The Math of Rajya Sabha elections

After a nail biting finish to the Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat, everyone is talking about the
quota of votes. Quota is the minimum number of votes required to be elected. The math of the
Rajya Sabha election is complex.

The Upper House of parliament is called the Rajya Sabha (RS). It is also known as the ‘Council
of States’ since the members of Rajya Sabha are elected by the legislators of state assemblies.
Each state has a fixed number of RS seats and 1/3rd of them come up for election every 2
years. Article 80 of the constitution stipulates the maximum size of the house. The number of
elected RS members from the States & UTs cannot be more than 238. Apart from the elected
members, 12 members can be nominated by the President of India. Currently there are 233
elected members and 12 nominated members.
 The Election Process

The system of election of members to the Rajya Sabha is by proportional representation by

means of the single transferable vote (STV). The STV system is similar to the one followed in
the election to the President of India and members of the legislative council in states. The vote is
transferred from one candidate to another in any of the two situations mentioned below.

• When a candidate obtains more than what is required for his success and therefore has an unnecessary
surplus
• When a candidate polls so few votes that he has absolutely no chance and therefore the votes
nominating him are liable to be wasted

In STV, each voter ranks the list of candidates in order of preference. In the ballot paper, they
place a ‘1’ beside their most preferred candidate, a ‘2’ beside their second most preferred, and so
on. The completed ballot paper therefore contains the candidates in the order of preference as

marked by the voter.

The Quota

The minimum number of valid votes required for a candidate to be declared elected is called the
quota. The quota calculation depends on the number of seats to be filled.

Scenario 1:

At an election where only one seat is to be filled, every ballot paper is deemed to be of the value
of one and the quota is calculated by adding the values credited to all the candidates and dividing
the total by two and adding one to the quotient, ignoring the remainder, if any, and the resulting
number is the quota. It has to be

For instance, if the total number of votes polled is 65, then the quota is

In this case, for any candidate to be elected, he has to secure a minimum of 33 first preferential
votes to be elected in the first round.

Scenario 2:

At an election where more than one seat is to be filled, every ballot paper is deemed to be of
the value of 100 and the quota is determined by adding the values credited to all the candidates
and dividing the total by a number which exceeds by one the number of vacancies to be filled
and adding one to the quotient ignoring the remainder, if any, and the resulting number is the
quota.

For instance, if 3 candidates are to be elected and the total number of voters who participated in
the poll is 176, the quota is

In this case, a candidate has to get a minimum of 4401 votes or first preferential vote of 45 voters
to be elected in the first round.

The Counting Process

If none of the candidates get the required quota of first preference votes, then a process of vote
transfer takes place, successively eliminating those who get the least number of first preferential
votes.
For instance, in an election to fill one vacancy, there are four candidates in the fray and the total
number of valid votes is 1235. According to the STV formula, the quota of first preference votes
required for victory is 618 ignoring the remainder.

In the first round, any candidate securing a minimum of 618 first preferential votes gets
elected. In this example, none of the four candidates secures the quota. Hence there is no winner
after the first round and the process of vote transfer takes place. At the same time, the candidate

with the least number of first preference votes is eliminated.

Since Wesley is the candidate with the least first preference votes, he is eliminated. When he is
eliminated, his votes are transferred to the other three candidates. The transfer takes place in
proportion of the 2nd preference votes received by the other three candidates in those ballots
with a first preference vote to Wesley. In this example, out of the 235 ballots with a first
preference votes to Wesley, 170 of them had Swarajyam as 2nd preference, 35 of them had Babu
Rao as the 2nd preference and the remaining 30 had Ramesh Naidu as the 2nd Preference. Hence
the transfer takes place in that proportion.

After round two (after transfer of votes), Swarajyam has 620 votes, which is two more than the
required quota. Hence she is declared elected and the remaining three are eliminated. This
process of transfer continues until a clear winner is found. Sometimes, the process can run into
multiple rounds to find the winner.

The case of Ahmed Patel’s election

In the biennial elections to 3 seats of Rajya Sabha from Gujarat, the total number of voters who
participated in the election was 176. Since the election is to more than one seat, the value of each

vote is 100. Hence the quota for any candidate to get elected is the following.

