第 22 卷 第 5 期 岩石力学与工程学报 22(5)：762～768

2003 年 5 月 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering May，2003

PREDICTION OF ROCKBURST BY
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK*
Chen Haijun1 2，Li Nenghui1，Nie Dexin3，Shang Yuequan4
，

(1 Department of Geotechnical Engineering，Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute， Nanjing 210024 China)

2
( Department of Geotechnical Engineering，Tongji University， Shanghai 200092 China)
3
( Institute of Engineering Geology，Chengdu University of Technology， Chengdu 610059 China)
(4 Institute of Disaster Prevention，Zhejian University， Hangzhou 310027 China)

Abstract Based on the analysis of main causes of rockburst，the compressive strength，tensile strength，elastic energy
index of rock and the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wall are chosen as the criterion indexes for rockburst
prediction. A new approach using neural method is proposed to predict rockburst occurrence and its intensity. The
prediction results show that it is feasible and appropriate to use artificial neural network model for rockburst
prediction.
Key word rock mechanics，rockburst，neural network，underground rock engineering，prediction
CLC number TD 324 Document code A Article ID 1000-6915(2003)05-0762-07

rockburst along with the development of underground

1 INTRODUCTION
Rockburst is considered as a dynamic instability
phenomenon of surrounding rock mass of underground
space in high geostatic stress and caused by the violent
release of strain energy stored in rock mass. Rockburst
occurs during excavating underground space in the
form of stripe of rock slices or rock fall or throwing of
rock fragments ， sometimes accompanied by crack
sound. Because it occurs suddenly and intensely，
rockburst usually causes injury including death to
workers，damage to equipment，and even substantial
disruption and economic loss of underground space
excavation. Since the first record of rockburst at a tin
[1]
mine in Britain in 1738 ，rockburst has occurred
frequently in hydroelectric powerhouse ， mining
tunnel，road and railway tunnel，and nuclear power
station etc. More and more concerns are given to the
space excavation.
At present，the studies on rockburst have been
converted from report on the phenomenon，scale，
regularity and hazard of rockburst to the mechanism，
the cause of formation，the critical conditions and
preventive methods of rockburst. After studying lots of
cases，many scholars have suggested various theories
and many prediction methods，and empirical correlation
have been established [2
～10]
.
Many problems in rock mechanics and rock
engineering can be solved by means of artificial neural
networks (ANN)[11]，and the successful applications
have indicated the potentialities in this field. ANN[12]
is a new branch of intelligence science and an
information processing systems based on mimicking
the structure and function of the brain. A neural
network consists of a number of processing elements
connected each other according to a certain rules and is

Received 29 Sep. 2001，revised 15 Dec. 2001.

* Supported by Chinese National Natural Science Foundation (49972091).
Chen Haijun：Male，Born in 1973，Ph D，Undertaking Postdoctoral Research at School of Civil Engineering，Tongji University.
第 22 卷 第5期 Chen Haijun， et al. Prediction of Rockburst by Artificial Neural Network • 763 •

able to respond dynamically to an outside stimulus，i.e.
input information for information processing. The
ANN is nonlinear dynamic system that has important
features，such as self-learning，adaptive recognition，
nonlinear dynamic processing and associative memory.
It can learn from incomplete and inaccurate data with
strong noise ， and has a very strong ability of
error-tolerance.
Because of the complexity of rock mass and the
influence of existing environmental factors ， the
prediction of rockburst didn’t meet the needs of design.
Therefore，it is necessary to propose a new efficient
prediction method. In this study，the authors present
and develop an artificial neural network model to
predict the occurrence and its intensity of rockburst.
2 MAIN CAUSES OF ROCKBURST
Rockburst is a self-organization phenomenon of
rock mass during deformation course. The excavation
of underground space will change the environment of
rock mass，disturb the virgin balance of rock mass and
result in stress redistribution in surrounding rock. The
stress redistribution is a dynamic procedure in which
the strain energy of one part dissipates，also the strain
energy of another part of surrounding rock masses
accumulates ， and it makes the state of stress of
surrounding rock non-homogeneous. Every stress state
such as tensile，compressive，and shear stress，elastic
kernel and non-stress part will occur in rock mass.
In essence，rockburst is defined as fracture
instibility of brittle surrounding rock. The existence of
brittle rock and high geostatic stress is internal cause
of rockburst，and effect of triggering from some factors
is external cause. Table 1 shows that rockburst always
occurred in brittle rock mass under high geostatic
stress. It is also shown by investigation and laboratory
tests that the burst rock masses are fresh，dry，
unfissured or fewer fissured sound rock，and that they
are of obvious linear elastic characteristics，high
strength，and their strength declines rapidly after peak-
strength，with impact tendency.
During the excavation of underground space，
there are many factors that could quickly load on
surrounding rock. But two of them are very important，
the one is the elastic vibration caused by machine
excavation，blasting and local failure of surrounding
rock，and the other is the local sudden stress
concentration resulting from the progress of
excavation or progressive failure of rock mass. The

