Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
macroeconomic
challenges
1
August 21, 2019
Contents
2
Productivity trend is negative
Labor Productivity
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
5
Negative potential growth
6
Productivity trend is negative
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
8
Capital stock is unemployed
9
Capital stock is unemployed
10
Liquidity is unemployed
1,200
1,000
800
(NAf. million)
600
400
200
-200
11
Free reserves Estimate reserves for transaction and precautionary purposes
Sectoral shift
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-14.9
-20.0
Restaurants & Hotels Manufacturing
12
Competitiveness is not OK
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
-30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 15
Policy:
Manage aggregate demand and aggregate supply
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
Fiscal adjustment Treshold
18
2019* = projection of the CBCS
Can monetary policy stimulate demand?
(Can we print money?)
4
Months
20
Import coverage norm Import coverage
Private credit extension
(year-on-year growth)
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
21
The role of structural policies
24
THEEND 2
5