Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
CARL UNGERER
DALLAS ROGERS
School of Political Science and International Studies
University of Queensland
St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
147
148 C. Ungerer and D. Rogers
Although horrific in nature, a bioterrorist attack against humans may be less devas-
tating in terms of the economic losses that a nation would suffer as opposed to a delib-
erate agroterrorist attack.5 Policymakers and threat assessment agencies have tended to
group agroterrorism alongside human bioterrorism because of the belief that the technical
constraints for these two types of attacks are similar, and that both are low probability–
high consequence events.6 Moreover, the domestic agency responsible for threat assess-
ments, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), continues to rank both
the threat of bioterrorism and agroterrorism in Australia as low.7 However, grouping
these two types of attacks together not only underplays the lower capability require-
ments of an agroterrorist attack, but also reduces the number and scale of response
mechanisms put into place to deal with this type of incident.
This article argues that the threat of agroterrorism to Australia is real and should be
taken seriously.8 Structural weaknesses within the agribusiness sector together with the
lower capability requirements for such an attack highlight the current vulnerabilities that
exist in the Australian agricultural sector. Furthermore, the importance of the agricul-
tural sector to Australia’s overall economic well-being underscores the need for greater
prudence in re-assessing this threat.9 As this study shows, the threat of agroterrorism to
Australia has either been underassessed or overlooked. Although the threat may be lower
than the more conventional means of terrorist attacks such as bombings or highjackings,
the threat is not zero. As such, government authorities should be more aware of poten-
tial threat scenarios and better prepared for an act of agroterrorism within Australia.
tacks using biological weapons over the past 50 years.13 Although none of these docu-
mented cases of agroterrorism was of a scale that threatened national economies, they
illustrate a clear precedence for the terrorist use of biological agents to target agricul-
tural commodities.
Pig and poultry farming are both highly intensive industries, with the majority of
both being undertaken in large sheds to produce controlled and stable environments that
are conducive to intensive animal husbandry techniques. Again, both pig and poultry
farming is heavily concentrated in the southern States of New South Wales and Victoria.24
The geographic concentration of livestock production and farming in coastal and
southern parts of Australia, which are climatically the coolest and wettest areas of the
country, provides a favorable environment for the release of a Foreign Animal Disease
(FAD). In parts of Victoria, for example, the concentration of breeding animals at some
farms is extremely high, which would further contribute to the ability of an agroterrorist
to instigate an effective outbreak of infectious disease because of the high level of animal-
to-animal contact that takes place. Also, the fact that all three major livestock animals
susceptible to these types of diseases are concentrated in the southern regions of Australia
means that a terrorist attack would most likely be executed in these areas, where a
disease such as FMD could affect all three species—cattle, sheep, and pigs—simulta-
neously.
Agribusiness in Australia has changed significantly over the last 20 years. It is now
much more intensive, with many large corporations consolidating farms to cut costs and
increase both profit margins and competitiveness in international markets. The competi-
tion in consumer markets, both domestically and internationally, continues to drive prices
down, forcing farmers to become more efficient in their farming practices. Like other
Western countries, agricultural holdings in Australia generally follow an “80/20” rule,
whereby 80 percent of the commodities are owned by the top 20 percent of compa-
nies.25 As a result, animal rearing has become a more concentrated, intensive, and highly
technical business.26 Unfortunately, this places animals at greater risk of outbreaks of
infectious diseases whether by an agroterrorist attack or by the accidental introduction
of a disease.27 Moreover, to increase the quantity and quality of meat produced for the
market, cattle are now subjected to higher stress levels, which in turn reduce their ability
to overcome infection through immune response, leading to longer periods of infection
and higher numbers of pathogens being shed in bodily secretions.28
Although modern farming techniques such as contract calf-raising (where cattle are
transported back and forth from farms designed to accelerate their growth) are not yet
commonplace in Australia, growing pressure on agribusiness is resulting in its gradual
introduction. Any technique that involves transporting livestock to different locations
increases the probability that small clusters of disease will rapidly become major out-
breaks at key focal points. In areas that practice contract calf-raising, young cattle could
be reared on a particular farm, transported to larger feedlots for fattening, and then
transported to slaughterhouses for processing, all within relatively short periods of time.29
Added to this is the huge distance that livestock can travel from their rearing yards to
auction yards and then on to new owners’ yards. In Australia, it is possible for livestock
to travel long distances in a matter of three days, which is enough time to disguise an
infected animal through the incubation period of the disease.30
Most modern farms in Australia employ close feeding and watering conditions that
provide a further mechanism for infectious agents to spread. Physical contact, increased
exposure to fecal matter (which can be highly concentrated with pathogens), as well as
the contamination of water and feeding troughs all ensure that FADs will spread quickly
once introduced into a target population.31 As has been the case in various animal dis-
ease outbreaks in Europe, the movement of people and farming equipment is also a
cause of widening disease outbreaks.32
Farm security is an area of agribusiness that has received limited attention in Aus-
tralia. Intensive livestock industries such as poultry and porcine exhibit relatively effi-
cient security mechanisms, whereas the openness of cattle farms and feedlots suggests
that unauthorized access to these animals would be extremely difficult to control or
police. Security of auction yards is another vulnerability that could be exploited by an
agroterrorist. Direct infection of a large number of animals could be possible either by
inoculating the animals individually, or by placing animals that have been reared to
spread the disease within the same enclosures as other auctioned animals.33
Through quarantine and containment procedures, the Australian government has
been broadly successful preventing the accidental introduction of exotic foreign dis-
eases. This has meant that Australia has remained “endemic-free” from most agricultural
pathogens. However, a lack of previous exposure to these organisms, and therefore a
152 C. Ungerer and D. Rogers
Table 1
“List A” pathogens, host range, status in Australia36
pines and HPAI throughout other parts of the Southeast Asian region are two pathogens
that an agroterrorist could isolate with relative ease, and transport to Australia within a
short period of time.
