TEST EFFECT ON LAND TOWARDS PRODUCTION PRODUCTION OF RIMBA

WOOD VOCATIONAL SCHOOL USING REGRESSION TEST USING R

1
HALID ALPHARD RAMADHANU, 2WALID
1
Mahasiswa, Jurusan Matematika, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia
2
Dosen, Jurusan Matematika, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Email : 1alramadhanu@gmail.com, 2alikuwalid87@yahoo.com

Abstract
This study discusses how to Test Simple Linear Regression of Land Area on Production Results of Logging
Carpentry A Timber Jungle. The data used are the data used in this study are data taken each year, from 2008 to
2017. This study studies how the influence of land area on the production of logging wood A Timber Rimba. It
turns out that the area of land greatly influences the amount of carpentry wood production. In this study, a
regression equation is obtained, namely Y = 852.8 + 119.4 X, which means that each hectare can produce about
972.2 trees. From this research can be an illustration of how to produce maximum production with existing land.
This research can be applied by predicting how much carpentry wood needs in the next 5 years. Then prepare
adequate land to produce the wood needed. Considering that the carpentry wood in its growing period until it
can be used as a carpentry material takes 5-10 years.

1. INTRODUCTION 2. THEORITICAL BASIS

Indonesia, as a country known for its rich
natural resources, is blessed with abundant natural
resources, especially forests. Indonesia has a vast
expanse of forest around ± 99.6 million hectares or
52.5% of the total area of Indonesia (Badan Pusat
Statistik). Forests as the lungs of the world are
valuable assets that need to be preserved for the
sake of future generations. Forests in Indonesia
store biodiversity with a variety of flora and fauna
in it. The forest is a habitat for various endemic
flora and fauna, so the existence of the forest can
be a protector of the existing flora and fauna. Forest
management is absolutely necessary, because the
destruction of the forest can threaten the
destruction of thousands of flora and fauna species.
In addition, good forest management can also be a
source of life for the surrounding community.
Forest preservation is not only the
responsibility of the government, but it is our
collective responsibility as a caliph on this earth to
always preserve the universe and its contents for
the benefit of all humanity. This is where the
important role of Perhutani in conducting business
management, management and protection of forests
that are used for public benefit without ignoring
profit.
Perum Perhutani Central Java Regional
Division is responsible for 20 FMUs in the Central
Java region.
R is the result of the collaboration of
statisticians and mathematicians around the world.
R was created by Ross Lhaka and Robert
Gentleman around 1990. The S-language based R
was developed at Bell Laboratory in 1970 by John
Chambers. R (language and software) is now
developed by 20 people known as the R Core
Team. R is also known as DSL (Doman Specific
Language) software. Over time and after decadu
90s, the data journey that was only 5 times the
development eventually became 50 times more.
The rapid development of data after 2005 is also
known as Big Data. R as a programming language
and software framework position is very important
because competitor mltiplatform can also import
this data (big data) from other programs (Database
Management Program) such as Twitter data
analysis (TwitterR), Hadoop, Google API, Oracle,
Mysql and etcetera. R is becoming stronger
because of the support of packages or modules that
can only be used for cartridge games (load and
unload). The usefulness of R is not only limited to
statistical analysis. By creating packs and making
improvements in many fields, R has developed into
a very useful tool for the needs of all types of data
management.
There are several advantages to using the R
Program, both as information technology
professionals, business analysis, or others. These
benefits are discussed in the following points.
1. Free: R is available to you at no cost, The saying,
"give someone a data analysis tool and he will learn
to analyze data" is never right.
2. Cross-Platform: R runs on Mac, Windows and
many Unix systems.
3. Open Source: R is an open source that allows
you to train your genius in a way that is not done
by closed software.
4. Programmable: R is a powerful yet direct
programming language designed to compliment the
formation of complex strategies.
5. Extendable R: R can be expanded through
thousands of available packages.
6. Graphics: R contains powerful graphic
capabilities. Do you want to make a plot using
simple stipulations from time to time or a complex
battle map layout, R is ready to use.
7. Supported by the community: R has a broad
community of users who continually update and
contribute to their abilities.
We can use regression analysis to inform our
predictions. Regression analysis is a data modeling
technique that helps us understand how different
variables change with each other. Regretesis
models must include at least one dependent
(outcome) and independent (predictor) variable,
although several of them can be included. We can
use a regression model to predict results based on
data available to us.
Simple linear regression is the most basic form of
regression analysis, it uses a single independent
variable to predict the outcome of a single
dependent variable. To begin experimenting
regression analysis in R, we create a simple linear
model in the following way.
1. Use the lm function (formula, data) to create a
linear regression model.
2. Display the contents of the linear regression
model variable on console R by calling the model
that has been made.
3. See a summary of the linear regression model
created using the summary function (model).
Simple Linear Regression Test or Multiple Linear
Regression in essence has several objectives,
namely:
1. Calculate the estimated average value and the
value of the dependent variable based on the value
of the independent variable.
2. Test the hypothesis of dependency
characteristics.
3. Predict the average value of the independent
variable based on the value of the independent
variable outside the sample range.
The coefficient of determination (R-squared) is a
measure that shows how much variation in the data
(Data is an item that represents facts, text, graphics,
images, sound, analog or digital video segments.
Data is the raw material of the supplied system by
data producers and used by users of information to
create information). Can be explained by a
regression model (A model is a representation of a
set of process components, systems, or subjects,
generally developed for understanding, analysis,
improvement and or change in processes. A
representation of information, activities,
relationships, and events. The model can be
manipulated to test assumptions A simulation that
examines the number of units that can be processed
in each hour under a certain set of conditions is an
example of the model.Different diagrams, the
model does not need to be graphical.A model can
be a picture, diagram or mathematical formula.
The Linear Regression Equation from Y to X is
formulated as follows:
Y=a+bX
Dengan :
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = intercept
b = slop
3. METHOD
The data used in this study are data taken annually,
from 2008 to 2017. This data was obtained from the
annual Statistics book from Perum Perhutani.
The complete data can be seen in the table
 Tahun Produksi Kayu Area and Carpentry Wood Production Graph
Luas ( Ha ) Pertukangan

