Introduction to the Hydrologic Cycle
• Hydrology is an earth science that studies the
properties of water as well as the planetary
occurrence, distribution, and movement of water.
• The hydrologic cycle is the vertical and horizontal
movement of water as either vapor, liquid, or solid
between the earth's surface, subsurface,
atmosphere, and oceans.
• Key components of the hydrologic cycle include:
o Storage:
▪ Water storage in oceans
▪ Water storage in ice and snow
▪ Water storage as groundwater in
aquifer
▪ Water storage as freshwater
lakes, ponds, and reservoirs
o Water in the atmosphere:
▪ Condensation
▪ Precipitation
▪ Evaporation
▪ Transpiration
o Water on the earth's surface
▪ Snowmelt
▪ Surface runoff
▪ Streamflow
▪ Springs
o Water below the earth's surface
▪ Infiltration
▪ Soil moisture
▪ Groundwater recharge
• The volume of water at any point in a hydrologic
system can be calculated as the difference
between the inflow and outflow of the system
resulting in a change in storage.
Distribution
• Water in the Hydrologic Cycle is stored in four
main forms:
o Oceans
o Snow and ice
o Surface water
o Groundwater
• Ocean water typically has 35 grams per liter
dissolved solids, much higher than freshwater.
Freshwater has dissolved solids below 0.5 gram
per liter and has many uses besides drinking.
• Mountain snowpacks are an important source of
water, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In
some areas, snow makes up a significant part of
the annual precipitation.
• Predicting snowmelt runoff is a complicated
process that involves estimating changes to the
snow water equivalent, or SWE, of the snowpack
over time, energy budgets, and
groundwater/snowpack interface properties.
• Surface water storage and distribution occurs in
lakes, ponds, rivers, and streams and accounts for
less than 0.01 percent for the earth's water.
• Groundwater typically occurs in the aquifer, a
region beneath the earth's surface composed of
unconsolidated rock and soil particles. This region
is able to transmit and store water for extraction.
Less than 1 percent of the earth's total water
supply is stored as groundwater or soil moisture.
Atmospheric Water
• Key processes in atmospheric water include
condensation, precipitation, evaporation, and
transpiration.
• The condensation process releases latent heat
energy and is needed to create precipitation. For
most areas, precipitation is the most important
factor controlling the local hydrologic cycle.
• While rain gauges have been the traditional
precipitation measurement method, various
approaches must be used to compensate for
shortcomings in data coverage and reliability.
Radar has the advantage of providing near-real-
time precipitation estimates. Satellites are used for
rainfall estimates in areas without radar or rain
gauge networks.
• Evaporation is the movement of water from a
liquid to a vapor state. In arid regions, evaporation
from a water surface may be as great as 2,000 mm
per year.
• Various evaporation measurement techniques
include:
o Evaporation pan - limitations include bird
interference, water temperature,
conversion required to estimate plant
water use, and the "pan evaporation
paradox."
o Lysimeter - including weighing, zero-
tension, and tension types.
o Meteorological measurements based on
physical characteristics that affect
evaporation such as temperature of the
air, temperature of the water, air flow
over the water surface, and the vapor
pressure deficit .
o Vapor pressure deficit - a measure of the
"dryness" of the air, or how much water
vapor is needed to saturate the air.
• Transpiration is the process by which the soil
moisture taken up by a plant root system is
eventually evaporated.
• The combined effect of evaporation and
transpiration generally constitutes the largest loss
component from the soil water system. Plants
such as grasses, shrub vegetation, and some
agricultural crops have shorter periods of
transpiration than forest vegetation. In a forest,
deciduous trees will typically transpire over a
shorter time period than conifers. Tree
transpiration rates are usually some of the highest
of all plants.
Surface Water
• Surface water is that part of the water cycle where
liquid water is flowing over the surface of the
earth.
• Infiltration is defined as the downward movement
of water through the soil surface into the soil
profile.
• The rate of infiltration is directly influenced by the
physical characteristics of the soil, soil cover,
moisture content of the soil, soil temperature,
precipitation type, and rainfall intensity.
• Whenever the precipitation rate is greater than
the infiltration capacity, surface runoff will occur.
• Soil is composed of mineral particles, organic
matter, and "pore space," the void or empty space
between soil particles.
• The degree to which the pore spaces in soil are
filled with water determines the soil moisture
conditions.
• Infiltration amount is limited by the available
empty space within the soil. It is very important to
know the soil moisture conditions when trying to
model runoff from a storm.
• Runoff is that portion of rainfall that does not
infiltrate into the soil.
• As the soil becomes saturated, less infiltration will
take place. For identical storms, the amount of
storm runoff will vary depending on the soil
moisture conditions.
• A graph of streamflow is called a hydrograph. The
shape of the hydrograph is influenced by the storm
and watershed characteristics.
• Elements of runoff include overland flow,
interflow, baseflow, and streamflow.
Groundwater
• Groundwater is an important source of water. It is
not subject to the same evaporation rates as a lake
on the surface.
• Aquifers are composed of water, soil, the void
space within the soil, and subsurface materials
beneath the earth's surface.
• In unconfined aquifers, the groundwater is in
contact with the atmosphere through the pores of
the overlaying soil.
• In confined aquifers the groundwater is restricted
by a nonporous or very low porous layer termed
an aquiclude and is not in contact with the
atmosphere.
• Recharge is the introduction of surface water to
groundwater storage such as an aquifer.
• Natural recharge consists of precipitation, snow, or
other natural surface flows infiltrating and
percolating into groundwater supplies.
• Artificial or induced recharge includes ways to
increase groundwater supplies beyond what would
occur naturally.
• Withdrawal is the artificial extraction of
groundwater through a well or network of wells.
When groundwater withdrawal rates are greater
than the recharge of water into the ground, a
lowering of the local water table occurs. This may
cause various problems such as related land
subsidence.
Snowpack and Snowmelt
• Snow and ice are critical parts of the hydrologic
cycle, especially at higher latitude or mountainous
locations. The water stored in a frozen state is
released during the spring, providing water during
the rest of the year.
• "Snow water equivalent,” or SWE, is the amount of
water held within the snowpack.
• Snowpack melt rate is affected by:
o Snowpack temperature
o Albedo
o Density
o Snowpack volume
o Atmospheric factors (wind, relative
humidity, temperature, insolation)
• After the initial snowfall:
o Particles metamorphose into granular
form, increasing snowpack density.
o At melting temperature, any additional
energy results in snowmelt.
o Runoff factors become important as
water is released.
WATERSHEDS
• A watershed is an area of land from which all
runoff drains, or 'sheds' to the same river, lake, or
other body of water.
• When it rains or snows, where does the water go?
Into a “watershed.” Some of the water that falls is
stored in the land, some of it evaporates away,
and the rest follows the slope of the land to a
common river, lake, or other body of water.
• Everyone lives in a watershed – Your own backyard
is part of a watershed. Down the street, there may
be a small creek or drainage ditch, which will
eventually lead to a larger stream, river, pond, or
lake. This means that what happens in your
backyard, and your neighbor’s backyard, affects
your whole environmental neighborhood!
• “Watershed” is a relative term – a watershed can
drain an area as small as a few city blocks, or as
large as an entire geographical region, such as the
Connecticut River Basin. Smaller watersheds come
together to form larger watersheds, much like
puzzle pieces fit together to create a larger picture.
• Another way of looking at watersheds is that they
are a nested system – larger watersheds
encompass many smaller watersheds. For
example, the “Lena Gulch” watershed in
Colorado’s Rocky Mountain Foothills drains only
14 square miles of land, but the water from Lena
Gulch eventually combines with water from
 numerous other small watersheds in the central
U.S. to form the very large Missouri River Basin.
• Just as our homes have street addresses, our
neighborhood watersheds have environmental
addresses.
• All of our freshwater starts out as rain or snow,
which moves through the “hydrologic cycle.”
When rain or snow falls, some of it soaks into the
ground, replenishing groundwater supplies in
natural, underground storage areas called
“aquifers.” Some of the water also runs over the
land into streams, rivers, and lakes. Both
groundwater and surface waters eventually drain
to the ocean. When water evaporates and
condenses, the cycle begins again with rain or
snowfall.
• A closer look at surface waters (streams, rivers,
and lakes) and groundwater reveals an
interconnected system. Streams, rivers, and lakes
help to replenish groundwater supplies in aquifers,
while groundwater flows up into surface water
bodies. During dry times, surface waters can be
derived almost completely from groundwater
supplies.
• Most water systems (80%) in the U.S. use a ground
water source for drinking water, but the majority
of the population (66%) are served by surface
water sources.
• Many people still believe that industry creates
most of the water pollution in our streams, rivers,
and oceans. Actually, “non-point source” or runoff
pollution is the most common cause of pollution –
that’s water running off yards, streets, paved lots,
and farm fields, which picks up pollutants along
the way.
• Some of the most common water pollutants are
yard care chemicals, such as fertilizers, herbicides,
and insecticides; oil, grease, and other toxics from
urban areas; soil; road salts used during the winter
season; bacteria and nutrients found in animal
waste; and air pollutants that are deposited in
water bodies.
• As an example, key effects on water quality in
Atlanta are pathogens, sediments, and habitat
altteration.
• A flood occurs anytime a water body overflows or
when an unusual amount of water collects in dry
areas.
• A particularly dangerous form of flood is the “Flash
Flood,” which forms within just a few hours after
the start of rainfall. Flash Flooding can be caused
by heavy rain and slowly-moving thunderstorms,
and moving water can be extremely forceful –
toppling trees and moving boulders.
• Flash Flooding can be caused by heavy rain and
slowly-moving thunderstorms, and moving water
can be extremely forceful – toppling trees and
moving boulders.
• Failures of man-made structures can also trigger
flash flooding.
