, the BSWM has been training farmers
to operate and maintain the Small Water Impounding
Management (SWIM) projects that will be turned over to them.
There are about 25 sub-projects covered by this arrangement.
(MTPDP, 2001)

The BSWM is spearheading a very pro-active program on

“Combating desertification, land degradation, drought and
poverty.” The emerging climate phenomenon attributed to the
increasing recurrence cycle of El Niño, seasonal aridity or
seasonal extreme dryness in the Philippines was accepted in the
Convention in Combating Desertification (CCD) and was
considered as the primary basis for the acknowledgement of
desertification in the tropical countries.

Current National Programs:

 Agri-Kalikasan – Department of Agriculture’s (DA)
strategic program in preventing loss of soil fertility and restoring

21
soil quality. Component activities include: Modified Rapid
Composting (MRC) and Tipid Abono Program.

 Establishment of Small Water Impounding Systems

(SWIS) such as small water impounding project (SWIP),
diversion dam, shallow tube well (STW), small farm reservoir
(SFR)

 Promotion of Soil and Water Conservation.

 Promotion of modified technologies to enhance local
farmers participation in organic farming.
 International Collaborative Project such as:
1. Community-based Watershed Management
Project
2. Australian Center for International Agricultural
Research (ACIAR) - Bohol project
3. ACIAR - Ilocos Project

Figure 5. Establishing small water impounding system (SWIP).

Forestry
For watershed management, a case study by AIACC in the
Pantabangan-Caranglan watershed listed some adaptation
practices commonly done by rice farmers in the area during
droughts and during floods. For drought, the use of shallow tube
wells, planting of new varieties, rotation method of irrigation,
direct seeding method (this requires less water), use alternative
sources of water (from rivers), are some of the common

22
responses of the farmers. For flood, switching to crops that can
sustain floods and heavy rainfall, livelihood diversification (swine
production, vegetable farming, canton making, fruit juice
making), use of solar dryers and of course, attending seminars
and trainings on new technologies and farming techniques
(increasing community adaptation capacity). (Cruz, et al., 2005)

Biodiversity
The Department of Environment and Natural resources
Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (DENR-PAWB) in
cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme
Global Environment Facility (UNDP) is trying to implement the
Convention on Biological Diversity in the Philippines.

Improving plant cultivars to resist the effects of drought can do

adaptation at genetic level.

In a positive example, the restoration of mangrove forests to

increase coastal protection provides a habitat for aquatic and
arboreal species.

More dynamic approaches to biodiversity management will be

required with a changing climate modeled using future scenarios.
This may include ecosystem management for enhanced
resilience to climate change. Good governance, new research on
combined approaches on protected areas, ecological networks,
and landscape management is needed for adaptation and
mitigation against climate change using biodiversity
management, ecosystem management and good governance.

Farmers’ initiatives and Indigenous Strategies in the

Philippines

The IPCC recommends adaptation measures to reduce the

negative effects of climatic variability by changing cropping
calendar to take advantage of the wet period and to avoid
extreme weather events (typhoons and strong winds) during the
growing season.

23
Application of farmers’ appropriate technologies and indigenous
knowledge enabling them to adapt during drought incidences:
 Use of herbal pesticide/botanical spray to control drought-
induced diseases and pests thriving in trees/plants;
 Weeding is not done during El Niño to conserve water;
 Muyung of Ifugao, which combines the under planting of
annual and perennial crops in a secondary forest;
 Irrigation is done when there is no wind to preserve moisture
(water easily evaporates in the presence of wind during dry
season)

Figure 6. Farmer technologies to adapt during drought periods

(BSWM database).