Table 1 Rockburst cases

Compressive strength Measured geostatic stress
Project Type of rock Citation
/MPa /MPa
Tianshengqiao II hydropower station
dolomic limestone 88.7 σ1 = 21.0，σ2 = 18.5，σ3 = 4.5 [13]
diversion tunnel (China)
Ertan hydropower station 2# branch
syenite 220.0 σ1 = 26.0，σ2 = 9.0，σ3 = 2.5 [13]
tunnel(China)
Yuzhixi hydropower station diversion
granitc diorite 170.0～180.0 σ1 = 30～45 [14]
tunnel(China)
Taipingyi hydropower station diversion
granite 168.0 σ1 = 31.3，σ2 = 17.8，σ3 = 10.4 [15]
tunnel(China)
Jinping II hydropower project diversion σ z = 32.8～43.6
marble 120.0 [16]
tunnel(China) σx = σy = 27.2～32.2
Pubugou hydropower project underground
dioritic granite 123.0 σ1 = 21.7 [14]
power house(China)
Norway Sima hydropower station
granite 200.0 σ1 =19.5 [13]
underground power house
Sweden Forsmark nuclear power station
gneissy granite 130.0 σHmax=30.0 [7]
cooling water tunnel
Sweden Vietas tunnel quartzite 180.0 σ1=40.0 [14]

U.S.A Idaho state CAD mine A quartzite 190.0 σ1 =66.0 [14]

U.S.A Idaho state CAD mine B quartzite 190.0 σ1 =52.0 [14]

• 764 • 岩石力学与工程学报 2003 年

redistribution of stress in surrounding rock is a very
complex dynamic procedure. either loading or un-
loading，and either compressive stress concentration
area or tensile concentration area could occur in the
surrounding rocks.
The position and the intensity of stress concentra-
tion are related to the shape and dimension of
underground space and to the methods of excavation.
According to in-situ investigation，rockburst did not
occur at all cutting section，but local part such as
crown，shoulders or wall.
Therefore，if the strain energy accumulated in
surrounding rock during its deformation and failure not
only meets the needs of deformation and fracture of
rock mass，but also is sufficient to convert residual
strain energy to kinetic energy that makes stripped
rock slices ejecting out，the rockburst will happan. The
elastic deformation characteristic of rock mass is the
prerequisite for storing and releasing strain energy in
surrounding rock，and a geological environment with
high geostatic stress is the determining factor of
rockburst.
3 CRITERIA OF ROCKBURST
The prediction of the rockburst is one of the most
important parts in rockburst studies. The study of
rockburst could date back to the end of 19th century，
and some achievements have been made. But there are
some shortages in rockburst prediction ， and each
criterion of the rockburst is of its one-sidedness.
3.1 Criteria considering stress in surrounding rock
The criteria listed on table 2 were proposed early，
and only consider the stress level in surrounding rock.
Furthermore，different scholars chose different parameters
as evaluation index of criterion for rockburst，the
classification of rockburst intensity also differed from
each scholar. So it is difficult to use these criteria in
construction of underground engineering.

