Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1) Suppose that you have the opportunity to invest $50,000 in a new restaurant in
South Bend. (FYI: Dr. HG Parsa of Ohio State University has done a study that
shows that 59% of restaurants fail within the first three years!).
a) Given the following data, what is your opportunity cost here? Explain.
b) Now, suppose that as a part owner, you are allowed to eat for free as
often as you like. How does this change your calculation from (a)?
Given that you can eat for free, we would need to deduct your savings
in food costs from the above number.
2) Suppose that Amtrak builds a new train line from Chicago to Los Angeles.
Unfortunately, the train line passes through thousands of acres of cornfields in
Iowa. When the train passes through the cornfields, it throws off sparks that
destroy the corn. The corn farmers take Amtrak to court in an attempt to get the
train line shut down.
a) What would be the “right” outcome in this case? Explain.
b) The Coase theorem states that as long as negotiation between the two
parties involved is relative costless, the “right” outcome will result
regardless of how the judge might rule. Explain.
Suppose that the judge rules for Amtrak. We have the efficient
outcome and no side payments are needed.
Suppose that the judge rules for the Farmers. Then Amtrak will be
willing to make a payment to the Farmer’s (i.e. buy them off) to get the
land rights. Suppose that Amtrak pays the farmers $25,000 (we know
the payment will be somewhere between $50,000 and $20,000).
2
US: .33 Units of manufacturing per unit of services
6
6
England: 2 Units of manufacturing per unit of services
3
6
US: 3 Units of Services per unit of manufacturing
2
3
England: .5 Units of Services per unit of manufacturing
6
The US has a comparative advantage in services while England has a
comparative advantage in manufacturing.
c) Suppose that the average price of Services is $20 per unit and the average
price of manufacturing is $20. What trade pattern will emerge? What will
wages be in England and the US?
d) Suppose that the inflation rate in England is 3% while the inflation rate in the
US is 5%. How is your answer in (c) affected
In England, wages and prices will rise by 3% per year while in the US, wages
and prices will rise by 5% per year, but relative prices are unaffected so
production and trade patterns do not change.
4) Suppose that you have the following demand and supply curve for sneakers:
Qd 400 3P
Qs 200 2 P
So, we need to set supply equal to demand and solve for an equilibrium
price.
400 3P 200 2 P
200 5P
P 40
Note: as a check, we can plug 40 into both supply and demand to make
sure the quantities are equal.
Price
40
11,200
D
Quantity
280
%Q Q P 40
3 .43
%P P Q 280
Q 120 4P .001I
You know that the current market price is $10 and average income is $40,000.
40
CS
10
D Quantity
120
First, at an income of $40,000, solve for the price where quantity equals
zero.
Q 400 6P .005I
You know that the current market price is $20 and average income is $20,000
Q P 20
6 .31
P Q 380
Q I 20, 000
.005 .26
I Q 380
7) Suppose that you are concerned about drug use in the US. You are interested in
what the impact would be if authorities could be more effective at getting drugs
off the streets. The DEA has estimated the following data:
Qd a bP
Qs c dP
Use the data above to find the parameters a,b,c, and d.
Qd a bP
Qs c dP
Use the data above to find the parameters a,b,c, and d.
Q 950
b d .55 6.53
P 80
a Q bP 950 6.53 80 1472.4
Q 950
d s 1 11.88
P 80
c Q dP 950 11.88 80 0
b) As a check of the estimated model, solve for the equilibrium price and
quantity.
Qd 1472.4 6.53P
Qs 11.88 P
c) Suppose that the DEA is able to seize 100M grams of cocaine and take
it off the market. What will happen to the equilibrium price and
quantity?
So, we need to subtract 100 from the market supply and resolve for
price and quantity. Intuitively, what should happen is that the seizure
will force the price up, which creates incentives for more supply.
Qd 1472.4 6.53P
Qs 11.88P 100
Qd 1472.4 6.53P
0 1472.4 6.53P
P 225.48
The length of an MBA program is 2 years and is assumed that and MBA will have
a working career of 20 years after graduation. Further, suppose that, instead of
going to get an MBA, you could keep your current non-MBA job and invest what
you could have used to pay for tuition, risk free, at 4% per year.
We need to figure out the present value of $40,000 per year, starting two
years from now, at an interest rate of 4%.
(Note: I did this calculation in excel…I wouldn’t expect you to calculate
it!)
