UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC

ENGINEERING

YEAR 2015

PROJECT: PRJ/043

EFFECTS OF POWER UPGRADE FORECAST AND

EXPECTED LOAD

BY
NYOKABI DENNIS NJAU
REG NO.
F17/39127/2011

SUPERVISOR
PROF. M.K. MANGOLI
Project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of
Bachelor of Science in Electrical & Electronic Engineering of the University of Nairobi.

1
CERTIFICATION
This report has been submitted to the department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,
University of Nairobi with my approval as supervisor.

..............................................

PROF. M. K MANGOLI.

Date:........................................

2
DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY

NAME OF STUDENT: Dennis Njau Nyokabi

REGISTRATION NUMBER: F17/39127/2011

COLLEGE: Architecture And Engineering

FACULTY/ SCHOOL/ INSTITUTE: Engineering

DEPARTMENT: Electrical And Information Engineering

COURSE NAME: Bachelor Of Science In Electrical & Electronic

Engineering

TITLE OF WORK: EFFECTS OF POWER UPGRADE FORECAST AND

EXPECTED LOAD.

1) I understand what plagiarism is and I am aware of the university policy in this regard.
2) I declare that this final year project report is my original work and has not been submitted
elsewhere for examination, award of a degree or publication.
3) Where other people’s work or my own work has been used, this has properly been
acknowledged and referenced in accordance with the University of Nairobi’s requirements.
4) I have not sought or used the services of any professional agencies to produce this work. I
have not allowed, and shall not allow anyone to copy my work with the intention
of passing it off as his/her own work.
5) I understand that any false claim in respect of this work shall result in disciplinary action, in
accordance with University anti-plagiarism policy.

Signature: ………………………………………………………………………………………

Date: ……………………………………………………………………………………………..

3
DEDICATION

This work is dedicated to all family, friends and colleagues who gave me their unwavering support
towards the completion of this project.

4
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost I thank the Almighty God who has seen me through my studies at the
university.

Secondly, I greatly appreciate the guidance of my supervisor Prof. M. K. Mangoli, the Dean Faculty
of Engineering, Chairman-Department of Electrical and Information Engineering and all my
lecturers and support staff at the University of Nairobi for their support which contributed greatly to
the provision of knowledge as well as the completion of this project.

I wish to extend my sincere gratitude to the Ministry of Energy (MoE) for the information they
provided me with that was crucial to the success of this project.

Lastly, I extend special thanks to my mother ANNE NJAU for her mutual, emotional and financial
support throughout my education.

5
Table of Contents
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... 7
Chapter1 ......................................................................................................................................... 8
INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 8
1.1GENERATION .................................................................................................................. 9
1.2 Transmission................................................................................................................... 11
1.3Distribution ..................................................................................................................... 13
1.4 PROJECT SCOPE .......................................................................................................... 14
1.5 PROJECT OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................... 14
Chapter2 ....................................................................................................................................... 15
2.1 The 2011-2031 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) ....................................... 16
2.2 The 2014-2024 Ten year power expansion plan ............................................................... 16
2.2.1 Committed Projects for Generation Between 2014 to 2024 ................................. 16
2.2.2 +5000MW for Transforming Kenya ................................................................... 17
2.2.3 Planned hydropower plants................................................................................. 18
2.3 The 2015-2020 Medium term plan .................................................................................. 19
Chapter3 ....................................................................................................................................... 21
METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 21
3.1 The Power World Simulator ............................................................................................ 22
3.2 The data used .................................................................................................................. 23
3.2.1Transmission lines MVA rating ............................................................................ 24
3.3 Simulation models .......................................................................................................... 24
3.3.1 2016 model ........................................................................................................ 24
3.3.2 2020 simulation model ....................................................................................... 27
3.3.2 2020 400kv system simulation model ................................................................. 30
Chapter 4 ...................................................................................................................................... 32
RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................... 32
4.1 2016 simulation results ................................................................................................... 32
4.1.1 Bus data ............................................................................................................. 33
4.1.2 LINE VOLTAGE PROFILE ............................................................................... 34
4.1.3 System Transmission losses ................................................................................ 35
4.2 2020 SIMULATION RESULTS ...................................................................................... 35
4.2.1 Bus data ............................................................................................................. 36

6
 4.2.2 VOLTAGE PROFILE FOR RABAI TO NAIROBI LINE ................................... 36
4.2.3 LINE LOADING DATA..................................................................................... 37
4.2.4 System Transmission Losses ............................................................................. 39
4.3 2020 400KV SIMULATION MODEL ............................................................................ 39
4.3.1 Bus data ............................................................................................................. 40
4.3.2 LINE VOLTAGE PROFILE ............................................................................... 40
4.3.2.1 Suswa-Lessos line ................................................................................... 40
4.3.2.2 Nairobi220kv - Rabai line ....................................................................... 41
4.3.3 LINE LOADING DATA..................................................................................... 41
4.3.4 System Transmission Losses .............................................................................. 42
Chapter 5 ...................................................................................................................................... 43
COMMENTS AND CONCLUSION ............................................................................................. 43
5.1 Comments ...................................................................................................................... 43
5.1.1 2016 system ....................................................................................................... 43
5.1.2 2020 system ....................................................................................................... 44
5.1.2.1 220kv system .......................................................................................... 44
5.1.2.2 400kv system .......................................................................................... 45
5.2 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 46
RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................... 47
APPENDIX A - 2016 system simulated results.............................................................................. 48
APPENDIX B - 2020 220kv simulated results .............................................................................. 50
APPENDIX C - 400kv system simulated results ........................................................................... 52
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 55

7
ABSTRACT

Electrical power upgrades are important in sustaining an economical, stable and reliable Electrical
power system. Power upgrades are done at the generation level, transmission level and at the
distribution level. Upgrades are carried upon a forecast of the electric load and with reference to the
expected economic growth of a country at a given period into the future. In this paper we analyze
the effects of the proposed power upgrades on the national grid with reference to vision 2030
5000+MW projects. The effects will mainly focus on the power system stability in terms of voltage
and line losses. The stability of the power system is obtained by performing a load flow of the
national grid focusing on the major load regions in the country.

keywords: electrical power upgrades, effects of power upgrades, load flow.