Second, terrorists could obtain the organism from a laboratory or biological collec-
tion agency where security is less stringent. Most Southeast Asian countries maintain
hospital and university laboratories where stocks of biological pathogens are available.
Security at many of these establishments remains less than adequate. A third and less
likely possibility is that an organism suitable for an agroterrorist attack could be ob-
tained from a state-sponsor who shares a similar worldview as the terrorist group.40
Previous studies on WMD terrorism have tended to dismiss or downplay the possibility
of states collaborating with terrorist groups because of the clear repercussions for any
country seen to be assisting a terrorist organization in the acquisition or use of WMD.41
However, in the current climate, with numerous “rogue” states flouting non-proliferation
norms, it would be imprudent to dismiss the possibility completely. Moreover, supply-
ing biological agents to kill animals as opposed to humans is less likely to elicit a
military response from the targeted state.
154 C. Ungerer and D. Rogers
agroterrorist attack could be perpetrated leads many foreign analysts to believe that if an
attack was to occur, it would most likely begin in several locations simultaneously,
overwhelming the response capacity of the authorities.46
Although all three scenarios have the potential to cause damage to any population, this
section will address the first and second scenarios, as the third could be interpreted as an
act of human bioterrorism.
There are a number of zoonotic pathogens that could cause significant economic
disruption to Australia as well as considerable human mortality. One such disease is Rift
Valley Fever (RVF). RVF is an arthropod-borne disease primarily of sheep, cattle, and
goats. It has a 100 percent mortality rate for young animals, as well as the ability to
cause severe illness and sometimes death in adult animals. Along with livestock, it can
be transmitted to a number of domestic animals that can act as reservoirs, such as cats
and dogs. RVF can also be transmitted to humans by certain species of mosquitoes
(many of which are found in Australia) where it can cause severe illness and sometimes
death.52 Although introduction of a pathogen like RVF would be of concern to authori-
ties, it is difficult to see that it would cause the same level of panic and hysteria as a
true bioterrorist attack or a purely agricultural attack using a more dangerous pathogen.
A pathogen that would cause more significant economic destabilization to a primary
producer nation such as Australia is FMD. Following the outbreak of FMD in the United
Kingdom in 2001, many governments around the world stepped up preparations for a
possible FMD incident, conducting various simulations and response-preparedness exer-
cises.53 The Australian government was no exception, with the Productivity Commission
undertaking a study into the impact of an FMD outbreak within Australia. Various au-
thorities have also taken part in exercises to test the ability of government agencies to
respond to such an event.54 Of particular concern in the case of the U.K. FMD outbreak
was the multidimensional impact of the disease that saw economic disruption occur
across a number of related industries including supermarkets, restaurants, and tourist
facilities.55
The Australian Productivity Commission study considered 3 scenarios—a small single-
point outbreak, a medium-sized outbreak impacting 2 States taking 6 months to control
and eradicate, and a large multipoint outbreak taking up to 12 months to control and
eradicate. The Commission found that the economic losses to the export and domestic
markets sustained in a single-point outbreak would be close to $5.7 billion, whereas a
multipoint outbreak could cost up to $12.8 billion. It was also found that a multipoint
outbreak would result in a $2 billion reduction to Australia’s GDP in the first year, and
$8–$13 billion over 10 years. The report showed that employment levels were reduced
within livestock-related industries, food-processing industries, as well as industries sup-
plying inputs to livestock production by 30%, 30% and 2%, respectively. The total cost
to tourism was estimated to be over $300 million.56
Direct economic losses that would be sustained from such an event include the
costs of containing and destroying disease-ridden agricultural commodities, the resulting
loss in production, the costs of purchasing drugs, vaccines, pesticides, as well as the
costs associated with diagnostic and veterinarian services. The loss of international trade
through sanctions and tighter quarantine measures, the loss of contracts and a reduction
The Threat of Agroterrorism to Australia 157
in domestic consumption would also occur as a result of the introduction of any infec-
tious disease into the Australian agricultural sector.57 The indirect economic costs and
multiplier effects include losses to the feed industry due to decreased domestic require-
ments, losses to the transportation industry due to decreased movement of animals and
animal products, losses to the retail industry due to falls in domestic consumption as
well as increased supply costs, and potential losses to the tourism industry due to the
stigma associated with an outbreak of an infectious disease.58
The report also outlined the social consequences that a FMD outbreak would have
on the Australian community. It found that financial stress and hardship, especially in
rural communities, would be one of the main adverse social impacts. These two factors
could then in turn result in increased rates of depression and other psychological prob-
lems, substance abuse, other more serious health problems such as heart attack and
stroke, increased relationship breakdown and abuse, and the loss of cohesiveness in
particular communities resulting in the collapse of entire towns.59 The resolution of these
social consequences could take much longer than the simple eradication of the disease.
