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THE PTI government marked its first anniversary on Aug 18. The past year has
witnessed an incessant as well as intense debate on the performance or non-
performance of the new government with regards to the economy.
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Therefore, today efforts are made to free the judiciary from the control of the
executive, so that the judges may give decisions fearlessly. In India, during the
British rule, the Deputy Commissioner or the Collector had both executive as well
judicial powers.
Consequently, he had sometimes to give wrong decision under the influence of high
officials and ministers. In the new Constitution of India under the Directive
Principles of State Policy, clear directions have been given to the government that
it should make efforts to separate judiciary from executive.
Now in most of the states of India, the judiciary has been made free from the
control of the executive, at the district level, and judicial powers have been
taken away from the hands of the Deputy Commissioner. These judicial powers have
been given to the Additional District Magistrate. There is no control of executive
over the High Court and the Supreme Court. Therefore, the judiciary enjoys complete
independence in India.
7. No practice after retirement:
The judge should not be allowed to do legal practice after retirement, because his
previous colleagues would favour him in the cases in which he appears as a lawyer.
In Article 220 of the Indian Constitution it is mentioned that no person who after
the commencement of this Constitution has held office as a permanent Judge of a
High Court shall plead or act in any court or before any authority in India except
the Supreme Court and the High Courts.
Unfortunately, much of this discussion has been grounded neither in fact nor in
economic precepts, and has thus not only been very non-illuminating � generating
more heat than light � but has also caused confusion and deepened the prevailing
uncertainty.
For some among the �commentariat� engaged in this shrill national debate, this is
partly deliberate and agenda-driven, deflecting criticism from PML-N�s poor
management of the economy or scoring political points. For many others, the
arguments are either misinformed, lacking context or downright alarmist. The
�punditocracy� is most off the mark in assessing or discussing critical parameters
of the economic situation: the fall in the rupee, the knock-on impact on the stock
market as well as on growth and inflation, and the sharp increase in the country�s
debt stock. We will examine the first three of these.
�Devaluation�: The exchange rate is a �price� determined, like in any other non-
restricted market, by the interaction of supply and demand. Viewed from this
perspective, examining the demand and supply of dollars will put the movement of
the rupee over the last year in context.
In July 2018, at the beginning of fiscal year 2018-19, the situation with regards
to the country�s external payments for the year ahead (the demand for dollars) was
as follows:
The gross external financing requirement was around $27 billion. Predetermined
short-term outflows (foreign exchange swaps, central bank liabilities) not included
in the above total amounted to a further $7bn. Hence, the total demand for dollars
for 2018-19 was circa $34bn. (It is important to realise this estimation of demand
did not include the need to build foreign exchange reserves by at least a further
$6bn to $8bn at the time.)
On the supply side, the foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP on July 1, 2018,
amounted to $9.8bn. During the course of the year, this would likely be augmented
by foreign exchange inflows from FDI and external loans, but the timing as well as
magnitude of these remained highly uncertain without the IMF. Hence, as things
stood for all practical purposes, there was an excess demand of over $24bn in the
country�s exchange market.
Given the unprecedented size of the gap between the supply and demand of dollars,
there should be no mystery why the rupee crashed when the SBP withdrew its support
(because its foreign exchange reserves were depleting untenably). This is a repeat,
albeit on a much smaller scale, of what happened in Thailand and Indonesia during
the East Asian crisis in 1997. And yet senior commentators, including eminent
economists, practitioners, and opinion influencers, have continued to rail against
the government�s decision to �devalue� the rupee, as if there was a choice.
A final point on the rupee to address the deliberate confusion being spread by
those elements wishing to deflect criticism from the atrocious economic management
of the PML-N, which was directly responsible for this crisis. The country�s foreign
exchange reserves had already fallen from $16.1bn to $9.8bn in 2017-18 � before the
PTI government took over. In fact, in July 2018, one month before the formation of
the PTI government, there was a near-consensus in the financial markets that the
rupee would fall to at least Rs180 to Rs200 per dollar. This is as clear an
indication as any that the mess had already been created before the PTI government
took over.
While policy missteps by the government have compounded the situation in many ways,
the sharp adjustment of the exchange rate is at the root cause of the evaporation
of confidence, the spike in inflation as well as policy interest rates, and the
consequent slowdown in the economy.
Growth: Another pervasive criticism of the government is that economic growth has
stalled. With the country undergoing its severest economic crisis on record, this
expectation is completely misplaced when viewed in the context of multiple crisis
episodes, whether across a range of countries or Pakistan�s own experience.
To put this in perspective, Greece�s economy shrank over 29 per cent between 2008
and 2016, while Ireland faced an economic contraction of almost 10pc in 2008-09 in
the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Spain�s economy shrunk by over 9pc
between 2009-13. Pakistan�s own experience of the 2008 crisis is of economic growth
slowing down sharply to only 0.4pc in 2009, with large-scale manufacturing
contracting 4.2pc.�
None of this is intended to suggest that the government has handled the situation
without reproach, or that there is little it can do other than to �wait it out�.
The economic team has done poorly on some fronts, and is choosing not to rectify
some egregious policy missteps. However, much of the criticism the government has
faced in the past year with regards to the economy is misplaced and not based on
facts, or is out of context.