8
Chapter1

INTRODUCTION

The Kenya national power grid has upgraded significantly since 1954 when the Kenya Power
Company (now KENGEN) was initially founded. This has been from importing electricity from our
neighboring country Uganda, having more than 30 power generating stations by 2015 which inject a
capacity of 2248MW to the national power grid. The national power grid is subdivided into three
parts;

i. Generation,
ii. Transmission
iii. Distribution

Initially Kenya Power Company was merged with Kenya Power and Lighting Company and it was
solely responsible for generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Kenya. However, in
1997 the two companies subdivided and KPC was re-branded Kenya Electricity Generating
Company(KENGEN) which is now responsible for generating electricity. KPLC therefore took the
responsibility of transmitting, distributing and billing of electricity and has enjoyed market
monopoly since then.

1.1GENERATION

There are over 30 power generating stations in Kenya and their diversity ranges from:

i. Hydroelectric generation
ii. Geothermal generation
iii. Diesel/gas/fossil fuel generation
iv. Bagasse co generation
v. Wind generation.

The Kenya Electricity Generating Company runs most of the power stations including hydroelectric
power stations, geothermal power stations, diesel power stations and wind power stations while

9
private investors in power generation mainly run diesel generators.
Majority of the power generating stations are hydroelectric for example, the seven folks dams
located along River Tana, Sagana, Turkwel and Sondu-miriu power station among others.
As at March 2015, the hydro electric generating stations contributed to about 37%(820MW) [10] of
the capacity on the national grid. However, these power stations become less efficient during
periods of drought. This is because the water levels are low leading to power fluctuations on the
national grid which then results to power rationing.

Diesel power generating stations rank second on the national grid. Majority of these power stations
are privately owned and they contribute 33% (717MW) [10] of the energy on the grid. These power
stations are not affected by climate and therefore they supply constant power throughout. However,
since they run on diesel they tend to increase the cost of electricity as the costs of fuel increases.

Geothermal power generating stations contribute 27%(563MW) [10] of the energy on the national
grid.
Geothermal power providers use steam to generate electricity making them a cheap alternative
compared to hydroelectric and diesel generators. With Kenya having the rift valley, Geothermal is
the most promising resource we have for power generation. Figure1.1 shows the prospective
geothermal locations in Kenya.

Other generating sources include wind power generation and Bagasse co-generation which
contribute 2%(52MW) [10].
Bagasse co-generation involves generation of electricity from sugar cane fiber residues. This is
done at a molasses milling plant in western Kenya.

Wind power generation is now becoming an important part of power generation in Kenya.
Currently only Ngong Wind farm is operational generating about 26MW into the national grid.

There are also other off-grid power generating stations that supply various areas of the country.
These include Lamu power station which produces 2.4MW for the 1.3MW demand in Lamu,
Garrisa power stations which generate 3.4MW for the 2.1MW demand in Garrisa [6].
These off-grid power stations by Ken Gen are diesel power generating plants.

10
The table below shows the total generation in Kenya as at march 2015.

Installed Effective Contribution

Hydro 820.60 797.50 37.7%
Geothermal 588.00 563.30 27.0%
Thermal (MSD) 633.00 614.50 29.1%
Thermal ( GT) 54.00 54.00 2.5%
Temporary Thermal (HSD) 30.00 30.00 1.4%
Wind 25.50 25.50 1.2%
Solar 0.00 0.00 0.0%
Cogeneration 26.00 21.50 1.2%
Interconnected System 2,177.00 2,106.00 100%
Off grid 26.00 20.70
Total Capacity 2,203.00 2,127.00
Table1. 1: Interconnected system capacity by technology, March 2015 :source[1]

11

fig.1. 1: Prospective Geothermal locations in Kenya :source[2]

1.2 Transmission

Transmission of electricity is done from the generating stations to the various substations via high
voltage AC (HVAC) lines or high voltage DC(HVDC) lines over long distances. These high voltage
lines range from 132kV and above and the main purpose is to reduce losses that occur on the lines
due to the long distances they cover.

Below is a table showing transmission distances with reference to transmission voltages;

Distance in km Transmission voltage in kV

15-30 11

30-60 33

60-100 66

100-200 132

200-300 220

300-400 400

Table1. 2: Transmission Voltages over different conductor lengths

In Kenya one of the main substation is the Dandora power substation. Electricity is transmitted from
the generating stations to the substation on either 132kV or 220kV AC lines. At the substations the
high voltage electricity is stepped down to lower voltages (33kVAC,66kVAC) for distribution to
other smaller substations and (11kVAC) for end consumers.

After Kenya Power Company(KPC) and Kenya Power and Lighting Company(KPLC) subdivided
in 1997, KPLC took the responsibility of transmitting, distributing and billing of electricity.
However in 2008 a body was curved out of KPLC to mainly deal with the transmission of
electricity and building of substations. This is now what is known as the Kenya Electricity
Transmission Company(KETRACO).

The Kenya Electricity Transmitting Company Limited has been given the mandate to
plan,design,build,operate and maintain high voltage transmission lines and set up sub-stations

12
across the country.

