BULLET TRACER

A Simulation Tool in Identifying the Possible Source of Stray Bullets in the Philippines

A Thesis by

ALBERT P. GUEVARRA

Bachelor of Science in Computer Science

Submitted to the Graduate Programs

Technological Institute of the Philippines – Manila

In Partial Fulfillment

Of the Requirements for the Degree

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN COMPUTER SCIENCE

March 2018
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APPROVAL SHEET

This thesis entitled BULLET TRACER: A Simulation Tool in Identifying the Possible Source of Stray

Bullets in the Philippines, prepared and submitted by Albert P. Guevarra, in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for the degree Master of Science in Computer Science is hereby accepted.

Ms. Jheanel E. Estrada

Research Paper Adviser

Dr. Alexander A. Hernandez

Chair, Defense Panel

Mr. Xander L. Faustino Ms. Jenelyn M. Aranas

Panel Member Panel Member

Accepted and approved for the conferral of the degree Master of Science in Computer Science.

Dr. Charlemagne G. Laviña

Dean, Graduate Programs
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

APPROVAL SHEET ........................................................................................................................... ii

DEDICATION ..................................................................................................................................... iii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..................................................................................................................... iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................................... v

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................. vii

LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................... viii

ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................... ix

1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background of the Study ................................................................................................. 1

1.2 Objectives of the Study .................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Significance of the Study ................................................................................................. 2

1.4 Scope and Delimitations .................................................................................................. 2

2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................... 3

2.1 Review of Related Literature ........................................................................................... 3

2.2 Concept of the Study ....................................................................................................... 3

2.3 Definition of Terms ........................................................................................................... 4

3 OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................... 5

3.1 Materials ........................................................................................................................... 5

3.1.1 Software ........................................................................................................... 5

3.1.2 Hardware .......................................................................................................... 5

3.1.3 Data .................................................................................................................. 5

3.2 Methods …........................................................................................................................ 5

3.2.1 Experimental design ......................................................................................... 5

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3.2.2 Procedures for the different phases ................................................................. 5

3.2.3 Evaluation ......................................................................................................... 6

4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION.......................................................................................................... 7

4.1 Results by phase of study ................................................................................................ 7

4.2 Verification studies ........................................................................................................... 7

5 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................... 8

5.1 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 8

5.2 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 8

5.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 8

REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................... 9

APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................................... 10

CURRICULUM VITAE ......................................................................................................................... 11

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Number of Victims in Metro Manila (Vallarta, 2015) ......................................................................... 3

Table 2: Table 2: Cities with most number of stray bullet cases (Vallarta, 2015) ........................................... 3

Table 3: Bullet drop for different bullets over two distances. In situations involving short ranges of fire, a

bullet can be considered as having followed (Gardner & Bevel, 2009, p. 157) .................................... 12

Table 4: Trajectory aerodynamic parameters (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris, 2008, p. 73)

............................................................................................................................................................ 21

Table 5: Initial flight parameters of examined test cases (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris,

2008, p. 73) ......................................................................................................................................... 22

Table 6: Software requirements ................................................................................................................... 25

Table 7: Hardware requirements ................................................................................................................ 26

Table 8 Data requirements .......................................................................................................................... 26

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Number of Stray Bullet Victims During New Year (Vallarta, 2015).................................................. 2

Figure 2: Sex of Stray Bullet Victims from 2010 – 2015 (Vallarta, 2015) ....................................................... 2

Figure 3: Proportion of Global Firearms Ownership (UNODC, 2015) ............................................................ 7

Figure 4: Schematic representation of a cartridge and its elements (F. Schütz, Groupe de recherche et

d’information su, 2011, p. 49) ................................................................................................................ 8

Figure 5: Stray bullet injuries - United States of America, March, 2008 – February, 2009 (Alvazzi del

Frate, 2012) ........................................................................................................................................... 9

Figure 6: Trajectory of bullet fired horizontally (http://www.loadammo.com, 2002, p. 1) .............................. 12

Figure 7: Trajectory of bullet fired slightly upward (http://www.loadammo.com, 2002, p. 1) ........................ 13

Figure 8: Calculations for Euler’s method using Microsoft Excel (Wade, 2011, p. 9) ................................... 14

Figure 9: Formulas in the calculation based on Euler’s method (Wade, 2011, p. 9) .................................... 15

Figure 10: Bullet trajectory fired from Remington 30-06 rifle at 0.436o above the horizontal to hit a target 1m

off the ground and 1000m away. (Wade, 2011, p. 6) ........................................................................... 16

Figure 11: Bullet trajectory fired from a Remington 30-06 rifle at of 0.357 above the horizontal to hit a target

1m off the ground and 1000m away. (Wade, 2011, p. 6) ..................................................................... 16

Figure 12: The Symbol Definition and Units used by Author. (Wade, 2011, p. 8) ........................................ 17

Figure 13: 7.62 mm ammunition by Match, 0.30 diameter caliber typical of small bullet types (Gkritzapis,

Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris, 2008) ....................................................................................... 18

Figure 14: Geometrical and physical data of 7.62 mm bullet type (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, &

Margaris, 2008, p. 71).......................................................................................................................... 18

Figure 15: Fixed and no-roll coordinate systems for analysis of projectile trajectory (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis,

Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris, 2008, p. 71) .......................................................................................... 19