Indigenous disaster management practices or disaster

countermeasures were compiled in different projects funded by
PCARRD and collaborated by PHIVOLCS, PAGASA and UGAT
in the Natural Disaster Management Among Filipino Cultural
Communities.
 Typhoon and flood forecasting techniques of:
- the Ivatans and Cordillerans based on sky and
cloud appearance, plant manifestations, and
unusual animal behavior,
- the Manobo and Subanen methods of using the
stars and constellations to forecast heavy rains
and droughts

24
 Drought forecasting techniques of the Bagobos and
Mandayas
 Monitoring of precursory signs of volcanic unrest by the
T’bolis and identification of escape routes in case of eruption
 The construction of emergency shelters such as the ayob or
kubol of the Mangyan, the kurob of the Mamanua, the
ayungan of the Manobo, and the tambubong of the Mandaya
 Preservation and stockpiling of food, fuel and indigenous
medicine in preparation for typhoons and floods
 Early warning systems using indigenous devices such as:
o the taguyods of the Yakans
o the agong, gimbae, kuratong and budiong of the
Manobos
o the color-coded flag signals of the Aetas.
 Custom of collective self-help or bayanihan in responding to
disasters and in carrying out recovery activities (common in
all the groups studied) though called by many names:
o yaru among the Ivatans
o ugbu among the Cordillerans
o tawang-tawang among the Tausug, Samal and
Yakan.
 The drought coping mechanisms of the Bagobo and T’boli
 The Aetas community and agricultural rehabilitation after the
Pinatubo Volcano 1991 eruption and ensuing lahars.
 The clever way of selecting safe sites for settlements and
houses to ensure that these are protected from strong winds,
above the reach of floodwaters and away from landslide
prone areas. Notable among the Ivatans, Cordillerans,
Mangyans and Manobos.
 To prevent/minimize landslide and soil erosion:
o the rice terraces of the cordillerans
o the hedgerows planted by Ivatans along hillsides
 Tree belts to protect crops and houses of Ivatans from
strong winds
 The adaptive agricultural cycle and cropping systems of the
Ivatan, Cordilleran, and Subanen
 Typhoon- and earthquake- resistant houses
o the jinjins of the Ivatans
o the binangiyan of the Cordilleran

25
 Rip rap:
o the rip rap build by Igorots and Ivatans along
river banks to prevent water from overflowing to
their farms and settlements, and on the slopes
to prevent erosion.
o The Tausugs living on the seashore also have
rip raps along their property line for protection
against soil erosion due to wave action.

What role does tropical forest and agroforestry systems

have in climate change adaptation?

Tropical Forest Adaptation

Vulnerability analysis of forest ecosystems in the Philippine’s
Initial National Communications (1999) explains how both the
quantity and quality of forest goods and services can significantly
be affected by climate. Because of this, some environmental
services of forest ecosystems such as water cycle regulation or
soil stability can directly contribute to increasing resilience.
Adaptation strategies should include forest goods (e.g. timber,
fuelwood, and NWFPs), agroforestry, forest services and
governance. Figure 6 shows the relationship of adaptation to
climate change and the environmental and social services of
forest ecosystems.

Agroforestry as an adaptation measure

Agroforestry has a very important role in climate change
adaptation especially in small-holder farming communities.
Farmer management can play a large role in adaptation,
although, different agroforestry systems vary in the way they
sustain the farmer’s agility to respond to external pressures,
stresses and fluctuations (this is the concept of “sustainagility”)
(Verchot, et al., 2007).

The increased inter-annual variability in rainfall and temperature

will greatly affect farmers. Agroforestry offers a means for
diversifying production systems and increasing the sustainagility

26
of small-holder farming systems against climate change (wetter
and drier years) because tree based systems have the following:
a.) the deep root systems are able to explore a larger soil
volume for water and nutrients (very helpful during
droughts);
b.) increased soil porosity, reduced runoff and increased
soil cover lead to increased water infiltration and
retention in the soil profile which can reduce moisture
stress during low rainfall years;
c.) higher evapotranspiration rates than row crops or
pastures and can thus maintain aerated soil conditions
by pumping excess water out of the soil profile more
rapidly than other production systems; and
d.) often produce crops of higher value than row crops.

