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12.1 Introduction
• In this chapter, we learn:
– How the central bank effectively sets the real interest
rate in the short run, and how this rate shows up as the
MP curve in our short-run model.
– That the Phillips curve describes how firms set their
prices over time, pinning down the inflation rate.
– How the IS curve, the MP curve, and the Phillips curve
make up our short-run model.
– How to analyze the evolution of the macroeconomy in
response to changes in policy or economic shocks.
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Expected
rate of
inflation
From Nominal to Real Interest Rates • Using the expected rate of inflation gives
an ex ante real interest rate:
• The relationship between the interest
rates is given by the Fisher equation.
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• The MP curve
– Illustrates the central bank’s ability to set
the real interest rate
• Central banks set the real interest rate
at a particular value.
– The MP curve is a horizontal line.
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• Interest rates at long maturities are equal to an • Firms expect next year’s inflation rate to
average of the short-term rate investors expect be the same as this year’s inflation rate.
in the future
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• Later critiques
– Stimulating the economy would raise output
temporarily
– Firms will build high inflation into their price
changes
– Output will return to potential.
Case Study: A Brief History of the • The actual rate of inflation now depends
Phillips Curve on three things:
• Originally
– The Phillips curve showed a relationship
between the level of inflation and economic Expected rate Adjustment Shock to
activity. of inflation factor for state inflation
of economy
– Low inflation implied low output.
• Rewrite again:
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• Open-market operations
– The central bank trades interest-bearing
government bonds in exchange for currency or
non-interest bearing reserves.
• To increase the money supply, the Fed sells
government bonds in exchange for currency
or reserves.
– The price at which the bond sells determines the
nominal interest rate.
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