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Guidance for Stock Market Investing Exclusively for TrulyRichClub Members


Note: To understand the Stocks Update, first read Bo’s e-book, My Maid Invests in the Stock Market.
Click here www.TrulyRichClub.com to download now.

Volume 11, No. 15 August 2019

EMBRACE UNCERTAINTY

Once again, another scam hit the country.


This time, it was a religious group called Kapa, promising a thirty percent return every month for a “donation” of at
least P10,000 to P2 million. That’s an insane promise of 360 percent a year. Sadly, according to the claim of its leaders,
five million people have already invested in their company. If you do the math, Kapa needs to earn P15 billion every single
month to pay off all their “donors,” or P180 billion a year.
Where would they get the money? Upon investigation, most of their businesses were tiny sole proprietorships,
such as a bakeshop, a convenience store, a gasoline station, etc. Their biggest companies were a hospital and a college,
but their combined profits for the year was around P6 million—very far from the P180 billion they would need to pay
their investors. (Just for a point of comparison, SM, one of the biggest companies in the country, earned only P37 billion
last year.)
Sadly, Kapa won’t be the last scam in the country. As long as Filipinos lack financial education, there will always be
one sprouting every couple of years. And many will lose their money.
What makes this group so bothersome? They were a religious people who believed that God will prosper them.
Their members were good, kind, and prayerful people. But very financially ignorant.
Why are scams so attractive?
Because of “certainty.”

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 1


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As wise investors, we must embrace


a certain level of uncertainty.
Run Away!
Warning: If a guy or gal invites you to put your hard-earned money in a business or investment, promises a certain
profit, and that guy or gal uses the word “Guaranteed,” I have two words to tell you: Run away!
When it comes to the world of investing, there’s no such thing.
When we invest in the stock market, all we can do is decrease the uncertainty. How do we do this? We choose
gigantic companies that already have a proven track record. (That’s why in our SAM Table, we don’t recommend new
companies doing their IPOs or Initial Public Offering.) We dig into gigantic companies, value their assets, project how
much money they’ll earn in the next few years, their past performance, their current strategies, and how we think their
leaders perform.
But as a rule, there will always be a certain measure of uncertainty. That’s supposed to be a good thing. If there
was no uncertainty, there would be no volatility in the stock market. And if there was no volatility, we wouldn’t make any
profits.
As wise investors, we must embrace a certain level of uncertainty.
For example, we don’t know when our stocks will reach the Target Price in our SAM Table. Six months? One year?
Three years? Five years? We don’t know. But as long-term investors, we don’t mind waiting. The longer it takes, the better
for us, because we can keep buying the company every month while it’s cheap.

Happy investing!

May your dreams come true,


Bo Sanchez

P.S. Through the TrulyRichClub, we may not be able to stop scams from happening, but we can lessen the number of
people who will get duped by them—because through the Club, more and more Filipinos are learning the slow but steady
way of creating their wealth. The burning mission of the TrulyRichClub is more urgent than ever: To help good people
become rich.

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 2


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COL FINANCIAL’S 2019 MID-YEAR MARKET OUTLOOK:


Key Takeaways
By Mike Viñas

On July 27, 2019, COL Financial Group, Inc. held its mid-year market briefing. I would like to share with you some
of the key points discussed.

1. Philippine Stock Exchange Index is in a bull market and on track


to reach COL’s 8,600 year-end target.
• Factors that caused the market to go down in 2018 have
reversed, namely:
• Inflation has gone down to 2.7 percent from a peak of around
six percent;
• Food prices have gone down substantially from going up
last year;
• Oil prices have also gone down, which caused transportation
costs to go down;
• Inflation is seen to stay within the two to four percent range;
• Due to lower inflation, Philippine bond rates went down from
8.3 percent to 4.7 percent;
• The peso last year hit a peak of P54.33 to the U.S. dollar, but
it has gone down now to the P50 to P51 level;
• Foreign investors sold their investments in the Philippine
market last year, but they are coming back to reinvest.

2. U.S. Fed rate hikes — from two rate hikes to a possible rate cut:
• Fed from being hawkish in its policy to being dovish (accommodating)
• December 2018: raised rates for the fourth time in 2018
• January 2019: hinted on a rate hike pause
• June 2019: hinted possible rate cut in July
• Dovish policy of the Fed is favorable to the Philippines because it gives the BSP to have more space to cut rates.

