Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: What Are
Vietnam’s Hopes to
Internationalize Its Dispute with
China?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 23, 2019

We are preparing a report on recent South China Sea tensions between Vietnam and
China, and request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. On Thursday, 22 August, the U.S State Department released a statement that was
very supportive of Vietnam in the recent conflict with China near the Vanguard Bank.
It was fairly strongly worded, but what does it really represent?
ANSWER: The State Department press statement on 22 August, ‘China Escalates Coercion
against Vietnam’s Longstanding Oil and Gas Activity in the South China’, is another iteration of
a U.S. shift to stronger rhetoric in calling out Chinese bullying, coercion and threats to
energy security in the South China Sea. The reference to U.S. companies in the final
paragraph is a new development. It serves two purposes, first, to demonstrate that
the U.S. is not an outside power regarding maritime disputes in the South China Sea
and, second, to give China warning not to interfere with U.S. companies, such as
ExxonMobil, currently operating in Vietnam. But there is no indication of what
practical steps the U.S. might take in response to Chinese coercion of regional states
like Vietnam.
Q2. Do you think the U.S., or other actors in the region (Australia’s Prime Minister
Scott Morrison is currently visiting Vietnam) are being quite active? Is there more
international pressure building on China at the moment?
ANSWER: On July 20, the U.S. State Department issue a strong statement criticizing
China. Following this, the Trilateral Security Dialogue involving the U.S., Japan and
Australia, and the following Australia United States Ministerial Meeting (AUSMIN)
issued strong statements on “serious developments” without naming China.
Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison made strongly critical remarks in a speech
in Hanoi on 22 August, without naming China. At the rhetorical level there is increased
pressure on China but this has not been followed up with any pledge to take effective
action. In sum, at the moment it is “all talk and no action” regarding China’s bullying
behavior.
Q3. Vietnam’s foreign ministry held a press conference yesterday, but wefound that
most of what they said on the issues relating to the South China Sea were very
 2

standard, and didn’t really have anything new. Did you read any significance in the
statements from the ministry, or other government officials?
ANSWER: Vietnam is marking time on this issue by holding firm to international law
and calling on the support of the international community. Unlike 2014, when the
world’s media was invited on board Vietnam Coast Guard vessels to film China actions
in ramming ships and its use of its high-power water cannons, this time Vietnam has
kept a lid on the media. For example, Vietnam will neither confirm nor deny that it
dispatched a frigate and/or an oil rig with escorts to Vanguard Bank.
Q4. What are Vietnam’s next steps? What is the risk right now of a conflict where
there may be actual casualties or damages incurred?
ANSWER: Vietnam will signal to the U.S., Australia and other likeminded maritime
powers that it is ready to step up cooperation in maritime security through practical
activities. In other words, Vietnam seeks to further internationalize its dispute with
China. For example, Vietnam just announced it would join in the first ASEAN-U.S.
maritime exercise in the Gulf of Thailand in early September. Vietnam will host a visit
by Prime Minister Mahathir in a few days and the South China Sea is likely to feature.
Vietnam is also mulling taking its dispute with China to the United Nations. And legal
action is also being contemplated.
Up until now, Vietnamese sources privately report, China has acted with relative
restraint comparted to 2014. High powered water cannons have been fired at a
distance and Vietnam has not reported any incidents of ramming, only incidents of
China Coast Guard ships crossing the bows of Vietnamese ships in a dangerous
manner. At the moment the present posture of the two parties is low risk.
Q5. Lastly, there was so much talk, from China especially, about the code of conduct
text at the last ASEAN meeting a couple weeks ago, and now there’s been this messy
standoff. What does this say to you about the possibilities of real peaceful resolution
of the conflicts through a code of conduct, or ASEAN dialogues?
ANSWER: At the moment there is nothing in the South China Sea Code of Conduct
(COC) Single Draft Negotiating Text that would restrain any of the potential signatories
or create an effective mechanism for the peaceful resolution of disputes. The
proposed COC lacks that status of an international treaty and only suggests possible
dispute settlement mechanisms, such as the ASEAN High Council, on a voluntary basis
but no means to enforce a judgment.
The South China Sea issue has been raised by ASEAN ministers who issued a slightly
stronger joint statement after this year annual ministerial meeting in Bangkok. In the
past, ASEAN joint statements referred to “some concerns” about “incidents in the
area”, these phrases were changed to “concerns were expressed by some Ministers”
and. “serious incidents in the area [emphasis added],” respectively.

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
 3

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: What Are Vietnam’s Hopes to
Internationalize Its Dispute with China?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August
23, 2019. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To
remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and
hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.