Kenya Electricity Transmitting Company has been able to extend the transmission distances to
various areas of the country and bringing electricity closer to the rural areas.
With these major contributions on power transmission, and the future projects KETRACO has in
store, it has become a major stakeholder of the national power grid.
The figure below shows the already constructed and planned for construction transmission lines.

13
fig.1. 2: Existing and planned Power Transmission Lines in Kenya :Source[1]

1.3Distribution

Distribution refers to the supply of electricity from substations to consumers using low voltage
feeders mainly 11kVAC lines. The 11kVAC is then stepped down to 415VAC from which 240VAC
is tapped for domestic customers. Some large industries running heavy machinery and consuming a

14
lot of power are fed with the 11kVAC so as to be able to sustain their consumption.

Distribution can be done through overhead cables or underground cables. Underground cables are
suitable for congested cities and towns since they reduce the risk of being entangled and coming
into contact with tall buildings in case of strong winds.

Various types of feeders include;

1. Radial feeders
2. Parallel feeders
3. Loop feeders
4. Inter-connected network system

Electricity distribution may also be done via DC feeders. However, with DC feeders boosters are
needed along the lines to compensate the excessive voltage drop experienced over the lines.
In Kenya Electricity distribution is done using the AC lines.

According to Kenya Power the sole distribution and billing company in Kenya, (2013) the
transmission and distribution networks covered about 49,818 kilometers and the maximum daily
electricity peak demand stood at 1,353MW [5]. However, by 2020 it is estimated that the demand of
electricity will be about 4500MW [3]. This implies that distribution of electricity ought to be
expanded so as to able to handle the growing demand.

1.4 PROJECT SCOPE

The main purpose of this project is to analyze the behavior of the High voltage (220kv and 400kv
)national grid system when more power is injected and to also see whether the power generated
meets the electricity demand in the country.

1.5 PROJECT OBJECTIVES

The objective of this project is to design and simulate the high voltage national grid system so as to
analyze the system characteristics by the year 2020 (medium term plan).

15
Chapter2

LITERATURE REVIEW

With vision 2030 projects taking place, it is expected that the economic growth of the country will

16
be on the rise and this will imply a higher electrical power demand. As from 2010 the ministry of
energy(MoE) has come up with quite a number of mid-term and long plans for the power sector.
These plans tend to focus mainly on generation of power transmission so as to expand the national
grid and fore-casting of the load. These plans include:

 The 2011-2031 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP)

 The 2014- 2024 Ten year power expansion plan
 The 2015- 2020 medium term plan.

2.1 The 2011-2031 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP)

With reference to the 2015 - 2020 medium term plan, this plan is said to be over ambitious in terms
of projected demand of power in the country. However, we cannot dismiss the information provided
in the LCPDP since some of the vision 2030 projects featured in the plan have been initiated and
some have been concluded while others are still on going.

Some of the already ongoing projects include the vision 2030 flag ship projects. These are shown
in the table below.

fig.2. 1: Vision 2030 flagship projects

2.2 The 2014-2024 Ten year power expansion plan

2.2.1 Committed Projects for Generation Between 2014 to 2024

Development projects being implemented under Vision 2030 and the overall economic growth will

17
increase the country‘s power demand. New sources of energy will include exploitation of
geothermal power, coal, renewable energy sources and connecting Kenya to countries in the region
for energy trade. The current exploration of oil and gas in the country creates an opportunity for
cheaper power as the country taps into its natural resources.

2.2.2 +5000MW for Transforming Kenya

The government has created an initiative to increase the existing national installed capacity to
>6,700MW in 40months. This period falls between June 2013 and December 2016. The main
objectives of this initiative are to:

a) Address the suppressed Power Demand

The electrification rate in Kenya is about 30% of the total population with rural areas constituting
only 13% of the total (predominantly middle and upper income groups). The government‘s strategy
is universal electricity access by 2020 to enhance economic development.

b) Provide a 30% reserve margin

The peak demand stands at 1,463MW as at December 2013 against a total effective capacity of
1,684.5MW. This leaves little reserve margin to allow for reduced hydro generation or any plant
breakdowns. In the short term the Government has contracted an emergency power producer to fill
the gap which has consistently imposed a high cost burden to electricity consumers. The current
installed emergency power is 30MW installed at Muhoroni.

c) Power energy intensive activities in the counties.

It is anticipated that electricity demand will rise sharply as numerous economic activities spring up
in the counties. The expected energy intensive activities include mining, production of iron and
steel products from local iron ore deposits, irrigation of large tracts of land for food security and
agro-based industry, operation of petroleum pipelines for both crude and refined fuel oils,

petrochemicals production including urea and steel production as well as establishment of industrial
parks.

18
d) Power electrification of rail lines and new economic zones
Electrification of designated rail lines, installation of electric infrastructure at shopping malls and
airports, and new economic zones will also require a lot of power. The additional capacity will
provide affordable electricity for these activities, which are expected to sharply transform Kenya.
The additional capacity will be developed from Geothermal 2,095MW, Natural Gas 1058MW
(including conversions), Wind 630MW and Coal 1,920MW, Thermal 163MW, Cogeneration 18MW
and Imports 400MW. This gives additional capacity of 6,284MW by 2018. Of the total additional
capacity, 1,115MW is from KenGen, 1067MW from GDC, 1,783MW from IPPs while both
KenGen and IPPs will competitively develop 1,920MW. The remaining 400MW will be imports
from Ethiopia.