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Figure 16: Conceptual Framework............................................................................................................... 23

Figure 17 - Knowledge Discovery Process or Knowledge Discovery in Databases (Indarto, 2013, p. 1)..... 27

Figure 18 - Sample Data Set ....................................................................................................................... 28

Figure 19: System Architecture................................................................................................................... 31

Figure 20: Screenshots................................................................................................................................ 33

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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study

Random or celebratory gunfire is described as the haphazard firing of guns into the air which

commonly occurs in festivities related to holidays. Problems related to random gunfire are discernible from

other shooting categories because (1) it is strictly done outdoors; (2) it is usually not related to other criminal

incidents such as robberies; and (3) the firing of the weapons is not intended to cause injuries (Mazerolle,

Watkins, Rogan, & Frank, 1999)

In various countries, people display excitement by discharging their weapons into the air during

parties related to New Year, birthdays and wedding celebrations and even during funerals as respect for the

dead. Although not meant to cause injuries, these shootings sometimes result in casualties. In the United

States, celebratory shootings represented 5% of all stray bullet injuries in 2008-2009. In Italy, during the

same year, eight people suffered injuries with one resulting in death because of celebratory shootings.

(Alvazzi del Frate, 2012)

In the Philippines, from 2012 to 2015, children have been killed or injured by indiscriminate firing

during Christmas and New Year revelries. Data from the Department of Health’s National Epidemiology

Center revealed that in December 31, 2015, two of the four stray bullet victims were nine-year-old girls. In

2014 New Year celebrations, a three-month-old child was pronounced dead on arrival at a hospital in Abra

after being hit in the head by a stray bullet. In 2013, a seven-year-old girl from Caloocan City died from a

wound in the head caused by a bullet while in 2012 a young girl was struck and killed by a bullet in the neck

in Tondo. (Vallarta, 2015)

The number of stray bullet victims is on a decreasing trend. From forty-four (44) cases in 2010, the

number of victims dropped to thirteen (13) during holiday celebrations of 2015, DOH-NEC data show. (see

Figure 1)
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Figure 1: Number of Stray Bullet Victims During New Year (Vallarta, 2015)

From the New Year celebration of 2010 to 2015, majority of the victims are male.

Figure 2: Sex of Stray Bullet Victims from 2010 – 2015

(Vallarta, 2015)
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Table 1: Number of Victims in Metro Manila (Vallarta, 2015)

Table 2: Table 2: Cities with most number of stray bullet cases (Vallarta, 2015)

In the last five years, there had been one hundred ninety-six (196) reported stray bullet injuries in

Philippines according to the Philippine National Police’s (PNP) Directorate for Investigative and Detective

Management. By the PNP’s own admission, it is difficult to trace the source of stray bullets that injure or kill

people. (Dizon, 2014)

The provisions of the Data Privacy Act of 2012 will be observed in the conduct of this study.
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1.2 Objectives of the Study

The foremost objective of this study is to design and develop a simulation tool to assist the Philippine

National Police in the investigation of the sources of stray bullets.

Specifically, the objectives of this research are as follows:

1. Design an interactive simulation tool that will show the possible sources of stray bullets by:

a. Calculating the trajectory of the stray bullet using the angle of impact, bullet type and victim’s

position as parameters and considering air resistance, air pressure, temperature, muzzle

velocity as contributory factors;

b. Identifying the distance of the shooter to the victim;

c. Stating the possible x, y coordinates of the shooter;

2. Give possible accuracy rate of the source of stray bullets by using RapidMiner.

1.3 Significance of the Study

Once the study is finished and implemented, it will be significant to the following:

1. Philippine National Police (PNP). Once fully implemented, this simulation tool will aid the law

enforcement operatives in their investigation of stray bullet incidents.

2. The General Public. Since this simulation tool will provide an additional tool for the PNP in

resolving incidences of stray bullet injuries, it will provide a deterrent to the indiscriminate firing

of weapons thereby reducing the risk of injuries for the general public.
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3. Future researchers. This study can be a good starting point for further studies in this field. Before

the implementation of this tool in different parts of the country, its effectiveness must first be

known. The findings in this study will be important for further researchers.

4. Development of an Expert System or Artificial Intelligence which simulates intelligent behavior

in computers.

1.4 Scope and Delimitations

The study covers the development of a simulation tool for determining the possible sources of stray

bullets by calculating the bullet’s trajectory. The research considered the angle of bullet impact, the bullet

type and the victim’s position as parameters for calculating the trajectory. Contributory factors in bullet

trajectories such as air resistance, air pressure, temperature, and muzzle velocity are also taken into

consideration.

For this study, the computation of the trajectory only applies to brand new rounds of ammunition or

to rounds with standard powder components.

Also, the simulation of the trajectory of the bullet is limited to cases wherein the bullet(s) are recovered

at the scene of the crime.

Furthermore, the simulation is designed only as a tool to help in the investigation of stray bullet

incidents. It is not intended to solve the crime in itself.

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2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1 Review of Related Literature

According to (Hancock, Hendrick, Hornick, & Paradis, 2006) , guns are tools and as in any other

tools, they have inherent advantages and disadvantages. The firearms may not be truly user friendly with

proper maintenance and operation by a person who are really training to use it, this firearm can be used for

its purpose with the right accuracy and safety.