The opportunity cost of the MBA is the tuition plus the lost salary for two
years which is 2(50,000 + 30,000) = $160,000.
So, the benefits outweigh the costs at an interest rate of 4% (this says that
the return to an MBA is higher than 4%). With these numbers, the interest
rate would need to be over 20% for the costs to outweigh the benefits!
9) Suppose that a busy restaurant charges $9 for its octopus appetizer. At this price,
an average of 48 people order the dish each night. When it raises the price to $12,
the number ordered per night falls to 42.
a) Assuming that demand is linear, find the demand curve the restaurant
faces.
Q A 2P
48 A 2 9
A 66
Q 66 2 P
R PQ P 66 2P 66P 2P 2
So, to maximize revenues, take the derivative with respect to price and set
it equal to zero.
66 4 P 0
P 16.50
Q 66 2 16.50 33
R 16.50 33 $544.50
10) Suppose that you are a cattle rancher. You are deciding when to take your cattle to
market to sell. You currently have a herd of 100 cattle. Each cow currently
weighs 650 pounds and is gaining 50 pounds per month. Your feed costs are $40
per month per cow. Cattle prices are currently $8 per pound, but have been falling
at the rate of $0.10 per month. If you are maximizing profits, how many month
from now should you sell your cows?
So, we have profits equal total revenues minus total costs where (t is time in
months)
P 8 .1t
TC 100 40t
29,500 1, 000t 0
t 29.5
Solve for the profit maximizing choices for gasoline and heating oil.
120 16 P 4 B 0
140 24 B 4 P 0
Now, we need to solve the above system for P and B. First, solve the first
equation for B.
120 P 16 P 4 B 0
B 30 4 P
140 24 30 4 P 4 P 0
140 720 96 P 4 P 0
580 92 P 0
P 6.3
B 30 4 6.3 4.8
12) Suppose that your sales are a function of both price (P) and advertising expenses
(A) given by
Q 3,000 8 p 25 A 2 pA .5 p 2 3 A2
Solve for the combination of price and advertising that maximizes sales.
8 2 A p 0
25 2 p 6 A 0
Now, we need to solve the above system for p and A. First, solve the first
equation for p.
8 2 A p 0
p 2A 8
25 2 2 A 8 6 A 0
25 4 A 16 6 A 0
9 2A 0
A 4.5
p 2 A 8 2 4.5 8 1
13) We need to enclose a field with a fence. We have 500 feet of fencing and a
building is on one side and so won’t need any fencing. Determine the
dimensions of the field that will enclose the largest area.
Building
x Field x
l xy 500 2 x y
take the derivatives with respect to x and y and set them equal to zero
y 2 0
x 0
From the second equation, we have x . Plug into the first equation to get
y
x
2
y
Now, use the constraint with x
2
2 x y 500
y
2 y 500
2
2 y 500
y 250
x 125
14) Suppose that Apple is selling IPads in both the US and Europe. Sales in each
country are a function of the level of advertising and given by
S E 8 2 AE .2 AE2
Solve Apples’ maximization problem; maximize total sales across the two
districts subject to a total advertising budget of $4M. How would a $1M increase
in Apples’ advertising budget influence sales?
take the derivatives with respect to A(US) and A(E) and set them equal to zero
6 2.4 AUS 0
2 .4 AE 0
AUS AE 4
AUS 6 AUS 10 4
7 AUS 14
AUS 2
AE 2
6 2.4 AUS 6 2.4 2 1.2
So, a $1M increase in the advertising budget will raise sales by approximately
1.2(1) = $1.2M.
15) In the game blackjack, face cards are worth 10 points, aces are worth 1 or 11, and
all other cards are worth their face value. You are dealt two cards with the objective
of getting more points than the dealer. A “Blackjack” is 21. Assuming a fresh
deck (i.e. no cards have been dealt), what are the odds of getting blackjack?
First, let’s figure out the odds of getting an ace and then a 10 point card.
(Remember, once the ace has been dealt, there are only 51 cards left)
Prob(Ace) = 4/52
Prob (10 point card/an ace has been dealt)) = 16/51 (4 10s, 4 jacks, 4 queens, 4
kings)
Now, the alternative would be to get a 10 point card first, and then an ace
So, the total probability of a blackjack is 128/2652 = .048 (4.8%) – about 1 in 20.