Thus, diversifying the production system to include a significant

tree component may buffer against income risks associated with
climate variability. In addition to all these advantages,
agroforestry management systems offer opportunities for
creating synergies between mitigation and adaptation strategies.
The sustainagility framework for national planning aims to reduce
vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change. This will
aid in “mainstreaming” adaptation into the planning processes.
(Verchot, et al., 2007)

27
Figure 6. Relationship between adaptation to climate change and the environmental and social services of forest
ecosystems (Robledo and Fornier 2005)

28
What’s for Now?
Up until recently, climate change has been viewed as an
environmental problem separate from the concerns of
development policy-makers. In the same manner, development
approaches have been given little attention by the climate
change community who prefer natural sciences approaches (e.g.
CDM) in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change
will affect national development especially in poor countries like
the Philippines therefore; alternative development pathways will
determine the future greenhouse gas emissions and influence
the capacity of communities and countries to adapt to climate
change. (Huq, et al., 2006)

Adaptation to climate needs to be mainstreamed into policy

development. Climate change awareness is very high among
government institutions. There are several adaptation efforts in
different institutions that are either planned or ongoing in the
country. At the policy level, there are a few policies that aim to
mainstream climate change adaptation into the government
programs. The very first one is the AO 220 issued May 8, 1991
creating the IACCC Inter-agency committee on climate change.
Recent events promoted the creation of more policies such as
the AO 171

Among the on-going research on climate change adaptation are:

The World Agroforestry Centre has started with some small
projects on climate change adaptation. TroFCCA (Tropical
Forest and Climate Change Adaptation project) is afour year
project in collaboration with CIFOR, CATIE and

-ACCCA

-APN (Asia Pacific network)

-collaborative work with SEARCA

One of the adaptation efforts of the national government is thru
the different projects of the Bureau of Soils and Water
Management (BSWM).

In the country, majority of the upland areas are inhabited by

farming communities who are among the poorest of the poor.
These communities often benefit least from assistance coming
from government and private institutions who aim to alleviate
poverty among the upland communities. With minimal outside
assistance, these upland communities in the uplands are prone
to climate-induced risks such as landslides (soil erosion),
droughts, heavy rains, typhoons (tropical cyclones) and other
calamities.

These natural disasters increase the vulnerability of the area to

climate variability and change especially since the upland areas
are usually not easily accessible for the delivery of
assistance/services,

One of the projects of the World Agroforestry Centre is the

Landcare approach. This has already started with the education
of upland communities on how to combat some natural disasters
in the areas of Lantapan Bukidnon, Claveria, Misamis Oriental,
Bohol, Cebu and some portions of Davao del Sur. Not only can
appropriate agroforestry technologies increase the resilience of
these farming communities against climate-induced hazards by
utilizing proper soil and water conservation practices and
agroforestry technologies, but also protect the means of
livelihood of these farmers.

Insufficient/lacking adaptative capacity is a major obstruction in

mainstreaming climate change and sustainable development
especially in developing countries like the Philippines. Capacity
building and proper implementation of policies and agreements
(both national and international) will enable the country to
develop strategies from the farmer level up to the policy level.

30
Maladaptation: how can we avoid?
Most of the environmental policies that have been, or are being,
implemented in the country are all geared towards environmental
protection against climate extremes and climate variability that
will in the long run be towards protecting us all against climate
change. We must admit that these policies still need to be
mainstreamed or given direction to cover more long term
activities that will help the country adapt to and mitigate climate
change. However, there have been some apprehensions as to
possible policies that may in fact have negative adaptation
(maladaptation), reduce resilience and increase vulnerability
among the different communities in the country.

Republic Act 7279 Urban Development and Housing Act of 1992

(more popularly known as the “Lina Law”) promotes squatting in
the country; increasing the vulnerability of the nation’s poorest of
the poor to typhoons, floods and illnesses in both urban and rural
areas. Illegal settlers are more difficult to remove from either
government and private lands because Article 6, Section 28
states that “Financial Assistance in the amount equivalent to the
prevailing daily minimum wage multiplied by 60 days shall be
extended to the affected families by the local government unit
concerned.” Several Executive orders followed thru such as EO
129 (1993), EO 178 (1999), EO 152 and EO 153 that tried to
wage the national campaign to suppress and eradicate
professional squatting and squatting syndicates however,
because of the RA 7279, it has made demolishing illegal
structures less prone to immediate demolition hence, more
settlers (professional squatters, squatting syndicates, and rural
folks) move in to congested areas to take advantage of this.
However, this can increase poverty (they leave their farms and
relocate to urban areas where their skills cannot compete in the
industrial areas), promote solid waste (garbage disposal is a
problem) and liquid waste pollution by degrading rivers and
streams (if they squat around water bodies, their garbage and
waste materials go to the rivers and streams)
http://www.manilatimes.net/others/special/2004/oct/12/20041012
spe1.html