The actual firearms availability shows to be overestimated and juvenile are vulnerable to the

attraction of carrying firearms and becoming inclined to handling imitation in the street crime (Marshall, Webb,

& Tilley, 2005).

According to (Klein, 2016), firearms is defined as a movable and easy to carry weapon that is

intended to launch a propelled metal projectile via explosion at high speeds using a metal tube. The author

also discussed that there are three (3) general types of firearms which are 1) handguns 2) rifles 3) shotguns

and they are usually used for hunting, self-defense and or target shooting. According to (Karp A. , 2011) the

world’s most number of firearms are owned privately which include an improvised craft guns together with

handguns, shotguns, rifles, and machine guns.

According to the (UNODC, 2015) on their most recent study on the distribution of firearms around

the world as shown on Figure below (Figure 3) depicts that there are about eight hundred seventy-five (875)

million approximate firearms existing as of 2007 and three quarters of this was owned by civilians, and other

are believed to be in control of the military and services of the law enforcement agencies.
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Figure 3: Proportion of Global Firearms Ownership (UNODC, 2015)

In the Philippines, there is an estimated 3,900,000 licensed and unlicensed, privately-owned guns

(Karp A. Civilian firearms - Annexe online, 2007). The military, on the other hand, has 449,350 guns (Karp

A. , Trickle and Torrent: State stockpiles, 2006) while the police has 139,043 firearms (Karp A., 2012). There

were an estimated 6,963 deaths related to gun use with 36 unintentional gun deaths. (Waiselfiz, 2015)

Bullet Characteristics and Construction

The round is the rudimentary element of firearm ammunition. It contains the projectile, propellant,

casing and primer (Fig. 1). The propellant is ignited by the primer enclosed inside the casing, which serves

as the force that pushes the bullet. The bullet is discharged from the casing upon shooting and hits the mark

(Powers & Delo, 2013)

Caliber pertains to the bullet measurement of width in hundredths of an inch and is not dependent

on construction, velocity and mass (Hollerman & Fackler, 1995). Most ammunitions are normally composed

of lead and are sometimes enclosed within a metallic covering. Ammunitions used by civilians normally have
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muted points, which reduce force of the bullet and results in an enlarged slug at impact. Hollow endpoints

contain a hole inside the covering of the tip of the bullet. Bullet points are not enclosed by a metal sheathing,

and the metal center of the projectile at the tip is bare (Stefanopoulos, Filippakis, Soupiou, & Pazarakiotis,

2014). Because of the 1899 Hague Convention, bullets designed by the military to expand are banned and

thus shielded by a jacket and do not disfigure (Maiden, 2009). In contrast to rifle and handgun ammunition,

rounds for shotgun composed of a big, solitary projectile or numerous bits enclosed within a case

(Stefanopoulos, Filippakis, Soupiou, & Pazarakiotis, 2014).

Figure 4: Schematic representation of a cartridge and its elements (F. Schütz, Groupe de
recherche et d’information su, 2011, p. 49)
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Stray Bullets, Random Gunfire and Celebratory Shootings

(Alvazzi del Frate, 2012) stated that it may be difficult to distinguish ‘intentional’ injuries from

‘unintentional’ injuries when it comes to stray bullets though in most cases they are classified as not

intentional in crime and health statistics. In the United States, an examination of 284 stray bullet injuries

reveals that majority (59 per cent) is associated with violence while a combined 18 per cent is related to

accidents due to gun maintenance, sports shooting and celebratory gunfire. (see Figure 3)

Figure 5: Stray bullet injuries - United States of America, March, 2008 –

February, 2009 (Alvazzi del Frate, 2012)

(Alvazzi del Frate, 2012) further stated that the stray bullet problem is of grave concern in some Latin

American nations. Media reports survey and data from the Colombian National Police show that at least

1,900 stray bullet injuries occurred between 2001 and 2011. In Brazil, indiscriminately fired bullets account

for 9.4 % of non-death injuries in Rio de Janeiro in first six months of 2011.

(Mazerolle, Watkins, Rogan, & Frank, 1999) for their part, stated that random gunfire is treated as a

problem in many U.S. urban areas. It usually involves people consuming alcohol, watching sports events
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then firing their weapons outside into the air in celebration. People also have a tendency to fire their guans

during New Year’s Eve, Fourth of July and other holidays.

As (Watkins C. , Mazerolle, Rogan, & Frank, 2002) stated, police branches in the United States of

America have carried out a number of activities to curve out gun problems related to serious criminal activity.

Different law administration organizations have also devised programs that focus on the random gunfire

problem.

Ballistics

(Vincent J. M. DiMaio, 2015) defines ballistics as the science of the projectile motions. Ballistics is

divided into three categories namely interior, exterior, and terminal ballistics. Internal ballistics pertains to the

analysis of the bullet inside the gun while external ballistics, on the other hand, is the study of the projectile

flying through the air; and terminating ballistics, the study of infiltration of solids by the missile. Wound

ballistics is a sector of terminal ballistics focused with the after-effects of the bullet in tissue

The extent of injuries caused by a gun bullet and the likelihood of causing injuries or death, is affected

by the characteristics of the ammo used. These specifications include the size of bullets, the type of tip,

velocity and pattern of flight. These elements affect the trajectory of bullets inside the physique and possible

damage to the tissues, organs, and bones. Generally, more rapid the movement of the bullet means higher

chances of it causing lethal injuries (Alvazzi del Frate, 2012)

Wound Ballistics

“Wound” ballistics is a word that refers to a subsection of terminal ballistics, denoting to the properties

of slugs on live tissues. The disturbing effects of bullets and the retaining abilities of the muscles change the

effects, which form the interface of projectile-tissue. The knowledge of this portent is significant for the

deducing radiologist as it concludes the path of the bullet (Hanna, Shuaib, Han, Mehta, & Khosa, 2015)
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Trajectory
A vital part that requires deep examination is the kinematics of the projectile that is being discharged.

