EARTHQUAKE IN BANGLADESH:

A NATURAL DISASTER AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

A. A. Khan1 , M. Hoque 1 , S. H. Akhter1 & M. A. Hoque 1

ABSTRACT: The nature and the distribution of the earthquake events in different seismic zones
of the country are intrinsically related to various tectonic elements. The increased frequency of
earthquake events in Bangladesh in the last 30 years suggests reviving tectonic activity. In case of
severe earthquake and increased probability of earthquakes the risk on the loss of life and damage
to the property in Bangladesh will be quite high. Four severest risk zones in the country are
inferred those include northern part of Dinajpur, Rangpur, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Tangail, northern
part of Dhaka, Khulna, Jessor, Kushtia, and Chittagong. Considering the devastating impact of
such impending earthquake on land and society and the lack of adequate infrastructures for
earthquake studies, the installation of network of high-sensitivity modern seismographs with all
components is immediately needed. Valid predictions of earthquakes can thus be made and
warnings are issued in order to minimize loss of lives and damage to properties. Emphasis is given
to the needs for undertaking public awareness programmes through physical planning of human
settlements, following the building codes, and implementing the management techniques of
settlements for both pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster management.

INTRODUCTION

Earthquakes, Volcanism and related catastrophes are the terminal imps of the earth’s
dynamic processes. The earthquakes are caused by the explosion or the release of
accumulated strain due to various stress-fields in the earth's materials. Earthquakes have
been a source of terror and wonder for as long as people have inhabited the earth. Terror
stands for unexpected, sudden-onset earthquake events those are capable of producing
many casualties among the local population and massive destruction of property, while it
is wonder because people are awe-struck by the forces of nature that suddenly disrupt the
environment and alter the surface of the planet (IASPEI brochure). Earthquakes are one
of the major natural hazards threatening life, property, and economic well being in many
nations. Death tolls from major events can be sighted as 255,000 in Tangshan, China in
1976 and 10,000 in Mexico City in 1985. The economic loss in the 1995 Kobe, Japan,
earthquake was more than U.S.$100 billion. Nations striving for full economic
development may find the investments and progress of decades wiped out in a few

1 Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

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minutes. The devastation on the loss of lives and economy due to an earthquake in
developed countries like China and Japan where the advancement of earthquake research
is quite appreciable, it is needless to say that a catastrophic condition will emerge if a
large magnitude earthquake occur in an earthquake prone country like Bangladesh.

Inquiring minds have long sought to understand the processes responsible for this
violent activity. The reasons for the unawareness about potential earthquakes are the lack
of systematic monitoring and follow up of trends of seismicity and micro-seismic events.
Here we have given to give an overall scenario of the earthquakes in and around
Bangladesh and recommended some relevant steps to ameliorate the public awareness.

EARTHQUAKE VULNERABILITY

Earthquakes are related to faulting and tectonic instability of an area. The overall
tectonics of the Bangladesh and adjoining region is conducive for the frequent and
recurring earthquakes. The geo-tectonic setting (Figure 1) of the country is seismically
very active. These are Himalayan arc, Shillong plateau & Dauki fault system in the north,
Burmese arc and accretionary wedges in the east and Naga-Disang-Haflong thrust zone in
the Northeast. Threatened earthquake disaster in side Bangladesh may be expected from
these active seismic zones outside the national boundary.

Tsunami is the terrific tidal wave caused by the underwater earthquakes, usually
strikes the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Bay of Bengal including Java trench in the
Southeast of Bay of Bengal have also such seismogenic potentiality as because more than
Twenty earthquake events have so far been recorded in the Bay of Bengal in recent years
(Figure 2a). Hence, the possibilities of tsunami in the Bay of Bengal can not be ruled out.
The dimensions of tsunami waves dwarf all our usual standards of measurement. A
tsunami often extends more than 150 km and sometimes as much as 900 km from crest to
crest and velocity of that in the open ocean must be reckoned in hundreds of miles per
hour (Bernstein, 1954). If any tsunami is produced in the northern Indian Ocean it may
create heavy loss of lives and properties because Bangladesh is in the tip of the V-shape
bay and the water depth gradually decreases towards land. Tsunamis are hardly
detectable in the open deep sea but when they approach shallow water or the shore they
build upto their terrifying height 4-30 m high upon beaches and tens of time higher into
V-shape bay. A tsunami is not a single wave but a series usually separated by intervals of
15 minutes to an hour or more. Usually the 3rd and 8th are the highest and sweep away
lives and properties.

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Figure 1. Geotectonic setting of Bangladesh and adjoining region and active faults and
lineaments bearing seismogenic potentiality. (Data source: Khan and Chouhan,
1996 and Hoque, 2001).