3. BSP has more room for monetary easing:


• January 2019: 200 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut, no rate cut
• Today: BSP reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and the reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis
points; implied another 25 basis point cut for interest rates and possible reserve requirement cuts

4. Lesser risk domestically:


• Passage of the government budget in April should cause economic growth to pick up in the second half of the
year.
• Yield curve is no longer inverted: the ten-year rate is actually lower than the short term rate.
• This is caused by banks having tight liquidity.

5. We’re seeing attractive valuations in the market:


• The PSEi five-year price earnings ratio average is 16.9X compared to 18.7X at the start of last year.
• Even if the market has gone up substantially, the market continues to trade at 16.9X, which is a very
reasonable level.
• Most PSEi members are trading below their ten-year average historical average P/E’s.

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 3


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6. Market will experience volatility due the risks that continue to remain:
• Poor economic globally as seen in the Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index which is below 50 (if
below 50 manufacturers are pessimistic and they won’t expand).
• Global Business Confidence has also deteriorated because of policy uncertainty—US and China trade
policies, as well as trade partners of U.S. with other countries in the world.

7. Will more accommodating monetary policies be enough to address growth concerns?


• ECB: from first possible rate hike in September to possible rate cut; possible resumption of QE
• Bank of England: ready to cut rates assuming no deal Brexit
• Bank of Japan: ready to cut rates and increase asset buying to achieve two percent inflation target
• People Bank of China: plenty of arsenal in the fiscal and monetary policy toolkit to deploy if trade war worsens

8. Philippines’ “twin deficits” still a concern


• Budget deficit: -3.2 % (%GDP) due to spending in infrastructure
• Current account deficit: -2.8% (%GDP)
• The risk the peso will weaken again: foreign investors see it negatively

9. Other near-term headwinds


• MSCI EM Index Rebalancing: weighting of Saudi Arabia and China will be increased, and thus foreign
investors following the MSCI EM index may sell Philippine stocks to make way for the weighting increase
of Saudi Arabia and China.
• Second-quarter earnings of some companies could still disappoint: Due to the delay of the budget passage,
we are bracing for a weak second-quarter in terms of a weak GDP growth, and because of this there may be
companies coming out with weak earnings in the second quarter

SUMMARY

1. Factors that negatively affected the Philippine stock market


last year, such as inflation, interest rates, the peso, and
foreign fund flows, have reversed. Thus, the bull market will
most likely continue.
• Along with falling inflation, the BSP has more room to
loosen its monetary policy given a more dovish Fed.
• With the government’s delayed passage of the 2019
budget last April, a faster GDP growth is expected in
the second half of the year.
• Relative to their historical average, valuation of stocks
remain attractive

2. However, the bull market is seen to be volatile


• Global economic outlook remains poor. Even if central banks are loosening their monetary policies, it is still yet
to be seen if they will be successful in addressing economic growth concerns.
• Domestically, the Philippines will continue to be negatively affected from an above-average budget deficit and
a current account deficit. These were the two factors that caused the weakness in the peso last year.
• In the short term, stocks could be weak due to the MSCI EM rebalancing and disappointing second-quarter
earnings from selected companies.

3. Given expectations of heightened volatility, we advise investors to manage the size of their investments (fixed
comfortable amounts) and invest for the long term through our SAM recommendations.

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 4


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I hope this outlook gave you a good idea where the market is headed and how you will respond this second-half of
2019. Please be guided accordingly on your investments.

Happy investing!

*Source: COL Fund Source Research

TRC STARTER STOCKS GUIDE AUGUST 2019


The figures below (P50,000 and P250,000) are simply our recommendations, designed for safety and less volatility (up
and down movements). But if you so choose, even if your money hasn’t reached yet the figures indicated, you can buy the
other stocks listed in the SAM Table, provided you’re psychologically prepared to stay calm through the volatility.
For more clarity, we outline here two baby steps you can take to grow your investments if you’re a newbie investor:
Baby Step #1: If your portfolio is below P50,000, buy Philequity Index Fund first before you buy specific stocks. It’s less
volatile than any stock and you also get to invest the entire amount that you put into your account, unlike in stocks where
there is a minimum board lot.
Baby Step #2: If your portfolio is between P50,000 to P250,000, buy our recommended starter stocks below (first
table). Each month, we specify what these two or three stocks are, based on what we believe are the most stable and least
volatile of our SAM stocks (second table below).
Once again, these are only our suggestions. If you feel you can handle the up-and-down roller-coaster ride of our
other stocks, then by all means, buy our other SAM stocks. They are all great companies that will do well over the long term.