Though most bullets will be effective over a very limited range, the struggle starts to rise dramatically as the

remoteness to the aim increases. Even atmospheric factors like wind and humidity can affect the

accurateness of the shot. It is mentioned that a shooter is required to take into consideration factors like

Coriolis Effect and the arc of the land to get an accurate shot. In the investigational setup created, no attempt

to shoot people at long distances were performed (Nath & Levinson, 2014)

Various factors affect the understanding of trajectory of bullet: angle, air resistance, temperature and

air pressure, muzzle velocity, drag coefficient and bullet shape. The above-mentioned factors underwrite the

accurateness of the ammunition making contact with the chosen mark. (Wade, 2011)

Trajectory describes a bullet’s flight path. A curved trajectory is exhibited by long range shots

because of longer flight time which allows gravitational force to affect the bullet fired. On the other hand, the

trajectory of short range shots can be measured as a straight track because the duration of flight is

comparatively short and the gravitational drop can be ignored. (Gardner & Bevel, 2009)
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Table 3: Differences for two bullets dropped over 2 distances. (Gardner & Bevel, 2009, p. 157)

A bullet's trajectory is stated simply as the trail the slug takes from the gun to the target. The path

is not a straight line as the bullet begins to drop the moment it exits the barrel because of gravity's force and

air resistance. If fired horizontally, the trajectory is illustrated in Figure 6. If the gun is tipped up slightly, the

trajectory will resemble Figure 7.

Figure 6: Trajectory of bullet fired horizontally (http://www.loadammo.com, 2002, p. 1)

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Figure 7: Trajectory of bullet fired slightly upward (http://www.loadammo.com, 2002, p. 1)

The bullet travels the sight line near the muzzle and again at the sighting-in point. A common

misunderstanding is that the bullet surges upwards when it is discharged from the barrel and then returns to

hit the mark. The bullet only goes up because of a tipped up barrel. The bullet does not really rise above the

straight line, but drops constantly until it hits the target. (http://www.loadammo.com, 2002)

The following discussion in a study by (Wade, 2011) illustrates trajectory calculation and intended to

answer the problem of striking a target 1000m away and 1m above ground using a Remington 30-06 rifle in

27.2o C weather. The mass of the bullet is 150 grains, muzzle velocity is 887 m/s, diameter of 0.008 m and

the shooter at sea level:

x(t) and y(t) signify the flat displacement and straight up dislodgment of the ammunition at time t.

Also define vx(t) and vy(t) to be the straight and perpendicular speed of the slug at the time t. f ’(t) is used to
𝑃
denote function f(t’)’s derivative with respect to t. Density of air formula 𝜌 = 353.03 is used to calculate
𝑇

the drag,

1
𝐷= 𝜌𝐶𝐴 (1)
2

where C is the coefficient drag of the ammunition and A is the ammunition area head in m2.

The renowned equation in motion is now used for a body moving over a field of gravitation to see:
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𝐷
𝑣 ′ 𝑥 (𝑡) = − (𝑀) 𝑣 ∙ 𝑣𝑥 (𝑡) (2)

𝐷
𝑣 ′ 𝑦 (𝑡) = −𝑔 − 𝑀 𝑣 ⋅ 𝑣𝑡 (𝑡) (3)

where M is the slug mass in kilograms, g is the gravitational force acceleration and v is the degree of the

vector velocity. Using the speed of the slug given in the question we can compute our original conditions:

𝑥 ′ (0) = 𝑣𝑥 (0) = 𝑉 cos 𝜃 (4)

𝑦 ′ (0) = 𝑣𝑦 (0) = 𝑉 sin 𝜃 (5)

𝑥(0) = 0 (6)

𝑦(0) = 1 (7)

Now the method of Euler gives:

𝐹(𝑡 + Δ𝑡) ≈ 𝐹(𝑡) + Δ𝑡𝐹′(𝑡) (8)

F(t) is one of the functions x(t), y(t), vx(t) or vy(t). A solver in Excel Spreadsheet is then used and a estimate

and check technique to identify the value of 𝜃 , the horizontal angle above, which pushes the bullet to hit the

center of the mark. The Spreadsheet in Excel is given below:

Figure 8: Euler’s method calculation using Microsoft Excel (Wade, 2011, p. 9)

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Figure 9: Formulas in the calculation based on Euler’s method (Wade, 2011, p. 9)

In order to strike the target specified in the question, the rifleman will have to adjust the aim of the

Remington 30-06 rifle at 0.436o above sea level. The outcome was lesser than the anticipated 30o above the

parallel.

To the question at hand, a vivid change between approaches that take into consideration the air

resistance compared to approaches that disregards the effect of air resistance. Figures 10 and 11 are

provided to highlight these differences.