The overall consequences of a successful agroterrorist attack on Australia would
depend on a number of other factors. First, the severity of a particular disease, the host
range, and the size of the infected geographical area would determine the extent of the
economic impact to the nation. Second, the ability of the government authorities to
successfully contain and deal with the outbreak would influence the social and political
impact of an agroterrorist attack. Finally, the involvement of the media in broadcasting
images associated with an attack could affect public morale and hence their response to
such an event.
Although highlighting the aforementioned costs is appropriate for accidental out-
breaks, the nature of a terrorist attack itself could result in a number of other conse-
quences. A bioterrorist attack, whether directed at humans or agriculture, would result in
a greater degree of fear and anxiety among the general public.60 There would be sus-
tained political pressure on governments to respond to such an attack, in which case
failure to do so could create a climate of no confidence in government authorities that
may lead to a breakdown of law and order. As has been evident recently, the failure or
inaccuracy of intelligence agencies to predict and prevent terrorist attacks can result in
significant political backlash.61
Other measures that the Australian government and industry have instigated to re-
duce the impact of outbreaks of foreign diseases include increased border surveillance
and control,69 capacity building in neighboring countries to increase their ability to detect
and control outbreaks of infectious disease,70 and exercises to simulate disease outbreak
scenarios and test the response of relevant parties.71 Again, although these measures
build Australia’s capacity to respond to accidental introduction of foreign diseases, they
have done little to reduce the risk of deliberate and covert agroterrorism.
As illustrated in the aforementioned scenario, border surveillance can be overcome
by individuals with the intent of importing pathogens into the country, especially the
small amounts that would be required to instigate an attack. Although capacity building
reduces the pool of environmentally available agricultural pathogens, it does not eradi-
cate these diseases from all affected countries, nor can it address other possible avenues
for terrorists to obtain these pathogens. And although simulating accidental outbreaks
can assist authorities in preparing for and dealing with such an event, a real outbreak
brings with it many other factors that cannot be accounted for in such an exercise. Nor
can an exercise address the public response to a terrorist attack against Australian infra-
structure.
information sharing between the six national intelligence agencies and local first-re-
sponders such as doctors and veterinarians continues to be compartmentalized and less
than fully effective.72 Biosecurity in Australia is improving, but border security controls
and the security of individual farms remain less than adequate. The fact that a deter-
mined terrorist group could damage Australian agricultural industries and the Australian
economy, along with instilling fear and instability within the Australian population, em-
phasizes the need for the Australian authorities to increase domestic preparedness for
such an attack.
Given the current situation, what can the Australian government do to mitigate the
threat of agroterrorism? Three broad policy options appear relevant.
1. Australian authorities must be better able to identify and control the movement
of dangerous pathogens between Southeast Asia and Australia. A system similar
to the Co-operative Threat Reduction program between the United States and
Russia (which provides for the security of nuclear materials) should be put in
place between Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Such a program would provide accounting controls over stocks of dangerous
pathogens in veterinary hospitals, research laboratories, and universities. This
system would also need to incorporate an early warning alert system for disease
outbreaks and better border security screening measures.
2. Australia must address the issue of information sharing between national intelli-
gence agencies, state government agencies, and first-responders. Veterinary stu-
dents at Australian universities should be made more aware of dangerous patho-
gens that could be used in an agroterrorist attack. Intelligence briefings should
be provided to farmers, auction yards, and other frontline groups by the national
threat assessment agencies on a more regular basis. Overall, working-level co-
operation between intelligence agencies, law enforcement agencies, and agri-
businesses needs to improve.