31
Aside from a few of the policies mentioned, most of the policies
directly related to the environment are actually towards reducing
environmental risks. Maladaptation is actually just part of the
problem; the real problem related to policies is the “mal-
implementation”. Government policies, programs and activities
on natural resource and ecosystems management can positively
or negatively impact vulnerability and adaptation to climate
change, mainly depending on how they are implemented or put
into action, and on how the respective manners of
implementation were monitored and/or regulated, if at all.
Needless to say, problems arise when the policies are not
properly implemented.

The socio-economic aspects of climate change can be gleaned

both at the latter’s “cause” and “effect” sides. The world’s leading
climate scientists recently reported that climate change is “very
likely” (more than 90 percent certain) caused by man, mainly
through changes in the atmospheric composition due to fossil
fuel burning, and changes in land use, interfering with the
balance of GHGs.

Meanwhile on the “effect” side, the socio-economic aspects of

climate change can be seen mainly from (its impacts on)
livelihood, food availability, health condition and water supply,
either at the household or at the community level. A socio-
economic vulnerability index based on pre-identified indicators
can be developed to better understand the nature of human
vulnerability to climate change and extremes. These indicators
can include, among others: a) demographic factors (age, gender,
ethnicity, education, household size, migration); b)
socioeconomic factors (income, household assets, expenditures,
land ownership, farm size, farm practices, membership in
organizations, access to transportation, credit and information);
c) geographic concerns (distance to market); and d) number of
coping mechanisms (see Lasco, et al (2006) for details).

Lastly, at a more macro level, the socio-economic aspects of

climate change can refer to the overall policy and governance
environment, whose impact in turn trickle down to the other

32
components already being affected by climate change, variability
and risks.

What are some of the knowledge gaps in climate change

adaptation? How can we close this knowledge gap?

There is still so much to do when it comes to knowledge gaps in

climate change adaptation. The main challenge is to
systematically bridge the communities, local and international
institutions, and the environment with the adaptation process.

Effective communication through information dissemination is

needed to bridge the knowledge gaps in climate change
adaptation.

Communities

Institutions
Science

Environment

33
Figure 7. Linking the science, the institutions, the environment
and the communities.

Information availability and dissemination is very important to

improve the scientific capacity of the scientific community
(research institutions, government agencies and policy makers);
enhance monitoring systems and develop early warning
systems; and promote a mechanism or tools to translate
available information for policy makers to decide on
policies/strategies that will enable the Philippines to adapt better
to a changing climate.

With or without climate change, different sectors in the

Philippines are quite vulnerable to environmental disasters. In
the Philippines, adaptation to climate variability and extremes are
already somewhat in place. However, some necessary
adjustments to changing conditions still need to be made in the
infrastructure, management practices, institutional arrangements
and policies. Climate change is generally not considered in the
planning of adaptation strategies. Enhancements in the policy
framework are needed to include steps to reduce this
vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity of the country. The
water resources policy framework in the country can help in
adapting to climate change but it can still be improved to
accommodate adaptation strategies for long-term planning to
include climate change. There is a need to document adaptation
strategies on the ground and how it has affected the
communities affected by changes in climate.

When we talk of climate change, sustainable development,

adaptation, mitigation and biodiversity, several issues crop up.
These issues should be communicated to all sectors of society
with these 3 simple messages: 1.) Climate change is happening;
2.) Adaptation is necessary for the communities to cope with
climate changes 3.) Mitigation is essential to avoid the dangers
of climate change.

34
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Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brander, L. Erda, S.M.

Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.-F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber and F.N.
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bin/baseportal.pl?htx=/miso/floodprone (Accessed July 2007).