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Figure 10: Bullet trajectory fired from Remington 30-06 rifle at 0.436o above the horizontal to hit a target 1m
off the ground and 1000m away. (Wade, 2011, p. 6)

Figure 11: Bullet trajectory of bullet from a Remington rifle 30-06e at of 0.357 directly above the horizontal
to hit a target one(1) meter off the ground and 1000meters away. (Wade, 2011, p. 6)
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Figure 12: The Symbol Definition and Units used by Author. (Wade, 2011, p. 8)

Another study by (Gkritzapis, Panagiotopoulos, Margaris, & Papanikas, 2008) presented

alternative model for the computation of bullet trajectory and offered a Trajectory Flight Simulation Model.

The study under consideration takes a 0.30 caliber (0.308 inch diameter) bullet by Sierra International

bullet used by M14 rifle by National Match loaded into 7.62 mm M852 match ammunition for high power rifle

competition shooting, as shown in Fig.13. The cartridge is equipped for use in weapons intended for

competition and training in marksmanship and not for war or battle. Basic geometrical and physical

characteristics data of the above-stated 7.62 mm bullet are shown briefly in Figure 14.
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Figure 13: 7.62 mm ammunition by Match, 0.30 diameter caliber typical of small bullet types (Gkritzapis,
Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris, 2008)

Figure 14: Geometrical and physical data of 7.62 mm bullet type (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, &
Margaris, 2008, p. 71)

A six(6) degree of freedom rigid-projectile model (Joseph, Costello, & Jubara, 2006) (Amoruso, 1996)

(Costello & Anderson, 1996) was used to calculate the "free" trajectory flight to target area without practice

control. The six(6) degree analysis of freedom flight comprises the three translation parts (x, y, z) detailing

the location of the bullet’s center of mass and 3 Euler angles (φ, θ, ψ).
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Figure 15: Fixed and no-roll coordinate systems for analysis of projectile trajectory (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis,
Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris, 2008, p. 71)

Two(2) main systems are used for the calculation approach of the flight motion. The first one is a

plane fixed at the gunfire site. The other one is a no-roll revolving system on the bullet body with the XNRF

axis along the axis of projectile symmetry and YNRF.

Laws of the motion by Newton declares that the rate of adjustments of linear momentum must be the

same as total of all forces applied externally and the level of alteration of angular motion must be same as

the sum of the moments applied externally as illustrated in the following equations:

𝑑𝑉
𝑚 = 𝐹𝑡𝑜𝑡 (1)
𝑑𝑡

𝑑𝐻
𝑑𝑡
= 𝑀𝑡𝑜𝑡 (2)

wherein the aggregate force acting on the bullet is composed of the mass, the aerodynamic strength and

the Magnus force. Furthermore, the aggregate moment trajectory includes the instant due to the standard

aerodynamic force, the Magnus aerodynamic moment and the unsteady aerodynamic moment. Therefore,

the 12 state variables 𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑧, 𝜑, 𝜃, 𝜓, 𝑢, 𝑣, 𝑤, 𝑝, 𝑞 and 𝑟 are essential to define location, flight course and

speed at each part of bullet’s flight

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𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑥 ′ = 𝑉 cos ψ cos 𝜃𝑢 − 𝑉 sin 𝜓 𝑣 + 𝑤 cos 𝜓 sin 𝜃 𝑉 (3)

𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑦 ′ = 𝑉 sin 𝜓 𝑢 + 𝑣 cos 𝜓 𝑉 + 𝑤 sin 𝜃 sin 𝜓 𝑉 (4)

𝐷 𝐷
𝑧 ′ = 𝑉 sin 𝜃 𝑢 + 𝑉 𝑤 cos 𝜃 (5)

𝐷 𝐷
𝜙′ = 𝑉
𝑝 + 𝑉 tan 𝜃𝑟 (6)

𝐷
𝜃′ = 𝑞 (7)
𝑉

𝐷
𝜓′ = 𝑟 (8)
𝑉 cos 𝜃

𝐷 𝜋 𝜋 𝜋 𝐷 𝐷
𝑢′ = 𝑉 𝑔 sin 𝜃 − 8𝑚 𝑝𝑉𝐷 3 𝐶𝐷 − 𝐷 3 8𝑚 𝑝𝑉𝐶𝐷 2 𝑎2 − 𝐷 3 8𝑚 𝑝𝑉𝐶𝐷 2 𝛽 2 + 𝑣 𝑉 𝑟 − 𝑞 𝑉 𝑤 (9)

𝜋 𝐷 𝐷
𝑣 ′ = −𝐷 3 8𝑚 𝑝(𝐶𝐿 + 𝐶𝐷 )𝑣 − 𝑉 𝑝𝑤 tan 𝜃 − 𝑉 𝑟𝑢 (10)

𝐷 𝜋 𝐷 𝐷
𝑤 ′ = 𝑔 cos 𝜃 − 𝐷 3 𝑝 (𝐶𝐿 + 𝐶𝐷 )𝑤 + 𝑞𝑢 + tan 𝜃 𝑝𝑣 (11)
𝑉 8𝑚 𝑉 𝑉

𝜋
𝑝′ = 𝐷 5 𝑝𝑝𝐶𝐿𝑃 (12)
161𝑋𝑋

𝜋 𝜋 𝑣
𝑞 ′ = 𝐷 3 8𝐼 𝑝 (𝐶𝐿 + 𝐶𝐷 )𝑤𝐿𝐸𝑀𝐶𝑃 + 𝐷 4 16𝐼 𝑝𝐶𝑌𝑃𝐴 𝑃 (𝑉) 𝐿𝐸𝑀𝐶𝑀+ (13)
𝑌𝑌 𝑌𝑌

𝜋 𝜋 𝐷 𝐼𝑋𝑋 𝐷
+𝐷 5 𝑝𝐶 + 𝐷4 𝑝𝐶 − 𝑟 𝑝 − 𝑟 2 tan 𝜃
16𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑀𝑄𝑞 8𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑀𝐴 𝑉 𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑉

𝜋 𝜋 𝑣
𝑟 ′ = −𝐷 3 𝑝(𝐶𝐿 + 𝐶𝐷 )𝑣 𝐿𝐸𝑀𝐶𝑃 + 𝐷 4 𝑝𝐶𝑌𝑂𝐴 𝑃 ( ) 𝐿𝐸𝑀𝐶𝑀 + (13)
8𝐼𝑌𝑌 16𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑉

𝜋 𝜋 𝐷 𝐼𝑋𝑋 𝐷
+𝐷 5 𝑝𝐶𝑀𝑄 𝑞 + 𝐷 4 𝑝𝐶𝑀𝐴 − 𝑟 𝑝 − 𝑟 2 tan 𝜃
16𝐼𝑌𝑌 8𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑉 𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑉

𝜋 𝜋 𝑤
𝑟 ′ = 𝐷 3 8𝐼 𝑝(𝐶𝐿 + 𝐶𝐷 )𝑣𝐿𝐸𝑀𝐶𝑃 + 𝐷 4 16𝐼 𝑝𝑝𝐶𝑌𝑃𝐴 ( 𝑉 ) 𝐿𝐸𝑀𝐶𝑀 + (14)
𝑌𝑌 𝑌𝑌
 21

𝜋 𝜋 𝐷 𝐼𝑋𝑋 𝐷
+𝐷 5 𝑝𝐶𝑞𝑀 𝑟 − 𝐷 4 𝑝𝐶𝑀𝐴 + 𝑝𝑞 + 𝑞𝑟 tan 𝜃
16𝐼𝑌𝑌 8𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑉 𝐼𝑌𝑌 𝑉

Estimation of Primary Rate of Spin

For the bullet trajectory to be statically stable, the original spin rate 0 p ~ forecast at the gun nose in

the gunfire site is very essential. McCoy’s descriptions state the given format is adopted:

𝑃0 = 2𝜋𝑉0 /𝜂𝐷(𝑟𝑎𝑑 /𝑠)

where 𝑉0 is the primary firing speed (m/s), η the firing twist level at the firearm muzzle , and D the location

diameter of the bullet type (m). Classic standards of rifling rotation η are 1/18 calibers per twist for large

projectile and twelve inches per turn for minor bullets.

Computational Simulation

The flight dynamic model of 7.62 millimeter projectile includes the resolution of the set of 12 non-

linear 1st order normal differentials, Eqs (3-14), which are resolved concurrently by selecting numerical

incorporation using a 4th order Runge - Kutta scheme, and favors to the 6-D minor atmospheric bullet flight.

The constant (Gkritzapis, Panagiotopoulos, Margaris, & Papanikas, 2008) trajectory model utilizes

average values of the investigational aerodynamic quantities variants (see table 6).

Table 4: Trajectory aerodynamic parameters (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris, 2008, p. 73)

7.62mm with construct aerodynamic coefficients

𝐶𝐷 = 0.235, 𝐶𝐿 = 2.205, 𝐶𝐿𝑃 = −0.01
𝐶𝑀𝑄 = −4.700, 𝐶𝑀𝐴 = 2.92, 𝐶𝑌𝑃𝐴 = −1.26

The outcomes provide the calculation replication of the 6-D non – constrained and non - thrusting

bullet flight path for roughly definite huge missiles and tiny projectiles. Preliminary conditions for the dynamic
 22

model of flight with consistent and flexible flight coefficients are illustrated in Table 7 for the studied

examination instance.

Table 5: Parameters for Initial flight of studied test cases (Gkritzapis, Tsiatis, Panagiotopoulos, & Margaris,
2008, p. 73)

Forensic Investigations

Cooperation between medicine and ballistic forensic experts can deliver a precise depiction of the

path flight from the gun muzzle both from outside and inside of the body. The curves deliver a valuable ways

to quantitatively relate trajectory an priori that corresponds to a likely real geometric data situation. 3D and

full trajectory reconstruction of crime scenes is a potent material for construction of a realistic portrait of a

condition without going to the crime scene itself. (Colard, Delannoy, Bresson, Marechal, & Hedouin, 2013).

Although forensic imaging is an additional tool, it is not projected to be a replacement for autopsy

which is the main protocol. (Colard, Delannoy, Bresson, Marechal, & Hedouin, 2013) However,

(Andenmatten, et al., 2008) showed that examination on ballistic wounds from medical imaging and autopsy

were similar in virtual autopsy context development.

In several cases, the only information that can be used is the terminal angle about how a shooting

took place at an actual shooting scene. However, (Knox, 2013), stated that if assumptions can be reasonably

made on the kind of ammunition and weapon used, then computation of trajectory is probable. Method of
 23

computation will be iterative in most cases: preliminary values will be presumed for the collection of fire,

calculations are to be performed and the resultant trajectory angle will be matched with the slant

measurement. The greater data presented as bases for these assumptions, the more accurate the procedure

is going to be. It is essential to note that even irregular computations of the flight of the projectile may result

to discovering supplementary indication on the shooter’s whereabouts.