A good background of historical information of earthquake is very important to evaluate

the seismicity of Bangladesh in close coincidences with the geotectonic elements.
Information of earthquake in and around Bangladesh is available for the last 250 years.
The major earthquakes those affected Bangladesh and its surroundings including the
historical earthquakes are in records from 1664 till 2000. The earthquake record suggests
that since 1900 more than 100 moderate to large earthquakes occurred in Bangladesh, out
of which more than 65 events occurred after 1960 (Figure 2b). This clearly indicates an
increased frequency of earthquakes in the last 30 years. The increase in earthquake
activity in Bangladesh is an indication of fresh tectonic activity or the propagation of
fractures from the adjacent seismic zones.

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Figure 2a. Location of epicentre of earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal and northern Indian
Ocean (after NEIC, USGS internet).

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 Figure 2b. Location of epicentres in Bangladesh (Period 1750 - 1997).
Source: National Earthquake Information Centre, United States Geological Survey

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 STATUS OF EARTHQUAKE STUDY IN BANGLADESH

Although Bangladesh are extremely vulnerable to seismic activity, the nature and the
level of this activity is very poorly defined. The main constraint is the earthquake
observational and monitoring facilities. Earthquake monitoring facility in Bangladesh is
totally absent. Bangladesh Meteorological Department established a seismic observatory
in Chittagong in 1954. It remains the only observatory in the country till today and lacks
proper functioning.

The first seismic zoning map of the subcontinent was compiled by the Geological
Survey of India in 1935. Bangladesh Meteorological Department adopted a seismic
zoning map in 1972. In 1974, Chouhan and Khan proposed a seismic zoning map of
Bangladesh. In 1977, the Government of Bangladesh constituted a Committee of Experts
to examine the seismic problem and make appropriate recommendations. The Committee
of Experts proposed a seismic zoning map of Bangladesh in 1979 giving basic seismic
coefficient (Z) as 0.08, 0.05, and 0.04 respectively for the zones. The Committee of
Experts has also given a formula (V = ZIKCSW) for determining the shear force at the
base of a building, where V = shear force, I= Importance factor (1.0 - 1.5), K = factor for
structural type (0.67 - 1.33), C = factor for flexibility of structure (0.2 - 1.0), S = Soil
foundation factor (1.0 - 1.5), W = design vertical load. Khan et al., (1998) has proposed a
multiple elements seismic zoning map of Bangladesh based on maximum probable
ground surface acceleration (g) and the tectonic elements applied to respective zones.
However, apart from some sporadic studies by some interested individuals, there exists
no definite institution for earthquake study in Bangladesh. Being a thickly populated
developing country, the policy makers, planners, scientific personnel and general people
are totally unaware of the status of earthquakes in Bangladesh.

LEVEL OF SEISMICITY IN BANGLADESH

The present level of seismicity in Bangladesh is not precisely defined. References may be
sighted to some quantitative assessments of seismicity in Bangladesh made by some
research personnel/organisations.

The earthquake zoning map compiled by the Meteorological Department of

Pakistan and subsequently adopted by Bangladesh Meteorological Department suggests
that Zone-I, seismic factor g/5 to g/10, Zone-II, seismic factor g/10 to g/15, Zone-III,
seismic factor g/15 to g/20, and Zone-IV, seismic factor g/20 or less. The Committee of
Experts suggested three seismic zones assigning basic seismic coefficients 0.08, 0.05, and
0.04 for Zone-I, Zone-II, and Zone-III respectively.

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Chouhan and Khan (1974) gave a quantitative assessment and opined that the annual rate
of strain (4.5 X 1021 ergs) accumulation corresponds to M = 6.5 and enough strain to the
tune of 2.5 X 1023 ergs was available for an earthquake of magnitude M > 7.5. The study
further suggests that the present accumulated strain upto 1990 to the tune of 3.4 X 1023
ergs is likely to precipitate an earthquake greater than magnitude 7.5 should a single
event occurs with plausible time forecast of between years 1993 and 2005. Choudhury
and Ali (1994) identified the significant seismic sources capable of producing
earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7 around Assam fault zone, Tripura fault zone,
Sub-Dauki fault zone, and Bogra fault zone. Khan et al., (1998) has calculated the
probability of occurrence and the return period of the major earthquakes in Bangladesh
and found that the return periods of the earthquakes having magnitudes 6.8 and 7.4 are 50
and 100 years respectively. The probability of occurrence of 6.8 and 7.4 magnitude
earthquakes are 98 and 99 percent respectively. Khan and Chouhan (1996) inferred
various active tectonic trends for future earthquakes occurrence in Bangladesh. The
inferred tectonic trends are likely to be severely activated as mostly strike-slip motion by
the recurrence of the major earthquakes located in the respective tectonic trends. Khan et
al., (1998) has proposed maximum ground surface acceleration (g) in the respective
seismic zones by Abridged Mercalli Intensity Scale likely to be demonstrated during
recurred earthquake located in that zone. However, the proposed maximum ground
surface acceleration values should be corrected pertaining to seismic absorption
coefficient/attenuation factor of soft sediments and liquefaction character of those
sediments. All the above studies lend support to conclude that all the seismic source
parameters are vulnerable to severe earthquake in Bangladesh.

MITIGATIONAL APPROACH AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

The occurrence of earthquakes in an earthquake prone region can not be prevented.