• The landscape in urban areas can exacerbate
flooding problems. Because urban areas contain
many paved surfaces, which do not allow
rainwater to soak into the ground, water instead
runs off into the nearest stream or low-lying area.
When these areas become overwhelmed with
water, flooding occurs.
• Tropical storms can also cause flooding – especially
when heavy downpours persist.
How can drought impact a watershed?
1. Reduced soil moisture (plant stress)
2. Reduced water levels in lakes, reservoirs, wetlands
3. Reduced water flow in streams, rivers, springs
4. Groundwater depletion, land subsidence
5. Water quality problems
• Water quality impacts can include increased
salinity (saltiness), turbidity (cloudiness),
temperatures, levels of dissolved Oxygen, and
other effects.
• The above impacts can result in plant stress and
increased vulnerability to insects and disease, loss
of natural vegetation, croplands, and forests,
habitat loss for wildlife, and reduced biodiversity.
In turn, these impacts can increase the frequency
and severity of wildland fires, increase soil erosion,
and diminished air quality due to smoke, dust, and
other particulates. All can translate to a broad
range of health, economic, and social effects, even
in communities far-removed from the areas
experiencing drought conditions.
• Regardless of where you live, there are simple
actions you can take everyday to help protect your
watershed and water quality in local streams,
rivers, lakes, and groundwater supplies.
• Don’t dump! Make sure that only rainwater and
snowmelt goes into storm drains and ditches,
which lead directly to local surface waters. Never
put trash or household chemicals in or near a
storm drain or ditch.
• Be yard smart. Choose plants that are well-
adapted to your climate and water wisely. Turn
those sprinklers off when there is rain in the
forecast, and hold-off on outdoor fertilizer and
pesticide applications until dry weather is in the
forecast.
• Control the Flow. Save water by installing low-
flow toilets and showerheads. These fixtures use
significantly less water without sacrificing comfort!
• Pick it up. Every time you and Rover hit the road,
make sure to take a plastic bag with you to pick-up
waste and throw it away in a trash can. Don’t
forget to pick-up in your yard, too.
 • Fix those leaks. Check your home for leaky faucets
and fixtures, which can result in a major waste of
water!
• Get involved – join a local watershed group in a
cleanup or restoration activity.
Precipitation Estimates, Part 1: Measurement
I. Introduction » What is Precipitation Estimation (QPE)?
• The term Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, or
QPE, refers to the estimation of observed
precipitation.
• This is different than a forecast of precipitation
which is referred to as a Quantitative Precipitation
Forecast, or QPF.
• You may wonder why precipitation is only an
estimate if it is “observed.” Observed precipitation
is only an estimate because the tools used provide
inexact approximations of the actual magnitude
and distribution of precipitation.
• Radar is a remote sensing QPE tool with excellent
spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar
coverage may be inconsistent from place to place
and from storm to storm.
• Satellite is another remote sensing QPE tool, but
with much coarser resolution than radar.
• Even rain gauges, which are ground-based
measurements, are subject to errors and cannot
resolve the spatial detail of precipitation patterns.
• A precipitation climatology is sometimes used to
augment the estimates of observed precipitation.
This can be very useful in regions where
precipitation distribution, and the ability to
observe it, is greatly affected by terrain features.
• The Parameter-elevation Regressions on an
Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM, provides a
commonly-used precipitation climatology tool. For
more information on precipitation climatology
guidance from Parameter-elevation Regressions
on an Independent Slopes Model (PRISM),
• Measurement technologies like radar, satellite,
and rain gauges will continue to evolve and
improve. The focus of this module is to provide
you with the background to make choices about
when to use certain observing platforms. Section II
looks at the remotely-sensed observed
precipitation from weather radar and satellite,
including the use of radar precipitation
climatology; Section III explores the use of rain
gauges; Section IV reviews tools based on
precipitation climatologies, such as the
information available from PRISM. Finally, Section
V summarizes precipitation measurements.
Question 1
The primary benefit of radar-derived precipitation guidance
is that it provides _____.
Choose the best answer.
a) good coverage in mountainous terrain
b) consistent coverage from one location to another
c) good resolution in space and time
d) all of the above
Question 2
Rain gauge observations are not really QPE because rather
than being “estimations,” they are real ground-based
reports.
Choose the best answer.
a) True
b) False
Question 3
PRISM climatology data may be particularly useful for
supplementing the data in which area?
Choose the best answer.
a) Areas with good radar coverage
b) Coastal locations
c) Mountainous regions
d) Regions with poor climate record
II. Remote Sensing of QPE
• Precipitation accumulation is routinely derived
from radar and satellite observations. Despite the
inconsistencies in radar-derived precipitation from
location to location and from season to season,
radar guidance is considered superior to satellite
guidance of QPE in many areas. This is mainly due
to the superior resolution in both space and time
and often better quantitative guidance.
II. Remote Sensing of QPE » Reflectivity-Rainfall Rate (Z-R)
and Drop Size Distribution (DSD)
• Radar reflectivity (Z), expressed in units of dBZ, is
used to compute rainfall rates (R) in mm/h using a
reflectivity to rainfall rate relationship. This is
known as the Z-R relationship. Rainfall rates then
get integrated over time to produce accumulation
for various time periods.
• The relationship between reflectivity and rainfall
rate, and thus the Z-R relationship, varies with
time, location, and season. Hydrometeor
properties that influence the Z-R relationship
include size, concentration, and phase. Accuracy of
derived rainfall rates is further impacted by the
presence of non-hydrometeors, and whether the
radar is sampling a region that is representative of
precipitation reaching the ground.
• Hydrometeor shape, which is related to
hydrometeor size and phase, is also important
information for understanding the relationship
between reflectivity and precipitation rates. Large
liquid drops are more oblate in shape than smaller
ones. For horizontally-polarized radars like the
WSR88-D, greater horizontal diameters reflect
more energy back to the radar. This results in
greater derived rainfall rates.
• Even relatively small 13-mm (half-inch) diameter
hailstones contribute greatly to radar reflectivity.
That’s why the presence of hail results in
anomalously high derived-rainfall rates. This
anomaly is typically minimized through use of
rainfall rate thresholds.
In Depth: Reflectivity Factor, Z
Z = ∫ N(D) D6 dD
Z = reflectivity factor
D = drop diameter
N(D) = number of drops of given diameter per cubic meter
• This equation is presented to explain the
sensitivity of reflectivity factor, Z, to drop
diameter. Because the drop diameter is raised to
the 6th power, small changes in drop diameter
result in very large changes to Z. And large changes
to Z result in large changes to derived rainfall
rates.
• Drop size distribution (DSD) refers to the size and
concentration of drops in a volume, say a cubic
meter. Here we show two DSDs.
• The radar is more sensitive to the horizontal
diameter of the hydrometeors than it is to the
concentration of hydrometeors. Therefore, a small
number of large hydrometeors can result in the
same reflectivity value as a very large number of
smaller drops. But the DSD on the right is
producing greater rainfall rates. The two DSDs
should therefore be represented by different Z-R
relationships..
• The DSD can vary significantly and quickly in both
space and time. This means that it may be
appropriate to have more than one Z-R
relationship in effect at the same time. As of this
writing, the NOAA National Mosaic and
Multisensor QPE (NMQ) radar precipitation
product can utilize numerous Z-R relationships
based on atmospheric conditions.
• Here we have a region with a squall line that most
likely has a DSD consistent with convective rainfall.
Nearby stratiform precipitation will exhibit a
different DSD and should be associated with a
different Z-R relationship than the convective area.
As the precipitation system moves, the Z-R
relationship at any one location should change
with time.
• As snowflakes begin to melt, a coating of water
can make them “appear” as very large raindrops to
the radar. This can cause very high reflectivity and
overestimated rainfall rates at the ground below
where the radar is sampling the melting layer aloft.
• Pure snowflakes and crystals violate the
assumption of liquid hydrometeors that go into
the Z-R equation. However, several research
institutions are working on radar-derived snowfall
including Z-S, or reflectivity snowfall rate
relationships.
• Advances are made in radar technology every
year. As this lesson is being developed the most
promising with respect to precipitation is dual
polarized radar, or polarimetric radar.
• A network of polarimetric radars promises to
alleviate some of the errors associated with the
phase, size, and distribution of hydrometeors.
Ultimately, this means the problems associated
with inappropriate Z-R conversions should be
minimized.
• The basic premise behind polarimetric radar is that
in addition to reflectivity estimates that we are
familiar with, it estimates the shapes of
hydrometeors. This is accomplished by using both
a horizontally and a vertically polarized radar
beam. By measuring the different returns from
these two polarizations, one can estimate the
shape and the effects from different hydrometeor
shapes.
• For example, we can determine if the prominent
reflectors are large raindrops, which tend to be
oblate with a large horizontal axis. We can also
determine if the hydrometeors are more spherical,
consistent with small raindrops. Or we can
measure if the hydrometeors are highly reflective
and generally spherical, consistent with hail. Other
measures can be used to estimate the presence of
snow, insects, or ground targets.
Most of the discussion so far is applicable for areas with
good radar coverage. Good radar coverage is determined
by three main factors:
There are no obstructions of the low-level radar beam from
terrain features or other ground targets like buildings.
Precipitation systems extend through a deep portion of the
troposphere, as we see with convective storms.
The density of radar sites is sufficient. In other words, the
radars are close enough to each other so that all radar
sampling is occurring in the low levels of the atmosphere.
• The radar beam gets higher in the atmosphere
with distance from the radar. Even a low tilt angle
like 0.5° is ~1.5 km (5,000 ft) above the ground at
100 km from the radar, and 5.2 km (17,000 ft) high
at 230 km. Therefore, to sample the low-level
precipitation, which is most likely to be
representative of the precipitation reaching the
ground, radars need to be close to each other.