The energy mix anticipated by 2018 assuming commissioning of additional capacity is represented
in the figure below.

fig.2. 2: Energy mix by 2018, Enhanced vision 2030 scenario

2.2.3 Planned hydropower plants

The most promising viable large hydro power resources in Kenya being considered currently are:

19
 i. High Grand Falls (500-700MW)
ii. Arror (60MW)
iii. Magwagwa (120 MW)
iv. Nandi Forest (50MW)
v. Karura (90MW)
vi. Ewaso Ngiro South (220 MW)

However, Ewaso Ngiro south has outstanding environmental concerns beyond Kenya's borders.
Therefore, two candidate hydro power projects, Karura and High Grand Falls, are considered most
promising for immediate development in the planning period. The other prospective hydro power
sites have not been simulated as candidate projects because either they require new or updated
feasibility studies or have outstanding issues that need to be resolved.

2.3 The 2015-2020 Medium term plan

This is the third Medium Term Plan (MTP) for the electricity sub-sector covering the period 2015-
2020. The report focuses on capturing pertinent issues arising from the implementation of
committed projects as defined in the 10 year electricity plan 2014-2024 and the 5000MW+
programme.

Due to the centrality of energy as a development driver, a lot of emphasis has been made on
expanding generation capacity in the country while also ensuring that this is affordable, accessible
and meets international commitments on cleanliness. Accordingly major investments are being
made in the electricity sector to ensure that capacity expansion meets the criteria. In its road map
towards this objective, a project dubbed “5000+MW power to transform Kenya”, was initiated in
2013 and aims to rapidly grow the installed capacity to 6,762MW by 2017. This was seen as a key
driver in realizing a desired economic growth of 10% annually from 2015 going forward.

To drive demand growth, the Government has initiated key projects under the vision 2030 flagships
which include but are not limited to iron ore smelting, electrified Standard Gauge and Light Rail,
ICT parks and the LAPSSET project. Additional demand will be created by the investments arising
from devolution including the targeted universal electricity access by the year 2020.

20
In a nutshell, the 2015-20 MTP focuses on: reviewing the load forecast based on the proposed
investments for meeting Vision 2030 targets, assessment of the demand and supply situation in light
of the proposed generation investments under the 5000+MW, reporting on progress of
implementation of committed projects, transmission system reinforcement requirements,
highlighting the cost estimates for the supply programme and evolution of tariffs in light of the new
investments in generation.

Electricity generated in 2013/2014 FY increased by 9.3% to 8,840GWh from 8,087GWh. The

highest peak demand recorded in the same period was 1,512MW from the previous recorded peak
of 1,463MW while customers grew by 18.7% to 2,766,441 in 2014 from 2,330,962 in 2013. The
growth in this demand can be attributed to a combination of normal growth and increased
connections in urban and rural areas.

On the supply side, the interconnected systems had an installed capacity of 2,177MW as at March
2015, of which 820.6MW is hydro, 717MW is thermal, 588MW is geothermal, 25.5MW is wind,
26MW is cogeneration and 26.0MW is in isolated grids.

In the medium term, demand is estimated at 2,834 MW by 2020 from 1,512MW in 2014, with an
estimated yearly growth rate of approximately 11%. The main drivers for this demand will be
growth in population, urbanization and GDP growth that will spark investment in the energy sector
to meet growing demand. The anticipated electrification of rail lines and the establishment of new
economic zones, new urban centers resulting from county investments using devolved funds and the
implementation of the universal access to electricity in the country will spur further demand for
power.

In the medium term, the projected installed capacity in the country will rise to 6,766MW under the
base case scenario. This will be developed from:

i. Geothermal 2152.7MW

ii. coal 981.5MW

iii. wind 650.4MW

iv. Thermal 133MW

21
 v. Hydro 550.3MW

vi. Cogeneration 22.4MW

vii. Solar 52.15MW and Imports 400MW from Ethiopia.

The estimated demand ranges from 1,512MW in 2014 to 2,834MW in 2020. The corresponding
energy demand increases from 8,840GWh in 2014 to 16,714GWh in 2020. The system capacity
factor ranges between 29% and 53% in the base case and 39% to 53% under the deferred case
scenario.

There are three-generation projects under prefeasibility and feasibility studies namely;

i. High Grand Falls hydroelectric project (HGF)

ii. Nuclear Electricity
iii. Bogoria – Silali Geothermal development block

HGF is a multipurpose project proposed by the Ministry of Regional Development and Authority
(MORDA) and is currently at the detailed design stage.

Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board has just completed the pre-feasibility study of Kenya’s nuclear
power programme and is expected to progress other preparatory activities towards full
establishment of the programme.

Bogoria – Silali Geothermal Development block project is intended to develop 800MW of steam
equivalent and financing commitments have been pledged by a number of development partners in
conjunction with the Government.

On transmission, the plan has analyzed the system for the plan period and made relevant
recommendations for each year of analysis. Recommendations include new transmission lines,
system reinforcement requirements and where necessary required sub-stations.

Chapter3

METHODOLOGY

22
The system (national grid) characteristics are going to be obtained by performing a power flow
simulation of the system. We will use the power world simulator to draw models of the
interconnected grid and perform the load flow simulation.

3.1 The Power World Simulator

PowerWorld Simulator is a power system simulation package developed by PowerWorld

Corporation. The package is designed from the ground up to be user-friendly and highly interactive.
PowerWorld simulator has the power for serious engineering analysis, but it is also highly
interactive and graphical.

PowerWorld consists of a number of integrated products . At its core is a comprehensive, robust

Power Flow Solution engine capable of efficiently solving systems of up to 100,000 buses. This
makes Simulator quite useful as a standalone power flow analysis package.

PowerWorld allows the user to visualize the system through the use of full-color animated one
line diagrams complete with zooming and panning capability.

Transmission lines can be switched in (or out) of service, new transmission or generation can be
added, and new transactions can be established, all with a few mouse clicks.

Additionally, the choice of PowerWorld is also influenced by the fact that PowerWorld Corporation
also distribute free licenses for students through their website. The license caters for a maximum of
13 bus system, which my system satisfies.