16) Assuming two decks of cards (again, assume a fresh deck), if the dealer is showing
an ace, and you have not drawn any additional cards yet, what are the odds that the
dealer has blackjack?
If the first card dealt to the dealer is an ace, then there are 103 cards remaining in
the two decks, and 32 of those cards are worth 10 points. So, the odds are 32/103
(31.07%).
Now, looking at your hand, if you have one 10 point card, there are 101 cards
remaining and 31 of those cards are worth 10 points, so the odds of a dealer
blackjack are 31/101 (30.69%)
If you have 2 ten point cards, there are 101 cards remaining and 30 of those are
worth 10 points, so, we have 30/101 (29.70%)
If you have no 10 point cards, then the odds are 32/100 (31.68%)
17) Suppose that you are playing craps. If you roll the dice 10 times, what are the odds
that 4 of your rolls come up with a total of seven?
Recall, that you can roll a seven 6 ways (1+6, 6+1, 2+5, 5+2, 3+4, 4+34), so the
odds of a 7 is 6/36.
n!
p k 1 p
nk
P
k ! n k !
4 6
10! 6 30
P
4! 6 ! 36 36
18) Consider the following regression analysis of player performance measures and
average winnings per tournament in the PGA (Professional Golf). The data looks
at 196 players.
a) First, let’s consider driving distance (Note: The average driving distance is
287 yards with a variance of 68):
W D
Where W is average winnings and D is driving distance in yards.
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.20
R Square 0.04
Adjusted R Square 0.03
Standard Error 54041.64
Observations 196.00
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1.00 23093588860.13 23093588860.13
Residual 194.00 566576795050.79 2920498943.56
Total 195.00 589670383910.92
1
1 D D
2 2
SD W / D ˆ 1
N N 1Var D
1 300 287
2
[$0, $172,473.98]
c) How far must a player be able to drive the ball on average to expect to
have positive earnings?
Set winnings equal to zero and solve for D. We get D = 251.8 yards
Now, suppose that I altered the regression by taking the natural log of
winnings.
lnW D
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.108
R Square 0.012
Adjusted R Square 0.007
Standard Error 0.984
Observations 196.000
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1.000 2.237 2.237
Residual 194.000 188.027 0.969
Total 195.000 190.264
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat
Intercept 6.567 2.448 2.683
Average Drive 0.013 0.009 1.519
1
1 D D
2 2
SD W / D ˆ 1
N N 1Var D
1
1 300 287
2 2
e8.463 4, 736.25
e12.471 260, 667.30
W = [$4,736.25, $260,667.30]
P t
Where P is total non-farm payrolls in the US and t is time in months. The data used
is monthly data from Jan 1939 until August 2016 (t = 0 is Jan 1939). We have 931
observations (so, the average for time is 466 and the variance is 72,463)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.990
R Square 0.981
Adjusted R Square 0.981
Standard Error 4867.781
Observations 932.000
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 1120288062756.780 1120288062756.780
Residual 930 22036623597.343 23695294.191
Total 931 1142324686354.120
b) Calculate a forecast for Non-farm payrolls for December 2016 ( t = 935) with a
95% confidence interval.
1
1 tt
2 2
SD P / t ˆ 1
N N 1Var t
1
1 935 466
2 2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.990
R Square 0.981
Adjusted R Square 0.981
Standard Error 4832.911
Observations 932
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 4 1120672723961.980 280168180990.495
Residual 927 21651962392.140 23357025.234
Total 931 1142324686354.120
Quarter 1 jobs created are 1,757,508 lower than the 4th quarter
Quarter 2 jobs are 488,961 lower than the 4th quarter
Quarter 3 jobs are 667,040 lower than the 4th quarter
b) Calculate a new forecast for Dec. 2016 (don’t worry about the Standard Dev.)
ln P 1t 2 D1 3 D2 4 D3
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9874
R Square 0.9749
Adjusted R Square 0.9748
Standard Error 0.0700
Observations 932
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 4 176.3536 44.0884
Residual 927 4.5464 0.0049
Total 931 180.9001
So, now we have that payrolls increase by .0016 (.16%) per month or 12*.16
= 1.92% per year.
Seasonality is still present with payrolls in the first quarter being 2.47 percent
lower than the 4th quarter. The other quarters are not significantly different.
If I were to forecast Dec 2016 (t = 935)