• For stratiform precipitation it is best to sample the
lowest 1 km of the atmosphere, which typically
occurs within 50 km of the radar. Beyond 50 km
the radar sample may be questionable. This range
can be limited further by terrain blocking of the
radar beam. Sampling of stratiform precipitation is
almost always poor beyond 100 km from the
radar.
• Convective precipitation is distributed over a much
deeper layer of the atmosphere than stratiform
precipitation. Therefore, in seasons and locations
where convection is common and terrain is
minimal, the radar may be able to sample
precipitation well at long distance from the radar,
perhaps beyond 150 km. Shallow convection may
 be undersampled by the radar at closer ranges
than 150 km. Range coverage is worse for snow.
Here are the NWS radar locations with the ideal 230-km
range shown with yellow circles. The density of weather
radars is generally lower in the western United States and
Alaska than in other parts of the country. These maps do
not account for terrain features that can greatly reduce the
radar coverage.
• For many locations and precipitation regimes, it’s
unrealistic to expect good precipitation estimates
with the ideal 230-km coverage shown here. A
more realistic radius of 100 or 150-km would show
bigger and more numerous gaps, especially in the
Western United States. In the winter, the range of
realistic coverage may shrink to less than a 100 km
radius.
• A more realistic coverage is shown here with a
map of the height above ground level (AGL) of the
radar sampling. It is for November 10th, 2008.
Although this map can change depending on
weather conditions and radar operations, the basic
pattern will be the same.
• The light blues show where there is good coverage
of the low levels. The best low level coverage is
obviously in areas with relatively flat terrain and
good radar density. Recall that for stratiform
precipitation, radar coverage can be significantly
impacted if the radar sampling is 1 km or more
above the ground, as shown in the dark blue,
greens, yellows, and reds. Even in the central and
eastern U.S., stratiform precipitation may be
significantly underestimated in places. In the West,
radar sampling can be more than 3 km above the
ground in large areas. This results in completely
missing precipitation systems, especially
stratiform. This is also a problem in Alaska. As an
example let’s look more closely at radar coverage
in the northwestern portion of the contiguous
United States.
To account for the geographic and seasonal variability, the
NWS has radar coverage maps. Here we see the warm-
season effective radar coverage for the Northwest. The
color-shaded areas are where radar climatology shows
good coverage from at least one radar. The individual
colors depict which radar the “good” coverage will come
from. For example, the white area shows where radar
estimates would come from the radar at Boise, Idaho,
KCBX.
• KCBX is considered good here because 1) that
radar is able to sample precipitation, and 2) in
areas of overlap with neighboring radars, KCBX is
sampling from a lower elevation. The jagged
appearance is caused by mountains preventing
uniform good coverage throughout the entire 230-
km radius.
In addition to adjustments based on both measured and
modeled environmental properties, there is increasing use
of additional sensor capabilities such as microwave satellite
sensing and lightning detection. Passive microwave
observations allow detection of water and ice within the
cloud for derivation of more accurate rainfall rates.
However, because microwave sensing capabilities are
specific to polar-orbiting satellites, the temporal frequency
is much less than that of the hydro-estimator products
based on geostationary satellites.
The SCaMPR product, (which stands for Self-Calibrating
Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval) is an example of
combining the temporal resolution of geostationary
satellites with the more accurate estimation of rainfall rates
of polar orbiters, and previews the next generation of
operational satellite-based precipitation estimation tools.
Future multi-satellite precipitation products will also
benefit from the new constellation of polar-orbiting
satellites, known as the GPM, or Global Precipitation
Measurement mission.
• Radar data, where available, provide the best
resolution in space and time.
The best radar coverage occurs with convective
precipitation, liquid precipitation, and in regions with
minimal terrain features.
Errors in radar-derived precipitation are associated with
variations in drop size distributions, precipitation phase,
and lack of low-level information.
Dual-polarized radars estimate hydrometeor shapes, and
should assist with developing more accurate precipitation
products.
• Satellite-derived precipitation is a supplement in
regions with poor radar and rain gauge coverage.
Question 1
The greatest advantage of radar-derived rainfall estimates
is their _____.
Choose the best answer.
a) consistent coverage over a large area
b) high resolution in space and time
c) reliable point estimates for remote areas
d) reliable results for both rain and snow
Question 2
Radar precipitation estimates are likely to be most accurate
for _____.
Choose all that apply.
a) deep, convective cloud systems
b) liquid precipitation
c) areas with relatively flat terrain
d) stratiform, cool season rainfall
Question 3
Which of the following is least necessary for good radar
coverage?
Choose the best answer.
a) Precipitation across a broad area
b) High density of radar locations
c) Minimal ground-based obstruction to the radar beam
d) Precipitation through a deep cloud layer
Question 4
An appropriate Z-R relationship _____.
Choose all that apply.
 a) may need to vary with time Question 1
b) should be appropriate for the entire radar umbrella As the wind speed increases, the effective “catch” area of
c) should work for rain and snow the gauge opening _____.
d) should take into account the assumed drop size Choose the best answer.
distribution a) decreases
Question 5 b) stays the same
Polarimetric radar should provide a means to more c) increases
accurately estimate the drop size distribution resulting in d) decreases once wind speed hits 15 m/s
better precipitation estimates. Question 2
Choose the best answer. At a steady wind speed of 20 m/s (44 mph), the effective
a) True collection area of the gauge appears to be _____ the ideal
b) False catch area.
Question 6 Choose the best answer.
Satellite-derived rainfall is more consistent but less a) about the same as
representative than radar in the conterminous U.S. b) > 80% of
Choose the best answer. c) < 50% of
a) True d) The gauge is no longer catching anything.
b) False • Of course there is a great deal of variability
controlling the fall angle. Influences on the angle
III. Rain Gauge QPE include the steadiness of the wind, disruption to
• As long as humans have kept weather records the flow, and very importantly, the size and phase
there has been a need to capture precipitation in of the hydrometeor.
some sort of collection device. • Continuing with the perspective of raindrops
Today’s precipitation gauges, hereafter referred to as rain falling toward the gauge opening, let’s hold the
gauges, are the current version of those collection devices. wind speed at a steady 10 m/s (22 mph). Compare
• Rain gauges come in a variety of styles, both how the gauge catch for 2-mm drops changes for
manual and automated...and are used to measure drops of >3 mm diameter, smaller drops of <1 mm
rain as well as the liquid equivalent of frozen diameter, and pristine snowflakes.
precipitation. Question 3
Which is likely to have the greatest undercatch by the
III. Rain Gauge QPE » Are they really ground truth? gauge?
• Often referred to as “ground truth”, rain gauges Choose the best answer.
are subject to errors from a variety of sources. a) Snowflakes
Although gauges do often provide excellent point b) Drops >3-mm
measurements, at times the error in those c) 2-mm drops
measurements can become quite large. Sources of d) Drops <1-mm
error include the construction and exposure of the Question 4
gauge itself, the character of the precipitation, and Which is likely to have the second greatest undercatch by
the weather conditions. the gauge?
• Even a perfectly accurate rain gauge network, if Choose the best answer.
such a thing exists, may not be representative of a) Snowflakes
the areal variations in the precipitation b) Drops >3-mm
accumulation. Because they are point c) 2-mm drops
measurements, gauges are only representative of d) Drops <1-mm
the immediate vicinity where they are located. Question 5
• In still air the hydrometeors that make up If a rainfall had a mixture of 1-, 2-, 4-mm drops, which ones
precipitation fall vertically downward to the gauge. would be best sampled by the gauge?
• Wind causes precipitation to fall at an angle with Choose the best answer.
respect to the vertical. In addition, the gauge itself a) The 1-mm drops
presents an obstacle to the flow. This results in b) The 2-mm drops
altered wind patterns near the gauge. c) The 4-mm drops
• The effects of the wind will vary depending on d) All would be sampled equally
hydrometeor phase and size. Question 6
No wind: precipitation falls vertically downward If we had wet snowflakes instead of pristine snowflakes, we
Wind causes precipitation to fall at an angle should expect the gauge catch to be _____.
Wind causes altered wind patterns near gauge Choose the best answer.
Wind effects vary with hydrometeor phase and size a) better
b) the same
 c) worse
• Ground-induced turbulence in the vicinity of the
gauge may be much more important for improving
gauge catch than turbulence induced by the gauge
itself.
• As long as the ground objects are not tall enough
to intercept incoming precipitation, the
turbulence-induced downward motion has the
effect of turning the hydrometeors vertically
toward the ground.
• Elevated gauges are less likely to benefit from
ground-induced turbulence.
• A clearing within the trees may provide the best
balance between reducing wind speed but not
altering precipitation distribution too much.
Remember that the effects from deciduous trees
are seasonal.
(Note: This measurement station also includes a snow
pillow used to measure the weight of accumulated snow.
Snow pillows will be discussed in more detail later. )
Question 1
Which gauge is likely to suffer less from wind-induced
undercatch?
Choose the best answer.
a) Photo A
b) Photo B
c) About the same for each
The correct answer is a.
The gauge in photo A at Mica Creek, Idaho is less likely to
experience significant wind-induced undercatch because it
is in a less exposed location than the gauge in photo B.
Clearings in forests are relatively good locations for gauges
because the lower wind speed and turbulence between the
surface and roughly the height of the trees induces
downward motion of the hydrometeors.
Although vegetation may provide natural barriers to
generate turbulence-induced downward motion, wind
shields are often constructed to specifically induce this
effect. Although these may result in some improvement,
considerable wind-induced error may still exist.
Question 2
Considering turbulence effects, which two gauges do you
think would result in better gauge catch?
Choose the two best answers.
a) One near the ground.
b) One that is elevated in an open field.
c) One on a rooftop.
d) One that is shielded with a wind screen.