3. Australia must work closely with other intelligence agencies in Southeast Asia
and globally to profile individual terrorists or groups with an interest in acquir-
ing and using biological weapons. Australia needs to have a better understand-
ing of the capabilities and intentions of groups who would seek to target agri-
cultural industries for political gain.
Implementing these reforms would not be expensive. Australia has already increased
funding for counterterrorism operations by over $400 million since 2001; however, very
little additional funding has been directed toward agricultural emergency preparedness
and response mechanisms. The current focus in Australia on military counterterrorism
capabilities, such as the chemical and biological Incident Response Unit at the Holsworthy
Army base in Sydney, are ill-suited to the task of identifying and responding to the
threat of deliberate disease outbreaks in the agricultural sector. For prudential reasons,
the Australian government will need to redress this imbalance.
Notes
1. Quoted in Muhammad Q. Islam and Wasim N. Shahin, “Applying Economic Methodol-
ogy to the War on Terrorism,” Forum for Social Economics (2002), pp. 7–26 as reported on
AOL News (http://www.aol.com).
2. Richard Falkenrath, Richard Newman, and Brad Thayer, America’s Achilles’ Heel: Nuclear,
The Threat of Agroterrorism to Australia 161
Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack, BCSIA Studies in International Security
(Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998).
3. Alexander Downer, Security in an Unstable World, Speech delivered to the National Press
Club 26 June 2003. See (http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/2003/030626_unstableworld.html).
4. Peter Chalk, The Bio-Terrorist Threat to Agricultural Livestock and Produce. Testi-
mony presented before the Government Affairs Committee of the United States Senate on 19
November 2003.
5. Corrie Brown, “Agro-Terrorism: A cause for alarm,” The Monitor: Nonproliferation,
Demilitarisation, and Arms Control, 5(1–2) (1999), p. 6.
6. Highlighted in a number of papers including Mark Wheelis, “Biological Attack on Agri-
culture: Low-Tech, High Impact Bioterrorism,” BioScience. 52(7) (2002), p. 569 and Rocco Casagrande,
“Biological Terrorism Targeted at Agriculture: The Threat to U.S. National Security,” The Non-
proliferation Review, Fall–Winter (2000), p. 92.
7. Lecture given by ASIO Director-General, Dennis Richardson, University of Queensland,
11 October 2004.
8. The focus of the article will be on the deliberate use and consequences of foreign ani-
mal diseases (FADs) in an agroterrorist attack. It is acknowledged that to undertake an agroterrorist
attack on livestock will have far fewer constraints than one involving an attack on crops. How-
ever, crop-based agroterrorism will be discussed in more general terms throughout the article.
9. The structure and methodology of this paper is based on a recent study of the agroterrorist
threat in the United States. See Peter Chalk, Hitting America’s Soft Underbelly: The Potential
Threat of Deliberate Biological Attacks Against the U.S. Agricultural and Food Industry (Santa
Monica CA: RAND Corporation, 2004). Available at (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/
RAND_MG135.pdf).
10. Anne Kohnen, Responding to the Threat of Agroterrorism: Specific Recommendations
for the United States Department of Agriculture, BCSIA Discussion Paper 2000-29 (John F.
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2000).
11. Ibid.
12. Jason Pate and Gavin Cameron, “Covert Biological Weapons Attacks against Agricul-
tural Targets: Assessing the Impact against U.S. Agriculture,” in Arnold M. Howitt and Robyn L.
Pangi, eds., Countering Terrorism: Dimensions for Preparedness (BCSIA, Cambridge: MIT Press,
2003), pp. 95–218.
13. The Monterey Institute WMD Terrorism Database, Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Available at (http://www.cns.miis.edu).
14. Statistics available from the World Bank Group at (http://www.worldbank.org/data.
15. Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Agriculture: Characteristics of Australian Farms,” Year
Book Australia 2003 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004). Available at (http://www.abs.gov.au/
ausstats).
16. Ibid.
17. Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Agriculture: Employment in agriculture,” Year Book
Australia 2003 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004). Available at (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats).
18. Based on Labour Force figures found at the Australian Bureau of Statistics (http://www.abs.gov.au/
ausstats).
19. Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Agriculture: Gross Value of Agricultural Commodities
Produced,” Year Book Australia 2003 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004). Available at (http://
www.abs.gov.au/ausstats).
20. Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Agriculture: Livestock,” Year Book Australia 2003 (Australian
Bureau of Statistics 2004). Available at (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats).
21. Ibid.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid.
25. From the author’s interviews with employees of AusVet and the Australian Cattle Council.
162 C. Ungerer and D. Rogers