AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH

© 2016,Science Huβ, http://www.scihub.org/AJSIR

ISSN: 2153-649X, doi:10.5251/ajsir.2016.7.4.88.94

Modeling Road Accident Fatalities in a Subregion Of Ghana

Frempong,N.Ka, Yirenkyi, P.Aa ,Nakua, Eb ,Dontwi,I. Ka
a
Department of Mathematics, College of Science,
KNUST, Kumasi-Ghana
b
Community Health
KNUST, Kumasi-Ghana

Address of correspondence: Department of Mathematics

College of Science
KNUST-Kumasi
Ghana
Cell number: +23327722137
Email: nkf.cos@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
Road accident fatalities have been analyzed over the past decades in many countries.
Specifically Ghana, not many studies have looked at the occurrence and incidence of road
accident fatalities due to any possible risk exposures. In this study we seek to identify possible
significant risk factors on the occurrence and incidence of road accident fatalities. Data on road
accidents in the Central Region of Ghana were obtained from the Building and Road Research
Institute, from 2005 to 2008. Using this data, Poisson regression analysis to model the count of
road accident fatalities were developed and estimated. These models take into account the type
of road network, year of the crash, the number of accidents per period and kilometer post
measured (distance). The best model chosen was based on the candidate model with the
minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). However, the presence of overdispersion in the
Poisson models chosen resulted in the use of Negative Binomial regression to validate those
models. The results in the occurrence revealed that, the number of accidents per periods,
kilometer post were statistically significant. The mean occurrence of road accident fatalities on
type of road network N1 was 6.52 times more that type road network R89. An increase in
kilometer post reduced the mean occurrence of road accident fatalities by 0.5%. Results for the
incidence revealed that, incidence of road accident fatalities in 2007 was 1.42 times more than
that of 2008 in the region. At any fixed year, kilometer post and the number of accidents, road
network N1 had 98% more incidence of road accident fatalities than that of road network R89. A
unit increase in kilometer post measured reduced the mean incidence of road accident fatalities in
the central region by 0.2%. We conclude that occurrence and incidence of road accident fatalities
are higher on the national roads compared to the Regional-minor roads.
Keywords: Kilometer post, Poisson regression, Negative binomial regression, Akaike
Information Criterion (AIC)

INTRODUCTION middle-income countries, because of the absence of

reliable national data sources, estimates for most
Road traffic crashes kill an estimated 1.3 million
countries are based on regional extrapolations,
people worldwide annually (9th cause of death) and
Afukaar et al.(2008). Road traffic accidents which are
account for 2.2% of the total global burden of
generally unintended and preventable are a common
disease, measured in terms of lost years of healthy
risk to every day to life. It is estimated, road traffic
life W.H.O(2004). Although 85% of these deaths and
crashes will increase about 87% in low and middle-
90% of the burden of disease associated with road
income countries within the next 20 years, if
traffic injuries are estimated to occur in low-and
 Am. J. Sci. Ind. Res., 2016, 7(4): 88-94