• In summary, gauge catch of rain is influenced by
both the fall angle and the turbulence in the
vicinity of the gauge.
• Fall angles that depart from the verical will result
in a reduction of the gauge's effective collection
area. Turbulence partially offsets this problem by
inducing downward motion around the gauge.
• For a typical size raindrop of 2-2.5 mm, a general
rule of thumb is to expect a 1% loss of
precipitation for every 1 mph increment in wind
speed. This converts to 2.2% for every 1 m/s.
• Therefore, a 9 m/s (20 mph) wind speed may be
expected to result in an underestimation factor of
0.80, or a 20% underestimation of the rainfall.
• There is a large envelope of uncertainty due to the
variability in drop sizes, the steadiness of the wind,
and the gauge location. Here are a few main points
to remember. The best measurements in windy
conditions will be in situations with large
raindrops, gauges near ground level, and shielded
gauges. The poorest measurements will be with
small raindrops and drizzle drops, and when
gauges are directly exposed to the wind.
A 5 m/s (11 mph) wind will result in gauge undercatch for
snowflakes on the order of tens of percent. The studies
plotted on this graph show that at a wind speed of 7 m/s
(15 mph) the gauge may be catching only 10-50% of what
actually falls! Even in the two studies where the gauge
catch was improved through use of wind shields, the gauge
catch at 7 m/s is still 50% or less. The magnitude of the
problem will vary with snowflake characteristics. Denser
crystals will have less gauge catch errors than low density
crystals.
• Snow pillows are a technology used at SNOTEL
sites in the western United States. These weigh the
snow on the ground to get a liquid equivalent.
Users in the NWS generally find that these data are
superior to those provided by automated gauges.
The NWS cooperative climate station manual
gauges have a 203 mm (8 inch) aperture.
• As mentioned earlier, gauge catch is sometimes
improved when nearby vegetation disrupts the
wind. A good location may be a forest clearing
where the trees are not close enough to directly
intercept the precipitation.
• The reason to elevate gauges or place them on
rooftops is often driven by security concerns
rather than science. This increases the likelihood
of wind-induced errors.
• Automated rain gauges are preferred by many
professional users such as the NWS. Automation
allows for the assimilation of numerous reports
from remote regions.
• A widely used type of automated gauge in the
United States is the tipping bucket style. These
allow for high temporal resolution.
• Problems associated with automated gauge
measurements are often a function of
precipitation rate and precipitation phase,
• Precipitation phase refers to whether the
hydrometeors are liquid, liquid and below
freezing—such as freezing rain—or frozen, such as
hail or snow.
• Freezing and frozen precipitation present a
difficult problem for gauge measurement. This is
 particularly true for the popular automated tipping
bucket gauge. To obtain a liquid equivalent
measurement, the gauge must be heated to melt
the frozen precipitation. This can and often does
lead to sublimation or evaporation of precipitation
without measuring it, resulting in underestimates.
In addition, if the snowfall rate is very great, the
melting will not occur fast enough to prevent
gauge overflow, again leading to underestimation.
• Precipitation rate can also impact the accuracy of
the gauge measurement. Although this varies with
gauge design, the problem has been primarily with
the tipping bucket style gauge as described in the
rain gauge webcast referred to earlier.
• The NWS is testing an automated “weighing”
gauge known as the all weather precipitation
accumulation gauge (AWPAG). There is still some
heating of the rim to help direct snow into the
gauge where a weight will determine the liquid
equivalent. However, the heated area is not nearly
as large as that in the tipping bucket gauges used
by the NWS. Therefore, the errors with
evaporation and sublimation should be reduced.
• Initial testing showed disappointing results in
snow, perhaps due mainly to wind effects.
• A new double wind shield version of the AWPAG
gauge that is being deployed may help reduce the
problems with measuring snow.
• As mentioned earlier, “snow pillow” estimates at
SNOTEL sites are often used instead of gauges
where they are available.
• Manual gauge reports suffer from the lack of high
temporal resolution. This makes manual reports
less suitable for software programs that need fast
access to high resolution gauge reports.
• However, manual gauges are visited routinely and
therefore problems that affect gauge
measurement may be identified more quickly.
These problems can include insect or bird nests,
leakage, overflow, blockage from rapidly growing
vegetation, and vandalism.
• Provided that gauge overflow does not occur
during intense hail or snowfall, manual gauges
may allow more accurate liquid equivalent
measurements with frozen precipitation. Snow
and hail are melted and measured manually.
• In addition, the observer may collect a “core”
measurement of snow from the ground if she/he
determines that this will provide a more
representative sample than the snow that was
collected by the gauge. Core measurements are
intended to minimize the errors caused by the
wind. A well trained observer may therefore
provide improved liquid equivalent readings.
• There are numerous manual gauge networks. Two
well-known ones are the cooperative observing
network and the Community Collaborative Rain,
Hail, and Snow observing network (CoCoRaHS).
• The cooperative observing network, which is
sponsored by NOAA’s National Weather Service,
has observers in every state. Roughly 80% of the
network still uses manual gauges.
• Rain gauges can provide excellent information if
they are well-maintained, optimally located, and
the wind is light.
• Rain gauges are point estimates and will not
necessarily provide good spatial resolution.
• Wind causes significant errors in the gauge catch
resulting in underestimation errors. These errors
are greatest in strong wind, for exposed gauges,
and for snowflakes and small liquid drops.
• Wind-induced fall angles reduce the effective
catch area of the gauge. Turbulence can induce
downward motion that partially offsets the fall
angle problem.
• In situations where good radar coverage exists, it is
possible that high wind situations may cause
greater uncertainties in the accuracy of the gauges
than that of the radar. A user of multiple
precipitation sensors may want to consider the
possibility that under such conditions it may not be
wise to adjust the radar with the rain gauge data.
Question 1
Gauges are not necessarily ground truth because they are
subject to quantitative errors and they _____.
Choose the best answer.
a) often don’t represent spatial variations across an area
b) are not capable of high frequency updates
c) are not equipped to measure the liquid equivalent of
snow
d) don’t measure high rainfall rates
Question 2
In high wind situations, the gauge measurement _____.
Choose all that apply.
a) may overestimate significantly
b) may underestimate significantly
c) will still be better than the radar
d) may be less accurate than the radar
Question 3
In windy conditions the most accurate gauge
measurements will occur with well-maintained gauges and
_____.
Choose all that apply.
a) large liquid drops
b) snowflakes
c) gauges near ground level
d) elevated gauges
Question 4
A general rule of thumb is to expect a 1% loss of rainfall
measured by the gauge for every _____ increase in wind
speed.
Choose the best answer.
a) 1 m/s (2.2 mph)
b) 2.2 m/s (5 mph)
c) 1 mph (0.45 m/s)
d) 10 mph (4.5 m/s)
IV. Precipitation Climatology/PRISM
• Precipitation climatology guidance can be used to
help fill in the gaps where estimates of observed
precipitation are poor. The most widely used
precipitation climatology tool in the United States
as of 2009 is the Parameter-elevation Regressions
on an Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM. Prior
to its use in MPE, PRISM was used extensively in
several River Forecast Centers in the western
United States.
• Point observations are rarely sufficient to
represent spatial patterns of precipitation. This is
especially true in regions with sharp changes in
elevation and/or nearby large bodies of water.
PRISM uses the known relationships of
precipitation with geographic features. An
automated statistical approach is used for
efficiency, but this is guided by human expertise.
• PRISM precipitation climatology may be used for
both observed precipitation (QPE) and forecast
precipitation (QPF).
• Deriving QPE from PRISM precipitation climatology
starts with point values, such as reading from a
rain gauge. From there we derive the ratio of the
point value to the PRISM value.
• In this example we assume the gauge reading is 40
mm (1.57 in) and the PRISM value at that point is
20 mm (0.79 in). The ratio of 40 over 20 is 2.0.
Now, we apply that ratio to other PRISM values.
• This adjusts the areal precipitation estimate by the
ratio of 2.0 but it preserves the gradients and the
relative magnitudes that we see in the PRISM data.
• Of course this process is done for numerous gauge
locations using distance-weighting schemes. This is
the basic functionality of an MPE component
called Daily QC. Daily QC was developed as part of
the Mountain Mapper system in the western
United States and it produces quality-controlled,
PRISM-adjusted, gauge analyses.
• This approach using gauge and terrain data is
considered the 3-dimensional (3-D) approach. This
can be very useful in terrain-affected areas. The
areas that are within 100 km of the green shading
on this map are where PRISM uses the 3-D
approach for QPE. This would also include all of
the Hawaiian Islands and most of Alaska. In the
white areas on this map, PRISM uses a 2-D
process. This is basically a distance-weighted
gauge analysis.
• The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is
developing another potential tool for spatial
climate data. Precipitation products will be part of
this NCDC climate tool. Here we see the
preliminary look at products for January and July
precipitation climatology in the contiguous United
States.
• As with any climatological data, there are
limitations. Climatology averages the individual
events in a data set. Individual precipitation events
may show large departures from climatology,
especially in the locations of extreme and sharp
gradients. However, even with these limitations,
there are regions that will likely benefit somewhat
from climatological tools.
• Individual events will often be closer to
climatology in regions with large orographic
influences.
• In addition, regions that tend to receive
widespread, stratiform precipitation will be closer
to climatology than areas dominated by
convection.
• So the western coasts of North America may be
the areas that can benefit most from
climatological adjustments to QPE. Keep in mind
that departures from climatological norms will
likely have greater impacts as one looks at smaller
basins.
Question 1
Climatology guidance like PRISM is useful in areas with
good radar coverage, but very few gauges.
Choose the best answer.
a) True
b) False
Question 2
Climatological guidance is likely to be most useful in regions
with _____ and _____.
