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Discrete Probability Models:

Binomial

SUJAY MUKHOTI
19-06-2019

1
BINOMIAL

READING

Acz: 3-4, 3-5; Problems: 3-38 -- 3-41

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BINOMIAL

Probability mass function (pmf)

𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒

• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑝𝑞 𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1,2 … ; 0 < 𝑝 < 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞 = 1 −


𝑥. 𝐼𝑠 𝑓 𝑥 𝑎 𝑝𝑚𝑓?

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BINOMIAL

Problem

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BINOMIAL

Probability Mass Function

•Probability that a discrete random variable takes a


particular value is called the probability mass function.
•If X is a random variable, P(X = r) is the probability
mass function.

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BINOMIAL

Cumulative Distribution Function

•The cumulative distribution of, F(X), of a discrete


random variable is given by:
x
F ( x)  P( X  x)   P(i)
i 1
b
Pa  X  b    P(k)  F (b)  F (a )
k a

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BINOMIAL

Problems

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BINOMIAL
Quantitative Methods by SM

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution*

 Poisson Distribution*

 Hyper geometric Distribution

 Geometric Distribution

 Multinomial Distribution

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BINOMIAL

Bernoulli Trials

• An experiment that results in only two outcomes


• Success or Failure

• Two experiments are independent if the outcome


of one does not influence the second
• One coin is tossed two times
• One coin is tossed and if H then a die is
thrown else another coin is tossed

• P(Success) is constant over trials

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BINOMIAL

Bernoulli Trials

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BINOMIAL

Problem

A person bets on a horse that wins with a probability


of 0.2. The person will get Rs. 800/- if the horse wins
and lose Rs. 200/- if the horse loses. What is the
expected value of his earnings in rupees from this bet?
What is the standard deviation of his earnings
(in rupees) from the bet?

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BINOMIAL

Binomial Model

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BINOMIAL

Binomial Distribution

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BINOMIAL

Understanding the pmf

• Probability of k successes is p k .
• Probability of n - k failures is (1- p) n-k .
n
• k successes in n trails can happen in   ways.
k

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BINOMIAL

Problem

• Three of the 10 airplane tires at a hangar are


faulty. Four tires are selected at random for a
plane; let F be the number of faulty tires found.
Is F a binomial variable?

• A salesperson finds that, in the long run, 2 out


of 3 sales calls are successful. Twelve sales
calls are to be made; let X be the number of
concluded sales. Is X a binomial variable?

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BINOMIAL

Examples

Let x be a binomial random variable with n = 8 and p


= 0.4. [n=8] X= x P[X=x]

Find these values: 0 0.017

a) P (X = 4) 1 0.09
2
b) P (X ≥ 4)
3 0.279
d) P (X < 4) 4
5 0.124
Plot the CDF. 6 0.041
7 0.008
8

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BINOMIAL

Example

Let X be a binomial random variable with following


CDF-plot. Find its pmf

1
256
625

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BINOMIAL

Problems
• In a roll of two dice, find the distribution of sum of the
faces turned up. Which sum is most probable? What is the
CDF?
• Suppose players at a casino roll two dice. X = number of
times a total of 5 or more has appeared among the 8
players playing independently. Find the distribution of X.

• What is expected number of times this value will turn?


Variance?

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BINOMIAL

Examples

A jar contains five balls: three red and two


white. Two balls are randomly selected
without replacement from the jar, and the
number of red balls (X) are recorded.
Explain why X is or is not a binomial random
variable?

What is the probability distribution of X?

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BINOMIAL

Problem

A computer lab in a school has 33 computers each with


reliability 0.9. Allowing for 10% of the computers to be down
an instructor specifies registration ceiling of 30.
a. What is the probability that each of the 30 students will get
a working computer?
b. If the probability of each student getting a working
computer needs to be improved to at least 95% then
1. how many students should be admitted
2. how much the computers reliability should be
increased so that all computers work with 95%
confidence?

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BINOMIAL

Mean and Variance

Mean = np.
Variance = np (1- p) = npq.
Standard deviation = npq

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BINOMIAL

Problem
A basketball player attempts 18 shots from the field during a
game. This player generally hits about 1/3 of these shots.
(a) Under what assumptions binomial can be used in this
example? Are they reasonable?
(b) How many baskets would you expect this player to make in
the game? Standard deviation?
(c) If the player hits more than 12 shots would you be surprised?
(Don’t use exact computation)
(d) How many points would you expect the player to score if all of
these are 2-point shots?
(e) If this player randomly takes half of the shots from 3-point
range and half from 2-point range (both with 35% chance, how
many points would you expect the player to score?
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BINOMIAL

Shape of Binomial Distribution

For p = 0.5, the shape of the distribution is


symmetric. As p get closer to 0 or 1, the shape of
the distribution becomes skewed.

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BINOMIAL

Problem
A commuter airline deliberately overbooks flights,
figuring that only 75% of passengers with reservations
show up for its flights. It flies small propeller planes that
carry 20 passengers.
(b) If the airline allows 25 passengers to book
reservations for a flight, what is the probability that the
flight will be oversold? Do not use the probability
distribution and instead think about the mean and shape
of the binomial distribution.
(c) Find the probability of overbooking. Did the rough
approach taken in part (b) get close enough to the right
answer?
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BINOMIAL

Example

20 people have been asked to attend a meeting. Each of them


has 50% chance of appearing in the meeting. The convener
of the meeting have to order refreshments. Any person
attending the meeting likes tea with probability 0.56. Based
on this observation the convener orders 9 cups of tea. What
is the probability that 9 cups will be consumed and no extra
needs to be ordered? What is the probability of no tea being
ordered? What is the chance that there will be shortage of
tea by 2 cups?

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BINOMIAL

Problem

A graduating student keeps applying for jobs until she gets an


offer. Probability of getting an offer is 0.35.
a. What is the expected number of applications?
b. If she has enough time to complete at most four applications
how confident she could be of getting an offer therefrom?
c. If she wants to be 95% confident then how many applications
should she send?
d. Suppose she has time for at most four applications. What
should be min p so that she could be 95% assured?

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Next Topic : Poisson Distribution

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