preventable measures are not put in place (Afukaar crash prediction models for two lane rural highways
et al.,2008; Afukaar et al.,2003) . Records from in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, Ackaah(2010) used
national road safety commission (NRSC) indicated the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative
that between 1991 and 2006, one hundred and fifty Binomial (NB) error structure to estimate model
six thousand three hundred and forty eight (156,348) parameters.
road accidents were reported in Ghana. During the
An identification of the causes of road accident
same period one hundred and eighty nine thousand
fatalities is becoming more important with the growth
(189,000) casualties were recorded. In 2001, Ghana
of technology, population, number of vehicles and the
was rated the second highest road traffic accident-
need for their use. The motivation for this study was
prone country among six West African countries with
based on findings from papers (Afukaar et al.,2008;
73% deaths per 10,000 accidents. A recent report
Afukaar et al.,2003; Damsere-Dery et al.,2009). In
according to World Health Ranking based on Road
this paper, we seek to model the occurrence and
Traffic Accident in 2012, ranked Ghana 41st in the
incidence of road accident fatalities given possible
world with road fatalities per 100,000 accidents being
risk factors such as type of road network, year of the
28.1. In recent years, Ghana has improved on its
crash, the number of accidents per period and
road safety, through campaigns policy initiatives by
kilometer post measured (distance).
the NRSC. Despite efforts, the problem is increasing
at a faster rate in developing countries due to rapid Data description and Research Methodology:
motorization with high speed, single lane roads and Secondary data was obtained from Building and
other factors. Road traffic injuries and fatalities Road Research Institute(BRRI), Kumasi from year
continue to increase in Ghana. In their paper, 2005 to year 2008 for the Central Region of Ghana.
majority of road traffic fatalities (61.2%) and injuries The Central Region is the central point linking
(52.3%) occurred on roads in rural areas (Afukaar et Ghana’s capital to the newly discovered Oil field sites
al.,2008; Abdel-Aty and Radwan,2000). in the Western Region. Over the period (2005-2008)
there has been increased traffic volume along the
About 58% more people died on roads in rural areas
roads. The data consists of 953 observations. There
than urban areas and generally more severe crashes
are 10 route numbers used in the data namely N1
occurred on rural roads compared with urban roads.
(from Weija dam Accra to Obronikrom in Central
A followed up report on Road Traffic Crashes in
Region), N8 (from Yamoransa Junction to Assin
Ghana by (Afukaar et al.,2008) found out that overall
Praso), IR1 (from Otopease via Ajumako to
crash numbers in 2007 represented a 3.2% increase
Mankessim roundabout), R15 (from Swedru-Adeiso
over the 2006 number of accidents whilst fatalities
Junction to Apostolic Church, Nyanyanor), IR2 (from
increased by 10.1%. Though there had been an
Agona Mintah to UCEW Junction), R82 (from Cape
increase of 10.1% in road traffic fatalities during the
Coast Technical Junction to Market Area, Twifo
period, the existing trend shows that fatalities have
Praso), R62 (from Catholic Hospital, Apam to
been growing at a projected rate of about 83 deaths
Orphanage, Swedru), R41 (from Breman Asikuma to
per annum since 1991. However from 2001, this rate
Mfranor JSS), R89 (Dominase Police Station to Lorry
has dropped to 57 deaths per year. According to their
Station, Mankessim) and R81 (from Pentecost,
study, these growth rates appeared to have been
Nuamakrom to Police Station, Twifo Praso). Each of
driven largely by fatalities recorded by buses and
these route network classified have unique
heavy goods vehicles on the roads in non-urban
characteristics used uniquely to named or specified.
areas, mostly on the national trunk road network
The data was extracted from National Road Accident
where vehicular speeds were generally high. A
data bank from the BRRI for the modelling purposes,
glance at any recent issue of road accident fatalities
per observation we obtained seven variables. This
in journals reveals that traditional method of
includes type of road network also known as route
analyzing count data remains popular. In the
number, year of crash, kilometre post measured
research paper on modeling traffic accident
(distance to locations on the road which may be a
occurrence and involvement in America, (Abdel_Aty
town, junction, school etc. where the crash occurred),
and Radwan,2000) used Negative Binomial modeling
number of accidents per period, number of fatalities,
technique to model the frequency of accident
number of non-fatalities and total number of fatalities
occurrence and involvement. Accident data over a
and non-fatalities. The variable number of fatalities in
period of 3 years, accounting for 1606 accidents on a
the dataset was specified as the dependent variable
principal arterial in Central Florida, were used to
whereas year, route number, kilometre post
estimate the model. In other research, paper on