The Kenyan transmission grid is designed and simulated on the PowerWorld platform. To be able to
well understand the effects of power upgrade on the national grid, two models are designed. One
representing the grid at current time (2016) and a short term plan design representing the grid as at
2020. These effects will then be visible by investigating the following on the different model
designs:
1. Voltage and angles at all buses.
2. Line voltages along various lengths of line.
3. Flow of power between buses.

23
 4. System transmission losses.

3.2 The data used

Much of the data used in the models was mainly from ministry of Energy. This includes generation
capacity, load at various regions in the country, transmission lines set up and to be constructed.

The table below shows the planned generation from 2015 and 2020:

fig.3. 1: planned generation between 2015 and 2020

The figure below shows the estimated load as from 2015 to 2031:

fig.3. 2: Fore-casted load between 2015 and 2031

24
3.2.1Transmission lines MVA rating

The maximum power that teach transmission line in the simulation can carry was calculated using
the Surge Impedance Loading (SIL) formula.

i.e P = 1.5(SIL)
2
where, SIL = v /z0

v - Nominal voltage of the line

z0 - Characteristic impedance of the line

This formula was applicable for short transmission lines of less than 80km.

For long transmission lines greater than 80km, the formula below was used.

P = (0.5 * v2)/(Xl * Length)

v - Nominal voltage of the line

Xl - Series inductance of the line

3.3 Simulation models

3.3.1 2016 model

For the simulation model of the year 2016, we have 7 buses in total. These buses include:

1. Lessos
2. Lanet
3. Naivasha
4. Nairobi
5. Kamburu
6. Meru
7. Rabai

25
3.3.1.1 lessos bus (220kv)
This bus has been taken both as a generation bus and a load bus. The generation from
turkwel(106MW), Sondu-miriu(60MW) and Coogeneration from Mumias sugar Company(26MW)
have been lumped together making the total generation on the bus to be 192MW.
The bus holds the load from western Kenya region and export to Rwanda and the total load is
315MW 67MVAR.
This bus serves as the system slack bus.

3.3.1.2 Lanet bus (132kv)

This is a load bus having the lumped loads from North rift(70MW, 14MVAR) and Central
rift(103MW,23MVAR). The total load on the bus is 173MW, 37MVAR.
This bus is connected to Naivasha and Lessos via 132KV nominal voltage lines.

3.3.1.3 Naivasha bus (220kv)

This is a generation bus having the lumped generation from olkaria geothermal power plants. The
total generation is 583MW. This bus serves as the system slack bus.

3.3.1.4 Nairobi bus (220kv)

This bus represents all the Nairobi regions (Nairobi north, Nairobi south and Nairobi east). It serves
both as a generation bus and load bus. The total generation is 440MW coming from thermal
generators in Nairobi and Kiambere hydro plant(165MW). The thermal generators include:
 iber Africa(109MW)
 Gulf power(86MW)
 Thika power(80MW)

All these thermal generations have been lumped up as one unit giving 275MW.
The load in Nairobi is 851MW, 169MVAR.
This bus is connected to Kamburu and Naivasha via 220kv nominal voltage lines.

3.3.1.5 Kamburu bus (220kv)

Kamburu is a generation bus having lumped generation from
 Masinga

26
  Kamburu
 Gitaru
 Kindaruma
The total generation is 427MW from the hydro power plants.
This bus is connected to Meru, Nairobi and Rabai via 220kv lines.

3.3.1.6 Meru (220kv)

This is a load bus representing the Mt. Kenya region. The total load on the bus is 170MW,
33MVAR.

3.3.1.7 Rabai (220kv)

This bus represents the coast region. It acts as a load bus and generation bus having lumped
generation from the thermal generators in the coast which include:
 Rabai (90MW)
 Kipevu 1 (74MW)
 Kipevu 3 (117MW)
The total generation in the coast region is 355MW. The total load attached to Rabai is 273MW,
63MVAR.

The figure below shows the 2016 power world simulation model:

27
fig.3. 3: 2016 Power World simulation model

3.3.2 2020 simulation model

The model is made of nine buses all being operated at 220kv nominal voltage. This is because even
the proposed 400kv substations have not yet been set up and the 400kv lines will initially be
operated at 220kv. The nine buses include:

1. Lamu
2. Rabai
3. Nairobi
4. Kamburu
5. Meru
6. Isinya
7. Suswa
8. Naivasha
9. Lessos

3.3.2 .1 Lamu bus

28
This bus is mainly a generation bus having the lamu coal power plant injecting 960MW. It is
connected to rabai via a 220kv, 385km long transmission line and to Nairobi via a 400kv, 520km
long transmission line.

3.3.2 .2 Rabai bus

This bus represents the coast region(Mombasa). On it there is lumped generation from the diesel
generators which are:
 Rabai (90MW)
 Kipevu 1 (74MW)
 Kipevu 3 (117MW)
Making the total generation be 355MW and the total load is 813MW, 346MVAR.

3.3.2 .3 Nairobi bus

This bus represents all the Nairobi regions(Nairobi North, Nairobi South and Nairobi East). It acts
both as a generation bus and a load bus. The generation is from Kiambere (165MW) and thermal
generators(449MW) around nairobi which have been lumped together. These include:

 iber Africa(109MW)
 Thika power(87MW)
 Gulf power(86MW)
 Athi River(167MW)
The total load connected to Nairobi is 2214MW, 959MVAR.
This bus is linked to Isinya, Suswa, Naivasha, Kamburu and lamu.

3.3.2 .4 Isinya bus

This is a generation bus with 150MW of wind generation connected to it. It is linked to Nairobi,
Suswa and Rabai.