Choose the best answer.
a) little or no orographic influences | very little convective
precipitation
b) domination of orographic influences | very little
convective precipitation
c) little or no orographic influences | predominantly
convective precipitation
d) domination of orographic influences | predominantly
convective precipitation
Question 3
Climatological adjustments to QPE may misrepresent the
distribution of precipitation that is _____.
Choose the best answer.
a) influenced by terrain
b) falling as snow, hail, or freezing rain
c) a departure from the climatological distribution
d) closely following the climatological distribution
V. Summary
• Observed liquid equivalent of precipitation can be
measured directly from rain gauges, or indirectly
from remote sensing tools. Remote sensing tools
include radar and satellite. Measured precipitation
fields are sometimes altered with climatological
tools.
• Remote sensing tools have the advantage of
providing indirect measurements over a broad
spatial area. Radar-derived products in particular
can provide excellent spatial and temporal
resolution. But remotely sensed precipitation
estimates are subject to errors related to the
 properties of the sensor and characteristics of the
precipitation.
• Direct measurement from gauges is often referred
to as ground truth. However, errors are associated
with the type of gauge, characteristics of the
precipitation, and the wind. In addition, the gauges
often do not represent spatial detail.
• Climatological adjustments offer a method for
filling in data void regions with useful data. But
these adjustments can be misleading for
precipitation systems that depart from
climatological norms.
Basic Hydrologic Science Course
Runoff Processes
Section Seven: Summary
Overview of Runoff
• Runoff is often defined as the portion of rain,
snowmelt, and irrigation water that moves toward
the stream channel rather than infiltrating the soil.
o For some purposes, however, runoff also
includes the subsurface water known as
interflow which also quickly moves
toward the stream channel.
• Runoff is the most important component of flood
prediction.
• The three soil water processes are:
o 1) the entry or infiltration of water into
the soil
o 2) the transmission of water within the
soil
o 3) the storage of water as soil water
• Important runoff terms include:
o Basin – the area that drains to a single
outlet point
o Baseflow – the long-term supply that
keeps water flowing in streams
o Infiltration – the downward movement of
water through the soil surface
o Percolation – the movement of water
within the soil profile
o Surface runoff – the movement of water
across the soil surface to the stream
channel
o Interflow – the relatively rapid movement
of water beneath the soil surface to the
stream channel
o Runoff – sometimes this is just the
surface runoff, but it can refer to a
combination of surface runoff and
interflow.
o Infiltration rate – the amount of water
able to enter the soil in a specified time
o Infiltration capacity – the upper limit of
the infiltration rate
o Surface runoff equals the rainfall or
snowmelt rate minus the infiltration
capacity.
Paths to Runoff
• There are two types of surface runoff:
o Infiltration excess overland flow
(Hortonian flow)
o Saturation excess overland flow
• Infiltration excess overland flow occurs when the
rainfall rate exceeds the infiltration capacity and
can occur even in dry soil conditions.
• Saturation excess overland flow occurs when the
soil is saturated and no more rain or snowmelt can
infiltrate.
• Interflow is the subsurface movement of water to
the stream and can be a significant component of
runoff.
• Transmissivity feedback occurs where macropores
are activated by interflow.
o Macropores are natural voids and pipes in
the soil that increase interflow and are
formed by biological and chemical
activity.
• Enhanced interflow may occur along a soil-bedrock
interface, especially if the bedrock is sloped.
o A fragipan is an area of relatively low
permeable soil and rock that can block
the downward percolation of water and
increase horizontal water movement.
• Groundwater ridging occurs when surface rain or
snowmelt reaches the water table more easily in a
given area causing the water table to bulge
upward—this can increase interflow.
• Pre-event water is water that exists in the soil
profile when a storm begins and gets displaced
into the stream by newly infiltrated water. It can
be a very important contributor to runoff as
interflow.
Basin Properties
• With uniform basin characteristics and coverage of
rainfall or snowmelt, larger basins result in a larger
volume of runoff.
• Uniform coverage is unusual, so runoff is
determined by the part of the basin that receives
the rainfall; this is known as the contributing area.
• For basins of equal area but different shapes, a
long narrow basin will result in a hydrograph that
has a lower peak flow and is spread out over a
longer time when compared with a “rounder”
basin.
• When compared to a meandering stream, a
straight stream will result in a stream response
that is faster and has a higher peak flow.
• When compared to a relatively flat basin, a steeply
sloped basin will result in a stream response that is
faster and has a higher peak flow.
• When compared to a stream channel with rough
surfaces (lots of rocks and vegetation), a smooth
stream channel will result in a stream response
that is faster and has a higher peak flow.
 • Stream density is the length of all the channels in a
basin divided by the basin area.
o High stream density indicates a basin with
numerous tributaries and faster, more
efficient runoff.
• Urbanization results in increases in both the
amount and the speed of runoff.
Soil Properties
• Soil texture is important for anticipating infiltration
and storage of water and is determined by the
diameter of the soil particles.
• Clay has the smallest soil particle diameter,
followed by silt, and then sand with the largest
particles.
• Sandy soil allows water to infiltrate and drain more
quickly than clay soil.
• Clay soil can hold a larger volume of water than
sandy soil, but runoff during intense rainfall is
more likely with clay due to its lower infiltration
rate. Clay also stays saturated longer than sand.
• Depth to impermeable layers such as bedrock or a
fragipan can influence how much water the soil
layer can hold and how quickly it will saturate.
o Shallow soils typically saturate more
quickly.
• Surface characteristics are very important for
determining the potential for rapid surface runoff.
o Urbanization – impermeable and
compacted surfaces increase the amount
and speed of runoff
o Deforestation and forest fires – removal
of vegetation and burning of the soil can
increase the amount and speed of runoff
as well as the sediment loading in the
runoff, especially in sloped areas due to
the loss of vegetation and the decrease in
infiltration
Runoff Modeling Concepts
• The Rational Method is a simple runoff model that
takes into account land use characteristics for
small basins using a land-use runoff coefficient, or
“C” value.
o “C” values vary from near zero in rural or
forested areas to almost 1.0 in urban
areas and parking lots.
• Lumped models are relatively simple in that the
basin is treated as a single unit
o Basin-averaged hydrologic and
meteorological inputs are used
• A semi-distributed or pseudo-distributed model
breaks the basin down into a collection of smaller
sub-basins than the lumped-model approach
• Distributed models represent details of the
hydrologic and meteorological characteristics by
representing basins with a grid.
• The distributed modeling approach is:
o Much better at representing variability in
hydrologic response within the basin
o More realistic for flash flood modeling
o More computationally intensive than
lumped modeling
National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS)
The National Weather Service River Forecast System
components include:
• Calibration - uses historical data
• Operational Forecast System (OFS) - used to adjust
model parameters and input for both long- and
short-term hydrologic forecasts
• Interactive Forecast System - forecaster adjusts
graphical products and forecasts
• Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) -
preparation of long-term forecasts and
probabilistic guidance
• The six sub-components of NWSRFS include:
o Rain and snow operations
o Snow modeling
o Hydrologic modeling
o Unit hydrograph operations
o Adjustment to match simulated with
observed streamflow
o Routing operations
• The Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting
(SACSMA) model:
o Is a spatially lumped, continuous runoff
model used by many NWS offices within
NWSRFS
o Accounts for day-to-day soil moisture
changes
o Is ideally suited for large basins
o Divides each basin into a surface
boundary, an upper soil zone, and a lower
soil zone
o Accounts for direct runoff from
impermeable surfaces
o Accounts for infiltration, percolation,
interflow, and long-term storage
o Accounts for evapotranspiration
• A computed hydrograph from SACSMA represents
the different components of the flow from rapid
direct runoff to long-term baseflow.
• The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model is
an event-driven simple statistical model that is
used by some offices within NWSRFS.
o It is based on basin characteristics, time
of year, storm duration, and rainfall
amount.
o Because it is event-driven, it is not useful
for water supply guidance.
• A continuous API model is a more complex form of
the API model that is not event-driven, and
therefore can be used for water supply guidance.
o It uses information about soil moisture,
surface moisture, incremental surface
runoff, and groundwater storage.
Basic Hydrologic Science Course
Flood Frequency Analysis
Section Five: Summary
Overview of Flood Frequency Analysis
• Flood frequency analysis provides information
about the statistical potential for floods.
• Return period expresses a time period (i.e., the
100-year flood) that is the statistical average time
duration between floods of a certain magnitude.
The greater the return period, the larger the flood.
• Exceedance probability or probability of
occurrence for a given year is the inverse of the
return period. Therefore, the 100-year flood would
have an exceedance probability of 1/100, or 1%.
• Floods, however, do not occur at evenly spaced
time intervals. Thus, a 100-year flood won't
necessarily occur just once in a 100-year period.
• A given return period flood is not necessarily the
result of a rainfall event with the same return
period. That is, a 25-year rainfall won't necessarily
produce a 25-year flood.
• There are two applications of flood frequency
analyses:
1. Estimating the potential magnitude of a flood that
can occur over a given time interval
2. Estimating the return period of a certain
magnitude flood
Statistical Representation of Floods
• The period of record should be at least half as long
as the computed return period. That is, to
estimate a 500-year flood one should have at least
250 years of data.
• Flood frequency statistics are more representative
of potential floods when the period of record is
long enough to capture all types of events that are
possible.
• The probability of occurrence, or exceedance
probability, of a flood over a given time period can
be computed with standardized formulas. This can
answer a question such as, "What is the chance for
a 100-year flood over the next 30 years?"
• The probability of an event not occurring, the non-
exceedance probability, can be computed as well.
• Reliable flood frequency data require that floods
are independent. That is, one flood doesn't directly
influence the next, and flow should return to
baseflow between floods.
• Reliable flood frequency data require that floods
are homogeneous. That is, floods caused by dam
failures are not the same as floods caused by
rainfall. Basin alterations, such as urbanization,
also violate the assumption of homogeneity in
flood frequency analysis.