89

measured and number of accidents were specified as
the independent variables.
Specification of the Poisson regression model:
The Poisson regression is a member of a class of
Generalized Linear Models (GLM), which is an
extension of traditional linear models that allows the
mean of a population to depend on a linear predictor
through a nonlinear link function and allows the
response probability distribution to be any member of
an exponential family of distributions, (McClluagh and
Neder, 1989)
The primary equation of the model is
P (Yi = yi ) =
(1.0)
Where yi = 0,1, 2,.... is the number of road accident
th
fatalities, for i observation, i = 1,2,….953. The
expected number of road accident fatalities per the
period is given by, E (Yi ) = mi . In
regression, it is assumed that the dependent variable
Yi has a Poisson distribution given the independent
variables year of crash, type of road networks,
number of accidents and kilometre post. The Poisson
regression model for the occurrence of road accident
fatality assuming discrete year of crash is given as:
log (mi )= int ercept + a j + b k + d1 x1i + d2 x2i
(1.1)
Where x1 represent number of accidents, x2 represent
kilometre post, a j , b k , d1 , d2 are regression
parameters for year of crash, types of road network,
number of accidents and kilometre post respectively.
The Poisson regression model for incidence of road
accident fatality is given as:
æmi ö
log ç
ç ÷ int ercept + int ercept + a
÷=
÷ + b k + d1 x1i + d2 x2i
ç ÷
è Ni ø
j
which implies
log (mi )= log (Ni )+ int ercept + a j + b k + d1 x1i + d2 x2i
log (mi Ni ) is the log of the incidence and it is
modelled as a linear function of the independent
variables. The expected number of incidence (event)
per the period is given as:
Am. J. Sci. Ind. Res., 2016, 7(4): 88-94
E (Yi )= Ni X i¢b
where N i corrects for sample difference i.e. the
sampled observations exposed. The major
assumption of Poisson model is that the mean and
the variance are equal, E (Yi ) = mi = var (Yi ). If
var (Yi )> E (Yi ) then there is over-dispersion. If
var (Yi )< E (Yi ), then under-dispersion has
occurred. Estimation involves estimating the
regression parameters specifically using the
maximum likelihood estimation method. The
e- mi miyi Likelihood Ratio and Wald test statistics for
significance of parameters are implored. The popular
yi! measures of the adequacy of the model fit are
deviance and Pearson Chi-Square (c 2 ). If
statistical model is correct then both quantities are
2
asymptotically distributed as c statistics with n - p
degrees of freedom (df); where n is the number of
Poisson independent observations and p is the number of
fitted parameters. Thus if the regression model is
adequate, the expected value of both the deviance
and Pearson Chi-Square is equal (or close) to n – p
(both the scaled deviance @1 and the scaled
2
Pearson Chi-Square: c df @1 ), otherwise there
could be doubt about validity of the model.
Negative Binomial Regression: Another count
model which allows for overdispersion is the negative
binomial regression model (NB). Thus NB model
provides one way of modelling heterogeneity in a
population. The relationship between variance and
mean for NB distribution has the form
Var (Yi ) = mi + k mi2
Where k is an additional distribution parameter that
must be estimated or set to a fixed value. The NB
model is only an exponential family when k is
known. One important characteristic of the NB
that: distribution is that it naturally accounts for
(1.2) overdispersion due to its variance which is always
greater than the variance of Poisson distribution with
the same mean mij . For this reason the NB model
has greater flexibility in modeling the relationship
between the expected value and the variance of Yij
than the highly restrictive Poisson model.
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 Am. J. Sci. Ind. Res., 2016, 7(4): 88-94

In selecting several candidate models, the Akaike’s R81 2 1 6 6 15

Information Criterion (AIC) as an index used in a
Total 708 693 555 586 2542
number of areas as an aid to choosing between
competing models. It is defined as - 2 Lm + 2 p where We was observed that the distribution of the count is
positively skewed based on the occurrence of road
Lm is the maximized log-likelihood and p is the accidents at different types of road network as
number of parameters in the model. The index takes illustated in appendix, figure 1.
into account both statistical goodness of fit and the
number of parameters that have to be estimated to
achieve this particular degree of fit. The model with 400
minimum AIC value provides an adequate fit to the