Table 2 Criteria only considering stress in surrounding rock

Scholar Criteria of rock burst Source of data

σθ /σc＜0.20 (no rockburst activity)

0.20≤σθ /σc＜0.30 (light rockburst activity)
Rusenses [3]
0.30≤σθ /σc＜0.55 （medium rockburst activity）
σθ /σc≥0.55 （violent rockburst activity）
(σθ+σL)/σc≤0.3 (no rockburst activity)
0.3＜(σθ+σL)/σc≤0.5 (rockburst probably)
Turchaninov [17]
0.5＜(σθ+σL)/σc≤0.8 (rockburst surely)
(σθ+σL)/σc＞0.8 (violent rockburst activity)
⎧ 0.34 (light stripping)
σθ /σc = ⎨ 0.42 (violent stripping)
Hoek [7]
⎪ 0.56 (more lining)
⎩ 0.70 (violent rockburst)
σc/σ1 = 5～2.5 且σc/σ1= 0.33～0.16 (medium rockburst)
Barton [18]
σc/σ1＜2.5 且σc/σ1＜0.16 (violent rockburst)
σc/σ1＞14.5 (no rockburst activity)
5.5＜σc/σ1≤14.5 (light rockburst，with light sound)
Tao Z. Y. [17]
2.5≤σc/σ1＜5.5 (medium rockburst，with crack sound)
σc/σ1＜2.5 (violent rockburst，with strong crack sound)
σ1/σc＜0.30 (no rockburst activity)
0.30≤σ1/σc＜0.37 (light rockburst activity)
Hou F. L. [3]
0.37≤σ1/σc≤0.62 (medium rockburst activity)
σ1/σc＞0.62 (violent rockburst activity)
σθ /σc≥Ks σt /σθ 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Lu J. Y. [18]
Ks 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
第 22 卷 第5期 Chen Haijun， et al.
3.2 Comprehension criteria considering both stress
and properties of surrounding rock
[3]
(1) The following criterion is presented with
rockburst tendency index and energy condition of
surrounding rock.
W q x ≥1.5
σ1 ≥ σ c α W qx
α = 1 + ζ 2 − 2 μζ
ζ = σ 2 σ1
where W q x is the rockburst tendency index， σ 1 and
σ 2 are the major and middle principal stress in
surrounding rock，respectively，and μ is the Poisson
ratio.
It is suggested by Hou that the classification of
rockburst was divided into four degrees (table 3) on
the basis of test results and statistical results of
rockburst observation.
(2) It is stipulated by China hydro-power
department that rockburst could not occur if the
tangential stress σθ≤Kjσc and the elastic energy index
W et ≤5.0，in which the value of Kj is the same as Ks in
Lu J Y’s criterion.
3.3 Identification of the indexes of criterion
The indexes of criterion should reflect the main
factors of rockburst——the properties and stress of
surrounding rock. At the same time，they should be
obtained easily and can be compared with each other
for different cases. In this paper，the compressive rock
strength σc，tensile strength σt，elastic energy index Wet
and the maximum tangential stress σθ are chosen as
the indexes of criterion. Compressive rock strength σc，
tensile strength σt，the elastic energy index W et can
reflect the properties of surrounding rock，and the
tangential stress σθ can reflect the virgin geostatic
stress condition and the influence of the shape and
dimension of the underground space on rockburst.
Hou considered that the thickness of overburden
of rock is the main cause of rockburst in Jingping
tunnel ， so he put forward a critical thickness of
Table 3
Item No rock burst Light rock burst
Wqx ＜1.5
σ1 ＜ σ c / αWqx ≤1.41 σ c / αWqx
Prediction of Rockburst by Artificial Neural Network • 765 •
overburden of rock for predicting rockburst[19]. But
Zhou reported that in Taipingyi tunnel ， rockburst
occurred all about the thickness of overburden of rock
varying from 260 to about 600 m. Therefore there is no
relation between the thickness of overburden of rock
(1) and times and intensity of rockburst，and it seems no
[16]
(2) law to obey . Similarly，although the thickness of
overburden of rock is only 5～10 m in the cooling
(3)
water tunnel of Forsmark nuclear-power-station in
(4)
Sweden，rockburst still occurred[7].
4 NEURAL NETWORK MODEL
FOR PREDICTION OF ROCK-
BURST AND CASE STUDY
4.1 Overview of BP network and its improved
algorithm
In a variety of types of neural networks，the error
back propagation neural network (BP network) is one
of the most commonly used neural network. It is a kind
of multi-layer feed-forward network proposed by
Rumelhart and Hinton in 1986. The BP networks
always consist of at least three hierarchical layers of
neurons，an input layer，a hidden layer and an output
layer. Each layer is fully connected to the next layer.
Neural networks learn by adjustments of the weights
of the various connections. The goal of learning is to
minimize the error between the desired output and the
actual output of the network. The learning procedure
of BP network can divided into four stages[20]：pattern
forward propagation Æ error back papogation Æ
memorize and train Æ learn and convergence. In
ensence，BP network is a mapping from inputs to
outputs，and it can learn the mapping relation through
lots of data ， instead of accurate mathematical