So every candidate had to get the first preferential vote of a minimum of 45 voters to be elected
in the first round. But since the Election Commission rejected the votes of two Congress MLAs,
the number of voters came down to 174 and the quota came down to 4351
After the rejection of two votes, each candidate had to get the first preferential vote of a
minimum of 44 voters to be elected in the first round. Since Ahmed Patel secured the first
preferential votes of 44 MLAs, he secured a total of 4400 votes and was declared elected in the
first round. If the EC had not rejected the votes of two Congress MLAs, the counting would have
gone into the second round. The contest would have been a closer one and Ahmed Patel would
have still won as explained in this story in The Hindu.

Source: The Hindu

Gujarat Rajya Sabha polls: Did the two invalidated votes

matter?
Counting in the Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat did not go into the second round.
Three of the four candidates were elected on the basis of first preference votes after
two votes were invalidated. Had these votes not been invalidated, would Ahmed
Patel of the Congress still have won? An examination.

Ahmed Patel of the Congress may have won the Rajya Sabha election in Gujarat even
if the two invalidated votes cast in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party had been
allowed, given the peculiarities of the system of single transferable vote.

In fact, what gave Mr. Patel the edge was his unassailable lead over his BJP rival. If
he had got one vote less, it was possible that the third BJP nominee would have sailed
through, depending on how many second preference votes he gathered.
There were four candidates in the fray for three seats, resulting in the necessity for
polling. As many as 176 votes were cast by Gujarat legislators, and two of them being
declared invalid by the Election Commission. As a result, the election was over in the
first round of counting itself, with BJP leaders Amit Shah and Smriti Irani polling 46
votes each, and Ahmed Patel 44. The losing BJP candidate Balwantsinh Rajput
received 38 votes.

How was the result arrived at?

As 176 votes were cast, the qualifying number for a candidate to win on the basis of
first preference votes would have been 45. But this came down to 44 because the total
number of valid votes was reduced to 174. Therefore, Mr. Patel sailed through with
the requisite votes in the first round itself.

Candidate First Value Result

preference of
votes Votes*
(FPV)

Amit Shah 46 4600 Elected

(BJP)

Smriti Irani 46 4600 Elected

(BJP)

Ahmed 44 4400 Elected

Patel (INC)

Balwantsinh 38 3800 Lost

Rajput
(BJP)

174 17400

Invalidated 2

Total votes 176 17600

polled
Now, what would have been the scenario had the two votes been allowed to be
counted?
The election would have gone into the second round, and the counting process in the
system of proportional representation based on single transferable vote would have
kicked in. This is how the system works.
The votes are given a value of 100 in the first round. The total votes cast, therefore,
would be worth 17,600. To qualify, a candidate needs to get one point more than the
quotient obtained by dividing the total value by the number of seats at stake plus one.
That is, 17600/4 = 4400 + 1= 4401. A candidate, thus, needs a value of 4,401 to win.
Going by the results, Mr. Shah and Ms. Irani received 4,600 points each and won
comfortably. If Mr. Rajpat had got 40 votes instead of the final figure of 38, his votes
would have been worth 4,000. Mr. Patel, with 4,400, would have been ahead of him,
but a single point short of qualifying.

First First Value Result

Round preference of
votes Votes*
(FPV)

Amit Shah 46 4600 Elected

(BJP)

Smriti Irani 46 4600 Elected

(BJP)