In developing trajectory curve, bullet ballistic coefficient and muzzle velocity are important factors. If

this information is known, the flight time and remaining velocity for a given range can be calculated. Today

there are many ballistic software programs that compute for these properties accurately and generate curves

for the trajectory of bullets (http://www.loadammo.com, 2002)

2.2 Concept of the Study

Figure 16: Conceptual Framework

 24

Figure 16 shows the concept of the study. IPO model was used. The Input diagram shows the

knowledge requirements used in the development of this system which includes experts who has knowledge

in ballistics, programming skills in C#, Unity 5 Designing, Kinematic Movement Algorithm and Path Following

Algorithm. The requirements in hardware components include a PC or laptop, 32 bits with at least 2.0 GHz

processor and 4GB of physical RAM. The required software are C# programming and Unity 5.3 for the

development of the simulation. The process diagram shows the process on how the design and development

of bullet tracer. The output is the simulation tool for identifying the possible sources of stray bullets in the

Philippines which is Bullet Tracer and evaluation of the system follows.

2.3 Definition of Terms

Ammunition - the projectiles made of metal that can cause fatalities to victims when it hits the body.

Bullet - a round or elongated missile (as of lead) to be fired from a firearm

Forensic Investigation – applying of knowledge in science for dealing with legal problems

Muzzel - the discharging end of a weapon

Projectile - a missile for a weapon (such as a firearm)

Random gunfire - Indiscriminate firing of weapons

Simulation - the use of a simulating device for examination of a problem often not subject to direct

experimentation

Trajectory - a path, progression, or line of development resembling a physical trajectory

 25

3 OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK
3.1 Materials
3.1.1 Software
Table 6: Software requirements

Software’s Version Developer

Unity3D 5.3 Unity Technologies

C# 7.0 Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Excel 2013 Microsoft Corporation

Rapid Miner Rapid Miner Studio RapidMiner

Table 3 shows the software requirements needed in the development of the simulation tool. To

develop software needed includes:

Unity 3D from Unity Technologies is an engine mainly used to design games and simulations for

mobile devices, computers and consoles. The researcher will use this software in developing the simulation

tool.

C# is a well-designed object-oriented language that allows programmers to develop a wide array of

programs that executes on the .NET Framework. C# can be used to make client applications in Windows,

Web services in XML, client - server applications and other programs, and much more. Visual C# contains a

built-in debugger, a convenient and innovative code editor and user-interface creator and several other

components to facilitate applications development based on .NET Framework and the C# language. C# will

be used with Unity 3D for the development of the simulation tool.

Microsoft Excel 2013 will be used in the preparation of data gathered from the Philippine National

Police for data mining.

 26

RapidMiner Studio is a data mining tool this is great for constructing analytic workflows. This tool

supports hundreds of preparation of data and algorithms in machine learning to carry out data mining

activities. (Data Mining Tools: Using RapidMiner for Data Mining, 2017) RapidMiner will be used to generate

the class to be used in the development of the simulation tool.

3.1.2 Hardware

Table 7: Hardware requirements

Item Name Specification License

Desktop/Laptop At least Core 2 Duo Windows OS
Processor2 with 4Gb RAM

Table 7 shows the hardware requirements that the researcher needed for the development of the

simulation. Desktop and or Laptop computer is needed with at least Core 2 Duo running at 2.0 GHz with at

least 4Gb of physical memory.

3.1.3 Data Requirements

Table 8 Data requirements

Data Source Type of Data Year of Acquisition Details

The report of the 80
PNP Investigation Report 2017 stray bullet cases

Table 5 shows the data requirements needed for the study. These data will come from the Philippine

National Police Central Office in Camp Rafael C. Crame. A letter will be submitted seeking permission to

access the results of stray bullet investigations.

 27

3.1.3.1 Data Gathering Tools and Techniques

Figure 17 - Knowledge Discovery Process or Knowledge Discovery in Databases (Indarto, 2013, p. 1)

In the conducting this study, the researcher observed the knowledge discovery process (KDP) to

gather the needed data relevant to the study but distinct from those gathered from literature reviews.

KDP pursues new information in application domain and is described as the nontrivial method of

recognizing valid, potentially useful, and understandable patterns in data. This process take a broad view to

non-database foundations of data but gives emphasis to databases as a main source of data. (Cios ,

Swiniarski, Pedrycz, & Kurgan, 2007)

Selection

A letter was submitted by the researcher to the Public Information Office (PIO) of the Philippine

National Police (PNP – PIO). This communication contained a request for data related to stray bullet

incidents in the Philippines for the last 10 years. It also contained a request for interviews with forensics and

ballistics experts to gather information about investigative methods and procedures carried out to solve stray

bullet cases.
 28

Preprocessing and Cleaning

After the letter was received and subsequently approved, the researcher was provided by the PNP

with actual investigative data related to stray bullet incidents. The researcher was also referred to the

concerned departments for the conduct of interviews with ballistics and forensics experts. The data provided

by the PNP and the results of the interviews conducted comprise the sources of data to be used by the

researcher.