Analyzing Flood Data
• The annual series is used to compute flood
frequency statistics using the peak flow in each
calendar year.
• The instantaneous peak flow is the peak flow at
any moment, but these measurements are not
commonly available in flood frequency analyses.
• The annual maximum daily flow is often used in
flood frequency analysis. It is the peak average
daily value over the course of a calendar year.
• Annual maximum series data are ranked and then
probabilities are computed with one of several
available formulas, such as the Weibull formula.
• Return period data for the annual maximum series
is computed by taking the inverse of the
probability.
• Annual maximum series data are plotted as flow
versus probability, or flow versus return period.
• Annual maximum series data are not typically
plotted on linear scales. One reason is that a linear
probability scale would imply that there are known
probabilities of zero and 100 percent, which is not
the case.
• The partial duration series is used to compute
flood frequency statistics using all flow values
above a certain threshold and typically has more
data points than the annual maximum series.
• Compared to the annual maximum series, the
partial duration series is better suited for smaller
flood events, especially those with short return
periods.
• The partial duration series graph may contain
points with less than a 1-year return period.
Design Events
• Design events are used to evaluate the risks from
floods.
• Design storm criteria contain a magnitude and
duration. That is, a 25-year storm may be
described as 6 inches (153 mm) in 24 hours.
• Design storms of a certain return period are
assumed to produce a flood of similar stature. That
is, a 25-year storm is assumed to produce a 25-
year flood. We know that this can be a faulty
assumption.
• Design storms are developed from statistical
analysis of long-term precipitation records. A
design storm does not account for areal coverage
or the spatial and temporal resolution of
precipitation.
• A probable maximum precipitation event and the
resulting probable maximum flood (PMF) is a
theoretical estimate of the biggest event possible
in a certain area. This value often reflects the
potential of floods from dam or levee failures.
• The standard project flood is a design criteria used
by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It results
from a set of storm characteristics that can be
reasonably expected in for a given area.
Basic Hydrologic Science Course
Flash Flood Processes
Section Four: Summary
What is a Flash Flood?
A flash flood:
o Is a rapid-onset, life-threatening flood
o Occurs within 6 hours, often less than 3
hours, of causative event
• Causative events include intense rainfall, dam or
levee failure, and/or the sudden rise of water
associated with a river ice jam.
• Flash floods can inundate areas with no defined
stream channel.
• Runoff characteristics may be more important
than rainfall in some cases.
• Flash floods can and do occur with dry soils and
drought conditions.
Hydrologic Influences
• Rapid surface runoff is very important for
assessing flash flood risk.
• You must consider soil moisture, soil texture, and
soil profile (including material at the ground
surface) for determining runoff potential.
• Soil saturation is an important but not a necessary
requirement for rapid surface runoff.
• Intense rainfall and naturally low infiltration rates
of soil can lead to rapid runoff, even with dry soils.
• Soil textures with smaller particle sizes like clay can
produce more surface runoff during intense
rainfall.
• Shallow soil areas will generally saturate more
quickly and produce more runoff than deep soil
areas.
• Small basins (less than 30 mi2 or 77 km2) are more
prone to flash floods than large basins.
• Steep slopes, decreased surface roughness, high
stream density, and altered surfaces all increase
flash flood risk.
• Urbanization, forest fires, and deforestation can
each increase the onset speed and the magnitude
of flash flooding.
• Urbanization increases both the amount of runoff
and the speed in which runoff reaches low-lying
areas and stream channels.
• Forest fires can alter the soil characteristics and
increase the risk of debris flows.
• Occasionally, frozen soil plays a role in increasing
runoff.
Flash Flood Guidance
• Flash flood guidance (FFG) is an estimate of how
much rainfall over specified time is needed to
"initiate flooding on small streams."
• "Small streams" are defined as those streams that
drain small-area basins.
• As of 2006, NOAA's National Weather Service FFG
products include headwater guidance, gridded
guidance, and county guidance.
• Gridded FFG is on the NWS HRAP grid and is
roughly 4X4 km.
• Gridded FFG often shows the same value for entire
basins since it is derived from basin-wide
parameters.
• County FFG is the average of each grid value in the
county and the county often includes multiple
basins.
• County FFG may not be representative of specific
basins since it is the average of all grid values in all
basins.
• The two values used to derive FFG are Threshold
Runoff (ThreshR) and rainfall versus runoff curves
(rainfall-runoff curves).
• ThreshR is the amount of runoff over a specified
time needed to induce flooding on small streams
(those streams that drain small-area basins).
• One ThreshR value per time duration is used for
each River Forecast Center (RFC) basin.
• RFC models produce rainfall-runoff curves which
provide the relationship between basin-wide
rainfall amount and basin-wide runoff amount.
• Rainfall-runoff curves allow one to compute the
amount of rainfall needed to produce the runoff
represented by ThreshR.
• Rainfall-runoff curves account for changes in soil
moisture.
• FFG is derived from basins that are generally large
compared to the typical scale of the flash flood
problem.
• FFG is not very good for representing special-case
basins such as burn scars and urban areas.
• Distributed models allow more detail accounting
of rainfall and runoff influences on a grid scale and
should eventually replace the current FFG.
2.1 What is Drought?
What is drought?
• Let start with the simple question of "What is
drought?" In short, moisture deficiency is a
necessary but not sufficient element in defining
drought. The deficiency must be abnormal and
persistent, and there must be some adverse
impact. Typically, drought has an adverse impact
on a well-defined sector - be it agricultural,
hydrological, or forest and rangeland resources.
• Establishing the presence of drought is both a
science and an art. Quantitative indices and
indicators are important for a broad perspective of
moisture deficiency over a region. This information
must be combined with 'on-the-ground' reports of
drought impacts to fully characterize a given
drought condition. As we will see, these combined
objective measures and expert inputs underpin the
state-of-the-art drought monitoring system in the
United States today.
2.2 Societal Impacts
• Drought is a natural phenomenon and a normal
part of our climate. It can develop anywhere on
Earth and can last for a long time. It contributes to
water scarcity that can impact all parts of our
society. In fact, according to the World Health
Organization, in 2008, water scarcity is a life-or-
death threat to 4 out of every 10 people. In the
United States, approximately 15 to 20 percent of
the country is in drought at any one time. Water
availability clearly promises to be a key societal
concern in the 21st Century.
• Drought is often called the 'creeping disaster.' Its
onset and end are often not realized with any real
accuracy until long after the event has come and
gone. This is a great challenge and frustration for
forecasters, but also for planners and resource
managers at all levels. Droughts differ in their
characteristics depending upon the time of year,
the local environment, and the type of climate.
• Drought can occur at all time scales - from the
'flash drought' that comes into existence in a
matter of weeks that hampers crop development –
to multi-decadal droughts that can threaten whole
civilizations (like the 13th Century Anasazi in
present-day New Mexico). The time scales of
drought are influenced by meteorological and
other conditions on the ground. Environmental
patterns, like El Nino, can cause natural feedback
cycles that can reduce, maintain, or even enhance
drought.
• A look back in time helps us better understand
how droughts unfold. While we only have about
150 years of good instrument records (like direct
precipitation measurements using rain gauges), we
can look back many centuries using paleoclimate
data. Paleoclimate data are natural recordings of
moisture deficit using indirect (or so-called proxy)
measurements such as the thickness of tree rings
or the chemical makeup of sediments at the
bottoms of oceans and lakes. Shown here are plots
of tree ring and salinity levels that serve as proxy
measures. Nature, as a living organism, is a
steadfast observer of remarkable droughts that
have occurred in the past that are not part of the
instrumental record.
• In many cases, the range of variability in the
paleoclimate record is far greater than what is in
the historic record. It can help us to conceive of
extremes we may face in the future, particularly
given that climate scientists are beginning to warn
us that the past may no longer be a reliable guide
to the future.
• If the old adage that 'past is prologue' holds,
knowing conditions of moisture deficit in the
distant past for a given location can help us assess
the relative vulnerability of that location for a
recurrence of a similar drought in the future.
• As an abnormal moisture deficit, drought is
typically measured against a 'benchmark', such as
a thirty-year average of precipitation, or so-called
normal. Using such benchmarks, it is clear that
some areas of the United States are much drier
than others. This means that the hurdle for
reaching an abnormal deficit leading to the onset
of drought differ substantially from one region to
another. For example, 50 percent of normal
rainfall over 6 months would be a notable drought
in New Jersey, while the same percent of normal in
Arizona might be only unusually dry.
• Population growth in the United States in recent
decades has been concentrated in the so-called
'sunbelt' areas of the southwest and southern
parts of the country. Areas in the western U.S. are
especially vulnerable to experiencing lengthy and
severe droughts, with significant societal
vulnerability due to population growth,
unregulated water use, and limited water
availability in this part of the country. By
considering paleoclimate data, it is clear that
portions of the west regularly have multi-year
droughts.
• When considering the spatial extent of drought, it
is important to recognize the wild variability in the
severity of drought that can occur over a short
distance, due to terrain, weather patterns, and
other effects. This underscores the need for good
observations at the highest possible spatial
resolution. For many socioeconomic applications,
spatial resolution down to the county or even sub-
county level is needed.
• Our ability to understand drought over time and
space is dependent upon accurate observations.
Observations of different parameters, like on-the-
ground (or in-situ) measurements of temperature,
humidity, wind, and precipitation are important.
Likewise, other in-situ measures of moisture deficit
such as streamflow, snow cover, and soil moisture
provide additional points of reference for
monitoring and prediction. Remotely-sensed
measures of moisture deficit, like vegetation
indices, help fill important gaps where ground-
based measures are not available. Taken together,
individual observations contribute to observation
networks that, in turn, can be used to develop
drought indices, run forecast models, and
underscore assessment studies.