Ahmed 44 4400 Remains

Patel (INC) in fray#

Balwantsinh 40 4000 Remains

Rajput in fray#
(BJP)
This would have taken the counting into the second round. In this round, the ‘surplus’
votes of the two winning candidates will have to be distributed to the remaining
candidates. Mr. Shah and Ms. Irani each had a surplus of 199 votes (4,600 as against
the required 4,401). How are these votes distributed?
The second or third preference votes, if any, found on the ballot papers in which they
were marked as first choice, would be taken into account. Assuming that all the 92
ballots that marked Mr. Shah and Ms. Irani as their first preference contained a second
preference, it is possible that these were in favour of Mr. Rajput. The surplus of one
candidate (chosen by draw of lots, as the original votes of the first two candidates are
the same) will be transferred first, and, if no one has reached the qualifying value yet,
the second candidate’s surplus will also be transferred.
The value of a transferred vote, it must be pointed out, is not the same 100 given to an
original first preference vote. It is calculated on a different formula. It is arrived at by
dividing the surplus value by the number of ‘unexhausted ballot papers’. That is, if all
46 of Mr. Shah’s principal voters had a second preference for another candidate, each
of that will have a value of 199/46 = 4.32. Under election rules, the remainder is to be
ignored; so each vote has a value of 4. The value will be the same for the surplus
transferred from Ms. Irani to Mr. Rajput (again assuming all 46 marked a second
preference for Mr. Rajput).
If even one of them had marked a second preference for Mr. Patel, he would go
through as his tally would go up from 4,400 to 4,404, as against the required 4,401.
However, this is not a likely scenario as all of Mr. Shah’s principal voters can be
expected to have favoured Mr. Rajput as their second choice to boost his prospects
and to defeat Mr. Patel.
So, when the first lot of 46 second preference votes are transferred to Mr. Rajput, he
would receive 46 x 4 = 184 points. A similar lot drawn from the votes cast principally
for Ms. Irani with Mr. Rajput as second choice, would also have the same value.
Therefore, Mr. Rajput gains 184 + 184 = 368 points. This will be added to his original
vote value.
So his tally would be 4,000 + 368 = 4,368. But, his vote will still be short of Mr.
Patel’s vote value of 4,400.
The scenario is explained in the table below:
 Second Votes Multiplier Value
Round
(Scenario
1)

Ahmed 0 0
Patel
(INC)~

Rajput 46 4 184
(BJP,
surplus
from
Shah)

Rajput 46 4 184
(BJP,
surplus
from
Irani)

Rajput 368
Total in
second
round

Patel 4400+0=4400
Overall
 Second Votes Multiplier Value
Round
(Scenario
1)

Rajput 4000+368=4368
Overall

In a single transferable vote, it is possible to have any number of rounds of counting,

but in this case, it has to be ended here, as the ballots of the two qualified candidates
have likely been exhausted. Mr. Patel would be ahead of Mr. Rajput, and with all
ballots getting exhausted, he would have been declared elected.
Therefore, Mr. Rajput has to be eliminated from the contest, leaving Mr. Patel the
winner of the third seat, with a tally of 4,400 against the losing candidate’s 4,368.
What is the highest possible surplus value the BJP could have created?
The answer is 396. This is why the four-vote or 400-point lead that Mr. Patel had in
the original votes proved to be unassailable.
How is the figure of 396 arrived at?
Let us take a scenario in which only one second preference vote has gone to Mr.
Rajput in the Amit Shah parcel of votes. Mr. Shah, remember, has a surplus value of
199. There is a crucial counting rule that says the value of a transferred vote remains
the same if the total value of such transferred votes is equal to or less than the surplus.
This means that one vote could be worth 100, but two votes cannot be 200, which is
higher than the surplus value of 199.
Therefore, if there is only one second preference vote in Mr. Shah’s parcel (the rest
not marking any second preference at all), its value will be 100, and only this value
will be transferred to the recipient of the second choice vote.
If there are two second preference votes in Mr. Shah’s parcel, its value will be
calculated by dividing the surplus votes by the number of unexhausted votes. 199/2 =
99.5. Ignoring the remainder, the two transferred second preference votes will have a
value of 99x2 = 198.
If it is assumed that only two of the 92 principal voters of both Mr. Shah and Mr. Irani
have second preference votes in favour of Mr. Rajput, he will get 198 x 2 = 396
points.

Second Votes Multiplier Value

Round
(Best
case
scenario)

Ahmed 0 0
Patel
(INC)~

Rajput 2 99@ 198

(BJP,
surplus
from
Shah)

Rajput 2 99@ 198

(BJP,
surplus
from
Irani)

Rajput 396
Total in
second
round
 Second Votes Multiplier Value
Round
(Best
case
scenario)

Patel 4400+0=4400
Overall

Rajput 4000+396=
Overall 4396

If it is three, each vote will be valued at 199/3 = 66, and if it is four, it will be 199/4 =
49, and so on. In all these scenarios, the total value of second preference votes
transferred from both candidates will be 396 or less.
This is why the 400-point lead of Mr. Ahmed Patel became unassailable. However, if
he had obtained even one vote less than the 44 he got, that is, if he had a total value of
4,300, the transferred votes would have enabled Mr. Rajput to finish with more than
4,300 and thereby win the seat. Ultimately, after the invalidation of two votes, Mr.
Patel had a clear six-vote or 600-point lead.