Rather, what could be done is only to make a prediction and issue warning for
minimising loss of lives and properties. Although precise prediction is not always
possible, an acceptable valid prediction of an earthquake will certainly minimise the loss
of lives and properties. A valid prediction depends on four essential elements (Figure 3).
There are good number of evidences that Quaternary sediments are affected by various
earthquake events in Bangladesh pertaining to uplift, subsidence, ground deformation and
massive liquefaction. Since water plays an important role in fault creep and fault slip, a
small amount of water can produce an effect on lubricated surface for fault displacement
with a stress drop of only 10 to 100 bars.

In order to meet the requirement for short term and imminent earthquake prediction,
the on-line real time seismology has been introduced in Japan. In addition to the above

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 earthquake disaster mitigation approach (Figure 4), the following public awareness
should be followed:
- pre-disaster physical planning of human settlements,
- building measures for minimising the impact of disaster, and
- management of settlements.

Seismic
Regionalization

Statement of odds by various

EARTHQUAKE
Recurrence period observations for an earthquake of
PREDICTION the predicted kind

Magnitude range and

tectonic flux
A. Detailed geological mapping
B. Crustal deformation
• tide-gauge stations
• geodetic measurements
• continuous recording of ground
deformation
C. Seismicity
• observatory studies
• micro-earthquakes
• changes in seismic velocities
• active faulting and folding
D. Others
• heat flow measurements
• tectonic mechanisms
• after shock studies
• micro-earthquake studies
• real-time seismology
• seismic propagation studies
• seismic zoning
• structural dynamic studies

Figure 3. Four essential elements for the valid prediction.

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 Pre-disaster planning
- Measures at physical planning level
- Assessment of potential risk zones
- Assessment of potential man-made risk zones
- Land-use pattern
- Infra-structural network
- Safety standards and norms
- Building shape, height, and group
EARTHQUAKE -Evacuation and emergency preparedness
DISASTER
MITIGATION Building measures
APPROACH - Damage rating
- Building code
- aseismic design and practice

Management
- Both pre-disaster and post-disaster administrative principles
- Implementation of building code
- Relocation
- Mass awareness both for pre-disaster preparedness and post-
disaster management

Figure 4. Earthquake disaster mitigation approach.

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION

Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to earthquake activities. Four zones have been

identified as the severest zones in Bangladesh in terms of maximum ground surface
acceleration and the probable movements of the deep-seated crustal faults and
lineaments. The severest zones include northern part of Dinajpur, Rangpur, Mymensingh,
Sylhet, Tangail, northern part of Dhaka, Khulna, Jessor, Kushtia, and Chittagong. 1885
earthquake of Manikganj, 1897 earthquake of Great Assam, 1918 earthquake of
Srimangal, 1930 earthquake of Dhubri, and 1950 earthquake of Assam all are quite
matured to recur any time and may create devastation in Bangladesh. In order to
determine the exact level of seismicity in Bangladesh, an extensive programme to study
of earthquake activities should be undertaken and be institutionalised. In order to achieve
the desired goal, need for a national level research institute is strongly recommended. An
extensive seismological observatory network must be set-up in Bangladesh equipped with
the modern and sensitive earthquake monitoring facilities. This includes

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strainmeters, accelerometers, velocity and displacement seismographs. Monitoring
facilities of micro-seismicity and on-line real-time seismological facilities must be
introduced. Highly sensitive seismographs with all components of recording system must
be installed for continuous monitoring and for valid prediction.

Acknowledgement :This paper was presented in a Seminar organized by National

Oceanographic and Maritime Institute (NOAMI) at Bangladesh University of
Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh, 10th November 2001.

REFERENCES

Anonymous (1979), Seismic zoning map of Bangladesh and outline of a code for
earthquake resistant design of structures. Final report by the Committee of Experts on
Earthquake Minimization. Geological Survey of Bangladesh. 42p.

Bernstein, J. (1954), Tsunamis, Scientific American, vol. 191, no.2, p.60-64.

Choudhury, J.R. and Ali, M.H. (1994), Seismic zoning of Bangladesh. Sem. Recent Dev.
Eathq. Disas. Mitig., Organized by IEB and IAEE, Dhaka.

Chouhan, R.K.S. and Khan, A. A. (1974), Seismic zoning of Bangladesh. 5th Sym.
Earthq. Engg. Roorkey, India. p.451-458.

Hoque, M.A. (2001), Geophysical and Geochemical Signatures and Its Geotectonic
significance of the Eastern Folded Belt (EFB) of the Bengal Basin, Unpublished M. Sc.
thesis, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka.

Khan, A. A., Hoque, M., Akhter, S.H. and Chouhan, R.K.S. (1998), Multiple element
seismic zoning vis-a-vis state of seismic hazard in Bangladesh. Proceedings of
International Conference on Disaster Management, Guahati, India. p. 348-364.

Khan, A. A. and Chouhan, R. K. S. (1996), The crustal dynamics and the tectonic trends
in the Bengal basin, J. Geodynamics. v.22(3/4), U.K. p. 267-286.

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