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Jabines, A. and J. Inventor (2007) The Philippines: A Climate Hotspot. Climate
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Jacobs, K., Adams, D.B., and P. Gleick, (2000). Potential Consequences of

Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources in the United States,
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Kho, J. and E. Agsoay-Saño. (2007). Country Study on Customary Laws and

Practices.
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Lasco, R.D., Espaldon, V.O. and M. Tapia (eds). (2005) Ecosystems and People.
The Philippine Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) Sub-global Assessment.
College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines at Los
Baños. ISBN 971-547-237-0.

Levina, E. and H. Adams (eds.) (2006). Domestic Policy Frameworks for

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector. Part I: Annex I Countries.
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Manton, M.J., Della-Marta, P.M., Haylock, M.R., Hennessy, K.J., Nicholls, N.,
Chambers, L.E., Collins, D.A., Daw, G., Finet, A., Gunawan, D., Inape, K., Isobe,
H., Kestin, T.S., Lefale, P., Leyu, C.H., Lwin, T., Maitrepierre, L., Ouprasitwong,
N., Page, C.M., Pahalad, J., Plummer, N., Salinger, M.J., Suppiah, R., Tran, V.L.,
Trewin, B., Tibig, I., and D. Yee. 2001. Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall and
Temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998. International
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McCarl, B.A. 2007. Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. A
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Philippines.pdf

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for watershed management and development in the Philippines. Los Baños,
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(Accessed Nov. 7, 2007).
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Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L.
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Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22.

Trexler, M.C. and C. Haugen. 1995. Keeping it Green: Evaluating Tropical Forest
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Robledo, C. and C. Fornier. 2005.Forests and Climate Change Working Paper 2.

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Turner, B.L.II, Kasperson, R.E., Matson, P.A., McCarthy, J.A. Corell, R.W.,
Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luers, A., Martello, M.L., Polsky, C.,
Pulsipher, A. and A. Schiller (2003). A framework for vulnerability analysis in
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van Wuijckhuise, L., D. Dercksen, J. Muskens, J. de Bruyn, M. Scheepers and

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Mackensen, J., Bantilan, C., Anupama, K.V. and C. Palm 2007. Mitig Adapt Strat
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37
Glossary of Terms

Adaptation
A process where strategies and actions to avoid, moderate, cope with
and/or take advantage of the consequences of climate events are
developed, enhanced and implemented.

Adaptation baseline
Includes a description of existing adaptations to the current climate
change

Adaptation Strategy
A broad plan of action that is implemented through policies and
measures and whose objective is to reduce the vulnerability of society.
Strategies can be comprehensive (i.e. focusing on national, cross-
sectorial scales) or targeted (i.e. focusing on specific sectors, regions or
measures).

Adaptation Action
A planned activity developed and implemented on the ground with the
objective of moderating, coping or taking advantage of a specific climate
change impact. Adaptation actions include those designed to cope with
an impact, share or compensate any loss, modify the circumstances of
the system to prevent an impact, search for alternatives, change the
location of a given system/activity, or research, educate and create
awareness.

Adaptation Policy
The explicit intention of a government to enhance the capacity of society
to respond to climate change by, interalia, setting national objectives,
identifying and delegating responsibilities, enabling the building of
capacity and identifying and distributing resources for the assessment of
vulnerability and the design and implementation of adaptation actions.
Policies typically refer to instruments that government can use to
change economic and other behaviors. Policies are usually composed
of taxes, command-and-control regulations (e.g. performance
specifications for technologies), market mechanisms such as trading
schemes, incentives such as subsidies for new management
techniques, and information gathering (e.g. on the likely impacts of
climate change) or dissemination (e.g. on the merits of new
technologies or behavior changes).

Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)

A structured process for developing adaptation strategies, developing
adaptation strategies, policies and measures to enhance and ensure

38
human development in the face of climate change, including climate
variability. APF is designed to link climate change adaptation to
sustainable development and other global environmental issues. It
consists of five basic components: project scope and design, assessing
current vulnerability, characterizing future climate risks, developing an
adaptation strategy, and continuing the adaptation process.