2.9 Measures of Severity
Severity
• We are all familiar with rating items or events on a
scale of 1 to 10. When we do this, we are, in fact,
creating an index. Indices are particularly helpful in
understanding drought because they allow a large
volume of data to be boiled down to a number
that represents a measure of severity while
offering 'apple to apple' comparisons over space
 and time. Listed here are the key drought-related
indices used by drought experts as they assess
drought and its impact.
In defining moisture deficit conditions leading to drought,
observation network data can be weighted in innumerable
ways to yield indices that address specific applications.
For example, short-term humidity and wind conditions
might be emphasized in assessing risk of wildland fire, while
snow cover in the Sierra Nevada Mountains might be
emphasized to characterize the longer-term risk of
hydrological shortfalls in California some months later.
• Indices are also extremely valuable in monitoring
and assessment as they can be spatially compared
with socioeconomic indicators (such as population
centers and croplands) to determine general
impacts. They can also be used to place a drought
in a historical perspective (such as comparing 1895
to the present).
• Simplicity, flexibility, reliability, and relevance are
all hallmarks of good drought indices.
Section 3: Monitoring
3.1 Collaborations
Collaborations
• NIDIS – the National Integrated Drought
Information System – is an interagency project to
foster good communication of drought-related
issues. Integration and coordination are never
easy, and require fertile ground for cultivating
collaborations. "Drought.gov" is a starting point for
this collaboration, as it brings together many
indices and indicators of drought through
customizable tables and maps. National Weather
Service field offices can contribute to NIDIS by
learning more about "drought.gov" and promoting
the tools and resources available there.
• Drought monitoring is challenging in a number of
ways. Not only are accurate data required, but
they are required in near real-time (within a day or
so) for incorporation into monitoring assessments,
forecast models, and alerts for the public. Delayed
information can cause incorrect identification of
drought severity, as shown here by
underrepresented drought intensity in the
preliminary map for the Northwest U.S.
• Over the past decade, the U.S. Drought Monitor
has emerged as a powerful and respected tool for
characterizing drought in the United States. The
Drought Monitor is well-established as an
authoritative instrument for drought assessment
because of its timeliness with weekly releases, its
multi-agency effort (such as the USDA, NOAA, and
the National Drought Mitigation Center) and
professional development combining indices,
indicators, and objective blends of data. Further,
with drought expert input and oversight from
nearly 250 people in the field, the monitor is
thoroughly vetted by scientists on a weekly basis.
One of the keys to the success of the monitor is its
use of a drought intensity scale similar to the
Enhanced Fujita scale for tornadoes and Saffir-
Simpson scale for hurricanes.
• The U.S. Drought Monitor's intensity scale is based
upon drought impact guidelines, indicators, and
index and model thresholds taken into
consideration every week by rotating drought
monitor authors. Examples of basic input
indicators and indices include the Standardized
Precipitation Index, or SPI, Palmer Drought
Severity Index or PDSI, precipitation, temperature,
streamflow, soil moisture, reservoir levels,
groundwater levels and snow pack. A percentile
ranking approach serves as the objective scientific
backbone allowing the authors to compare
different parameters having different units and
lengths of record regardless of location. In
addition, duration and both regional and seasonal
influences are taken into account, as well as
whether a given location is improving or getting
worse in terms of drought condition. So let's
summarize the different intensity levels of the
Drought Monitor.
• An intensity level of D zero corresponds to
'Abnormally Dry' conditions. At this level, an area
experiences short-term dryness that is typical with
the onset of drought. Such dryness can slow crop
growth and elevate fire risk to above average. This
level also refers to an area coming out of drought,
with lingering water deficits and pastures or crops
not fully recovered. D zero is noted when a
convergence of indicators fall into the 30th
percentile. In other terms, this equates to roughly
a 1 in 3 year dryness. : Note that for the D0 level,
the area in question is only considered to be dry,
not necessarily in drought conditions.
• An intensity level of D1 corresponds to 'Moderate
Drought' conditions. At this level, some damage to
crops and pastures can be expected. Fire risk is
high, while stream, reservoir, or well levels are
low. Some water shortages are developing or
imminent and voluntary water use restrictions
could be requested. In terms of percentile
rankings, D1 is the first "drought" class and falls
into the 20th percentile, or a 1 in 5 year type
event.
• An intensity level of D2 corresponds to 'Severe
Drought'. At this level, crop or pasture losses are
likely, fire risk is very high, water shortages are
common, and water restrictions are typically
voluntary or mandated. This category is the 10th
percentile, which roughly equates to a 1 in 10 year
drought.
• An intensity level of D3 corresponds to 'Extreme
Drought'. At this level, major crop and pasture
losses are common, fire risk is extreme, and
widespread water shortages can be expected
 requiring restrictions. Duration and impacts are
critical in looking at D3 droughts, which fall into
the 5th percentile, or a 1 in 20 year type of
drought.
• The final intensity level, D4, corresponds to
'Exceptional Drought'. At this level, there are
exceptional and widespread crop and pasture
losses, fire risk, shortages of water in reservoirs,
streams, and wells that yield water emergencies.
Worst on the scale, D4 can loosely be likened to a
"once-in-a-generation" type of drought noted by
the 2nd percentile, or a 1 in 50 year drought.
• The practical use of the U.S. Drought Monitor is to
serve as a tool for decision making, drought
planning through monitoring, early warning, and
prediction. It also plays a key role in heightening
awareness of drought as a hazard through
dissemination by various media sources and state
and federal agencies. Indices that are linked to
impacts, such as the U.S. Drought Monitor, can be
subsequently used to develop triggers (or
thresholds for alerts) for communities to take
action to respond to drought conditions.
• The success of the U.S. Drought Monitor has been
leveraged internationally into an expanded North
American Drought Monitor product. This product
has been provided on a monthly basis through the
collaboration of meteorological, hydrological, and
agricultural agencies in the United States, Canada,
and Mexico. This product has served as a model
for other international efforts to improve
capabilities in drought early warning in particularly
vulnerable parts of the world.
• As we now turn our attention to drought impacts,
let's consider the contributors to a negative impact
from drought. Risk from drought leading to an
impact has two components – societal
vulnerability and the duration and severity of a
drought that defines its condition. When, for a
certain drought condition, vulnerability exists, an
impact will occur.
• As an example, consider a reservoir for a nuclear
power plant. There is a minimum water level at
which the power plant can obtain water for steam
generation and cooling to safely operate. When a
drought condition, defined by its duration and
severity, causes the water level to drop below that
limit, an impact – the suspension of power plant
operation – is realized.
• As we can see, drought condition is but one side of
a two-sided coin. We cannot fully understand
drought without understanding its impacts. While
the graph of the area of the United State in severe
and extreme drought over time helps us highlight
periods of expansive drought in the country,
specifically the 1930s and 1950s, information on
the impacts during these and other periods is also
needed to understand the consequences of these
historic drought periods. Drought condition and
societal vulnerability together provide lessons
learned on historic impacts and, hopefully, how
they can be minimized or even avoided in the
future.
What is the general state of drought in the United States?
The answer is that drought is almost always with us - there
are very limited times when less than 5% of the U.S. has
experienced drought during the past 100 years or more. To
improve our understanding of drought and its risk, we must
be diligent in assessing impact whenever possible. This
effort, in turn, will also serve to begin building a baseline of
impacts from which we can compare future droughts or
gauge the influence of changes to our vulnerability of
climate.
• Drought might not offer the same immediate and
dramatic visuals as the violent images associated
with hurricanes and tornadoes. This masks the fact
that drought impacts have a huge price tag. In fact,
droughts rank second in types of phenomena
associated with billion-dollar weather disasters
during the past three decades. With annual losses
over 5 Billion dollars per year, drought is a serious
hazard with substantial socioeconomic risks for the
United States.
• Diligent assessment of drought is accomplished
through systematic categorization and reporting of
impacts. By considering the economic,
environmental, and social impacts of drought,
specific events and underlying meteorological
contributors may be studied in order to improve
future societal preparedness. The National
Drought Mitigation Center's Drought Impact
Reporter is a web-based tool that allows
individuals to characterize drought impacts in a
manner that used to be limited to ad-hoc local
information collection.
The Drought Impact Reporter is on-line at
"droughtreporter.UNL.EDU" and its developers encourage
weather service personnel and other drought observers to
use the online form to submit drought impacts and photos.
Before-and-after photos are ideal for showing the contrast
between normal and drought conditions.
• One reflection of the increased need to focus on
impacts is the requirement (as of June 2008) for
Weather Forecast Offices to issue a Drought
Information Statement at least monthly when the
Drought Monitor shows any part of their area in
D2 or worse conditions.
• We have established the link between impacts and
risk. So how do we manage risk? Both short-term
reductions in vulnerability or mitigation and long-
term structural changes or adaptation, are key risk
management strategies. An example of mitigation
is prudent watering of plants. An example of
adaptation is the introduction of drought-resistant
plants.
 • While compiling individual drought impacts seems
fairly straightforward, providing economic loss
estimates is not. Risk management is often
overlooked in the rush by society to rebuild and
rehabilitate - or to 'get back to normal as soon as
possible' An additional consideration should be to
make changes in practices or infrastructure in a
way that reduces risk for the future.
• The impacts of drought can be both direct such as
decreases in dairy production and indirect as seen
by increases in the price of cheese. It is worth
noting that not all impacts from drought are
automatically negative. Drought can be good for
construction, maintenance and repair of
infrastructure, and airlines. It can also be helpful to
some crops, for example, wine grapes during key
development periods.
• Impacts information has significant economic and
social benefit. By aggregating drought impacts into
state, regional, and national assessments,
weaknesses in infrastructure or practices that lead
to vulnerability can be identified and corrected.