equations between the inputs and outputs. It can
convert a seriers input/output problem into a nonlinear
optimal problem，and solve the problem by means of
gradient descent method[21].
Classification of rockburst intensity
Medium rock burst Violent rock burst
≤2.5 ≤3.5 ＞3.5
≤1.73 σ c / αWqx ＞1.73 σ c / αWqx
• 766 •
But it is found that local minimization could lead
to failure of the learning process and that the speed of
convergence is very slow in the BP algorithm，so many
methods were proposed to overcome these problems.
In the paper，a BP algorithm modified with additional
momemtum and auto-adjustive learing rate
adopted.
In the additional momemtum method，a momem-
tum term which is proportional to the previous
variation of weight (or bias) is added to the previous
variation of weight(or bais)，then a new variation of
weight (or bias) is produced on the basis of error back
propagation. The adjust equation of weight and bias
are as follows：
Δ ω ij ( k + 1) = (1 − mc )ηδ i Pj + mcΔ ω ij ( k )
Δ b j ( k + 1) = (1 − mc )ηδ i + mc Δ b j ( k ) (6)
in which， Δω ij is the variation of weight， Δ b j is the
variation of bias，δ is the error term， Pj is input
variable，η islearning rate，k is train times，mc is the
momemtum term(about 0.95). The additional momem-
tum method is a method in which the influnce of the
variations of weight and bias are propagated by a
momemtum term. When the momemtum term is zero，
the variations weight and bias are generated on the
basis of gradient descent method，when the momem-
tum term equals to one，the new variations of weight
and bias exactly equals to the last variation，and the
part of variation generated on the basis of gradient
method can be ommitted. The additional momemtum
term can promote the adjustation of weight and bias
varying toward the direction of the bottom of error
surface. When the values of weights of net are located
in the flatness of the bottom of error surface，δi will
be small ， so Δ ω ij (k + 1) ≈ Δ ω ij (k ) . Then we can
prevent from the occurance of ω ij ( k ) = 0 ，which will
make net jumping out from the local minimum of error
surface.
The changes of weight and bias of each training
cycle are determined by the learning rate. The big
learning rate can cause instability of net system，but
the small one can result in convengence speed slower
and training time longer. The learning rate usually is
determined through experiment or by experience.
Auto-adjustive learning rate refers to that the learning
岩石力学与工程学报 2003 年
rate can be adjusted in training cycle based on the
change of weights. If a modified value of weight
decreases the error function，we should increase the
learning rate. If not，we should decrease the learning
rate. The adjusting equation for learning rate is as
[13]
is follows：
⎧1.05η(k ) SSE(k + 1)＜SSE(k )
⎪
η(k + 1) = ⎨0.7η(k ) SSE(k + 1)＞1.04 × SSE(k ) (7)
⎪η(k )
⎩ others
in which，SSE is the sum squared errors.
4.2 Predictive model of rockburst and case study
The relationship among the index of criteria，the
occurrence of rockburst and its intensity is very
complex. For the sake of the capability of neural
(5)
networks for pattern recognition，we attempt to predict
the rockburst activity by neural network.
Hecht-Nielsen(1989) has proved that any
continuous function f : [0 1] → R can be realized
n m
exactly by a three-layer feed-forward neural network
whose first layer (the input layer) has n neurodes，the
hidden layer has 2n+1 neurodes and the third layer
(the output layer) has m neurodes (Kolmogorov
therom)[22].
A neural network is established with three layers.
The input layer has 4 neurodes，the hidden layer has 9
hidden neurodes，and the output layer has 2 neurodes.
A tan-sigmoid transfer function is used in the hidden
layer and a linear transfer function is used in the output
layer. As mentioned before，the compressive strength
σc，tensile strength σt，elastic energy index Wet and the
maximum tangential stress in surrounding rock mass
σθ are chosen as input variables. Four degrees of
rockburst activity are considered in the neural network
model ： the two output neurodes are given two
binary-values of 0 or 1，that is (1，1) for voilent
rockburst activity ， (1 ， 0) for medium rockburst
activity，(0，1) for light rockburst activity，and (0，
0) for no rockburst activity.
Many cases[8] are chosen as training samples and
five cases are chosen as prediction samples. Having
iterated for 2641 steps，the mean squares error is less
than 10 3，so we could consider the neural network has
－
reached its maximum learning capability. Table 4
shows the training samples.
第 22 卷 第5期 Chen Haijun， et al. Prediction of Rockburst by Artificial Neural Network • 767 •

