Feasibility Study

Load Forecasting using Machine Learning

The world is moving towards an age of unprecedented peace and prosperity, owing to an ever-
growing record of scientific accomplishments in the fields of engineering, medicine and
infrastructure. As such the world is tumbling towards overpopulation. An exponentially
growing population corresponds to an exponentially growing demand for energy, food and
resources.
Electrical energy is the fulcrum for a more sustainable future. Electricity is noiseless, clean and
versatile. It forms the backbone of present-day mankind’s technology.
The world is moving towards an ever more connected society with data flow becoming almost
instantaneous and data storage abilities more effective than ever before. As such a need has
arisen for a more connected system for the Generation, Utilization and Transmission of
electrical energy, A need for a “Smart Grid”.
Grid refers to the electrical grid. It is the sum network of all transmission lines, substations,
transformers and others that deliver electricity from the generating station to the load (Eg: A
home or business).
The cardinal feature of demand-side management in smart grids is load forecasting, as it allows
the operators to make the most efficient and effective decisions possible for a scenario.
Load forecasting is an electrical engineering concept wherein the time of activation of loads
are accurately predicted so that generation and utilization of electrical energy by a substation
is done more efficiently and reduces wastage.
“It is defined as the prediction of electrical power required to meet the short term, medium term
or long-term demands.”
Efficient forecasting results in a decrease in cost of generation, transmission and distribution
of electricity thus reducing the cost of electricity for the demand side user as well. Load
forecasting will also help reduce environmental pollution by making the utilization of fossil
fuels such as coal and diesel more efficient by only activating generators as and when required
by the demand side as compared to inefficiently manually turning on and off the generating
station.
Electrical load forecasting is an important process for electrical generation and distribution
companies as it helps them maximize revenues and minimize losses. It is essential for planning
the capacity and operations in order to reliably supply all consumers with the required energy
with almost no excess or deficits, thus eliminating unnecessary costs.
Load forecasting is of 3 types classified based on duration of the study, namely short-term load
forecasting (STLF, it ranges from a few hours to a few days), medium-term load forecasting
(MTLF, ranges from several days up to a few months), and long-term load forecasting (LTLF,
ranges from greater than or equal to one year).
This study will primarily focus on STLF. This is a particularly challenging problem as
decisions need to be made within a very short span of time with minim error.
A paper published by Hung Nguyen in an IEEE conference (2017) uses Autoregressive Moving
Average (ARMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) for
load forecasting. This study using ARMA and SARIMA provided a mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE) of 9.13% and 4.36% respectively.
A study conducted using a LSTM-based algorithm has been observed to produce a mean
absolute error percentage of about 2%.
In this project, we will be testing the use of a Machine Learning algorithm that uses
Cosine Similarities to perform the load forecasting study. For matters of practicality and
originality, a novel system of generation will be adopted to train and test the algorithm
which will provide a better understanding towards its real-world application and
performance. In addition to this, 2 already-existing datasets will used. An understanding has
also been reached with GASCO (ADNOC Gas Processing), UAE for the procurement of data
regarding their use of electricity and loads for this study.
A comparative study will also be made to study the efficiency of the Cosine Similarities based
algorithm as compared to that of its LSTM based counterpart and the ARMA and SARIMA
techniques of computation as well.
The field of Electrical Engineering, particularly Generation, Transmission and Distribution
companies will greatly benefit from a more efficient and resource-prudent system for load
forecasting. The general public will also benefit from the lowered cost of electricity which will
enable a greater number of under-privileged communities adopt electricity and attain a more
comfortable, environmentally sustainable lifestyle.
If this study proves to be positive for our algorithm, a number of key players in the
modern-day energy sector would look forward to its product-level development. It’ll play
a crucial role in sectors such as Smart Grid, Home Automation, Renewable Energy,
Sustainable Development.
Some interested parties in India would include Bangalore Electricity Supply Company
Limited (BESCOM), Bangalore, Karnataka, North Delhi Power Limited (NDPL), New
Delhi, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (IITK), Indian Institute of Technology
Madras (IITM), Power Grid Corporation of India and Ministry of New and Renewable
Energy.
This concludes the feasibility report for the subject of load forecasting using machine learning
algorithm.