3.3.2 .5 Suswa bus

This bus acts as a generation and load bus. The generation sources are
 Loiyangalani wind generation(300MW)
 Ethopia import(400MW)
These generation sources have been set at suswa so as to reduce the number of buses on the system

29
model. The load attached to suswa represents central rift valley which is 292MW, 127MVAR.

3.3.2 .6 Naivasha bus

This bus is both a generation bus and a load bus. The generation is the lumped geothermal
generation from olkaria power plants which amounts to 1780MW. The load attached to this bus is
shared load from western Kenya region and North Rift regions. The total load sums upto 655MW,
211MVAR.
This bus is chosen as the system slack bus.

3.3.2 .7 Lessos bus

Lessos represents the Western region. The generation from turkwel and sondu miriu hydro power
stations is lumped on this bus making the total generation to be 166MW. The total load on this bus
is 485MW, 255MVAR. This load represents demands from parts of the Western region.

3.3.2 .8 Kamburu bus

This is a generation bus with lumped generation (427MW) from four hydro electric power plants on
the seven folk scheme. These power plants are:
 Masinga
 Kamburu
 Gitaru
 Kindaruma
This bus supplies power to Meru, Nairobi and Rabai via 220kv lines.

3.3.2 .9 Meru bus

This bus represents the Mt. Kenya region. It has generation from the Meru wind farm (400MW) and
load which amounts to 587MW, 238MVAR. This load is a summation of load from Mt. Kenya
region and Northern Kenya.
 Mt. Kenya (573MW, 232MVAR)
 North Kenya (14MW, 6MVAR)

The figure below shows the 2020 power world simulation model:

30
fig.3. 4: 2020 Power World simulation model

3.3.2 2020 400kv system simulation model

Even though the 400kv lines and sub-stations are going to be operated under 220kv nominal
voltage, a model for generation and loading as at 2020 was simulated using power world and the
system behavior analyzed.

The model has similar buses to the 220kv 2020 model only that the following buses have been
divided into 220kv bus and 400kv bus;

 Lamu
 Rabai
 Nairobi
 Isinya
 Suswa

The generation and loading is similar to that of the 220kv system only that the generation from
Naivasha bus has been lumped up to suswa 220kv bus.

31
 Below is the 2020 400kv power world simulation system design:

fig.3. 5: 2020 400kv Power World simulation model

32
Chapter 4

RESULTS

Successful power flow solutions were carried out using full newton-raphsons method for all the
models and the respective Y bus matrices and jacobian matrices are as shown in the appendix
section.

4.1 2016 simulation results

The total generation before the simulation was run was 1945MW and the load was 1779MW
368MVAR. Since the generators' AVR was set, after the simulation the generators provided the
required reactive power to maintain the bus voltages to the desired limits.

When the simulation was run with lessos being the system slack bus, The generation at lessos
increased to 247MW, 181MVAR and the generation at Naivasha decreased to 393MW, 232MVAR.
The generation at Naivasha had to decrease to prevent over generation which led to over voltages at
certain buses. This therefore brought the total generation to 1862MW, 891MVAR implying that the
total reserve capacity of the system was:

TOTAL GENERATION TOTAL DEMAND RESERVE CAPACITY

1862MW 1779MW 4%
Table4. 1: 2016 simulated system reserve capacity

Below is a figure showing the 2016 power world simulated system.

33
fig.4. 1: 2016 power World simulated system

4.1.1 Bus data

The results from the simulation showing the various bus parameters are shown in appendix A
fig.AIII.

Observations:
The following buses had experienced under voltages:

1. Lanet -0.66p.u(86kv)
2. Meru - 0.92p.u(201kv)

Switched shunts were introduced to the system to compensate for the low voltages on the lanet and
meru buses.

The bus results for the simulation with compensation are as shown in appendix A fig.AIV
Observations:
BUS SWITCHED SHUNT P.U VOLTAGE

34
 Lanet 29.2MVAR 0.76
Meru 27MVAR 0.95
Table4. 2: compensation for 2016 simulated system
2016 Power world Simulation model with compensation

fig.4. 2: 2016 simulated system with compensation

4.1.2 LINE VOLTAGE PROFILE

The line connecting Rabai to Nairobi was of interest and the voltage profile curve for the line is
shown in appendix A fig.AV.

Observations:
The voltage of the line reduces as the length increases and it is lowest at half the distance of the line
then begins to increase as it approaches the Nairobi bus. The table below shows the voltage of the
line at quarter lengths.

DISTANCE(%) P.UVOLTAGE
0 1.000
25 0.979
50 0.972
75 0.979
100 1.000

35
Table4. 3: 2016 simulated system voltage profile for Rabai-Nairobi line

4.1.3 System Transmission losses

The table below shows the transmission power losses in the system.

Total Power Transmitted Total Power Losses Percentage

1003MW 76MW 7.6%
Table4. 4: 2016 system total transmission losses

4.2 2020 SIMULATION RESULTS

When the simulation model for the year 2020 was run, the generation at Naivasha which was the
system slack bus reduced to 1604MW making the total generation 5260MW. The generators were
set on AVR mode and therefore produced reactive power to balance the voltage levels of the system.
Only the generator at Kamburu bus was consuming reactive power equal to -27MVAR and
therefore the total reactive power generated was 3548MVAR.

With the total load on the system being 5046MW it implies that the total reserve capacity of the
system will be:

TOTAL GENERATION TOTAL DEMAND RESERVE CAPACITY

5260MW 5046MW 4%
Table4. 5: 2020 simulated system reserve capacity

36
Below is the 2020 power world simulated system.

fig.4. 3: 2020 Power World Simulated system

4.2.1 Bus data

The bus results for the 2020 simulation model are as shown in appendix B fig.BIII.

Observations:
There were no buses with under or over voltages therefore no compensation was required for this
system.