Adaptive Capacity
The potential or capability of a system to adjust, via changes in its
characteristics or behavior, in order to cope better with existing climate
variability and change. It is possible to differentiate between adaptive
potential, which is a theoretical upper boundary of responses based on
global expertise and anticipated developments within the planning
horizon of the assessment, and adaptive capacity, which is constrained
by the existing information, technology and resources of the system
under consideration

Adaptive Management
The act, manner, or practice of managing, handling, or controlling a
specific system in a way in which its adaptive capacity is increased.
Adaptive management is achieved by the implementation of adaptation
actions.

Baseline (also called project baseline)

A description of current conditions, including existing or needed information
on socio-economic conditions, climate risks and hazards, and known system
vulnerabilities and adaptations. See also Vulnerability baseline and Adaptation
baseline.

Biodiversity
Biodiversity is a contraction of biological diversity. Biodiversity reflects the
number, variety and variability of living organisms. It includes diversity within
species (genetic diversity), between species (species diversity), and between
ecosystems (ecosystem diversity).

Climate
The average condition experienced across a specific set of variables like
temperature, salinity, precipitation, ocean currents and wind.

Climate Change
Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or because
of human activity.

Climate Change Vulnerability

39
The degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
See also vulnerability

Climate Variability
Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations,
the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial
scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may result from
natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability) or
from variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external
variability).

Climate-related Risk
The result of the interaction of physically defined hazards with the properties of
the exposed systems – i.e. the systems’ sensitivity or (social) vulnerability. Risk
can also be considered as the combination of an event, its likelihood and its
consequences – i.e. risk equals the probability of climate hazard multiplied by a
given system’s vulnerability.

Convention
In legal terms, a convention is a group of contracts, treaties, pacts or
agreements parties. Conventions arise from the recognition that a problem
exists and that there is a need to unify the efforts to solve it. They specify the
tasks and commitments that are required to achieve a specific objective.
Examples of conventions related to environmental issues include the Basel
Convention on Toxic Waste, the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD), and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

Coping range
The range of climate where outcomes are beneficial or negative but tolerable;
damages or losses beyond the coping range are no longer tolerable, and a
society is said to be vulnerable.

Desertification
The (UNCCD) defines desertification as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and
sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations
and human activities.

Development Topics
In the context of TroFCCA, development topics are sectorial development
goals for which forests play a substantial role by providing goods and services,
including alternatives for enhanced adaptive capacity, and for which climate
change and climate variability increased the vulnerability of these goals
specifically by affecting the provision of goods and services from forests.

40
Drivers (of ecosystem change)
Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change
in an ecosystem.

Ecosystem(s)
An ecological unit made up of a complex system of interactions between living
communities (plants, animal, fungi, and microorganisms) and the environment
they live in. Ecosystems have no fixed boundaries; a single lake, a watershed,
or an entire region could be considered an ecosystem.

Ecosystem services
The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning
services such as food and water; regulating services such as flood and disease
control; cultural services such as spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits;
and supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the conditions for
life on Earth.

Evaluation
A process for determining systematically and objectively the relevance,
efficiency, effectiveness and impact of adaptation strategies in the light of their
objectives.

Habitat change
Change in the local environmental conditions in which a particular organism
lives. Habitat change can occur naturally through droughts, disease, fire,
hurricanes, mudslides, volcanoes, earthquakes, slight increases or decreases in
seasonal temperature or precipitation, etc. However, it is generally induced by
human activities such as land use change and physical modification of rivers or
water withdrawal from rivers.

Hazard
A physically defined climate event with the potential to cause harm, such as
heavy rainfall events, drought, floods, storms, and long-term changes in mean
climate variables such as temperature.

Hybrid
A physically defined climate event with the potential to cause harm, such as
heavy rainfall events, droughts, floods storms and long-term changes in mean
climate variable such as temperature.

Land cover
The physical coverage of land, usually expressed in terms of vegetation cover
or lack of it. The human use of a piece of land for a certain purpose (such as
irrigated agriculture or recreation) influences land cover.

41
Policy Oriented Strategies
A broad plan for adaptation which focuses primarily on institutional
development. Policy oriented strategies include elements of capacity building,
finance, technical assistance, dissemination of information, cooperation and
others.

Probability
Defines the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring. Probability can range
from being qualitative, using descriptions such as “likely” or “highly
confident”, to quantified ranges and single estimates, depending on the level of
understanding of the causes of events, historical time series and future
conditions.