Total Number
data.
RESULTS 200
20
A total of 2,542 road accidents which occurred on the 05
various routes recorded were considered for the 0
analysis from year 2005 to year 2008. Table 1 N1 IR1 IR2 R62 R89
presents a cross tabulation on the number of road
accidents at different road networks (routes) by year Type of road network
of crash in a chosen order. In the data, the highest
number of road accidents i.e. 708 was recorded in
the year 2005, representing 28% of the total number Fig. 1. Bar Chart showing the number of Road
of road accidents over the given period. Within the Accidents in Central Region from 2005 to 2008 at
period of four years, type of road network N1 different route.
recorded the highest number of road accidents (i.e.
1,275 representing 50% of the total number of We observed from figure 2 that road network N1
accidents). Route number R81 recorded the lowest recorded the highest road accident fatalities over the
number of road accidents (i.e. 15 representing 0.6% four years whiles R81 recorded the very lowest road
of the total number of accidents). Over the four years, accident fatalities in the region. A test of significance
road network N1 recorded high numbers of road of the correlation between number of road crashes
accidents followed by N8 whiles R89 and R81 and number of fatalities was significant,
recorded the least numbers. r  0.25( pval  0.023) . This result means that a
Table 1. Annual distribution of Road Traffic in positive correlation exists between number of road
Central Region from 2005 to 2008 at different road crashes and number of road accident fatalities.
networks
Type of
Road 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 120
number of fatalities

networks 100
200
N1 299 362 323 291 1275 80 5
N8 80 82 54 66 282 60 200
6
IR1 96 58 29 65 248 40 200
R15 41 63 59 50 213 20 7
IR2 87 36 22 38 183 0
N8

R15

R82
R62
R41
R89
R81
N1

IR1

IR2

R82 58 53 29 41 181
R62 20 19 15 18 72 Type of road network
R41 18 11 17 5 51
Fig. 2: Bar Chart showing the number of road accident
R89 7 8 1 6 22 fatalities from 2005 to 2008 at different road networks.

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 Am. J. Sci. Ind. Res., 2016, 7(4): 88-94

The fitted model for fatal occurrence : In modeling statistics are indicators of a good fit. The fitted NB
the occurrence of the number of road accident model for the occurrence of road accident fatalities is
fatalities, eight different candidate models were shown below in equation M1.
developed. In the selection of the best model among ˆ ) = - 0.6629 - 0.0389 IR + 0.0693IR + 1.8747 N + 0.0624 N
log (m 1 2 1 8
the eight fitted models, the model with the minimum - 0.6710 R - 0.6857 R - 0.2416 R - 1.8498R + 0.0065R
15 41 62 81 82

AIC = 1532.154 was selected as the best fit to the - 0.0053 post + 0.0579no _ acc ( M 1)
data. However, issues of overdispersion were The estimate for the intercept -0.6629, is the log of
detected and the fitted model was validated using the the mean occurrence of road accident fatality when
NB model. The parameter estimates for the selected no independent variable is considered in the model.
model presented in Table 2. A summary of the Significant positive parameter estimates for the type
goodness of fit statistics the deviance was 784.093 of road network (route_no) N1 indicated that the
with 941 DF. The deviance statistic value divided by mean occurrence of road accident fatalities was
degrees of freedom was 0.833. The Pearson Chi- higher on the network than R89 (the reference
Square statistic value divided by degrees of freedom category). The variables kilometre post and number
was 1.4866. The Log Likelihood statistic value was - of accidents were significant in the model.
654.356 and an AIC value of 1336.711. All the
Table 2: Parameter Estimates for model of occurrence
Analysis Of Parameter Estimates
Parameter DF Estimate Standard Wald 95% Confidence Chi- Pr > ChiSq
Error Limits Square

Intercept 1 -0.6629 0.4027 -1.4521 0.1262 2.71 0.0997

route_no IR1 1 -0.0389 0.4419 -0.9051 0.8273 0.01 0.9299
route_no IR2 1 0.0693 0.4952 -0.9013 1.0398 0.02 0.8888
route_no N1 1 1.8747 0.5586 0.7799 2.9695 11.26 0.0008
route_no N8 1 0.0624 0.4264 -0.7733 0.8982 0.02 0.8836
route_no R15 1 -0.6710 0.4898 -1.6311 0.2891 1.88 0.1707
route_no R41 1 -0.6857 0.5608 -1.7849 0.4135 1.49 0.2215
route_no R62 1 -0.2416 0.4891 -1.2002 0.7171 0.24 0.6214
route_no R81 1 -1.8498 1.1067 -4.0188 0.3192 2.79 0.0946
route_no R82 1 0.0065 0.4382 -0.8523 0.8653 0.00 0.9882
route_no R89 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 . .
kilopost 1 -0.0053 0.0014 -0.0080 -0.0025 13.80 0.0002
no_acc 1 0.0579 0.0155 0.0276 0.0882 14.01 0.0002
Dispersion 1 0.8858 0.1272 0.6364 1.1351