Source: Rajya Sabha

The computation in the preliminary process is as under:The returning

officer first deals with the covers containing the postal ballotpapers,
and then opens the ballot boxes, counts the ballot papers and sorts
outand rejects the ballot papers found invalid. A ballot paper is deemed
invalid onwhich—(a)the figure 1 is not marked; or(b)the figure 1 is set
opposite the names of more than one candidate oris so placed as to
render it doubtful to which candidate it is intendedto apply; or(c)the
figure 1 and some other figures are set opposite the name of thesame
candidate; or(d)there is any mark or writing by which the elector can
beidentified.104After rejecting the invalid papers, the returning officer
(a) arranges theremaining ballot papers in parcels according to the first
preference recorded foreach candidate; (b) counts and records the
number of papers in each parceland the total number; and (c) credits to
each candidate the value of the papersin his parcel. He then determines
the quota as mentioned above.If at the end of any count the value of
ballot papers credited to a candidateis equal to, or greater than the
quota, that candidate is declared elected.
If the value of the ballot papers credited to a candidate is greater than
the quota, the "surplus" is transferred to the "continuing candidates"
indicated in the ballot papers of that candidate as being next in order of
the elector's preference.106 "Surplus" means the number by which the
value of the votes, original and transferred, of any candidate exceeds
the quota. "Continuing candidate" means any candidate not elected
and not excluded from the poll at any given time.107 If more than one
candidate have a surplus, the largest surplus is dealt with first and the
others in order of magnitude, but every surplus arising on the first
count is dealt with before the one arising on the second count and so
on. Where there are more surpluses than one to distribute and two or
more surpluses are equal, regard is had to the "original votes" of each
candidate and the candidate for whom most original votes are recorded
has his surplus first distributed; and if the values of their original votes
are equal, the returning officer decides by lot which candidate shall
have his surplus first distributed.108 "Original vote", in relation to any
candidate, means a vote derived from a ballot paper on which a first
preference is recorded for such candidate.109 If the surplus of any
candidate to be transferred arises from original votes only, the
returning officer examines all the papers in the parcel belonging to that
candidate, divides the "unexhausted papers" into sub-parcels according
to the next preferences recorded thereon and makes a separate sub-
parcel of the exhausted papers.110 "Exhausted paper" means a ballot
paper on which no further preference is recorded for a continuing
candidate, provided that a paper shall be deemed to have become
exhausted whenever—(a) the names of two or more candidates,
whether continuing or not, are marked with the same figure and are
next in order of preference; or (b) the name of the candidate next in
order of preference, whether continuing or not, is marked by a figure
not falling consecutively after some other figure on the ballot paper or
by two or more figures.111 The returning officer has to ascertain the
value of the papers in each sub-parcel and of all the unexhausted
papers. If the value of the unexhausted papers is equal or less than the
surplus, he transfers all the unexhausted papers at the value at which
they were received by the candidate whose surplus is being
transferred. If the value of the unexhausted papers is greater than the
surplus, he transfers the sub-parcels of unexhausted papers at a
reduced value which is ascertained by dividing the surplus by the total
number of unexhausted papers.112 The returning officer has to
transfer the surplus arising from transferred as well as original votes
according to the prescribed procedure.113 If after transfer of all
surpluses the number of candidates elected is less than the required
number, the returning officer excludes the candidate lowest on the poll
and distributes his unexhausted papers among the continuing
candidates according to the next preferences recorded thereon.114
The papers containing original votes of an excluded candidate are first
transferred, at the value of one hundred.115 The papers containing
transferred votes of an excluded candidate are then transferred in the
order of the transfers in which, and at the value at which, he has
obtained them.116 If, as a result of the transfer of papers, the value of
votes obtained by a candidate is equal to or greater than the quota, the
count then is completed without any further transfer.117 The process
is repeated on the successive exclusion one after another of the
candidates lowest on the poll until such vacancy is filled by the election
of a candidate with the quota.118 When the number of continuing
candidates is reduced to the number of vacancies remaining unfilled,
the continuing candidates are declared elected.119 When only one
vacancy remains unfilled and the value of the papers of some one
candidate exceeds the total value of the papers of all the other
continuing candidates together with any surplus not transferred, that
candidate is declared elected.120 When only one vacancy remains
unfilled and there are only two continuing candidates and each of them
has the same value of votes and no surplus remains capable of transfer,
the returning officer decides by lot which of them shall be excluded;
and after excluding him declares the other candidate elected.