Feature Selection

To protect the identity of victims and the privacy of data, only the information needed for the

computation of bullet trajectory will be extracted from the gathered data. The following pieces of information

was collected and encoded in an Excel file: the angle of bullet impact, the bullet type used and the victim’s

position. These information were then combined with the initial velocity of the specific bullet used in the

incident to compute for the horizontal and vertical velocity, flight time and distance travelled by the bullet.

(see Figure 18).

Figure 18 - Sample Data Set

Feature Extraction

The dataset collection to be used for the training will come from the actual data gathered from the

Philippine National Police. Eighty cases of stray bullet incidents will be used throughout the database

collection. The data to be extracted from the cases will be as follows: 1) the brand of pistol used; 2) the bullet

type that was used in the shooting either found inside the body of the victim; 3) the initial velocity, this will be

based on the data of the bullet and pistol; 4) the launch angle; 5) horizontal velocity; 6) vertical velocity; 7)
 29

flight time of the bullet and 8) distance travelled of the bullets. These will be the factors needed in order to

compute the trajectory of the bullet and identify the location of the shooter.

Data Mining

Using the data gathered from the literature review and from the interview conducted by the

researchers through the different sources of data, Philippine National Police (PNP), witnesses and victims,

the process of data mining will be applied. According to (Aparna & Paul, 2016) data mining is the extraction

process of related and needed information from a data collection. It is done on the basis of the feature of the

data.

Self – Organizing Map (SOM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Mean, Hierarchical Clustering and

Vector Quantization are then applied to the data gathered for the production of the data classes

Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Support Vector Machine or SVM is used to classify data by the separating them thru the use of

hyperplanes. Given categorized preparation data, an ideal hyper plane is generated by the algorithm which

catalogs different samples. Procedure in SVM algorithm is grounded in determining the hyper-plane that

gives the biggest least space to the preparation examples. (Introduction to Support Vector Machines, 2017)

Vector Quantization

The main intent of Vector quantization (VQ) is to be utilized for cataloguing. VQ is grounded on

codebook vectors like unsupervised networks. Each classification contains a subset of associated codebook

courses, and a vector information is given to the class nearest to where the codebook vector fits. In literature

of neural networks, the vectors are usually termed neurons of the VQ network. Contrary to unsupervised

networks, VQ networks are subjected to algorithms that are supervised for training which means resulting
 30

data indicative of precise class of specific input vector needs to be supplied during training. (Vector

Quantization, 2017)

K mean

K-mean is a popular “clustering” algorithm that stores centroids that is used for cluster definition.

Points are assigned in a specific group if it is nearest to centroid of that group than any other centroid. K

means searches for the appropriate centroids by reverting between (1) allocating cluster data points based

on current centroids and (2) selecting centroids founded on the assignment of points to clusters. (Piech,

2012)

Hierarchical clustering

Hierarchical clustering is used to construct a collection tree to symbolize data, wherein each “node”

is connected to 2 or more succeeding clusters. These bunches are combined and prepared as a tree, which

results to a relevant segregation system. The nodes in the “cluster tree” comprises of a bunch of analogous

data; “Nodes” are positioned on the graph beside the similar nodules. (Andale, 2016)

Self-organizing map (SOM)

Self-organizing map or SOM is a technique that automatically performs investigation on data. SOM

has extensive use in clustering problems and exploration of data in different fields such as finance, linguistics

and science. SOM is associated with vector quantization that is widely used in transmission and signal

processing. SOM denotes the assignment of input data items using a model sets. However, the models are

associated with regular grid of nodes in orderly fashion so that more related models become associated

automatically with nodes adjacent in grid. (Kohonen, 2013)

 31

Interpretation and Evaluation

After obtaining the features to be used, a model to differentiate the features will be applied. The

datasets will be segregated to 80% for training and 20% percent for testing. The researcher will employ the

use of 5 different classification models namely Self-Organizing Map(SOM), Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Classifier, Vector Quantization, K-mean and Hierarchical Clustering. The researcher will then use

RapidMiner to produce a class, comparing the resulting data with high level of accuracy and acceptable level

of kappa. After the assessment and examination, the class will be used afterwards to develop a prototype

program that will compute for the trajectory of the bullets beings fired.

3.2 Methods

3.2.1 System Architecture

Figure 19: System Architecture

 32

Figure 19 shows the System Architecture that will be used in the development of the simulation

program. In the design of the Graphical User Interface (GUI), the angle of impact, the bullet type and the

victim’s position are required as inputs needed for the calculation of the bullets trajectory. The result will be

the trajectory of the bullet, the distance, x and y coordinates of the shooter, accuracy rate combining to

generate a simulation of the bullets trajectory.

Prototype Development

The prototype for this study will be developed using Unity 3D and C# programming.

There are several methods to simulate a bullet's path, but the method called Backward Euler, which

is similar to the method Unity's physics engine is using will be used in this study.

To make the simulation more presentable, the time it takes to hit the target will be calculated first so

the trajectory curve stops when the target has been reached. To be able to do that we have to use a method

called numerical integration. The basic idea behind that method is to use tiny steps to make our way from

the initial position where the bullet starts and move our way to the position where it will land, without firing

any bullet in Unity's physics engine as the bullet's path is simulated. (Please see Figure 21).

Sample Screen Layouts

 33

Figure 20: Screenshots

Figure 21 shows sample screen shots of the proposed system’s prototype. It presents different views

of the path travelled by a bullet from its source to its target destination.
 34

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