Impacts information heightens the awareness of
all, from decision makers to citizens.
• Now let's turn our attention to drought prediction.
The most prominent predictive product focused on
drought for the general public is the U.S. Seasonal
Drought Outlook. This product is issued on a bi-
weekly schedule by NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center (or CPC). For the period extending from the
release date to the end of the third month
following the release date, the Outlook
characterizes medium-term trends in drought
persistence, enhancement, and reduction.#
The Outlook displays 4 drought change categories on the
U.S. map, including drought persistence or intensification;
drought ongoing with some improvement; drought likely to
improve with impacts easing; and drought development
likely. Let's define each of these categories:
Drought persistence or intensification means that drought
intensity categories as measured by such composite
indicators as the U.S. Drought Monitor either do not change
or grow worse.
Drought ongoing with some improvement indicates more
limited improvement than designated by the other
improvement category, usually because surface moisture
conditions are expected to improve while hydrologic
drought persists, or the improvement is expected early or
late in the forecast period.
Drought likely to improve with impacts easing implies at
least a 1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor
intensity levels. This results in drought impacts easing,
meaning the impact on crops, water supplies, etc. is less
serious.
Drought development likely means that drought has a
better than 50 percent chance of developing sometime in
the forecast period.
The drought forecast does not presently distinguish
between agricultural or hydrological drought, although
appropriate comments are often made in the discussion
accompanying the forecast.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook tracks areas experiencing
moderate drought or worse, corresponding to the intensity
levels of D1 or higher as defined by the U.S. Drought
Monitor, and is verified using the change in drought
intensity over the forecasted period.
The Drought Outlook is based upon a broad array of
forecast tools and drought-related indices and indicators.
There are five forecast tools that are especially important:
1) the historical Palmer Drought Index; 2) Soil Moisture
Forecasts; 3) Seasonal Temperature Outlook; 4) Seasonal
Precipitation Outlook; and 5) Short-term Forecasts of the
elements described above excluding the Palmer index.
Let's look at each of these five underlying forecast tools and
see what role they play in the Drought Outlook.
The Palmer Drought Index (or PDI) is a long-term measure
of moisture based on water balance equations using
temperature and precipitation. PDI values are best
correlated with 7 to 10 month precipitation anomalies.
The PDI is a key measure of drought, so expected changes
have a strong impact on the Drought Outlook. However,
the PDI does poorly with short-term agricultural drought,
and that is the reason the Crop Moisture Index, which uses
a meteorological approach to monitor week-to-week crop
conditions, was developed.
In this example, the map from NOAA's National Climatic
Data Center indicates the probability of the PDI improved
to better than negative 2 point zero by December (which
means basically emerging from drought). The PDI shows a
tendency for drought to hang on in many parts of the
Southeast, but improve in the northern and western fringes
of the drought region. Verification of the drought outlook
using the January 1, 2008 Drought Monitor shows that this
is a pretty good description of how drought evolved during
this period.
The Soil Moisture Map, produced by the University of
Washington, shows probabilities of soil moisture being
normal or above normal in 3 months based on past data. In
this example, the map shows a tendency for dryness to
linger in the Northwest and northern Plains (the areas in
yellow) and stay moist in the southern Plains (areas in
blue).
In this case, short- and long-range forecasts of precipitation
took priority (note the moisture in the Northwest), such
that little weight was put on this forecast tool.
In the Southeast, the lack of dryness shown in the
probability map supported a general forecast of at least
some improvement.
The Seasonal Temperature Outlook from CPC shows areas
that could see anomalous evaporation and enhanced
drought risk. In this example, the elevated probability of
above-normal temperature in the southwestern U.S. is
reflected in the Drought Outlook by persistence of drought
The Seasonal Precipitation Outlook also from CPC shows
wet areas that should see drought improvement and dry
areas that might see persisting or worsening drought. Low
skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts means that shorter-
range forecasts carry considerable weight, especially the
initial 2 weeks. In this example, the probabilistic outlooks in
the western U.S. are reflected in the Drought Outlook as
improvement in the northwest and persistence in the
southwest.
Rounding out the five tools is a NOAA composite of 2-week
short-term forecasts of soil moisture, temperature, and
precipitation. Five-day rainfall forecasts along with
temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture forecasts for
the initial 2 weeks play an important role, as their skill
usually surpasses the seasonal forecasts. In this example,
the short-term forecast for precipitation over the Florida
peninsula influences the decision to show some
improvement over Florida in the Drought Outlook.
The Drought Outlooks are informally verified using "before"
and "after" Drought Monitor maps and change maps,
posted on the CPC web site. The difference maps subtract
intensities indicated by the Drought Monitors before and
after the forecast and show in colors where drought
increased or decreased. In this example, there was good
agreement (meaning that there was improvement where it
was forecast in space and time) over the Mississippi Valley
and upstate New York, with mixed results elsewhere, when
comparing the Outlook with the actual difference shown in
the lower right map.
Another way to look at verification is to track the skill over
time. The Drought Outlooks are verified quantitatively at
CPC using a grid point count procedure to determine
percent of area forecast "correct."
The top graph shows quantitative verification in blue, with
persistence in red. A comparison is made with a forecast
based on persisting drought to arrive at an informal skill
score, which is calculated by subtracting the verification
from the persistence, as shown in the bottom graph.
Verification scores are maintained internally at CPC and
may be posted on the Web when the process is automated.
For drought applications, forecast models could be
improved through better analysis of initial conditions, and
greater understanding of atmosphere, land and vegetation
interactions. In this example, the major anomalies in the
latter part of the 55-year comparison between observed
and ocean-based simulations of precipitation agree, but the
comparison diverges from there. Research continues to
help us gain a better understanding of the interactions
between regional moisture deficits and the Earth,
Atmosphere and Ocean system.
Just as specialized observing networks and indices and
indicators address specific sector-based drought impacts,
specialized forecasts are also generated. Here, the risk of
wildland fire related to drought is presented in a map-
based seasonal forecast.
The forecast needs of the hydrological community warrant
specialized forecasting tools as well, particularly in the
western United States. Here, a River Forecast Center
application highlights streamflow conditions, and basin-
specific streamflow forecasts are presented in a map for
the benefit of reservoir managers.
Having discussed drought definitions, monitoring, impacts,
and prediction, how can this information be brought
together in a meaningful way for NWS staff to convey to
the public? First, let's consider the context in which the
drought information will be used. On the one hand,
drought information covers a time scale from the present
weather conditions to longer-term climate outlooks. On the
other hand, drought is considered by researchers,
information translators, and operational entities. Clearly,
National Weather Service field offices are focused on the
operational, near- and medium-term delivery of
information, more or less within the lower right quadrant of
the graphic shown here.
As we have already discussed, "drought.gov" is a handy and
rich resource for drought information that cuts across
geographic and sectoral boundaries. This primary presence
for NIDIS highlights three so-called 'showcase' products –
the Drought Monitor, the Seasonal Drought Outlook, and
the Drought Impacts Reporter. These three products help
us answer critical questions about drought such as:
Where are drought conditions now?
How is the drought affecting me?
Will the drought continue?
One of the great strengths of "drought.gov" is its structure
as a web-based portal. Portals allow information from many
different sources to be consolidated in text and map
presentations using agreed-upon standards with
communities of users. This flexibility is essential given the
interagency collaborations that are necessary to
understand and respond to drought.
When it comes to issuing drought statements, the National
Weather Service operates under the Drought Services
Directive. This directive calls for field offices to issue a
drought information statement (or DGT) whenever severe
drought or worse, as defined by the Drought Monitor,
exists within a field office's area of responsibility. Additional
notification is permissible at the discretion of an office.
Beyond the issuance of drought information statements,
National Weather Service Offices can follow these best
practices to optimally serve the public interest with timely
and accurate information on drought. Listed here on these
two slides, are the ten best practices based upon
organizational structures and preparedness steps that
should be taken before drought strikes. Here are a few
practices worth highlighting:
Create a local drought team
Collect and write a press release on impacts
Best practices
alarm' for drought through early warning. The tools under
development by NIDIS and in coordination with other
agencies and nations under the Group on Earth
Observations, holds tremendous promise for making a
robust, international drought early warning system a
reality.
To top
7.4 Closing
Summary
In closing for this session on "Understanding Drought," let's
recall the definition of drought, the resource that is
available through NIDIS at "drought.gov" to communicate
drought status, and the rich community of drought experts
and information sources. If applied effectively, this
information will allow us to help the public understand
drought and better prepare for its onset in the future.

Participate or host meetings with local, state or other

officials
Develop a local drought Web page
Get involved with the drought monitor list server at the url
listed here.
For other ideas, please read over all 10 steps following this
presentation.

To summarize, National Weather Service Offices can rely on

a broad community of partners in climate services,
including other NOAA offices and laboratories, State
Climatologists, Regional Climate Centers, and universities
and Regional Integrated Science and Assessments teams to
address drought and other hazards questions. While
climate focal points are the primary resource for engaging
these groups, all field office personnel should understand
the array of partners. You are especially encouraged to
contact the National Drought Mitigation Center if you have
related questions.

To wrap up this session, let's think again about the context

for drought time scales and research to operations
endeavors. Clearly, the public expects NOAA and other
science agencies to effectively pull together information on
drought conditions with the best available monitoring,
prediction, and research to provide user-relevant tools and
products. We know that "drought.gov" is a growing
repository for such tools and products. But there is one
further step that we must take and that is the engagement
with the preparedness community (which is a major
objective under NIDIS). Only through this step can we make
drought information relevant for drought planning activities
that reduce vulnerability, improve mitigation strategies,
and ultimately allow us as a society to improve adaptation
for the long-haul.
Engagement with the public that actually can make a
difference requires us to be able to effectively 'sound the