Impacts
Changes induced in a system (physical ecological or social) resulting from
climate change or climate variability which have significant deleterious effects
for its composition, resilience and/or productivity (based on UNFCCC)

Land Degradation
As defined by UNCCD, is the reduction or loss, in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-
humid areas, of the biological or economic productivity and complexity of
rainfed cropland, irrigated cropland, or large, pasture, forest and woodlands
resulting from land uses or from a process or combination of processes,
including processes arising from human activities and habitation patterns, such
as:
 Soil erosion caused by wind and/or water
 Deterioration of the physical, chemical and biological or economic
properties of soil; and
 Long-term loss of natural vegetation
GEF definition:
“any form of deterioration of the natural potential of land that affects ecosystem
integrity either in terms of reducing its sustainable ecological productivity or in
terms of its native biological richness and maintenance of resilience”
Summary Definition:
A reduction in land productivity that affects the integrity of an ecosystem
through erosion, salinization, loss of soil fertility and the like. Prevention and
control of land degradation, especially desertification and deforestation, are
critical to achieving sustainable development at the national and global
environmental levels.

Mitigation
Measures added to a project or activity to reduce, prevent or correct its impact;
Anthropogenic intervention to reduce the emission or enhance the sinks of
GHGs.

42
Policies and Measures
Usually addressed together, these address the need for climate adaptation in
distinct, but sometimes overlapping ways. Policies typically refer to
instruments that government can use to change economic and other behaviors.
Policies are usually composed of taxes, command-and-control regulations (e.g.
performance specifications for technologies), market mechanisms such as
trading schemes, incentives such as subsidies for new management techniques,
and information gathering (e.g. on the likely impacts of climate change) or
dissemination (e.g. on the merits of new technologies or behavior changes).
Measures are usually specific actions that are amenable to implementation,
such as re-engineering irrigation systems, planting different crops, or initiating
a new industry. Many “projects” could also be termed “measures”.

Stakeholders
Those with interests in a particular decision, either as individuals or as
representatives of a group. Include people who influence a decision, or can
influence it as well as those affected by it.

Strategy
A broad plan of action that is implemented through policies and measures.
Strategies can be comprehensive (i.e. focusing on national, cross-sectoral
scales) or targeted (i.e. focusing on specific sectors, regions or measures).
Sustainagility
Allowing the farmer’s agility to continue. This concept may capture the
dynamic complements to the ‘sustainability’ assessment of whether or not
current systems can survive. (Coined by Verchot, et al., 2007)

Uncertainty
An expression of the degree to which a value (.g. the future state of the climate
system) is unknown.

Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is likely to be affected by climate change or
climate variability; this degree is expressed as diminishing values for specified
indicators linked to a probability.

Weather
The atmospheric conditions at a particular place in terms of air temperature,
pressure, humidity, wind speed and precipitation.

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Annex 1: Integrated Climate Risk Assessment Framework
(ICRAF) for small farmers
Small farmers in developing countries are among the most vulnerable groups to
climate change. But even now, they are very vulnerable to current climate risks
(ENSO, drought, typhoons) ie they have very low adaptive capacity to climate
risks. Indeed an “adaptation deficit” exists where adaptation strategies available
now are not being taken advantage of (Leary et al, 2007). This is evidenced by
the high loss of property and life in recent climate- related hazards around the
world.
ICRAF is a participatory, iterative, interdisciplinary, bottom-up and multi-
stakeholder approach that allows gradual, creeping change based on tipping
points, large scale (more frequent ENSO, stronger/more frequent typhoons) to
trigger higher Adaptive Capacity and may need intervention (although these
interventions may not exactly be regular).