4.2.2 VOLTAGE PROFILE FOR RABAI TO NAIROBI LINE

The curve showing the voltage profile for the Rabai to Nairobi line is shown in appendix B fig.BIV.

Observation:
The voltage reduces as the line approaches mid length and then increase from mid length towards
the other end bus. Voltage magnitude at quarter lengths of the line are shown in the table below:

37
 DISTANCE(%) P.UVOLTAGE
0 1.000
25 0.998
50 0.997
75 0.998
100 1.000
Table4. 6: 2020 simulated system voltage profile for Rabai-Nairobi line

4.2.3 LINE LOADING DATA

The line limits were set for various lines and the simulation results are shown in appendix B fig.BV

Observations:
The following lines were experiencing overloading:

No. From To MVA rating MVA transferred Percentage(%)

1. Naivasha Lessos 426 764 179
2. Lamu Nairobi 372 740 199
Table4. 7: Overloaded lines in the 2020 simulated system

Below is the simulated system showing overloaded lines.

38
fig.4. 4: 2020 simulated system showing overloaded lines

The overloading on Naivasha lessos line was controlled by reducing the load the Lessos bus to
514MW and the line loading reduced to about 80%. Below is the simulated system with reduced
load on lessos bus.

fig.4. 5: 2020 simulated system showing line loading with with reduced load at lessos

39
4.2.4 System Transmission Losses
The table below shows the system transmission losses.

Total Power Transmitted Total Power Losses Percentage

3428MW 89MW 2.6%
Table4. 8: 2020 220kv system transmission losses

4.3 2020 400KV SIMULATION MODEL

The simulation model was run and the Y bus and jacobian matrices for the successful Newton-
Raphson power flow solution are shown in appendix C.

When the simulation was run, with geothermal generation lumped at suswa being the system slack
bus, the generation reduced to 1596MW this brought the total generation of the system to 5385MW.
Since the generators were set on AVR mode, they generated reactive power so as to maintain the
system voltages within limits. Therefore the total real and reactive power generated was 5385MW,
3456MVAR for a load totaling to 5195MW,2130MVAR hence the system had a reserve capacity of;

TOTAL GENERATION TOTAL DEMAND RESERVE CAPACITY

5385MW 5195MW 3.6%
Table4. 9: 2020 400kv simulated system reserve capacity

Below is the 2020 400kv simulated system showing flow of power;

40
fig.4. 6: 2020 400kv Power World simulated system

4.3.1 Bus data

The bus data for the simulated system are shown in appendix C fig.CIII.

Observations:
All buses were at 1.00p.u voltage magnitude and therefore no compensation was required for this
system.

4.3.2 LINE VOLTAGE PROFILE

4.3.2.1 Suswa-Lessos line

The curve showing the voltage profile of the line is shown in appendix C fig.CIV.

Observations:
The voltage along the line was lowest at half length of the line but 1.00 p.u voltage magnitude was
experienced at both ends. Below is a table showing quarter lengths voltage magnitude.

41
 DISTANCE(%) P.UVOLTAGE
0 1.000
25 0.985
50 0.980
75 0.985
100 1.000
Table4. 10: 2020 400kv simulated system voltage profile for Suswa-Lessos line

4.3.2.2 Nairobi220kv - Rabai line

The curve showing the voltage profile of the line is shown in appendix C fig.CV.

Observations:
This line experienced no voltage drops and its voltage magnitude was 1.00 p.u from end to end.
Below is a table showing quarter lengths voltage magnitude of the line.

DISTANCE(%) P.UVOLTAGE
0 1.000
25 1.000
50 1.001
75 1.001
100 1.002
Table4. 11: 2020 400kv simulated system voltage profile for Rabai-Nairobi line

4.3.3 LINE LOADING DATA

The results for the 400kv system line loading are shown in appendix C fig.CVI.

Observations:
Only two lines had above 80% loading:

42
 No. From To MVA rating MVA transferred Percentage(%)
1. Suswa Nairobi220kv 338 302 89
2. Lamu Rabai 166 150 91
Table4. 12: Table showing lines with over 80% loading

Below is the simulated system showing line loading percentages.

fig.4. 7: 2020 400kv simulated system showing line loading

4.3.4 System Transmission Losses

The table below shows the system transmission losses.

Total Power Transmitted Total Power Losses Percentage

3918MW 180MW 4.6%
Table4. 13: 2020 400kv system transmission losses

43
Chapter 5

COMMENTS AND CONCLUSION

5.1 Comments

5.1.1 2016 system

It is seen that with the 2016 system, there are regions that are experiencing under voltages namely
central rift regions represented by lanet bus and upper mt. Kenya region represented by the Meru
bus. This therefore called for reactive compensation in the areas so as to improve the voltage levels.

With the 2016 system, the system inhibits the power transfered to the western Kenya region
represented by Lessos bus. With the bus acting as the system slack bus in the simulations, it is
evident that more generation needs to be injected to western Kenya region so as to be able to supply
the load in the region.

The generation from Naivasha (geothermal) was reduced by system as as to bring stability into the
system and prevent over generation which could lead to over voltages in the system.

By looking at the voltage profile of the line between Nairobi and Rabai from which power is tapped
to supply regions between the two buses, it is observed that areas between Voi and Sultan-hamud
experienced under voltages of upto 0.972 p.u voltage magnitude.

In this system, power is seen to flow from Rabai to Nairobi through the long Rabai-Kiambere-
Nairobi line. This is because there is more generation in the coast region more than the load of the
region and the Rabai-Kiambere-Nairobi line is the only direct path to evacuate power from the
coast region to Nairobi.