Table 4 The training samples and prediction samples

Project σc / MPa σt / MPa Wet σθ / MPa Predictive result Reality

Tianshengqiao II hydropower station 88.7 3.7 6.6 30.0 (1，0) medium rockburst medium rockburst

Ertan hydropower station 220.0 7.4 7.3 90.0 (0，1) light rockburst light rockburst

Taipingyi hydropower station 165.0 9.4 9.0 62.6 (1，0) medium rockburst various scale rockburst

Laxiwa hydropower project 176.0 7.3 9.3 55.4 (1，0) medium rockburst rockburst in test tunnel

Jinping II hydropower project 120.0 6.5 3.8 98.6 (1，0) medium rockburst medium or light rockburst activity

Longyangxia hydropower station 178.0 5.7 7.3 18.8 (0，0) no rockburst no rockburst activity

Lijiaxia hydropower station 115.0 5.0 5.7 11.0 (0，0) no rockburst no rockburst activity

Norway Sima hydropower station 180.0 8.3 5.0 48.75 (1，0) medium rockburst sometimes violent rockburst

Norway Sewage tunnel 180.0 8.3 5.0 75.0 (1，0) medium rockburst medium rockburst activity

Sweden Forsmark nuclear power station 130.0 6.0 5.0 50.0 (1，0) medium rockburst medium rockburst activity

Sweden Vietas tunnel 180.0 6.7 5.5 80.0 (0，1) light rockburst light rockburst activity

Japan Kankoshi road tunnel 236.0 8.3 5.0 89.0 (1，0) medium rockburst medium or violent rockburst activity

Italy Raibl Zinc sulfate lead mine 140.0 8.0 5.5 108.4 (1，0) medium rockburst medium rockburst activity
★
Yuzhixi hydropower station 170.0 11.3 9.0 90.0 (1，0) medium rockburst medium to violent rockburst activity
★
Pubugou hydropower projec 123.0 6.0 5.0 43.4 (1，0) medium rockburst rockburst
★
Lubuge hydropower station 150.0 5.4 7.8 34.0 (0，0) no rockburst no rockburst activity
★
Norway Heggura road tunnel 175.0 7.25 5.0 62.5 (1，0) medium rockburst medium rockburst activity
★
USSR Rasvumchorr mine 180.0 8.3 5.0 57.0 (1，0) medium rockburst medium rockburst activity

★
Note：The projects marked with are test samples for prediction.

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171～178

综放面顶板岩体稳定性地质动态评价及控制
凌标灿
(中国矿业大学(北京校区) 北京 100083)

博士学位论文摘要 运用地质学、岩体力学、开采沉陷学及工程物探技术等学科的理论和方法，在分析新
集井田 13 煤层及其顶板岩层的地质条件基础上，用地震 CT 探测了工作面内的隐伏构造并评价了煤岩体地
质力学参数。借助现场实测、相似模拟试验、数值模拟计算等手段，研究了弯曲下沉带内巷道变形破坏和
岩层移动规律、综放面矿压显现规律。综合岩石介质条件、赋存环境条件、工程因素等，建立了 13 煤层顶
板岩体稳定性动态模型。在此基础上，对综放面顶板岩体稳定性进行了动态评价与预测，并针对不同地质
条件提出了顶板岩体控制的对策。研究成果已在现场得到应用。
关键词 动态评价，顶板稳定性，顶板控制，综放面，地质

DYNAMICAL GEOLOGY EVALUATION AND CONTROLLING METHODS

OF THE ROOF STABILITY FOR LONGWALL
TOP-COAL CAVING FACE

Ling Biaocan
(Beijing Campus，China University of Mining and Technology， Beijing 100083 China)

2003 年 1 月 30 收到初稿。
作者 凌标灿 简介：男，36 岁，2002 年于中国矿业大学(北京校区)获博士学位，导师是彭苏萍教授；现在华北科技学院安全与环境工程系任教。