2008 10 2227

2009 17 3506

2010 225 29021

2011 219 26324

2012 343 40365

2013 307 38840

2014 205 26744 From the figure, it can be seen that the plot size and
production of carpentry wood are already linear, so
2015 225 29021 it can be continued with the regression test.

2016 219 26324 Results from Linear Regression Test

2017 343 40365

The above data were analyzed using the Linear

Regression method using the R program. Simple
linear regression analysis is one of the regression
methods that can be used as a statistical inference
tool to determine the effect of an independent
variable on the dependent variable.

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Data on the Area and Production of Carpentry
Timber A Timber Jungle from 2008 to 2017 that
has been processed using R software to obtain the
following results.
Area and Carpentry Wood Production Graph
Based on Figure 2.3 can be seen, has been obtained
the value of coefficient intercept = 852.8 and x =
119.5. Then the value of R-squared or
Determination Coefficient is obtained which shows
how good the regression model is formed between
the dependent variable and the independent
variable, the R-squared value obtained here is
0.992 or 99.2%, which means that the variable X
has a contribution effect of 99, The other 2% and
0.8% are influenced by other factors.

In the results also obtained p-value 1.149 e-09

<0.05 which means that there is an influence
between Variable X (land area) against Y Variable
(production yield).

In Coefficients can be used to model the equation

From the picture above the plot can be seen if the
plot tends to go up To be more convincing we can
make a linear line, and get it like Figure.
equation from linear regression. Based on the
results, a linear regression equation is obtained,
namely Y = 852.8 + 119.4 X.
Then proceed with the Correlation test to see the
strongest relationship between the dependent
variable Y with the independent variable X.
 Correlation test results Model Summary

Std. Error
Mo R Adjusted of the
del R Square R Square Estimate

1 ,997a ,993 ,993 1174,594

a. Predictors: (Constant), X

Based on the Summary Model table from SPSS, the

From the above calculation results obtained R square is 0.993 where the value is almost the
Correlation value of the regression equation above same as the results of the analysis conducted by the
is 0.995 where the value is very high which means R program, which is 0.9927.
the relationship between the dependent variable Y
ANOVAa
and the independent variable X is very close.
99.5% are influenced by the independent variable Sum of Mean
X and the other 0.5% are influenced by other Model Squares df Square F Sig.
variables. Then proceed with making predictions
when there is an area of 225 Ha. 1 Regres 165593 165593
1200,
sion 7503,52 1 7503,52 ,000b
241
Prediction Results 5 5

Residu 110373 137967

8
al 64,575 0,572

Total 166697
4868,10 9
0
In figure 2.5 we get a prediction when there are 225
a. Dependent Variable: Y
Ha will produce at least 27717.8 trees. The
prediction is obtained by using the Regression b. Predictors: (Constant), X
formula that was previously obtained by a
regression test that is Y = 852.8 + 119.5X. Based on the ANOVA table from SPSS, the
significance value of 0,000b is equal to the
Then calculate the error error from the prediction significance value generated by the R program,
results that is with the formula: 1,149 e-09, where the value is the same as that of
the SPSS.
(original value-predicted value) / (original value) X
100 Coefficientsa

And the resulting error is 4.4% so this regression Standar

equation model has an error of 4.4%, where the dized
error is calculated to be very small or this Unstandardized Coeffici
regression model is a good model. Coefficients ents

Compare with SPSS Std.

Model B Error Beta t Sig.
Then the results will be compared from using the R
1 (Const 1722,2 800,11 2,15
program using SPSS. The results obtained using the ,064
ant) 64 1 3
SPSS program are as follows.
X 116,19 34,6
3,354 ,997 ,000
2 44

a. Dependent Variable: Y

Based on the Coefficients table there is a difference
in the Constant value / constant that is equal to
1722.264 when compared to the value obtained at
R that is 852.8. The intercept variable is also
different, the SPSS is 116.19 smaller than the one
in the R program that is 119.4.
5. CONCLUSION
This study studies how the influence of land area
on the production of carpentry of Tebangan A
Kayu Rimba. It turns out that the area of land
greatly influences the amount of carpentry wood
production. In this study, a regression equation is
obtained, namely Y = 852.8 + 119.4 X, which
means that each hectare can produce about 972.2
trees. From this research can be an illustration of
how to produce maximum production with existing
land.
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