44
5.1.2 2020 system

These systems have more generation and larger loading compared to the 2016 system. The 220kv
system is a 400kv system being operated at 220kv. This will be so since according to the ministry of
energy, the projected load at that time will not so large to call for transfer of more power along the
transmission lines. More-soever, some of the 400kv substations have not yet been constructed and
the government is facing problems acquiring land especially in areas of Suswa where the
communities want more compensation.

5.1.2.1 220kv system

This system has 400kv lines being operated at 220kv. All buses are seen to be at 1.00 p.u voltage
magnitude. With the generation of wind in Meru and Isiolo and later Marsabit, the voltage in this
region is expected to improve to 1.00 p.u voltage magnitude.

The voltage profile for the Nairobi - Rabai shows that the voltage magnitude is uniform along the
entire line at 1.00 p.u this is because of the increased generation at either end of the line.

The Lamu - Nairobi line will be the only line experiencing overloading in the system with 199%
loading. This is because of the large generation in Lamu with only two power evacuation paths and
with Nairobi having a bigger demand compared to Rabai, then more power flows from Lamu to
Nairobi than from Lamu to Rabai.

The load in the Western region (lessos) will be limited to 514MW so as to avoid over loading of the
Naivasha - Lessos line.

The is seen to power flow from Nairobi to Rabai unlike with the 2016 system and a shorter link
between the two buses is brought in via Rabai - Isinya line.

45
5.1.2.2 400kv system

This system operates the rated 400kv lines at 400kv. All the buses in this system are seen to be at
1.00 p.u voltage magnitude. This implies that many regions in the country will experience good
voltage levels. The voltage around Lanet areas is seen to improve to 0.982 p.u compared to the 2016
system which was 0.760 p.u.

With this system, only the Suswa - Nairobi and Lamu - Rabai lines are expected to experience more
than 80% loading with 89% and 91% respectively.

With the Suswa - Lessos line now being operated at 400kv, it is expected more power is to be
transferred to western Kenya region and therefore it paves way for increase in demand (almost
double the 220kv system) in the region with new generation in the area.

46
5.2 CONCLUSION

As the country plans the 5000+MW power generation by 2030 it is clear that the current system
cannot handle that amount of power to be transfered. This therefore calls for upgrades in the
transmission system from the current 132kv transmission lines and 220kv transmission lines to
400kv lines for more power transfer across long distances. This is because the 400kv systems will
handle much more power with lesser transmission losses thus providing stability and efficiency of
the system.

The increase in generation in the various parts of the country will improve voltage levels especially
in regions that currently experience under voltages like Upper mount Kenya areas, areas around Voi
and upper rift valley areas. This will therefore promote economic growth since power demanding
industries can be set up in this regions with investors being sure that they will get enough voltage
for their equipment.

With much of the generation coming from geothermal plants, then it is expected that power supply
in the country will not be affected in times of dry seasons where hydro power plants experience
water level issues leading to power rationing in the country. This will also reduce the use of Heavy
Fuel(HFO) power stations which are expensive to run and many times lead to high cost of power in
the country.

However, the electricity demand in 2020 is not likely to reach the demand used in the simulations
due to slow economic growth in the country and delays in rural electrification programs which
would help increase the demand for power. Therefore having all the new generation brought onto
the grid will imply that the country will be producing more power than it requires. This will
therefore need the regional inter-connectors to be set up as soon as possible so as to be able to
export surplus power to regional neighbours like Tanzania and Rwanda.

47
RECOMMENDATIONS

The simulations carried out in this project were limited to 13 buses since the software could not
allow more than that. Therefore it was difficult to have separate PV and PQ (generation and load)
buses and hence the results obtained for the various buses may possibly not much the real values of
the ground due to generation and load being lumped on those buses. I would therefore recommend
use of a software that accepts use of more buses so as to have standalone generation buses and
standalone load buses.

The line characteristics and line limits were calculated neglecting the temperature factor of the line
and therefore those limits may differ with the constructed lines due to the temperature factor. This
therefore made it not possible to find out whether the lines would melt down in cases of overloading
and therefore getting to know the actual current limits of the lines.

48
 APPENDIX A - 2016 system simulated results

fig.A I: Y Bus data for 2016 power world simulated system

fig.A II: Power flow Jacobian for the 2016 Power world simulated system

fig.A III: Bus data for the 2016 Power World simulated system

fig.A IV: Bus data for the compensated 2016 Power world simulated system

49
fig.A V: Line voltage profile for the Rabai - Nairobi line

APPENDIX B - 2020 220kv simulated results

50
 fig.B I: Y bus for 2020 220kv power world simulated system

fig.B II: Power flow Jacobian for 2020 220kv Power world simulated system

fig.B III: Bus data for 2020 220kv Power world simulated system

51
 fig.B IV: Voltage profile for Rabai - Nairobi line for 2020 220kv simulated system

fig.B V: Line loading data for 2020 220kv Power world simulated system

52
 APPENDIX C - 400kv system simulated results

fig.C I: Y bus for the 400kv Power World simulated system

fig.C II: Power flow Jacobian for the 400kv power world simulated system

fig.C III: 400kv power world simulated system bus data

53
fig.A IV: Voltage profile for Rabai - Nairobi line

fig.C V: Voltage profile for Suswa - Lessos line

54
fig.C VI: Line loading data for the 400kv power world simulated system

55
REFERENCES

1. 2015 - 2020 Medium Term Plan - MoE

2. 2014 - 2024 Ten year Power Expansion Plan - MoE
3. 2011 - 2031 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) - MoE
4. http://www.ketraco.co.ke/projects/all_projects
5. http://www.kenyapower.co.ke/
6. http://www.kengen.co.ke/
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Kenya
8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectric_power_in_Kenya
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_power_in_Kenya
10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Kenya
11. http://www.erc.go.ke

56
57
58