The fitted model for the incidence : The deviance
of the model M2 is 837.576 with 938 DF. The
deviance divided by degrees of freedom was 0.8929.
The Pearson Chi-Square divided by degrees of
freedom was 1.154. The Log Likelihood was -
622.4944 and an AIC value of 1280.989.
The fitted model for the incidence of road accident
fatalities was the negative binomial regression model
log  ˆ   2.1070  0.1344t05  0.2139t06  0.3480t07
0.0319 IR1  0.1785 IR2  0.6818 N1  0.1045 N8
0.6837 R15  0.4974 R41  0.0907 R62  1.4156 R81
 0.0128 R82  0.0022 post  0.0157 no _ acc.........................( M 2)
The model M2 consists of some significant parameter
estimates. The positive parameter estimates for the
years 2005, 2006 and 2007 indicated a higher mean
incidence of road accident fatalities than 2008. Also
positive parameter estimates for route_no IR1, N1
and N8 indicated that mean incidence of road
accident fatalities was higher compared to route_no
R89. Negative parameter estimates for route_no IR2,
R15, R41, R62, R81 and R82, shows that mean
incidence of road accident fatalities was lower
compared to route_no R89.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
Exploratory analysis on the number of accident and
number of road accident fatalities over a period of
time showed that 50% [48%, 52%] of the total

92

number of road accidents and 59% [55%, 63%] of the
total number of fatalities occurred on road network
N1. Similarly, 6% [5%, 7%] of the total number of
road accidents and 0.2% of the total number of
fatalities occurred on road network R81. To account
for the effects of year of crash, type of road networks,
kilometre post and number of accidents on the
occurrence of road accident fatality, Poisson models
were developed and fitted. Based on the concept of
AIC a suitable Poisson model was chosen and
validated to obtain a Negative Binomial model M1.
The results from the model estimated that the
occurrence of road accident fatalities on road network
N1 (exp {1.8747} = 6.52) was 6.52 times more
compared to road network R89 conditioned on other
significant variables in the model. The significance of
kilometre post estimates that a unit increase reduces
the mean number of occurrence of road accident
fatalities by 0.5 % (1 – exp{-0.0053}= 0.005). To
account for the incidence of road accident fatality,
some candidate Poisson models were fitted. The
model with the minimum AIC was chosen and
validated to obtain a Negative Binomial model M2.
Significant year of crash in M2 revealed that year
2008 had the lowest incidence cases of road accident
fatalities. The model estimated that at any given road
network, kilometre post and number of accidents,
year 2005 showed (exp {0.1344} =1.14) 1.14 times
more incidence cases compared to year 2008. For a
fixed year of crash, kilometre post and number of
accidents, the incidence of road accident fatalities on
road network N1 (exp{0.6818}=1.98) was 98% more
compared to R89. The model M2 also showed that
road network R89 had the lowest incidence of fatality.
a unit increase in kilometre post reduced the mean
incidence of road accident fatalities by 0.2% (exp{-
0.0022}= 0.998). The chosen models were able to
predict the observed records from the data.
From the analysis of the study, we have shown that
there were significant effects of type of road
networks, kilometre post and number of accidents on
the occurrence of road accident fatalities. We have
also shown that year of crash, kilometre post and
type of road networks had a significant effect on the
incidence of road fatalities in the model. We conclude
that occurrence and incidence of road accident
fatalities are higher on the national roads compared
to the Regional-minor roads. We also conclude that
kilometer post is highly significant to the reduction in
the occurrence and incidence of road accident
fatalities. For safety, we recommend steps which may
93
Am. J. Sci. Ind. Res., 2016, 7(4): 88-94
contribute to reducing road accident fatalities
includes measures to reduce vehicles speeds in
settlements (distance to towns) providing early speed
post warnings. We also encourage the road safety
education to users on the national roads.
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