Adaptation
deficit analysis

Small
Farmers

Implementation Adaptation
/Mainstreaming Planning

Steps in ICRAF:
1. Adaptation deficit analysis
a) Assess current climate risks faced by small farmers
b) Analyze vulnerability of small farmers to climate risks
b) Assess the strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation
c) Determine if an adaptation deficit exists
2. Planning to build adaptive capacity
a) Determine strategies, measures, policies to enhance resilience of small
farming systems
b) Assess costs and benefits of adaptation options
c) Assess future climate risks and what adaptation can be done now (also for
perennials)

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3) Implementation and mainstreaming
a) Implement adaptation strategies and measure
b) Mainstream adaptation policies
c) Monitor and evaluate progress
d) Study ways to further improve adaptive capacity
e) Handling tipping points
Limitations of the Framework
- non-linear changes
- not for long term crops, infrastructure
- not for biological systems eg extinction of species

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 Annex ___. AIACCC results on some adaptation options for
Forests and Agriculture.
Effect on Water Resources Effect on Institutions Effect on Local Communities
Adaptation Strategy for
Forests and Agriculture

Use of early maturing crops + Lower water demand 0 + Higher income

Use of drought-resistant + Lower water demand 0 + Higher income

crops

Supplemental watering – Higher demand for water – Increase cost of – Greater labor demand
developing alternative + Higher income
sources of water

Proper scheduling of 0 – Increase cost for training, 0

planting technical assistance, R&D

Soil and water conservation + Conservation of water – Increase cost for training, – Cash expenses
measures technical assistance, R&D

Establishment of fire lines + More vegetative cover + Less expense for fire – More labor demand
promotes good hydrology fighting + Less damage to crops
from fire; more income

Construction of drainage + Better water quality (less – Increase cost of + Less soil erosion in the
structures sediment load) implementation farm; greater yield

Controlled burning + Less damage to 0 0

watershed cover

Tree planting + Better hydrology – Increase cost of + Steady supply of fuelwood

implementation – Less area for farm

Enhance community-based + + Better participation in the + Better participation

organizations political process

Total logging ban + More forest cover – Increase cost of – Less income
enforcement and protection – Fewer sources of income

Use of appropriate +/– Could promote or impair – Increase cost of – Increase cost of
silvicultural practices hydrology depending on the implementation implementation
practice.

Better coordination between + Promotes better + Greater collaboration + Better delivery of services
LGUs watershed management among LGUs to farmers

Information campaign + + Increase awareness and + Increase awareness and

competence competence

Better implementation of + Promotes better – Increase cost of +/– Could adversely affect
forest laws watershed management implementation current livelihood of farmers
that are deemed “illegal”

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Grassland Ecosystems
Impact Degree of Adaptation Measures
Climate Variability Vulnerability

Early or late onset of

rainy season
La Nina Less fires
El Nino Forest fires Highly vulnerable Fire brigade
Indicator: number of fires; area Indicator: IEC
burned Frequency of fires Indicator: number of fire
Area burned brigades,
High Temperature/ Forest fires Frequency of fires Fire lines
Summer season Indicator: number of fires, area Area burned Fire brigade
burned
Rainy season Less fires
Tree Plantations
Early or late onset High mortality of out planted High Plant after xx days of
of rainy season seedlings (late) rain; Mulching; Irrigation
Indicator: % survival (not practical); choice of
species
La Nina Higher survival?

El Nino Forest fires High Fires lines; fire brigades;

Indicator: frequency; area IEC; choice of species
burned
High Temperature/ Forest fires
Summer season
Rainy season Higher survival?

Natural Forests
Early or late onset of
rainy season

La Niña More landslides Low

Indicators: area; frequency
El Niño Forest fires on edges; increase Medium
slash and burn farming
Indicators: area, frequency

High Temperature/ Fires on edges

Summer season

Rainy season More landslides Low

Indicators: area, frequency
Upland Farms
Early or late onset of Late: low yield Choice of early maturing
rainy season Indicator: yield crops

La Nina Damage to crops Choice of varieties

Indicator: yield

El Nino Shortened planting season; Choice of varieties

lower yield; fires
Indicator: yield; area and
frequency of fires

High Temperature/ Fires Choice of varieties

Summer season

Rainy season Flooding of crops

Lowland Farms
Early or late onset of
rainy season

La Nina Flooding of crops High Choice of variety

Indicators: area flooded

El Nino Lack of irrigation water Medium Choice of variety; mulching

Indicators: crop yield

High Temperature/
Summer season
Rainy season

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48