Portfolio Amount Recommendation

P50,000 and below Philequity PSE Index Fund

Starter Stocks:
P50,000 – P250,000
MPI, MBT, DNL

P250,000 and above Stocks from the SAM Table

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 5


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Here are our SAM and Mutual Fund Tables as of August 2, 2019 closing:

Stock Current Price Buy Below Price Target Price Recommendation Max%

AP 34.80 36.00 48.00 Continue buying 10%

CEB 93.40 106.40 141.82 Continue buying 5%

CHIB 26.85 27.40 36.50 Continue buying 5%

DNL 10.20 10.28 13.70 Continue buying 10%

MBT 75.00 75.00 100.00 Continue buying 10%

MPI 4.80 6.00 8.00 Continue Buying 10%

SHLPH 38.50 42.00 56.00 Continue buying 5%

SMPH 37.60 38.00 44.67 Continue buying 15%

TEL 1150.00 1275.00 1500.00 Continue buying 10%

AC 950.00 935.00 1101.00 Stop buying 15%

ALI 51.00 48.45 57.00 Stop buying 15%

BDO 150.00 133.45 157.00 Stop buying 10%

FGEN 26.15 21.92 27.40 Stop buying 10%

FLI 1.90 1.76 2.20 Stop buying 10%

GTCAP 928.50 893.00 1190.00 Stop buying 10%

MEG 6.24 6.12 7.20 Stop buying 10%

RLC 26.60 24.65 29.00 Stop buying 10%

SECB 180.00 153.75 205.00 Stop buying 10%

SM 1000.00 969.00 1140.00 Stop buying 15%

NAVPS WHEN CURRENT


ESTIMATED
FUND CODE FUND BOUGHT NAVPS ACTION TO TAKE
RETURN
(01/12/16) (08/02/19)

XPEEQ Philequity Fund 31.0639 39.7871 28.08% Continue buying

XPEIF Philequity Index Fund 4.2155 5.4362 28.96% Continue buying

XSLEQ Sunlife Prosperity Equity Fund 3.4805 4.451 27.88% Continue buying

Mike Viñas is a stock market investment trainer, Certified Securities Representative, and Certified Investment
Solicitor of COL Financial Group, Inc.

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 6


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2018 Top Winners of the TrulyRichClub’s Stocks


STOCK TIME ESTIMATED PRICE ESTIMATED
STOCKS
SYMBOL RECOMMENDED TIME HELD RANGE RETURN

May 2016 to 29.07


Unionbank UBP 24 months P59.00 to P91.40
May 2018 percent
June 2011 to January 28.63
Metrobank MBT 42 months P50.06 to P93.94
2018 (partially sold) percent
December 2016 to 11.21
Meralco MER 16 months P275.00 to P307.00
April 2018 percent
July 2017 to January P1230.00 to 10.47
GT Capital GTCAP 6 months
2018 (partially sold) P1350.00 percent

Top Past Winners of TrulyRichClub’s Stocks


STOCK TIME ESTIMATED PRICE ESTIMATED
STOCKS
SYMBOL RECOMMENDED TIMEHELD RANGE RETURN

June 2011 to February 2012 P15.09 to


 Ayala Land ALI 9 Months 35 percent
(3rd week) P21.65
Bank of The
February 2012 to November P68.45 to 34.29
Philippine BPI 10 Months
2012 (4th week) P91.00 percent
Islands
SM Prime February 2012 to December P12.48 to 27.75
SMPH 10 Months
Holdings 2012 (1st week) P17.00 percent
January 2013 to April 2013 P268.00 to 28.05
Meralco MER 3 Months
P377.00 percent
32.92
First Phlippine P63.18 to
FPH June 2011 to June 2013 25 Months percent
Holdings P95.20
percent
JG Summit P25.75 to 39.96
JGS February 12 to October 2013 18 Months
Holdings P43.50 percent

D&L Industries DNL February 2013 to April 2014 14 Months P6.45 to P10.00 44 percent

May 2016 to P59.00 to 29.07


Unionbank UBP 24 months
May 2018 P91.40 percent

June 2011 to January 2018 P50.06 to 28.63


Metrobank MBT 42 months
(partially sold) P93.94 percent
P89.60 to 24 percent
Banco De Oro BDO April 2013 to August 2014 16 Months
P93.00 percent

(Disclaimer: Past performance doesn’t guarantee that you’ll have the exact same results in the future. After all, your earnings depend on
the market’s performance.)

Stocks Update Volume 11, No. 15 • August 2019 7

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